How to play retail stocks: 3 winners vs. 3 losers in the space

How to play retail stocks: 3 winners vs. 3 losers in the space

How to play retail stocks: 3 winners vs. 3 losers in the space

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Stock market today: Dow sinks, S&P 500 posts worst day of 2025 after Trump forges ahead on tariffs

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 1.7%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped 2.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell nearly 650 points, or almost 1.5%, as the major US indexes came off a volatile week and a losing February. Tariffs against Canada and Mexico are set to come into effect on Tuesday after Trump said levies against both countries are “all set, they go into effect tomorrow”

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US stocks plummeted on Monday afternoon, with selling accelerating in the last hour of trading after President Trump indicated there was “no room left” for tariff negotiations with Canada and Mexico, indicating that new levies against both countries will go into effect tomorrow.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 1.7%, posting its worst day of 2025, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped 2.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell nearly 650 points, or almost 1.5%, as the major US indexes came off a volatile week and a losing February.

Tech led the sell-off, with shares of Nvidia (NVDA) tanking more than 8%. All of the “Magnificent 7” stocks declined.

March trading kicked off with investors encountering more questions than answers amid looming tariffs as US policy makers face the test of disproving investors’ fears about growth. First quarter economic growth is expected to slide following a string of weaker-than-expected economic data.

SNP – Delayed Quote • USD (^GSPC) View Quote Details 5,802.82 – (-0.67%) At close: May 23 at 4:57:39 PM EDT ^GSPC ^DJI ^IXIC Advanced Chart

Tariffs against Canada and Mexico are set to come into effect on Tuesday after Trump said levies against both countries are “all set, they go into effect tomorrow.”

The week will bring a crucial jobs report and a batch of retail earnings that could feed or ease concerns about an economic downturn and consumer resilience. The February nonfarm-payrolls report on Friday is expected to show modest job growth, with the unemployment rate steady at 4%.

And in retail earnings ahead, results from Target (TGT) on Tuesday and Costco (COST) are in focus for what they reveal about American shoppers. Data last week showed consumer spending unexpectedly fell in January by the most in four years.

Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies got a boost after Trump said on Sunday that five digital assets — bitcoin (BTC-USD), ether (ETH-USD), XRP (XRP-USD), solana (SOL-USD), and cardano (ADA-USD) — would be included in a new US strategic cryptocurrency reserve. Prices of those tokens on Monday pared some of the sharp gains booked following the post on social media by the president, with bitcoin trading around $86,000.

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Markets News, April 3, 2025: Trump Tariffs Spark Worst Day for Major Stock Indexes Since 2020; Dow Loses Almost 1,700 Points, S&P Drops Nearly 5%

These Were the Big Movers in the S&P 500 on Thursday Decliners The tariff announcement pressured shares of companies that manufacturer technological devices, which could face higher costs in their international supply chains. Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) bucked the downward pressure on the broader markets, jumping 10%. The provider of frozen french fries and other potato products reported better-than-expected sales and profits for its fiscal third quarter. A shift toward stocks with a better chance of withstanding a potential recession also helped boost shares of discount retailer Dollar General (DG), which advanced 4.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 2.5% so far this week, putting it on track for its fifth weekly loss in the last seven. So far this year, the Dow has retreated 4. 7%, while the S-P 500 is down 8.3% and the Nasdaq has plunged 14%. The magnitude of today’s sell-off was unusual. Aside from the Covid-19 rout, there have been only three worse days this decade, and all of them were in March 2020.

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These Were the Big Movers in the S&P 500 on Thursday Decliners The tariff announcement pressured shares of companies that manufacturer technological devices, which could face higher costs in their international supply chains. Dell Technologies (DELL) stock suffered the steepest drop in the S&P 500 on Thursday, plummeting 19%.

(DELL) stock suffered the steepest drop in the S&P 500 on Thursday, plummeting 19%. Shares of fellow manufacturer HP (HPQ) dropped 15%. Other companies involved in the creation of computer hardware took a hit on Thursday: Western Digital (WDC), a manufacturer of hard disk drives and other data storage technologies, fell 18%. Televisions on display at a Best Buy store in San Rafael, California. Justin Sullivan / Getty Images Best Buy (BBY) shares dropped 18%. Citi downgraded the electronics retailer’s stock to “neutral” from “buy,” highlighting the the likelihood of pressure on same-store sales as customers reject price increases. According to Citi analysts, the existing tariff plans on imports from China could result in a 5-percentage-point sales decline for Best Buy as consumers limit discretionary spending, suggesting significant downside risk to the company’s current guidance. Advancers Shares of Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) bucked the downward pressure on the broader markets, jumping 10% to notch the strongest gains of any S&P 500 stock. The provider of frozen french fries and other potato products reported better-than-expected sales and profits for its fiscal third quarter, highlighting progress on its efforts to improve operational efficiency despite persistent headwinds from subdued restaurant traffic. Activist investor Jana Partners, which acquired a sizable position in Lamb Weston late last year, has been pushing for changes as the company navigates a challenging environment.

(LW) bucked the downward pressure on the broader markets, jumping 10% to notch the strongest gains of any S&P 500 stock. The provider of frozen french fries and other potato products reported better-than-expected sales and profits for its fiscal third quarter, highlighting progress on its efforts to improve operational efficiency despite persistent headwinds from subdued restaurant traffic. Activist investor Jana Partners, which acquired a sizable position in Lamb Weston late last year, has been pushing for changes as the company navigates a challenging environment. Numerous stocks with defensive characteristics, including several names in the health care sector, managed to push higher despite the turbulent market environment. Shares of insurance providers Molina Healthcare (MOH), Centene (CNC), and Elevance Health (ELV) added 7.5%, 5.9%, and 5.4%, respectively.

(MOH), (CNC), and (ELV) added 7.5%, 5.9%, and 5.4%, respectively. A shift toward stocks with a better chance of withstanding a potential recession also helped boost shares of discount retailer Dollar General (DG), which advanced 4.7%. The company could be in a good position to attract cost-conscious shoppers if an economic downturn materializes and consumer sentiment continues to deteriorate. -Michael Bromberg

Major Indexes Tracking for 6th Down Week in 7 The major U.S. stock indexes came into Thursday’s session in positive territory for the week. But after today’s tariffs-fueled rout, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are on pace to post weekly losses for the sixth time in the past seven weeks. The S&P 500 is down 3.3% so far this week, while the Nasdaq Composite has given up 4.5% through Thursday’s close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 2.5% so far this week, putting it on track for its fifth weekly loss in the last seven. TradingView So far this year, the Dow has retreated 4.7%, while the S&P 500 is down 8.3% and the Nasdaq has plunged 14%.

Just How Bad Was Thursday’s Selloff? The magnitude of today’s sell-off was unusual. Here are some data points that explain just how rough a day it was for the stock market: The S&P 500 fell 4.8%, its worst day since June 11, 2020, when concerns about a second wave of Covid-19 infections dashed hopes for a quick return to pre-pandemic life. Aside from that day, there have been only 4 worse days this decade, and all of them were in March 2020 at the height of the Covid rout. The benchmark index is now at its lowest level since August.

fell 4.8%, its worst day since June 11, 2020, when concerns about a second wave of Covid-19 infections dashed hopes for a quick return to pre-pandemic life. Aside from that day, there have been only 4 worse days this decade, and all of them were in March 2020 at the height of the Covid rout. The benchmark index is now at its lowest level since August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,679 points, its fourth-largest decline this decade and also the biggest since June 2020. The blue-chip index lost nearly 4% in Thursday’s sell-off, putting it about 430 points—or 1%—from a technical correction. The Dow is at its lowest level since September

fell 1,679 points, its fourth-largest decline this decade and also the biggest since June 2020. The blue-chip index lost nearly 4% in Thursday’s sell-off, putting it about 430 points—or 1%—from a technical correction. The Dow is at its lowest level since September The Nasdaq Composite plummeted nearly 6%, its worst day since March 16, 2020, the day after the Federal Reserve dropped interest rates to near zero. With Thursday’s losses, the index sits nearly 18% off its recent highs, putting it perilously close to a bear market. The tech-heavy index is trading at its lowest level since August. A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday morning. Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images Apple stock plummeted 9.4%, also its worst day since March 2020. The decline wiped about $315 billion off the iPhone maker’s market capitalization, the second-largest decline for a single stock on record.

plummeted 9.4%, also its worst day since March 2020. The decline wiped about $315 billion off the iPhone maker’s market capitalization, the second-largest decline for a single stock on record. The Magnificent Seven as a whole lost a little over $1 trillion in market value, about equal to the combined market caps of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Netflix (NFLX)—the S&P 500’s 13th and 19th largest companies, respectively—and slightly less than the gross domestic product of Saudi Arabia.

as a whole lost a little over $1 trillion in market value, about equal to the combined market caps of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Netflix (NFLX)—the S&P 500’s 13th and 19th largest companies, respectively—and slightly less than the gross domestic product of Saudi Arabia. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 6.6%, its worst day since June 2020.

fell 6.6%, its worst day since June 2020. Thursday’s sell-off was incredibly broad. The equal-weight S&P 500 declined 4.8%, its biggest drop since June 2020 and enough to put it in a correction. Four in five S&P 500 stocks lost ground on Thursday, with about 15% of the index recording declines of 10% or more.

