Escalate or stand down? Iran’s calculations as it responds to the Israeli strikes

Alex Vatanka

Senior Fellow

Recent remarks by President Donald Trump casting doubt on the prospects of a diplomatic resolution in US-Iran nuclear talks suggest that both he and Israel concluded Iran needed a major shock to compel meaningful concessions — either halting uranium enrichment or offering counter-proposals acceptable to US-Israeli terms. That shock now appears to have been delivered.

Trump continues to frame diplomacy as his preferred path, while Israel acts as the enforcer, delivering the blows as Trump offers Iran a way out. Both warn that further attacks are possible, a strategy clearly intended to concentrate minds in Tehran. The precedent of Israel’s decapitation campaign against Hezbollah in 2024 looms large here: It was not until the elimination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and much of the group’s leadership that rocket fire ceased.

That lesson is likely not lost on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s ultimate decision-maker, who may now face a choice between capitulation and martyrdom. Khamenei must also reckon with a significantly diminished senior military leadership. Whether the regime will choose escalation or opt to stand down remains an open question.

Not since the 1979 revolution has Iran’s leadership suffered such devastating losses in such a short period of time. The confirmed deaths of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) chief and multiple senior commanders mark a historic blow. Israel’s recent operations — especially the 2024 assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran — have demonstrated its overwhelming intelligence dominance. Mossad appears to operate with near-total freedom inside Iran, including in the capital.

Iran’s continued inability to protect its top military and nuclear officials is staggering. It raises serious questions: Is this the result of systemic incompetence, or a deeper inability to confront an Israel emboldened by US backing and intelligence superiority?

In Tehran, senior officials quickly issued the expected vows of “historic revenge.” But public sentiment is skeptical. Many Iranians doubt the regime’s ability to follow through, especially after repeated humiliations in the 14 months since Israel first struck Iran’s embassy in Damascus in April 2024, killing several key commanders of the IRGC.

Official messaging reflects this internal tension. Military-linked figures close to the supreme leader, such as Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Qalibaf, focus on retaliation, with Qalibaf saying, “Israel started this, but we will finish it.” Meanwhile, others work to reassure the public that the situation is under control. But it very clearly is not. Tehran is deeply worried about the risk of renewed protests, driven by public outrage over national security failures and perceived impotence.

Israel likely factored Iran’s domestic fragility into its calculations, aiming not only to degrade its military capabilities but also to deepen the regime’s internal crisis.

Across the region, governments have formally condemned Israel’s actions. Some of this is sincere, but much of it reflects a desire to avoid entanglement in a rapidly escalating confrontation between two major regional powers. With Iran and Israel separated by roughly 1,000 miles, many states lie within the potential range of escalation. In the short term, their cautious, calculated statements underscore the deep regional anxiety over being drawn into the conflict’s next phase.

In the longer term, however, a weakened and toothless Iran creates new challenges for many Middle Eastern states, and certainly for much of the Arab world. As Iran’s influence wanes, anxiety is likely to grow among key regional powers like Turkey and Saudi Arabia about the prospect of an Israel that emerges as the Middle East’s unchallenged hegemon.

9:04 America/New York Wednesday, June 18

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CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES How Things Could go from Worse to Devastating for Iran. Following Israel’s devastating airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, the region teeters on the brink of a wider war. Israeli forces claim control over Tehran’s airspace, prompting evacuation warnings amid potential follow-up strikes. President Donald Trump, who abruptly left the G7 a day early on Monday, declared Iran must never obtain nuclear weapons and hinted at broader U.S. involvement. Over 30 U.S. refueling aircraft have been deployed, and the USS Nimitz is en route. Experts like Norm Roule warn the attacks have severely degraded Iran’s nuclear capabilities—destroying key facilities and killing top scientists—yet key underground sites like Fordow remain intact. Former CENTCOM Commander Gen. Frank McKenzie and Admiral James Stavridis suggest cyberwarfare and bunker-busting bombers could be used next. If Iran retaliates, the U.S. could be drawn in, potentially triggering regime change. While Iran’s regional proxies are weakened, Roule warns that chaos could follow if the regime collapses, raising urgent concerns about nuclear security and future leadership within Iran. The Cipher Brief Opinion: Why Iran’s Nuclear Program Cannot Be Dismantled from the Air. Military and political analyst Carlo J.V. Caro argues that Iran’s nuclear program cannot be dismantled through airstrikes alone, regardless of technological sophistication or U.S.-Israeli cooperation. Iran’s facilities like Fordow and Natanz are deeply buried, redundantly structured, and legally protected under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran has decentralized its nuclear capabilities across military-linked organizations, universities, and civilian infrastructure, making the system resilient and capable of rapid reconstitution even after significant physical damage. Key assets—designs, trained personnel, and indigenous manufacturing—cannot be destroyed from the air. Moreover, the lack of International Atomic Energy Agency inspection access since 2021 means intelligence is incomplete, and battle damage assessments are unreliable. Historical precedents—Osirak, Syria, Libya, and South Africa—do not apply because Iran’s program is far more advanced and hardened. Caro concludes that only a ground incursion with full control over facilities, scientists, and documents—akin to Iraq in 2003—could dismantle the program. Airstrikes may delay progress but cannot eliminate Iran’s strategic nuclear latency or knowledge base. The Cipher Brief Opinion: Israel’s Bid to End the Iranian Nuclear Threat. Siddhant Kishore, a former analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, argues that Israel’s Operation Rising Lion has dealt a severe blow to Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, achieving temporary air superiority and operational dominance. Kishore notes that Israeli intelligence enabled precise strikes on nuclear facilities and key personnel, including senior military leaders, crippling Iran’s command and control. He highlights the regime’s disorganized counterattack—marked by ineffective missile strikes on Israeli civilian areas—as evidence of structural breakdown. Iran’s depleted missile stockpile, destroyed airbases, and leadership vacuum have eroded its deterrent capacity. Kishore suggests that Israel’s objective is not only to degrade Iran’s nuclear program but to force Tehran into negotiations under duress, with the goal of full denuclearization and external oversight. With proxies weakened and allies cautious, Kishore concludes Iran is nearing a decisive defeat unless it concedes. He calls the Israeli campaign a potential strategic victory, not just a tactical success. Siddhant Kishore, a former analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, argues that Israel’s Operation Rising Lion has dealt a severe blow to Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, achieving temporary air superiority and operational dominance. Kishore notes that Israeli intelligence enabled precise strikes on nuclear facilities and key personnel, including senior military leaders, crippling Iran’s command and control. He highlights the regime’s disorganized counterattack—marked by ineffective missile strikes on Israeli civilian areas—as evidence of structural breakdown. Iran’s depleted missile stockpile, destroyed airbases, and leadership vacuum have eroded its deterrent capacity. Kishore suggests that Israel’s objective is not only to degrade Iran’s nuclear program but to force Tehran into negotiations under duress, with the goal of full denuclearization and external oversight. With proxies weakened and allies cautious, Kishore concludes Iran is nearing a decisive defeat unless it concedes. He calls the Israeli campaign a potential strategic victory, not just a tactical success. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS Indian leader openly rejects Trump’s assertion that US helped mediate ceasefire with Pakistan . Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has disputed U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims that the May ceasefire between India and Pakistan was achieved through U.S. mediation, telling the American leader that direct military talks brought results. According to Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, Modi clarified during a phone call on the sidelines of the G7 summit that there was no discussion of U.S. involvement or trade deals during the conflict. This contradicts Trump’s earlier statement that U.S. mediation ended the hostilities. Modi also reportedly emphasized that “India has never accepted mediation, does not accept it, and will never accept it.” The four-day conflict, the worst in decades, followed a deadly April 22 attack in Indian Kashmir, which New Delhi blamed on Pakistan-backed militants. In response, India launched cross-border airstrikes under “Operation Sindoor,” which Modi said remains ongoing. Trump expressed support for the country’s counterterrorism efforts and was invited to visit India later this year for the Quad summit. The White House has not commented on the call. Reuters Bloomberg Al Jazeera BBC Inside the clashes between Trump and Gabbard .Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence under President Trump, has reportedly become embroiled in a tense clash with the president following her early-morning video warning of “nuclear annihilation” and accusing warmongering elites of heightening global tensions. Trump was reportedly “incensed” by the unauthorized post, viewing it as off-message and undercutting his policy posture—despite Gabbard’s insistence that they remain aligned on Iran strategy. The episode has fueled speculation in Washington that Trump’s confidence in Gabbard is eroding, with some even suggesting her office might be absorbed into the CIA. Yet Gabbard continues to publicly support Trump’s broader agenda, even as her future influence remains in question. Politico National Security Council taps ex-soldier with business experience for top Europe role . The White House has appointed Charles McLaughlin, a former Army Special Forces officer with extensive business and policy experience, as senior director for European and Russian Affairs at the National Security Council. His appointment signals a renewed emphasis on advancing American business interests in Russia and Ukraine, even as the war between the two countries persists. McLaughlin’s background includes management roles at top consulting firms and previous government service during Trump’s first term, notably with the Development Finance Corporation and the NSC. His business ties to Moscow are underscored by his past role overseeing a major U.S.-Russia investment forum at Harvard. The appointment follows a sweeping May purge at the NSC that removed the Ukraine war team, baffling European allies. Trump has expressed enthusiasm for boosting trade with Russia and has signed a deal to secure U.S. access to Ukrainian mineral resources. McLaughlin replaces Andrew Peek, who was ousted during the recent shakeup. Reuters Haiti Is Using Drones to Fight Gangs. Here’s Why That’s Likely to Be Illegal . The Haitian government has begun using explosive-equipped drones in a controversial attempt to combat the powerful, violent gangs that control much of Port-au-Prince. The strikes, which have reportedly killed over 300 gang members, aim to apply pressure on gangs like the Viv Ansanm coalition that have overrun police stations and public institutions, and displaced 1.3 million. The government relies on private military contractors to carry out the strikes, to curb information leaks. Despite these efforts, no major gang territory has been reclaimed, and high-value targets remain at large. The campaign has drawn sharp criticism from Canada, which supplied some of the drones, accusing Haiti of violating international and domestic law; drone use is only lawful in formally declared armed conflicts. Human rights experts argue that, without transparency or legal oversight, these strikes lack legitimacy. Many Haitians welcome the operations as a rare counteroffensive, but analysts caution that lethal drone use without a broader strategy or ground forces is ineffective. Experts say killing gang leaders alone won’t restore order or dismantle entrenched criminal networks. New York Times Canada’s Carney, India’s Modi hold talks to reset ties following two years of tensions . India and Canada held a bilateral meeting on Tuesday, their first since tensions erupted in 2023 over accusations that India was involved in the killing of Canadian Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Prime Ministers Mark Carney and Narendra Modi met at the G7 summit in Alberta, projecting a cordial tone and agreeing to restore diplomatic ties by appointing new envoys. Carney avoided mention of the murder controversy, while both leaders underscored mutual respect, democracy, and the rule of law. India has denied any involvement in the killing and criticized Ottawa for harboring Sikh separatists. Despite continued outrage from Canada’s Sikh community, which protested Modi’s visit, both governments appear eager to reset relations. Canada sees New Delhi as a vital partner in trade and global supply chains, with hopes of increasing agricultural exports. Modi, making his first visit to Canada in a decade, called the meeting “excellent.” Reuters Bangkok Post 700 military personnel mobilized to support ICE in 3 states . Last week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sanctioned the deployment of up to 700 U.S. troops to support Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas, providing logistical and administrative help at detention facilities. The troops, operating under Title 10 authority, will not engage in law enforcement but aim to free up ICE agents for those tasks. The move follows similar deployments to California, where protests erupted over the Trump administration’s workplace immigration raids. Critics, including Sen. Patty Murray and California Governor Gavin Newsom, have condemned the use of military personnel in domestic affairs as unconstitutional and dangerous. A group of retired generals and former military leaders also warned against involving the armed forces in politically charged domestic issues, arguing it risks damaging the military’s integrity and public trust. Legal challenges are underway, as the Pentagon insists the deployment supports national sovereignty and ICE operations. The Hill Trump’s Conflicting Messages on Workplace Raids Leave Businesses Reeling . President Trump’s immigration policy is sending mixed signals, leaving industries and immigrant communities dazed. While Trump has pledged mass deportations, he also suggested leniency for sectors like agriculture and hospitality, which rely heavily on undocumented labor. Following backlash from business leaders and officials, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) briefly paused workplace raids, sparking tensions within the administration. Meanwhile, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has reaffirmed aggressive enforcement, urging ICE to focus on arrest numbers while stressing that workplace raids must be coordinated through leadership. Business leaders and some Republicans argue that undocumented workers are essential to the economy, especially with low unemployment. Yet others insist no sector should be exempt from enforcement. The ambiguity has left employers unable to plan and immigrant communities fearful and uncertain. Advocates say the inconsistent messaging has created emotional whiplash for undocumented families who live with the daily threat of deportation. New York Times Axios Son, allies of Brazil’s ex-leader Bolsonaro accused in spy agency case, source says. Brazil’s federal police have formally accused Carlos Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, and several allies, in a case involving illegal surveillance by Brazil’s spy agency, ABIN, during Bolsonaro’s presidency. The investigation centers on the use of ABIN systems to monitor public officials and spread fake news. Carlos Bolsonaro allegedly used illegally obtained information to target individuals on social media. The former ABIN chief is accused of orchestrating the scheme, while the current director is suspected of obstructing the investigation under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Though some reports initially said Jair Bolsonaro himself was accused, police sources clarified he was not formally charged in this case, as he is already a defendant in a separate coup-related probe. A sealed final report has been submitted to the Supreme Court, and it is now up to federal prosecutors to determine whether formal charges will be filed. Brazil’s federal police have formally accused Carlos Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, and several allies, in a case involving illegal surveillance by Brazil’s spy agency, ABIN, during Bolsonaro’s presidency. The investigation centers on the use of ABIN systems to monitor public officials and spread fake news. Carlos Bolsonaro allegedly used illegally obtained information to target individuals on social media. The former ABIN chief is accused of orchestrating the scheme, while the current director is suspected of obstructing the investigation under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Though some reports initially said Jair Bolsonaro himself was accused, police sources clarified he was not formally charged in this case, as he is already a defendant in a separate coup-related probe. A sealed final report has been submitted to the Supreme Court, and it is now up to federal prosecutors to determine whether formal charges will be filed. Reuters The Guardian Al Jazeera

