Iran turns to internal crackdown in wake of 12-day war
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Diverging Reports Breakdown
Iran Update, June 25, 2025
The Iranian regime is prioritizing regime security in the wake of the Iran-Israel War. The regime has arrested hundreds of Iranians, and it has focused its efforts on Kurdish areas. A leaked, low-confidence US intelligence assessment found that the US and Israeli strikes caused “moderate to severe” damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities. The destruction of the centrifuges and equipment inside does not necessarily require the collapse of the facility itself. A conclusive battle damage assessment of nuclear facilities will take time, given the buried nature of Iran”s nuclear sites and limited on-site access. The Iranian leadership suggested that Iran may not be willing to cooperate with various international organizations and treaties in the future, despite its historic and current non-adherence to such agreements. It is notable that the leaked US assessment reportedly relied in part on intelligence signals from Israel. The Israeli Atomic Energy Commission separately assessed that the U.S. strike on Fordow destroyed the site’s critical infrastructure and “rendered the enrichment facility inoperable”
Information Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish daily updates on the aftermath of the Iran-Israel war. This update will continue to cover the regime’s activities at home and abroad as it attempts to navigate the post-war environment.
Click here to see ISW-CTP’s interactive map showing the total strikes in Iran since June 12, as well as an interactive timelapse showing the strikes day-by-day.
Key Takeaways
A leaked, low-confidence US intelligence assessment found that the US and Israeli strikes caused “moderate to severe” damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, but that they did not “collapse” the facility. The destruction of the centrifuges and equipment inside does not necessarily require the collapse of the facility itself. A conclusive battle damage assessment of nuclear facilities will take time, given the buried nature of Iran’s nuclear sites and limited on-site access.
Senior Iranian leadership suggested that Iran may not be willing to cooperate with various international organizations and treaties in the future, despite Iran’s historic and current non-adherence to such agreements.
The Iranian regime is prioritizing regime security in the wake of the Iran-Israel War. The regime has arrested hundreds of Iranians, and it has focused its efforts on Kurdish areas.
Preliminary intelligence assessments suggest the US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities caused serious damage to the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP). The New York Times published a June 25 report on a leaked, low-confidence US intelligence assessment of the recent US strikes on the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.[1] The New York Times and other Western media outlets cite very little direct information from the report. Unspecified sources, in their characterization of the assessment, said that the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessed that the US and Israeli strikes.[2] Unspecified officials added that the findings indicated that US bunker-buster bombs sealed entrances to two unspecified nuclear sites but failed to “collapse their underground buildings.”[3]
The destruction of the centrifuges and equipment inside does not necessarily require the collapse of the facility itself. The Institute of Science and International Security, a nuclear nonproliferation think tank that has long studied the Iranian nuclear program, assessed that it was very likely the strikes destroyed or damaged most of the centrifuges at Fordow on the basis of the impact locations and the effects of the blast waves.[4] It is notable in the context of the leaked US assessments that the Institute did not assess the damage on the basis of whether facilities “collapsed.” This is consistent with claims by other unspecified officials to the New York Times, who said that the Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan nuclear facilities had all suffered “moderate to severe damage.”[5] CTP-ISW has no basis for forming an independent assessment of the damage from US and Israeli strikes at these three nuclear facilities.[6] Early Israeli assessments placed more confidence in the damage to enrichment facilities. The Israel Atomic Energy Commission separately assessed that the US strike on Fordow destroyed the site’s critical infrastructure and “rendered the enrichment facility inoperable.”[7] US President Donald Trump told reporters on June 25 that Israeli agents concluded that Fordow suffered ”total obliteration” after visiting the site, suggesting that Israeli assessments have been formed with intelligence collected by Israeli agents in Iran. [8]