-Colin Laidley

Lamb Weston Soars on Strong Earnings Lamb Weston (LW), a maker of french fries and other potato products, was a notable outlier during Thursday’s selloff. Shares of the company gained 10% to lead S&P 500 gainers after the potato processing giant reported better-than-expected quarterly results. Lamb Weston reported fiscal third-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.10 on net sales of $1.52 billion. Analysts polled by Visible Alpha were looking for $0.86 and $1.48 billion, respectively. “As a result of the actions we took in early fiscal 2025 to drive operational and cost efficiencies, we closed the quarter with sequentially improved volume trends and profitability metrics that were in line with our previously updated fiscal 2025 outlook,” CEO Mike Smith said, noting the company expects “headwinds from soft restaurant traffic to persist.” Smith assumed the top role at Lamb Weston in January. The company has faced pressure from activist investor Jana Partners. TradingView Despite today’s surge, Lamb Weston shares have lost more than 40% of their value over the past 12 months. -Aaron McDade

These Two Retail Stocks Are Holding Up Today Two discount retail shares managed to avoid the steeper dropoffs seen by some other big retailers in the wake of the Trump administration’s latest tariffs. TJX Cos. (TJX) shares edged higher in recent trading Thursday. Ross Stores (ROST) ticked a bit lower, but its decline was notably smaller than those of Target (TGT), Best Buy (BBY), and Five Below (FIVE), all of which were down more than 10%. A T.J. Maxx store in New York City. Shelby Knowles / Bloomberg / Getty Images Citi analysts upgraded Ross and TJX, parent company of T.J. Maxx and HomeGoods, to “buy” ratings on Thursday. They lifted their price target on the latter stock to $140, in line with the Street’s consensus according to Visible Alpha, from $128, saying the retailer is “as well positioned as ever.” “Tariffs are likely to create significant disruption in the [market], greatly increasing the availability of product available to off-pricers at attractive prices,” the analysts wrote. “At the same time, a potentially weakening consumer environment will mean more consumers are likely to trade down to the off-price channel in search of value.” Oppenheimer and UBS analysts also issued notes Thursday on the retail industry, saying giants like Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST) are likely to weather the tariff storm as well. -Aaron McDade

Bank Stocks Slide as Tariffs Raise Recession Risks Shares of major U.S. banks were sharply lower on Thursday as Wall Street reacted to President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs that economists warn could stunt economic growth and reignite inflation. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index (BKX) was down nearly 9% in recent trading. A decline of that size would represent the index’s worst day since the regional banking crisis of March 2023, when the collapse of Silicon Valley and Signature Banks coincided with an 11% drop for the benchmark index. Regional banks Western Alliance (WAL) and Zions Bancorp (ZION), both down double digits Thursday, were leading the index’s decliners. Among the largest U.S. banks, Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) were the hardest hit, falling 12% and 11%, respectively. Shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM), one of the world’s largest banks, were down 6%, while investment banks Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) were both off more than 8%. Banks aren’t directly affected by Trump’s tariffs, which apply first to companies that buy and sell goods. However, like all services, banking benefits from a healthy economy in which businesses and consumers are borrowing, investing, and spending. Economists have warned that the new tariffs, which could lift America’s overall tariff rate to its highest level in a century, threaten to slow economic growth, reduce investment, and weigh on consumer spending. Many investors and economists are concerned the tariff fallout could result in stagflation and complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring inflation down to its 2% target without pushing the economy into a recession. Deutsche Bank analysts on Wednesday warned that the tariffs as outlined could shave 1 to 1.5 percentage points off U.S. gross domestic product growth this year—”meaningfully raising recession risks”—and tack a similar amount onto the core inflation rate. -Colin Laidley

Equal-Weight S&P 500 on Track to Enter Correction The equal-weight S&P 500 tumbled Thursday, putting the index on track to close in a correction as U.S. stocks reeled from President Trump’s announcement of far-reaching tariffs. The equal-weight S&P 500 fell as much as 4.4% Thursday, its biggest intraday decline since June 2022 when inflation was running at a 40-year high. The index was down 4% recently and on track to close in correction territory, defined as a 10% decline from its recent high. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday. Charly Triballeau / AFP / Getty Images The equal-weight S&P 500, as its name suggests, gives equal weight to every component of the index, meaning a 1% move in the share price of the index’s smallest company has as much impact as a 1% move in the price of its largest. The standard capitalization-weighted S&P 500, on the other hand, assigns stocks an index weight that is proportionate to the company’s market value. The equal-weight S&P 500’s correction signals the current sell-off is broader than the declines earlier this year. The Magnificent Seven, which led the stock market’s gains throughout 2023 and 2024, entered a correction in late February as increasing economic uncertainty and moderating earnings growth compelled investors to take profits. A week later, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also slipped into a correction, followed by the cap-weighted S&P 500 a week later. About 80% of the stocks in the S&P 500 were trading in the red on Thursday afternoon after President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs that economists and investors worry will slow growth while raising prices for businesses and consumers.

Bitcoin, Cyrpto Stocks Retreat After Tariff News Bitcoin extended its recent retreat Thursday, with the price of the leading cryptocurrency falling in the wake of President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcement. Bitcoin was trading below $82,000 after the late-Wednesday news of new tariffs that shook global markets and eroded investors’ interest in risk assets. The digital currency was around $88,000 before Trump unveiled the new trade measures late yesterday afternoon. The news also hit crypto-related stocks. Strategy (MSTR), the Bitcoin buyer that recently changed its name from MicroStrategy, was off 9%. Crypto exchange Coinbase Global (COIN) fell more than 7%, while trading platform Robinhood Markets (HOOD) slipped about 10%. Crypto mining company Mara Holdings (MARA) fell 9%. Bitcoin’s retreat extends a slide from six-digit prices last seen in February following a runup driven by optimism about cryptocurrency in the wake of Trump’s election. The total market cap of cryptocurrency, recently around $2.6 trillion, has fallen some 6% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data. -David Marino-Nachison

Oppenheimer Recommends Defensive Consumer Stocks Investors should consider defensively oriented consumer stocks over discretionary shares after President Trump’s latest tariff announcement, Oppenheimer analysts said Thursday. The analysts in a note said stocks like Arm & Hammer brand owner Church & Dwight (CHD), Costco Wholesale (COST), over-the-counter products company Prestige Consumer Healthcare (PBH), and Walmart (WMT) could hold up better than those of companies like appliance maker Sharkninja (SN) and Target (TGT). “Assuming the announced tariffs come to fruition, we clearly favor our defensive Outperform-rated names along with Ulta Beauty (ULTA) over more discretionary names” in the short term, Oppenheimer’s note said. If material tariffs stay in place and retailers are forced to raise prices, Oppenheimer said, consumer spending could take a hit. Some retailers, however, might see a near-term boost in spending as shoppers look to spend before price hikes arrive. Some beauty products makers, such as e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) and Helen of Troy (HELE), could find it hard to maintain profit margins under the tariff regime, even with higher prices and productivity, according to Oppenheimer. -Jordyn Bradley

Treasury Yields Approach 6-Month Low Treasury yields tumbled on Thursday to nearly a 6-month low, a day after President Trump announced sweeping tariffs that shook stock markets around the world. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which affects borrowing costs on all sorts of loans, tumbled Thursday morning to as low as 4.00%, down from 4.20% late yesterday and at its lowest level since mid-October. The bond rally—when bond prices go up, yields fall—came amid a global stock sell-off that put the S&P 500 down more than 4% in late-morning trading. TradingView Trump on Wednesday afternoon announced a 10% flat rate tariff on nearly all U.S. imports, as well as steeper country-level rates aimed at America’s largest trading partners, including China, the European Union, and Japan. The tariffs, Trump says, are meant to raise federal revenue and revive American manufacturing. Economists warn the levies could have unintended consequences, including higher prices for businesses and consumers, lower domestic investment, and softer consumer spending, all of which would slow the economy. Trump campaigned on lower interest rates, and since returning to the White House has repeatedly called on the Federal Reserve to cut rates. The 10-year Treasury yield has declined since Trump’s inauguration, but not for the reason he might like. Trump’s tariffs and government cost-cutting initiative have raised the risk of the U.S. entering a recession, an outcome that could force the Federal Reserve to intervene by lowering its federal funds rate. His policies have also rattled financial markets, sending investors into traditional safe-haven assets like Treasurys and gold, which has notched a series of record highs amid this year’s market turmoil. Lower Treasury yields tend to translate into lower consumer rates on products like mortgages and car loans, which have been hovering at multi-decade highs ever since the Federal Reserve began raising rates in March 2022 to tame surging inflation. However, Trump’s tariffs threaten to slow economic growth and stoke inflation, raising concerns that the U.S. is on a collision course with 1970s-style stagflation, a scenario in which the Fed may not have much leeway to cut rates and stimulate the economy. -Colin Laidley

Coca-Cola, General Mills Lift Staples Amid Broader Selloff Stock-market investors are playing defense today. The major U.S. indexes are in retreat Thursday morning following Donald Trump’s announcement of wide-ranging tariffs, with all but one of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors in the red. The sole exception is the consumer staples sector, considered defensive in nature. Consumer staples stocks are broadly rising, including Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Procter & Gamble (PG), and frozen potato company Lamb Weston (LW), the latter which is among the morning’s top gainers in the benchmark index, rising nearly 8% after reporting results. Some other big consumer-oriented brands are rising today, including McDonald’s (MCD) and Coca-Cola (KO), as well as grocer Kroger (KR), and cereal maker General Mills (GIS). Walmart’s (WMT) shares ticked lower. Meanwhile, discretionary and tech shares are dropping, the former sector retreating more than 5% in recent action. Among the index’s top decliners today are housewares company Williams Sonoma (WSM), consumer electronics retailer Best Buy (BBY) and game and toy company Hasbro (HAS).

