
India Exploring Energy Alternatives Amid Looming Russian Oil Sanctions
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Diverging Reports Breakdown
US sanctions on Russian oil expose India’s energy risks
Russian oil accounted for $50 billion, or 35% of India’s total crude import bill in FY 2024–25. The Urals blend has been the preferred choice for Indian refiners seeking affordable options amid volatile global prices. With sanctions looming, a partial pivot back to these sources appears inevitable. India must accelerate domestic oil exploration under the Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP). Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technologies must be deployed across aging fields, while public and private investment in refining infrastructure should be encouraged. Policy reforms to speed up approvals, improve geological surveys, and de-risk exploration investments are overdue. India cannot afford to decouple the Global Climate Risk, the Global Energy Risk, and the Fatih Biroligious Executive Director, the International Energy Agency, during a June 2025 meeting. Now, with global penetration surging from 3% to nearly 20% in just four years, India must aim for 30% market share by 2030, says Piyush Goyal, the Industry Minister.
India, the world’s third-largest energy consumer, finds itself at a precarious situation. Its energy security—long dependent on imported crude oil—is now under direct threat from fresh US sanctions targeting Russian oil exports. A bipartisan US Senate Bill, supported by over 80 senators, proposes sweeping secondary sanctions on countries continuing to import Russian energy. These measures, if enacted, would directly impact India’s access to approximately 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of discounted Russian crude—roughly 39% of its total oil imports as of May 2025.
This is no small matter. Russian oil accounted for $50 billion, or 35% of India’s total crude import bill in FY 2024–25. The Urals blend—traded at a $2–$5 per barrel discount to Brent crude—has been the preferred choice for Indian refiners seeking affordable options amid volatile global prices. Even lighter grades like ESPO and Sokol, priced below $60 per barrel, have gained popularity for their blend compatibility and cost-effectiveness.
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Sanctions—a new energy risk
The Senate Bill introduces not only moral suasion but economic muscle. It includes a proposed 500% tariff on nations continuing to import Russian oil—effectively punishing India and China. Indian refiners, especially state-run ones, are reportedly nervous, with banks already tightening financing channels for cargoes transported by so-called “dark fleet” tankers. These are vessels evading global price caps and sanctions, often operating in legal and insurance grey zones.
In May 2025, India’s Russian oil imports slightly dipped to 1.9 million bpd, down from 1.97 million a year earlier—but this was still a 27% rebound from February, when flows briefly stalled due to US pressure. The current geopolitical landscape—marked by intensifying US-Russia hostility, Moscow’s war in Ukraine, and rising oil politicisation—has compounded the problem. With consultations between Washington and allies like Germany, France, and the UK signalling a coordinated Western strategy, India’s room to manoeuvre is shrinking.
Costly alternatives and supply gaps
Iraq, India’s second-largest supplier, delivered 1.08 million bpd in May 2025. Its Basrah grades, at $76 per barrel, offer no substantial savings. Moreover, Iraq’s limited spare capacity makes it a poor substitute for disrupted Russian volumes. West Asian exporters such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, once dominant players, have been sidelined by the steep discounts on Russian oil. Now, with sanctions looming, a partial pivot back to these sources appears inevitable—but at a price.
India has started to diversify cautiously, seeking volumes from Nigeria, Angola, and Brazil. These nations offer medium and heavy crudes suited to Indian refining configurations. However, building dependable commercial ties and logistics frameworks with these suppliers takes time. Analysts suggest that India should quickly lock in long-term contracts to buffer short-term shocks.
Rebooting domestic capacity
Beyond diplomacy, the more sustainable answer lies within. India must accelerate domestic oil exploration under the Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP). Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technologies must be deployed across aging fields, while public and private investment in refining infrastructure should be encouraged. Upgrading refineries to process a broader range of crude blends would reduce India’s dependence on any one country—Russia included.
Yet progress remains sluggish. Domestic production still covers less than 15% of India’s total crude requirement. Policy reforms to speed up approvals, improve geological surveys, and de-risk exploration investments are overdue. Incentives for companies to modernise refineries and expand processing flexibility should now be central to India’s energy security doctrine.
Green energy—the strategic hedge
In the long term, India must reduce its reliance on imported fossil fuels altogether. Renewables offer a credible path—not only to reduce the carbon footprint but also to insulate the economy from global oil shocks. India, ranked seventh on the Global Climate Risk Index, cannot afford to decouple energy policy from climate resilience.
The International Energy Agency’s Executive Director, Fatih Birol, during a June 2025 meeting with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, reiterated this message. He urged India to fast-track electrification of transport and invest in battery supply chains. India’s FAME-II scheme and its state-level EV policies have laid the groundwork. Now, with global EV penetration surging from 3% to nearly 20% in just four years, India must aim for 30% EV market share by 2030.
