Transportation Iran conflict, holiday travel impacting Mass. gas prices The average price for gas in Massachusetts currently stands at $3.09 per gallon, a 10 cent jump from nine days ago. A pump at J.D. Auto Center in Brookline. David L. Ryan/The Boston Globe

Gas prices in Massachusetts experienced a notable uptick this past week during the brief conflict between Israel and Iran. Coupled with the upcoming travel weekend, prices could see another increase — but an expert said drivers shouldn’t panic.

The average price for gas in the state stands at $3.09 per gallon, a 10 cent jump from nine days ago, said AAA Northeast senior spokesperson Mark Schieldrop. Around the same time in 2024, gas prices were at $3.44 per gallon.

Schieldrop said the difference between last year and now has been the “really strong inventories of gasoline.”

“The gasoline that we have in storage that serves our region has been generally above what we had last year and very close to the five year average,” he said. “Demand through most of the year had been relatively soft, so supply was really outpacing demand through most of the spring and early summer.”

How international conflicts affect gas

Prices started to increase beginning June 13 when Israel struck one of Iran’s nuclear facilities, resulting in a brief exchange of attacks that also saw U.S. involvement. Reports indicated Wednesday that a ceasefire between the countries is tentatively expected to hold.

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Oil prices, once at $10 per barrel, are back to where they were before the attacks began, Schieldrop said. Gas prices may take some time to reflect this change.

“I don’t know if prices will necessarily go back down, and retail prices will give up the nine cents that they gained over the past week, but certainly there’s less momentum behind the price increases, so we may see prices pretty much level off,” he said.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Massachusetts saw double digit increases week after week, Schieldrop said. It stretched to $5.048 per gallon in June, the highest retail gas price ever recorded in the state, according to AAA.

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Russia produced over 10 million barrels of oil per day and held 11% of the world’s oil supply in 2023, behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, according to the Energy Information Administration. Comparatively, Iran held 4% of the total oil share and produced close to 4 millions barrels of oil per day.

“It’s a decent amount, but it’s not enough to really move entire markets, and most of that oil goes to China and other countries in Southeast Asia,” Schieldrop said. “We’re not really dependent on Iranian oil at all.”

Will holiday travel affect gas?

The Transportation Security Administration said it expects to screen more than 18.5 million airport goers between July 1 and July 7. From June 28 to July 6, AAA said it anticipates 61.6 million people will travel by car, the highest volume of travelers on record.

Schieldrop said prices typically increase steadily as the middle of summer approaches, but because there is such a strong gas supply he said he believes prices will not increase drastically.

“Don’t be alarmed if prices continue to climb over the next couple of weeks,” he said. “Generally speaking, I think most market analysts are anticipating a little bit of price increase as we approach the holiday period.”

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Schieldrop’s suggestion for Fourth of July travelers is to avoid gas stations near rest stops, as its prices tend to be higher. He also suggested drivers consider their fuel efficiency: tire pressure, car maintenance, and following speed limits can all affect how much gas a driver can burn.

“There’s endless research that shows that speeding and driving aggressively doesn’t really get you to your destination much faster at all,” Schieldrop said. “You can save money, too, just by staying cool behind the wheel, even if it’s hot.”