-David Marino-Nachison

Nike Tumbles as Tariffs Hit Asian Suppliers Nike (NKE) shares plunged in early trading after President Donald Trump imposed steep reciprocal tariffs on Vietnam and other Asian countries where the sneaker giant makes most of its products. The U.S. imposed a 46% tariff on Vietnamese goods, 32% on Indonesia, and 49% on Cambodia. President Trump also announced 34% levies on imports from China in addition to previously imposed 20% tariffs on goods from Asia’s largest economy. According to its fiscal 2024 annual report, factories in Vietnam, Indonesia, and China manufactured approximately 50%, 27%, and 18% of its footwear, respectively, while factories in Vietnam, China, and Cambodia made 28%, 16%, and 15% of apparel. “Potential incremental Vietnam tariffs appear under-appreciated by investors, & could prove a notable headwind given significant sourcing exposure across our coverage,” Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton recently wrote, noting that apart from Nike, sneaker companies Allbirds (BIRD), Skechers (SKX) and On Holding (ONON) are “potentially most exposed” from levies imposed on the Southeast Asian country. Nike shares were down 11% in early trading, while On Holding, Skechers, and Allbirds each dropped more than 12%. -Nisha Gopalan

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Markets News, March 4, 2025: Stocks Close Lower as Tariffs, Economic Concerns Weigh on Sentiment; Banks Lead Broad-Based Decline

These Were the Big S&P 500 Movers on Tuesday Decliners Best Buy (BBY) shares plunging more than 13%. Best Buy’s CEO predicted increasing prices for U.S. consumers as tariffs go into effect on imports from China and Mexico. Enphase Energy (ENPH) shares jumped 9.4%, notching Tuesday’s top performance in the S&N 500. Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) shares climbed 5.6% following reports that the pharmacy operator is close to a $10 billion buyout deal.. The S&p 500 on Tuesday closed at its lowest level since Election Day on Nov. 5. At just under 5,780, the benchmark index is down 6% from its all-time high, which was set less than two weeks ago.. Concerns about the effects of President. Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico, stubborn inflation, and the. path ahead for the AI trade have pulled the major indexes back from post-election highs.

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These Were the Big S&P 500 Movers on Tuesday Decliners Best Buy (BBY) shares posted the steepest decline in the S&P 500, plunging more than 13% after the electronics retailer released its fiscal fourth-quarter results. Although quarterly sales and profits came in ahead of forecasts, Best Buy’s CEO predicted increasing prices for U.S. consumers as tariffs go into effect on imports from China and Mexico, the top two sources in the company’s supply chain. A Best Buy store on Black Friday in Montebello, California, November 29, 2024. Etienne Laurent / AFP / Getty Images KKR & Co . (KKR) said it plans to raise $1.5 billion through an offering of mandatory convertible preferred stock. The private equity firm intends to use the proceeds of the transaction to bolster its core portfolio amid expectations for increasing deal volumes under the pro-business policies of the current presidential administration. KKR shares dropped 9.2%.

. (KKR) said it plans to raise $1.5 billion through an offering of mandatory convertible preferred stock. The private equity firm intends to use the proceeds of the transaction to bolster its core portfolio amid expectations for increasing deal volumes under the pro-business policies of the current presidential administration. KKR shares dropped 9.2%. Stocks of companies in the packaging industry lost ground as concerns escalated about the impact of tariffs. Shares of containerboard manufacturer International Paper (IP) fell 7.3%, while shares of fellow paper packaging provider Smurfit WestRock (SW) lost 6.8% after its CEO said the new trade policies would limit the competitivity of a big mill in Canada that exports to the U.S. Advancers Enphase Energy (ENPH) shares jumped 9.4%, notching Tuesday’s top performance in the S&P 500. The push higher marked a reversal for the solar technology company’s stock following a stretch of steep declines dating back to the beginning of last week. The U.S.-based firm could be positioned to benefit from tariffs levied on solar products imported from China, and a report published Tuesday by Zacks Equities Research highlighted positive revisions to consensus earnings and revenue estimates for the current quarter.

(ENPH) shares jumped 9.4%, notching Tuesday’s top performance in the S&P 500. The push higher marked a reversal for the solar technology company’s stock following a stretch of steep declines dating back to the beginning of last week. The U.S.-based firm could be positioned to benefit from tariffs levied on solar products imported from China, and a report published Tuesday by Zacks Equities Research highlighted positive revisions to consensus earnings and revenue estimates for the current quarter. Shares of server maker Super Micro Computer (SMCI) also staged a recovery, rising 8.5%. The gains for the server maker’s volatile stock followed three days of heavy losses as concerns intensified about the possible impact of trade policy on U.S. artificial intelligence players and investors expressed wariness about the AI trade broadly.

(SMCI) also staged a recovery, rising 8.5%. The gains for the server maker’s volatile stock followed three days of heavy losses as concerns intensified about the possible impact of trade policy on U.S. artificial intelligence players and investors expressed wariness about the AI trade broadly. Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) shares climbed 5.6% following reports that the pharmacy operator is close to a $10 billion buyout deal with private equity firm Sycamore Partners. The Wall Street Journal reported that Sycamore would pay between $11.30 and $11.40 per share in cash for Walgreens, noting that the firm plans to hold onto the core U.S. retail business while selling or taking public other parts of the company. -Michael Bromberg

S&P 500 Gives Back All of Its Post-Election Gains U.S. stocks’ post-election run has come full circle. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed at its lowest level since Election Day on Nov. 5. At just under 5,780, the benchmark index is down 6% from its all-time closing high, which was set less than two weeks ago. Concerns about the effects of trade policy, with President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico taking effect today, are currently in focus, but factors including stubborn inflation, the path ahead for interest rates and the health of the AI trade have also weighed on markets, pulling major indexes back from post-election highs. The tech-focused Nasdaq is also below its Nov. 5 close; so is the small-cap Russell 2000. The Dow industrials are still holding onto post-election gains—but it, along with the other three indexes mentioned here, are all in the red this year. Concerns about the state of the US economy and markets have driven some investors to consider European equities. TradingView “Considerable downside risks to the growth outlook are mounting,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a note published earlier today. “Trade policy uncertainty has hit historical levels, financial conditions are tightening, sentiment indicators signal weaker growth momentum, and more trade actions are likely to come.” Trump is set to speak later today. His speech comes ahead of closely watched job-market data due Friday; personal spending fell in January, according to recently released data, while the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge suggested progress against inflation. -David Marino-Nachison

Auto Sector Stands to Be Hard Hit by Tariffs Tariffs are expected to dramatically increase costs for automakers Ford (F), General Motors (GM), and Stellantis (STLA). All three manufacture parts and assemble cars in factories across North America. The North American auto industry is so intertwined that the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration doesn’t even distinguish between Canadian-made and American-made parts when calculating how much of each car is domestic. Canada and Mexico accounted for 47% of U.S. automobile imports and 54% of car parts imports in 2023. They’re also major markets for U.S. auto exports, with the two receiving 75% of America’s exported car parts that year. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michael Dean on Tuesday estimated that Jeep and Chrysler maker Stellantis could take a 3.44 billion euro hit to its earnings this year. TradingView Stellantis shares fell more than 4% on Tuesday, as did shares of General Motors. Ford closed nearly 3% lower. Shares of each of the automakers have lost ground since the start of the year. -Colin Laidley

What Companies are Saying About the Impact of Tariffs Some Target prices could soon rise after tariffs on Mexican imports are enacted, the retailer’s CEO said Tuesday. Target (TGT) will try to shield consumers from as many price increases as it can, but charging more will be necessary for fresh produce and some other categories, Brian Cornell said on CNBC Tuesday morning. Target, along with many U.S. grocers, is dependent on Mexico for fresh produce during the winter, Cornell said. The supply chain for fresh fruits and vegetables is “really short,” which means prices could go up within days, he said. Bananas, strawberries and avocados are among the items that could see higher prices. “We’re going to try to make sure we can do everything we can to protect pricing,” he said on CNBC. “But if there’s a 25% tariff, those prices will go up.” Target has reduced how much it imports from China. A few years ago, more than 60% of imports came from the country. That’s now down to 30% and on track to hit 25%, he said. A number of other companies have also diversified their supply chain to avoid paying more in tariffs, including Steve Madden (SHOO) and Newell Brands (NWL), the latter which sells Yankee candles and Graco baby gear. Mattel (MAT) CEO Ynon Kreiz said Tuesday on CNBC that the toy company is on a years-long journey to diversify its supply chain so it can respond to tariffs and other changing market conditions. And some companies say they have the wherewithal to hold off on raising prices, at least initially: Chipotle (CMG) CEO Scott Boatwright said over the weekend that the burrito giant will absorb higher import costs. Best Buy (BBY) imports no more than 3% of its merchandise, but many vendors in the tech industry source from China and Mexico, CEO Corie Barry said Tuesday morning. They’ll pass on at least some of the cost of tariffs to Best Buy, making price increases for consumers “highly likely,” she said on an earnings conference call. The pre-existing 10% tariff on goods from China could cost Best Buy about 1 percentage point in comparable sales over the course of a year, Barry said, assuming that people buy fewer items because they cost more. If the tariffs put in effect Tuesday endure, the effect could be more significant, but it’s hard to gauge how consumers will react, Barry said. “We’ve never seen this kind of breadth of tariffs,” Barry said, according to a transcript made available by AlphaSense. “It’s difficult for us to understand elasticities perfectly because you don’t have anything predictive in our history.”