A conclusive battle damage assessment of nuclear facilities will take time, given the buried nature of Iran’s nuclear sites and limited on-site access. A US nuclear weapons expert stated on June 24 that US and Israeli strikes likely destroyed 20,000 centrifuges at Natanz and Fordow and severely damaged weaponization infrastructure.[9] The expert stated that the early, low-confidence assessment ”focused too narrowly” on breakout timelines.[10] Breakout refers to the time required to enrich 90 percent enriched uranium (also known as weapons-grade uranium). Weaponization requires one to build nuclear weapons. Axios reported on June 25 that intercepted communications suggested Iranian military officials have delivered false situation reports to senior Iranian leaders to downplay the extent of the damage, citing an unspecified Israeli source.[11] This fact is notable because the leaked US intelligence assessment reportedly relied in part upon signals intelligence.[12]
Senior Iranian leadership suggested that Iran may not be willing to cooperate with various international organizations and treaties in the future, despite Iran’s historic and current non-adherence to such agreements. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi and other senior Iranian officials have suggested in recent days that Iran may reconsider its stance on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).[13] Araghchi stated that the agreement “failed” to protect Iran’s nuclear program despite years of Iran’s compliance with the NPT.[14] A May 2025 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) NPT Safeguards Agreement report found Iran’s cooperation with the IAEA ”less than satisfactory” and raised concerns about undeclared Iranian nuclear sites and material.[15] Iran has threatened to withdraw from the NPT repeatedly over the past several years, but has not done so yet.[16]
Iranian parliament passed a bill on June 25 to suspend all cooperation with the IAEA.[17] Iran’s parliamentary national security committee claimed on June 24 that the May 2025 IAEA report that accused Iran of failing to cooperate was inaccurate and served as a pretext for the Israeli air campaign. [18]The committee’s June 24 statement recommended that Iran suspend cooperation with the IAEA.[19] Iran has already restricted IAEA oversight, including by withdrawing the certifications of several inspectors in September 2023 and barring other top inspectors in November 2024.[20] Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf stated that Iran could resume cooperation with the IAEA following a report from Iran’s Atomic Energy Authority and the national security and foreign affairs committee.[21] The June 25 bill must be approved by Iran’s Guardian Council, whose members are appointed by the Iranian Supreme Leader, to be entered into law.
The head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammed Eslami, stated on June 24 that Iran is assessing the damage to its nuclear program and planning to resume operations.[22] Israel destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities and enrichment capacity with US support and killed key nuclear scientists who were critical to the development and weaponization of Iran’s program. The Institute for Science and Security assessed that US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran have ”effectively destroyed” Iran’s enrichment program and that it will take a ”long time” for Iran to restore its enrichment capabilities to pre-strike levels.[23] IRGC Major General Mohsen Rezaei stated during an interview on June 19 that Iran relocated its enriched material to a secure location to prevent it from being destroyed.[24] The Institute stated that Iran still retains stockpiles of 3 to 5 percent, 20 percent, and 60 percent enriched uranium.[25] The destruction of Iran’s enrichment capabilities will make enriching uranium from 60 percent to 90 percent much slower, however.
Trump stated on June 25 that the United States would not allow Iran to rebuild its uranium facilities and that he would be willing to strike Iran again to prevent it from doing so.[26] The United States and Iran have maintained their negotiating positions from before the conflict on Iranian uranium enrichment. Iranian Vice President Mohammed Reza Aref reiterated on June 25 that Iran will not negotiate on Iran‘s right to enrich uranium on Iranian territory.[27] The United States has maintained its demand for Iran to maintain zero uranium enrichment capabilities.[28] The United States and Iran are expected to meet the week of June 29 to discuss a potential nuclear deal.[29] US President Donald Trump suggested that a nuclear deal with Iran may not be necessary due to damage inflicted on the nuclear program.[30]