THE UKRAINE UPDATE G7 abandons joint Ukraine statement as Zelensky says diplomacy is in crisis. The G7 summit in Kananaskis ended Tuesday without a joint statement on Ukraine due to U.S. resistance, highlighting fractures in Western unity. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, denied a meeting with President Donald Trump, warned that diplomacy is in crisis and urged stronger U.S. pressure on Russia. Canada pledged $1.47 billion in new aid and sanctions, while Prime Minister Mark Carney plans to issue a separate chair statement urging more pressure on Moscow. Trump left early to address the Israel-Iran crisis but denied it was tied to any ceasefire efforts. Though European leaders pushed for tougher sanctions, Trump offered no firm commitments. Meanwhile, Russia mocked the G7 as “useless” while Zelensky emphasized the urgency of U.S. leadership amid ongoing deadly Russian attacks. Carney also used the summit to engage non-G7 nations, such as India and Mexico, signaling Canada’s intent to diversify its global partnerships. Despite some progress, the summit revealed deep diplomatic challenges ahead for Ukraine and its allies. G7 leaders agreed on six statements – about migrant smuggling, artificial intelligence, critical minerals , wildfires, transnational repression, and quantum computing. Reuters Death toll rises to at least 26 in Russian strikes on Kyiv, other cities. The death toll from Russia’s deadliest air assault on Ukraine’s capital this year stood at 26 on Wednesday, with more than 150 people injured nationwide. Ukrainian officials said Tuesday’s barrage—440 drones and 32 missiles—struck 27 locations across Kyiv in successive waves, flattening part of a residential building in the Solomianskyi district – where 21 were killed – and damaging schools and critical infrastructure. President Volodymyr Zelensky, condemned the strikes as “pure terrorism” and urged Western allies to accelerate deliveries of air defense systems, warning, “this is a matter of life and death.” The assault came as diplomatic efforts faltered and Russia has intensified pressure on the frontlines and Ukrainian cities alike. NV Ukrainska Pravda Putin aide Shoigu, North Korea’s Kim meet as Pyongyang unveils more military aid. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met with Russian security chief Sergei Shoigu in Pyongyang on Tuesday to deepen military cooperation with Moscow, including the deployment of additional North Korean personnel to Russia. Russian media reported that Pyongyang agreed to send 6,000 military workers—5,000 for infrastructure reconstruction and 1,000 sappers for mine clearance in the Kursk region. This marks the third Shoigu-Kim meeting in three months, as both nations expand their strategic alliance under international sanctions. Kim reaffirmed his unconditional support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. U.S. and South Korean officials condemned the move, warning of growing military collaboration and possible exchanges of technology and weapons. South Korea estimates North Korea has already sent at least 15,000 troops to Russia since last fall. The partnership raises alarms in Seoul and Washington, complicating peace prospects on the Korean Peninsula and intensifying concerns over North Korea’s access to modern combat experience and advanced military tech. Bloomberg New York Times Reuters The Moscow Times Associated Press Treasury secretary says Ukraine minerals deal could launch economic growth. In an interview on Pod Force One, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the recently signed U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal could spark economic growth in Ukraine on par with post-Cold War Poland, potentially deterring future Russian aggression. The deal, signed in April, includes the establishment of a Joint Reconstruction Investment Fund, which will allow both nations to acquire oil, gas and critical mineral licenses and split any profits 50/50. American military assistance to Ukraine will also be counted as a financial contribution to the fund, allowing Washington to continue supporting the war effort without dipping into taxpayer money. Bessent acknowledged corruption concerns but expressed confidence the funds would benefit ordinary Ukrainians. He said that President Volodymyr Zelensky initially hesitated due to internal pressures. With rebuilding costs estimated at $524 billion, the deal could give U.S. investors a foothold in Ukraine’s reconstruction. Bessent emphasized the partnership’s strategic value: “If they win, we win. If we win, they win.” New York Post Ukraine’s ‘Spiderweb’ drone assault forces Russia to shelter, move aircraft. Ukraine’s June 1 drone offensive, dubbed Operation Spiderweb, forced Russia to relocate and fortify its strategic bomber fleet, marking a major shift in Moscow’s defense posture. The attack damaged or destroyed aircraft at key airbases—including Olenya, Belaya, and Dyagilevo—and shattered Russia’s sense of security deep within its territory. In response, Russia began rapidly constructing shelters and dispersing aircraft to more remote or protected sites. Satellite imagery shows new fortifications at Kirovskoe, Gvardiyskoye, and Saki in Crimea, as well as Engels airbase and others across Russia. All Tu-95 bombers were withdrawn from Olenya in the Arctic by June 7. Analysts say this response underscores Ukraine’s ability to project power thousands of kilometers from the front lines, reshaping Russia’s air defense strategy. While the long-term military effect remains uncertain, the strikes dealt a psychological blow and forced costly shifts in Russian force deployment and infrastructure. Al Jazeera Drones, Distractions, Diplomacy: How Could The Israel-Iran Conflict Affect Russia’s War Against Ukraine? The Israel-Iran conflict is creating ripple effects that could complicate the war in Ukraine, largely to Moscow’s advantage. As global attention shifts to the Middle East, U.S. and European focus—and potentially weapons and aid—may be diverted from Ukraine. Higher oil prices driven by regional instability could boost Russian revenues, undermining Western sanctions aimed at crippling the Kremlin’s war machine. While some analysts suggest Iran’s drone supplies to Russia may be affected, Moscow has localized production of Shahed variants. Politically, Russian officials hope Israel’s strikes on Iranian cities will blunt criticism of Russia’s own attacks on Ukrainian civilians. President Donald Trump, now prioritizing mediation between Israel and Iran, may delay new pressure on Moscow. Though Trump has voiced frustration with President Vladimir Putin’s intransigence, he is considering involving the Kremlin as a mediator in Middle East diplomacy, potentially giving Putin more leverage in global affairs. Still, experts agree Ukraine remains Putin’s primary strategic focus despite the distractions. RFE/RL Trump’s Ukraine envoy to meet Belarus’ Lukashenko, sources say . U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg is planning a high-level visit to Belarus to meet President Alexander Lukashenko, marking the most senior U.S. engagement with the Belarusian leader in years. The trip, not yet public, aims to explore ways to advance stalled Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks, though its agenda remains unclear. Under President Donald Trump’s second term, Washington has renewed efforts to draw Minsk away from Moscow’s orbit, reversing Joe Biden-era policies that isolated Belarus after its 2020 election crackdown. Recent gestures suggest Lukashenko may be open to thawing ties. However, Western diplomats remain skeptical, citing Belarus’ alignment with Russia and its deep economic ties to Moscow. Reuters Ukraine allows multiple citizenship as war drags on . Ukraine’s parliament approved a law allowing dual or multiple citizenships, aiming to address a demographic crisis worsened by the ongoing war with Russia and to strengthen ties with the global Ukrainian diaspora. Previously, Ukrainians had to renounce other citizenships to obtain a Ukrainian passport. The government estimates the diaspora at 25 million people, while Ukraine’s current population has declined to 32 million—down from 52 million in 1991. The war, now in its fourth year, has displaced over 5 million Ukrainians to Europe and caused tens of thousands of deaths. The new law simplifies citizenship for children born abroad, spouses, and foreigners fighting for Ukraine. While it doesn’t outright ban Russians, it allows restrictions tied to armed aggression. Applicants must pass a test on Ukrainian language, history, and the constitution. Reuters ‘Street Of Death’: RFE/RL Unmasks Russian Soldiers Behind Bucha Killings. A new investigation by RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service reconstructs the massacre of civilians on Yablunska Street in Bucha over three days in March 2022, during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Using surveillance footage, drone images, and military records, the report identifies soldiers from Russia’s 234th Pskov Regiment as key perpetrators. Civilians were executed in cold blood, including Valeriy Kizilov, shot outside his home while his wife hid in the cellar, and a fleeing family whose vehicle was fired upon, killing a father and maiming a child. Identified soldiers, including Sergeant Vladimir Borzunov and Lieutenant Artyom Tareyev, showed no remorse. Survivors’ testimonies and documented evidence starkly contradict Russian denials and claims that the massacre was staged. Ukraine has charged several Russian officers in absentia and urged the International Criminal Court to investigate the killings as war crimes. The Bucha atrocities remain emblematic of the brutality inflicted during Russia’s early assault on Kyiv. RFE/RL ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, June 17. The European Union and UK introduced new sanctions packages against Russia targeting its financial, military, and energy sectors, including measures against the import/export activity involving occupied Crimea. Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE EU Lays Out Plan to Bolster Defense Industry. The European Commission has unveiled a plan to strengthen the European Union’s defense industry by easing regulatory constraints, aiming to boost competitiveness and speed up project approvals. Key proposals include encouraging merger watchdogs to support defense sector deals, clarifying that some defense investments may qualify as ESG-friendly, and launching a fast-track permitting system to reduce approval times from years to 60 days. These reforms follow broader efforts to revise EU fiscal rules, allowing for increased defense spending, particularly as U.S. military aid to Ukraine is expected to decline. EU leaders emphasized the need for stronger industrial collaboration and regulatory clarity to help European firms compete globally and enhance the bloc’s defense readiness. Wall Street Journal US defense firms chase European military spending wave . U.S. defense firms are aggressively targeting Europe’s sharp surge in military spending at the 2025 Paris Air Show, as European nations ramp up their budgets in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine and uncertainty over the Trump administration’s commitment to regional defense. Major companies like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Boeing, and emerging tech firms such as Anduril and Palantir are forming partnerships—most notably Anduril with Germany’s Rheinmetall and Raytheon’s plan to build Stinger missiles in Europe—to supply fighter jets, missile systems, drones, and advanced technologies while reinforcing transatlantic interoperability. Reuters Rheinmetall, Anduril Team Up to Jointly Produce Defense Systems for Europe. Germany’s Rheinmetall and U.S. defense startup Anduril Industries have announced a new partnership to jointly develop and produce defense systems for Europe, amid rising security investments across the continent. The collaboration will begin with European variants of Anduril’s Barracuda missile and Fury autonomous air vehicle, integrated into Rheinmetall’s digital sovereignty framework. The companies also plan to explore European production of solid rocket motors using Anduril’s methods. Development and manufacturing will involve suppliers and industrial partners across Europe. This expanded alliance builds on previous cooperation and is intended to grow into additional defense areas over time, reinforcing trans-Atlantic defense ties. Wall Street Journal Denmark’s Frederiksen moves to keep Greenland out of Trump’s clutches. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced Tuesday increased investment in Greenland to counter U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed interest in acquiring the Arctic territory. Speaking alongside Greenlandic and Faroese leaders, Frederiksen said Copenhagen would fund critical infrastructure like ports with both civilian and military applications. Trump has made multiple remarks about taking over Greenland, even refusing to rule out military force, sparking condemnation from European leaders. Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory rich in rare earth minerals, has a growing independence movement but favors ties with Denmark over U.S. control. Greenland’s foreign minister also seeks stronger EU cooperation, especially in developing the island’s strategic mineral resources. Politico EU EU Plans Historic Moldova Summit But Stays Vague On Accession Timeline. The European Union will hold its first-ever summit with Moldova on July 4 in Chisinau, signaling deeper political engagement but offering no clear timeline for EU accession. The summit aims to reward President Maia Sandu’s pro-European reforms ahead of Moldova’s fall elections, though Brussels remains concerned about corruption and judicial transparency. The EU may begin accession talks by opening Moldova’s “fundamental cluster” of legal reform, but has removed language about opening all negotiation chapters, reflecting member state hesitations. Diplomats speculate that Moldova could advance ahead of Ukraine due to Hungary’s continued obstruction of Kyiv’s path. The summit declaration sharply criticizes Russia for hybrid threats and calls for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transdniester. The EU also hinted at a potential “Cyprus model” for Moldova’s integration, allowing accession despite unresolved separatist issues. Notably, no new sanctions against Russian-linked individuals were announced, though existing measures against 16 Moldovan figures remain in place. RFE/RL Slovak police seek former defense minister over Ukraine aid, media report. On Wednesday, Slovak police attempted to detain former defense minister Jaroslav Naď and other former officials as part of an investigation into past military aid to Ukraine. The operation, launched by the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO), involves scrutiny of ammunition and weapons donations made after Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion. Naď, currently vacationing in Canada, denied wrongdoing and defended his role, stating he remains proud of supporting Ukraine. Police detained the former head of a state-owned defense company, while probes also target past donations of MiG-29 jets and air defense systems. Prime Minister Robert Fico’s government, in power since 2023, has reversed pro-Ukraine policies, ended military aid, and advocated closer ties with Russia. Fico also criticized NATO spending plans and questioned Slovakia’s alliance membership, suggesting neutrality might better serve the country. France’s Airbus weighs boosting tanker production amid ‘very high’ demand . Airbus is mulling the idea of significantly increasing production of its A330 Multi Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) aircraft due to surging global demand, particularly in Europe, where air-to-air refueling capability is lacking. Currently producing 4–5 MRTTs annually, Airbus may ramp up to six or eight, with higher rates requiring new facilities. Demand is driven by NATO allies expanding the European MRTT fleet and interest from new global customers. Airbus also revealed that the first MRTT+ — a fuel-efficient A330neo-based variant — is in production and expected by 2028. Separately, Airbus showcased new features for its A400M transport aircraft, such as increased payload, drone deployment capability, and electronic warfare functions. France and Spain agreed to accelerate A400M deliveries, helping Airbus maintain a sustainable production rate of eight per year through at least early 2029, with flexibility for export orders. On Wednesday, Slovak police attempted to detain former defense minister Jaroslav Naď and other former officials as part of an investigation into past military aid to Ukraine. The operation, launched by the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO), involves scrutiny of ammunition and weapons donations made after Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion. Naď, currently vacationing in Canada, denied wrongdoing and defended his role, stating he remains proud of supporting Ukraine. Police detained the former head of a state-owned defense company, while probes also target past donations of MiG-29 jets and air defense systems. Prime Minister Robert Fico’s government, in power since 2023, has reversed pro-Ukraine policies, ended military aid, and advocated closer ties with Russia. Fico also criticized NATO spending plans and questioned Slovakia’s alliance membership, suggesting neutrality might better serve the country. Reuters

