9:51 America/New York Thursday, June 19

Report for Thursday, June 19, 2025 Trump approves attack plans for Iran but hasn’t given approval to launch

Potential U.S. involvement in Israel- Iran war set off a scramble to protect Americans abroad

Ukraine emerges with little from the G7 summit in Canada

Ukraine must accept Moscow’s demands or ‘surrender,’ Russia’s ambassador to UK says

Syria completes first global SWIFT transfer since war, governor says

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES What Would It Take to End the Regime in Iran? Regime change in Iran remains highly unlikely without a “perfect storm,” analysts say, involving mass defections from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), sustained nationwide protests, and a charismatic opposition leader. Despite public dissatisfaction, Tehran’s powerful security apparatus and historical resilience have crushed past revolts, such as the 2009 Green Movement and the 2019 fuel protests. As Israel escalates its bombing campaign and U.S. President Trump calls for Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” internal divisions deepen—but not enough to topple the regime. Analysts stress that Iran’s leadership remains united and repressive. Targeted messaging, economic collapse, and support for civic rather than military institutions may help, but fear, brain drain, and fragmented opposition limit prospects. The regime could fall if U.S.-Israeli pressure triggers a war and cracks the IRGC loyalty. Otherwise, it’s likely to survive—more repressive and hostile—despite mounting public frustration and youth disillusionment. The Cipher Brief Opinion: The Rampant Leadership Corruption Plaguing China and Russia. Ambassador Joseph DeTrani highlights the systemic corruption at the highest levels of leadership in both China and Russia. Drawing from a March Office of the Director of National Intelligence report, DeTrani describes how Chinese President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign conceals massive wealth accumulation by Xi and other Chinese Communist Party elites, with assets stashed abroad. Similarly, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his close circle, including Sergei Shoigu and Dmitry Medvedev, have amassed fortunes through opaque networks, some of which the late Alexei Navalny documented. DeTrani notes that while both governments remove corrupt low-level officials, top leaders remain untouched. He warns that such entrenched corruption erodes public trust and legitimacy, and urges the U.S.—as a global model of democratic values—to uphold integrity and transparency. Quoting Abraham Lincoln, DeTrani asserts that ultimately, people will demand accountability from those in power. The Cipher Brief Opinion: Amid Crisis, A Lesser-Told Story of US-Iran Similarities Holds Some Hope. Dr. Jerry Laurienti, a former senior intelligence service officer and national security expert, argues that despite political hostility, Americans and Iranians share foundational traits—revolutionary spirit, entrepreneurial drive, and bureaucratic governance—that could serve as bridges in a post-regime Iran. Reflecting on a dinner with a senior Iraqi officer, Laurienti recounts how these similarities foster hope for future U.S.-Iran rapprochement. If Iran’s regime collapses, Washington should leverage these affinities through three vectors: grassroots Iranian outreach, the politically active Iranian-American diaspora, and support from allies like the UK, France, Turkey, and Canada. While regime change carries risks, Laurienti suggests U.S. policymakers prepare for unexpected opportunities—particularly among Iran’s youth—to build a democratic and friendlier Iran. He even proposes soft power diplomacy, such as cultural gestures, to support normalization. Recognizing shared cultural and political DNA could transform a chaotic transition into a strategic realignment. Dr. Jerry Laurienti, a former senior intelligence service officer and national security expert, argues that despite political hostility, Americans and Iranians share foundational traits—revolutionary spirit, entrepreneurial drive, and bureaucratic governance—that could serve as bridges in a post-regime Iran. Reflecting on a dinner with a senior Iraqi officer, Laurienti recounts how these similarities foster hope for future U.S.-Iran rapprochement. If Iran’s regime collapses, Washington should leverage these affinities through three vectors: grassroots Iranian outreach, the politically active Iranian-American diaspora, and support from allies like the UK, France, Turkey, and Canada. While regime change carries risks, Laurienti suggests U.S. policymakers prepare for unexpected opportunities—particularly among Iran’s youth—to build a democratic and friendlier Iran. He even proposes soft power diplomacy, such as cultural gestures, to support normalization. Recognizing shared cultural and political DNA could transform a chaotic transition into a strategic realignment. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS Trump’s Iran threats set off a scramble to protect Americans abroad. The U.S. is rapidly deploying military assets and enhancing diplomatic security worldwide to protect Americans, while President Donald Trump considers deeper involvement in the conflict. Trump has reportedly approved U.S. military plans for strikes against Iran but has not yet given the green light, despite Iran’s Supreme Leader warning of “irreparable damage.” The Pentagon has sent aircraft carriers, destroyers, fighter jets, and refueling planes to the region, and U.S. embassies are evacuating citizens and tightening security protocols. Intelligence officials warn that Iran may activate global terror cells or pursue assassinations in retaliation, particularly against former U.S. officials involved in the 2020 killing of Qassem Soleimani. Though weakened, Iran retains asymmetric warfare capabilities, including cyberattacks, drone strikes, and proxy actions. Officials fear that retaliation, including against soft power symbols or American civilians, could unfold years later. The situation remains volatile, with regional allies and U.S. personnel bracing for further escalation. Politico

