How Iran Lost
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Family describe ‘disbelief’ after man’s wife and two daughters killed in Iranian strike on Arab Israeli town
Four members of the Khatib family were killed when a ballistic missile from Iran hit their home in Tamra, Israel. Videos circulating online showed Jewish Israelis celebrating as the missiles fell, singing: “May your village burn.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to criticise the video: “Four of our citizens were killed inTamra” The attack is a reminder of the bitter divides in this society, at war on multiple fronts, says Sky News’ David Walliams. ‘No-one is protected. Not Arabs, not Israelis, not Jews, not Palestinians,’ says cousin Layan Diab. ‘I feel terrible. I feel fire in my body… I hope that I will survive this moment,’ says father of one of the victims, Raja. ‘We have a government who want war, we want peace. We want to live,’ says mother of another victim, Razan. ‘In one moment, everything went dark. I couldn’t see anything. I asked Allah, please don’t take my life,’ she says.
Close by, huddled under an arched courtyard, women of all ages are sitting, grieving in their own way.
Some are sobbing, others look dazed, others desperate.
Their intermittent wails of grief puncture the silence. Yet there’s a beautiful stillness about it all.
Image: The Khatib family home was destroyed in Tamra, Israel
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We’ve arrived just at the moment Tamra, Israel, has come to a standstill.
Everyone here is waiting for the bodies of four members of the Khatib family to return, killed when a ballistic missile from Iran hit their home on Saturday night.
Manar Khatib was killed alongside two of her daughters – 20-year-old Shada, and 13-year-old Hala – and her sister-in-law, also called Manar.
Image: Layan Diab, the 23-year-old cousin of the girls
Layan Diab, 23, is a cousin of the girls. She’s in disbelief.
“It’s a deep loss. It hurts my soul. We lost our entire family. Four people here. I can’t fathom it. I don’t understand. It’s unbelievable,” she says. And she’s fearful of the coming days.
“Every time we hear the sirens, people start to scream and remember,” she says.
Tamra is a tight-knit town. Most living here are Palestinian citizens of Israel.
Videos circulating online showed Jewish Israelis celebrating as the missiles fell, singing: “May your village burn.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to criticise the video:
“Four of our citizens were killed in Tamra. I’ve heard cheers of rejoicing and I reject that vehemently. The missile makes no distinction. It harms Jews as well as Arabs. They’re coming to destroy all of us, and we stand in this battle together.”
It is a reminder of the bitter divides in this society, at war on multiple fronts.
“No-one is protected. Not Arabs, not Israelis, not Jews, not Palestinians, not Israelis,” Layan says with a desperate frustration in her voice.
Just down the street is the girls’ grieving father, Raja Khatib.
Image: Raja Khatib lost four family members, including his wife and two of his daughters, in the Iranian attack
A lawyer with a charming warmth, he starts to speak Italian, assuming we may be from Italy.
He’d just returned from a holiday there with his wife and children in Ferrara.
His eyes fill with tears as he says that if only he’d stayed a day longer, they would all be alive today.
‘I feel terrible. I feel fire in my body… I hope that I will survive this moment. I’ve lost my family, but for what? A missile from Iran?”
Image: Debris, including shoes, was thrown across the street by the impact of the missile
I ask if he sees an end to this conflict between Iran and Israel. He seems despairing.
“Conflict with Iran, Lebanon, Gaza. We have a government who want[s] war. We want peace. We want to live.”
Read more from Sky News:
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Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 3:08 Analysis: Iran and Israel strike targets
Listening in supportively from the side is his middle daughter, 17-year-old Razan, who miraculously survived the blast.
That evening, she’d been out to buy cookies with her sisters.
When they returned, Razan and her older sister Shada played music and watched videos on their phones.
Image: The Khatib family home was wrecked in the attack
When the alarms started to sound, they dismissed them at first.
But after a loud boom, Razan was unsettled and started to make her way to one of the safe rooms, imploring Shada to do the same.
But only Razan went.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 0:24 ‘Iran is not winning this war’
“In one moment, everything went dark. I couldn’t see anything. I asked Allah, please don’t take my life,” she describes with searing clarity.
