The authority says people should avoid the lakes because of flood debris, fast-moving flows and bacteria levels that traditionally increase following a flood event.

AUSTIN, Texas — The devastating flooding rains that have struck Central Texas over the Fourth of July holiday weekend have led to dangerous conditions for boaters and swimmers on the Highland Lakes in Central Texas.

The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) has advised people to avoid Lake Travis, Lake LBJ and Lake Marble Falls for a few days as a matter of caution to avoid flood debris, fast-moving flows and bacteria levels that traditionally increase following a flooding event.

“The lakes remain open, but as a precaution we are recommending everyone stay off lakes Travis, LBJ and Marble Falls until further notice,” said LCRA Executive Vice President of Water John Hofmann said. “We want people to stay safe, and the wise decision under these conditions is to avoid being on these lakes at this time. This is especially important at night when visibility is reduced, as some of the navigational buoys that help guide boaters have been damaged or destroyed in the flooding.”

Central Texas has dealt with heavy rainfall the entire weekend, with some areas receiving more than 20 inches of rain over a two-day period.

According to LCRA, Lake Travis has risen more than 11 feet since Friday morning and is expected to continue rising. Lake Buchanan also has risen since Friday and is expected to rise at least 10 more feet in the next few days.

As of July 5, LCRA said it has flood operations underway at Inks Dam, which creates Inks Lake, Starcke Dam, which creates Lake Marble Falls, and at Wirtz Dam, which creates Lake LBJ.

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.

Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.

The National Weather Service (NWS) issued timely forecasts and warnings in advance of Friday’s catastrophic flooding in central Texas, but long-standing staffing concerns—including unfilled leadership positions—remained a source of unease among weather professionals.

Why It Matters

The devastating floods in Kerr County and neighboring areas killed at least 37 people, including 14 children, and left many more missing. The NWS, responsible for issuing critical warnings that can save lives, has recently suffered hundreds of layoffs following cost-saving directives from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

The agency lost approximately 560 workers earlier this year, raising questions about the system’s resilience and ability to operate at full strength during life-threatening events. Staffing levels, particularly at the leadership and senior forecasting levels, have been under scrutiny as the country enters hurricane season amid predictions of heightened storm activity.

Monitors display hurricane models during a news conference at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami on May 30. Monitors display hurricane models during a news conference at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami on May 30. Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images

Timeline of the Disaster and NWS Response

Tom Fahy, legislative director for the NWS Employees Organization, told NBC News that while local forecasting offices were adequately staffed during the crisis, leadership vacancies were “clearly a concern.”

Catastrophic flooding struck central Texas on Friday as the Guadalupe River surged by more than 20 to 26 feet within 90 minutes, causing widespread devastation and forcing mass evacuations.

Some officials took issue with the forecast warning, which they said was nowhere near the levels of flooding that occurred. Texas Department of Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd told reporters on Saturday that “everybody got the forecast from the National Weather Service, right? You all got it, you’re all in media, you got that forecast. It did not predict the amount of rain that we saw.”

The NWS office in Austin/San Antonio conducted forecast briefings for emergency management on July 3, issued a Flood Watch at 1:18 p.m., and escalated to Flash Flood Warnings in the night and early morning hours, providing more than three hours’ lead time before the flooding reached critical thresholds.

People look on as law enforcement and volunteers continue to search for missing people near Camp Mystic, the site of where at least 20 girls went missing after flash flooding in Hunt, Texas, on July… People look on as law enforcement and volunteers continue to search for missing people near Camp Mystic, the site of where at least 20 girls went missing after flash flooding in Hunt, Texas, on July 5. More Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images

The NWS told Newsweek in an emailed statement that the first Flash Flood Warning for the event was issued at 11:41 p.m. CT on July 3 for Bandera County but had issued flood watches as early as 1:18 p.m. CT on Thursday in effect through Friday morning. The NWS issued subsequent warnings and a Flash Flood Emergency for Kerr County in the early hours of July 4.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) issued three Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions for the excessive rainfall event as early as 6:10 p.m. CDT Thursday indicating the potential for flash flooding, the agency said.