Tesla Tumbles as BofA Cuts Price Target on Stock Tesla (TSLA) shares slid again Tuesday amid worries about tariffs, weak Chinese sales and souring brand sentiment, with analysts at Bank of America lowering their price target for the stock. The Trump administration’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which went into effect Tuesday, “pose significant risk” to North American automakers including Tesla, Bank of America analysts said. Declining European sales have also put pressure on the stock, they said, along with “sentiment on the brand potentially souring” as CEO Elon Musk has made headlines for his role in the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency. Sales of Tesla’s China-made vehicles have slipped as well, falling 49.2% year-over-year in February, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing data from the China Passenger Car Association. BofA reiterated a “neutral” rating for the stock, but lowered its price target to $380 from $490, just slightly above the average of analysts polled by Visible Alpha at $368. The electric vehicle maker’s stock was down 4.4% at $272 in recent trading and has lost about a third of its value since the start of 2025. The stock had risen to a record high around $488 in in mid-December amid optimism that Musk’s close relationship with Trump would benefit the EV maker. Shares have since given up almost their entire post-election gain. TradingView The reduced price target from BofA comes just a day after Morgan Stanley named the company its “Top Pick” in the U.S. automobile sector, saying Tesla’s lower-than-expected deliveries were “not particularly narrative changing.” -Andrew Kessel

Sneaker Maker On Holdings Surges as Global Sales Jump On Holding (ONON) shares advanced when the Swiss sportswear maker posted better-than-expected results as sales climbed in all its global markets.1 The company, part-owned by tennis great Roger Federer, reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 0.33 Swiss francs ($0.37), with revenue jumping nearly 36% year-over-year to CHF606.6 million ($681.1 million). Both exceeded Visible Alpha forecasts. Sales rose in every region, including by 28% to CHF385.1 million in the Americas. Executive co-chairman David Allemann said On’s “partnerships with icons like Roger Federer, Zendaya, and FKA twigs have propelled On to become a beloved brand.” On sees full-year net sales of at least CHF2.94 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.0% to 17.5%. TradingView U.S.-traded shares of On Holding were up 5% in recent trading and have increased nearly 50% over the past 12 months.

What the White House Expects to Accomplish With Tariffs Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick made sweeping promises for what President Donald Trump’s tariff-heavy economic policies will accomplish.

Howard Lutnick speaking during an event at the White House on Monday. Samuel Corum / Sipa/Bloomberg via Getty Images Speaking in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday morning, Lutnick said the U.S. will have more manufacturing, lower taxes, a balanced federal budget and lower borrowing costs as a result of taxing imported goods.

Experts have warned that tariffs will push up the cost of living, but Lutnick dismissed those concerns as “whining and complaining.” Read the full article here.

Best Buy Plunges as Retailers Cites Tariff, Inflation Concerns Best Buy (BBY) shares plunged nearly 15% Tuesday morning to lead S&P 500 decliners as the electronics retailer warned that new tariffs and inflation will negatively impact sales. In a transcript of its fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter earnings call supplied by AlphaSense, CEO Corie Barry explained that the company anticipates “our vendors across our entire assortment will pass along some level of tariff costs to retailers, making price increases for American consumers.” Barry called the tariffs situation “highly dynamic” with “uncertainty about the duration.” The CEO added that Best Buy was “operating in an uneven environment and expected there would be industry pressure,” and that even though it believes consumers will remain resilient, they are “still dealing with high inflation.” The comments came after the company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.58, with revenue falling nearly 5% year-over-year to $13.95 billion, in part because fiscal 2025 was 13 weeks long and fiscal 2024 was 14 weeks. Comparable store sales grew 0.5%. All three were better than Visible Alpha forecasts. Best Buy sees full-year adjusted EPS of $6.20 to $6.60, revenue of $41.4 billion to $42.2 billion, and comparable store sales in the range of flat to up 2.0%. However, the company pointed out that its guidance did not take into account recently enacted or proposed tariffs. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha were looking for adjusted EPS of $6.60, revenue of $41.77 billion, and comparable store sales growth of 1.81%.

-Bill McColl

Target Warns About Consumer, Tariff Uncertainty Target (TGT) posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter results but warned that the uncertainty around tariffs would weigh on current-quarter results. The company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.41 on revenue that declined 3% year-over-year to $30.92 billion. Analysts polled by Visible Alpha expected $2.26 and $30.77 billion, respectively.

Target’s comparable sales rose 1.5%, above projections of 1.39% growth. In January, the company lifted its comparable sales projection to 1.5% growth from “approximately flat” following Q3 on the back of a stronger-than-expected holiday shopping season.

“In light of ongoing consumer uncertainty and a small decline in February Net Sales, combined with tariff uncertainty and the expected timing of certain costs within the fiscal year, the Company expects to see meaningful year-over-year profit pressure in its first quarter relative to the remainder of the year,” Target said. For the full year, Target sees net sales growth “in a range around 1 percent,” comparable sales growth “in a range around flat,” and adjusted EPS between $8.80 and $9.80. Analysts were looking for sales growth of 2.66%, comparable sales growth of 1.81%, and adjusted EPS of $9.30. TradingView Target shares were down more than 5% in early trading and have lost nearly a quarter of their value over the past 12 months. -Nisha Gopalan

Walgreens Jumps as Company Nears Deal to be Taken Private Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) shares are jumped in premarket trading Tuesday after a report indicated the troubled drugstore chain is nearing a deal with Sycamore Partners to be taken private for around $10 billion. According to The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, the drugstore company and the private equity firm are targeting a completion of the transaction as soon as Thursday barring a “last-minute snag” that derails the deal. The Journal reported that Sycamore would pay between $11.30 a share and $11.40 a share in cash for Walgreens and the deal would include “contingent value rights that would increase the value if certain targets are later reached.” Walgreens shares were up more than 5% at $10.80 ahead of the opening bell. The Journal also reported that if the deal passes, Sycamore would keep the core U.S. retail business and sell off or take public the other parts of the company. Walgreens and Sycamore Partners didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Walgreens shares had been rising this year on previous reports that the private-equity firm was in talks to take the drugstore chain private. The company has been struggling, announcing in October a plan to shutter some 1,200 “underperforming” stores over the next three years and temporarily suspending its quarterly dividend to conserve cash earlier this year. Walgreens shares have gained 10% this year but have lost half their value in the 12 months through Monday. -Nisha Gopalan

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Markets News, March 3, 2025: Stocks Tumble as Trump Says Tariffs Set to Take Effect; Nvidia Plunges as Volatile Run Continues

These Were the Big S&P 500 Movers on Monday Decliners Shares of server maker Super Micro Computer (SMCI) plunged 13% Monday. Nvidia (NVDA) shares sank 8.7%, extending losses last week as concerns intensified about the sustainability of AI spending. Weyerhaeuser (WY), which is among the world’s largest private owners of timberlands, jumped 4.3% after President Trump signed an executive order over the weekend aimed at promoting domestic timber and lumber production. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has solid fundamentals despite recently sluggish sales and dips in profit margins, Morgan Stanley analysts said. The company is poised to reduce its expenses by adopting technology, use this savings to “underprice” competitors and bolster its finances through expansion, they said. It plans to invest $100 billion in U.S.-based chip manufacturing facilities, CEO C.C. Wei announced on Monday alongside President Trump. It will build three new chip fabrication facilities, two advanced packaging facilities and a research and development center in Arizona.

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These Were the Big S&P 500 Movers on Monday Decliners Shares of server maker Super Micro Computer (SMCI) plunged 13% Monday, leading losses on the S&P 500. Although the volatile stock posted gains in the middle of last week after Supermicro met a deadline for filing its delayed annual report, Mizuho analysts warned of increasing competition and declining market share in the AI server market.

(SMCI) plunged 13% Monday, leading losses on the S&P 500. Although the volatile stock posted gains in the middle of last week after Supermicro met a deadline for filing its delayed annual report, Mizuho analysts warned of increasing competition and declining market share in the AI server market. Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA) shares sank 8.7%, extending losses last week as concerns intensified about the sustainability of AI spending and the possible impact of tariffs and chip export curbs.

(NVDA) shares sank 8.7%, extending losses last week as concerns intensified about the sustainability of AI spending and the possible impact of tariffs and chip export curbs. APA Corp. (APA) shares lost 8.7%, broadening a downturn for the stock that began last week after the oil and gas exploration firm missed fourth-quarter profit expectations. Although APA enjoyed a production boost in the Permian Basin following last year’s acquisition of competitor Callon Petroleum, declining commodity prices and increasing expenses weighed on the company’s performance. Advancers The top performance among S&P 500 constituents Monday came from shares of insurance company Erie Indemnity (ERIE), which advanced 5.1%. Monday’s push higher added to gains posted last week after the insurer reported better-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter, boosted by increased management fee revenue from policy issuance and renewal services.

(ERIE), which advanced 5.1%. Monday’s push higher added to gains posted last week after the insurer reported better-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter, boosted by increased management fee revenue from policy issuance and renewal services. Shares of real estate investment trust Weyerhaeuser (WY), which is among the world’s largest private owners of timberlands, jumped 4.3% after President Trump signed an executive order over the weekend aimed at promoting domestic timber and lumber production.