Critical minerals and the battery imperative
The EV transition, however, hinges on securing lithium, cobalt, and rare earth minerals—sectors where supply chains remain dangerously concentrated. India’s exploration in Jammu & Kashmir, and efforts to ink mineral access deals with Australia, Chile, and Africa, need to be fast-tracked. The upcoming India-Australia Critical Minerals Partnership, expected to be finalised later this year, could play a key role.
At home, the government must prioritise R&D in battery manufacturing and allocate Production Linked Incentives (PLI) to strengthen localisation. Lessons from successful campaigns—like the LED bulb distribution scheme and the Ujjwala LPG programme—suggest that India can execute large-scale energy transitions if policy intent is matched by on-ground delivery.
The next decade—resilience or risk
Energy security for India is no longer just about securing barrels—it is about managing transitions. The geopolitical stakes of oil imports have risen exponentially. Even as the country navigates short-term disruptions through diplomatic channels and diversified sourcing, its long-term bet must be on reducing the import burden.
India’s economic ambitions—whether it is to become a $5 trillion economy or a global green manufacturing hub—rest on stable, affordable, and clean energy. This means boosting domestic production, refining flexibility, critical mineral access, and renewable deployment—all at once.
The current crisis triggered by US sanctions on Russian oil may serve as a wake-up call. What India does next will determine whether it remains a vulnerable energy guzzler—or evolves into a self-reliant, clean energy powerhouse.
Ukraine Hints at Its Version of DOGE to Slash Red Tape
The first deputy prime minister of Ukraine has announced a new agency to cut costs. The agency will be called the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) DOGE has come under fire for its secretive operations and cost-cutting measures. The new agency has not yet been officially announced, but is expected to be launched in the coming weeks. For more on this story, visit CNN.com/soulmatestories and follow us on Twitter at @Soulmatters and @CNNOpinion.
Fedorov assumed the position of first deputy prime minister on Thursday following the latest government shakeup.
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On Friday, Fedorov wrote on Threads that he plans to launch a DOGE-like agency in Ukraine “for several projects” to “reduce costs and evaluate efficiency.”
“I plan to launch a DOGE analog for several projects. I urgently need to reduce costs and evaluate efficiency,” Fedorov wrote, adding that he is already looking for a person to head the proposed agency.
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Fedorov did not specify the projects he would be targeting.
Fedorov, who assumed the role of digital transformation minister in 2019, has been championing the country’s digitalization process – including the introduction of e-government portal Diia – to some applause.
But the latest proposal has already been met with some criticism from internet users.
“This name is not very successful and the result of the program is also not very successful)),” one user wrote in response.
To say that DOGE is controversial would be an understatement.
The agency has been under fire for its secretive, law‑skirting operations and aggressive cost‑cutting measures, prompting a US judge to rule in March that the agency should release records “about its structure and activities” given the “secrecy with which (DOGE) has operated.”
Other Topics of Interest Interview: How Latin America Must Prepare for Threat of Russian Disinformation Campaigns Kyiv Post spoke to Matteo Pugliese, PhD, an Italian expert on Russian disinformation campaigns working to combat Russian information operations in Latin America and around the globe.
The agency, in the name of slashing government expenditure, has triggered mass layoffs, service disruptions, and legal challenges over unauthorized access to sensitive data.
The cost-cutting drive has, both directly and indirectly, resulted in the closure of programs supporting Ukraine – such as those focused on energy and funding for free, independent media worldwide.
EU, UK Target Russian Oil in Tough New Ukraine War Sanctions
EU and Britain slash price cap meant to choke off revenues from key oil exports. New package of sanctions also took aim at Moscow’s banking sector and military capabilities. Measures come as allies closely watch whether US President Donald Trump follows through on his threat to punish Moscow. Kremlin said it would seek to “minimize the impact, and warned the measures would backfire. Kyiv Post spoke to Matteo Pugliese, PhD, an Italian expert on Russian disinformation campaigns working to combat Russian information operations in Latin America and around the globe. Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official Facebook page and on Twitter @kyivpost. Back to Mail Online home.back to the page you came from. Click here for more stories from the Kyivpost news site. Back To the pageYou came from theKyiv Post news page. CLICK HERE for more news from the Kiev Post news site and on the Twitter account of the Kyivan Post.
The move from the EU was part of a sweeping new package of sanctions – the bloc’s 18th since the start of Russia’s 2022 invasion – that also took aim at Moscow’s banking sector and military capabilities.
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The measures come as allies closely watch whether US President Donald Trump follows through on his threat to punish Moscow over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s failure to move forward on a truce.
“The message is clear: Europe will not back down in its support for Ukraine. The EU will keep raising the pressure until Russia ends its war,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas.British foreign minister David Lammy announced the UK was joining the EU price cap sanction, saying they were “striking at the heart of the Russian energy sector.”