Ghosts of Iraq War lurk behind Trump and Gabbard split . As President Trump weighs whether to join Israel’s military campaign against Iran, a key question is how close the Islamic Republic is to developing a nuclear weapon. Trump dismissed testimony from his own intelligence chief, Tulsi Gabbard, who said Iran has not resumed its suspended nuclear weapons program, despite a growing uranium stockpile. Gabbard, a former Democrat turned Trump ally, insists she and Trump share concerns. However, the president’s remarks suggest that Iran hawks may be gaining influence in the White House. The split reflects a broader divide in the “America First” movement, with non-interventionists warning of another Iraq-style blunder. Critics say the threat is being exaggerated to justify war. Trump’s decision echoes the Bush administration’s flawed WMD claims, presented before the international community ahead of invading Iraq, raising fears of repeating past foreign policy mistakes. BBC Trump hosts Pakistani army chief, disagrees with India over India-Pakistan war mediation . U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, at the White House on Wednesday, without any accompanying Pakistani civilian officials. The meeting marked a significant shift in U.S.-Pakistan relations and risked straining ties with India, especially after Trump claimed he helped stop last month’s conflict between India and Pakistan—an assertion New Delhi strongly denies. Trump praised both Munir and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, saying their decisions prevented a potential nuclear war. Munir and Trump reportedly discussed trade, Iran, and cryptocurrency, with the Pakistani military framing the meeting as a strategic boost to bilateral ties. Trump’s claims of U.S. mediation have been rejected by India, which insists the ceasefire occurred through direct military dialogue with Islamabad. Reuters Economic Times Rural Oklahoma strives to become American hub for critical minerals processing. Oklahoma is emerging as an unlikely hub for U.S. critical minerals processing, led by startup Westwin Elements’ nickel refinery—currently the nation’s only such facility. Despite lacking local mineral deposits and facing challenges such as poor educational rankings and limited coastal access, the state is attracting investment through tax incentives, a strong energy workforce, and streamlined regulation. Several facilities are under development, including lithium refineries, battery recycling centers, and rare earth magnet production, with companies like Stardust Power, USA Rare Earth, and Green Li-ion leading the charge. Governor Kevin Stitt is actively courting green tech industries to reduce U.S. dependence on Chinese mineral supply chains. Though setbacks like EV startup Canoo’s bankruptcy and education concerns persist, investors see promise in Oklahoma’s infrastructure and business climate. Westwin aims to supply 10% of U.S. nickel needs by 2030 and is in talks with the Pentagon, while legislation may soon further support domestic rare earth production. Reuters Federal hate crime charge against Boulder Molotov suspect advances . A federal judge in Denver has ruled there is probable cause to proceed with a hate crime charge against Mohamed Sabry Soliman, who allegedly threw Molotov cocktails at a pro-Israel gathering in Boulder while shouting “Free Palestine” earlier this month. Soliman reportedly told investigators he wanted to “kill all Zionist people.” The case now hinges on whether Zionism qualifies as a national origin under federal hate crime law or is merely a political ideology. Attacks based solely on political beliefs do not meet the legal standard for a hate crime. Prosecutors argue Soliman targeted victims based on their perceived support for Israel, pointing to his comments and the presence of Israeli flags. The defense contends Soliman’s actions were politically, not ethnically, motivated. Soliman faces 118 state charges and remains jailed on a $10 million bond. A federal hearing is set for June 27, and the outcome could set a national legal precedent. Axios Washington Post Trump administration scales up social media vetting for foreign students . The U.S. State Department has introduced stricter guidelines for student visa applicants, requiring them to make their social media profiles public as part of a heightened national security review. Consular officers will now examine applicants’ online activity for any signs of hostility toward the U.S., and failure to comply may raise red flags during the visa process. This move intensifies already rigorous requirements for international students, who must prove academic qualifications, financial support, and intent to return home after their studies. The directive follows Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s May suspension of student visa interviews and comes amid the Trump administration’s broader immigration crackdown, which has affected campuses nationwide. Bloomberg Washington Post Reuters BBC Associated Press Haiti’s capital in the dark after residents storm hydroelectric plant. Port-au-Prince, Haiti was plunged into darkness on Wednesday after residents of Mirebalais, a town north of the capital, stormed a hydroelectric plant, protesting government inaction amid escalating gang violence. During the incident, residents reportedly toppled a transmission tower. This comes in the wake of earlier clashes between gangs and security forces in Mirebalais, with criminal groups now controlling much of the country. Over 1.3 million people have been displaced in just six months, according to the U.N. This marks the second time the plant has been forcibly shut down in recent months, despite prior government promises to prevent such disruptions. Public frustration is mounting as Haiti’s transitional council struggles to restore stability following the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Meanwhile, a Kenya-led, U.N.-backed security mission has yet to gain traction. Reuters US sanctions leadership of Mexico’s Jalisco cartel. The Trump administration has slapped economic sanctions on five senior leaders of Mexico’s Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), citing their roles in drug trafficking, violent crimes, and killings. The sanctions freeze any U.S.-linked assets and bar Americans from conducting business with them. Among those targeted is cartel leader Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera, already wanted with a $15 million U.S. bounty on his capture. Two others—Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan and Ricardo Ruiz Velasco—are tied to ongoing investigations, including a cartel training site linked to disappearances and the live-streamed murder of influencer Valeria Márquez. The U.S. also recently designated CJNG as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the sanctions aim to weaken the cartel’s ability to traffic fentanyl and carry out violence. The move follows similar actions in May targeting the cartel’s fuel theft network. Associated Press Ex-leader Bolsonaro was main beneficiary in illicit surveillance scheme, Brazil police allege . A Brazilian federal police report released on Wednesday alleges that former President Jair Bolsonaro was the key beneficiary of an illegal surveillance scheme run by the country’s intelligence agency, ABIN, during his presidency. The report claims ABIN was used to spy on political opponents, attack state institutions, and spread disinformation. While over 30 individuals were formally accused, including Bolsonaro’s son Carlos and former ABIN chief Alexandre Ramagem, Bolsonaro himself was not formally charged. The decision on whether to indict him now rests with Brazil’s Prosecutor General. Police also cited possible links between the surveillance scheme and an alleged coup plot, in which Bolsonaro is already a defendant. Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes released the report after media leaks caused confusion. Associated Press . A Brazilian federal police report released on Wednesday alleges that former President Jair Bolsonaro was the key beneficiary of an illegal surveillance scheme run by the country’s intelligence agency, ABIN, during his presidency. The report claims ABIN was used to spy on political opponents, attack state institutions, and spread disinformation. While over 30 individuals were formally accused, including Bolsonaro’s son Carlos and former ABIN chief Alexandre Ramagem, Bolsonaro himself was not formally charged. The decision on whether to indict him now rests with Brazil’s Prosecutor General. Police also cited possible links between the surveillance scheme and an alleged coup plot, in which Bolsonaro is already a defendant. Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes released the report after media leaks caused confusion. Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE Ukraine emerges with little from the G7 summit in Canada. At the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Ukraine came away with little of what it had hoped for. President Volodymyr Zelensky sought stronger commitments from the Group of 7, particularly U.S. backing and a united front against Russia. Instead, global focus shifted to the escalating Iran-Israel conflict. President Donald Trump left the summit early, canceled his meeting with Zelensky, and blocked any joint G7 statement condemning Russia. Ukraine received only a $1.7 billion military aid pledge from Canada, far short of the broader diplomatic and military support it sought. The final summit summary offered vague language, backing Trump’s “peace efforts” rather than directly addressing Russian aggression. Zelensky canceled his scheduled press conference, signaling disappointment. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said some nations wanted stronger wording, but attention had shifted to Iran. The result underscored Ukraine’s diminishing priority amid shifting global crises. New York Times