. Airbus is mulling the idea of significantly increasing production of its A330 Multi Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) aircraft due to surging global demand, particularly in Europe, where air-to-air refueling capability is lacking. Currently producing 4–5 MRTTs annually, Airbus may ramp up to six or eight, with higher rates requiring new facilities. Demand is driven by NATO allies expanding the European MRTT fleet and interest from new global customers. Airbus also revealed that the first MRTT+ — a fuel-efficient A330neo-based variant — is in production and expected by 2028. Separately, Airbus showcased new features for its A400M transport aircraft, such as increased payload, drone deployment capability, and electronic warfare functions. France and Spain agreed to accelerate A400M deliveries, helping Airbus maintain a sustainable production rate of eight per year through at least early 2029, with flexibility for export orders. Defense News FlightGlobal

Unmanned Leonardo jet trainers could take GCAP drone role, CEO says. Italy is keeping its options open for developing drone technology under the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), with Leonardo CEO Roberto Cingolani suggesting Italy may convert its M-345 or M-346 trainer jets into unmanned aircraft. While the partnership with Turkish drone maker Baykar introduces alternatives like the jet-powered Kizilelma, Cingolani emphasized Italy could reverse the typical approach — modifying manned aircraft into drones rather than adapting drones into aircraft. His remarks suggest Baykar won’t automatically supply the GCAP drone component. The sixth-generation GCAP fighter, jointly developed by the UK, Italy, and Japan, is envisioned to operate alongside advanced drones. While focus currently centers on the main piloted aircraft — reportedly massive in size — partners can independently pursue drone developments over the next five years. Defense News