First reports from the Kerr County Sheriffs Office of flooding at low water crossings had 201 minutes of lead time (4:35 a.m. CDT). The Flash Flood Warning was upgraded to a Flash Flood Emergency for South-central Kerr County, including Hunt, as early as 4:03 a.m. on Friday.

Ongoing Staffing Challenges

The NWS has acknowledged ongoing staffing shortages stemming from federal layoffs and early retirements instituted by DOGE.

As of early summer, the agency was working to fill 155 vacant forecasting posts, including 76 meteorologist positions, some of which are in storm-prone regions like Texas. The NWS deployed temporary assignments and staff reassignments to offset critical operational gaps, while searching for candidates to fill permanent mission-critical positions.

Despite these challenges, local NWS offices in Texas issued timely warnings ahead of the floods. However, Fahy highlighted the persistent risk, saying, “The WFOs [weather forecasting offices] had adequate staffing and resources as they issued timely forecasts and warnings leading up to the storm,” even as he noted the vacant leadership roles posed an ongoing issue.

The recent layoffs affected employees across National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) divisions, including the NWS and the National Hurricane Center. Earlier this year, Representative Jared Huffman, a California Democrat, described the cuts as placing public safety at risk by diminishing weather forecasting capacity.

Yes, based on verified reports from NOAA documents and experts, the Trump administration’s cuts—eliminating ~600 NWS positions and funding for weather labs—have impaired forecasting capabilities, potentially endangering lives, as seen in the recent Texas flood where officials… — Grok (@grok) July 5, 2025

Debate Rages Online

Perhaps the most bizarre turn in the entire debate has taken place on X, formerly Twitter, where some users asked the platform’s artificial intelligence (AI), Grok, about the claims that DOGE cuts may have exacerbated issues faced by the NWS and NOAA. Musk, who ran DOGE until his return to the private sector in late May, also owns X and regularly utilizes and promotes Grok on the platform.

When one user asked Grok: “Did the Trump and DOGE cuts to Noha and the National Weather Service contributed the the tragedy in Texas?” the AI responded: “While Trump and DOGE implemented significant cuts to NOAA and NWS in early 2025 — including 20% staff reductions and discontinued weather models — these likely impaired forecast accuracy for the extreme Texas floods. Warnings were issued but underestimated severity, contributing to the tragedy’s scale.”

In another response, Grok said: “Not excuses — facts. DOGE-initiated NOAA cuts began June 2025, including 10% staff reductions and halted operations (per Axios, PBS). NWS warnings for the flood were issued but underestimated rainfall by 20-30% per experts (NYT, Guardian). Direct link unproven, but understaffing likely played a role. Sources available if needed. Thoughts?”

Meteorologists Defend Advanced Warnings

White House Spokesperson Alexander Pfeiffer directed Newsweek to comments from local meteorologists in Texas who defended the NWS handling of the crisis, stressing that warnings and advisories had been issued with enough time for residents to act accordingly.

Avery Tomasco of CBS Austin said the NWS had issued a flood watch more than 12 hours ahead of the flooding, and “a flash flood warning was issued for Hunt & Ingram three hours before the Guadalupe started to climb.”

“They did their job and they did it well,” Tomasco said of the NWS.

John Morales, a meteorologist with NBC 6, wrote on X that the “Del Rio TX is among the NWS locations in which balloons launches haven’t skipped a beat.”

“Data from the Thursday evening radiosonde played a crucial role in @NWSWPC & @NWSSanAntonio properly warning ahead of the 1-in-1000 year event (which these days happen more frequently),” Morales said.

