WASHINGTON — President Trump has revealed that the US knows “exactly” where Iran Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is hiding but is letting him live “for now,” as Israeli and US sources say the commander-in-chief is heavily weighing whether to conduct military strikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities.

And the world was waiting on his decision Tuesday.

Trump, who ran three times for president on an “America First” platform of opposing costly Mideast quagmires, openly threatened Tehran and called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” following Israel’s punishing bombardment of the country’s military and nuclear infrastructure.

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“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding,” Trump truthed. “He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.”

7 Trump said the US knows where Iran’s supreme leader is hiding. AP

“But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

He convened an 80-minute meeting with his top national security officials in the West Wing’s Situation Room on Tuesday a little after 2 p.m. to weigh the legacy-defining decision.

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But, “as always, President Trump alone will make the call,” a source close to the Pentagon said Tuesday.

The source speculated that there’s an 80% chance the president would launch airstrikes to support Israel.

Early Tuesday morning the president told reporters he was “not too much in the mood to negotiate” and was seeking a “real end” to the Iran-Israel conflict.

The Situation Room meeting featured Vice President JD Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and intelligence director Tulsi Gabbard.

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7 Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivers a televised speech in Iran. via REUTERS

A source familiar with Trump’s deliberations said he “likes people who know what they’re talking about and are honest with him.”

Additional sources in both the US and Israel told The Post they suspect that the president will act militarily — pushing past an outcry from some of his populist movement’s leading figures who doubt the wisdom of doing so.

Similarly, an Israeli official said Trump’s positioning of military assets in the region suggests the US is willing to help Israel destroy Iran’s nuclear sites.

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Another Israeli source told The Post that Israel and the US has “reached a strategic window of opportunity” — where the parties have both the proper intelligence and weapons capabilities to wipe out Iran’s nuclear program.

The precise conversation within the Situation Room was unclear, though key players have well-known views on Iran and regional military operations.

Vance and Gabbard in particular are associated with the non-interventionist wing of Trump’s political base — with the VP putting up internal resistance to a decision earlier this year to bomb Iran-backed Houthi fighters in Yemen.

7 Heavy traffic on the Karaj-Chalus road as vehicles move westwards in a direction leading out of Tehran, Iran, as Israel and Iran continue to attack each other. via REUTERS

Gabbard, a former Hawaii congresswoman, left the Democratic Party and backed Trump in last year’s election largely over foreign policy.

A source said Gabbard has been at the White House and in the Situation Room consistently since the conflict started on June 13 — after reportedly missing a June 8 gathering at Camp David where Trump was informed that Israel’s attack on Iran was imminent.

Gabbard said in March that Iran wasn’t close to developing a nuclear bomb — contradicting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claims.

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Read the latest on the conflict between Israel and Iran

Hegseth and Rubio are more firmly tied with the Republican Party’s hawkish wing.

They were joined at the Situation Room meeting by Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Mideast special envoy, who led efforts in recent weeks to force Tehran to strike a deal to avoid a looming Israeli attack.

Although Trump floated hours earlier delegating Witkoff and Vance to negotiate with Iran, the Situation Room meeting ended with no plans for any such diplomacy, The Post confirmed.

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7 An Iranian building hit by an Israeli strike. BERNO/SIPA/Shutterstock

While the president initially vetoed Israel’s plan over the weekend to take out Khamenei, both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have indicated that the nations are nearly done waiting for Tehran to give up its nuclear program.

Trump ran for office in three general elections on a platform of keeping the US military out of Mideast quagmires — but has at moments taken limited military action in the region, including in 2020 ordering an airstrike to assassinate Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani in Iraq.

The US military has guided 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs that could more effectively collapse underground nuclear facilities — averting a potential incomplete demolition of sites by Israel, which has been dropping 2,000-pound bombs sourced from America.

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7 Israeli citizens take shelter as incoming strikes head toward Tel Aviv, Israel. AP

Netayahu on Monday night told ABC News that he was not ruling out killing Khamenei, 86, if necessary.

“We are doing what we need to do,” the prime minister said.

Khamenei has served as Iran’s supreme leader since 1989 following the death of revolutionary leader Ayatollah Khomeini, who established the country’s theocratic regime after Iran’s US-allied shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, fled in 1979.

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7 Rescue teams searching through the rubble outside a building that was hit by an Israeli airstrike. ZUMAPRESS.com

Opponents of the Iranian government described its feckless defense against Israel as evidence that the regime was on the verge of collapse.