The Iranian regime has taken steps to securitize the country, which likely reflects the regime’s paranoia about Israeli infiltration and signals a shift to prioritization of counterintelligence. Iranian media reported that Iranian security forces have arrested at least 700 Iranians on political or security charges since the start of the Israel-Iran War on June 12.[31] The arrests include several individuals whom the regime characterized as “Mossad spies.”[32] Such arrests likely reflect Iranian recognition of the scale of Israeli infiltration and covert operations in Iran, which was revealed during Israel’s opening attacks on Israel. Three Iranian senior officials told Reuters that Iran is concerned about internal unrest, especially in Kurdish areas, and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Basij units have been put on alert.[33] One source said Iranian forces have deployed to Iran’s borders with Pakistan, Iraq, and Azerbaijan to prevent the infiltration of “terrorists.”[34] Large Iranian Kurdish separatist factions said that Iranian authorities have arrested several members of the Kurdish groups.[35] A member of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan–one of several large Iranian Kurdish separatist factions–said IRGC units deployed to schools in Kurdish areas of Iran and conducted house searches for suspects and weapons following Israeli airstrikes in Iran on June 12. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei recently appointed Brigadier General Mohammad Karami as the IRGC Ground Forces commander, which further illustrates the regime’s concerns about potential domestic unrest, given that Karami was previously involved in suppressing internal dissent.[36]
Iran’s efforts to securitize the country (and the particular focus on Kurdish areas) may reflect the regime’s concerns that Israel could exploit instability in Kurdish or minority areas to further infiltrate Iran. The Iranian regime has historically been concerned about unrest in Kurdish-dominated areas of northwestern Iran. A significant portion of the protests during the Mahsa Amini Protest movement in December 2022 occurred in cities in Tehran, Esfahan, Kurdistan, and West Azerbaijan provinces.[37] Kurdistan and West Azerbaijan provinces have a large Iranian Kurdish population that resonated with the protest movement. The recent arrests were reportedly concentrated in Kermanshah, Esfahan, Khuzestan, Fars, Lorestan, and Tehran provinces.[38] Iran has historically also accused Kurdish opposition groups and Israel of using Iraqi Kurdistan to facilitate operations into Iran. Iranian state media accused Kurdish opposition groups of helping Israel smuggle military equipment into Iran that Israel used in its January 2023 drone attack on a munitions factory in Esfahan, for example.[39]
IRGC-affiliated media confirmed on June 25 that the newly appointed Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Commander Major General Ali Shadmani died of his wounds from an Israeli airstrike in central Tehran.[40] The IDF announced that it killed Shadmani on June 17.[41] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Shadmani to command the headquarters after the IDF killed former Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Commander Major General Gholam Ali Rashid on June 13.[42] Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters is one of two entities the Khamenei relies on to command, control, and coordinate Iran’s three military branches.[43] It is responsible for joint and wartime operations.[44]
Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh arrived in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on June 25 in his first foreign visit since Israel began its air campaign on Iran.[45] Nasirzadeh will attend a two-day meeting for the defense ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) countries in Qingdao.[46] Iran’s strategic economic and defense ties with the PRC may offer a modicum of future relief for Iran as it attempts to rebuild military and economic infrastructure in the coming days and months. PRC-based entities have historically provided military or dual-use products to Iran, including shipping precursor material to support the replenishment of Iranian solid-fuel ballistic missile stockpiles.[47] The PRC also offers a critical economic lifeline for Iran by purchasing around 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports, and Iranian officials are likely eager to secure Iran’s economic partnership with the PRC in the aftermath of Israel’s recent strike campaign.[48] Nasirzadeh’s visit to the PRC follows recent reports that Iran has been unsatisfied with recent support from Russia during the Israel-Iran war.[49] Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23, reportedly to request Russian assistance for Iran via a delivered letter from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.[50]
The Houthis likely launched a drone targeting Israel on June 25, which is consistent with the Houthi drone and missile campaign that has targeted Israel in support of Gaza since November 2023. The IDF intercepted a drone that was “likely launched” from Yemen before it crossed into Israeli territory on June 25.[51] The Houthis have launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles targeting Israel since the Houthis began their campaign to enforce an economic blockade on Israel in November 2023.[52] The Houthis continued to attack Israel with several ballistic missiles and drones during the recent 12-day conflict in support of Iran.[53] The Houthis claimed that at least one of these attacks was conducted in coordination with Iran, though CTP-ISW has not observed evidence of this coordination.[54] The Houthis conducted their most recent drone attack on June 25 after the Israel-Iran ceasefire went into effect. Houthi spokesperson Mohammed al Bukhaiti told the Wall Street Journal on June 24 that the group ”is [not] bound by” the Israel-Iran ceasefire and that its military operations against Israel would continue ”until the aggression in Gaza stops.”[55]