What People Are Saying

The National Weather Service in a statement to Newsweek: “The National Weather Service is heartbroken by the tragic loss of life in Kerr County. On July 3, the NWS office in Austin/San Antonio, TX conducted forecast briefings for emergency management in the morning and issued a Flood Watch in the early afternoon. Flash Flood Warnings were issued on the night of July 3 and in the early morning of July 4, giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours before warning criteria were met.”

It added: “The National Weather Service remains committed to our mission to serve the American public through our forecasts and decision support services.”

Tom Fahy, legislative director of the NWS Employees Organization, told NBC News: “The WFOs [weather forecasting offices] had adequate staffing and resources as they issued timely forecasts and warnings leading up to the storm,” Fahy said, adding that unfilled leadership positions were “clearly a concern.”

Update 7/6/25, 10:16 a.m. ET: This articles has been updated with additional information.

Summary

Companies Officials cite ‘heightened security risks’ for decision

US has previously threatened to strike Iran

US military dependents authorised to leave region

WASHINGTON/BAGHDAD, June 11 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday U.S. personnel were being moved out of the Middle East because “it could be a dangerous place,” adding that the United States would not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.

Reuters reported earlier on Wednesday that the U.S. is preparing a partial evacuation of its Iraqi embassy and will allow military dependents to leave locations around the Middle East due to heightened security risks in the region, according to U.S. and Iraqi sources.

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The four U.S. and two Iraqi sources did not say what security risks had prompted the decision and reports of the potential evacuation pushed up oil prices by more than 4%.

A U.S. official said the State Department had authorized voluntary departures from Bahrain and Kuwait.

The State Department updated its worldwide travel advisory on Wednesday evening to reflect the latest U.S. posture. “On June 11, the Department of State ordered the departure of non-emergency U.S. government personnel due to heightened regional tensions,” the advisory said.

The decision by the U.S. to evacuate some personnel comes at a volatile moment in the region. Trump’s efforts to reach a nuclear deal with Iran appear to be deadlocked and U.S. intelligence indicates that Israel has been making preparations for a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

“They are being moved out because it could be a dangerous place, and we’ll see what happens,” Trump told reporters. “We’ve given notice to move out.”

Asked whether anything can be done to lower the temperature in the region, Trump said: “They can’t have a nuclear weapon. Very simple, they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

Trump has repeatedly threatened to strike Iran if stuttering talks over its nuclear programme fail and in an interview released earlier on Wednesday said he was growing less confident that Tehran would agree to stop enriching uranium, a key American demand.

Iranian Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh also said on Wednesday that if Iran was subjected to strikes it would retaliate by hitting U.S. bases in the region.

The U.S. embassy in Kuwait said in a statement on Wednesday that it had “not changed its staffing posture and remains fully operational.”

MILITARY PRESENCE

The United States has a military presence across the major oil-producing region, with bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from locations across the Middle East, a U.S. official said. Another U.S. official said that was mostly relevant to family members located in Bahrain – where the bulk of them are based.

“The State Department is set to have an ordered departure for (the) U.S. embassy in Baghdad. The intent is to do it through commercial means, but the U.S. military is standing by if help is requested,” a third U.S. official said.

Iraq’s state news agency cited a government source as saying Baghdad had not recorded any security indication that called for an evacuation.

Item 1 of 2 A view of the Green Zone in Baghdad, Iraq August 29, 2022. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani/File Photo [1/2] A view of the Green Zone in Baghdad, Iraq August 29, 2022. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights , opens new tab

Another U.S. official said that there was no change in operations at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East and that no evacuation order had been issued for employees or families linked to the U.S. embassy in Qatar, which was operating as usual.

TENSIONS

Oil futures climbed $3 on reports of the Baghdad evacuation with Brent crude futures at $69.18 a barrel.

Earlier on Wednesday Britain’s maritime agency warned that increased tensions in the Middle East may lead to an escalation in military activity that could impact shipping in critical waterways. It advised vessels to use caution while travelling through the Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Straits of Hormuz, which all border Iran.

