
Iran eyes closure of Strait of Hormuz, a crucial choke point for the world’s oil supply
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Diverging Reports Breakdown
Oil prices latest: Ships hit by ‘electronic interference’ in Strait of Hormuz
The Joint Maritime Information Center issued the alert amid fears that Iran could seek to disrupt oil shipping in retaliation against US strikes. It warned that ships are already being hit by “persistently higher levels of electronic interference”, affecting satellite navigation systems. Iran could soon close the Strait, with its parliament approving a motion to close the tanker route in response to the US air strikes. However, the final decision rests with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. It comes after supertankers performed U-turns in the Strait amid uncertainty over how Iran will retaliate against the US strikes on its nuclear sites.
The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), a global maritime body, issued the alert amid fears that Iran could seek to disrupt oil shipping in retaliation against US strikes.
It has warned that ships are already being hit by “persistently higher levels of electronic interference”, affecting satellite navigation systems.
It said that Iran could soon close the Strait, with its parliament approving a motion to close the tanker route in response to the US air strikes. However, it noted that the final decision rests with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
The body said: “The JMIC, advised by official channels, assesses an elevated threat and risk for shipping. This is attributed to significant regional conflict, uncertainty of Iranian State and non-State actors and mixed messaging.
“JMIC recommends the shipping industry remain vigilant to the changing security environment and have threat and risk mitigation plans at-the-ready.”
It comes after supertankers performed U-turns in the Strait amid uncertainty over how Iran will retaliate against US strikes on its nuclear sites.
Six of the giant vessels, some capable of carrying 2m barrels of crude, turned back after entering the crucial trade route over the last 24 hours, according to vessel tracking data from MarineTraffic.
Three of the ships – named the Coswisdom Lake, South Loyalty and Damsgaard – eventually made second U-turns and headed through the Strait today.
On Sunday, Greece’s shipping ministry warned that the country’s owners should think twice about using the route.
Meanwhile two large Japanese shipping companies said they will cut exposure to the strait, where a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies pass through.
Oil briefly surged to five-month highs in the first trading session following the US intervention but prices have since steadied.
Analysts have warned the Iran conflict has created a “clear and present risk of energy attacks” that could stoke inflation in the West.
RBC Capital Markets said Iran has a series of options for how it could disrupt the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route, which carries a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.
Analyst Helima Croft said it is not a “full closure or nothing” scenario, adding “multiple security experts contend that Iran has the ability to strike individual tankers and key ports with missiles and mines”.
Read the latest updates below.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital route for oil. Closing it could backfire on Iran
If Iran blocked the strait, oil prices could shoot as high as $120-$130 per barrel. The U.S. imported only about 7% of its oil from Persian Gulf countries through strait in 2024. China, India, Japan and South Korea get 47% of their seaborne oil from the Gulf. About 20 million barrels of oil per day, or around 20% of the world’s oil consumption, passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024; most of that oil goes to Asia. The strait is only 33 kilometers (21 miles) wide at its narrowest point, but deep enough and wide enough to handle the world’s largest crude oil tankers. It’s the most important chokepoint due to the large volumes of crude oil that pass through it due to its position in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It could also be used to fire missiles from its Persian Gulf shore, as Yemen has done in the Red Sea and Red Sea. The war between Israel and Iran could retaliate by trying to close the Strait, which boasts a fast-attack fleet of boats and missiles.
U.S. use of force to reopen the strait would likely be supported by Europe and “even unofficially by China,” he said. “Iran’s navy would probably get destroyed in a matter of hours or days.”
A price spike “wouldn’t last very long” and the strait would likely be reopened “very fast,” said Kpler’s Falakshahi.
Any price spike would probably not last. One big reason: Analysts expect that the U.S. Navy would intervene to keep the strait open. In the 1980s, U.S. warships escorted Kuwaiti oil tankers through the strait to protect them against Iranian attacks during the Iran-Iraq war.
And it would mean blocking Oman’s territorial waters, offending a country that has served as a mediator between the U.S. and Iran.
Closure would hit China, Iran’s largest trading partner and only remaining oil customer, and harm its oil-exporting Arab neighbors, who are at least officially supporting it in its war with Israel.
Closing the strait would cut off Iran’s own oil exports. While Iran does have a new terminal under construction at Jask, just outside the strait, the new facility has loaded oil only once and isn’t in a position to replace the strait, according to Kpler analysts.