Reza Pahlavi, the last shah’s 64-year-old son, on Tuesday called on Iranians to stage an uprising to topple the government.

“The Islamic Republic has reached its end and is in the process of collapsing. Khamenei, like a frightened rat, has gone into hiding underground and has lost control of the situation,” Pahlavi claimed in a Persian-language video posted to X.

7 Rescue workers extinguishing a fire after a bus was struck by a missile from Iran, in Herzliya, Israel. REUTERS

“The regime’s apparatus of repression is falling apart. All it takes now is a nationwide uprising to put an end to this nightmare once and for all. Now is the time to rise; the time to reclaim Iran.”

Pahlavi claimed that “Iran will not descend into civil war or instability. We have a plan for Iran’s future and its flourishing. We are prepared for the first hundred days after the fall for the transitional period for the establishment of a national and democratic government.”

Israel on Monday secured air superiority over Tehran, and Trump on Tuesday said “we” now have control over Iran’s entire airspace — seemingly indicating that the US and Israel are standing strongly together.

“We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran. Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn’t compare to American made, conceived, and manufactured ‘stuff.’”

“Nobody does it better than the good ol’ USA.”

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On June 12, Israel carried out a series of airstrikes in Iran targeting the country’s nuclear sites. The surprise attack was followed by several days of Israel and Iran trading deadly strikes. Below, Brookings scholars examine the implications of the attack for the region and beyond.

Back to top Asli Aydintasbas Israel’s strike and America’s choice

For anyone seeking evidence that the world is going through a historic inflection point, the summer of 2025 will have plenty to offer. Israel’s strikes to decapitate Iran’s military leadership and degrade its nuclear program—launched only days before the sixth round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran—have been an extraordinary initial success. Through coordinated operations, the Israeli military neutralized Iran’s air defense, established air superiority, eliminated top Iranian generals and nuclear scientists, and struck hundreds of targets, including Iran’s key enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow. Not surprisingly, the Trump administration’s tone has quickly changed from Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s initial remarks about Israel acting unilaterally (“We are not involved in strikes against Iran”) to President Donald Trump bragging about having prior knowledge of the operation and U.S. weapons used. But the real question is whether Trump will go beyond rhetoric and formally join Israel’s war on Iran. While Operation Rising Lion has burnished Israel’s credentials as the regional hegemon, it has not achieved the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program. Reports suggest much of the enrichment activity in Fordow remains intact—and Tehran will likely accelerate its program once hostilities cease. To achieve the goal of substantially downgrading Iran’s nuclear capacity, Israel needs advanced U.S. weapons and possibly air support in destroying layers of the underground installations at Fordow. Therein lies the legacy-defining challenge for Trump, the man who ran on ending wars but has made little progress toward peace in Ukraine, Gaza, or elsewhere. Will the United States revert to its traditional role as the region’s hegemon and sheriff, and allow itself to get sucked into another Middle East war? Or will Trump listen to the restrainers in his “America First” coalition and maintain some distance from this fight? Trump is undoubtedly torn between his restrainer instincts, warning him that direct U.S. engagement in a war with Iran could have devastating consequences for the United States and its allies, and Israel’s push to finish the job. His choice is anyone’s guess but will determine how the next chapter in world history is written.

Back to top Robert Einhorn Military means alone won’t eliminate Iran’s nuclear program

In the initial phases of their campaign, the Israelis have done significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program. But eliminating that program would require much more in subsequent phases, including severely damaging or destroying the deeply buried Fordow enrichment facility. Unless the Israelis can devise novel ways of incapacitating that facility or persuade President Donald Trump to destroy it using a massive U.S. earth-penetrating bomb unavailable to them, Fordow will be a major deficiency in Israel’s war aims. Even if Fordow and other critical facilities could be destroyed, most experts believe Iran could reconstitute its nuclear program in a year or two and would likely do so at secret locations, having evicted inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency—requiring repeated attacks for the indefinite future. Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi said on Friday that military strikes alone won’t be able to totally destroy Iran’s nuclear program and that Israel’s goal is to pressure Iran into agreeing to completely dismantle its program. Trump has also expressed the hope that the military campaign will force Iran to come to the negotiating table and accept zero enrichment. But hopes for Iran abandoning its nuclear program underestimate its resilience and attachment to its enrichment program and ignore that Israel’s attack will strengthen, not weaken, its desire for nuclear weapons. Israelis probably understand this—which is why they regard regime change as the most promising means of ending the Iranian nuclear threat and why it is a thinly-veiled goal of their campaign. But regime change is difficult to engineer. And there’s no guarantee that a successor regime, perhaps led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, will be less interested in nuclear weapons than the current one.