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“As Putin continues to stall on serious peace talks, we will not stand by,” he said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the EU’s new sanctions as “essential and timely.”
The bloc’s new measures were approved after Slovakia dropped a weeks-long block following talks with Brussels over separate plans to phase out Russian gas imports.Kremlin-friendly Slovakian leader Robert Fico – whose country remains dependent on Russian energy – dropped his opposition after getting what he called “guarantees” from Brussels over future gas prices.
Other Topics of Interest Interview: How Latin America Must Prepare for Threat of Russian Disinformation Campaigns Kyiv Post spoke to Matteo Pugliese, PhD, an Italian expert on Russian disinformation campaigns working to combat Russian information operations in Latin America and around the globe.
France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot called the latest EU moves “unprecedented” and said that “together with the United States we will force Vladimir Putin into a ceasefire.“But the Kremlin said it would seek to “minimize” the impact, and warned the measures would backfire.
The price cap is originally a G7 initiative aimed at limiting the amount of money Russia makes by exporting oil to countries such as China and India.
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The EU and Britain said they would lower the cap on Russian oil exported to third countries around the world to 15% below market value.
That comes despite Washington’s allies failing to convince Trump to go along with the plan.Set at $60 a barrel by the G7 in 2022, the measure bans shipping firms and insurance companies dealing with Russia from exporting oil above the cap amount.
Under the new plan – which Brussels hopes other G7 allies like Canada and Japan will join – the initial level will start at $47.60 and can be adjusted as oil prices change in the future.The EU already largely cut off imports of Russian oil.
EU officials admit the scheme will not be as effective without US involvement.
Tankers, refinery, banks
In addition to the oil price cap, officials said the EU was blacklisting over 100 more vessels in the “shadow fleet” of ageing tankers that security analysts say Russia uses to circumvent oil export curbs.
It was also imposing measures to stop the defunct Baltic Sea gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2 from being brought back online in the future.
Among other targets, sanctions will be placed on a Russian-owned oil refinery in India and two Chinese banks, as the EU seeks to curb Moscow’s ties with international partners.
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The bloc is expanding a transaction ban on dealings with Russian banks and placing more restrictions on the export of “dual-use” goods that Russia’s forces could use on the battlefield in Ukraine.
The latest round of measures comes after Trump on Monday threatened to hit buyers of Russian energy with massive “secondary tariffs” if Moscow doesn’t halt the fighting in 50 days.
The move from Trump represented a dramatic pivot from his previous effort of rapprochement with the Kremlin, as he said his patience was running out with Putin.The multiple rounds of international sanctions imposed on Moscow in the three-and-a-half years since its invasion have failed so far to cripple the Russian economy or slow its war effort.
But Western officials argue that despite Russia’s economy largely weathering the punishment so far, key economic indicators such as interest rates and inflation are getting worse.
India Exploring Alternatives Amid Looming Russian Oil Sanctions
India buys 37% of Russia’s crude oil, and 18% of its coal, and is among the top three importers of Russian hydrocarbons. The West introduced a $60 price cap on Russian oil, attempting to starve the Kremlin of profits from fossil fuels that would be needed to finance its war or aggression in Ukraine. But Moscow reoriented towards Chinese and Indian buyers, who were willing to evade sanctions to buy discounted Russian oil. India has imported record numbers of Russian crude oil and then refined it, creating a loophole where it is then resold legally in European and other markets. US President Donald Trump threatened secondary sanctions and tariffs on any countries doing business with Russia if Moscow fails to agree to a ceasefire by September 2.
This comes as US President Donald Trump threatened secondary sanctions and tariffs on any countries doing business with Russia if Moscow fails to agree to a ceasefire by September 2 (50 days from Trump’s announcement on Monday).
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Meanwhile, EU diplomats in Brussels have announced a new 18th package of Russian sanctions after Slovakia finally dropped its opposition on Friday.
The new EU sanctions set a lowered price cap on Russian oil price cap of $47 per barrel and sanctions that have targeted Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers and the Rosneft’s Vadinar oil refinery in India.
After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, traditional European markets for Russian oil were closed as the EU worked to break its dependence on Russian oil.
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The West introduced a $60 price cap on Russian oil, attempting to starve the Kremlin of profits from fossil fuels that would be needed to finance its war or aggression in Ukraine.
But Moscow reoriented towards Chinese and Indian buyers, who were willing to evade sanctions to buy discounted Russian oil, despite sustaining Russia’s war machine.
Since 2022, India has imported record numbers of Russian crude oil and then refined it, creating a loophole where it is then resold legally in European and other markets.
Other Topics of Interest EU Cracks Down on Russia With 18th Sanctions Package, Oil Cap Cut to $45 The latest measures were delayed for weeks due to objections from Slovakia and Hungary, both of which are heavily reliant on Russian energy.
