AAA projects record travel for the holiday

PORTLAND, Ore., – Gas prices are easing ahead of the 4th of July holiday. Oregon and most other states are seeing pump prices decline, driven by falling crude oil prices. Crude prices spiked in mid-June in response to the strikes between Israel and Iran, and the U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. But crude prices plummeted last week and are back to what they were before the strikes. The declines in gas prices come as AAA projects record travel for Independence Day. For the week, the national average for regular loses five cents to $3.18 a gallon. The Oregon average falls three cents to $4.04 a gallon.

“Pump prices should continue to move lower as millions of drivers hit the road for the 4th of July, if Middle East tensions don’t flare up again,” says Marie Dodds, public affairs director for AAA Oregon/Idaho. “AAA expects that road travel will set a new record over the holiday. Drivers will find gas prices less than or similar to last year, depending on the region. The national average is less than last year, while the Oregon average is about the same. Drivers are getting a big break from 2022 when gas prices were at record highs for the holiday.”

AAA expects record-breaking travel for the 4th of July holiday, with 72.2 million Americans including 875,000 Oregonians going 50 miles or more from home over the holiday travel period. This is an increase of 1.7 million travelers (2.4%) compared to last year and 7 million more (10.7%) from 2019. Car and air travel volumes will break records. Find all the info plus graphics, top destinations, and advice for travelers in the AAA Independence Day travel news release.

The Oregon average for regular gas began 2025 at $3.45 a gallon and is currently at $4.04. The highest price of the year so far is $4.076 on June 24 and 25. The lowest price of the year so far is just under $3.45 a gallon on January 2.

The national average began 2025 at $3.06 a gallon and is currently at $3.18. The highest price of the year so far is $3.268 on April 4. The lowest price of the year so far is $3.06 on January 5.

This week 22 Oregon counties have averages at or above $4, compared to 24 counties a week ago:

Benton $4.00

Clackamas $4.09

Clatsop $4.15

Columbia $4.18

Coos $4.03

Crook $4.06

Curry $4.13

Douglas $4.07

Grant $4.15

Harney $4.25

Hood River $4.

Jackson $4.11

Josephine $4.12

Klamath $4.04

Lake $4.23

Linn $4.03

Multnomah $4.15

Tillamook $4.21

Wallowa $4.10

Wasco $4.12

Washington $4.13

Yamhill $4.11

Gas prices typically rise starting in mid-to-late winter and early spring as refineries undergo maintenance ahead of the switch to summer-blend fuel, which is more expensive to produce and less likely to evaporate in warmer temperatures. The switch occurs first in California, which is why pump prices on the West Coast often rise before other parts of the country. The East Coast is the last major market to switch to summer-blend fuel. Most areas have a May 1 compliance date for refiners and terminals, while most gas stations have a June 1 deadline to switch to selling summer-blend until June 1. Switch-over dates are earlier in California with some areas in the state requiring summer-blend fuel by April 1. Some refineries will begin maintenance and the switchover in February.

Gas prices usually drop in the fall, due to the switch from summer-blend to winter-blend fuel, which costs less to produce. The switch starts in September. Many areas, including Oregon, can sell winter-blend fuel starting September 15. However, Northern and Southern California require summer-blend fuel through October 31. Prices usually decline to their lowest levels of the year in late fall and early winter before increasing again in the late winter and early spring.

Meanwhile, crude oil production in the U.S. remains near record highs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that crude production in this country is steady at 13.43 million barrels per day for the week ending June 20. The record high is 13.63 million barrels per day for the week of December 6. Production has been at 13.5 million barrels per day many times since October. The U.S. has been the top producer of crude oil in the world since 2018 and has been increasing its oil production since about 2009.

The U.S. price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) had been mostly in the upper $60s to mid-$70s since last September. Crude prices spiked to the mid-$70s in mid-June in response to the strikes between Israel and Iran, and then the U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Last week, crude prices dropped back into the $60s on the belief that the conflict will not have a major impact on global oil supplies. Crude prices fell in early April as markets reacted to President Trumps tariffs and the impact on U.S. and global markets. Additional downward pressure on crude prices came after the decision by OPEC+ to increase production. The lowest closing price since September was $57.13 on May 5, which was the lowest closing price since February 2021. The recent high price for crude was $80.04 per barrel on January 15, which was the highest price since last August.

Crude oil is trading around $65 today compared to $64 a week ago and $83 a year ago. In 2024, West Texas Intermediate ranged between $66 and $87 per barrel. In 2023, WTI ranged between $63 and $95 per barrel. WTI reached recent highs of $123.70 on March 8, 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and $122.11 per barrel on June 8, 2022. The all-time high for WTI crude oil is $147.27 in July 2008.