Back to top Vanda Felbab-Brown Israel has mastered clandestine operations

Whether or not Israel’s attack on Iran accomplishes Tel Aviv’s strategic objectives, the initial strikes show once again Israel’s mastery of clandestine operations. Like its stunning decapitation of Hezbollah’s leaders by exploding walkie-talkies in September 2024, Israel was once again able to identify and track the location of key Iranian military leaders, including the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, who was killed, and this time, also smuggle drones deep into Iran for a range of attacks. The latter likely required an extended presence of Israel’s operatives in Iran, a feat all the greater since one would have expected Iran to significantly improve its counterintelligence after the Hezbollah decapitation and after the political chief of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed by Israel in July 2024—in Tehran, no less. The persisting weakness of Iran’s counterintelligence will hamper its ability to rebuild its proxy militias, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, whom Israel is now also hitting. In addition to Iran’s depleted resources and its focus on internal rebuilding, the glamour of Iran’s support for militia forces across the Middle East is badly damaged. This provides opportunities to politically, economically, and institutionally attempt to weaken Iran-supported militias in Iraq. Iran may well resort to more assassination attempts of its own—such as against Israeli targets, perhaps outside of Israel. It has attempted to assassinate Iranian political dissidents, such as in New York and Europe, as well as former U.S. government officials. While these attacks have caused grave damage to their victims even when they fail, since the targets have their lives dramatically disrupted for a long time, and sap targeted countries’ counterintelligence and law enforcement resources, the Iranian clandestine operations have been often unsuccessful. Iran has frequently relied on rather incompetent criminals (sometimes not even criminal groups) and failed to detect sting operations by law enforcement.

Back to top Sharan Grewal Netanyahu is becoming a liability for Trump

President Donald Trump had campaigned on a promise to end all wars, particularly the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Yet today, each continues to escalate. Israel’s attack on Iran undermines Trump’s claim to be a peacemaker and his assertion that wars would never have started under his leadership. Although Secretary of State Marco Rubio had attempted to paint the strikes as a unilateral Israeli decision, the choice to move U.S. Embassy staff and military families out of harm’s way was in effect a green light. Trump’s claim that “we knew everything,” and that the attack occurred because his 60-day ultimatum to Iran expired, likewise suggests a level of coordination. Israel, for its part, claimed the United States provided intelligence, defense against Iranian retaliation, and bunker-buster bombs earlier this year. This level of involvement in Israel’s war with Iran puts Trump in a difficult position. He had wanted a deal to solidify his image as a peacemaker and perhaps win himself a Nobel Peace Prize one day. Instead, negotiations with Iran have been suspended. While Iran may eventually rejoin, it will do so with even less trust in the United States and Israel than before, making a deal even more difficult to reach. Finally, Israel’s attack has amplified divisions among Republicans, with Iran hawks like Lindsey Graham urging the United States to “fly with Israel,” and America First folks like Tucker Carlson urging the United States to “drop Israel.” The longer the conflict continues, the more likely Trump is to lose one side of his base.

Back to top Samantha Gross and Louison Sall Flipping the script on global oil markets

The global oil market has experienced whiplash-inducing events over the last two weeks. On May 31, the members of OPEC+ (a coalition of OPEC members and other large oil producers that formed in 2016) announced the latest in a series of production quota increases. Oil prices looked to be headed downward, and markets were well supplied. A lot can change overnight. Israel’s military strikes initially focused on Iran’s nuclear program, but on June 14, they included an oil refinery and production and processing facilities for South Pars, the world’s largest natural gas field. The global benchmark Brent Crude oil price jumped 7% on June 13, the day after the attacks began, and a further 0.5% on the morning of June 16. Concern falls into two categories. First, Iran is today the world’s ninth-largest oil producer, despite international sanctions. Spare oil production capacity in OPEC+ is roughly equal to Iran’s production, so a large disruption in Iranian production would leave supply very precarious. The greater concern is that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, a global chokepoint through which about 20% of global oil shipments pass. Closure of the strait or significantly disrupted oil shipments could bring about a global energy crisis and pull the other Gulf oil producers, who would see their shipments and revenues disrupted, into the conflict. Houthi actions in the Red Sea demonstrated that a few strikes on strategic targets can have outsized effects on global commerce. A complete blockade would not be necessary for Iran to make its point.