THE MIDDLE EAST Trump demands complete ‘surrender’ by Tehran as US mulls military action. President Trump has sharply escalated his rhetoric toward Iran, calling for its “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” and hinting at possible U.S. military action in coordination with Israel’s ongoing strikes. While no formal decision has been made, Trump suggested U.S. forces could target Iran’s leadership and nuclear sites, notably the fortified Fordow enrichment facility. As the conflict entered its sixth day, he boasted of having “total control of the skies over Iran,” and said Washington knew the location of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but wouldn’t target him “for now.” This marks a shift from his earlier push for negotiations, prompted by his growing skepticism about reaching a nuclear deal. Trump’s administration is deploying additional military assets to Europe and the Middle East, signaling readiness for a potential strike while maintaining ambiguity. Legal and strategic concerns loom over the prospect of a U.S. attack, with experts warning of serious Iranian retaliation. The president’s alignment with Israel and hardline stance on Iran could plunge the region into deeper instability. Wall Street Journal New York Times Reuters Axios Iran’s Khamenei rejects Trump’s call for unconditional surrender. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Wednesday publicly rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for Iran’s unconditional surrender, warning that no peace or war terms can be imposed on the Islamic Republic. “Intelligent people who know Iran, the Iranian nation, and its history will never speak to this nation in threatening language because the Iranian nation will not surrender,” he said. “The Americans should know that any U.S. military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage.” His remarks came as Israeli warplanes bombed Tehran overnight, prompting thousands to flee. Israel said 50 jets struck 20 targets tied to missile production. A source indicated Trump is weighing options, including joining Israel in strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Iran warned it would retaliate against any U.S. involvement, calling Washington complicit in Israel’s actions. Reuters New York Times How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure From Israel . In the weeks leading up to Israel’s massive strikes on Iran, President Donald Trump vacillated between diplomacy and military engagement. Initially resisting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s calls for a preemptive attack, Trump pursued negotiations with Iran, even sending a personal letter to Ayatollah Khamenei. However, as U.S. intelligence concluded that Netanyahu would strike regardless of U.S. involvement, Trump grew frustrated with the stalled talks and began shifting. After Israel launched its assault on Thursday, Trump’s position evolved from cautious distance to behind-the-scenes support—authorizing intelligence sharing and weighing military involvement, including refueling Israeli jets or striking Iran’s Fordow site. Despite internal concerns about regime-change entanglement, Trump’s team—largely loyalists—aligned with his instincts. As the conflict escalated, Trump moved closer to Netanyahu’s aggressive posture, believing Iran had played him diplomatically. While some in his circle still hoped for a deal, Trump now appears poised to escalate U.S. involvement, framing it as essential to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. New York Times This ‘Bunker Buster’ U.S. Bomb Could Cripple Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions. The 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), designed to pierce up to 200 feet of rock, is the U.S.’s most potent non-nuclear weapon for targeting deeply buried nuclear sites like Iran’s Fordow facility. Developed at a cost of $400 million and deployable via B-2 stealth bombers, the MOP is viewed by analysts as the best chance of neutralizing hardened underground targets. While Israel has already hit Iran’s Natanz underground centrifuge halls site, the Fordow uranium-enrichment facility remains untouched. If the U.S. joins Israel’s campaign, former Pentagon officials suggest MOPs would be the optimal tool. Though the United Nations warns of safety risks, experts believe radiation leakage from strikes on Fordow would be minimal. Israel may still act alone using smaller bunker busters, cyberattacks, or commandos, but U.S. involvement would raise the operation’s chances of success. President Donald Trump, who once favored diplomacy, has shifted to threats, hinting at a broader escalation. Wall Street Journal Israel Is Running Low on Defensive Interceptors, Official Says. Israel is running low on Arrow interceptors, key components of its missile defense system used to counter Iranian long-range ballistic missiles, according to a U.S. official. The shortage has raised alarm in both Washington and Tel Aviv, especially as the conflict with Iran continues to escalate. The U.S. has been supplementing Israel’s defenses with additional missile systems across land, sea, and air, but experts warn that both nations are depleting interceptor stockpiles at an unsustainable rate. Israel Aerospace Industries, the Arrow’s manufacturer, declined to comment, and the Israeli Defense Forces said it is prepared for any scenario but would not discuss munitions levels. The growing shortage underscores vulnerabilities in Israel’s multilayered defense posture. Wall Street Journal US is moving fighter jets to the Middle East as Israel-Iran war rages . The U.S. is deploying additional fighter jets, including F-16s, F-22s, and F-35s, to the Middle East and extending existing air force missions amid escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, U.S. officials confirmed. The moves are described as defensive, aimed at protecting American forces and assets from potential Iranian retaliation. The Pentagon is also considering sending more Navy warships to the Eastern Mediterranean to enhance ballistic missile defense. These deployments follow the dispatch of tanker aircraft to Europe and an aircraft carrier to the region. The U.S. already maintains about 40,000 troops in the Middle East. Tensions surged after Israel launched its largest-ever air campaign on Iran, citing nuclear concerns. Reuters As Israel Targets Iran’s Nuclear Program, It Has a Secret One of Its Own. As Israel targets Iran’s nuclear facilities, scrutiny has turned to Israel’s own secretive nuclear weapons program—long an open secret but never officially acknowledged. Experts estimate Israel holds at least 90 nuclear warheads, with materials to produce many more. Its arsenal, deliverable by jets, submarines, or missiles, is believed to be based at the Dimona facility in the Negev desert, where recent satellite imagery suggests upgrades or reactor expansion. Israel is not a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and has never allowed international inspections of Dimona. While Israel maintains it will not be the first to “introduce” nuclear weapons in the region, its policy is seen as strategic ambiguity. Historical records indicate Israel gained nuclear capability by 1967 but has never used the weapons in war. The program’s existence is seen as a key part of Israel’s deterrence posture, rooted in national survival, particularly in the wake of the Holocaust and regional hostility. New York Times US pulls out of two more bases in Syria, worrying Kurdish forces. U.S. forces have withdrawn from two more bases in northeastern Syria—Al-Wazir and Tel Baydar—bringing the total to at least four closures since President Donald Trump took office. Reporters confirmed the sites were largely abandoned, guarded only by small units of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – the Kurdish-led military group that Washington has backed in the fight against the Islamic State for a decade. The drawdown, reducing the U.S. presence from eight to one base with as few as 500 soldiers, has alarmed SDF commander Mazloum Abdi, who warned it could fuel an Islamic State resurgence. ISIS has become more active, launching deadly attacks and seizing weapons amid post-Assad chaos. Just hours after Abdi’s interview at Al Shadadi base, Iranian-made missiles targeted the site, underscoring the region’s rising volatility. Reuters As Other Arab States Condemn Israeli Attacks on Iran, Syria Is Notably Silent. Syria’s silence following Israel’s major strikes on Iran marks a dramatic shift in regional dynamics. Under new President Ahmed al-Shara, Syria has broken from its historic alliance with Tehran, pledging to expel Iranian proxies and prevent attacks on Israel from its territory. This realignment aims to distance Syria from the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” and win favor with Western nations. Analysts say Syria’s quiet response is a signal to Israel and the U.S. of its new stance. Al-Shara’s government has even held direct talks with Israeli officials over security issues—once unthinkable. While Syria hopes for a weakened Iran, there’s concern it may face pressure to normalize ties with Israel. New York Times Despite Close Ties With Iran, Russia Stands Aside as Israel Attacks. Despite its strategic alliance with Iran, Russia has remained militarily neutral as Israel strikes Iranian nuclear and military targets. Though President Vladimir Putin condemned the attacks and offered mediation, Moscow has prioritized its own interests—namely, maintaining stability in the Middle East and focusing on the war in Ukraine. The recently ratified Russia-Iran strategic partnership lacks a mutual defense clause, and analysts note that Moscow is unwilling to risk alienating Gulf allies or triggering confrontation with the U.S. Putin instead sees value in presenting Russia as a mediator, even offering to store Iran’s enriched uranium as part of future nuclear negotiations. However, Russia’s limited arms support and reluctance to engage militarily expose the fragility of its regional influence and deepens Iranian mistrust. For now, the Kremlin benefits from global distraction and rising oil prices, but its passive stance could weaken its long-term leverage in both Tehran and the broader Middle East. New York Times Deutsche Welle Iran leader Khamenei sees his inner circle hollowed out by Israel. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has suffered a devastating blow to his inner circle, with Israeli strikes killing key Revolutionary Guard commanders, including Hossein Salami, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and Mohammad Kazemi. These losses have left Khamenei, 86, increasingly isolated and raised fears of strategic miscalculations. While still surrounded by political and diplomatic advisors, his son Mojtaba has become a central figure, coordinating across Iran’s power structure. Despite being cautious and committed to regime survival, Khamenei now faces one of the Islamic Republic’s most perilous moments amid war with Israel, deepening economic hardship, and the collapse of allies like Hezbollah’s leader and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. Reuters Houthi official says group will intervene to support Iran against Israel. On Tuesday, Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a senior member of Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement, told Al Jazeera Mubasher TV that the group will support Iran against Israel, just as it did for Palestinians in Gaza. He confirmed ongoing coordination with Tehran during the current military escalation. This follows a Sunday Houthi announcement claiming attacks on Israel were carried out in coordination with Iran—the first public admission of such joint action by an Iran-aligned group. Reuters Mapping the conflict between Israel and Iran. Israel’s surprise strikes on Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure have triggered a severe escalation, with Iran launching hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli cities. While Israel’s layered missile defense—Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow systems—has intercepted many, Iranian projectiles have penetrated defenses, killing at least 24 civilians and damaging critical infrastructure. Israel claims to have destroyed about one-third of Iran’s missile launchers and now asserts control of Iranian airspace. Tehran’s response has been weakened by the loss of regional allies and depleted long-range missile stockpiles. Still, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claims to have used new tactics to evade Israeli defenses. As civilian casualties mount on both sides, Israel warns that further attacks will lead to intensified retaliation, with Defense Minister Israel Katz threatening to “burn Tehran.” Maps and imagery show extensive damage in both capitals, underscoring the scale and danger of the widening conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump has called for mass evacuations in Tehran. Reuters Why the Strait of Hormuz is critical to global oil supplies. The Strait of Hormuz, a 33-kilometer-wide passage between Iran and Oman, is the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint. Approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil and fuels pass through it daily, primarily bound for Asia—especially China, India, Japan, and South Korea, which collectively receive nearly 70% of these shipments. Hostilities between Iran and Israel have heightened fears of disruption, although no major attacks have occurred so far. Electronic interference and rising shipping costs signal increasing risk. A closure could trigger a spike in oil prices and provoke U.S. military intervention. Iran also relies on the strait for its own oil exports, making closure self-damaging. Gulf nations, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have limited alternative routes to bypass the Strait, but only about 2.6 million barrels per day could be rerouted, far below current volumes. Deutsche Welle UAE rescues 24 from burning oil tanker after ship collision. Two oil tankers collided Tuesday near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United Arab Emirates National Guard to rescue 24 crew members from the tanker Adalynn, which caught fire after striking the Front Eagle, managed by Hong Kong-based Anglo Eastern. The incident, 22 nautical miles from Khor Fakkan, was not security-related, according to British firm Ambrey. The Front Eagle also experienced a deck fire, but both crews were safely evacuated. The collision raised further concerns about the stability of this vital oil transit route amid regional tensions. Deutsche Welle Associated Press Israeli fire kills 30 in Gaza, medics say, as attention shifts to Iran. At least 30 Palestinians were killed across Gaza on Wednesday by Israeli gunfire and airstrikes, according to local medics, amid growing fears that the ongoing war is being overshadowed by Israel’s new conflict with Iran. Victims included civilians seeking aid, with 11 reportedly shot while waiting for food along the Salahuddin road. Separate strikes in the Maghazi refugee camp, Zeitoun, and Khan Younis killed 19 more. Since late May, 397 people seeking aid have been killed and over 3,000 injured. Gaza’s health ministry reports nearly 55,000 total Palestinian deaths since the war began in October 2023. The Israel Defense Forces stated it is targeting Hamas while attempting to minimize civilian harm. Residents lament being forgotten as humanitarian conditions worsen, with widespread hunger and displacement affecting over 2 million people. Israel denies accusations of genocide and insists Hamas uses aid for militant purposes—claims Hamas rejects. At least 30 Palestinians were killed across Gaza on Wednesday by Israeli gunfire and airstrikes, according to local medics, amid growing fears that the ongoing war is being overshadowed by Israel’s new conflict with Iran. Victims included civilians seeking aid, with 11 reportedly shot while waiting for food along the Salahuddin road. Separate strikes in the Maghazi refugee camp, Zeitoun, and Khan Younis killed 19 more. Since late May, 397 people seeking aid have been killed and over 3,000 injured. Gaza’s health ministry reports nearly 55,000 total Palestinian deaths since the war began in October 2023. The Israel Defense Forces stated it is targeting Hamas while attempting to minimize civilian harm. Residents lament being forgotten as humanitarian conditions worsen, with widespread hunger and displacement affecting over 2 million people. Israel denies accusations of genocide and insists Hamas uses aid for militant purposes—claims Hamas rejects. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA China’s got the world in a rare earth choke hold . China is leveraging its dominance over rare earth minerals to gain strategic advantage amid intensifying global trade tensions, especially with the U.S. and European Union. President Trump recently celebrated a draft deal with Beijing, which includes China agreeing to supply rare earth elements essential to American industries, in exchange for Washington scrapping plans to revoke Chinese student visas. However, European leaders remain wary, accusing China of “weaponizing” its monopoly on critical minerals like those used in green energy, defense, and tech. China currently controls over 90% of global rare earth refining and nearly all of the EU’s supply, having built this dominance over decades. Recent export controls, applied to all countries, have disrupted supply chains and heightened concerns across Western industries. Though the bloc is trying to diversify sources and increase domestic production, reducing reliance on China could take decades. Meanwhile, a confident Beijing is expanding its control further along the minerals value chain, strengthening its geopolitical edge. Politico EU Is North Korea boosting its nuclear capabilities? The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed that North Korea is constructing a new facility at its Yongbyon nuclear complex, with features resembling the Kangson enrichment plant, heightening concerns about Pyongyang’s expanding nuclear capabilities. Satellite imagery and analysis suggest North Korea is increasing its production infrastructure, including possible underground radioactive waste storage. Despite already possessing an operational nuclear arsenal, leader Kim Jong Un appears intent on further nuclear development as a safeguard for regime survival. A recent Stockholm International Peace Research Institute report estimates North Korea has 50 nuclear warheads and the capacity for up to 90. Experts suggest Pyongyang may be preparing for a strategic shift — either to deter U.S. intervention or to force negotiations. Kim’s growing ties with Russia have emboldened him, contributing to regional anxieties. While some in South Korea support developing their own nuclear deterrent, practical and diplomatic costs make such a move unlikely for now, despite the North’s aggressive trajectory. Deutsche Welle Taiwan seals Ukraine combat-tested drone software deal to help deter China . Taiwan has partnered with U.S.-German firm Auterion to integrate combat-tested drone software, used by Ukraine against Russia, into its defense strategy against growing Chinese military threats. The deal, signed with Taiwan’s National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology, aims to build a large autonomous drone fleet capable of deterring and damaging high-value targets like tanks and ships. Auterion expects the partnership to involve millions of drones and generate hundreds of millions in value over several years. Inspired by Ukraine’s use of drones in asymmetric warfare, Taiwan is accelerating efforts to modernize its forces with agile, lower-cost systems. At a sea drone exhibition in Suao, officials displayed drones for both explosive attacks and reconnaissance. Chung-Shan’s president thanked foreign companies for participating and, acknowledging likely Chinese sanctions, encouraged them for siding with democracy. Reuters New Zealand PM to discuss trade, tourism and security on first visit to China . New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is visiting China this week to bolster trade, tourism, and education ties while also addressing security and defense concerns. His first trip since taking office in November 2023 includes meetings with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. While economic cooperation remains strong—China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner—Beijing’s growing influence in the Pacific and military presence in the region pose diplomatic challenges. Luxon aims to maintain a “mature relationship,” balancing economic gains with regional security concerns. A new visa waiver trial for Chinese tourists will begin in November, following China’s reciprocal policy for New Zealanders. Despite Wellington’s traditionally moderate stance toward China compared to other Five Eyes allies, it has become more vocal on human rights and Pacific militarization. Luxon calls China “vital” to New Zealand’s economy and sees ongoing engagement as essential amid global uncertainty. . New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is visiting China this week to bolster trade, tourism, and education ties while also addressing security and defense concerns. His first trip since taking office in November 2023 includes meetings with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. While economic cooperation remains strong—China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner—Beijing’s growing influence in the Pacific and military presence in the region pose diplomatic challenges. Luxon aims to maintain a “mature relationship,” balancing economic gains with regional security concerns. A new visa waiver trial for Chinese tourists will begin in November, following China’s reciprocal policy for New Zealanders. Despite Wellington’s traditionally moderate stance toward China compared to other Five Eyes allies, it has become more vocal on human rights and Pacific militarization. Luxon calls China “vital” to New Zealand’s economy and sees ongoing engagement as essential amid global uncertainty. Reuters