Trump rejects Putin’s Iran mediation offer: ‘Mediate Russia first.’ U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday publicly rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer to mediate the Israel-Iran conflict, telling reporters: “Do me a favor. Mediate your own. Let’s mediate Russia first, okay? I said, Vladimir, let’s mediate Russia first. You can worry about this later.” Trump’s remark, delivered outside the White House, marked a reversal from earlier openness to Russian mediation, which had drawn criticism from Western leaders. Kyiv Independent Putin says he’s ready to meet Zelensky if West ‘stops pushing’ Ukraine to fight. During a roundtable with top editors of international news agencies on Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated he is willing to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for peace talks, but only if the West stops pressuring Ukraine to continue fighting. He emphasized Russia’s preference for a peaceful resolution and signaled readiness for renewed negotiations after June 22, following planned prisoner and casualty exchanges. Putin reiterated the Kremlin’s claim that Zelensky’s legitimacy is questionable but said Russia would accept any Ukrainian representative if the final agreement is signed by a “legitimate authority.” He also cast doubt on Germany’s neutrality as a mediator. Kyiv Independent Ukraine must accept Moscow’s demands or ‘surrender,’ Russia’s ambassador to UK says . In an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, Russia’s ambassador to the U.K., Andrei Kelin, warned that Ukraine must accept Moscow’s terms or face continued military advances and eventual “surrender.” He dismissed U.S.-backed ceasefire efforts, stating that Russia is on the offensive and claimed—exaggerating—that Russian forces seized 600 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in May. Kelin outlined Russia’s conditions: recognition of its annexation of Crimea and four occupied regions, Ukrainian military withdrawal from those areas, and guarantees of Ukraine’s neutrality and non-NATO status. He framed the choice as “take our conditions now or surrender later under worse terms.” Kyiv Independent Kyiv mourns as death toll from Russian strike climbs to 28. Kyiv is mourning after Russia launched its deadliest attack on the capital in 2025, killing at least 28 people and wounding many more. President Zelensky said Russia used 440 drones and 32 missiles in a multi-wave assault that partly destroyed a residential building and struck 27 sites, including schools and infrastructure. In Odesa, two others were killed in a separate strike. Rescue workers continue searching through debris as residents set up makeshift memorials. Russia claims it targeted military-industrial sites, but the human toll has deepened despair. Zelensky, returning from a disappointing G7 summit, called diplomacy “in crisis” as the U.S. offers no new weapons. Reuters Putin cautions Germany over any Taurus missile supplies to Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Germany would be seen as directly involved in the war if it supplied Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles. He claimed such use would require German officers and satellite targeting, effectively making Germany a combatant if Russian territory were struck. Germany has so far declined Ukraine’s requests for Taurus missiles, Putin expressed openness to talks with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Reuters ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, June 18. Russian forces launched a platoon- to company-sized mechanized assault near Toretsk and Kostyantynivka on June 17–18, indicating a possible renewed focus on this front. The Kremlin is leveraging the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) to promote a narrative of social stability and prepare the Russian public for a prolonged war. As part of SPIEF, President Vladimir Putin plans to engage international journalists to broadcast Kremlin narratives globally and deter Western support for Ukraine. The Kremlin arrested pro-war blogger Mikhail Polynkov, continuing its broader campaign to suppress dissenting voices and control the Russian information space. Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts and near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts and near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE EU devises scheme to squeeze more profit from Russian frozen assets . The European Union is considering shifting nearly €200 billion in frozen Russian assets into higher-risk investments to generate more aid for Ukraine without directly confiscating the funds—an approach aimed at avoiding legal and political backlash. The assets, which have been held in Belgium since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, currently yield low returns. By placing them in a new EU-controlled investment vehicle, officials aim to boost profits for Ukraine, particularly as U.S. support remains uncertain under President Trump. This workaround seeks to circumvent opposition from EU states, such as Germany and Italy, which outright resist asset seizure. It also attempts to neutralize Hungary’s recurring threats to veto the renewal of sanctions. However, critics warn that any losses from riskier investments could fall on EU taxpayers. With the bloc’s main budget overstretched and Ukraine’s funding needs rising beyond 2027, EU leaders face tough decisions on sustaining long-term support. Politico EU Putin and Xi discussed ‘rough edges’ between G7 leaders at summit, Kremlin says. The Kremlin reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone call in which they discussed tensions among G7 leaders at the recent summit in Canada. The two noted internal divisions, particularly following U.S. President Donald Trump’s early departure to address the Israel-Iran conflict, which prevented a planned meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov described Zelensky’s trip as unsuccessful. Putin and Xi also discussed the Israel-Iran crisis, deepened bilateral cooperation, and preparations for the upcoming BRICS summit in Brazil, including a proposed investment platform for the Global South. Reuters

Putin’s investment forum fails to attract Western companies. President Vladimir Putin’s annual investment forum in St. Petersburg failed to attract Western companies, reflecting Russia’s deepening economic isolation amid war and sanctions. Even most allied nations sent only low-level representatives—except Indonesia, whose president Prabowo Subianto attended and reaffirmed strong ties with Moscow. The forum, largely symbolic, served more to project domestic strength than to announce meaningful foreign investment. Few Russian business elites showed up, and the speaker lineup included several relatives of top Kremlin officials, including Putin’s daughters. Russia’s economy faces rising inflation, high interest rates, and slowing growth. Though the Kremlin claims Western companies may return post-sanctions, officials admit no such requests have been received. Despite pageantry and propaganda, the event highlighted Russia’s growing reliance on friendly autocracies and family networks, not genuine global engagement. Financial Times

Finnish parliament votes to exit landmines treaty due to Russia threat. Finland’s parliament voted Thursday to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel landmines, citing the growing military threat from Russia. President Alexander Stubb defended the move, calling Russia “an aggressive, imperialist state” that uses landmines and is not a treaty signatory. Finland joins other NATO and European Union members bordering Russia—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland—that have exited or plan to exit the treaty. The decision enables Finland to begin stockpiling landmines six months after formal notice. UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed grave concern over withdrawals, but Finnish officials insist the move is to protect civilians and reduce the risk of attack. Reuters Mark Rutte DOGEs NATO with dozens of job cuts . NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is implementing a major internal restructuring, cutting two divisions and dozens of staff positions at NATO headquarters in Brussels. The move aims to streamline the alliance’s bureaucracy and boost efficiency amid growing geopolitical threats and fears that U.S. President Donald Trump may withdraw from the alliance. The divisions being eliminated are the Public Diplomacy and Executive Management units, with their functions set to be absorbed by remaining departments. Rutte, who became NATO chief last October, has underscored the need to adapt NATO to a more complex world. While the changes have been likened to Elon Musk’s aggressive government cutbacks, officials say Rutte’s approach is more deliberate and strategic. The restructuring is seen as part of Rutte’s effort to demonstrate to Trump and other allies that NATO can operate more efficiently and wisely manage its resources. Politico EU

Massive security operation for NATO summit turns parts of The Hague into a fortress. The Hague is undergoing its largest-ever security operation, “Orange Shield,” as it prepares to host the NATO summit on June 24–25. With 27,000 police and 10,000 defense personnel deployed, the city has transformed into a fortress, disrupting daily life with road closures, transit restrictions, and airspace lockdowns. Military jets, naval patrols, bomb squads, and cybersecurity teams are in place, while protests are expected. Leaders, including U.S. President Trump, will discuss NATO spending and Ukraine during the summit. Associated Press

Boeing: Europe must reduce critical mineral dependence on China, just like US. At the Paris Air Show, Boeing executive Turbo Sjogren urged European countries to follow the U.S. in reducing dependence on China for critical minerals vital to defense and aerospace industries. Highlighting the global nature of aerospace supply chains, Sjogren stressed the need for U.S.-EU collaboration, noting Boeing’s compliance with the U.S. Specialty Metals Act, which bans sourcing from China. He expects Europe to adopt similar safeguards as it ramps up defense autonomy. China, dominating global rare earth processing, recently imposed export restrictions in response to U.S. tariffs, intensifying supply chain concerns. The EU is already advancing strategic raw material initiatives under its Critical Raw Materials Act. Boeing emphasized its extensive European partnerships and readiness to support regional defense capabilities. South China Morning Post Separatist Moldovan region facing crisis without Russian gas, minister says. Moldova’s pro-Russian separatist region of Transdniestria is facing a severe economic crisis after Russia halted its nearly free gas supplies in January 2025, following Ukraine’s pipeline shutdown. Economic Development Minister Sergei Obolonik warned of collapsing industrial and agricultural production, forecasting a 12% GDP drop, 30% plunge in industry, and 16% inflation. Transdniestria has sourced limited alternative gas through Hungary, but it’s insufficient. Moldova’s pro-European Union leadership fears Moscow may exploit Transdniestrian instability to sway upcoming elections. Future economic stabilization hinges on securing reliable energy and avoiding new Moldovan sanctions. President Maia Sandu aims for EU membership by 2030. Reuters Greece bristles as Turkey draws a line of marine influence right down the Aegean Sea. Turkey has escalated its maritime dispute with Greece by submitting a new spatial plan to UNESCO that effectively claims half of the Aegean Sea as under Turkish marine influence. The map, based on long-standing Turkish territorial claims, overlaps with the maritime zones of numerous Greek islands, prompting strong objections from Athens. Greek officials argue the plan violates international law and has no legal validity. The move follows Greece’s recent announcement to create marine parks in the Ionian Sea and Southern Cyclades—excluding contested waters. However, Turkey continues to reject Greece’s maritime claims, especially those based on the rights of Greek islands, and also challenges Greece’s national maritime map published in April. The dispute reflects broader tensions over sovereignty, ecological protection, and regional energy exploration. Politico EU Reuters Trump envoy set to meet Lukashenko in Belarus. U.S. Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg is planning a high-level visit to Belarus soon to meet President Alexander Lukashenko, marking the most senior American visit in years. The trip aims to build on recent efforts to free American and European political prisoners and potentially improve conditions for peace talks over Russia’s war in Ukraine. The move signals a shift in U.S. policy under President Trump, seeking to re engage Minsk after years of strained ties and suspended diplomatic presence. U.S. Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg is planning a high-level visit to Belarus soon to meet President Alexander Lukashenko, marking the most senior American visit in years. The trip aims to build on recent efforts to free American and European political prisoners and potentially improve conditions for peace talks over Russia’s war in Ukraine. The move signals a shift in U.S. policy under President Trump, seeking to re engage Minsk after years of strained ties and suspended diplomatic presence. Politico EU