Back to top Steven Heydemann The Arab world’s Israel problem

In recent years, an Arab-led regional security order was beginning to take shape in the Middle East. Conflicts and competition that flared in the aftermath of mass protests in 2011 were slowly giving way to accommodation, compromise, and diplomacy. Led by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, this new security order hoped to stabilize the region by offering the prospect of economic and political integration to historic adversaries, bridging divides between Gulf states and Iran, on the one hand, and between Israel and Gulf states, on the other hand. Since October 7, 2023, however, Israel has moved aggressively and unilaterally to impose its own expansionist vision of a regional security order, devastating Gaza, destroying Hezbollah’s military capacity, enabling the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria, and now attacking Iran directly based on yet unverified claims of an imminent Iranian nuclear threat. Arab governments have publicly criticized Israel’s attack, though many quietly applaud the weakening of Iran and its proxies. It is also probable, however, that they are deeply unsettled to see their diplomatic investments shredded by Israel’s attack, and, in the longer term, by the prospect that their own security is now subject to an Israel determined to impose its own vision of regional order by force of arms. Balancing against an empowered and aggressive Israel is likely to emerge as a leading priority of Arab governments in the coming period, even as they take steps to respond to the potential fallout of Israel’s attacks, including the risk of conflict spillover should Iran target U.S. forces in the Gulf and the very real possibility that Iran will now accelerate its development of nuclear weapons.

Back to top Mara Karlin Israel’s attack leaves Iran with a choice

For three decades or so, policymakers traded worries over the progress of Iran’s nuclear program and the potential of an Israeli military attack on it. Last week, hours after the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors censured Iran—for the first time in two decades—because of its failure to comply with nuclear commitments, the inevitable occurred. The United States and Israel—sometimes alone, sometimes together, and often working with the international community—had employed a wide range of tools to delay an Israeli attack, including diplomacy, targeted killings, economic sanctions, and supply chain disruptions, which bought both parties time. Nevertheless, Israeli concerns about Iran’s intentions and progress were ultimately channeled into military force. This conflict will be studied long and hard. Offhand, it shows that some key characteristics of war haven’t changed. Eight months of serious and intense strategic planning by Israel’s national security establishment to lay the groundwork, exceptional intelligence, the element of surprise in launching the attack, a concerted information operations campaign, and a mix of high and low military capabilities ranging from sophisticated fighter aircraft to drones have shaped the campaign so far. It further demonstrates that when the Israeli national security establishment prioritizes a threat—in the case of Iran and Hezbollah—it can achieve outsized gains. Looking ahead, history offers mixed messages. In the two examples where Israel struck an adversary’s nuclear program—Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007—the long-term results were diametrically different. Operationally, Israel destroyed both programs. But at the strategic level, Damascus chose to pause its pursuit of nuclear weapons whereas Baghdad doubled down on its desire for the ultimate weapon. Tehran could conceivably choose either path. And, as long as the uranium enrichment complex at Fordow remains largely intact, it does not need to decide.

Back to top Suzanne Maloney The limits of spectacular operational success

In launching “Operation Rising Lion” last week against Iran, Israel has dealt the most catastrophic blow to the Islamic Republic since Saddam Hussein’s invasion in 1980. Precision strikes against hundreds of nuclear, missile, and leadership targets have decimated Iran’s chain of command, significantly degraded its military and economic infrastructure, and exposed the Islamic Republic’s profound vulnerability at the hands of its foremost adversary. Tehran has fired back with drones and ballistic missiles and can sustain those volleys for weeks but has few good alternatives. With its once-fearsome militia network largely neutralized, Iranian escalation could include small-scale terrorist attacks, cyberattacks, and threats to the Strait of Hormuz. None of these options would restore deterrence and all entail risky tradeoffs, especially the prospect of precipitating U.S. military intervention, which Tehran would prefer to avoid. Despite Israel’s stunning start, much of Tehran’s three decades of investment in its nuclear program remains intact or salvageable. And Israel cannot achieve its war aims—a definitive end to Iranian nuclear weapons capability—without American help to disable Iran’s Fordow fuel enrichment plant. President Donald Trump has swung his support behind the Israeli campaign, but for reasons of both politics and policy, an American intervention in the conflict in such a direct and dramatic way is highly unlikely at present. The same is true for diplomacy. Iranian leaders are insisting that they won’t surrender, the Israelis are shifting to broader targets in hopes of collapsing the Islamic Republic, and Trump is content to let the two “fight it out” for the time being. That is a perilous approach in a region where spectacular operational successes have rarely yielded sustained strategic breakthroughs. In the wake of Saddam’s invasion nearly 45 years ago, Iran’s fledging theocracy capitalized on the war to consolidate its power and rally Iranians around defending their homeland. More recently, rapid American victories in Afghanistan and Iraq succumbed to bloody insurgencies and protracted instability. Israel’s early success in Iran today should not blind the world to the risks of overreach and unintended consequences, particularly for a U.S. president determined to extricate Washington from two decades of costly, messy Middle East conflicts.