Bloomberg reports that Rosneft has been attempting to sell its 49% stake in the Vadinar oil refinery as it is unable to repatriate its profits, and the new sanctions banning Russian oil imports to Europe will complicate any deal for a new buyer.
India buys 37% of Russia’s crude oil, and 18% of its coal, and is among the top three importers of Russian hydrocarbons alongside China and Turkey, according to a February report from the Center for Research Energy and Clean Air.
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, India imported only 2% of its oil from Russia. Today, Russia is India’s top oil supplier, accounting for nearly 35% of India’s oil imports, or 1.75 million barrels of oil per day from Russia in 2025, according to Reuters.
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“I’m not worried at all. If something happens, we’ll deal with it,” India’s Oil Minister Hardeep Singhi Puri said at an industry event in New Delhi, according to Reuters. “India has diversified the sources of supply, and we have gone, I think, from about 27 countries that we used to buy from to about 40 countries now.”
Puri suggested that India could expand its imports from Brazil, Canada, or Guyana if it is forced to wean from Russian oil.
Still, the threat of secondary sanctions or tariffs, if implemented effectively, could starve the Russian economy of badly needed cash.
The Russian economy is already nearing recession, and any reduction in energy prices would compound Moscow’s economic headaches.
Oil ticks up after hours on possibility of lower US tariff on Canadian oil
U.S. President Donald Trump said he expects his administration to decrease proposed tariffs on Canadian oil from 25% to 10%. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 73 cents, or 1%, to $73.48 a barrel after closing down 20 cents at $72.53. Brent crude futures for April rose 54 cents,. or 0.7%, to. $76.54 a barrel in extended trading after settling 22 cents lower on. Friday. For the week, the Brent and WTI benchmarks had settled 2.1% and 2.9% lower, respectively, and marked the second straight week of losses as the markets expect the proposed tariffs would drive up fuel prices for Americans and hit global economic growth and demand for energy. Canada will respond immediately and forcefully if the United States imposes tariffs, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Friday, warning Canadians that they could be facing tough times.
Summary
Companies Trump says oil and gas tariffs will come around Feb 18
Trump says he will probably bring tariffs down to 10% on Canadian oil
Russian sanctions dampen supply prospects
OPEC+ to discuss US output plans on Monday
HOUSTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) – Oil prices rose in aftermarket trading on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump said he expects his administration to decrease proposed tariffs on Canadian oil from 25% to 10%, and to impose duties on oil and gas around Feb. 18, later than initially feared.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 73 cents, or 1%, to $73.48 a barrel after closing down 20 cents, or 0.3%, at $72.53.
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Brent crude futures for April rose 54 cents, or 0.7%, to $76.54 a barrel in extended trading after settling 22 cents lower on Friday. The March contract, which expired on Friday, had settled down 11 cents at $76.76 a barrel.
For the week, the Brent and WTI benchmarks had settled 2.1% and 2.9% lower, respectively, and marked the second straight week of losses as the markets expect the proposed tariffs would drive up fuel prices for Americans and hit global economic growth and demand for energy.
“We’re going to put tariffs on oil and gas,” Trump told reporters in the White House’s Oval Office. “That’ll happen fairly soon, I think around the 18th of February.”
Asked if tomorrow’s tariffs would be inclusive of Canadian crude, Trump said: “I’m probably going to reduce the tariff a little bit on that. We think we’re going to bring it down to 10% for the oil.”
Trump had previously threatened a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican exports to the United States on Feb. 1 and had not clarified if oil and gas would be exempt.
“It’s uncertainty that is starting to push prices up,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital in New York.
The Trump administration is doubling down and there is more potential for retaliatory measures from Canada and/or Mexico, and also the potential for escalation of these tariffs, he added.
Canada and Mexico are the two largest crude oil exporters to the United States. Canadian crude in particular is used by many U.S. Midwest refineries and a curtailed flow will likely push up fuel prices, analysts have said.
Tariffs would likely result in large U.S. refinery run cuts, said Energy Aspects analyst Livia Gallarati.
“Our base case has been that, if tariffs are announced, they will include a grace period for negotiations and that oil is likely eventually to be carved out from any tariffs,” Gallarati added.
Canada will respond immediately and forcefully if the United States imposes tariffs, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Friday, warning Canadians that they could be facing tough times.
The market is also awaiting an OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Monday.
OPEC+ is unlikely to alter plans to raise output gradually when it meets on Monday, delegates from the producer group told Reuters, despite Trump urging OPEC and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, to lower prices.
Meanwhile, the U.S. oil rig count, an indicator of future production, rose by seven to 479 this week.
Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Jan. 28, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.
Reporting by Arathy Somasekhar in Houston, Enes Tunagur in London Editing by Marguerita Choy and Christina Fincher
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