U.S. oil customers would feel the impact of the higher prices but would not lose much supply. The U.S. imported only about 7% of its oil from Persian Gulf countries through the strait in 2024, according to the USEIA. That was the lowest level in nearly 40 years.
Asia would be directly impacted because 84% of the oil moving through the strait is headed for Asia; top destinations are China, India, Japan and South Korea. China gets 47% of its seaborne oil from the Gulf. China, however, has an oil inventory of 1.1 billion barrels, or 2 1/2 months of supply.
That would deal an inflationary shock to the global economy — if it lasted. Analysts think it wouldn’t.
If Iran blocked the strait, oil prices could shoot as high as $120-$130 per barrel, at least temporarily, said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analyst at Kpler, in an online webinar Sunday.
That’s because the pipelines that could be used to carry the oil on land, such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, they don’t have nearly enough capacity. “Most volumes that transit the strait have no alternative means of exiting the region,” according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
While some global oil chokepoints can be circumvented by taking longer routes that simply add costs, that’s not an option for most of the oil moving through the strait.
Oil that passes through the strait comes from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, and Bahrain, while major supplies of liquefied natural gas come from Qatar. At its narrowest point, the sea lanes for tankers lie in Omani waters, and before and after that cross into Iranian territory.
The strait connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It’s only 33 kilometers (21 miles) wide at its narrowest point, but deep enough and wide enough to handle the world’s largest crude oil tankers.
Here is a look at the waterway and its impact on the global economy:
About 20 million barrels of oil per day, or around 20% of the world’s oil consumption, passed through the strait in 2024. Most of that oil goes to Asia.
Iran’s main naval base at Bandar Abbas is on the north coast of the strait. It could also fire missiles from its long Persian Gulf shore, as its allies, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, have done in the Red Sea.
The Strait of Hormuz is between Oman and Iran, which boasts a fleet of fast-attack boats and thousands of naval mines as well as missiles that it could use to make the strait impassable, at least for a time.
The U.S. military’s strike on three sites in Iran over the weekend has raised questions about how its military might respond.
The war between Israel and Iran has raised concerns that Iran could retaliate by trying to close the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil chokepoint due to the large volumes of crude that pass through it every day.
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Explosions boomed in Qatar on Monday night as witnesses said they saw what appeared to be missiles in the skies over the country.
There was no immediate acknowledgment from Qatari authorities of any attack.
The reports emerged as Qatar closed its airspace amid Iranian threats to retaliate against the United States over its bombing early Sunday of three Iranian nuclear sites.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Israel on Monday expanded its war against Iran to include targets associated with the country’s struggling theocracy, striking the gate of a Tehran prison notorious for holding political activists and hitting the headquarters of the military force that suppressed recent protests.
Meanwhile, Qatar, home to a major base for U.S. forces and a major regional airline, temporarily closed its airspace in the evening as a precaution amid threats of Iranian retaliation, the Foreign Ministry said. The closure came several hours after the U.S. and United Kingdom urged their citizens in the energy-rich nation to shelter in place without elaborating.
In the past, Iran has threatened American forces at Al Udeid Air Base, which hosts the forward headquarters of the U.S. military’s Central Command. Qatar, across the Persian Gulf from Iran, maintains diplomatic relations with Iran and shares a massive offshore natural gas field with Tehran.
Earlier in the day, plumes of thick smoke rose over Tehran, Israel was attacked with yet another barrage of Iranian missiles and drones. The persistent fire has become a reality for civilians in both countries since Israel started the war to target Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program.
On the 11th day of the conflict, Israel said it attacked “regime targets and government repression bodies in the heart of Tehran,” but Israeli officials insisted they did not seek the overthrow of Iran’s government, their archenemy since the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The Israeli military warned Iranians that it would continue to attack military sites around Tehran over “the coming days” as its focuses has shifted to symbolic targets as well. The military issued the warning on the social platform X, though Iranians are struggling to access the outside world as an internet shutdown has crippled the country.
The latest strikes unfolded only hours after President Donald Trump openly raised the possibility himself after just a day earlier inserting America into the war with its unprecedented stealth-bomber strike on three Iranian nuclear sites.
“If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change???” he asked on his Truth Social website.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt later described Trump as “simply raising a question.” However, suggestions of overthrowing the Iranian government drew new anger from Tehran, which insists it will not negotiate at this time and is threatening to retaliate directly against either American troops or interests in a Mideast already inflamed by the still-raging Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.