Back to top Itamar Rabinovich From reliance on proxies to an Israeli-Iranian war

For more than two decades, Iran’s regional policy in the Middle East and the conduct of its conflict with Israel were predicated on the construction and management of a network of proxies. These proxies—Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria, the pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, and the Houthis in Yemen—were the building blocks of Iran’s quest for regional hegemony and designated as partners in a future war with Israel. A second pillar of Iran’s national security policy was the development of a military nuclear capacity. During most of this period, Iran avoided a direct military confrontation with Israel and left it to its proxies. This changed in 2024 when Iran launched ballistic missiles against Israel in April (after the killing of an Iranian general in Damascus) and in October (after the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and Ismail Hanieh in Tehran). Israel’s response in April was mild, but in October it destroyed most of Iran’s ground-to-air defenses. Iran’s decision at the time reflected both its anger and a feeling that its position was undermined by the perception in the region that it was exploiting its Arab proxies in order to preserve Iranian lives and assets. In the past few years, the network of proxies began to disintegrate. The man who built it and ran it, Qassim Soleimani, was killed by the United States. Hezbollah was dealt a severe blow by Israel and is constrained by a revived Lebanese state. Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza were eliminated as military forces. The toppling of the Assad regime led to the formation of an anti-Iranian government in Damascus. In Iraq, the change is more subtle, but there are indications that some of the pro-Iranian Shiite militias are adopting a more independent line. For years, Iran provided Hezbollah with a huge number of rockets and missiles as a deterrent against an Israeli or an American attack on its nuclear installations. When Israel launched its offensive last week, there was no response by Hezbollah. Iran had to respond by itself, launching missiles and drones at Israel. This must not be taken lightly: Iran has a large arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones and some of them hit urban areas in Israel and inflicted significant damage. Iran can continue to respond to Israel’s offensive for quite some time. The Houthis are the only proxy that makes a marginal contribution to the Iranian war effort. In other words, the notion of war by proxies has been replaced by the reality of a direct Israeli-Iranian war.

Back to top Yun Sun What’s next for China?

The Israeli strikes on Iran exacerbate multiple concerns for China. From energy security to the safety of Chinese assets and personnel, from regional instability to the significant weakening of a valued partner, China’s traditional approach in the Middle East has come under mounting distress. Since the collapse of Iran’s “axis of resistance” in the region, Beijing has become increasingly sober about Iran’s internal quagmire and external duress. Consequently, China has not only been extremely modest in its economic investment in Iran—contrary to the ambitious 25-year $400 billion economic cooperation agreement signed in March 2021—but Beijing has also been vigorously diversifying its regional partnerships, especially with the Gulf countries. In the short term, China has expressed its interest in playing a “constructive role” in easing the tension, indicating a potential for Chinese mediation and diplomatic efforts. The phone calls between the Chinese foreign minister and both his Iranian and Israeli counterparts on June 14 allude to this possibility. China could also refer the conflict to the U.N. Security Council or the U.N. General Assembly, with the understanding that neither could generate binding resolutions that Israel will abide by. The challenge for China in the long run lies in the inevitable decline of Iran in the regional balance of power. China has diversified its relationships across the Middle East, but Iran has been a unique pillar of China’s regional engagement, and that pillar has been inevitably and perhaps irreversibly shaken by recent events.

Israel struck Iran’s state-run television station during a live broadcast on Monday, forcing a reporter to run off camera following an explosion, after Iran fired a new wave of missiles at Israel that killed at least eight people.

In other developments, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Israeli strikes have set Iran’s nuclear program back a “very, very long time”. He added that Israel is not attempting to topple the Iranian government, but said he would not be surprised if that happened as a result of the strikes.