THE MIDDLE EAST Trump Privately Approved Attack Plans for Iran but Has Withheld Final Order. President Donald Trump has approved U.S. attack plans against Iran but is holding off on execution, hoping Tehran will abandon its nuclear program. The Fordow enrichment facility, situated deep underground, is a likely target for the U.S., although it is extremely difficult to destroy. “I may do it, I may not,” Trump said Wednesday while demanding Iran’s unconditional surrender within days. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed defiance, warning of severe consequences for U.S. intervention. Meanwhile, the U.S. is bolstering its regional military presence, with two carrier strike groups deployed. Israel continues to strike Iranian targets, killing hundreds, while Iran’s retaliation has caused 24 deaths in Israel. Evacuation flights are being arranged for Americans. Wall Street Journal American officials are preparing for a possible strike on Iran in the coming days. Sources familiar with the situation say that senior U.S. officials are preparing for a potential strike on Iran in the coming days, signaling that Washington may soon enter the fray, and participate in the Israel-Iran conflict directly. While no final decision has been made, some sources suggest a weekend strike is under consideration, and federal agencies are making contingency plans. President Trump, who previously advocated diplomacy with Iran, has shifted toward a more aggressive stance. Influenced by hawks like Senator Lindsey Graham, the American leader has expressed openness to military action, though he insists no decision will be made until the last moment. Iran maintains it does not seek nuclear arms and remains open to diplomacy, while European powers plan nuclear talks with Tehran. Bloomberg Reuters Times of Israel Putin says he does not want to discuss the possible killing of Iranian supreme leader by Israel, U.S. President Vladimir Putin on Thursday declined to discuss the possibility of Israel or the U.S. targeting Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling the scenario too sensitive to address. In light of recent remarks from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about regime change and President Trump’s comments suggesting Washington knows Khamenei’s location, Putin said that Iranian society appears to be uniting around its leadership amid escalating conflict. He urged all sides to seek a diplomatic resolution that safeguards Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy and Israel’s right to security. Putin confirmed he’s in contact with both Trump and Netanyahu, and reiterated the Kremlin’s commitment to a peaceful solution. While dismissing the possibility of military aid to Iran under a recent strategic treaty, he stressed Russia’s civilian nuclear cooperation with Tehran and warned that Israeli strikes risk a nuclear catastrophe. Moscow continues to discourage U.S. military action, citing regional destabilization risks. President Vladimir Putin on Thursday declined to discuss the possibility of Israel or the U.S. targeting Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling the scenario too sensitive to address. In light of recent remarks from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about regime change and President Trump’s comments suggesting Washington knows Khamenei’s location, Putin said that Iranian society appears to be uniting around its leadership amid escalating conflict. He urged all sides to seek a diplomatic resolution that safeguards Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy and Israel’s right to security. Putin confirmed he’s in contact with both Trump and Netanyahu, and reiterated the Kremlin’s commitment to a peaceful solution. While dismissing the possibility of military aid to Iran under a recent strategic treaty, he stressed Russia’s civilian nuclear cooperation with Tehran and warned that Israeli strikes risk a nuclear catastrophe. Moscow continues to discourage U.S. military action, citing regional destabilization risks. Reuters Associated Press South China Morning Post