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/us/politics/iran-nuclear-sites.html
[2] https://www.reuters.com/world/us-strikes-may-have-set-back-iran-nuclear-program-only-months-sources-say-2025-06-24/ ;
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/us/politics/iran-nuclear-sites.html
[3] https://x.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1937628881856380972 ;
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/us/politics/iran-nuclear-sites.html
[4] https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/post-attack-assessment-of-the-first-12-days-of-israeli-strikes-on-iranian-nuclear-facilities
[5] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/us/politics/iran-nuclear-sites.html
[6] https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/israel-iran-live-updates-irans-khamenei-punishment-israel?id=123109706&entryId=123196616&fbclid=IwY2xjawLI4mlleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFkMjNkWGVBVXRrdmVHTnpXAR4ARWopumpGErrjx9NJ1SzMWhXt2DsC-GbDlM3PNwtVQjQNp970IspuGFcEFg_aem_ZxIJo7LDQa-s9xMGRQ25_Q
[7] https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1937855370573079036 ;
[8] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/trump-israel-sent-agents-into-irans-fordo-nuclear-site-after-us-strikes/
[9] https://x.com/DAVIDHALBRIGHT1/status/1937617920508531159
[10] https://x.com/DAVIDHALBRIGHT1/status/1937617920508531159
[11] https://www.axios.com/2025/06/25/iran-nuclear-program-israel-damage-intelligence
[12] https://x.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1937628881856380972
[13] https://en.mehrnews dot com/news/233650/Iran-may-reconsider-stance-on-nuclear-program-NPT-Coop ; https://x.com/SaeedAzimi1772/status/1937876812589130005
[14] https://en.mehrnews dot com/news/233650/Iran-may-reconsider-stance-on-nuclear-program-NPT-Coop
[15] https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/31/middleeast/iran-nuclear-weapons-watchdog-report-intl
[16] https://www.ft.com/content/c73b99ec-cd3f-49be-8024-6faf369b58e1 ; https://en.mehrnews dot com/news/155490/Iran-to-be-forced-to-leave-NPT-under-West-s-pressure-envoy ; https://www.ft.com/content/6dda41ac-6020-11e8-9334-2218e7146b04
[17] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/25/irans-parliament-approves-bill-to-suspend-cooperation-with-iaea
[18] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/25/irans-parliament-approves-bill-to-suspend-cooperation-with-iaea ; https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/31/middleeast/iran-nuclear-weapons-watchdog-report-intl
[19] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/25/irans-parliament-approves-bill-to-suspend-cooperation-with-iaea
[20] https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/iran-withdraws-further-iaea-inspector-designations?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[21] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/25/irans-parliament-approves-bill-to-suspend-cooperation-with-iaea
[22] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-looking-restore-its-nuclear-industry-irans-nuclear-chief-says-2025-06-24/
[23] https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/post-attack-assessment-of-the-first-12-days-of-israeli-strikes-on-iranian-nuclear-facilities
[24] https://x.com/ariel_oseran/status/1935795058537583019
[25] https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/post-attack-assessment-of-the-first-12-days-of-israeli-strikes-on-iranian-nuclear-facilities
[26] https://x.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1937807149926695321
[27] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1404/04/04/3342486
[28] https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1937519347213222016
[29] https://www.axios.com/2025/06/25/trump-iran-meeting-nuclear-deal-israel
[30] https://www.axios.com/2025/06/25/trump-iran-meeting-nuclear-deal-israel
[31] https://www.hamshahrionline dot ir/news/958092/ ; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-turns-internal-crackdown-wake-12-day-war-2025-06-25/ ; https://x.com/Osint613/status/1937764451450810488
[32] https://www.hamshahrionline dot ir/news/958092/ ; https://www iribnews dot ir/fa/news/5500196/ ; https://www irna dot ir/news/85863471/ ; https://www irna ir/news/85862962/ ; https://en.mehrnews dot com/news/233279/5-Mossad-spy-arrested-in-Iran-s-Lorestan
[33] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-turns-internal-crackdown-wake-12-day-war-2025-06-25/
[34] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-turns-internal-crackdown-wake-12-day-war-2025-06-25/
[35] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-turns-internal-crackdown-wake-12-day-war-2025-06-25/
[36] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-special-report-strikes-on-iran-june-19-2025-evening-edition
[37] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/data-analysis-mahsa-amini-protest-movement
[38] https://www.iranintl.com/en/202506250530