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“The regime is very weak,” Mr Netanyahu told a news conference. He added that he is in touch with US President Donald Trump daily.

As he spoke, large numbers of explosions were heard in Tehran.

Israel warned hundreds of thousands of people in the middle of Tehran to evacuate ahead of the strike against the TV station, which the military said provided a cover for Iranian military operations.

The warning came on the fourth day of the conflict, when the Israeli military claimed it had achieved air superiority above the Iranian capital and could fly over the city without facing major threats.

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The military has issued similar evacuation warnings for civilians in parts of Gaza and Lebanon ahead of strikes.

The warning affected up to 330,000 people in a part of central Tehran that includes the country’s state TV and police headquarters, as well as three large hospitals, including one owned by Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.

Women mourn over the body of a man reportedly killed in an Israeli strike on Tabriz (Matin Hashemi/AP)

“At this time, we can say that we have achieved full aerial superiority over Tehran’s skies,” said Israeli military spokesperson Brigadier General Effie Defrin.

The military said it had destroyed more than 120 surface-to-surface missile launchers in central Iran, a third of Iran’s total.

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Israeli military officials also said fighter jets had struck 10 command centres in Tehran belonging to Iran’s Quds Force, an elite arm of its Revolutionary Guard that conducts military and intelligence operations outside Iran.

The Israeli strikes “amount to a deep and comprehensive blow to the Iranian threat”, Brig Defrin said.

Iran’s state-run news agency reported that state-run television abruptly stopped a live broadcast after an Israeli strike.

During the broadcast, an Iranian state television reporter said the studio was filling with dust after “the sound of aggression against the homeland”.

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Suddenly, an explosion occurred, cutting the screen behind her as she hurried off camera. The broadcast quickly switched to pre-recorded programmes.

Iran, meanwhile, announced it had launched some 100 missiles and vowed further retaliation for sweeping attacks on its military and nuclear infrastructure that have killed at least 224 people in the country since Friday.

Firefighters work to extinguish a blaze after a missile launched from Iran struck Tel Aviv (Baz Ratner/AP)

One missile fell near the American consulate in Tel Aviv, with its blast waves causing minor damage, US ambassador Mike Huckabee said on X. He added that no American personnel were injured.

So far, 24 people have been killed in Israel and more than 500 injured, Israeli officials said, after Iran launched more than 370 missiles and hundreds of drones.

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The latest conflict began when Israel launched an assault on Iran’s top military leaders, uranium enrichment sites and nuclear scientists that it said was necessary to prevent its long-time adversary from getting any closer to building a nuclear weapon.

Iran maintains that its nuclear programme is peaceful, and the US and others have assessed that Tehran has not pursued a nuclear weapon since 2003.

But the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned that the country has enough enriched uranium to make several nuclear bombs if it chooses to do so.

Iran has retaliated by firing waves of ballistic missiles at Israel.

The back-and-forth has raised concerns about all-out war between the countries and propelled the region, already on edge, into even greater upheaval.

By The

Associated Press

U.S. President Donald Trump urged all of Iran’s capital to evacuate “immediately,” saying in a social media post that Iran would not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.

Israel on Monday had warned about 300,000 people in Tehran to evacuate ahead of airstrikes. Israeli forces then struck Iran’s state-run television station during a live broadcast. Israel has been hitting Iran with airstrikes and drones throughout the day, while Iran fired a pre-dawn wave of missiles at Israel that killed at least eight people.

The tit-for-tat strikes began when Israel attacked Iran over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, and the fighting has raised fears of a wider, more dangerous regional war.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Monday that the strikes have set Iran’s nuclear program back “years” and said he is in touch daily with Trump.

Here’s the latest:

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G7 leaders call for de-escalation but insist Iran must not get nukes

Leaders of the Group of Seven countries meeting in Canada signed a joint statement calling for de-escalation of fighting between Israel and Iran while reaffirming that Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear bomb.

The statement reads:

“We, the leaders of the G7, reiterate our commitment to peace and stability in the Middle East.

“In this context, we affirm that Israel has a right to defend itself. We reiterate our support for the security of Israel.

“We also affirm the importance of the protection of civilians.

“Iran is the principal source of regional instability and terror.

“We have been consistently clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.

“We urge that the resolution of the Iranian crisis leads to a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza.

“We will remain vigilant to the implications for international energy markets and stand ready to coordinate, including with like-minded partners, to safeguard market stability.”