Iran is open to talks with the US, a senior diplomat says, even as the supreme leader rejects the idea. Despite Ayatollah Khamenei’s public rejection of talks with the U.S., a senior Iranian Foreign Ministry official signaled willingness to reopen diplomacy. The official said Iran would accept President Trump’s offer for talks, potentially involving Vice President JD Vance or envoy Steve Witkoff. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed readiness to discuss a cease-fire and nuclear issues, on the condition that Israel halts its attacks. Before hostilities began, Iran and the U.S. had been negotiating through Oman. Those talks collapsed after Israel launched strikes on Iran. New diplomatic efforts are underway, involving European, Arab, and Turkish officials, with a United Nations Security Council session scheduled for Friday. New York Times European ministers to hold nuclear talks with Iran on Friday in Geneva, source says. European foreign ministers from Germany, France, and Britain will meet Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva this Friday. Coordinated with the U.S. and hosted by EU foreign-policy chief Kaja Kallas, their goal is to secure a firm commitment that Iran’s nuclear program remains solely for civilian use. These high-level meetings will be followed by expert-level dialogue. The initiative is part of a broader effort to defuse rising tensions sparked by recent Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory missile attacks. President Trump has stayed silent on U.S. military involvement, while European leaders urge de-escalation and a return to diplomacy. Reuters Israel says ‘it was a mistake’ to say Iran’s Bushehr was hit. An Israeli military official said on Thursday that “it was a mistake” for a military spokesperson to have said earlier in the day that Israel had struck the Bushehr nuclear site in Iran. The official would only confirm that Israel had hit the Natanz, Isfahan and Arak nuclear sites in Iran. Pressed further on Bushehr, Iran’s only operational nuclear power plant, the official said he could neither confirm or deny that Israel had struck the location, where Iran has a reactor. Hitting Bushehr, which is close to Gulf Arab neighbours and staffed in part by Russian experts, would have been a major escalation. Reuters Reuters America’s huge bunker-busting bomb is not sure to work in Iran. Israel’s airstrikes have damaged surface structures at Iran’s nuclear sites, but deeply buried facilities like Fordow likely remain untouched. The only conventional weapon capable of destroying such bunkers is America’s GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a 13-ton bomb carried exclusively by B-2 stealth bombers. It can pierce over 60 meters of standard concrete—but Iran may be using ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) that is much stronger, potentially limiting the bomb’s effectiveness. Even if the MOP reaches its target, success depends on pinpoint accuracy, which may be compromised by GPS jamming. Israel’s more resilient SPICE guidance system could be adapted, but retrofitting would take time. In short, the MOP might work—if Iran’s defenses are weaker than feared and guidance systems perform flawlessly. But it also might not—if the concrete is too strong or the bomb misses its mark. Only the U.S. has this capability, and even then, the outcome is far from guaranteed. The Economist Axios IDF reports strike on the largest hospital in southern Israel. An Iranian missile barrage early Thursday struck Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba, Israel’s largest hospital in the south, causing extensive damage and a fire, according to Israel’s Foreign Ministry and Fire and Rescue Authority. The hospital is assessing casualties. Multiple impact sites were reported across the country, including munitions debris hitting residential buildings in central Israel, with damage confirmed in cities like Ramat Gan. Sirens sounded around 7 a.m. local time, and an all-clear was issued about 40 minutes later. Emergency services reported two people seriously injured and around 30 others with minor injuries from shrapnel and debris. Washington Post BBC Times of Israel Deutsche Welle Israeli attacks kill 140 in Gaza in 24 hours, medics say. Israeli strikes killed at least 140 people in Gaza over the past 24 hours, according to Gaza’s health ministry, amid rising concern that the humanitarian crisis there is being overshadowed by Israel’s conflict with Iran. Since late May, nearly 400 Palestinians seeking aid have been killed, and over 3,000 wounded. Strikes hit homes, refugee camps, and aid distribution points, including on Salahuddin Road, where 14 died. The Israeli military claims it warned civilians and was targeting Hamas. Gaza residents describe widespread hunger, displacement, and desperation. Aid deliveries remain insufficient, with the World Food Programme calling the current situation “unacceptable.” Philippe Lazzarini of UNRWA labeled the aid system “a disgrace.” Some Palestinians feel forgotten as international focus shifts. Reuters Inside the spy dossier that led Israel to war. Israel’s June 13 attack on Iran was driven by a secret intelligence dossier alleging Iran had reached a “point of no return” in developing nuclear weapons. Shared with the U.S. and Western allies, the dossier claims Iran’s scientists had stockpiled undeclared nuclear material and were accelerating efforts to weaponize, including preparing to “mate” a nuclear warhead with a missile. The intelligence cites a “Special Progress Group” formed under assassinated nuclear chief Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, which allegedly stepped up its work in late 2024 as Iran reeled from setbacks to its proxies and air defenses. While Israel’s intelligence community backs the claims, American agencies remain divided, with International Atomic Energy Association head Rafael Grossi noting no definitive proof of a systematic bomb push. Trump, disregarding dissenting intel voices like Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, appears aligned with Israel’s assessment. The credibility and interpretation of this intelligence—reminiscent of Iraq in 2003—now shape a high-stakes calculus on escalation and preemptive strikes, including on Fordow, an underground uranium-enrichment plant. The Economist Israel’s secret war inside Iran. Israel’s opening strike on Iran was the culmination of a years-long, deeply integrated intelligence and military operation combining Mossad and Aman capabilities. The campaign targeted over a dozen senior officials, nuclear scientists, missile sites, and aerial defense systems within minutes, leveraging commercial satellites, hacked phones, covert agents, and even civilian tech tools. The goal was to delay Iran’s response and assert full aerial dominance—successfully achieved in the early phase. Mossad’s unparalleled infiltration of Iran’s security architecture has left Tehran scrambling, with warnings about micro drones, mobile phone surveillance, and fears of internal betrayal. Unlike Iran’s limited intelligence reach in Israel, Mossad has executed high-profile assassinations, heists, and cyber operations inside Iran. The operation underscores Israel’s capacity for complete intelligence dominance, though former officials caution against the arrogance such success may breed. Despite the initial tactical victories, Israel has yet to achieve its strategic goal: the full dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. Financial Times Israeli Air Dominance Means It Is Shooting Down Iranian Missiles Before They Launch. Israel has achieved aerial dominance over Iran, allowing it to strike missile launchers and disrupt Iranian command structures preemptively. Israeli air forces have destroyed over 120 launchers and degraded Iran’s ability to fire large missile salvos, with recent Iranian attacks reduced to smaller waves. This shift enables Israel’s air defenses to intercept incoming threats more effectively. Iran began the conflict with around 2,000 ballistic missiles but has used only about 400. Experts suggest Tehran may be preserving its stockpile or facing logistical limitations, especially with slower-to-deploy liquid-fuel missiles. Israeli confidence is growing, evidenced by relaxed civil restrictions and reopened airports. However, concerns remain about Iran’s potential use of hypersonic weapons and Israel’s dwindling interceptor supplies. Wall Street Journal U.S. Strike on Iran Would Bring Risks at Every Turn. A U.S. military strike on Iran would carry significant risks and unintended consequences, experts warn. Any attack aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear facilities could provoke a broad regional war, trigger Iranian retaliation against U.S. troops and allies, and destabilize global energy markets. Iran could respond asymmetrically through proxy forces or cyberattacks, while also escalating threats to commercial shipping and oil infrastructure in the Gulf. Experts also highlight the danger of a nationalist backlash within Iran, which could potentially strengthen hardliners rather than weakening the regime. Diplomatic fallout could isolate the U.S. internationally, particularly if civilian casualties are high. Analysts caution that while military action might delay Iran’s nuclear progress, it would not eliminate the program or ensure long-term security. New York Times Troops in Mideast Would Be Vulnerable to Iran Strikes on U.S. Targets. If President Trump orders U.S. military involvement alongside Israel against Iran, over 40,000 American troops stationed across the Middle East could become immediate targets for Iranian retaliation. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned of “irreparable damage” if the U.S. intervenes. Key vulnerable locations include Iraq (2,500 troops), Bahrain (9,000 personnel at the Navy’s Fifth Fleet HQ), Kuwait (13,500 troops across five bases), Qatar (10,000 at Al Udeid Air Base, CENTCOM HQ), and the UAE (3,500 at Al Dhafra Air Base). Experts warn that Iranian ballistic missiles could reach some bases in just minutes, giving limited time for interception. Iran also has proxy militias in Iraq capable of striking U.S. positions. With missile launches from Iran and threats to choke off the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic and economic stakes are high. The U.S. has fortified defenses since the 2023 Hamas attacks but faces a critical decision on whether to join Israel offensively. New York Times Israel strikes Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor, state television says. Israeli forces struck Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor, Iranian state television said Thursday. The facility had been evacuated beforehand, and no radiation risk was reported. Israel had issued a warning via social media earlier in the day, advising civilians to flee the area. The Arak reactor, located 155 miles southwest of Tehran, uses heavy water to cool reactors, potentially producing plutonium usable in nuclear weapons—a second path to armament beyond uranium enrichment. The site was once central to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, with Britain helping to redesign it after the U.S. exited the agreement in 2018 under President Trump. The International Atomic Energy Agency last inspected the site in May, though it now lacks full oversight. Israel’s strike follows days of escalating attacks on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure, with over 600 Iranian casualties reported. Iran has retaliated with missile and drone strikes that have killed at least 24 in Israel. Israeli forces struck Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor, Iranian state television said Thursday. The facility had been evacuated beforehand, and no radiation risk was reported. Israel had issued a warning via social media earlier in the day, advising civilians to flee the area. The Arak reactor, located 155 miles southwest of Tehran, uses heavy water to cool reactors, potentially producing plutonium usable in nuclear weapons—a second path to armament beyond uranium enrichment. The site was once central to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, with Britain helping to redesign it after the U.S. exited the agreement in 2018 under President Trump. The International Atomic Energy Agency last inspected the site in May, though it now lacks full oversight. Israel’s strike follows days of escalating attacks on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure, with over 600 Iranian casualties reported. Iran has retaliated with missile and drone strikes that have killed at least 24 in Israel. Politico