AFRICA A look at Mali after five years of military rule .Since taking power through coups in 2020 and 2021, Malian military leader Assimi Goita has postponed elections, extended his presidency to 2030, and quashed opposition voices. Despite justifying the takeover with promises to defeat jihadists, violence has intensified, with terrorism spreading rapidly across the country. While the army—backed by Russian Wagner mercenaries—retook the city of Kidal in 2023, Islamist and Tuareg rebel attacks have continued. In 2025, the regime dissolved all political parties, silenced dissent, and detained activists and journalists, prompting fears of rising dictatorship. Despite human rights abuses and economic strain—including inflation, power shortages, and unpopular taxes—some Malians still support the government, viewing it as a break from a corrupt, pro-French elite. Corruption perceptions have improved slightly, but economic progress remains limited. Western nations have pulled back engagement, while Russia deepens ties. The education sector, among others, is suffering from stalled reforms and shrinking international support. Deutsche Welle Mali’s ruling junta launches construction of Russia-backed gold refinery . Mali’s military government, determined to assert greater control over its natural resources, began constructing a new Russia-backed gold refinery on June 16. The 200-ton capacity facility, located in Senou near Bamako, will be built with Russia’s Yadran Group and a Swiss investment firm, with Mali holding a controlling stake. President Assimi Goita says the project is part of broader reforms mandating local gold processing to increase revenue and economic benefits. Once operational, the refinery will process all of Mali’s gold and potentially serve neighboring countries like Burkina Faso. The move reflects a regional trend, as Guinea, Niger, and Burkina Faso also revise mining codes to promote domestic refining. The project comes amid rising tensions with Western companies, including a legal dispute with Canadian miner Barrick. Goita stressed the refinery’s role in curbing gold smuggling and enhancing export traceability, as West Africa continues to lack certified refining infrastructure despite its vast gold output. Reuters BBC RFI Survivors reeling after gunmen kill 100 in Nigeria, leaving devastation and burned remains . Gunmen attacked the central Nigerian town of Yelwata in Benue state last Friday night, killing around 100 people, according to Amnesty International. Among the victims were five family members of a farmer called Fidelis Adidi, who was interviewed by Reuters. The attack killed one of his wives and four children, while his second wife and another child were injured. The violence, rooted in long-standing conflicts between farmers and cattle herders over land, continues to escalate in Nigeria’s Middle Belt, where ethnic and religious tensions also fuel unrest. President Bola Tinubu called the attacks “depressing” and is set to visit Benue this week. The National Emergency Management Agency reports that at least 3,000 people have been displaced. Survivors returned to find their homes and livelihoods destroyed, but many remain determined to stay. The government and aid agencies are working to provide relief amid mounting calls for better security and protection. . Gunmen attacked the central Nigerian town of Yelwata in Benue state last Friday night, killing around 100 people, according to Amnesty International. Among the victims were five family members of a farmer called Fidelis Adidi, who was interviewed by Reuters. The attack killed one of his wives and four children, while his second wife and another child were injured. The violence, rooted in long-standing conflicts between farmers and cattle herders over land, continues to escalate in Nigeria’s Middle Belt, where ethnic and religious tensions also fuel unrest. President Bola Tinubu called the attacks “depressing” and is set to visit Benue this week. The National Emergency Management Agency reports that at least 3,000 people have been displaced. Survivors returned to find their homes and livelihoods destroyed, but many remain determined to stay. The government and aid agencies are working to provide relief amid mounting calls for better security and protection. Reuters Deutsche Welle Al Jazeera Associated Press

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS Israel-linked hacking group claims disruptive cyberattack on Iranian bank network . Predatory Sparrow, a hacking group reportedly with links to Israeli intelligence, has claimed responsibility for a cyberattack on Bank Sepah, an Iranian bank, in retaliation for the institution’s alleged role in financing Iran’s military and nuclear programs. Customer services were disrupted by the attack, with impacts on account access, withdrawals, and card payments, according to media outlets affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The disruption may have extended to Iranian gas stations, which rely on Bank Sepah to process transactions. Several Bank Sepah branches were closed following the cyberattack, while some government staff and security personnel reported delays in salary payments. In a statement on X, Predatory Sparrow hackers said they destroyed the bank’s infrastructure with help from “brave Iranians.” The statement went on to say, “This is what happens to institutions dedicated to maintaining the dictator’s terrorist fantasies.” Security experts say the conflict has expanded into cyberspace, triggering attacks by state-backed hackers and affiliated hacktivist groups. Some pro-Iran groups have warned neighboring countries, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, that support for Israel could lead to cyberattacks on national infrastructure. The Record CyberScoop Bloomberg Cybersecurity experts warn U.S. organizations to adopt ‘high alert’ to possible Iranian cyberattacks . Cybersecurity experts are warning that a less visible, but still destructive, digital conflict is unfolding between Israel and Iran as airstrikes and missile attacks continue between the two countries. The cybersecurity community sees the potential of disruptions to critical infrastructure, commercial networks, and global supply chains. Experts are urging U.S. businesses to be vigilant for potential Iranian cyberattacks on domestic infrastructure. The U.S. response to the military conflict is seen as determining the scale and nature of potential Iranian cyberattacks on American organizations. Gil Messing, chief of staff at Israel-based Check Point Software Technologies, told Axios that several disinformation campaigns apparently originating with Iranian-linked actors were launched in the days following the strikes. Typical of these disinformation operations, Messing said, was a text message sent to thousands of Israelis warning that fuel supplies would be halted at gas stations for 24 hours. Another message carried a fake warning of a possible terrorist attack at a regional shelter, urging recipients to avoid the area in an apparent attempt to sow panic during missile attacks. Messing added that lower-level cyber activity potentially linked to Iran, including DDoS attacks and phishing campaigns, have been observed. Looking ahead, experts expect increased activity from politically motivated hackers as happened in the aftermath of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel. Axios Wall Street Journal US-China Tech Fight Widens After Taiwan Blacklists Huawei. Taiwan has blacklisted Chinese tech giants Huawei and SMIC, aligning with a long-running U.S. push to curb China’s semiconductor ambitions. This marks Taipei’s first use of its entity list against major Chinese firms and signals a shift away from years of economic cooperation. The move follows U.S. pressure under both the Trump and Biden administrations to tighten enforcement of chip export controls. While the blacklist may not immediately disrupt business—since many Taiwanese firms operate through mainland subsidiaries—it reflects President Lai Ching-te’s broader goal of reducing economic dependence on China and countering Beijing’s influence. The decision also highlights rising cross-Strait tensions, with China accusing Lai of fueling regional instability. Despite Beijing’s condemnation, Taiwan is signaling deeper alignment with U.S. tech policy, suggesting further restrictions may follow. The move underscores a new era of strategic tech competition, as Taiwan distances itself economically and politically from the Asian giant. Bloomberg Amazon CEO Jassy informs employees that AI will reduce its workforce. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told employees on Tuesday that artificial intelligence will reduce the company’s corporate workforce in the coming years, citing efficiency gains across operations. In a memo that was also posted publicly, Jassy said AI will streamline both software development and warehouse logistics, including inventory and robotics. While AI adoption has boosted productivity, it has also renewed fears about job losses. Other tech leaders, including Anthropic’s CEO, have warned of rising unemployment due to AI. Economists note past automation waves had mixed impacts, but recent job declines in programming suggest this AI wave may be different. Jassy urged employees to embrace AI, saying those who adapt will thrive at Amazon. The memo comes amid broader tech industry layoffs and Amazon’s cost-cutting efforts under Jassy’s leadership. Though the company touts its AI tools and services, employees report that quiet layoffs and hiring freezes have already become common in recent years. Washington Post CNBC CNN Chinese intelligence investments in AI focus on boosting analysis, developing wartime plans . Chinese intelligence services have made substantial investments in AI to accelerate analysis, provide early threat warnings, and develop operational wartime plans. In arriving at these findings, Recorded Future’s Insikt Group reviewed patent applications by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), publicly available contracts, and other material to gain insights into AI investment patterns and trends in China’s military and intelligence services. Recorded Future researchers assessed that China is likely using a variety of large language models (LLMs) to analyze vast data stores and render results in coherent forms. Recorded Future uncovered specific examples of how Chinese intelligence could be using LLMs and generative AI not only to improve analysis, but also to enhance targeting and operational plans for military commanders. Zoe Haver, the author of the study and a senior Insikt Group threat analyst, cited the example of a patent application filed by the Ordnance Science and Research Academy of China that focused on using various forms of intelligence to train a military model. The application described ways that the model could be used to develop operational plans and assist battlefield intelligence analysts in analyzing friendly and enemy forces. Haver described the project as “very broad ranging and intended to be applicable across the intelligence cycle.” New York Times The S&P 500 Is Nearing a Record. Really . Despite rising geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and a major war between Israel and Iran, U.S. stocks are climbing, with the S&P 500 only 2.6% below its record high. This “reluctant rally” has been driven by delayed tariffs, resilient economic data, and strong tech performance, particularly from a few dominant firms like Nvidia and Meta. However, under the surface, investors remain wary. Derivatives markets show increased hedging against future drops, and government bond yields have surged amid concerns over the $35 trillion U.S. debt and fiscal policy. Oil prices are also rising due to Middle East instability, threatening to reignite inflation and stall Fed rate cuts. Additionally, widening gaps between Treasury yields and “risk-free” benchmarks like SOFR signal deeper investor unease. While markets appear calm now, analysts warn that volatility and a correction could hit in the second half of 2025 as risks mount across multiple fronts. New York Times