(WY), which is among the world’s largest private owners of timberlands, jumped 4.3% after President Trump signed an executive order over the weekend aimed at promoting domestic timber and lumber production. Hershey (HSY) shares added 3.4% on Monday, clawing back losses posted last week as the possibility of cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) weighed on consumer staples stocks. -Michael Bromberg

Chipotle Rises After Morgan Stanley Turns Bullish Chipotle stock rose Monday, lifted by an upbeat assessment by analysts at Morgan Stanley. Burrito chain Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has solid fundamentals despite recently sluggish sales and dips in profit margins, Morgan Stanley analysts said. The company is poised to reduce its expenses by adopting technology, use this savings to “underprice” competitors and bolster its finances through expansion, they said. The shares closed 0.7% higher, bucking a steep sell-off for U.S. on Monday, though they’re down about 10% so far this year. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $70, a few dollars above the average price target among analysts polled by Visible Alpha and nearly 30% above Monday’s close. It also upgraded the shares to “overweight” from “equal weight.” “As the stock has continued to fade on weak sales data and growth stock pressures, an opportunity to step in has presented itself if one thinks these are short term headwinds,” the analysts wrote. “We’re optimistic about how it evolves.” Morgan Stanley said Chipotle has historically raised prices more slowly than its peers, and most recently, demonstrated a commitment to value by ensuring customers are given substantial portion sizes. Chipotle will initially absorb higher expenses incurred under tariffs rather than raise prices, CEO Scott Boatwright told NBC over the weekend. Due to its investment in automation and AI, Chipotle “may be in the unique position of underpricing the competition for many years to come, to maintain or even widen price gaps and protect value prop for the long run, which should in turn help traffic,” Morgan Stanley’s note said. -Sarina Trangle

TSMC Plans to Invest $100B in US Chip Manufacturing Chipmaking giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) plans to invest $100 billion in U.S.-based chip manufacturing facilities, CEO C.C. Wei announced alongside President Trump on Monday. The company said it will build three new chip fabrication plants, two advanced packaging facilities, and a research and development center at its complex in Arizona, growing the company’s total investment at the site to $165 billion. “The most powerful AI chips in the world will be made right here in America,” Trump said at a televised press conference. “It’s a matter of economic security, it’s also a matter of national security,” he added. President Donald Trump and C.C. Wei, CEO of TSMC, during an investment announcement at the White House on Monday, March 3, 2025. Samuel Corum / Sipa / Bloomberg / Getty Images TSMC is the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturer, and expanding its U.S. production aligns with the Trump administration’s stated goal of ensuring AI chips are designed and manufactured domestically. Trump reiterated Monday plans to announce tariffs of 25% or more on semiconductors and other imports on April 2. Tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico will begin Tuesday, Trump said. The first factory at TSMC’s Arizona complex began production in the fourth quarter of 2024 and was recently in talks to produce Nvidia (NVDA) Blackwell chips. Two plants currently under construction are expected to begin production in 2028 and “by the end of the decade,” according to the company’s website. The complex was awarded $6.6 billion in federal funding in 2024 through the CHIPS and Science Act, a 2022 piece of legislation supported by then-President Biden that earmarked over $50 billion for investment in semiconductor research and manufacturing facilities in the U.S.

U.S.-listed shares of TSMC fell 4% Monday as Nvidia and other AI and chip stocks lost ground amid concerns about policies on tariffs and chip export curbs. -Andrew Kessel

What Wall Street Thinks of Target Ahead of Earnings Tuesday Target (TGT) is set to report fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday morning, with analysts seeing substantial upside for the retailer’s stock. Analysts’ ratings are split, with five “buy” and seven “hold” ratings among the brokers who currently follow Target and are tracked by Visible Alpha. Their average price target is around $144. Target shares fell nearly 3% to around $121 on Monday amid a broader downturn on Wall Street. The retailer is expected to report revenue of $30.77 billion for the quarter and adjusted earnings per share of $2.26, down 3.6% and 24%, respectively, from the same time a year ago. At the same time, analysts expect comparable store sales to rise 1.39% year-over-year, a consensus figure that Morgan Stanley analysts noted this week has risen since Target lifted its comparable sales projection in January. Analysts from JPMorgan, Oppenheimer, and Morgan Stanley all said in recent notes that they expect Target will likely follow some of its retail rivals like Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) and remain conservative in their first-quarter and 2025 projections. Despite a potential conservative 2025 forecast—and concerns over the impact of tariffs and inflation on discretionary spending—Oppenheimer analysts said they “continue to believe shares have bottomed” and said they would “take advantage of any volatility” after the report. They noted that Target shares have fallen after two of the past four earnings reports, with double-digit swings after four of the last five. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley analysts also raised the question of succession planning entering 2025, as CEO Brian Cornell recently passed 10 years in the top job. JPMorgan analysts said Cornell planned to stay for three more years as of September 2022, and said they believe an internal candidate to replace him is “most likely.” TradingView Target shares have lost 22% over the past year, significantly lagging the performance of Walmart stock over the period. -Aaron McDade

AI Trade Continues to Falter Nvidia (NVDA) slumped into bear territory Monday, trading more than 20% below its January all-time high. Nvidia topped earnings estimates last week, but its meteoric rise and $3 trillion valuation left the chipmaker little room to disappoint. Narrowing profit margins spooked investors, prompting semiconductor and AI stocks to sell off last week. The contagion continued on Monday, with fellow chipmaker Broadcom (AVGO), slated to report earnings on Thursday, following Nvidia stock lower. Shares of AI server maker Super Micro Computer (SMCI) plunged, as did nuclear power providers Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra (VST). Wall Street’s bullishness has been tempered lately by uncertainty about the outlook for the U.S. economy and the business of AI. Inflation has appeared stickier than expected, and consumer confidence has declined amid concerns about the consequences of Trump’s tariff policies. The January release of Chinese start-up DeepSeek’s R1 reasoning model, which its developers said could compete with the most advanced U.S. models at a fraction of the cost, injected fresh uncertainty into the AI trade. AI infrastructure stocks—the chipmakers, server makers, and energy providers who have benefited from the build-out of AI data center capacity—plummeted on concerns that DeepSeek’s efficiency would undercut spending. -Colin Laidley

Why European Stocks are Beating the S&P 500 This Year European equities have this year outperformed U.S. stocks by the widest margin since 2000, according to a recent report from Morgan Stanley. European stocks have rallied on hopes that increased defense spending and an end to the war in Ukraine could stimulate growth. Recent economic indicators have pointed to a stabilizing European economy that could get more support this year from interest-rate cuts. Read the full article here. -Colin Laidley

Kroger Stock Falls as CEO Resigns After Conduct Probe Kroger (KR) shares lost ground Monday after the grocery chain said that CEO and Chairman Rodney McMullen has resigned after a probe on his personal conduct. McMullen is stepping down “following a Board investigation of his personal conduct that, while unrelated to the business, was inconsistent with Kroger’s Policy on Business Ethics,” the company said. Kroger said it “was made aware of certain personal conduct by Mr. McMullen” on Feb. 21 “and immediately retained outside independent counsel to conduct an investigation.” Kroger also said McMullen’s conduct wasn’t related to its “financial performance, operations or reporting, and it did not involve any Kroger associates.” Kroger declined to comment further Monday. Lead Director Ronald Sargent was appointed board chair and interim CEO, according to a news release. McMullen joined Kroger in 1978 as a part-time stock clerk in Lexington, Kentucky, according to his biography on the Kroger website, and became CEO in 2014. Several CEOs in recent years have lost their jobs for personal relationships or other issues that ran afoul of company policies. According to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, seven CEOs left due to allegations of misconduct in 2024 through October last year. TradingView Shares of Kroger, which is scheduled to report earnings Thursday, were down 2.5% in recent trading. The stock has gained nearly 30% in the past 12 months.

Wedbush Calls Palantir Top Stock to Own in 2025 Palantir (PLTR) shares climbed Monday as Wedbush analysts called the stock one of its “top names to own in 2025.” Shares were up about 2% in recent trading, after jumping more than 6% earlier in the session. Despite recent losses, the stock has added about 14% since the start of the year and gained 250% from a year ago. Shares of the Palantir lost close to one-third of their value since hitting a record high last month after the Washington Post reported the Trump administration directed Pentagon officials to trim the U.S. defense budget by 8% annually for the next five years. The report raised worries Palantir’s sales could take a hit, as the federal government represents a major client for Palantir, accounting for over 40% of its revenue in the fourth quarter. However, Wedbush analysts told clients Monday that they expect Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform and the Trump administration’s focus on efficiency could leave the company in a “sweet spot to benefit from a tidal wave of federal spending on AI,” even as other government contractors face spending cuts. “We believe Palantir could actually gain more deals and IT budget dollars across various government agencies,” the analysts added. Wedbush maintained an “outperform” rating and $120 price target for the stock, a nearly 40% premium to Monday’s intraday level. Several other analysts have voiced similar sentiments in recent weeks, suggesting last month that Palantir could be better positioned than most to benefit from the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency’s goals to cut spending. -Andrew Kessel

Morgan Stanley Says Tesla ‘Top Pick’ in US Auto Sector Morgan Stanley made Tesla (TSLA) its “Top Pick” in the U.S. automobile sector as the firm expands its reach into artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics. Analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a note to clients that while Tesla’s year-to-date deliveries have been mostly below expectations, he didn’t see it as “particularly narrative changing.” Instead, Jonas said that was “emblematic of a company in the transition from an automotive ‘pure play’ to a highly diversified play on AI and robotics.” As AI moves from the digital world to the physical world, Morgan Stanley expects to see Tesla’s Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), which is used in self-driving cars and other applications, “further expand to broader domains.” Jonas, who has an “overweight” rating on the stock, said that he felt Tesla had a more than 50% upside to Morgan Stanley’s price target of $430, with a “bull case” scenario of $800. He added that fiscal year 2025 deliveries could possibly fall, “creating an attractive entry point to our preferred embodied AI name.” TradingView Tesla shares were down 0.4% at around $292 in recent trading, after rising to nearly $304 early in the session. The stock has lost 28% since the start of 2025, but it’s gained about 44% over the past 12 months, far outpacing the S&P 500. -Bill McColl

Stocks to Watch in March Stocks hit a rough patch in February as the AI rally’s momentum waned and Wall Street grew antsier about an increasingly uncertain economic outlook. Fourth-quarter earnings season will completely wind down in March, leaving Wall Street with far less to distract from this month’s economic data and the likely torrent of headlines out of Washington. Here are stocks that are likely to be in the spotlight this month: Nvidia: The AI chipmaker will host its annual GPU Technology Conference, which analysts have dubbed the “Woodstock of AI,” between March 17 and 21, with CEO Jensen Huang set to deliver a keynote address at 10 a.m. PT on March 18.