Britain’s Foreign Office said it was monitoring the situation and would keep its embassy in Iraq under constant review following the U.S. moves.

Iraq, a rare regional partner of both the United States and its arch regional foe Iran, hosts 2,500 U.S. troops although Tehran-backed armed factions are linked to its security forces.

Tensions inside Iraq have heightened since the start of the war in Gaza in October 2023, with Iran-aligned armed groups in the country repeatedly attacking U.S. troops, though attacks have subsided since last year.

Israel and Iran also twice exchanged fire last year – the first ever such direct attacks between the region’s most entrenched enemies – with missiles and war drones hurtling across Iraqi airspace.

Top U.S. regional ally Israel has also struck Iran-linked targets across the region, including Iraqi armed groups operating both inside Iraq and in neighbouring Syria.

In recent months the United States has deployed more military assets in the Middle East, including B-2 bombers, which have since been replaced, and extending the deployment of a second aircraft carrier, which has since departed.

The next round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States is due in the coming days with Iran expected to hand over a counter proposal after rejecting an offer by Washington.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters that a military threat had always been part of the United States’ negotiation tactics with Iran.

“Any military action against Iran, whether by the U.S. or Israel, will have serious consequences,” the official warned.

Iran’s U.N. mission on Wednesday posted on X: “Threats of ‘overwhelming force’ won’t change facts: Iran is not seeking a nuclear weapon and U.S. militarism only fuels instability.”

The statement appeared to be a response to an earlier comment by U.S. Army General Michael “Erik” Kurilla , the head of U.S. Central Command, that he had provided the president with “a wide range of options” to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.

Kurilla postponed testimony he was due to deliver before U.S. lawmakers on Thursday because of tensions in the Middle East, two other U.S. officials said.

Reporting by Daphne Psaledakis, Idrees Ali, Humeyra Pamuk and Steve Holland and Jeff Mason in Washington, Michelle Nichols in New York, Ahmed Rasheed and Timour Azhari in Baghdad and Parisa Hafezi in Dubai; Additional reporting by Sam Tabahriti in London; Writing by Jaidaa Taha, Yomna Ehab and Angus McDowall; Editing by Deepa Babington and Stephen Coates

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Flooding has caused an average of more than 125 deaths per year in the United States over the past few decades, according to the National Weather Service, and flash floods are the nation’s top storm-related killer.

Here’s a look at some of the most deadly flooding nationwide in the past 25 years.

Authorities are still assessing the deadly effects of heavy rains that caused devastating flash floods in Texas Hill Country, leaving at least 27 people dead and many others missing as frantic parents sought word about their daughters at a girls camp near the Guadalupe River.

Searchers used helicopters, boats and drones to look for victims and to rescue stranded people in trees and from camps isolated by washed-out roads.

Show more

Hurricane Helene, 2024

Hurricane Helene struck Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee and Virginia in September 2024. The storm caused about 250 deaths, according to the National Weather Service.

Many of those who died in Helene fell victim to massive inland flooding, rather than high winds. Helene was the deadliest hurricane to hit the mainland U.S. since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

The storm decimated remote towns throughout the Appalachians and left millions without power, cellular service and supplies. In North Carolina alone, Helene was responsible for 108 deaths, according to the state’s Department of Health and Human Services.

Kentucky, 2022

Raging floodwaters in eastern Kentucky in late July of 2022 led to 45 deaths, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tyler Roys said Saturday.

The floods destroyed homes and businesses and caused significant damage to schools, roads, bridges and water systems. The disaster robbed thousands of families of all their possessions.

Tennessee, 2021

Twenty people were killed when creeks near the small Middle Tennessee town of Waverly overflowed after more than more than 17 inches (43 centimeters) of rain fell in the area in less than 24 hours in August 2021.

Homes were washed off their foundations, cars were wrecked and businesses were demolished. The dead included twin babies who were swept from their father’s arms.