China Is Unleashing a New Export Shock on the World . A new wave of Chinese exports—dubbed the “second China shock”—is reshaping global trade, as Chinese manufacturers flood international markets with low-cost goods to offset weak domestic demand and a collapsing property sector. With U.S. tariffs under President Trump cutting China off from its largest market, Chinese exports have surged to countries like Germany, Brazil, and Indonesia, creating economic disruption and political tension. China’s trade surplus has soared nearly 40% this year, as its government-backed manufacturing drive overproduces everything from toys to electric vehicles. Countries receiving this export deluge now face tough choices: impose tariffs and risk backlash from either China or the U.S., or allow local industries to be overwhelmed. While some nations benefit from diverted investment, others are seeing job losses and factory closures. China’s evolving industrial model—combining high-tech and low-end production—challenges conventional economic development theory and adds pressure to a world already navigating geopolitical and trade realignments. New York Times Government reports says April blackout in Spain and Portugal was caused by ‘voltage surge’. A Spanish government report released Tuesday revealed that a major blackout on April 28 across Spain and Portugal was caused by a voltage surge that triggered a chain reaction of protective shutdowns in the power grid. The outage, which lasted over 10 hours, disrupted transport, communications, and businesses. Energy Minister Sara Aagesen said the surge originated in southern Spain and was worsened by technical faults, programming errors, and poor planning. Large gas and nuclear plants failed to cushion the surge, and grid operator Red Electrica did not activate enough thermal plants in time. While some questioned Spain’s reliance on renewables, officials dismissed that as a cause and ruled out cyberattacks. The government plans to strengthen grid stability and improve integration with the broader European network. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez reaffirmed commitment to energy transition, despite the blackout being one of Europe’s worst in history. Deutsche Welle The Guardian Associated Press Swedish military joins Telia, Ericsson to boost defense tech .The Swedish Armed Forces have joined the NorthStar 5G innovation program, launched by telecom operator Telia and equipment maker Ericsson, to enhance military communications, logistics, and NATO interoperability. The move reflects growing urgency amid geopolitical tensions and Sweden’s recent NATO membership. Brigadier-General Mattias Hanson said Sweden must accelerate innovation, especially in drone communications, by integrating civilian technologies like 5G with military systems. While the military has its own networks, it plans to combine radio, satellite, fiber, and 5G for greater resilience. Stockholm currently spends 2.7% of its GDP on defense and aims for 3.5% by 2030. The initiative also seeks collaboration with startups to rapidly develop solutions for modern military challenges. European nations have intensified defense efforts as the U.S. under President Trump signals reduced security guarantees, prompting Sweden and others to invest in faster, more flexible, and tech-integrated military infrastructure. Reuters Chinese research team builds world’s first 6G military jamming, communications weapon . A new electronic warfare (EW) weapon, reportedly highly effective against modern military radars, has been developed by Chinese researchers. The system employs a next-generation 6G signal processing mechanism that is said to master high-frequency spectrums with precision. With its photon-powered core, it can intercept signals and generate thousands of false targets to confuse enemy pilots. In addition to its primary role as a ground-based jammer, the weapon can also serve as a powerful communication device, with the ability to receive and transmit large amounts of battlefield data to more than 300 optic-fiber-linked platforms. The system’s dual role is the world’s first application achieving “simultaneous same-frequency full-duplex communication and jamming capabilities.” The project, led by a professor at Huazhong University of Science and Technology, is funded by national research programs and People’s Liberation Army partnerships, with investments of $10 million allocated for laboratory experiments and industrial applications. South China Morning Post Huawei, ByteDance pursue data center, AI project expansion in Brazil . Huawei and ByteDance, two of China’s advanced tech firms, are planning to invest heavily in Brazil’s cloud infrastructure and AI sectors. The moves by the tech giants are likely to deepen U.S concerns about the expanding Chinese digital presence in Latin America. Huawei is reportedly set to announce a deal with the Brazilian state-run technology firm, Dataprev, to utilize its data centers. Talks are also underway between Huawei and Edge UOL, a cloud services arm of Grupo UOL PagSeguro. Huawei Cloud division Latin America president Mark Chen said, “We want to be the bridge between China and Latin America,” adding that it sees Edge UOL as a “strategic service partner.” ByteDance also reportedly is considering new Brazilian data center initiatives, along with a project involving a 300-megawatt data facility with renewable energy provider Casa dos Ventos. The Chinese firms’ interest in Brazilian partnerships comes on the heels of an AI cooperation agreement that was signed last year during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Brasilia. South China Morning Post Nvidia will participate in Beijing supply chain exhibition for the first time . Nvidia will make its first appearance as an exhibitor at what is described as a “flagship supply chain event” in China. According to the event organizer, Nvidia will be one of 100 exhibitors from the U.S. and Europe attending the China International Supply Chain Expo in July. The release of Nvidia’s new AI chip for the Chinese market, the B30, is planned for July, coinciding with the supply chain expo. The participation of U.S. firms has increased by 15 percent this year compared to 2024, a trend reflected in the 3 percent growth of non-mainland Chinese exhibitors at the expo. More than 650 companies, representing digital technology, advanced manufacturing, and smart vehicles, among other sectors, will attend the five-day event in Beijing, which begins on July 16. South China Morning Post China is on pace to double nuclear power capacity by 2040, bypassing the U.S . A new report from the China Nuclear Energy Association (CNEA) indicates that China plans to double its nuclear power capacity by 2040, which would make the country the world’s largest nuclear power generator. Over the next decade and a half, China is expected to increase its installed capacity to 200 gigawatts through the construction of dozens of new reactors, surpassing the current capacity of the U.S. Approximately half of the 61 nuclear reactors currently under construction are located in China. At the end of 2024, China’s 102 reactors had a combined capacity of 113 gigawatts. Ten more reactors were approved by the State Council in April for a combined investment of $27.9 billion. China’s current pace of construction will make it the world’s largest nuclear power generator in installed capacity by 2030. Xing Ji, chief designer of the third-generation Hualong One reactor, stated last week that the “higher safety standards” of Chinese reactors indicate that China could further accelerate its nuclear power expansion if necessary. South China Morning Post Microsoft, OpenAI partnership challenged by ‘for-profit’ status, rival AI products . Tensions between OpenAI and Microsoft MSFT are escalating as the tech giant seeks to gain Microsoft’s approval for its conversion into a for-profit company and to revise certain parts of the partnership agreement. Negotiations between the two firms have been challenging, leading OpenAI executives to consider the drastic step of accusing Microsoft of anticompetitive behavior during their partnership. If pursued, this action by OpenAI could trigger a federal regulatory review of the contract terms for potential antitrust law violations. The move would threaten the partners’ six-year relationship, which has been described as “a long-term, productive partnership that has delivered amazing AI tools for everyone.” OpenAI and Microsoft are at odds over the terms of the startup’s $3 billion acquisition of the Windsurf AI coding startup. OpenAI aims to prevent Microsoft from accessing WindSurf’s intellectual property, given Microsoft’s rival AI coding product, GitHub Copilot. Wall Street Journal TechCrunch Oracle Unveils Initiative to Help Companies Sell Tech to the Pentagon . Oracle has launched the Oracle Defense Ecosystem, a program designed to help smaller tech vendors—especially those developing AI—more easily sell to the U.S. Department of Defense. The initiative provides participants with access to Oracle’s resources, including office space, procurement guidance, and discounted tools like Palantir’s AI platform and Oracle’s NetSuite software. The goal is to simplify defense market entry for innovative startups, while embedding Oracle’s cloud infrastructure deeper into federal operations. Oracle, along with partners like Palantir and Anduril, is positioning itself as a key player in defense tech amid government interest in commercial AI and digital innovation. The company is also engaging directly with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which seeks to cut wasteful contracts and favor cost-effective solutions—potentially benefiting Oracle’s smaller partners. With its cloud revenue growing and AI demand rising, Oracle is using the initiative to both support national security and compete with cloud giants like AWS and Microsoft. . Oracle has launched the Oracle Defense Ecosystem, a program designed to help smaller tech vendors—especially those developing AI—more easily sell to the U.S. Department of Defense. The initiative provides participants with access to Oracle’s resources, including office space, procurement guidance, and discounted tools like Palantir’s AI platform and Oracle’s NetSuite software. The goal is to simplify defense market entry for innovative startups, while embedding Oracle’s cloud infrastructure deeper into federal operations. Oracle, along with partners like Palantir and Anduril, is positioning itself as a key player in defense tech amid government interest in commercial AI and digital innovation. The company is also engaging directly with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which seeks to cut wasteful contracts and favor cost-effective solutions—potentially benefiting Oracle’s smaller partners. With its cloud revenue growing and AI demand rising, Oracle is using the initiative to both support national security and compete with cloud giants like AWS and Microsoft. Wall Street Journal

Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.

Based on factual reporting, incorporates the expertise of the journalist and may offer interpretations and conclusions.

As President Donald Trump sets out for the Middle East in the first international trip of his second administration, signs of disagreements have emerged between the U.S. leader and one of the men who most enthusiastically welcomed his return to office.

Trump’s decision to skip Israel on his tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates comes as the president appeared to sideline Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on several key issues related to the regional conflict that has emerged over the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip.

Now, “the profound extent of their schism” has been laid bare by the White House’s nuclear diplomacy with Iran, direct talks with the Palestinian Hamas movement and Yemeni Ansar Allah—also known as the Houthis—and heightened tariffs against Israel, according to Shalom Lipner, former adviser to seven consecutive Israeli premiers, including Netanyahu.

“Trump and Netanyahu are exasperated with each other—each feeling that their concerns and objectives are under-appreciated by the other,” Lipner, now senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, told Newsweek. “Both of them have legitimate arguments to make, but they seem to be talking past each other.”

A Newsweek illustration depicts U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A Newsweek illustration depicts U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty

For Trump, a president who often boasts about “holding the cards” in high-stakes negotiations—most famously during a heated encounter with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House in late February—Lipner felt the U.S. leader once again appears to have the necessary leverage to get his way.

“The nature of that bilateral relationship—with Israel still reliant upon the military, diplomatic and economic assistance of the United States—is such that the prime minister will have little alternative, but to fall in line ultimately behind the president,” Lipner said.

Measuring the Distance

The extent to which Trump and Netanyahu are truly at odds remains a matter of debate. Officials on both sides have downplayed reports of divisions between the two men.

White House National Security Council spokesperson James Hewitt defended Trump’s record on Israel and said that the president remained committed to the regional goals he has long outlined.

“Israel has had no better friend in its history than President Trump,” Hewitt told Newsweek. “We continue to work closely with our ally Israel to ensure remaining hostages in Gaza are freed, Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon, and to strengthen regional security in the Middle East.”

“As he has repeatedly stated in his first and second terms, the President is committed to ensuring Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon,” Hewitt added.

Israeli Consul General in New York Ofir Akunis, appointed by Netanyahu in May 2024, argued that ties between the two leaders remained strong, particularly in comparison to the experience under the Biden administration.

“The relationship between the current American administration and the Israeli government, headed by President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, is very close, and it’s very good,” Akunis told Newsweek. “The only leader that visited the White House twice from January was Netanyahu, so you can judge yourself.”

“Of course, by the way, it’s not that we will not find ourselves thinking in different ways about the solutions to all the issues in the Middle East,” he added. “But we’re talking about it.”

Israeli Minister of Science, Technology and Space Ofir Akunis at Open Innovations 2016 forum in Skolkovo. Israeli Minister of Science, Technology and Space Ofir Akunis at Open Innovations 2016 forum in Skolkovo. Ramil Sitdikov/Sputnik/AP

Akunis expressed appreciation for Trump’s role in securing the release of Edan Alexander, a dual U.S.-Israeli citizen who was freed Monday after direct negotiations between the U.S. and Hamas, as well as Trump’s willingness to apply “pressure” on the group. Akunis asserted that it was President Joe Biden’s administration that exerted pressure on Israel, a tactic he called “a huge mistake.”

The Israeli diplomat was particularly critical of Biden’s decision last year to withhold certain weapons from the Israel Defense Forces over human rights concerns, and he was especially grateful for Trump’s crackdown against pro-Palestinian protests at university campuses.

“We appreciate the new administration’s support,” Akunis said.

Daniel Kurtzer, who previously served as U.S. ambassador to Egypt and Israel under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, also dismissed reports that Trump had cut contact with Netanyahu. He said that “there is no serious schism between them–yet.”

At the same time, the former U.S. diplomat argued that “several U.S. actions in recent days—e.g., the ceasefire with the Houthis that did not include Houthi attacks against Israel, and reports that the U.S. might not demand full dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear program—have surprised Netanyahu and the Israelis.”

Now, Kurtzer said, a new test will manifest from Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, a country with which the Biden administration had sought to strike a deal for diplomatic relations with Israel in exchange for an array of U.S. agreements, including ramped up defense ties and support for developing a civil nuclear program.

“Netanyahu is well familiar with Trump’s penchant for making policy and policy statements off the seat of his pants, without a strategy,” Kurtzer, who is now a professor at Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs, said. “The Israelis will be watching Trump’s Gulf visit to see if elements of the relationship go further off the rails, e.g., if Trump cuts a deal with the Saudis on civil nuclear power without Saudi normalization with Israel.”

While Kurtzer felt there was little risk of a total falling out, he did not preclude a cooler dynamic should the two men continue to diverge.

“Trump is probably annoyed that Netanyahu restarted the war in Gaza and is threatening further escalation,” Kurtzer said. “This runs counter to Trump’s boast that he would bring the war to an end immediately upon taking office.

“U.S. demands on humanitarian assistance in Gaza also appear to be surfacing without full coordination with Israel,” he continued. “A crisis in relations is highly unlikely, but further distancing between the two is possible.”

Pedestrians walk past a sign with portraits of U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, in central Jerusalem on May 7. Pedestrians walk past a sign with portraits of U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, in central Jerusalem on May 7. AHMAD GHARABLI/AFP/Getty Images

‘America First’ Comes to Israel

Such distancing would mark a stark contrast to the warm relationship Trump and Netanyahu once enjoyed, even if signals of dissonance had appeared long before.

When Trump won a decisive election in November, Netanyahu was the first to extend congratulations over what he referred to as “history’s greatest comeback.” The victory came as Biden struggled to advance negotiations toward a ceasefire in Gaza.

A second Trump presidency was widely seen as a win for the Israeli premier, who scored a string of key achievements during the U.S. leader’s first time in office.

These include securing U.S. recognition of the disputed city of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and Syria’s occupied Golan Heights as Israeli territory. The crowning success was marked by the 2020 Abraham Accords that ultimately resulted in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco establishing diplomatic ties with Israel.

But when Biden successfully defeated Trump in a heated election later that same year, Trump was reportedly livid at Netanyahu’s decision to congratulate the incoming U.S. leader despite Trump still contesting the vote.

And from early on in his third quest to obtain the presidency, Trump made clear that he sought a new legacy-making accomplishment in the Middle East for his second nonconsecutive term: peace. Having criticized Netanyahu for failing to intercept the Hamas-led attack that sparked the war in Gaza in October 2023, Trump repeatedly called on the Israeli premier to put an end to the conflict before he entered office.

Trump’s trusted Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, is widely credited with applying the necessary pressure to get Israel and Hamas to sign a temporary truce in line with Biden’s three-stage plan. In February, the president went even further in outlining a vision for the resettlement of Palestinians outside of Gaza in order to develop the war-torn territory into a “Riviera of the Middle East.”

The plan won a ringing endorsement from Netanyahu during his first visit of Trump’s presidency. But by his second trip in April, Trump’s dream appeared to be on hold as Israel resumed attacks in Gaza, and the two men indicated a lack of alignment on a number of issues, including how to proceed on nuclear talks with Tehran.

A protest calling for action to secure the release of Israeli hostages held captive since October 7, outside the Israeli Defence Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv on December 21, 2024. A protest calling for action to secure the release of Israeli hostages held captive since October 7, outside the Israeli Defence Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv on December 21, 2024. JACK GUEZ/AFP/Getty

Meanwhile, members of Trump’s Cabinet dedicated to overseeing his “America First” approach have increasingly prevailed over hawkish voices.

“President Trump is focused on America First, has limited concern for the views of allies, and wants to advance his agenda with no constraints or delays,” Daniel Shapiro, who served as U.S. ambassador to Israel under former President Barack Obama and later as Biden’s special liaison to Israel on Iran, told Newsweek.