[39] https://nournews dot ir/Fa/News/127294/%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1%DA%A9%D8%AA-%D8%B6%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%82%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%A8-%DA%A9%D9%8F%D8%B1%D8%AF%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%AC%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%B9-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D8%B1%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%87%DB%8C-%D9%88%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AA-%D8%AF%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%81%D9%87%D8%A7%D9%86
[40] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1404/04/04/3342626/
[41] https://x.com/IDF/status/1934863338732716074
[42] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1934857278898721093 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-israeli-strikes-iran-june-13-2025
[43] https://www.aei.org/articles/explainer-the-iranian-armed-forces/
[44] https://www.aei.org/articles/explainer-the-iranian-armed-forces/
[45] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-25/iran-s-defense-minister-visits-china-in-his-first-trip-since-war
[46] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-25/iran-s-defense-minister-visits-china-in-his-first-trip-since-war
[47] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-6-2025
[48] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-march-iranian-oil-imports-surge-us-sanctions-fears-2025-04-10/
[49] https://www.reuters.com/world/china/irans-supreme-leader-asks-putin-do-more-after-us-strikes-2025-06-23/
[50] https://www.reuters.com/world/china/irans-supreme-leader-asks-putin-do-more-after-us-strikes-2025-06-23/
[51] https://x.com/IAFsite/status/1937860615508472295
[52] https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2024/12/briefing-on-developments-related-to-houthi-attacks-on-israel.php ; https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-houthis-have-launched-40-missiles-320-drones-at-israel-since-start-of-war/
[53] https://x.com/MMY1444/status/1934111202919031167 ; https://x.com/MMY1444/status/1933913847972102526 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-16-2025-evening-edition ; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1933709446544285753 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1933563526682923342 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1933568664785088767 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-14-2025-evening-edition ; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-target-israel-with-ballistic-missiles-coordination-with-iran-2025-06-15/
[54] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-target-israel-with-ballistic-missiles-coordination-with-iran-2025-06-15/
[55] https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-us-latest-news/card/yemen-s-houthis-say-israel-iran-cease-fire-deal-doesn-t-include-them-lRzfEJLr94SuIMRcULJL?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAhHEcWWgoBsLr-rjsCCvMsuhrE7cm99oaNX0nRl1W7NryRD7OZoFxq1&gaa_ts=685c3a84&gaa_sig=PwEWZX6kEt6cPAt97rrK4HHZU68iosLnYMp4KzrfFH60cA7RgwGyW4zGUQCf8Cg-y99WXE7r6R14_sdGnJ7_mA%3D%3D
Iran’s Regime Responds to Military Losses with Repression and Belligerence
The Iranian regime is confronting an unprecedented combination of military, nuclear, and domestic crises. A series of targeted airstrikes has decimated Iran regime’s senior military and nuclear leadership, prompting a retaliatory suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Simultaneously, the regime has launched a nationwide crackdown on dissent, marked by mass arrests, desertions in the military, and escalating repression. At least 20 fatalities among senior and mid-ranking IRGC personnel, including: Hossein Salami – Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC. Ali Shamkhani, senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was also seriously injured in an airstrike targeting his residence. Mohammadreza Sedighi Saber, a sanctioned nuclear researcher previously tied to detonation systems and targeted by U.S. sanctions, was assassinated in Gilan Province. Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, was killed in coordinated attacks. The final approval for the bill now rests with the Supreme National Security Council.
Three-minute read
In the aftermath of a devastating conflict with Israel and U.S., the Iranian regime is confronting an unprecedented combination of military, nuclear, and domestic crises. A series of targeted airstrikes has decimated Iran regime’s senior military and nuclear leadership, prompting a retaliatory suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) by the regime’s parliament. Simultaneously, the regime has launched a nationwide crackdown on dissent, marked by mass arrests, desertions in the military, and escalating repression.
Suspending IAEA Cooperation
On Wednesday, Iran regime’s parliament passed a bill suspending the country’s cooperation with the IAEA. Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the agency of turning a blind eye to attacks on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
“The International Atomic Energy Agency, which refused to even marginally condemn the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, put its international credibility up for auction,” Ghalibaf said.