Why Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ Is Missing in Action. Iran’s long-cultivated “Axis of Resistance”—militia allies like Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi Shiite groups, and the Houthis—has largely stayed on the sidelines as Israel wages war on Tehran. Once powerful tools of Iranian regional influence, many of these groups are now focused on self-preservation amid devastating Israeli strikes and deep intelligence penetration. Hezbollah, weakened and leaderless after Israeli attacks, is rebuilding and distancing slightly from Iran. Hamas has been shattered after 20 months of war. Iraqi militias are prioritizing economic gains and face government pressure to remain quiet. The Houthis, degraded by U.S. airstrikes, are acting in their own interest. Analysts say fear of Israeli capabilities and lack of Iranian support have dampened willingness to escalate. However, if the U.S. joins Israel in striking Iran, that could spark broader retaliation. For now, the network that once amplified Iran’s power is fractured, cautious, and reorienting toward local priorities over ideological alignment. Wall Street Journal In Attacking Iran, Israel Further Alienates Would-Be Arab Allies. Israel’s attack on Iran has alarmed Gulf Arab states, straining recent diplomatic progress between Israel and wealthy Gulf countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Once hopeful about regional integration and cooperation with Israel, Gulf leaders now view its aggressive military posture as destabilizing. The UAE waived visa penalties for stranded Iranians and expressed solidarity with Iran, while Saudi Arabia denounced Israel’s “blatant aggression.” Though distrust toward Iran remains, many Gulf officials see Israel—not Iran—as the driver of current instability. Economic concerns, including risks to tourism, investment, and oil transport, have intensified. Despite efforts at de-escalation, Gulf states are reluctant to act beyond diplomacy. They fear both Iranian retaliation and growing extremism, while expressing frustration with President Trump’s inaction in restraining Israel. A sense of helplessness pervades Gulf capitals, where leaders worry that the war could undo years of effort toward regional calm and economic progress. New York Times Ships are advised to keep their distance from Iran around the Hormuz Strait . Amid open airstrikes between Israel and Iran, commercial ships are rerouting closer to Oman to avoid Iranian waters near the critical Strait of Hormuz. Maritime agencies have issued advisories urging vessels, especially those under Greek flags, to steer clear of Iran’s jurisdiction due to past violations of navigation safety. Despite sailing through the wider Gulf of Oman, ships must still pass through the 21-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz, where recent military activity and electronic interference have increased risks. The situation has pushed up oil tanker earnings and led QatarEnergy to delay ship entry into the Gulf until just before loading. With navigation threats rising, the U.S.-led Combined Maritime Forces confirmed the regional maritime threat level remains significantly elevated. Reuters See What Strategic Infrastructure Israel Has Damaged in Iran. Israel’s largest-ever assault on Iran has caused extensive damage to key infrastructure, targeting nuclear, missile, energy, and media facilities across the country. Over 200 people have been killed and hundreds more injured. Israel’s strikes hit Iran’s critical nuclear facilities at Natanz and Isfahan, damaging enrichment equipment and labs, while the heavily fortified Fordo site remains untouched. At least 12 missile bases were struck, including major storage and launch sites in Kermanshah and Shiraz. Israel also bombed Tehran’s main gas depot, oil refinery, and part of a massive gas field, sparking large fires. A military airport in Tabriz and Iran’s state broadcaster headquarters were also hit, including a televised explosion during a live broadcast. Though some major nuclear sites like Bushehr and Arak were spared, the coordinated strikes have significantly disrupted Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. New York Times Wall Street Journal

Syria completes first global SWIFT transfer since war, governor says . Syria has executed its first international bank transfer via the SWIFT network since 2011, signaling a major step toward reintegration into global finance. Central Bank Governor Abdelkader Husriyeh confirmed that a transaction with an Italian bank took place, and projected that transfers with U.S. banks may commence within weeks. This financial milestone follows the lifting of Western sanctions after the removal of Bashar al-Assad, enabling Syria to pursue urgent reconstruction funding. Plans are underway to encourage major U.S. banks to open local offices, potentially unlocking large flows of investment to support rebuilding efforts and alleviate deep poverty. . Syria has executed its first international bank transfer via the SWIFT network since 2011, signaling a major step toward reintegration into global finance. Central Bank Governor Abdelkader Husriyeh confirmed that a transaction with an Italian bank took place, and projected that transfers with U.S. banks may commence within weeks. This financial milestone follows the lifting of Western sanctions after the removal of Bashar al-Assad, enabling Syria to pursue urgent reconstruction funding. Plans are underway to encourage major U.S. banks to open local offices, potentially unlocking large flows of investment to support rebuilding efforts and alleviate deep poverty. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA China made millions of drones. Now it has to find uses for them. China has become the global leader in commercial drone production, manufacturing 70–80% of the world’s supply and dominating patent filings. Now, with millions of drones built, it is seeking ways to apply them across its economy. In cities like Shenzhen, drones are being used for deliveries, firefighting, agriculture, surveillance, and medical transport. The government is promoting a “low-altitude economy”—activity below 1,000 meters—to drive growth, forecasting the sector will quintuple to $490 billion by 2035. While military clients remain the primary buyers, drone makers are targeting civilian markets amid tight export controls and intense domestic competition. Companies like Meituan have received approval for nationwide drone food delivery, while agricultural drones drastically reduce labor time. A new government division has been set up to support this sector, signaling a strategic national priority. Despite innovation, profitability challenges persist as manufacturers compete to adapt military tech for broader civilian use Financial Times

US will strike North Korea if South attacked with nukes, South’s spy chief nominee says . South Korea’s nominee for intelligence chief, Lee Jong-seok, said he believes the U.S. would launch a nuclear strike against North Korea if Pyongyang attacked South Korea with nuclear weapons. Speaking at his nomination hearing on Thursday, Lee affirmed his trust in the Washington-Seoul security alliance, even in a scenario in which North Korea has intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of threatening the U.S. While North Korea has not tested a nuclear-armed missile, it is believed to possess enough fissile material to build such weapons. Lee was nominated to head the National Intelligence Service by President Lee Jae Myung, who took office on June 4. Reuters

North Korea fired multiple-launch rockets from near Pyongyang, South Korea says . North Korea fired over 10 multiple-launched rockets Thursday morning from Sunan, near Pyongyang, in a northwesterly direction, according to South Korea’s military. While further details were not immediately released, the weapons are typically classified by South Korea as short-range ballistic missiles—banned under U.N. Security Council resolutions. The launch adds to ongoing regional tensions amid North Korea’s continued defiance of international restrictions on its missile program. Reuters Yonhap News Agency South Korea, U.S., Japan stage joint air drills in 1st 3-way exercise under Lee government. South Korea, the U.S., and Japan conducted joint air drills Wednesday over waters near Jeju Island to strengthen trilateral security cooperation amid growing threats from North Korea. It was the first such exercise since South Korean President Lee Jae Myung took office earlier this month. The drills involved South Korean F-15K fighter aircraft, American F-16 jets, and Japanese F-2 fighters, and aimed to deter North Korea’s advancing nuclear and missile capabilities while reinforcing regional stability. The South’s Air Force stated these exercises will continue, grounded in the strong South Korea-U.S. alliance. The drill followed news that North Korea plans to send military personnel to support Russian reconstruction efforts in Kursk, highlighting Pyongyang’s growing military ties with Moscow. Yonhap News Agency New Zealand pauses Cook Islands funding over China spat . New Zealand has frozen NZ$18.2 million (US$11 million) in aid to the Cook Islands over concerns about recent agreements the Pacific nation signed with China. The funding pause reflects growing tension between the two countries, which have long-standing constitutional ties. Wellington is the Cook Islands’ largest donor and says the deals, which include infrastructure funding and scholarships from China, breached the free association pact that requires consultation on foreign partnerships affecting shared interests. The freeze affects core support for health, education, and tourism. Prime Minister Mark Brown downplayed the action, calling it a “pause,” but New Zealand officials insist trust must be restored before aid resumes. The move comes as New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon visits China, complicating diplomatic optics. Analysts say the Cook Islands underestimated the strategic implications of their engagement with Beijing amid growing regional concerns over Chinese influence. . New Zealand has frozen NZ$18.2 million (US$11 million) in aid to the Cook Islands over concerns about recent agreements the Pacific nation signed with China. The funding pause reflects growing tension between the two countries, which have long-standing constitutional ties. Wellington is the Cook Islands’ largest donor and says the deals, which include infrastructure funding and scholarships from China, breached the free association pact that requires consultation on foreign partnerships affecting shared interests. The freeze affects core support for health, education, and tourism. Prime Minister Mark Brown downplayed the action, calling it a “pause,” but New Zealand officials insist trust must be restored before aid resumes. The move comes as New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon visits China, complicating diplomatic optics. Analysts say the Cook Islands underestimated the strategic implications of their engagement with Beijing amid growing regional concerns over Chinese influence. Associated Press Reuters Australian Broadcasting Corporation BBC