“The more isolationist parts of his administration are gaining strength, leading to real divisions with Israel over Iran nuclear talks and the campaign to counter Houthi aggression,” Shapiro, currently a fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, said. “He wants to limit U.S. military engagement in the Middle East, while Israel believes there is still a need and opportunity to strike the Houthis and hold Iran’s nuclear program at risk.”

If Trump is indeed shifting on Israel, his mindset may be reflective of broader trends taking place in nationwide perceptions of the ally among Americans of all backgrounds.

A Pew Research Center survey published last month showed that unfavorable views of Israel in the U.S. had risen from 42 percent to 53 percent from 2022 to 2025. While Democrats still possess the least favorable views at 69 percent, up from 53 percent three years ago, unfavorable Republican views of Israel have climbed from 27 percent to 37 percent in that time, with roughly half of Republicans ages 18 to 49 now holding a negative opinion.

Still, Shapiro argued that it would be a “big mistake” for Trump to keep Israel in the dark on major decisions—and vice versa—as “there should be a mutual policy of no surprises.”

Israelis gather to watch a live broadcast of Israeli-American soldier Edan Alexander being released from Hamas captivity in Gaza after direct U.S.-Hamas talks, in Tel Aviv, on May 12. Israelis gather to watch a live broadcast of Israeli-American soldier Edan Alexander being released from Hamas captivity in Gaza after direct U.S.-Hamas talks, in Tel Aviv, on May 12. Oded Balilty/AP

Netanyahu’s Tough Spot

Any major break in the U.S.-Israel relationship, however unlikely, would come at a difficult time for Netanyahu.

While widely victorious on the battlefield, having substantially degraded the capabilities of Hamas and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement, his ruling coalition remains afloat through alliances with far-right parties promoting open-ended war goals. Even limited ceasefire proposals have ignited threats of resignation from key ultranationalists like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Open clashes have also erupted at the highest levels of the Israeli government, pitting Netanyahu against his attorney general and chief of the Shin Bet intelligence service as well as between Ben-Gvir and Israel’s chief of police. On the streets, growing numbers of Israelis, including the families of hostages held by Hamas, call for the government to do more to release their loved ones, even if it means ending the war.

Against this backdrop, Shapiro argued that Netanyahu “cannot challenge [Trump] the way he did Presidents Obama and Biden by going to Congress or the opposition party to build pressure, so his options to push back are limited.”

“But he is also constrained by his far-right coalition partners, who would never allow him to end the war or to make gestures to the Palestinians that could help advance Israeli-Saudi normalization,” Shapiro said. “The only thing that will change this dynamic is an Israeli election which could bring about a new prime minister or a new coalition with centrist parties, not bound to the far-right extremes.”

Lipner, too, noted how “political alignments in both the United States and Israel have dealt Netanyahu a tough hand.”

“Trump’s uncontested grip on the levers of American power have constricted the maneuverability of the prime minister, who has previously tried—often, successfully—to enlist sympathetic voices in the administration, Congress and among the public to plead Israel’s case,” Lipner said. “Netanyahu’s domestic wiggle room has been neutralized similarly by a hardline coalition whose uncompromising positions offer little latitude to meet Trump’s expectations.”

Even for Netanyahu, who has become Israel’s longest serving premier over the course of three non-consecutive terms through unmatched political prowess, the situation presents a formidable set of challenges.

U.S. President Donald Trump greets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he arrives at the White House on April 07, 2025 in Washington, D.C. U.S. President Donald Trump greets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he arrives at the White House on April 07, 2025 in Washington, D.C. Alex Wong/Getty

Shira Efron, director of research at the Israel Policy Forum and a special adviser to the Israeli Defense Ministry, felt it would be “hard to find” a path toward a grand bargain that would include Israeli-Palestinian peace and Israeli-Saudi normalization.

With “the zone of possible cooperation” narrow, she argued that the alternative to watch for would be “the zone of possible coercion.”

“Will Trump be interested in forcing Israel’s hand to accept a full ceasefire? I am not sure,” Efron said. “Can Netanyahu choose the latter course—yes, but then he loses his coalition, which he is unwilling to risk for now.”

“Clearly, Trump’s unique style, unexpected behavior, his approval ratings in Israel, and after the precedent of the Zelensky ‘treatment,’ Netanyahu has far less tools to protest the Trump administration’s actions that concern Israel,” she added.

Still, Efron noted that support for Israel remains a major component of U.S. foreign policy, and a belief deeply held by a number of influential figures, including those within Trump’s administration. As such, she was skeptical that Trump would go too far in alienating Netanyahu as he counted on drumming up domestic support for potential deals with Iran and Saudi Arabia, both of which remain controversial among his support base.

“Rather than a real rift here—although time will tell—I think we have clocks that are not synchronized, with Trump being impatient and wanting to cut deals quickly and Netanyahu, in his usual playbook, playing for time,” Efron said. “The president, seeing his America First interests, is not going to wait for Netanyahu.”

Thus far, she said, Trump’s actions indicate “that the president really puts America first.”

Correction 5/16/25, 1:12 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with a correction to Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative.

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On Friday, a popular Hebrew X account called “News From a Year Ago” tweeted a short video of Donald Trump, then running for U.S. president, from May 2024.

“If any Jewish person voted for Joe Biden, they should be ashamed of themselves,” Trump said in the video. “He’s totally abandoned Israel and nobody can believe it.”

One year later, if there’s a president many Israelis are viewing with disbelief, it’s Trump himself. Trump — who campaigned on his record of good relations with Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — has spent the past month building out a vision for U.S. policy in the Middle East that appears to be sidelining the country and its leader.

His recent steps have sparked concern from Israelis across the political spectrum — as well as American Jews who, regardless of their opinion of Trump or Netanyahu, have supported a close U.S.-Israel relationship. And they come at a time when Israel has been under increasing criticism from other nations that were once close allies.

“Trump is signaling to Netanyahu, ’Honey, I’ve had enough of you,’” Israeli commentator Dana Fahn Luzon said on a TV debate this week over Trump’s recent deal with the Houthi terror group, which has been firing missiles at Israel. “That he didn’t update us, that he couldn’t say it … He doesn’t take Netanyahu into account.”

In his first term, Trump granted the Israeli government’s wish-list — moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, withdrawing from the Iran nuclear agreement, brokering normalization deals with Arab states and more. Ahead of the 2024 election, nearly two-thirds of Israelis said they preferred Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris.

The opening weeks of his second term also drew Israeli cheers: Trump brokered a deal to release dozens of Israeli hostages from Gaza without committing Israel to end the war — then said the U.S. would take over the territory, which he hoped to largely empty of Palestinians.

But a shift soon began to emerge, and has accelerated in recent weeks:

In March, a U.S. negotiator entered direct talks with Hamas. The talks quickly ended after they did not achieve their intended goal, a hostage release, but they were unprecedented.

On April 7, as Netanyahu traveled to the White House in what he said was a bid to remove U.S. tariffs on Israeli imports, Trump announced they would remain for the time being.

During the White House visit, Trump announced that the United States would conduct direct negotiations with Iran, Israel’s chief adversary and Netanyahu’s bete noire.

Some reports from those negotiations indicate that they may result in something similar to the Obama-era Iran deal, which Netanyahu loathed.

Weeks later, Axios reported that on his first foreign trip next week, Trump hoped to hold a summit with Arab states — and not Israel, which he currently has no plans to visit.

Then, on May 6, Trump announced that the United States and the Houthi terror group in Yemen had reached a truce — without requiring the Houthis to stop attacking Israel. Israeli officials were reportedly surprised by the deal, and Netanyahu vowed to “defend ourselves alone.”

Trump has also reportedly pressured Israel to let aid into Gaza, following a two-month stoppage.

On Thursday, Reuters reported that Trump was no longer demanding that Saudi Arabia recognize Israel as part of a broader pact with the United States — leaving a deal that would have been Netanyahu’s holy grail by the wayside.

Finally, on Friday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth scrapped his planned Israel trip to instead accompany Trump on his Middle East sojourn.

Critics and supporters of Netanyahu and Trump alike are noticing. On Thursday, the front page of Yediot Aharonot, an Israeli daily seen as critical of Netanyahu, blared that Trump had a “policy of surprises” when it came to Israel. Below it was a political cartoon showing Trump cooking up a soup for Netanyahu, who sits, with a shocked expression, at a restaurant table behind the president.

“The Americans are advancing a deal with the Saudis, advancing a deal with Iran, advancing a new regional outline… but the Americans don’t take Netanyahu or Israel into account,” tweeted Yair Golan, head of an Israeli left-wing party. “President Trump, whom Netanyahu saw as a strategic partner for his survival, understands today that Netanyahu isn’t an asset but a liability.”

Netanyahu’s allies have also expressed concerns — or even taken a threatening tone. Nissim Vaturi, a lawmaker in Netanyahu’s Likud Party, tweeted that Trump “is an important friend of Israel. He should remember that he was elected to the presidency riding on the wings of support for Israel.” He later deleted the tweet.

Other voices are framing Trump’s actions as a bane not just for Netanyahu but for Israel. Avraham Ben-Tzvi, a scholar of U.S.-Israel relations and columnist for the right-leaning daily Israel Hayom, pointed to a “bitterness” toward Israel in Washington, D.C.

“The main expression of this bitterness is the sidelining of Israel, and an American effort to advance along routes that bypass Jerusalem,” he wrote Wednesday, asking “whether a new Middle East order is indeed forming before our eyes, without Israel as an official partner.”

In the United States, Halie Soifer, head of the Jewish Democratic Council of America, wrote Friday that the trend shows what she and other critics of Trump have long warned: “Despite the false perception that Trump is an ally of Israel, it has become increasingly clear that Trump’s ‘America First’ foreign policy does not prioritize Israel.”

The apparent shift in Trump’s approach may be more consistent than it seems, according to Michael Koplow, chief policy officer of the Israel Policy Forum. Using an analogy from “The Godfather,” Koplow wrote that Trump may be telling Israel, essentially, that if it wants to keep fighting in Gaza, it can. But in that case, Trump will distance himself from Israel and does not want to be involved in its plans.

“Trump will give Israel all of the support it wants, provided that it doesn’t cost too much and doesn’t require tradeoffs elsewhere,” wrote Koplow. “Trump is not going to Israel because he doesn’t see any upside to going there and does not want to be dragged into Netanyahu’s Gaza mess.”

The seemingly fading prospects of Saudi-Israeli normalization are especially notable because it appeared to be a rare area of consensus: Trump, Biden, Netanyahu and centrist Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid had all voiced support for an Israel-Saudi Arabia agreement.

Thomas Friedman, the New York Times columnist and frequent Trump and Netanyahu critic who reported on prospects for an Israel-Saudi deal under Biden prior to Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack, placed the blame on Netanyahu — and congratulated Trump. The title of his column Friday, written as a letter to Trump, was “This Israeli Government Is Not Our Ally.”

“Netanyahu put his personal interests ahead of Israel’s and America’s,” Friedman wrote, dooming an Israeli-Saudi accord that would have “opened the whole Muslim world to Israeli tourists, investors and innovators, eased tensions between Jews and Muslims the world over and consolidated U.S. advantages in the Middle East.”

He continued, “After Netanyahu’s spinning everyone for two years, both the Americans and Saudis have reportedly decided to give up on Israel’s involvement in the deal — a true loss for both Israelis and the Jewish people.”

Trump’s actions have sparked some pushback on Capitol Hill. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, a staunch Israel supporter and Trump ally, has said he will only support a deal with Iran that dismantles its nuclear program, and has continued to call for normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

A bipartisan group of lawmakers wrote Trump a letter “to express our serious concern over the agreement reached on May 6 with the Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, which halts U.S. strikes against Houthi targets without addressing the threat to Israel.”

But even within Trump’s own party, support for Israel is showing signs of slipping. A recent poll by the Arab American Institute found that nearly half of Republican respondents agree Trump should place greater pressure on Israel to end its occupation and allow a Palestinian state.

Many of Trump’s plans have yet to be finalized. But the Israeli-American writer Sarah Tuttle-Singer posted to Facebook that whatever happens in the end, Trump has engaged in “a dizzying turn of whiplash diplomacy” to Israel’s detriment.

“Trump courts deals with our enemies,” she wrote. “He negotiates with Iran, signs understandings with the Houthis, and redraws lines in the region with Israel conspicuously left out of the room.”