She could hear her father calling out for them all. But his cries were met with silence.
Razan’s family home is now a mound of rubble.
When we arrive there, we find neighbours and friends clearing the rubble. Many are deeply traumatised.
Hamad, who’s sweeping debris outside the house opposite, tells me he saw body parts flung across the road and into a nearby garden, and there’s blood on the walls.
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It is a deeply visceral and harrowing account of an attack that took everyone by surprise.
This is a residential neighbourhood. It’s thought the missile was likely bound for Haifa, about half an hour away and home to oil refineries.
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But this time, with this missile, it fell on civilians. And took with it, futures.
One-by-One: How Iran’s Supreme Commander Ayatollah Ali Khamenei lost his top commanders and why his axis is crumbling
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been in power since the 1979 Islamic revolution. Khamenei is a key figure in both external conflict and domestic repression. He is also a key bridge between clerical leadership and military. The list of allies includes Hezbollah, Iran’s key regional ally, as well as the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia. It also includes the UK, France, Germany, Britain, Israel, Russia, China and the United States. It includes a number of senior Iranian officials who have been killed in recent years, including Qasem Soleimani, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, Mohammad Bagheri, Hamid Reza Pahlavi, and Ali Shamkhani. They include the former National Security Council Chief; Senior Adviser to Khamenei; and the Deputy Head of Intelligence, Gholamreza Mehrabzadeh. The List of Allies includes the Iranian military, Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the US.
The Night the Guard Fell
The Isolation of the Supreme Leader
The List of Allies
Qasem Soleimani
Role: Commander, IRGC Quds Force
Commander, IRGC Quds Force Date of Death: January 3, 2020
January 3, 2020 Context: Killed by a US drone strike in Baghdad
Killed by a US drone strike in Baghdad Impact: Architect of Iran’s regional proxy wars; his death dismantled the cohesion of Iran’s overseas operations.
Mohsen Fakhrizadeh
Role: Chief of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme
Chief of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme Date of Death: November 27, 2020
November 27, 2020 Context: Assassinated in Absard near Tehran, likely by Israeli intelligence
Assassinated in Absard near Tehran, likely by Israeli intelligence Impact: Scientific cornerstone of Iran’s nuclear ambitions; huge intelligence failure and psychological blow.
Mohammad Hejazi
Role: Deputy Commander, IRGC Quds Force
Deputy Commander, IRGC Quds Force Date of Death: April 18, 2021
April 18, 2021 Context: Died suddenly under unclear circumstances amid tensions with Israel
Died suddenly under unclear circumstances amid tensions with Israel Impact: Had been in charge of Hezbollah missile operations; his death weakened Iran’s precision-strike strategy.
Ali Shamkhani
Role: Former National Security Council Chief; Senior Adviser to Khamenei
Former National Security Council Chief; Senior Adviser to Khamenei Date of Death: June 14, 2025
June 14, 2025 Context: Succumbed to injuries after Israeli airstrikes in Tehran
Succumbed to injuries after Israeli airstrikes in Tehran Impact: Longtime military and diplomatic strategist; key bridge between clerical leadership and military.
Hossein Salami
Role: Commander-in-Chief, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
Commander-in-Chief, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Date of Death: June 13, 2025
June 13, 2025 Context: Killed in Israeli airstrikes on Tehran military sites
Killed in Israeli airstrikes on Tehran military sites Impact: Top military commander; central figure in both external conflict and domestic repression.
Amir Ali Hajizadeh
Role: Commander, IRGC Aerospace Force
Commander, IRGC Aerospace Force Date of Death: June 14, 2025
June 14, 2025 Context: Killed in a second wave of Israeli strikes while planning retaliatory action
Killed in a second wave of Israeli strikes while planning retaliatory action Impact: Architect of Iran’s missile and drone arsenal; his death blunted Iran’s retaliatory capabilities.