In the Tehran strikes, Israel blew open a gate at Evin prison. Iranian state television shared black-and-white surveillance footage of the strike at the facility known for holding dual nationals and Westerners often used by Iran as bargaining chips in negotiations with the West.
Evin also has specialized units for political prisoners run by the paramilitary, all-volunteer Revolutionary Guard, which answers only to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The facility is the target of both U.S. and European Union sanctions.
There were no immediate reports of casualties in Iran or significant damage, though the semiofficial Tasnim news agency said there had been a power cut reported outside of Tehran following the Israeli strikes.
Iranian state television also aired footage it described as being shot inside Evin, with prisoners under control inside the facility. However, the Washington-based Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran expressed worry about the condition of prisoners there.
“Many families of current detainees have expressed deep concern about the safety and condition of their loved ones held inside the prison,” it said.
Earlier Monday, Iranian Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi, the chief of joint staff of armed forces, warned Washington that its strikes had given Iranian forces a “free hand “ to “act against U.S. interests and its army.”
Tens of thousands of American troops are based in the Middle East, many in locations within range of short-range Iranian missiles.
The Israeli military also confirmed it struck roads around Iran’s Fordo enrichment facility to obstruct access to the site. The underground site was one of those hit in Sunday’s attack by the United States on three nuclear facilities. The Israeli military did not elaborate.
“The Iranian dictator will be punished with full force for attacking the Israeli home front,” Israel’s Defense Ministry said.
According to an Israeli official familiar with the government’s strategy, Israel is targeting these sites to put pressure on the Iranian administration but is not actively seeking to topple it. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal government deliberations.
In Vienna, the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog said he expected there to be heavy damage at the Fordo facility following Sunday’s U.S. airstrike there with sophisticated bunker-buster bombs.
With the strikes Sunday on Iranian nuclear sites, the United States inserted itself into Israel’s war, prompting fears of a wider regional conflict. Iran said the U.S. had crossed “a very big red line” with its risky gambit to strike the three sites with missiles and 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs.
Several Iranian officials, including Atomic Energy Organization of Iran spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi, have claimed Iran removed nuclear material from targeted sites ahead of time.
Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the agency’s board of governors Monday that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi informed him on June 13 that Iran would “adopt special measures to protect nuclear equipment and materials.”
“I indicated that any transfer of nuclear material from a safeguarded facility to another location in Iran must be declared,” Grossi said, without saying whether Iran had responded.
Iran described its Monday attack on Israel as a new wave of its “Operation True Promise 3,” saying it was targeting the Israeli cities of Haifa and Tel Aviv, according to Iranian state television.
Explosions were also heard in Jerusalem, possibly from air defense systems in action, and Israel’s Magen David Adom emergency rescue service said there had been no reports of injuries.
In Israel, at least 24 people have been killed and more than 1,000 wounded in the war. Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 950 people and wounded 3,450 others, according to the Washington-based group Human Rights Activists.
The group, which has provided detailed casualty figures from Iranian unrest such as the protests surrounding the death of Masha Amini in 2022, said of those killed, it identified 380 civilians and 253 security force personnel.
The U.S. described its attack on the Fordo and Natanz enrichment facilities, as well as the Isfahan nuclear site, as a one-off to take out Iran’s nuclear program, but Trump has warned of additional strikes if Tehran retaliates.
Mousavi described the American attacks as violating Iran’s sovereignty and being tantamount to invading the country, the state-run IRNA news agency reported.
Russia is one of Iran’s closest allies and on Monday, President Vladimir Putin said after meeting in Moscow with Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, that they had explored “how we can get out of today’s situation.”
Putin called the Israeli and American attacks on Iran an “absolutely unprovoked aggression.”
Iran, which insists its nuclear program is for civilian purposes only, previously agreed to limit its uranium enrichment and allow international inspectors access to its nuclear sites under a 2015 deal with the U.S., France, China, Russia, Britain and Germany in exchange for sanctions relief.
But after Trump pulled the U.S. unilaterally out of the deal during his first term, Iran began enriching uranium up to 60% — a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90% — and restricting access to its nuclear facilities.
Lidman reported from Tel Aviv, Israel. Associated Press writers Josef Federman in Jerusalem, Elise Morton in London, Geir Moulson in Berlin, Ella Joyner in Brussels and Stephanie Liechtenstein in Vienna contributed to this report.
