The NOAA Hurricane Hunters have found sustained winds have climbed to 145 mph, making it a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The first Category 3+ hurricane of the season typically forms on September 1, so Erin is slightly ahead of schedule.

While Erin’s longer-term future after the Caribbean is still somewhat uncertain, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting further rapid intensification this weekend.

Interests along the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda should continue to monitor the forecast. A significant rip current threat is expected in the week ahead from Florida to Massachusetts.

(MORE: Erin Maps Tracker – Spaghetti Models, Forecasts, More)

Watches And Warnings

While Erin’s center is forecast to pass north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, it could track close enough for at least some tropical storm force gusts in some areas. Tropical storm watches are in effect for St. Martin/Sint Maarten and St. Barthelemy. Watches mean tropical storm force winds are possible, while warnings mean they are expected.

There could be other impacts in these areas other than winds, as we’ll detail below.

Path, Intensity Forecast

Erin is located 120 miles northeast of Anguilla in the northern Leeward Islands and winds have increased to 145 mph. Erin has been heading just a hair north of due west this morning.

A wind gust of 33 mph was recently recorded in Saint Martin.

Erin is expected to turn toward the west-northwest as it strengthens. This path will take Erin toward progressively warmer waters, which, in tandem with low wind shear, should allow Erin to intensify further this weekend as its center tracks north of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Later next week, Erin is expected to pass between North Carolina and Bermuda. Exactly where this happens remains uncertain, but Erin is expected to eventually turn northeastward to the north of Bermuda.

Storm Info And Projected Path

Potential Impacts

-Caribbean: The core of Erin is expected to pass just north of the northeast Caribbean islands, but some impacts are expected this weekend from Puerto Rico to Martinique.

In addition to high surf and dangerous rip currents, bands of heavy rain containing gusty winds could impact the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through this weekend. This could lead to local flash flooding and landslides where bands of heavy rain persist, particularly over mountainous terrain.

Rainfall Forecast

-Bermuda, U.S. East Coast: Beginning Monday, Erin will begin to turn more to the north between a developing break in high pressure. Where that turn occurs between the area of high pressure over the eastern U.S. and another one east of Bermuda is still uncertain and will determine what, if any, land areas might see impacts next week.

The probability of a landfall from Erin along the U.S. East Coast is very low at this time. However, interests along the East Coast should continue to monitor this system for possible changes.

Erin will generate high surf and dangerous rip currents along the U.S. East Coast for several days in the week ahead, no matter where it tracks.

Interests in Bermuda should also continue to follow Erin’s forecast closely since its eventual turn toward the north and northeast might take it close to the archipelago next week. And parts of Atlantic Canada — particularly Newfoundland — should also follow this forecast closely, as Erin could end up tracking close to some of those areas late in the week ahead.

Check back to weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates as the forecast comes into focus.

Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world’s biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.

Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Monday and is rapidly intensifying. The NHC said rough surf conditions from the storm could impact states like Florida on the U.S. East Coast, as well as the Bahamas and Bermuda, early next week.

Where is Hurricane Erin, and what is its path?

As of 8 a.m. ET Saturday:

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Erin was located 120 miles northeast of Anguilla.

The storm has maximum sustained winds of 145 mph.

It is moving west-northwest at 20 mph.

The storm is expected to continue to move west-northwest through the weekend, gradually decreasing in speed. Early next week, the storm is expected to turn toward the north.

Starting today into Sunday, the outer bands of Erin are expected to bring areas of heavy rainfall across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals could range from 2 to 4 inches, with up to 6 inches in isolated areas, which could lead to flash or urban flooding and cause mudslides and landslides, the hurricane center said Saturday.

“Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend, the NHC said. “These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.”

What are the chances it will intensify?

Erin reached Category 4 strength on Saturday.

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“Continued rapid strengthening is expected today, followed by fluctuations in intensity through the weekend,” forecasters said.

A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when maximum sustained winds reach at least 74 mph. Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, ranging from Category 1 to Category 5, with 5 being the most severe. A storm is considered a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, according to the NHC.

Watches and warnings in place

As of 8 a.m. ET Saturday, these are the following advisories in place, according to the NHC:

Tropical storm watches are in effect for:

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St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

Sint Maarten

Forecasters added that, “A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.”

The NHC advised that the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor forecasts of Erin.

How is hurricane season shaping up?

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal.

Last week, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly updated the number of expected storms to 13-18 (estimated at 13-19 in May), five of which could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph).

A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms. We’re currently about halfway through this year’s hurricane season, and as of Friday, Aug. 15, there have been six so far: tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, and now Hurricane Erin.