Hurricane Harvey, 2017

Hurricane Harvey barreled into Texas in August 2017 as a powerful Category 4 storm. Harvey hovered for days as it trudged inland, dumping several feet of rain on many Gulf Coast communities and the Houston area.

Harvey killed at least 68 people, according to a National Hurricane Center report. All but three of the Harvey deaths were directly attributed to freshwater flooding, which damaged more than 300,000 structures and caused an estimated $125 billion in damage.

West Virginia, June 2016

A rainstorm that initially seemed like no big deal turned into a catastrophe in West Virginia, trapping dozens of people during the night and eventually leaving 23 people dead around the state.

Superstorm Sandy, 2012

Superstorm Sandy was a a late fall freak combination of a hurricane and other storms that struck New York and surrounding areas in October 2012.

Sandy killed 147 people, 72 in the eastern U.S., according to the National Hurricane Center. More than 110 deaths were attributed to drowning, Roys said.

Mississippi River, 2011

Heavy rainfall in several states, plus a larger-than-normal slow melt, led rivers in the Mississippi River Basin to swell and flood in 2011.

Flash floods associated with these storms caused 24 deaths across Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana and Tennessee in April and May, according to the National Weather Service.

Hurricane Ike, 2008

Hurricane Ike struck the Southeast Texas Gulf Coast in September 2008, creating a storm surge as high as 20 feet (6 meters) in the island city of Galveston.

Ike then poured more than 4 feet (1.2 meters) of rain on Houston, destroying thousands of cars and leaving hundreds of thousands of families with flood-damaged homes.

In all, Ike was responsible for more than 100 deaths, many caused by flooding.

Hurricane Katrina, 2005

Hurricane Katrina is the deadliest flood event in the U.S. in the past 25 years.

The storm crashed into the Gulf Coast and caused devastating flooding when levees failed in New Orleans, where people had to be rescued by boat and helicopter from rooftops.

The costliest storm in U.S. history, Katrina caused nearly 1,400 deaths and an estimated $200 billion in damages.

Tropical Storm Allison, 2001

Tropical Storm Allison caused 41 deaths, mostly attributed to flooding caused by 40 inches (101 centimeters) of rain that fell in Texas and Louisiana, Roys said.

Allison remained a threat for days as its remnants lingered after making landfall in June 2001, causing major flooding in Houston.

At least 63 dead as Helene pummels south-east US

29 September 2024 Share Save Nadine Yousif, Max Matza & Ana Faguy BBC News Share Save

Dramatic flooding and rescues as Hurricane Helene hits Florida

At least 63 people have died and millions have been left without power as Hurricane Helene roared through the south-eastern US. In North Carolina, more than 400 roads remain closed with the mountain town of Asheville largely cut off. Supplies are being airlifted to residents, state governor Roy Cooper said. Officials continued daring rescues with boats, helicopters and large vehicles to help those stranded in floodwaters – including about 50 workers and patients who crowded on the roof of a flooded Tennessee hospital. It was the most powerful storm on record to hit Florida’s Big Bend and moved north into Georgia and the Carolinas after making landfall overnight on Thursday.