In this photo released on Monday, June 23, 2025, by Iranian army press service, Iran’s army commander-in-chief Gen. Amir Hatami, center, accompanied by high ranked army commanders, speaks in a video call with top commanders of the army, in Zolfaghar central headquarters, Iran, as portraits of the late revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini, left, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hang on the wall. (Iranian Army Press Service via AP)
CORRECTS TO SAY THERE WAS NO SIREN AT THE TIME – People take shelter in an underground metro station as a precaution against possible Iran missile attacks in Tel Aviv, Israel, Sunday, June 22, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
People enter bomb shelter a synagogue’s bomb shelter as air raid sirens warn of incoming Iranian strikes in Haifa, Israel, Monday, June 23, 2025. (AP Photo/Baz Ratner)
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian attends a protest following the U.S. attacks on nuclear sites in Iran, in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, June 22, 2025. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
People take shelter in an underground metro station as air raid sirens warn of incoming strikes by Iran, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Sunday, June 22, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
In this photo released on Monday, 23, 2025, by Iranian army press service, Iran’s army commander-in-chief Gen. Amir Hatami, center, accompanied by high ranked army commanders, speaks in a video call with top commanders of the army, in Zolfaghar central headquarters, Iran, as portraits of the late revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini, left, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hang on the wall. (Iranian Army Press Service via AP)
Iran-Israel conflict: Oil up still after swing to 5-month high – why it matters to UAE
Oil prices jumped amid worries that the region’s turmoil could disrupt oil flows. Brent crude hit $81.40 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose to $78.40—levels not seen since January. Prices cooled off slightly by midday but still ended the session up around 1%. If Iran attempts to block or delay oil tankers, prices could spike instantly. If half the oil flow through the Strait were halted for a month, Brent could temporarily jump to $110 per barrel. Still, analysts say a full blockade is unlikely—because Iran also depends on that route to export its own oil. Closing it off would hurt its own economy significantly. For UAE consumers and businesses, that means keeping an eye on global news, especially involving oil routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
For the UAE—where fuel prices are adjusted monthly and influenced by global oil trends— these price swings can impact everything from petrol costs to airfare and shipping over time.
Iran is OPEC’s third-largest oil producer, so any disruption from the country naturally rattles energy markets. Adding to the tension, Iran warned that the US strikes had widened the scope of its military response, while China said the conflict risked going “out of control.”
The surge followed a weekend of dramatic developments: the US joined Israel in launching attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, including key sites like Fordow. In response, Iran threatened to expand its list of military targets, calling the US President a “gambler” for intervening in the region.
At one point, Brent crude hit $81.40 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose to $78.40—levels not seen since January. Prices cooled off slightly by midday but still ended the session up around 1%.
Prices jumped amid worries that the region’s turmoil could disrupt oil flows, but quickly swung back and forth as traders tried to gauge how bad things could get.
“All eyes remain on the Strait of Hormuz and whether Iran will seek to disrupt tanker traffic,” said Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank. Even a perceived threat could delay shipments and push prices sharply higher, he added.
Still, analysts say a full blockade is unlikely—because Iran also depends on that route to export its own oil. Closing it off would hurt its own economy significantly.
Goldman Sachs estimates that if half the oil flow through the Strait were halted for a month, Brent could temporarily jump to $110 per barrel.
At the heart of the tension is the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes. If Iran attempts to block or delay oil tankers, prices could spike instantly.
“Even without a direct shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, higher shipping costs and insurance premiums could lift energy prices in a more sustained way.”
“The geopolitical risk premium is fading, as so far there has been no supply disruptions,” said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS. “But as it’s unclear how the conflict might evolve, market participants are likely to maintain a risk premium for now. So prices are set to stay volatile in the near term.”
Oil prices may not have surged uncontrollably yet, but the mood in the markets is anything but calm. For UAE consumers and businesses, that means keeping an eye on global news, especially involving oil routes like the Strait of Hormuz, even if local supplies remain steady.
Justin Varghese Your Money Editor
Justin is a personal finance author and seasoned business journalist with over a decade of experience. He makes it his mission to break down complex financial topics and make them clear, relatable, and relevant—helping everyday readers navigate today’s economy with confidence. Before returning to his Middle Eastern roots, where he was born and raised, Justin worked as a Business Correspondent at Reuters, reporting on equities and economic trends across both the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions.