Hegseth heads to Situation Room

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is headed to the White House Situation Room to meet with President Donald Trump and his national security team amid tensions in the Middle East.

It comes as the U.S. has repositioned both warships and military aircraft in the region to respond if the conflict between Israel and Iran further escalates.

Hegseth didn’t provide details on what prompted the meeting but said on Fox News late Monday that the movements were to “ensure that our people are safe.”

Hegseth’s chief spokesman, Sean Parnell, tweeted that “American Forces are maintaining their defensive posture.” The U.S. has helped Israel shoot down Iranian missiles.

Trump to depart G7 early as Israel-Iran conflict shows signs of intensifying

“President Trump had a great day at the G7, even signing a major trade deal with the United Kingdom and Prime Minister Keir Starmer,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on social media. “Much was accomplished, but because of what’s going on in the Middle East, President Trump will be leaving tonight after dinner with Heads of State.”

The summit is scheduled to continue on Tuesday, when Trump had scheduled his first one-on-one meeting with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

Trump was also supposed to meet Tuesday in Canada with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Trump urges all of Tehran to evacuate ‘immediately’ in new social media post

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday posted an ominous message calling for the immediate evacuation of the Iranian capital of Tehran while he’s in Canada attending the G7 summit.

Trump had said more than once during the day that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. He emphasized that again on his social media site, writing “IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON.”

He said Iran should have agreed to the “deal” he told them to sign to prevent what he called “a shame, and waste of human life,” referring to Israel’s attacks in recent days.

Trump ended the post with, “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”

Airports are closed across the Mideast, stranding tens of thousands

“The domino effect here is massive,” said retired pilot and aviation safety expert John Cox, who said the disruptions will have a huge price tag.

“You’ve got thousands of passengers suddenly that are not where they’re supposed to be, crews that are not where they are supposed to be, airplanes that are not where they’re supposed to be,” he told the AP.

Iran’s airspace is completely closed, and Israel has closed its main international Ben Gurion Airport “until further notice.”

Although airspace is still partially open in Lebanon and Jordan, the situation is chaotic at airports there. Neighboring Iraq’s airports have all closed due to its close proximity to Iran. Some Iraqis stranded there have opted to leave by land.

Israel says more missiles from Iran are on their way

The military said defense systems were operating to intercept the missiles. There were no immediate reports of casualties or damage.

In an Israeli city hit by missile fire, many support attacking Iran

While no opinion polls have been released since Israel launched a surprise attack Friday, much of the Israeli public seems to be lining up behind the operation in these early days.

As they surveyed the damage and moved to hotels or the homes of loved ones, some Petah Tikva residents said Israel must keep up its attacks to survive.

One woman said four of her neighbors were killed and much of her apartment destroyed.

Miryam, who spoke to the AP on condition that her last name not be used because she serves in the military, called it the scariest thing she’s experienced.

“But the right thing is to attack Iran; I don’t want them to have this power over us,” she said.

As Israel-Iran conflict dominates the headlines, Gaza sees deadliest day of Israeli shootings near new food hubs

Medics in Gaza say at least 34 Palestinians were killed Monday when Israeli troops opened fire as crowds tried to reach new food distribution centers, according to witnesses.

“Fire was coming from everywhere,” said Heba Jouda, one of thousands trying to feed her family. Gaza’s Health Ministry says hundreds have been killed in similar shootings since the Israeli- and U.S.-supported aid system began last month.

Israel claims the new system prevents Hamas from diverting aid, but U.N. agencies and groups like Doctors Without Borders argue it has failed to meet urgent needs and turned food into a weapon. The nearby Red Cross field hospital in Rafah reported treating 200 wounded Monday, the highest single mass casualty event it has seen. Aid groups warn Gaza is nearing famine after months of near-total siege and say the current system creates “lethal chaos.”

The Israeli military did not immediately comment on Monday’s shootings.

Iran faces barriers to rebuilding its air defenses after Israeli strikes, expert says

Rebuilding Iran’s air defenses will be difficult due to both logistics and geopolitics, according to Hinz. He described Iran’s air defenses as a “hodgepodge” of Russian, Chinese, Iranian and outdated American systems.

Russia, once a key supplier, is unlikely to sell Iran more systems amid its war in Ukraine and because Moscow doesn’t want to hurt its “working relationship” with Israel, Hinz said. Any Russian air defense deliveries to Iran would likely be attacked by Israel, he said, and wouldn’t offer an immediate fix because training and setup take time.