The AI chipmaker will host its annual GPU Technology Conference, which analysts have dubbed the “Woodstock of AI,” between March 17 and 21, with CEO Jensen Huang set to deliver a keynote address at 10 a.m. PT on March 18. Tesla: Shares fell 28% in February as investors grew increasingly concerned about the time CEO Elon Musk is spending culling the federal workforce. Musk has become deeply involved with President Donald Trump’s administration as the unofficial leader of the Department of Government Efficiency’s campaign against government spending.

Shares fell 28% in February as investors grew increasingly concerned about the time CEO Elon Musk is spending culling the federal workforce. Musk has become deeply involved with President Donald Trump’s administration as the unofficial leader of the Department of Government Efficiency’s campaign against government spending. Target: The retailer is set to report earnings for the three months through January before markets open on March 4. The report from Target (TGT) comes just a couple of weeks after Walmart (WMT), Target’s largest competitor, spooked Wall Street with a conservative full-year outlook.

The retailer is set to report earnings for the three months through January before markets open on March 4. The report from Target (TGT) comes just a couple of weeks after Walmart (WMT), Target’s largest competitor, spooked Wall Street with a conservative full-year outlook. Lennar: The homebuilder is scheduled to report quarterly results on March 12. Investors will be paying special attention to executives’ comments on Trump’s protectionist trade policies.

The homebuilder is scheduled to report quarterly results on March 12. Investors will be paying special attention to executives’ comments on Trump’s protectionist trade policies. Momentum stocks: Investors showed signs of souring on the AI trade last month, dealing a big blow to the market’s highest-flying stocks. Palantir (PLTR), Applovin (APP) and and Vistra (VST), three of the year’s best-performing stocks, were among the worst performers in the second half of February. Investors will be eyeing these and other momentum stocks closely for signs of a bottom or acceleration of last month’s slump. Read the full article here. -Colin Laidley

Nvidia Extends Post-Earnings Slide Nvidia (NVDA) shares slid Monday, extending last week’s post-earnings losses amid concerns about artificial intelligence spending and uncertainty about the potential impact of policies on tariffs and AI chip export restrictions. Shares of Nvidia were down nearly 5% in recent trading to around $119, after falling about 7% last week, leaving them more than 20% below their all-time high in early January. Mizuho analysts warned clients Friday that Nvidia could potentially face “significant new China AI and export license restrictions,” based on industry checks. Mizuho estimated that could mean a revenue hit to the tune of $4 billion to $6 billion for the AI chipmaker in the second half of the year. The comments come days after reports the Trump administration is seeking to tighten chip export curbs. Last week, President Trump also announced tariffs against products from Canada and Mexico would go into effect Tuesday, along with the doubling of the existing tariff on goods from China. Still, analysts have so far largely remained bullish on Nvidia’s stock, pointing to the chipmaker’s strong outlook on the back of growing AI demand. Mizuho analysts said they expect the impacts of headwinds from China and AI chip restrictions to “remain muted.” The average price target of the 19 analysts covering the stock polled by Visible Alpha is about $177, suggesting nearly 50% upside from Monday’s intraday level. -Kara Greenberg

Stocks Look to Rebound From Losses in February The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all lost ground last month, as investors digested a flurry of earnings reports and grew more concerned about the health of the economy. The Nasdaq led the decline among major indexes, falling 4% in February, its worst performance since last April. The Dow and S&P 500 fell 1.6% and 1.4%, respectively. TradingView Coming into Monday’s session, the Dow had gained 3.1% so far in 2025, while the S&P 500 had risen 1.2% and the Nasdaq had lost 2.4%.

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Markets News, March 25, 2025: Stocks Close Higher for 3rd Straight Day; Tesla Surges Late to Extend Rally

The S&P 500’s top performance on Tuesday came from shares of International Paper (IP), which surged 6.5%. The company highlighted ongoing efforts to streamline its production footprint, including the closure of seven plants as well as efficiency measures at other facilities. Merck (MRK) shares dropped 4.8% following reports that the U.S. drugmaker has inked a licensing deal worth as much as $2 billion with China-based Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals. Shares of delivery giant United Parcel Service (UPS) slipped 5.1% after Bank of America trimmed its earnings forecast for the current quarter.Tesla (TSLA) shares closed higher Tuesday for the fifth straight session as the EV maker recovers some of the ground lost during a two-month selloff. The stock, which came into this week on a nine-week losing streak, has gained 28% during its winning run, though it remains down about 40% from its record high set in December.

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These Were the Big S&P 500 Movers on Tuesday Advancers The S&P 500’s top performance on Tuesday came from shares of International Paper (IP), which surged 6.5% after the packaging supplier provided an upbeat growth outlook at its annual investor day. The company highlighted ongoing efforts to streamline its production footprint, including the closure of seven plants as well as efficiency measures at other facilities. After a takeover effort last year by Brazilian paper firm Suzano failed to materialize, International Paper acquired fellow sustainable packaging producer DS Smith in January, indicating that the combination would help drive growth.

(IP), which surged 6.5% after the packaging supplier provided an upbeat growth outlook at its annual investor day. The company highlighted ongoing efforts to streamline its production footprint, including the closure of seven plants as well as efficiency measures at other facilities. After a takeover effort last year by Brazilian paper firm Suzano failed to materialize, International Paper acquired fellow sustainable packaging producer DS Smith in January, indicating that the combination would help drive growth. Copper futures prices advanced more than 2%, approaching record levels, with unease surrounding tariff policies and concerns about supply providing a boost to the industrial metal. Shares of Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the world’s largest publicly traded copper producer, added 3.4%.

(FCX), the world’s largest publicly traded copper producer, added 3.4%. Shares of cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) jumped 3.3% after the research firm BTIG upgraded its view on the stock to “buy” from “neutral.” Analysts suggested that CrowdStrike has been successful in moving past last year’s global IT outage, noting that the company’s performance since the incident has improved forecasting visibility. BTIG also believes CrowdStrike has the potential to outperform consensus estimates for its annual recurring revenue (ARR) in fiscal 2027. Decliners Shares of delivery giant United Parcel Service (UPS) slipped 5.1%, falling the furthest of any S&P 500 stock, after Bank of America trimmed its earnings forecast for the current quarter. Analysts noted that trade-related uncertainty and winter weather were weighing on demand, also reducing their outlook for the company’s quarterly domestic parcel volume.

(UPS) slipped 5.1%, falling the furthest of any S&P 500 stock, after Bank of America trimmed its earnings forecast for the current quarter. Analysts noted that trade-related uncertainty and winter weather were weighing on demand, also reducing their outlook for the company’s quarterly domestic parcel volume. Merck (MRK) shares dropped 4.8% following reports that the U.S. drugmaker has inked a licensing deal worth as much as $2 billion with China-based Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals. The agreement gives Merck exclusive rights to the experimental oral heart disease treatment HRS-5346, a member of a class of drugs designed to prevent the formation of cholesterol.

(MRK) shares dropped 4.8% following reports that the U.S. drugmaker has inked a licensing deal worth as much as $2 billion with China-based Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals. The agreement gives Merck exclusive rights to the experimental oral heart disease treatment HRS-5346, a member of a class of drugs designed to prevent the formation of cholesterol. Shares of fellow pharmaceutical firm AbbVie (ABBV) fell 3.7% after the company filed a lawsuit against Genmab, a Danish biotech firm and long-time AbbVie collaborator. AbbVie reportedly claims that Genmab and its recent acquisition, ProfoundBio, knowingly participated in the misappropriation of confidential company technology related to antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs). -Michael Bromberg

Key Tesla Levels to Watch as Stock Gains for 5th Straight Day Tesla (TSLA) shares closed higher Tuesday for the fifth straight session as the EV maker recovers some of the ground lost during a two-month selloff. The stock, which came into this week on a nine-week losing streak, has gained 28% during its winning run, though it remains down about 40% from its record high set in December. After briefly dropping below the 200-week moving average (MA) in recent weeks, Tesla shares have reversed gear to climb back above the closely watched indicator, forming two bullish hammer candlesticks in the process. It’s also worth pointing out that the 50-week MA crossed back above the 200-week MA in January to form a golden cross, a respected chart pattern that indicates higher prices. Source: TradingView.com. However, while the relative strength index (RSI) has turned higher for the first time since mid-January, it still remains below the 50 threshold, signaling sluggish price momentum. Key areas of overhead interest on Tesla’s chart sit around $300, $385 and $680, while important support levels lie near $217 and $155. Tesla shares rose 3.5% on Tuesday to finish the session at $288.14. Read the full technical analysis piece here. -Timothy Smith

UPS Closes at Lowest Level in Nearly 5 Years United Parcel Service (UPS) was the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 on Tuesday as the shipping giant’s shares closed at their lowest level in nearly five years. UPS shares fell 5% to $109.95, their lowest level since June 29, 2020, when they ended trading at $109.48. TradingView The company did not appear to issue a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing or press release Tuesday. UPS shares plummeted 14% on Jan. 30, when the company reported weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results and said it was cutting its business with Amazon (AMZN), its largest customer. They have lost more than half their value since closing at an all-time high of $232.11 on Feb. 2, 2022, amid record pandemic demand. -Aaron Rennie