Mohammad Bagheri
Role: Chief of Staff, Iranian Armed Forces
Chief of Staff, Iranian Armed Forces Date of Death: June 13, 2025
June 13, 2025 Context: Died in Israeli precision strikes
Died in Israeli precision strikes Impact: Top military planner overseeing both IRGC and conventional army operations; loss shattered national defence integration.
Gholam Ali Rashid
Role: Commander, Khatam al-Anbiya Central HQ (Joint Military Operations)
Commander, Khatam al-Anbiya Central HQ (Joint Military Operations) Date of Death: June 13, 2025
June 13, 2025 Context: Killed during first wave of Israeli attacks
Killed during first wave of Israeli attacks Impact: Oversaw strategic military planning; critical loss for wartime coordination.
Mohammad Kazemi
Role: Head of IRGC Intelligence Organisation
Head of IRGC Intelligence Organisation Date of Death: June 13, 2025
June 13, 2025 Context: Died in Israeli strike targeting intelligence facilities
Died in Israeli strike targeting intelligence facilities Impact: Iran’s top spymaster; responsible for internal security and counterintelligence.
Gholamreza Mehrabi
Role: Deputy Head of Intelligence, Iranian General Staff
Deputy Head of Intelligence, Iranian General Staff Date of Death: June 13, 2025
June 13, 2025 Context: Confirmed dead in coordinated Israeli targeting of Tehran military compounds
Confirmed dead in coordinated Israeli targeting of Tehran military compounds Impact: Key military intelligence officer overseeing battlefield surveillance and analysis.
Hassan Nasrallah (non-Iranian, key regional ally)
Role: Secretary-General, Hezbollah
Secretary-General, Hezbollah Date of Death: September 2024
September 2024 Context: Killed in Israeli airstrike in Beirut
Killed in Israeli airstrike in Beirut Impact: Strategic proxy and deterrent force against Israel; his death dismantled Iran’s first-response deterrent in Lebanon.
Bashar al-Assad (non-Iranian, strategic partner)
Role: President of Syria
President of Syria Date of Death: December 2024 (Overthrown and later killed by rebel forces)
December 2024 Context: Fell after years of civil war; Tehran failed to keep him in power
Fell after years of civil war; Tehran failed to keep him in power Impact: Collapse of Iran’s military foothold in Syria; severed arms and logistics pipeline to Hezbollah.
What Comes Next?
In the smouldering wreckage of Israel’s aerial blitz over Tehran, one figure cuts an increasingly isolated silhouette—Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the 86-year-old Supreme Leader of Iran, suddenly bereft of the generals, spymasters, and strategists who once made up the steel spine of his rule. In a span of mere hours, Iran’s most elite military and intelligence commanders were wiped out, marking the most devastating blow to the Islamic Republic’s leadership since its inception in 1979.The deaths weren’t just symbolic—they were surgical. The head of the Revolutionary Guards. The architect of Iran’s missile programme. The chief of military intelligence. The coordinator of national defence. Gone. One by one, the core of Khamenei’s advisory ring has been eliminated, shattering the command-and-control structure he built over three decades.The strikes began just past midnight last Friday. Precision-guided Israeli missiles struck high-value targets in and around Tehran—underground bunkers, communication nodes, airbases—and with them, the men who commanded them.Major General Hossein Salami, the Guards’ commander-in-chief, was among the first confirmed dead. A long-time Khamenei loyalist, Salami was more than a military officer; he was the Supreme Leader’s enforcer, strategist, and ideological spearhead.Close behind him, Amir Ali Hajizadeh—the brains behind Iran’s drone and missile arsenal—was eliminated in a secondary strike, alongside key deputies while they convened to plan retaliation.Intelligence chief Mohammad Kazemi was gone next. Then came the death of General Mohammad Bagheri, Iran’s armed forces chief of staff, and General Gholam Ali Rashid, commander of joint military operations. By Saturday morning, the upper tier of Iran’s warfighting architecture had been decapitated.In military terms, it was a blitz of breathtaking efficacy. In political terms, it was an earthquake.Khamenei has always ruled through concentric circles of loyalty—clerics, Guardsmen, intelligence officials. Their loyalty was never in question; their effectiveness, tested through wars, uprisings, and assassinations, was what kept the Islamic Republic intact. Now, that circle lies broken.Sources familiar with the workings of Khamenei’s decision-making say the inner circle was never institutional—it was relational. These weren’t just officers, they were comrades. Men he had fought beside, plotted revolutions with, entrusted the future to. Their loss is not only strategic—it is deeply personal.What remains is a smaller, more fragile apparatus. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has grown in stature over the past two decades, and now emerges as the de facto coordinator of both policy and security. A cleric with no formal title but immense behind-the-scenes clout, Mojtaba is seen by insiders as both successor-in-waiting and chief-of-staff in practice.The old lieutenants who remain—diplomatic veterans like Ali Akbar Velayati and Kamal Kharazi, domestic fixers like Mohammad Golpayegani—now find themselves holding the last threads of a once expansive power structure.And Khamenei’s losses extend beyond Iran’s borders. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, long Tehran’s regional ace and one of Khamenei’s few true foreign confidants, was killed in a strike last September. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad—propped up for years by Iranian guns and gold—was ousted by a rebel uprising in December. The famed “Axis of Resistance” now lies in fragments, with its anchors in Lebanon and Damascus broken, and its leader in Tehran shaken. With Hezbollah weakened and Syria uncertain, Iran’s deterrence posture is severely compromised. Its proxies are scattered, its supply lines disrupted, and its ability to escalate in multiple theatres constrained. For Israel, that’s a strategic triumph. For the region, it raises the spectre of an emboldened Iran acting unpredictably.Read: Quit Tehran, government tells Indian citizens, moves students out of city In Tehran, the government has tried to project continuity. Missile salvos have been fired at Israeli targets. Speeches invoking vengeance have filled state television. But behind closed doors, the regime is scrambling. The new commanders lack the battlefield experience of their predecessors. The intelligence apparatus is disoriented. The regular army, traditionally sidelined by the Guards, may be asked to step in—further complicating the military chain of command. And over it all looms the figure of Mojtaba, untested in war, yet now central to crisis management.For Khamenei, the moment is existential. He has always prioritised regime survival above all else—over ideology, over diplomacy, over economy. That calculus hasn’t changed. But with his most trusted men gone, the execution of that survival strategy is no longer guaranteed. As one Iranian insider put it, “He is cautious. But he is now also alone.” And in the chessboard of the Middle East, there is no lonelier square than Tehran when the generals are gone, the allies are dead, and the war drums are pounding.Also read: Iran urges public to delete WhatsApp; claims app sends data to Israel amid conflict
How Critical Was iran’s Loss of F-14 Tomcat to Israeli Strikes, and Where’re the MiG-29s
Israel Defense Forces has released footage of a recent strike on two F-14 Tomcat aircraft parked at Tehran airport. The attack, carried out on June 16, 2025, became one of the few episodes featuring iranian aviation since the outbreak of the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East on June 13, 2025. iran has remained the only user of the Tomcat, an American jet fighter withdrawn from service in the United States in 2006. Other than that, iran is known to have MiG-29 fighters, but their apparent disappearance from the field of view raises questions of where they could’ve gone.
Another thing to note is that iran has remained the only user of the Tomcat, an American jet fighter withdrawn from service in the United States in 2006. Only the iranian F-14s could still take to the air. Other than that, iran is known to have MiG-29 fighters, but their apparent disappearance from the field of view raises questions of where they could’ve gone and what is happening with iranian combat aircraft in general.
Based on data cited in The Military Balance 2024 study by IISS, in early 2024, iran possessed up to ten F-14 Tomcats. How many of them were actually usable is not specified.
But more than the condition of aircraft itself, a much bigger problem is the usability of AIM-7 and AIM-54 air-to-air missiles, which arm the jets for combat and theoretically remained in Tehran’s arsenal, and also the condition of the AN/AWG-9 airborne radars.