He declared that the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran would halt cooperation until the safety of the country’s nuclear facilities is ensured. The final approval for the bill now rests with regime’s Supreme National Security Council, according to the state-affiliated Nournews outlet.
War at Home: #Iran’s Prisons in Crisis Amid Regional Conflicthttps://t.co/TATMVpvKFn — NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 25, 2025
Massive Military and Nuclear Losses
The IRGC and Iranian state media have confirmed the elimination of several of its top military and nuclear figures during a series of high-precision strikes carried out prior to the ceasefire.
High-Ranking Military Casualties:
Hossein Salami – Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC
Mohammad Bagheri – Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces
Amir Ali Hajizadeh – IRGC Aerospace Force Commander
Gholam-Ali Rashid – Head of Khatam-al-Anbiya Central HQ
Mehdi Rabani, Gholamreza Mehrabi, Davoud Shekhiyan, Masoud Shanei, Saeed Izadi, Behnam Shahriari – Senior IRGC officials
Mahmoud Bagheri, Mohammad Bagher Taherpour, Mansour Safarpour, Masoud Tayeb, Khosrow Hassani, Javad Jarsara – Additional confirmed fatalities among IRGC officers
A key political figure, Ali Shamkhani, senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was also seriously injured in an airstrike targeting his residence.
Targeted Nuclear Experts:
At least nine nuclear scientists were also killed in coordinated attacks:
Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran
Mohammad-Mehdi Tehranchi, Akbar Matlabi-Zadeh, Saeed Borji, Amir-Hassan Faghihi, Abdolhamid Minoochehr, Mansour Asgari, Ahmadreza Zolfaghari Daryani, Ali Bakaei Karimi
In addition, Mohammadreza Sedighi Saber, a sanctioned nuclear researcher previously tied to detonation systems and targeted by U.S. sanctions, was assassinated in Gilan Province. He had direct links to sensitive nuclear programs.
NCRI Statement: Sudden and Forced Transfer of #Iranian Political Prisoner Ali Younesi to Unknown Locationhttps://t.co/lPsK9Yp128 — NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 19, 2025
Direct Strike on IRGC Regional Headquarters
On Monday, June 23, an Israeli airstrike destroyed the Imam Hassan Mojtaba IRGC Command Center in Karaj, Alborz Province—a critical hub in the regime’s military and suppression network. Internal regime sources confirmed at least 20 fatalities among senior and mid-ranking IRGC personnel, including:
Mojtaba Karami – Deputy IRGC Commander, Alborz
Akbar Enayati – Deputy Social Affairs Officer
Ali Torkashvand – Clerical Inspector
Gholam Ojani, Mohsen Kohkhel, Vali Rezazadeh, Saeed Sharifi – Lieutenant Colonels
Seyed Mojtaba Moinpour – Brigadier General
Ali Asgari, Davoud Zandiyeh, Reza Zamanzadeh, Mohammad Roshandel – Colonels
Seyed Mustafa Mirghaffari, Ali Javadipour – Captains
Ebrahim Nazari, Fatemeh Salehi, Davoud Dideban – IRGC/Basij members
Fardin Ebrahimi, Salar Mousavinejad – Conscripts
Gholamreza Souri – Basij member
Fatemeh Salehi – IRGC personnel
Shortly after, the IRGC’s Alborz command issued a statement identifying 14 more casualties from what it called a “brutal and inhumane” Israeli strike. These included:
Javad Izadi – conscript
Seyed Mojtaba Moinpour – brigadier general
Ali Javadipour and Seyed Mustafa Mirghaffari – captains
Reza Zamanzadeh, Mohammad Roshandel, Davoud Zandiyeh, Ali Asgari – colonels
Saeed Sharifi, Vali Rezazadeh – lieutenant colonels
Ebrahim Nazari – IRGC member
Davoud Dideban – civilian from Karaj
Fardin Ebrahimi, Salar Mousavinejad – conscripts
Authorities stated that full identification of victims would continue in coordination with the families. The death toll from the strike marks one of the deadliest blows to the IRGC in recent memory.
Post-War Crackdown and Rising Domestic Turmoil
Following the ceasefire, Iran is witnessing a surge in internal repression. According to Tasnim News Agency, at least 115 people have been arrested in Kermanshah Province alone for allegedly “disturbing security.” Further arrests were reported by the IRGC and police in Hamedan, Hormozgan, Fars (53 detainees), Gilan (36), and Zarand (11 arrested for anti-regime activities).