Crown Castle Shares Fall as CEO Dismissed Crown Castle Inc. (CCI) shares tumbled Tuesday after the provider of towers and other communications infrastructure announced it was terminating Steven Moskowitz as its CEO following less than a year at the helm. The real estate investment trust said Monday that it made the decision in relation to its planned $8.5 billion sale of its small cells and fiber solutions businesses earlier this month. “The Board determined that now is the right time to make this leadership transition to successfully complete the previously announced sale of the Company’s small cells and fiber solutions businesses and transform the company into a pure-play U.S. tower business,” Crown Castle Board Chairman P. Robert Bartolo said. Moskowitz’s termination wasn’t due to “any disagreement regarding Crown Castle’s policies or financial performance and was not made for cause or related to any ethical or compliance concern,” the company said. CFO Dan Schlanger will take on the role of interim CEO and a search for a replacement CEO is underway, Crown Castle said. Moskowitz, who previously had served as president of the U.S. Tower business of American Tower Corp. (AMT), became CEO on April 11 last year. Crown Castle shares fell nearly 4% on Tuesday, narrowing the year-to-date gain to 11%. -Nisha Gopalan

Is Carvana Becoming the ‘Amazon of Auto Retail’? Carvana (CVNA) shares surged Tuesday after the online used car retailer’s stock got an upgrade from Morgan Stanley analysts. The analysts boosted their rating to “overweight” from “equal-weight” and raised their price target to $280 from $260 previously. Shares of the car seller, which have more than doubled in value in the last 12 months, were up 3.5% at around $221 in late trading. TradingView The analysts told clients they believe stock’s recent slide from a Valentine’s Day closing peak of $285.33 could present a “unique opportunity for investors to gain exposure to a leader in auto retail and fleet fulfillment.” Their new price target is just slightly below the average price target of $287 among the analysts tracked by Visible Alpha, nine of which give Carvana a “buy” or equivalent rating, while three rate it as a “hold.” The analysts at Morgan Stanley said their recent tour of a Carvana facility in Florida “reinforced the company’s competitive advantages with vertical integration and scale,” calling the company “a potential ‘Amazon (AMZN) of auto retail.'” They said that Carvana’s most recent earnings report, which saw profits top expectations last month, “make a strong case for the company to have proven profitable growth is more than just a temporary phenomenon.” -Aaron McDade

International Paper Stock Jumps on New Growth Targets International Paper (IP) shares were leading S&P 500 gainers Tuesday after the packaging maker outlined rosy growth projections at its annual investor day. The company set 2027 performance targets of $26 billion to $28 billion in net sales and $2.0 billion to $2.5 billion in free cash flow. Analysts polled by Visible Alpha were expecting $26.96 billion and $1.81 billion, respectively. The company said it will continue working to optimize its production footprint, noting it has closed seven plants to date “with no customer impact.” It will also look to cut costs by making its plants more efficient, with a focus on allocating more resources to higher-value customers and markets. The company, which replaced its CEO a year ago, was the target of a failed takeover effort by Brazilian rival Suzano. Earlier this year, International Paper merged with another sustainable packaging producer, DS Smith. Shares of International Paper were up more than 6% in late trading. The stock has gained 38% in the last 12 months. -Aaron McDade

Oklo Stock Sinks as Losses Widen Shares of Oklo (OKLO) tumbled Tuesday after the nuclear energy startup reported its latest financial results, giving back some of the stock’s huge Monday gains. After the bell Monday, Oklo said it recorded a loss of $73.62 million for 2024, more than double the $32.17 million it posted in 2023. The company said it had $275.3 million in cash and other marketable securities at the end of 2024, and said it expects to use those funds to pay for license application fees and the development of its first “powerhouse” reactor. The company’s first reactor is “on track” to start producing energy in late 2027 or early 2028, Oklo said Monday. The stock was boosted Monday by Oklo’s announcement that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission will start a “Pre-Application Readiness Assessment” later this month. The NRC will review some of Oklo’s application materials ahead of the company’s full licensing application to build a small modular reactor at the Idaho National Laboratory. Oklo, which is backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, plans to submit its fill licensing application for the site later this year.

“Nuclear energy has gained unprecedented government support, and AI has triggered a Sputnik moment, accelerating the demand for dependable, domestic power,” Oklo CEO Jacob DeWitte said in a letter to shareholders. TradingView Shares were down 8% in recent trading, after surging 14% on Monday. The stock is still up 160% over the past 12 months as nuclear power companies have benefited from expectations of huge AI-related energy demand. -Aaron McDade

Wynn Stock Rises as Top Stakeholder Fertitta Buys Shares Wynn Resorts (WYNN) shares gained Tuesday as the hotel and casino operator’s largest shareholder, billionaire Tilman Fertitta, expanded his stake in the company. A securities filing showed Fertitta purchased 16,500 shares of Wynn on March 21 and March 24, with a price range of $80.99 to $84.93 per share, totaling approximately $1.38 million. In addition, Hospitality Headquarters, part of the Fertitta Entertainment conglomerate, bought 1.68 million shares for $85.73 each on March 24, valued at about $143.3 million, in a share option transaction. Fertitta, whose wide-ranging investments under the Fertitta Entertainment umbrella include several Golden Nugget casinos, reportedly became Wynn’s top shareholder last November, when he increased his ownership to 9.9%. Fertitta also owns Landry’s, Del Frisco’s, and several other restaurants, as well as the NBA’s Houston Rockets. Shares of Wynn Resorts were up nearly 4% at around $88 in recent trading, putting the stock into positive territory for 2025. -Bill McColl

DJT Jumps on Plan to Work With Crypto.com on ETFs Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) surged Tuesday, a day after President Donald Trump’s social media firm teamed with cryptocurrency trading platform Crypto.com to offer exchange-traded funds. The operator of the Truth Social site, the Truth+ streaming platform, and Truth.Fi financial technology brand announced that the products would be launched later this year through Truth.Fi. The agreement calls for the ETFs to be made available through Crypto.com’s broker dealer Foris Capital US LLC, and “are expected to comprise digital assets as well as securities with a Made in America focus spanning diverse industries such as energy.” Trump Media said the offerings are to include “a unique ETF basket of cryptocurrencies incorporating Bitcoin, Cronos, and other crypto assets.” Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes said that the aim is “to create inventive funds incorporating firms that concentrate on rapid growth, technological innovation, and strengthening the U.S. economy.” TradingView Shares were up 8% in recent trading. Even with today’s gains, Trump Media & Technology Group shares have lost a third of their value this year. -Bill McColl

Cloudflare Rises After Rare Double Upgrade from BofA Cloudflare (NET) shares rose Tuesday after Bank of America analysts gave the stock a double upgrade, citing strong growth potential in artificial intelligence and security. The cybersecurity firm is “poised to be one of the true ‘AI winners’ in software,” BofA said, projecting 30% growth by 2028 driven by “AI and security momentum.” The bank upgraded the company to “buy” from “underperform” and raised its price target to $160 from $60. The stock was up 2.5% at $127 in recent trading. Cloudflare’s AI-as-a-Service represents a differentiated approach to artificial intelligence, BofA said, and one that customers are “increasingly choosing” over hyperscalers like Amazon (AMZN) Web Services, Oracle (ORCL) and Microsoft (MSFT) Azure. According to a BofA survey, Cloudflare customers are expected to increase their AI spending by an average of 8% over the next 12 months to about $100,000 per client. Last month, Cloudflare reported fourth-quarter results that beat analysts’ expectations, driven in part by adding a record number of large customers in the period. -Andrew Kessel

KB Home Sinks as Homebuilder Warns of Waning Demand KB Home (KBH) shares slumped Tuesday, a day after the homebuilder posted worse-than-expected results and cut its guidance as hesitancy by potential buyers reduced demand. The company reported first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share of $1.49, with revenue falling 5% year-over-year to $1.39 billion. Both missed Visible Alpha forecasts. The number of homes delivered declined 9% to 2,770, although the average selling price rose 4% to $500,700. CEO Jeffrey Mezger said that “consumers are working through affordability concerns and uncertainties related to macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, which are causing them to move slowly in their home buying decisions.” Mezger noted that the start of the key spring selling season “was more muted than what we have seen historically, despite a healthy level of traffic in our communities.” Mezger said the company is lowering its full-year outlook “primarily to reflect the lower level of net orders we generated in the first quarter.” KB Home now sees housing revenue in the range of $6.6 billion to $7.0 billion, down from its earlier estimate of $7.0 billion to $7.5 billion. It anticipates the average selling price to be $480,000 to $495,000, down from $488,000 to $498,000.Shares of KB Home dropped 6% to their lowest level in more than a year. TradingView Shares of KB Home were down 6% this morning to their lowest level in more than a year. -Bill McColl

Tesla EU Sales Continue to Slide Tesla (TSLA) sales in the European Union (EU) tumbled for a second consecutive month in February, even as overall new electric vehicle registrations increased. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, Tesla EU new car registrations, which serve as a proxy for sales, plunged 47% year-over-year to 11,743 cars in February, a month after they plummeted 50%. Meanwhile, battery-electric vehicle (BEV) registrations in the bloc jumped nearly 24% overall.

