The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cast fresh doubt on Russia’s ability to sustain and restore its oil production capacity as output and export volumes continue to decline under the pressure of sanctions, waning investment and the exit of Western energy firms.

In its latest monthly report, the Paris-based agency said Russian oil supply continued to decline through most of 2024 and into early 2025, warning that this “raises questions about Russia’s ability to sustain its upstream production capacity.”

According to the IEA, Russia’s daily oil-related shipments in June stood at 4.68 million barrels, including 2.55 million barrels of petroleum products.

Total crude and condensate production was estimated at 9.19 million barrels per day (bpd), significantly below pre-pandemic levels and the country’s estimated current capacity of 9.8 million bpd.