In late 2024, iran was planning to show its old MiG-29s and new Yak-130s received from russia at a local air show, but ended up displaying only one of its F-14 Tomcats. Paradoxically, even the much older F-4 Phantom (55 in service as of 2024) looked in a better condition than the Tomcat, while the russian jets failed to attend the event.
An F-14 Tomcat of the iranian Air Force is being prepared for takeoff, December 2024 / Photo credit: @tower_eye, Tango Six
This context suggests that the Tomcats struck by Israeli forces could equally possibly be combat-ready units or non-operational airframes only existing to give spare parts to cannibalize. Otherwise, the fact iranians did not try to raise these jets to try and intercept Israeli attacks or at least avoid being targeted on the ground doesn’t make sense.
In theory, iran’s most valuable asset is the MiG-29, the circumstances of this aircraft acquisition in 1990–1994 Defense Express has outlined in a separate article. In particular, we mentioned that after 1993, russia stopped supplying the iranians with aircraft components — a decision partly accounting for the deteriorating condition of Soviet-era aircraft in the iranian Air Force in general, although little details are known in that regard.
That said, the iranian military may still try to raise its MiG-29s despite the dangers of flying unserviced aircraft.
Russia fears another loss in Middle East from Iran’s conflict with Israel
Russia fears another loss in Middle East from Iran’s conflict with Israel. The longer Israel’s military operation goes on, the greater the realisation that Russia has much to lose from current events. Russia has relied heavily on Iran’s Shahed drones in its war in Ukraine, but now manufactures them locally. The prospect of regime change in Iran, the thought of losing another strategic partner in the region, will be of major concern to Moscow. The Russian-Iranian strategic partnership deal which Vladimir Putin and President Masoud Pezeshkian signed earlier this year is not a military alliance.
10 hours ago Share Save Steve Rosenberg Russia Editor Reporting from Saint Petersburg Share Save
AFP via Getty Images While Moscow has talked up its partnership with Iran, the deal does not require Russia to come to Iran’s military aid
When Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, officials in Russia described the current escalation in the Middle East as “alarming” and “dangerous.” Still, Russian media were quick to stress the potential positives for Moscow. Among them: A rise in global oil prices which is forecast to boost Russia’s coffers
The distraction of global attention away from Russia’s war on Ukraine. “Kyiv has been forgotten” was a headline in Moskovsky Komsomolets
And if the Kremlin’s offer to mediate in the conflict was accepted, Russia could portray itself as a key player in the Middle East and as a peacemaker, despite its actions in Ukraine However, the longer Israel’s military operation goes on, the greater the realisation that Russia has much to lose from current events. “The escalation of the conflict carries serious risks and potential costs for Moscow,” wrote Russian political scientist Andrei Kortunov in business daily Kommersant on Monday.
“The fact remains that Russia was unable to prevent a mass strike by Israel on a country with which five months ago [Russia] signed a comprehensive strategic partnership. “Clearly Moscow is not prepared to go beyond political statements condemning Israel, it’s not ready to provide Iran with military assistance.” The Russian-Iranian strategic partnership deal which Vladimir Putin and President Masoud Pezeshkian signed earlier this year is not a military alliance. It does not oblige Moscow to come to Tehran’s defence. At the time, though, Moscow talked it up. In an interview with the Ria Novosti news agency, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that the agreement paid “special attention to the strengthening of co-ordination in the interests of peace and security on the regional and global levels, and the desire of Moscow and Tehran for closer co-operation on security and defence”.
Reuters Russia has relied heavily on Iran’s Shahed drones in its war in Ukraine, but now manufactures them locally
In the last six months Moscow has already lost one key ally in the Middle East, Bashar al-Assad. After the Syrian leader was deposed last December he was offered asylum in Russia. The prospect of regime change in Iran, the thought of losing another strategic partner in the region, will be of major concern to Moscow.