Middle East conflict pushes Michigan gas to highest prices this year
Petroleum analysts said Sunday they expect oil and gasoline prices to rise. Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz, an important oil chokepoint. More than 72.2 million Americans are expected to travel during the week of the holiday. The nationwide average for regular unleaded gasoline was $3.22 a gallon, up 8 cents from a week ago, according to AAA, in Michigan, it was $ 3.29, up 20 cents from last week, but still less than a year ago, it said. The head of petroleum analysis at Gas Buddy, Patrick De Haan, challenged gas price doomsayers on social media, predicting that prices would go up, but not surge and likely would remain below $4 a gallon. But Bloomberg news reported two supertankers, each capable of shipping about two million barrels of crude oil, have turned around as a result of concerns Iran could close the passage.
Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz, an important oil chokepoint.
More than 72.2 million Americans to travel during the week of the holiday.
A day after America bombed three Middle East nuclear facilities, petroleum analysts said Sunday that they expect oil and gasoline prices to rise, but by how much, just a week before the Independence Day travel period, mostly depends on Iran’s response.
“Drivers across Michigan are seeing the highest gas prices so far this year,” Adrienne Woodland, spokeswoman for AAA, said. “Pump prices will likely face upward pressure if crude oil prices continue to rise.”
Iran has vowed retaliation, with Iranian state media has reported that Iran’s parliament has endorsed a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz which, if it that happens, it could send oil — and gas — prices soaring.
Sunday, the nationwide average for regular unleaded gasoline was $3.22 a gallon, up 8 cents from a week ago, according to AAA. In Michigan, it was $3.29, up 20 cents from a week ago, but still less than the $3.52 a gallon that gas was averaging a year ago.
Communities throughout the state with the highest average gas prices included, Ann Arbor, at $3.33 a gallon; Grand Rapids, $3.30, and metro Detroit, $2.29; the lowest, Marquette, $3.03; Traverse City, $3.21, and Benton Harbor, $3.23.
But assuming Middle East oil continues to flow, Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at Gas Buddy, challenged gas price doomsayers on social media, predicting that prices would go up, but not surge and likely would remain below $4 a gallon.
In another post, De Haan noted that “all eyes” are on Iran’s response.
The Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman, is an important oil chokepoint with about a fifth of the global petroleum consumption running through it. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has warned shutting it, even briefly, could increase world energy prices.
Some question whether Iran is in a position to carry out its threats.
Maersk, a Danish shipping company, said Sunday its vessels will continue to sail through the strait. The company added it will “monitor the security risk to our specific vessels” and is “ready to re-evaluate this based on information available.”
But Bloomberg news reported two supertankers, each capable of shipping about two million barrels of crude oil, have turned around as a result of concerns Iran could close the passage.
Last week, as Trump weighed U.S. strikes, gas prices were on the rise with U.S. oil prices hovered near a five-month high, which pushed gas prices up. West Texas Intermediate, a grade of crude oil, shot up more than 20%, to about $75 a barrel.
Just days ahead of the strike, U.S. Oil & Gas Association President Tim Stewart predicted to Fox News gasoline prices could increase by Independence Day up by 20 or 30 cents a gallon.
Meanwhile, there’s also increased holiday travel, also could increase prices.
AAA is forecasting more than 72.2 million Americans to travel domestically, between next Saturday and the Sunday after the Fourth of July, an increase of 1.7 million, about 3%, more travelers than last year, and 7 million more than in 2019, before the pandemic.
Of those, more than 2.6 million are expected to be from Michigan.
“Independence Day is one of the most popular times for travel, with Americans eager to take advantage of summer vacation opportunities,” Debbie Haas, vice president of AAA Travel said. “This year, we’re seeing strong demand for road trips, flights, and cruises, especially with the holiday falling on a Friday.”
Contact Frank Witsil: 313-222-5022 or fwitsil@freepress.com.
Potential closure of Strait of Hormuz sends jitters across Asia-Pacific
Brent crude trading at over $77 per barrel on June 23, its highest level since January. Strait of Hormuz is considered as the world’s most important oil chokepoint as 20 percent of daily global oil consumption passes through this critical waterway. Asia is “particularly vulnerable” because over 80 percent of its oil and gas imports are transported through the Strait ofHormuz. Asia’s heavy reliance on Gulf oil and. gas, coupled with limited alternative supply routes, makes it highly exposed to. disruptions, analysts say. The Middle East situation enters a new phase due to the US airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, analysts said. The region’s biggest economies, including China, India, Japan and South Korea, are vulnerable to oil supply disruptions that can cause inflationary pressures, they said. But analysts said most will face higher inflation and consequently rising oil prices consequently “given the pervasive pervasive energy inputs across all economic sectors, particularly transport and production”, they added. The impact of the oil supply disruption, however, is seen as uneven across Asian economies.