AFRICA Rwanda, Congo initial peace agreement ahead of signing next week. Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo have initiated a draft peace agreement aimed at ending conflict in eastern Congo, with the support of the United States. The deal, expected to be signed on June 27, follows three days of talks. It addresses territorial integrity, the disarmament and integration of non-state armed groups, and the creation of a joint security mechanism. This marks a potential breakthrough after previous agreements under Angolan mediation failed due to a lack of ministerial approval. Angola stepped down in March following the escalation of fighting involving Rwanda-backed M23 rebels, who this year captured major eastern Congolese cities. Kinshasa accuses Rwanda of supporting M23 with troops and weapons, while Kigali denies this, claiming its actions are in self-defense against Congo’s army and Hutu militias linked to the 1994 genocide. The peace deal also aims to pave the way for significant Western investment in the region, rich with critical resources including tantalum, gold, cobalt, copper and lithium. Reuters Le Monde Associated Press

Nigerian president orders crackdown on gangs after 150 killed in conflict-hit north . Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has ordered security forces to track down those responsible for a brutal attack in Benue State that left at least 150 people dead. The massacre occurred in the Yelewata community over the weekend, where assailants opened fire on sleeping villagers and set homes ablaze. Many victims had been seeking refuge after fleeing previous violence. Authorities blame herdsmen for the attack, as part of a long-running pastoral conflict in northern Nigeria. Facing criticism for his delayed response, Tinubu visited Benue five days after the attack, promising justice and peace. He did not visit the affected village directly. The president questioned police for failing to make any arrests days after the killings, amid pressure over the government’s broader handling of Nigeria’s worsening security crisis. Critics and analysts argue that continued impunity and lack of political resolve fuel ongoing violence, leaving victims without justice or closure. Associated Press

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS Iran orders officials to ditch connected devices . Iran’s cyber command has instructed top officials and their security detail to stop using internet-connected devices, including smartphones and laptops, amid rising fears of digital espionage from Israel. The directive, reported by state-linked Fars agency, reflects Tehran’s concern that adversaries could exploit connected gadgets to track or hack key personnel. The move underscores a broader pattern of cyber defensiveness by both Iran and Israel, who are known to possess sophisticated offensive cyber capabilities. Politico Iranians refuse to be kept in the dark amid government internet restrictions . Iranians refuse to be kept in the dark amid government internet restrictions. Iranians have dramatically increased their use of VPNs—up over 700%—following the government’s tight internet restrictions imposed after Israeli airstrikes . These measures, including threats of legal action for content deemed harmful to “society’s psychological security,” have severely curtailed web access. Despite VPNs being officially banned in Iran, telemetry from Top10VPN shows usage soaring by 425% on June 13, peaking at a 707% increase by June 15, indicating a widespread public effort to maintain access to global information and communication platforms. Cybernews AP cites sources on Israeli AI, drone usage in lengthy preparation for attack on Iran . Israeli intelligence made use of AI, drones, and on-the-ground operatives to carry out its successful military operations against high-level Iranian targets. The drones that Israel smuggled into Iran in advance were guided by AI in attacks that — in concert with warplanes — quickly knocked out many Iranian air defense and missile systems. Sima Shine, the former Mossad research director and currently an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies, told the Associated Press that the Israeli attack “is the culmination of years of work by the Mossad to target Iran’s nuclear program.” According to a former Israeli intelligence officer, the Mossad and the military collaborated for at least three years to set the operational groundwork. Other sources said Israel used leading-edge AI tools to analyze collected intelligence and develop plans to target Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists as well as key sites. U.S. infrastructure sectors initiate threat-sharing procedures against potential Iran cyberattacks . Key sectors of U.S. critical infrastructure — including power, water, and transportation — are reportedly preparing for a possible onslaught of Iran-directed cyberattacks. No official warnings about heightened cyber threats have been issued so far unlike prior geopolitical crises when federal agencies have been instrumental in sounding the alarm. However, that could change quickly should the U.S. become militarily involved in the Israeli-Iran conflict. John Hultquist, chief analyst for Google Threat Intelligence Group, said that in the event of direct U.S. involvement, “targets in the United States could be reprioritized for action by Iran’s cyber threat capability.” Spokespersons for CISA, the White House, and the National Security Council have not responded to requests for comment on potential targeting of U.S. critical networks. As they await possible government guidance, U.S. critical infrastructure operators rely on ISAC’s (information sharing and analysis centers) for threat intelligence. For example, last week the Food and Ag-ISAC, which includes Hershey, Tyson and Conagra, and the Information Technology ISAC led by members Intel, IBM and AT&T issued a joint alert strongly urging U.S. companies to intensify security efforts to fend off possible Iranian cyberattacks. A statement by the ISAC’s reviewed by Politico cautioned that even if no U.S. companies are directly targeted, they could still be impacted by cyberattacks on Israel due to their dependence on global interconnectivity. Jeffrey Troy, president and CEO of the Aviation ISAC, said that based on past interruptions to GPS and other aviation systems, member organizations already are “sharing intelligence in real time and collaborating on prevention, detection, and mitigation strategies.” . Israeli intelligence made use of AI, drones, and on-the-ground operatives to carry out its successful military operations against high-level Iranian targets. The drones that Israel smuggled into Iran in advance were guided by AI in attacks that — in concert with warplanes — quickly knocked out many Iranian air defense and missile systems. Sima Shine, the former Mossad research director and currently an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies, told the Associated Press that the Israeli attack “is the culmination of years of work by the Mossad to target Iran’s nuclear program.” According to a former Israeli intelligence officer, the Mossad and the military collaborated for at least three years to set the operational groundwork. Other sources said Israel used leading-edge AI tools to analyze collected intelligence and develop plans to target Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists as well as key sites. Associated Press