How Israel Took Control of Iran’s Skies
Israel says it can now fly over Iran’s capital, Tehran, without facing major resistance. Air supremacy gives Israel the freedom to escalate its bombing campaign, look for additional targets. Backed into a corner, the Iranian regime may consider its survival at stake and could take more extreme measures. Israel may double down on the advantage its air superiority provides: more strikes, more decapitation efforts, and potentially even covert ground operations. The Israeli offensive was launched Friday after the IAEA concluded that Iran had moved closer to the threshold of producing a nuclear weapon.. The idea of finding a sustainable, permanent deal here has taken a big hit as a result of Israeli military action, says Richard Nephew, the former Deputy Special Envoy for Iran under the Biden Administration. “We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday morning backed Israel’s declaration that Tehran has lost control of Iran’s airspace. ‘We had a nuclear deal that was working. His own administration was saying it was working’
Just four days into its ferocious air campaign, Israel appears to have gained a decisive edge in its escalating conflict with Iran: aerial supremacy over Iran. The Israeli military said Monday that it can now fly over the country’s capital, Tehran, without facing major resistance after crippling Iran’s air defenses in recent strikes, enabling Israel to hit an expanding range of targets with relative ease.
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Such control over Iran’s skies, military analysts say, is not just a tactical advantage—it’s a strategic turning point. Air supremacy gives Israel the freedom to escalate its bombing campaign, look for additional targets, and possibly redraw the rules of deterrence in a region where missile salvos and proxy wars have long defined the limits of conflict. Soon after declaring control of Tehran’s skies, Israel warned residents and workers in the capital to evacuate, and later appeared to strike the headquarters of Iran’s state television broadcaster while anchors were live on air. It was a symbolically potent moment: a demonstration not just of reach, but of psychological dominance. Israel’s aerial ascendancy is not free of risks. Backed into a corner, the Iranian regime may consider its survival at stake and could take more extreme measures. Iran has limited tools given the setbacks it has suffered over the last two years, but it still has terrorist proxies around the world and has attempted assassinations of major figures in the past. It might also try to sprint for a nuclear weapon in one of its remaining underground facilities.
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The Israeli offensive—codenamed Operation Rising Lion—was launched Friday after the IAEA concluded that Iran had moved closer to the threshold of producing a nuclear weapon. Since then, Israel has carried out one of the most intense and far-reaching air operations in its history, targeting nuclear sites, missile launchers, airports, and senior figures in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the strikes will continue until both Iran’s nuclear facilities and missile stockpiles are destroyed. U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday morning backed Israel’s declaration that Tehran has lost control of Iran’s airspace: “We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn’t compare to American made, conceived, and manufactured ‘stuff.’ Nobody does it better than the good ol’ USA.”
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Read more: Here Are the Top Iranian Generals and Scientists Targeted and Killed by Israeli Strikes—and What We Know About Them But while the air campaign has given Israel the upper hand militarily, it has also hardened diplomatic dead-ends. Richard Nephew, the former Deputy Special Envoy for Iran under the Biden Administration, says that reviving nuclear negotiations with Iran is now “infinitely harder than it used to be” because the U.S. has shown it can withdraw from an agreement at any time and is unable to control its ally in Israel. “The idea of finding a sustainable, permanent deal here has taken a big hit as a result of Israeli military action,” he says, adding that Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the original nuclear agreement was the catalyst for the current crisis. “We had a nuclear deal that was working. His own administration was saying it was working.” Now, with Iran’s nuclear program damaged but not destroyed, and its retaliatory missile strikes continuing, military analysts say Israel may double down on the advantage its air superiority provides: more strikes, more decapitation efforts, and potentially even covert ground operations—backed by an air force that now roams Iranian skies largely unchallenged.
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Here’s what to know about Israel’s air supremacy. What does it mean to have air supremacy? Air supremacy is the most complete form of aerial dominance a military can achieve. It means an air force can strike targets across a country at will, without major opposition from enemy aircraft or air defenses. For Israel to claim this over Iran just days after the strikes began is an impressive military accomplishment, says Michael Knights, the Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute who specializes in Middle Eastern security. “It’s exceptional to get this level of freedom. I’m quite surprised that they’ve managed it,” he says, noting that not even the U.S. had been able to establish air superiority over the Houthis despite spending around $1 billion on the effort, losing over 20 major drone systems in the process. “Air superiority gives you a real edge when it comes to keeping the enemy stationary or watching whenever they try to move,” Knights says, suggesting that Israel may use it to track key targets like nuclear facilities or where certain Iranian leaders live. The air advantage also allows Israel to bomb “around the clock instead of just at night” without real fear of being shot down, he adds.