Crude prices are impacted by economic news as well as geopolitical events around the world including the current economic uncertainty, unrest in the Middle East including the recent strikes between Israel and Iran and the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the war between Israel and Hamas, and the war between Russia and Ukraine. Russia is a top global oil producer, behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Crude prices have been volatile after the attack on Israel by Hamas in October 2023. While Israel and the Palestinian territory are not oil producers, concerns remain that the conflict could spread in the Middle East, which could potentially impact crude production in other oil-producing nations in the region. In addition, production cuts by OPEC+ in previous years tightened global crude oil supplies, which continued to impact prices. But now the cartel boosted production by 411,000 barrels in May and June, and announced the same increase for July.

Crude oil is the main ingredient in gasoline and diesel, so pump prices are impacted by crude prices on the global markets. On average, about 49% of what we pay for in a gallon of gasoline is for the price of crude oil, 16% is refining, 19% distribution and marketing, and 16% are taxes, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Demand for gasoline in the U.S. increased from 9.30 million b/d to 9.69 for the week ending June 20, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This compares to 8.97 million b/d a year ago. Meanwhile, total domestic gasoline supply decreased from 230 million barrels to 227.9. Gasoline production remained flat last week, averaging 10.1 million barrels per day.

Pump prices will likely decline in the short term, barring another flare up in the Middle East or a hurricane that impacts refining and/or distribution.

Quick stats

Oregon is one of 45 states with lower prices now than a week ago. Ohio (-16 cents) has the largest week-over-week decline in the nation. Indiana (+12 cents) has the biggest week-over-week increase.

California ($4.58) has the most expensive gas in the nation for the 20th week in a row. Hawaii ($4.47) is second, Washington ($4.42) is third, and Oregon ($4.04) is fourth. These are the four states in the country with averages at or above $4 a gallon. This week 26 states and the District of Columbia have averages in the $3-range. There are 20 states with an average in the $2 range this week.

The cheapest gas in the nation is in Mississippi ($2.71) and Oklahoma ($2.74). No state has had an average below $2 a gallon since January 7, 2021, when Mississippi and Texas were below that threshold. At the time, the COVID-19 pandemic drove significant declines in crude oil and gasoline demand in the U.S. and around the world.

The difference between the most expensive and least expensive states is $1.87 this week, compared to $1.92 a week ago.

Oregon is one of 39 states and the District of Columbia with higher prices now than a month ago. The national average is three cents more and the Oregon average is five cents more than a month ago. Delaware (+27 cents) has the largest month-over-month increase in the nation. California (-20 cents) has the largest month-over-month drop.

Oregon is one of 49 states and the District of Columbia with lower prices now than a year ago. The national average is 31 cents less and the Oregon average is one cent less than a year ago. Ohio (-57 cents) has the largest yearly drop. Washington (+11 cents) is the only state with a year-over-year increase.

West Coast

The West Coast region continues to have the most expensive pump prices in the nation with six of the seven states in the top 10. It’s typical for the West Coast to have six or seven states in the top 10 as this region tends to consistently have fairly tight supplies, consuming about as much gasoline as is produced. In addition, this region is located relatively far from parts of the country where oil drilling, production and refining occurs, so transportation costs are higher. And environmental programs in this region add to the cost of production, storage and distribution.

As mentioned above, California has the most expensive gas in the country for the 20th week in a row. Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, and Alaska round out the top six. Arizona is 14th. Oregon is fourth most expensive for the sixth week in a row.

All seven states in the West Coast region have small to moderate week-over-week decreases:

California (-7 cents), Nevada (-4 cents), Oregon (-3 cents), Washington (-3 cents), Arizona (-3 cents), Hawaii (-1 cent), and Alaska (-4/10ths of a cent).

The refinery utilization rate on the West Coast dipped from 89.9% to 88.4% to for the week ending June 20. This rate has ranged between about 72% to 92% in the last year. The latest national refinery utilization rate rose from 93.2% to 94.7%.

The refinery utilization rate measures how much crude oil refineries are processing as a percentage of their maximum capacity. A low or declining rate can put upward pressure on pump prices, while a high or rising rate can put downward pressure on pump prices.

According to EIA’s latest weekly report, total gas stocks in the region decreased from 29.2 million bbl. to 28.68 million bbl. An increase in gasoline stocks can put downward pressure on pump prices, while a decrease in gasoline stocks can put upward pressure on pump prices.