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Americans used to be steadfast in their support for Israel. Those days are gone

5 May 2025 Share Save Tom Bateman • tombateman US State Department correspondent Luke Mintz • lukemintz BBC News Giles Edwards • gilesedwards BBC News Share Save

BBC

I ran from the White House briefing room, past the portico entrance of the West Wing to our camera position on the lawn, and flung on an ear piece connecting me to the studio. A moment later the presenter asked me about the comments we had just heard live from US President Donald Trump. I said we were seeing a fundamental shift in a United States’ policy position after decades of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It was February this year, and Trump had just held talks with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – the first foreign leader since Trump’s inauguration to be invited to the White House. The US president vowed that his country would take control of the Gaza Strip, having earlier pledged the territory would also be “cleaned out” and emptied of its Palestinian population. Trump was grabbing the world’s attention with a proposal that hardened his administration’s support for Israel and also upended international norms, flying in the face of international law. It marked an apex of the current Republican Party’s relationship with Israel – sometimes described as support “at all costs”.

Getty Images The alliance between the US and Israel has been thrust into the international spotlight since the Hamas attacks on 7 October 2023 and Israel’s military response

The alliance between the two countries had been thrust into the international spotlight after the Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023 and Israel’s offensive in Gaza that followed. During that war, the administration of President Joe Biden sent some $18bn (£13.5bn) worth of weapons to Israel, maintaining unprecedented levels of US backing. The period was marked by intensifying protests in the US, with many of those protesting being traditional Democrat leaning voters. The fallout became the focus of a bitter culture war centring on American attitudes towards Israel and the Palestinians. I covered demonstrations in which protesters repeatedly labelled Biden “Genocide Joe” – an accusation he always rejected. At the time Donald Trump branded the protesters “radical-left lunatics” and the Trump administration is now targeting for deportation hundreds of foreign students who it accuses of antisemitism or support for Hamas, a move being vigorously challenged in the courts. But as a Democrat who could otherwise have expected the vote of many of those upset over his support for Israel that support was politically costly for Biden in a way not experienced by previous presidents or, indeed, Trump. One of Biden’s key decision makers over relations with Israel still wrestles with the decisions they took. “My first reaction is just, I understand that this has evoked incredibly passionate feelings for Arab Americans, for non-Arab Americans, Jewish Americans,” says Jake Sullivan, Biden’s former national security adviser. “There were two competing considerations: one was wanting to curb Israel’s excesses, both with respect to civilian casualties and the flow of humanitarian assistance. The other was […] wanting to make sure that we were not cutting Israel off from the capabilities it needed to confront its enemies on multiple different fronts.” He added: “The United States stood behind Israel materially, morally, and in every other way in those days following October 7th.”

But opinion polls suggest support for Israel among the American public is dwindling. A Gallup survey taken in March this year found only 46% of Americans expressed support for Israel (the lowest level in 25 years of Gallup’s annual tracking) while 33% now said they sympathised with the Palestinians – the highest ever reading of that measure. Other polls have found similar results. Surveys – with all their limitations – suggest the swing is largely among Democrats and the young, although not exclusively. Between 2022 and 2025, the Pew Research Center found that the proportion of Republicans who said they had unfavourable views of Israel rose from 27% to 37% (younger Republicans, aged under 49, drove most of that change). The US has long been Israel’s most powerful ally – ever since May 1948, when America was the first country to recognise the nascent State of Israel. But while US support for Israel is extremely likely to continue long-term, these swings in sentiment raise questions over the practical extent and policy limits of the US’s ironclad backing and whether the shifting sands of public opinion will eventually feed through to Washington, with real-world policy impacts.

An Oval Office argument

To many, the close relationship between the US and Israel seems like a permanent, unshakeable part of the geopolitical infrastructure. But it wasn’t always guaranteed – and at the very beginning largely came down to one man. In early 1948, US President Harry S Truman had to decide on his approach to Palestine. The country was in the grip of sectarian bloodshed between Jews and Arab Palestinians after three decades of colonial rule by Britain, which had announced its intention to pull out. Truman was deeply moved by the plight of Jewish survivors of the Holocaust stranded in displaced persons camps in Europe. In New York City, a young Francine Klagsbrun, who would later become an academic and historian of Israeli prime minister Golda Meir, watched her parents praying for a Jewish homeland.

Getty Images The US president vowed that his country would take control of the Gaza Strip

“I grew up in a very Jewish home and a very Zionist home also,” she explains. “So my older brother and I would go out and collect money to try to get England to open the doors. My brother would go on the subway trains, all the doors open on the train and he’d shout ‘open, open, open the doors to Palestine’,” she recalls. Truman’s administration was deeply divided over whether to back a Jewish state. The CIA and the Department of State cautioned against recognising a Jewish state. They feared a bloody conflict with Arab countries that might draw in the US, risking Cold War escalation with the Soviets. Two days before Britain was due to pull out of Palestine, an explosive row took place in the Oval Office. Truman’s domestic advisor Clark Clifford argued in favour of recognising a Jewish state. On the other side of the debate was Secretary of State George Marshall, a World War Two general whom Truman viewed as “the greatest living American”. The man Truman admired so much was vigorously opposed to the president immediately recognising a Jewish state because of his fears about a regional war – and even went as far as telling Truman he would not vote for him in the coming presidential election if he backed recognition.

Getty Images The US has been Israel’s strongest ally since 1948, when it became the first country to recognise the newly declared state

But despite the moment of extraordinary tension, Truman immediately recognised the State of Israel when it was declared two days later by David Ben-Gurion, the country’s first prime minister. The historian Rashid Khalidi, a New York-born Palestinian whose family members were expelled from Jerusalem by the British in the 1930s, says the US and Israel were fused together in part by shared cultural connections. From 1948 onwards, he says, the Palestinians had a critical diplomatic disadvantage in the US, with their claim to national self-determination sidelined in an unequal contest.

Getty Images President Harry S. Truman immediately recognised the State of Israel when it was declared by David Ben-Gurion, Israel’s first prime minister.

“On the one side, you had the Zionist movement led by people whom are European and American by origin… The Arabs had nothing similar,” he says. “[The Arabs] weren’t familiar with the societies, the cultures, the political leaderships of the countries that decided the fate of Palestine. How could you speak to American public opinion if you had no idea what America is like?” says Khalidi. Popular culture played its role too – notably the 1958 novel and subsequent blockbuster film Exodus by the author Leon Uris. It retold the story of Israel’s establishment to mass audiences of the 1960s, the movie version creating a heavily Americanised portrayal of pioneers in a new land.

Getty Images Former Israeli PM Ehud Olmert says the 1967 war was a turning point, solidifying America’s deep military and political support for Israel

Ehud Olmert, who at the time was a political activist but would later become Israeli prime minister, points to the war of 1967 as the moment when America’s support for Israel became the profound alliance that it is today. That was the war in which Israel, after weeks of escalating fears of invasion by its neighbours, defeated the Arab countries in six days, effectively tripling the size of its territory, and launching its military occupation over (at that time) more than a million stateless Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. “For the first time, the United States understood the importance and the significance of Israel as a major military and political power in the Middle East, and since then everything has changed in the basic relations within our two countries,” he says.

Indispensable relations

Over the years, Israel became the biggest recipient of US foreign military aid on Earth. Strong American diplomatic support, particularly at the United Nations, has been a key element of the alliance; while successive US presidents have also sought to broker peace between Israel and its Arab neighbours. But in recent years it has been far from a straightforward relationship. When I spoke to Jake Sullivan, I put to him the issue of Arab Americans in the state of Michigan who boycotted Biden and his successor candidate Kamala Harris over the extent of their support for Israel during the Gaza conflict, voting instead for Trump. He rejected the idea that Biden lost the state because of this support. But that backing still prompted a marked backlash within a section of the American public. A Pew Research Center survey taken in March this year found that 53% of Americans expressed an unfavourable opinion of Israel, an 11 point increase since the last time the survey was taken in 2022.

A fraying special relationship?

Currently, these shifts in public opinion haven’t yet prompted a major change in US foreign policy. Whilst some ordinary US voters are turning away from Israel, on Capitol Hill elected politicians from both parties are still mostly keen to talk up the importance of a strong alliance with Israel. Some think that a sustained, long-term shift in public opinion might eventually lead to reduced real-world support for the country – with weaker diplomatic ties and reduced military aid. This issue is felt particularly sharply by some inside Israel. Several months before 7 October, the former Israeli general and head of the Military Intelligence Directorate, Tamir Hayman, warned of cracks forming between his country and the United States, in part because of what he described as the slow movement of American Jews away from Zionism. Israel’s political shift in favour of the national-religious right has played a key part in this. From early 2023, Israel was gripped by an unprecedented wave of protests among Jewish Israelis against Netanyahu’s judicial reforms, with many arguing he was moving the country towards theocracy – a claim he always rejected. Some in the US who had always felt a deep sense of connection with Israel were watching with growing concern.

Getty Images Jake Sullivan says he continues to wrestle with the question of whether the Biden administration could have done anything differently after 7 October.

In March this year, the Institute for National Security Studies, a leading Tel Aviv-based think tank led by Hayman, published a paper arguing that US public opinion had entered the “danger zone”, as far as support for Israel was concerned. “The dangers of diminished US support, particularly as it reflects long-term and deeply rooted trends, cannot be overstated,” wrote the paper’s author, Theodore Sasson. “Israel needs the support of the global superpower for the foreseeable future,”. That support at the policy level has only strengthened over the decades, but it is important to note that historic American opinion polling shows public opinion has ebbed and flowed before. Today, Dennis Ross, who helped negotiate the Oslo accords with President Bill Clinton, says American opinion on Israel has become increasingly tied to sharp political divisions in the US. “Trump is viewed very negatively by most Democrats – the latest polls show over 90 percent,” Ross says. “There’s potential for Trumpian support for Israel to feed a dynamic here that, at least among Democrats, increases criticism of Israel.” But he expects that Washington’s support for Israel – in the form of military aid and diplomatic ties – will continue. And he thinks if Israeli voters eject their prime minister and replace him with a more centrist government, one that may reverse some of the disquiet in the US. A general election must be held in Israel before late October next year. Under such a new Israeli government, Ross argues, “there won’t be the same impulse towards creating de-facto annexation of the West Bank. There’ll be much more outreach to the Democratic Party and the Democratic Party officials.”

Getty Images Dennis Ross says most Democrats have a very negative view of Trump, with recent polls showing more than 90% dislike him

Those who see a fraying relationship are paying particularly close attention to the views of younger Americans – a group that has shown the most marked shift in opinion since 7 October. As the ‘TikTok generation’, many young Americans get their news about the war from social media and the high civilian death toll from Israel’s offensive in Gaza appears to have driven the declining support among young Democrats and liberals in America. Last year, 33 percent of Americans under 30 said their sympathies lie entirely or mostly with the Palestinian people, versus 14 percent who said the same about Israelis, according to a Pew Research poll published last month. Older Americans were more likely to sympathise with the Israelis. Karin Von Hippel, chair of the Arden Defence and Security Practice and a former official in the US State Department, agrees there is a demographic divide among Americans on the topic of Israel – one that even extends to Congress. “Younger Congress men and women are less knee jerk, reactively supporting Israel,” she says. “And I think younger Americans, including Jewish Americans, are less supportive of Israel than their parents were.”

Getty Images Many young Americans are said to get their news about the Gaza war from social media

But she is sceptical of the idea that this might lead to a serious change at the policy level. Despite changing opinions among the party’s base, she says, many of the most prominent Democrats who might run for President in 2028 are “classically supportive of Israel”. She names Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan, and Pete Buttigieg, the former Transportation Secretary, as examples. And what about Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the Instagram-famous congresswoman who is a long-standing supporter of Palestinian rights? Hippel responds bluntly: “I don’t think an Ocasio-Cortez type can win right now.” In the weeks after February’s Trump-Netanyahu press conference at the White House, I asked Jake Sullivan where he thought the US-Israel relationship was going. He argued that both countries were dealing with internal threats to their democratic institutions that would define their character and their relationship. “I think it’s almost less of a foreign policy question than it is a domestic policy question in these two countries – whither America and whither Israel?” he says. “The answer to those two questions will tell you where does the US-Israel relationship go five, ten, fifteen years from now.”