. Key sectors of U.S. critical infrastructure — including power, water, and transportation — are reportedly preparing for a possible onslaught of Iran-directed cyberattacks. No official warnings about heightened cyber threats have been issued so far unlike prior geopolitical crises when federal agencies have been instrumental in sounding the alarm. However, that could change quickly should the U.S. become militarily involved in the Israeli-Iran conflict. John Hultquist, chief analyst for Google Threat Intelligence Group, said that in the event of direct U.S. involvement, “targets in the United States could be reprioritized for action by Iran’s cyber threat capability.” Spokespersons for CISA, the White House, and the National Security Council have not responded to requests for comment on potential targeting of U.S. critical networks. As they await possible government guidance, U.S. critical infrastructure operators rely on ISAC’s (information sharing and analysis centers) for threat intelligence. For example, last week the Food and Ag-ISAC, which includes Hershey, Tyson and Conagra, and the Information Technology ISAC led by members Intel, IBM and AT&T issued a joint alert strongly urging U.S. companies to intensify security efforts to fend off possible Iranian cyberattacks. A statement by the ISAC’s reviewed by Politico cautioned that even if no U.S. companies are directly targeted, they could still be impacted by cyberattacks on Israel due to their dependence on global interconnectivity. Jeffrey Troy, president and CEO of the Aviation ISAC, said that based on past interruptions to GPS and other aviation systems, member organizations already are “sharing intelligence in real time and collaborating on prevention, detection, and mitigation strategies.” Politico

White House confirms 90-day extension on deadline for TikTok sale. President Donald Trump plans to extend the deadline for ByteDance, the tech firm, to divest U.S. operations of TikTok. The 90-day extension will permit TikTok to continue running in the U.S. as negotiations between Washington and Beijing continue. The president has expressed optimism that China would agree to a deal, which the U.S. would formalize with an executive order. The administration has received a number of bids to buy TikTok’s U.S. assets, including a consortium of investors led by Oracle, Blackstone, and venture capital giant Andreessen Horowitz. The consortium proposal would allow the Chinese parent company to retain the app’s algorithm, which represented a possible hurdle to gaining the approval of ByteDance and Beijing authorities. Bloomberg CNN Forbes Prague space conference speakers raise concerns over Chinese ‘gray zone’ space operations . Speakers at the 8th annual Space Security Conference in Prague this week raised concerns that Chinese space activity, which includes Beijing’s deployment of highly maneuverable satellites with robotic arms and ongoing moon missions, as possible rehearsals for using satellites as space weapons. U.S. and Taiwan officials, along with independent space experts, worry that China, which describes its space operations as “nonmilitary,” may be attempting to have other nations accept its activities as normal. Holmes Liao, a senior adviser to the Taiwan Space Agency, said recent Chinese space missions are “not just logical demonstrations, but could be, maybe, rehearsals for future space design operations.” Liao added that in response to Chinese missile and space activities, Taiwan is using AI-assisted analysis to track Chinese orbital gray-zone tactics. A Taiwan Space Agency space surveillance center under construction will allow analysts to use AI and space situational awareness data to better interpret satellite maneuvers and rocket launches. Taiwan foreign minister Chen Ming-tong recently described China’s gray zone operations — which include satellite launches that fly near Taiwan — are designed to strain Taiwan’s readiness and response capacity. Defense One China says U.S. plan to replace Huawei towers in Panama ‘politicizing’ economic, tech ties . In the wake of a U.S. announcement of plans to replace Huawei-built communications towers in Panama, China condemned U.S. “malign influence” in Latin America. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson accused the U.S. of politicizing economic and technological matters and declared that Latin America is not anyone’s “backyard.” The spokesperson said that Huawei equipment did not pose a national security threat, and described China’s interactions in the region as based on “mutual respect.” China’s reaction followed an announcement by the U.S. Embassy in Panama that an $8 million initiative will be launched to replace Huawei telecoms equipment at 13 sites in Panama with “secure American technology.” The plan was developed in coordination with Panama’s Ministry of Public Security and includes the installation of seven new towers across four provinces. South China Morning Post Chinese exhibitors double their presence at Paris Air Show, including advanced materials vendors . Chinese exhibitors at this week’s Paris Air Show have more than doubled in number since 2023, with 76 aerospace and advanced materials firms in attendance this year. Many of the Chinese companies are described as first-time participants that are eager to compete for a foothold in the European market as they experience an economic slowdown and what is described as “excessive competition” at home. Europe imports five times more refined titanium used in aerospace applications that it exports and Chinese firms reportedly are well positioned to meet demand at lower costs. Two-thirds of the E.U.’s demand for titanium is associated with civil aviation, and is expected to increase in the future. Valerio Bunino, the agent in Italy for the Shangda Corporation, which specializes in superalloys used in aircraft parts such as engines, landing gear, and airframes, noted that “there is not much room for growth” for the company in China, “so they came to Europe to explore opportunities.” Bunino added, “Europe does not make enough materials; it needs them.” South China Morning Post Pentagon plans further ventures with ‘frontier AI’ firms following OpenAI contract. According to the Pentagon’s Chief Digital and AI Office (CDAO), additional DoD partnerships with “frontier AI” firms will follow the deal announced this week with OpenAI to develop prototype frontier AI capabilities. In a statement to DefenseScoop, the CDAO said OpenAI’s work will center on “prototype agentic workflows to address our hardest challenges.” The statement indicated that in coming weeks the Pentagon “will announce partnerships with other Frontier AI companies as well.” The goal of working with these firms, the statement said, is to create “the agentic workflows needed to increase Joint Force lethality and enterprise efficiencies.” The CDAO recently partnered with the Army’s Enterprise Large Language Model (LLM) Workspace to provide multiple military components with access to “industry-leading general purpose LLMs.” DefenseScoop Texas Instruments announces $60 billion investment in new, upgraded U.S. chip facilities . Texas Instruments (TI) has announced plans to spend over $60 billion on semiconductor plants in the U.S. TI becomes the most recent chip manufacturer to announce intensified domestic production plans amid the Trump administration’s push for investments. The $60 billion figure includes funding already allocated to plants under construction or receiving equipment and facility upgrades. TI plans two new factories at its compound in Sherman, Texas. The company has told investors that establishing new and more capable plants in the U.S. makes competitive sense, especially toward Chinese rivals. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, commenting on the TI investment plan, said “President Trump has made it a priority to increase semiconductor manufacturing in America — including these foundational semiconductors that go into the electronics that people use every day.” TI is the market leader in analog chips, the less-advanced devices that convert sound and pressure into electronic signals. As U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips have taken hold, Chinese companies have rapidly expanded production capabilities in foundational chips as well. Bloomberg Reuters Microsoft plans thousands of job cuts in July, targeting sales teams . Microsoft is preparing to cut thousands of jobs—primarily in sales—as it continues to streamline operations amid massive investments in artificial intelligence. The layoffs, expected to be announced in early July after the close of its fiscal year, follow a previous round in May that affected 6,000 employees, mostly in product and engineering. While the exact scope and timing remain subject to change, sources say customer-facing roles will not be entirely spared this time. In April, Microsoft signaled a shift toward using third-party firms to handle software sales to smaller clients. With tens of billions being spent on AI infrastructure like data centers and servers, the company is under pressure to control costs elsewhere. Microsoft ended June 2024 with 228,000 employees, including 45,000 in sales and marketing. The company declined to comment on the upcoming cuts. Reuters South China Morning Post Microsoft is preparing to cut thousands of jobs—primarily in sales—as it continues to streamline operations amid massive investments in artificial intelligence. The layoffs, expected to be announced in early July after the close of its fiscal year, follow a previous round in May that affected 6,000 employees, mostly in product and engineering. While the exact scope and timing remain subject to change, sources say customer-facing roles will not be entirely spared this time. In April, Microsoft signaled a shift toward using third-party firms to handle software sales to smaller clients. With tens of billions being spent on AI infrastructure like data centers and servers, the company is under pressure to control costs elsewhere. Microsoft ended June 2024 with 228,000 employees, including 45,000 in sales and marketing. The company declined to comment on the upcoming cuts. Bloomberg