Oil market dynamics

Crude oil prices fell back into the $60s last week as markets reacted to easing fears that tensions in the Middle East would impact global oil supplies.

Meanwhile, the EIA reports that crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 415.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 11% below the five-year average for this time of year.

At the close of Friday’s formal trading session, WTI ticked up 28 cents to settle at $65.52. At the close of Monday’s formal trading session, WTI fell 41 cents to settle at $65.11. Today crude is trading around $65 compared to $64 a week ago. Crude prices are about $18 less than a year ago. ($83.38 on July1, 2024)

Drivers can find current gas prices along their route with the free AAA Mobile app for iPhone, iPad and Android. The app can also be used to map a route, find discounts, book a hotel and access AAA roadside assistance. Learn more at AAA.com/mobile.

Diesel

For the week, the national average slips one cent to $3.70 a gallon. The record high is $5.816 set on June 19, 2022. The Oregon average rises two cents to $4.46. The record high is $6.47 set on July 3, 2022. A year ago the national average for diesel was $3.80 and the Oregon average was $4.07.

Find current fuel prices at GasPrices.AAA.com.

AAA news releases, high resolution images, broadcast-quality video, fact sheets and podcasts are available on the AAA NewsRoom at NewsRoom.AAA.com.

Find local news releases at https://oregon.aaa.com/community/media/media-contacts.html

New York CNN —

This Fourth of July, millions of Americans will be hitting the road, feasting on barbecue fixings, while watching firework displays.

Here’s how much it will all cost.

Inflation is at its lowest level since 2020, while gas prices are the cheapest they’ve been in four years. But this year’s fireworks displays may look a little different and could be more costly. That’s because 99% of fireworks sold in the US come from China, which are facing tariffs of 30%. While that’s much lower than President Donald Trump’s initial tariff of 145% on Chinese imports, it’s still too high for many businesses.

Fireworks going up

The fireworks industry is mostly made up of small businesses like Hoffman Family Fireworks in Scott City, Missouri. The tariffs were added late in the fireworks season, making it challenging for businesses to pass those costs on to consumers, according to the American Pyrotechnics Association.

“We have spent tens of thousands of dollars extra on tariffs already this year,” Mary Ann Hoffman of Hoffman Family Fireworks told CNN affiliate KFVS.

“We are absorbing the cost this year,” she said.

The American Pyrotechnics Association is calling on the Trump administration to exempt fireworks from the tariffs, which it did successfully in 2019 during Trump’s first term.

“It’s not sustainable. We don’t know what’s going to happen at the end of the 90-day pause (on July 9). Are the tariffs going to go back up to triple digits? If that happens, we’re going to see businesses close down,” said Julie Heckman, the association’s executive director.

That means companies have had to get more creative with their firework displays this year. Ordering last-minute fireworks is be expensive, so businesses had to work with their existing inventories. If they’re short on certain colors of fireworks, you may see more blue than red in the sky, for example.

People gather near the Hudson River during the annual Macy’s Independence Day fireworks show as seen from Hoboken, New Jersey, on July 4, 2024. Kena Betancur/AFP/Getty Images

Fireworks are usually ordered a year in advance. Macy’s worked closely with its pyrotechnic partners over the last year to source fireworks for the retailer’s annual Fourth of July fireworks display in New York City months ahead of the show, according to a person familiar with this year’s planning.

But if fireworks are still taxed at the current tariff rate, nearly every fireworks show next year will be more expensive.

“The uncertainty is how are they (businesses) going to plan for next year when we believe 2026, America’s 250th anniversary, is going to be the largest celebrations ever, where the demand for fireworks is going to be record-breaking,” Heckman said.

Fireworks for Christmas and New Year’s celebrations this year will likely be more expensive. Many importers have held their fireworks in China to wait out the higher tariffs, feeling there is no other option.

“It would be next to impossible to try to re-shore manufacturing to the US to produce the volume of fireworks to meet the demand of the US. We import 322 million pounds of explosives (fireworks) every year,” Heckman said.

Barbecues holding steady

After five years of pandemic-fueled inflation, the increase in the cost of a Fourth of July barbecue is back to normal this year.

A meal for 10 people with all the traditional July 4th offerings will cost $130, up 2.2% from last year, according to a report from Wells Fargo. The bank analyzed the prices of barbecue staples like chicken, beef sliders, eggs, hot dogs, fresh fruit and vegetables as well as wine, beer and soda.

The higher overall prices are “primarily due to the beef and egg inflation,” Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist at Wells Fargo, told CNN. “That puts it close enough to the long-term average that most Americans won’t notice anything too unusual.”