Simultaneously, reports from Farda News suggest a growing wave of disobedience within the ranks of Iran’s military and security forces. Incidents of desertion, refusal to follow orders, and personnel going into hiding have alarmed the regime. In response, the regime’s General Staff has issued sweeping new orders allowing commanders to use “the harshest possible measures” to suppress internal dissent and reestablish control. The original Farda News post was later taken down and is currently not available online.
Arrests for Espionage and Drone Activity
Multiple state media outlets and news agencies have reported the arrest of more than 700 individuals over the course of the 12-day war. Detainees were accused of offenses ranging from guiding drones, operating micro-drones, photographing sensitive sites, to leaking intelligence. According to the report, over 10,000 micro-drones were seized in Tehran alone. Human rights groups and opposition activists have denounced these arrests as a cover for mass repression, warning that the regime is using the wartime chaos to silence civil dissent.
The regime has lost several of its most influential military and nuclear figures, its command infrastructure has been directly hit, and its international nuclear commitments are now unraveling. Internally, a crisis of loyalty is gripping its security forces, while a sweeping wave of arrests signals the regime’s desperation to maintain control.
What lies ahead for Iran is uncertain—but the ground beneath the regime has undoubtedly shifted.
Iran Israel ceasefire highlights | June 25: Iran extends airspace closure amid fragile truce
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran on Tuesday. He warned that any further action would be a ‘major violation’ of the fragile ceasefire. Israel has accused Iran of violating the ceasefire by launching a missile, a claim that Tehran denied. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards confirmed that their final missile barrage on Israel was launched just minutes before the ceasefire began. Iran insisted it had not launched any missiles after the truce began and alleged that Israeli airstrikes continued for 90 minutes beyond the agreed ceasefire start time. Despite early breaches, there was a broad sense of relief both regionally and globally that a route to de-escalation had emerged.
Iran Israel war highlights: As the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds on Wednesday, the US has stated it will now move forward with the nuclear dela negotiations with Iran. However, despite US President Donald Trump’s warning to Iran and Israel regarding fresh attacks, explosions have been heard in Tehran as Israel claimed it intercepted drones likely shot from Iran. …Read More
Donald Trump on Tuesday urged Israel to halt its bombing campaign on Iran, warning that any further action would be a “major violation” of the fragile ceasefire he had announced just hours earlier.
Shortly before that, Trump told reporters he believed both Israel and Iran had breached the terms of the truce but maintained confidence that the ceasefire would hold. “I think they both violated it,” he said while leaving the White House for the NATO summit in The Hague.
The fragile ceasefire followed a tense night in which Iran launched missiles at a US air base in Qatar, in retaliation for American strikes over the weekend.
According to Israeli media reports, Trump held a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday, just hours after the truce was declared. During the conversation, Netanyahu reportedly told Trump that he “was unable to cancel the attack and that it was needed because Iran violated the ceasefire,” according to Axios. The report added that Israel’s response would be limited, targeting just one site rather than multiple locations.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards confirmed that their final missile barrage on Israel was launched just minutes before the ceasefire began. In a statement reported by the semi-official Tasnim news agency, they said “14 missiles were launched against military centres across Israel,” and added that the Iranian armed forces would continue to monitor “enemy movements with open and vigilant eyes.”
Latest developments after ceasefire
• Trump announced a ceasefire overnight, aiming to bring an end to the 12-day conflict in which both Israel and the US carried out strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, prompting retaliatory attacks from Tehran.
• Israel accused Iran of violating the ceasefire by launching a missile, a claim that Tehran denied through its state-run IRIB news agency.
• On Tuesday, Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Israel’s reaction, implying their military response to Iran’s alleged missile strike was excessive.
• Iran insisted it had not launched any missiles after the truce began and alleged that Israeli airstrikes continued for 90 minutes beyond the agreed ceasefire start time.
• Despite early breaches, there was a broad sense of relief both regionally and globally that a route to de-escalation had emerged, following 12 days of war triggered by Israel’s surprise offensive and intensified by US strikes two days earlier.