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Read more: Israel Gets the War It Wanted Israel began the war using its most advanced stealth aircraft, the F-35, enhanced with intelligence-gathering modifications to fly deep into Iranian territory and strike Iran’s air defense radar installations and surface-to-air missile batteries. After suppressing most of Iran’s air defenses, Israel sent older fighter jets, including F-15s and F-16s, to join the operation and began dropping JDAMs and SPICE bombs—relatively inexpensive compared to missiles—on an expanding list of military sites, some of them within the heart of Tehran.
Smoke rises from locations targeted in Tehran amid the third day of conflict between Israel and Iran, June 15, 2025. Khoshiran—Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images
Unlike Russia, which has failed to achieve similar air dominance in Ukraine after more than three years of war, Israel has accomplished it in a matter of days. Analysts credit superior training, tighter integration with intelligence and cyber operations, and the element of surprise.
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“The two previous Israeli retaliatory operations in 2024 taught them that they could operate within Iranian airspace relatively freely,” Knights says. “First you take out its command and control, its communications, radar…and pretty soon you can operate drones in daylight over Tehran.” How much damage can Israel do from the air? With aerial supremacy, Israel’s destructive potential has increased exponentially. Without needing to rely on costly long-range missiles, Israeli jets can now fly directly over Iranian targets, drop cheaper precision bombs, and strike with greater frequency. Knights says that the Israeli military will likely try to destroy the entire Iranian Navy and Iran’s weapon storage facilities, military and civilian fuel storage sites, and national security buildings. But he notes that Israel will not be able to strike some of Iran’s major uranium enrichment sites, like Fordow, a nuclear facility that is buried deep within a mountain and is considered nearly impervious to conventional airstrikes. “They don’t have bunker busters that are good enough,” he says.
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Read more: Watch The Moment Israel Strikes Iranian State Television During Live Broadcast Israeli officials have said its military has prepared at least two weeks of strikes, though that could change if the U.S. increases its involvement. The U.S. military has already helped shoot down Iranian missiles fired at Israel, and Trump appears to want a full surrender from Iran rather than a ceasefire. In a social media post on Tuesday morning, Trump said the U.S. knows the location of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei but doesn’t want him killed “for now.” “We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader” is hiding,” Trump wrote. “He is an easy target, but is safe there—We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin.” “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” Trump wrote in a follow up post.
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Trump’s latest comments were likely welcomed by the Israelis, who “were quite concerned about what kind of deal Donald Trump was going to make” with the Iranians, Nephew says. That prompted them to “act now, as opposed to waiting to see what else would come from the negotiating process.” Read more: How Involved Was the U.S. in Israel’s Attack on Iran? Already, Israel has destroyed more than 120 surface-to-surface missile launchers—roughly a third of Iran’s total—along with two F-14 aircraft, dozens of command centers, and critical infrastructure supporting Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The strike on Mashhad airport, 1,400 miles from Israel, was the longest-range attack in the campaign. Iran is depleting its stockpiles of missiles and drones in repeated attempts to retaliate. Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, said that more than 220 civilians in Iran have been killed since the start of Israel’s offensive, including 20 children, while more than 1,000 people have been injured. The Israeli prime minister’s office says that at least 24 people have been killed by Iran’s retaliatory strikes against Israel, and nearly 600 injured.
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“Iran has turned out to be much weaker than we had assumed, and yet it’s still standing,” says Alex Vatanka, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute who specializes in Iranian security affairs. He adds that the Iranians know the U.S. is the only country that can stop Israel from attacking, and that Iran’s leaders are asking for talks to resume as long as the U.S. doesn’t join the attack. “Israel definitely cannot stay in this fight for the long haul without the U.S.,” he says. “But Netanyahu is saying to Trump, please let me finish the job.”