Grocery store prices usually increased between one and two percent each year before the pandemic, according to the Consumer Price Index. Overall inflation rose 2.4% in May.

Meat is displayed at Best World Supermarket in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood of Washington, DC, on August 19, 2022. Sarah Silbiger/Reuters

Tariffs haven’t yet impacted Fourth of July food prices, Swanson said. That’s because more than 85% of the menu items are produced domestically.

“Most of what we’re seeing on the menu, and for the most part what we eat on an ongoing basis, is domestically sourced, and there’s seasonality around the fruits and vegetables,” said Swanson.

However, he said that due to shifting trade measures, “it’s really complicated right now to know what the current situation is on a product-by-product basis and also on a country-by-country basis.”

The menu item with the slowest price growth is chicken – up just 1% in the last year — which is especially affordable because American wages have risen much faster than the price of poultry, Swanson said.

But beef prices shot up 7.4% in the last year, according to Wells Fargo.

“Beef was already at a multi-year high for the cattle prices because of the low supply domestically,” Swanson said, adding that a screwworm outbreak impacted the supply restriction, since it required shutting down the border for importing Mexican feeder cattle.

The price of potatoes for your potato salad is up 1% from last year, but the eggs needed for mixing are up 40% because a deadly avian flu killed tens of millions of egg-laying birds earlier this year.

Buns for burgers fell 1.5%, while the prices of strawberries and watermelon — both of which are highly produced in the United States — dropped 0.6% year-over-year.

Gas prices down

A record 61.6 million people are expected to travel by car this holiday weekend, according to AAA. Drivers will see the lowest fourth of July gas prices since the pandemic began. The average price for a gallon of gas heading into the holiday weekend was $3.17 according to AAA. That’s 33 cents less than last year.

“We really didn’t see much of a spring rise in prices like we tend to see with gas prices. Right now we are below where we expected them to be. We expected them to be probably in the mid $3 a gallon area, more than they are today,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

Trump’s trade policies have pushed prices lower as consumers became nervous and pulled back on spending, which weakened demand for oil prices, De Haan said.

“I think a lot of the outcome there was because (of) not only OPEC raising production but the uncertainty brought on by some of Trump’s policies on trade,” De Haan said.

The conflict between Israel and Iran last month pushed oil prices close to $80 a barrel. Since then, prices have settled closer to pre-conflict prices of $65 a barrel. De Haan expects the impact on gas prices from the spike in oil prices to fade in the next few days.

“We should continue to drift lower for the next couple of days before you can say that there’s no longer really an impact,” he said.

And if there are no additional interruptions like Middle East conflicts or hurricanes, De Haan expects gas prices could fall below $3 a gallon by the end of the summer.

Landlords could have to pay national insurance – report

The Treasury is considering a tax increase on landlords by imposing national insurance on rental income at this autumn’s budget, it has been reported.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves and her officials are examining a possible levy on property earnings, which could raise about £2bn every year, The Times reports.

But an expert has told Money the move would “almost certainly” be passed on to renters.

Why is the government considering it?

The move is being backed by some Labour MPs and government aides, with some proponents saying that landlords were seen as a way of targeting “unearned revenue”.

Employee national insurance contributions (NICs) on other earnings stand at 8%, but drop to 2% above a £50,270 threshold.

Allies of Reeves are said to have argued the proposals avoid breaking the Labour government’s 2024 election pledge not to raise VAT, income tax or NIC for workers.

And the chancellor is under pressure to raise money to fill a hole in the public finances.

Read more on that here…

‘Almost certain’ costs would be passed on to tenants

Shaun Moore, tax and financial planning expert at the wealth management company Quilter, fears the proposal to apply national insurance to rental income would be a “significant blow to the buy-to-let sector”.

“Introducing an additional tax burden risks accelerating the exodus of landlords from the market, further reducing the supply of rental properties at a time when demand remains high,” he said.

“This imbalance will inevitably push rents even higher, worsening affordability for tenants and deepening the housing crisis.

“Similarly, the addition of national insurance would almost certainly be passed on to renters through higher rents, compounding the problem.”

Moore said a “more balanced approach” might be to revisit the changes to mortgage interest relief.

Treasury won’t confirm plan

Asked about the report in The Times, an HM Treasury spokesperson said the “best way to strengthen public finances is by growing the economy”.

“We are committed to keeping taxes for working people as low as possible, which is why at last autumn’s budget, we protected working people’s payslips and kept our promise not to raise the basic, higher or additional rates of income tax, employee national insurance, or VAT,” they added.

