Analysis: Why ceasefires that are suddenly declared tend to be so fragile

By Michael Clarke, military analyst

Ceasefires that are suddenly declared tend to be pretty fragile.

Stable ceasefires usually require a lot of preparation, so that everyone on both sides knows what is supposed to happen, and – more importantly – when.

And they normally agree how it will be monitored so that one side cannot seize a quick advantage by breaking it suddenly.

Without such preparations, and sometimes even with them, ceasefires will tend to be breached – perhaps by accident, perhaps because one side does not exercise full control over its own forces, perhaps as a result of false alarms, or even because a third party – a guerrilla group or a militia, say – choose that moment to launch an attack of their own.

The important question is whether a ceasefire breach is just random and unfortunate, or else deliberate and systemic, where someone is actively trying to break it.

Either way, ceasefires have to be politically reinforced all the time if they are to hold.

All sides may need to re-dedicate themselves to it at regular intervals, mainly because as genuine enemies, they won’t trust each other and will remain naturally suspicious at every twitch and utterance from the other side.

Washington has key role to play

This is where an external power like the United States plays a critical part.

If enemies like Israel and Iran naturally distrust each other and need little incentive to ‘hit back’ in some way at every provocation, it will take US pressure to make them abide by a ceasefire that may be breaking down.

Appeals to good nature are hardly relevant in this respect. An external arbiter has to make the continuance of a ceasefire a matter of hard national interest to both sides.

And that often requires as much bullying as persuasion. It may be true that ‘blessed are the peacemakers’, but it sure helps if their blessings include a fair amount of muscle.

A furious Donald Trump cursed at Israel and Iran on live TV this morning, using the f-word as he accused both of violating a ceasefire he brokered last night.

‘We’ve got two countries who’ve been fighting for so long and so hard, they don’t know what the f*** they’re doing,’ he said as he stormed onto Marine One for his trip to the NATO summit in the Netherlands.

The Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement appears to be in tatters just hours after coming into effect, with the warring arch enemies accusing one another of launching strikes almost immediately after they agreed to stop their tit-for-tat attacks.

Israel said it earlier today that it was preparing to ‘respond forcefully’ to the breach, saying it would launch ‘intense strikes’ on ‘the heart’ of the Iranian capital.

But Trump publicly warned it against targeting Tehran, writing on Truth Social: ‘ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!’

Reports have since emerged that Israel carried out a ‘small strike’ north of Tehran, with claims that it scaled back its planned attack after Trump called Benjamin Netanyahu to warn him against it.

Trump had told the warring sides to not violate the ceasefire last night, declaring that it marked a new chapter of ‘world peace’. He has since insisted that the ceasefire remains ‘in effect’.

Live updates below

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said that a ceasefire was in effect, soon after Iranian state-linked media announced Tehran had fired its “last round” of missiles at Israel.

“THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!” Trump said in a post on Truth Social around 1:00 a.m. stateside.

The ceasefire announcement came after Iran carried out retaliatory missile strikes at the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

Within hours of the declaration, Israel accused Iran of violating the ceasefire with further missile strikes — which Tehran denied, according to Iranian media.

Trump says he is “not happy” with both Tehran and Israel, urging the Jewish state not to go ahead with a retaliatory missile strike against Iran.

CNBC reporters are covering the Middle East conflict on air and online, reporting from Washington, D.C., London, Dubai, San Francisco and Englewood Cliffs, N.J, and Singapore.

Israel-Iran War: Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Tuesday accused Iran of violating the ceasefire after launching a salvo of missiles into Israeli territory. The strikes came just hours after US President Donald Trump announced what he called a “complete and total ceasefire” between Iran and Israel.

What did Iran say about the ceasefire?

Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi defended Tehran’s actions. In a post on X, he insisted Iran had only responded to Israeli “aggression.”

“As Iran has repeatedly made clear: Israel launched war on Iran, not the other way around,” Araghchi wrote. “As of now, there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards,” he added.

Araghchi praised Iran’s Armed Forces for their resilience, saying they fought until the last minute and would hold fire only if their conditions were met.

What did Trump say?

Tuesday morning (Indian time), President Trump declared that both Iran and Israel had agreed to the ceasefire. According to Trump, the truce was a two-phase process — Iran would halt military operations first, followed by Israel 12 hours later.

“Israel and Iran have agreed that this is a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE,” Trump wrote on social media. “Iran will officially begin at the 0-hour mark. Twelve hours after that, Israel will implement its own CEASEFIRE. Finally, after 24 hours of mutual respect, the world will bear witness to the official end of this 12-day war.”

“Israel & Iran came to me, almost simultaneously, and said, “PEACE!” I knew the time was NOW. The World, and the Middle East, are the real WINNERS! Both Nations will see tremendous LOVE, PEACE, AND PROSPERITY in their futures. They have so much to gain, and yet, so much to lose if they stray from the road of RIGHTEOUSNESS & TRUTH. The future for Israel & Iran is UNLIMITED, & filled with great PROMISE. GOD BLESS YOU BOTH!” reads Trump’s post on Truth Social.

US strikes Iranian nuclear sites

The ceasefire announcement followed US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities — Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — which Trump claimed had “obliterated” their targets.

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Last Updated: June 24, 2025, 18:44 IST

Israel-Iran War News Live: In an attempt to de-escalate the conflict, both Tehran and Tel Aviv agreed to a ceasefire brokered by the United States. Despite the deal, Israel on Tuesday claimed an Iranian airstrike continued as it detected the launch of more ballistic missiles from Iran.

The Israel-Iran conflict entered Day 12 today. In the early hours of Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran would stop its attacks if Israel stopped its airstrikes by 4am local time. Araghchi’s statement was being viewed as the first official remark by Iran to President Donald Trump’s claimed ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

Further, the Iraqi military claimed one of its military bases was struck by a drone today.

Tensions flared up in West Asia after Israel launched attacks on Iran on June 13, triggering destruction and casualties in both nations. The ongoing conflict was further compounded by United States strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities– Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. Reacting to the US’s ‘Midnight Hammer’ operation against it, Iran said it will remain firm in developing its nuclear sector.