The possible closure Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important trade routes for crude shipments, is seen to weigh on Asia-Pacific’s growth outlook this year.
Located between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is considered as the world’s most important oil chokepoint as 20 percent of daily global oil consumption passes through this critical waterway.
Analysts said some of the region’s biggest economies, including China, India, Japan and South Korea, rely on oil and gas sourced from the Gulf and are vulnerable to oil supply disruptions that can cause inflationary pressures.
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As tensions in the Middle East escalate following the United States’ direct airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, Iran’s parliament voted on June 22 to authorize the potential closure of Strait of Hormuz.
The news sent jitters across the global oil market with the Brent crude trading at over $77 per barrel on June 23, its highest level since January.
South Korean acting Finance Minister Lee Hyoung-il, citing growing uncertainty after the US military involvement in Israel’s military operation against Iran, has warned of heightened volatility in global financial and energy markets amid the escalating tensions in the Middle East, according to the official Yonhap news agency.
Lee said the government must be on high alert and closely monitor international energy prices and supply-demand dynamics.
At a Seoul meeting to monitor monthly exports, Moon Shin-hak, first vice-industry minister, said as the Middle East situation enters a new phase due to the US airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, “there are concerns about the impact on our exports and imports.”
Asian bourses were also hit, with Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 declining 0.13 percent, while South Korea’s Kospi index closed 0.24 percent lower. India’s benchmark Nifty 50 dropped 0.61 percent.
“Higher global crude oil prices could lead to some pick up in inflation and thereby slow down the world GDP growth,” said Michael Ricafort, chief economist of the Manila-based Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation.
This is a “big Asia problem”, according to Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at the French investment bank Natixis.
Garcia-Herrero said Asia is “particularly vulnerable” because over 80 percent of its oil and gas imports are transported through the Strait of Hormuz. She said the region’s heavy reliance on Gulf oil and gas, coupled with limited alternative supply routes, makes it highly exposed to disruptions.
“Closing the Strait of Hormuz is possible with the existing military capability of Iran, and whether they will take this highly disruptive step is a judgment call of the leaders,” said Henry Chan, distinguished visiting fellow at the Cambodia Center for Regional Studies.
“If they perceived that the US and Israel would not stop until there is a regime change, then they might push the situation to the edge,” Chan told China Daily.
Lakhvinder Singh, director of peace and security studies at The Asia Institute, a think tank in South Korea said, “We are entering uncharted territory — something like this has never happened in recent memory.”
Singh forecast that global oil prices could surge past $150 to $200 per barrel if and when the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Apart from higher fuel costs that would spike inflation across Asia, he said oil supply disruption “would almost certainly result in serious power shortage in most of East and South Asia”.
“If this occurs during summer months – when energy demand is at its peak – it could cause havoc in the economic and social stability of these countries,” Singh said.
The impact of the oil and gas supply disruption, however, is seen as uneven across Asian economies.
Yeah Kim Leng, professor of economics at Sunway University in Kuala Lumpur, noted that energy exporters like Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam may be able to mitigate the impact of oil and oil and gas supply disruptions as these countries can rely on their domestic supply.
But Yeah said most countries will face higher oil prices and consequently rising inflationary pressures “given the pervasive energy inputs across all economic sectors, particularly transport and electricity production”.
READ MORE: Teheran says ‘reserves all options’ to retaliate against US attacks
Wan Suhaimie Wan Mohd Saidie, head of economic research at Malaysia’s Kenanga Investment Bank, cited Bangladesh and Pakistan as two countries that have already experienced “a triple hit: growth slowdown, fiscal blowout (and) inflation spike” owing to high import dependency, low reserves and weak fiscal positions.
Singh said bigger economies have already taken some steps to protect their long-term interests. India has been diversifying its import sources, increasing its investment in Strategic Petroleum Reserves, and deepening its ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Japan and South Korea have been maintaining large oil stockpiles and investing in renewable and nuclear energy to reduce hydrocarbon dependence.
“So, the larger economies of the region are somewhat prepared. The core question, however, is about the smaller economies: how will they survive this ordeal?,” Singh said.
Contact the writers at prime@chinadailyapac.com