Tesla shares were down 1% in early trading Tuesday after soaring 12% to lead the S&P 500 yesterday. Still, Tesla shares are down more than 30% in 2025, weighed upon by concerns that CEO Elon Musk’s work with President Donald Trump is a distraction from running the EV maker and hurting brand perceptions. Weak sales in Europe, as well as in China, a key market, have also hurt its stock. -Nisha Gopalan

MicroStrategy Price Levels to Watch After Monday’s Surge MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares were slightly lower this morning after jumping more than 10% on Monday. Shares in the company, which is the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin, received a boost after a regulatory filing on Monday revealed that the software firm had purchased an additional 6,911 bitcoins between March 17 and March 23, taking its holding to over 500,000 BTC. MicroStrategy’s accumulation of the digital currency, which began in 2020, has shown no signs of slowing. Shares of MicroStrategy, which does business under the name Strategy, have gained 16% since the start of the year as of Monday’s close and have more than doubled over the past 12 months as investors turn to the stock as a leveraged Bitcoin bet. After retracing to the closely watched 200-day moving average, MicroStrategy shares traded sideways for several weeks before finding renewed buying interest. More recently, the stock closed above the 50-day MA on Monday, potentially setting the stage for a continuation of the stock’s longer-term uptrend. Source: TradingView.com. Meanwhile, the relative strength index flashes a reading above 50 to signal bullish price momentum, but also sits below overbought levels, providing the stock with ample room to test higher prices. Investors should watch major overhead areas on MicroStrategy’s chart around $383, $543, and $870, while also monitoring key support levels near $232 and $180. The stock was down 0.5% at $334 in recent premarket trading. Read the full technical analysis piece here. -Timothy Smith

Source: Investopedia.com | View original article

Stock playbook for Trump’s second term: Top sector winners and losers

Investors brace for a bumpy ride as President-elect Donald Trump’s second term gets underway on Monday. Wall Street is upbeat, while cooling inflation and strong earnings have also fueled investor optimism. In recent weeks, I’ve spoken with several top CEOs and Wall Street analysts about what Trump 2.0 means for businesses and investors. Here’s what they told me about the incoming administration’s expected impact across various sectors, including financials, tech, airlines and the aerospace and defense sector. The S&P 500 clocked its best weekly performance since the election since Nov. 5, with a rise of 3.6%. But some areas of the market could be at risk, as Trump”s unpredictable approach is largely expected to trigger market volatility, as well as volatility in the economy and the stock market in the short term. The U.S. economy is expected to grow at a rate of 3% to 4% in 2017, according to the International Institute of Actuaries.

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Goldman Sachs analyst Joe Ritchie told me last month that the industrial sector is gaining confidence after months of contraction, adding “several companies are expecting better growth in 2025 … It’s only a matter of time before it happens.”

“There was a 10% hit that was coming [from Basel III endgame], and that probably will go to neutral,” Sykes said . He also added that increased M&A within the sector will allow smaller players to take advantage of synergies, an outcome that’s being “underappreciated by investors.”

Gabelli Funds portfolio manager Mac Sykes expects lighter oversight of the banking industry to be a catalyst for the group, telling Yahoo Finance that deregulation will “benefit the banks.”

Read more: Trump lurks over Davos and the World Economic Forum

“We need to have a more level, less volatile regulatory environment,” Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, told me on Yahoo Finance’s Morning Brief. “Having banks manage their business on whether or not [Senator] Elizabeth Warren is going to attack them or not is absurd. You can’t run a business that way.”

Meanwhile, JPMorgan ( JPM ) CFO Jeremy Barnum cited a “significant amount of increase of optimism in the overall environment,” telling reporters following the bank’s earnings results that “we’re in an animal-spirits moment right now.”

“There has been a meaningful shift in CEO confidence, particularly following the results of the US election,” Goldman Sachs ( GS ) CEO David Solomon said on the bank’s earnings call. “It feels like we have a tailwind going into 2025.”

Financials is viewed as a top trade as investors bet on looser regulation and increased M&A activity. Just this week, the nation’s largest banks reported a surge in corporate profits .

In recent weeks, I’ve spoken with several top CEOs and Wall Street analysts about what Trump 2.0 means for businesses and investors. Here’s what they told me about the incoming administration’s expected impact across various sectors.

Yet some areas of the market could be at risk, as Trump’s unpredictable approach is largely expected to trigger market volatility.

Those two priorities have Wall Street upbeat, while cooling inflation and strong earnings have also fueled investor optimism. This past week, the S&P 500 ( ^GSPC ) clocked its best weekly performance since the election. Since Nov. 5, the S&P 500 has climbed 3.6%.

Investors brace for a bumpy ride as President-elect Donald Trump’s second term gets underway on Monday, bringing the promise of significant policy shifts — including lighter regulation and tax cuts.

Story Continues

HEICO (HEI) co-president Eric Mendelson is among the group’s business leaders who see Trump’s policies boosting investor confidence in the economy, creating a “very positive environment” for the industrial sector.

And Elon Musk’s influence on the incoming administration could be another catalyst. Robert Cardillo, chief strategist of Planet Labs (PL), told me last month at the Goldman Sachs Industrial and Materials conference that Musk’s impact will likely be “good news” for the sector.

Airlines

Industry leaders and experts are expecting the incoming administration to create a supportive backdrop for the sector.

“It’s constructive in a lot of ways … The tax efforts I think are constructive. The regulatory environment I hope is also more constructive for the industry,” Southwest (LUV) CEO Bob Jordan told me last month.

And industry watchers are predicting significant changes to the air transportation and aerospace sector, including plans to scale back the Biden administration’s consumer protection initiatives and reduce regulations affecting the commercial space and advanced air mobility industries, according to recent analysis from Pillsbury law firm’s aviation team.

“We anticipate seeing support from the Trump Administration for joint-ventures, mergers and/or acquisition efforts by smaller airlines to compete more effectively with the larger U.S. airlines,” Pillsbury’s Charles Donley, Edward Sauer, and Laura Jennings Ochoa wrote.

That sentiment is being echoed by top industry analysts.

“Between the new administration’s stance as well as some of the smaller airlines struggling, there’s a better chance of M&A now … that’s an upside for the group and definitely a higher likelihood in 2025 than what we’ve seen these past few years,” Raymond James’s Savanthi Syth told me.

Tech

Big Tech leaders are cozying up to President-elect Donald Trump due to his plans to peel back regulations and invest heavily in AI.

Amazon (AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos, Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook, Alphabet (GOOGL) CEO Sundar Pichai, Meta (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella are among tech leaders who contributed funds to Trump’s inauguration campaign as Big Tech tries to win the backing of the new administration.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives expects the technology sector to be a big winner this year, predicting a “Goldilocks” scenario for Big Tech.

“We expect tech stocks to be up 25% in 2025 as the Street further digests a less regulatory spider web under Trump in the White House with Khan/FTC days in the rear-view mirror, stronger AI initiatives within the Beltway on the way, and a goldilocks foundation for Big Tech and Tesla looking into 2025 and beyond,” Ives wrote in a note to clients.

IBM (IBM) CEO Arvind Krishna told me at Yahoo Finance’s Invest conference that he’s hopeful the incoming Trump administration will foster “a lot more innovation and less regulation,” laying the groundwork for a more favorable deal environment.

“If we have more certainty on the outcome, then we are willing to lean into things like M&A. … If the regulatory process and antitrust are going to be more certain, that allows you to take more risk,” Krishna said.

Losing trades under Trump: Automakers, retailers, construction

Automakers

Plans by the incoming administration to roll back the Biden administration’s EV policies on day one, along with threats of tariffs, pose a risk to the automotive sector.

Tom Donnelly, president and CEO of Mazda North American Operations, told me it’s “potentially” more difficult to do business under Trump given the unpredictability surrounding his administration and the potential for more tariffs. He told Yahoo Finance that Mazda has been “scenario planning” for months, which includes potentially shifting some of its production from Mexico to its plant in Alabama.

“Uncertainty isn’t beneficial,” Donnelly told me. “What’s clear is no business in any industry can absorb the magnitude of what’s being talked about here.”

Since Election Day, Trump has threatened a slew of tariffs, ranging from a gradual implementation to a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods.

Tariffs on Canada and Mexico, in particular, are expected to be an overhang for the auto sector this year. Evercore’s Chris McNally remains “relatively cautious” on the entire legacy auto group until there’s a resolution on Trump’s tariff threats, warning of an earnings hit to some of the industry’s largest players.

“General Motors (GM) has the highest negative EPS exposure to a 25% Mexico Tariff in the whopping range of 45%-50% EPS hit if implemented,” McNally wrote in a note to clients earlier this month.

GM CEO Mary Barra told Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sozzi tariffs could mean higher car prices, and maybe more sluggish demand.

RBC’s Tom Narayan sees Trump’s “erratic” behavior as a risk to the industry and expects Trump’s threat of tariffs to “continue to pressure” auto stocks until the industry gains some clarity.

Discount retailers

Discount retailers are among the stocks most at risk of tariffs, as the group relies heavily on Chinese imports.

For example, nearly a third of products sold at Boot Barn (BOOT) are produced in China, while 25% are produced in Mexico, according to recent analysis from Bank of America’s Christopher Nardone.

Dollar Tree (DLTR) CEO Michael Creedon noted on the company’s third quarter earnings call that the retailer has policies in place to mitigate risk associated with tariffs, including the ability to “eliminate the product altogether.”

Construction

Trump’s promise of mass deportations, along with tariffs, is a risk to the construction industry.

“Higher tariffs on Canada and Mexico and mass deportations of undocumented immigrants could increase costs for materials and labor. Higher tariffs on China could slow its economy, causing land developers to slow their investments,” S&P Global Ratings wrote in a recent note.

The team notes that softwood lumber, which is used to frame buildings, is often imported from Canada, while drywall and cement component gypsum is often imported from both Mexico and Canada.

And that sentiment was echoed by Realtor.com’s senior economist Joel Berner, who warned that higher costs will slow building activity.

“Policy initiatives of the incoming Trump administration, which has promised tariffs on imported goods that include construction materials and mass deportations that will impact builders’ labor forces, surely have come into play as builders slow down in terms of initiating new building projects,” Berner wrote.

Seana Smith is an anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Smith on Twitter @SeanaNSmith. Tips on deals, mergers, activist situations, or anything else? Email seanasmith@yahooinc.com.

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