With the July 4 holiday travel season here, motorists might have noticed a slight increase in fuel prices.

However, the long-term impact of California’s tightening environmental policies on gas prices remains uncertain.

On Tuesday, the state excise tax on each gallon of gas increased by 1.6 cents due to inflation. *California’s aggressive carbon fuel reduction efforts may or may not lead to a larger hike.

Motorist Miguel Valencia put $50 into his SUV, and the tank was only half full. Valencia said higher gas prices make him reconsider his driving habits.

“It affects my day-to-day life because it stops me from going places that I would want to go to,” Valencia said. “Sometimes I have to cut back on my spending to go to a certain place.”

The state’s collection on each gallon of gas has risen slightly. But with crude oil prices currently dropping, that tax increase might not be noticeable yet.

Bay Area gas prices

Dig deeper:

Around the Bay Area, San Francisco has the highest average price at $4.82 per gallon, followed by San Mateo County at $4.76. Alameda and Contra Costa counties are even at $4.67, with a gallon checking in at $4.62 in Santa Clara County, according to AAA.

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The larger uncertainty lies with the “low carbon fuel standard,” or “LCFS.”

“It is a regulatory program that California adopted in 2009 to try to curb global warming,” according to Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “The LCFS mandates a gradual decrease in the carbon intensity of transportation fuels in the state.”

Some detractors of the program claim it could increase the price of a gallon by as much as 65 cents, as refineries may need to buy more carbon credits, an expense that could ultimately be passed on to consumers.

Gov. Gavin Newsom pushed back on Tuesday against that notion, posting on X that gas prices are actually lower now than they were a year ago.

As for the eventual impact of the LCFS, De Haan said nobody really knows.

“There are a lot of politicians who get very creative with math in order to sell something or to sell a plan against it. So there are a lot of nefarious agendas going on in the background creating these numbers,” De Haan said,

Cab driver Ted La said he appreciates California’s environmental stewardship but not at the expense of threatening his livelihood.

“Just yesterday (someone) told me that the Democrats are behind this when they are supposed to support us, who vote for them,” La said.

For the July 4 holiday, the good news is that prices are generally lower than they were a year ago, but predictions about the future trajectory of gas prices are difficult to come by.

Thousands of travelers across Southern California are already on their way traveling 50 miles or more for the upcoming Independence Day holiday later this week.

That’s according to the Auto Club of Southern California. The AAA is also monitoring a possible increase in gas prices Tuesday.

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First, the state’s excise tax rate will increase from 59.6 cents to 61.2 cents per gallon. That happens July 1 with the penny-and-a-half added to the price at the pump.

Haley Hersley topped off the tank of her 4 X 4 Silverado truck, Sunday morning, at the Summit gas station in the Midway District.

She and her husband and two children were headed back home to the Eastern Sierras. They were in San Diego to celebrate their son Jackson’s 6th birthday at SeaWorld. “The sharks were probably his favorite thing,” said Iriel Santana, his father.

M.G. Perez M.G. Perez

The family couldn’t resist the advertised price of regular $4.25 per gallon.

“Gas is already expensive enough, especially where we’re from Bishop, California. It’s a rural area. They already charge higher,” she said.

Also, on July 1, implementation begins of new, stricter environmental regulations for the state program called the Low Carbon Fuel Standard.

In November, the California Air Resources Board voted to strengthen the program, which functions as a sort of cap-and-trade program, incentivizing oil and gas companies to cut emissions and requiring those that don’t to buy credits from the ones that do.

“Gasoline producers have to drastically reduce carbon emissions. Either that or they have to purchase emission credits, which basically means they have to support financially other projects that are going to reduce emissions,” said Anlleyn Venegas, spokeswoman for the American Automobile Association San Diego.

Exactly how much more is not clear. Which means it is uncertain whether consumers will pay the additional costs at the pump.

A study from the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy found California drivers could pay significantly. It projected that this change would boost retail gasoline costs by 65 cents a gallon in the near term. The amount would increase by $1.50 a gallon within a decade.

M.G. Perez M.G. Perez

The AAA reports, this weekend, gas prices are the lowest they’ve been since 2021. Analysts say that this has something to do with the current ceasefire in the Israel-Iran war. The ceasefire has contributed to lower prices for barrels of oil from the Middle East region.

“They [gas prices] are coming down, which is good,” said Thomas Goldsmith as he topped off his gas tank, Sunday. “But, they gotta keep coming down. You can’t just keep taxing the people,” he said.