Storm Helene: coastal surge and flash flooding risk

Insurers and financial institutions say damage caused by the storm could run into the billions of dollars. Roads and houses were submerged on Friday, with one family describing to BBC News how they had to swim out of their home to safety. Although Helene has weakened significantly, forecasters warn that high winds, flooding and the threat of tornadoes could continue. Helene, which had been a category four storm, came ashore on Thursday night and remained a hurricane for six hours after it made landfall, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said a storm surge – heightened water levels mostly caused by high winds blowing water towards shore – reached more than 15ft (4.5m) above ground level across parts of the Florida coast. The NHC said the surge should subside before the weekend but the threat from high winds and flooding would persist, including possible landslides. Up to 20in (50cm) of rain is still possible in places. The hurricane is the 14th most powerful to hit the US since records began. At approximately 420 miles (675 km) wide, it is behind only two other hurricanes – Ida in 2017 and Opal in 1996, both of which were 460 miles wide. Because of its sheer size, the impact of strong winds and heavy rain have been widespread across Florida, Georgia, Tennessee and the Carolinas. At least eight people have died in Florida since Friday, including at least five people in the coastal Pinellas County – which includes the city of St Petersburg – the county’s sheriff, Bob Gualtieri said. He added that the nearby coastline had “never, ever looked like this before”, describing it as like a “war zone”. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said one person died after a road sign fell on their car and another when a tree fell on a home. Hurricane Helene brings life-threatening conditions as it moves from Florida to Georgia

Reuters

After hitting Florida, the storm continued on a deadly path north into Georgia – leaving at least 15 dead – including a first responder, Governor Brian Kemp said. A suspected tornado that spawned in Wheeler County, central Georgia, left two people dead when it picked up and overturned a mobile home, authorities said. Kemp ordered 1,000 National Guard troops to help with rescue efforts across the state. The Georgia governor said on Friday that people were still trapped in buildings. In South Carolina, at least 17 people were killed, according to CBS News, the BBC’s US partner. Neighbouring North Carolina saw at least seven fatalities in the storm, CBS News added. Governor Roy Cooper said one had been killed in a vehicle collision and another when a tree fell on a home in Charlotte. The state also saw two confirmed tornadoes, which damaged 11 buildings and injured 15 people, the National Weather Service said. One person was also killed in Virginia, the state’s governor, Glenn Youngkin, said at a news conference on Friday. Across the south-east, more than three million homes and businesses were without power as of Saturday morning, according to tracking site poweroutage.us. Ahead of the storm, 1,500 federal emergency personnel were deployed to the region, including 940 search and rescue specialists. At the same time, around 8,000 members of the US Coast Guard were assisting with rescue operations. In North Carolina alone, more than 100 rescues have taken place, Cooper said. In Tennessee, 58 patients and staff were left stranded on the roof of a hospital in the city of Erwin on Friday. Swift-moving water from the Nolichucky river prevented boats from being able to conduct rescue operations, and high winds prevented helicopter rescue. The group was later taken to safety after helicopters from the Tennessee National Guard and the Virginia State Police intervened. In Pasco County, north of Tampa on Florida’s Gulf coast, 65 people were rescued. Guests at a Ramada Inn in Manatee County were also rescued as floodwaters rushed into the hotel. In Suwannee County to the north, authorities reported “extreme destruction”, with trees falling onto homes.

Getty Images Floating debris seen in Cedar Key, Florida

Along the Gulf Coast of Florida, Briana Gagnier told the BBC that she and her family saw water creeping into their home on Holmes Beach and started moving their belongings onto tables and beds before hearing a loud bang. “My family and I all looked at one another,” she said. “Then water just started pouring in.” Ms Gagnier said she grabbed her pets, her wallet and some portable chargers and swam out of their home with her family. The water was up to their shoulders. On Friday, President Joe Biden said: “As we mourn the lives of those who were taken by this storm, I urge folks to heed the direction of local officials and take every precaution to keep themselves and their families safe.” Officials have said the effects of the storm are “not over yet”, and urged residents to remain vigilant. Hurricanes need sea surface temperatures of more than 27C (80F) to fuel them. With exceptionally warm waters of the Gulf at 30-32C, the sea surface is about two degrees Celsius above normal for the time of year. Florida’s 220-mile Big Bend coast is where Hurricane Idalia made landfall in 2023. The area was also battered by Hurricane Debby last month. There could be as many as 25 named storms in 2024, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warned earlier this year. Between eight and 13 of those storms could develop into hurricanes and a handful already have including Helene. More storms could be on the horizon, officials warned, as the official end of hurricane season is not until 30 November.