China has sold Iran short-range air defense systems, anti-drone lasers, and missile-related chemicals in the past, he said. But future sales are uncertain, since Beijing may be unwilling to risk diplomatic fallout with the West or Israel.

An expert explains why Iran’s options for striking back are limited

Iran has few viable options for striking back at Israel, largely because its key regional proxy Hezbollah has been “decapitated,” according to Fabian Hinz of the International Institute of Strategic Studies.

The Houthi rebels in Yemen, another of Iran’s allies, depend on long-range Iranian missiles but supplies are limited, Hinz said. If Iran chose to strike using short-range missiles, he speculates it could transfer them to Shiite militias in Iraq, which are nearer to Israel.

Iran says Israeli drones hit Persian Gulf gas refinery

Three Israeli mini-drones struck South Pars, the country’s main gas production center, according to the state-run IRINN television channel. The report did not specify the extent of the damage.

No official word yet on casualties from Israeli strike on TV station

Videos circulating on social media show the Iranian state TV building, known as “the glass building,” is still burning.

Following the attack, live programs have been transferred to another studio that resembles those used for radio broadcasts.

Netanyahu’s comments come just days after UN atomic agency says strikes didn’t damage underground nuclear facility

U.N. nuclear chief Rafael Grossi has said Iran’s main underground enrichment site at Natanz was untouched by Israeli strikes.

Grossi told the U.N. Security Council on Friday that the above-ground section of the Natanz facility was destroyed. The main centrifuge facility underground didn’t appear to be hit, but the loss of power could have damaged infrastructure there, he said.

Grossi said Monday that radiation levels outside the complex are presently normal.

He is the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Israel warns that anyone helping Iranian forces is a target, after striking state TV

Journalists at the United Nations are pressing Israel’s ambassador on why Iran’s state television was attacked.

His reply: “Whoever is cooperating with this terror regime should be considering steps,” adding that Israel now has “very good control over the skies of Tehran.”

Ambassador Danny Dannon sidestepped questions about U.N. nuclear chief Rafael Grossi’s claim that Iran’s underground Natanz facility was untouched by Israeli strikes, but said Israel had “pushed back the nuclear program” and stressed the current operation is more complex than past strikes on reactors in Iraq or Syria.

As for peace talks, Danon said Iran must prove it’s serious about dismantling its “machine of terror” before Israel would engage.

Explosions echo across Tehran in another wave of Israeli strikes

A significant number of explosions have been ringing out in Tehran for minutes on end.

It’s unclear where the Israeli strikes may have hit in the Iranian capital, and there were no official announcements about the latest round of attacks.

Netanyahu says Israeli strikes have set Iran’s nuclear program back a ‘very, very long time’

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that Israeli strikes against Iran have set Iran’s nuclear program back a “very, very long time.” He added that Israel was not attempting to topple the Iranian government, but said he would not be surprised if that happened as a result of the strikes.

Netanyahu also said he is in touch with Trump daily.

Israel’s opposition leader rallies behind Netanyahu’s Iran operation

Roughly 24 hours before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched a blistering assault on Iran, Israel’s opposition was scheming to bring down his government.

Now, just days into the ongoing operation against Iran, the opposition has closed ranks behind the effort, suspending months of bitter criticism against Netanyahu and his handling of the war in Gaza.

It’s a sharp about-face for a constellation of parties that have criticized Netanyahu throughout the war for what they have charged is his politically motivated decision-making.

“It’s not the right moment to do politics,” opposition leader and former Prime Minister Yair Lapid told The Associated Press on Monday in his first international media interview since the start of the operation against Iran.

Website for Iranian state TV remains offline

The website for Iranian state TV, iribnews.ir, which was targeted by an Israeli strike hours ago, is currently inaccessible.

The site displays a message saying: “The website server is temporarily unavailable.”

UK signals it doesn’t want to topple Iran’s government

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s spokesman, Tom Wells, told reporters that “significant destabilization in the region is in nobody’s interests.”

Speaking Monday on the sidelines of a G7 summit where conflict in the Middle East is the dominant issue, Wells said “this summit is an opportunity to try and press for de-escalation and that is the priority, certainly for the prime minister and I believe for other world leaders too.”

Still, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said his country’s ongoing strikes on Iran could result in the government’s overthrow, and on Friday urged Iranians to rise up against their leaders.

Iranian news anchor says there were ‘bodies of reporters’ after Israeli strike

Anchor Sahar Emami came back on-air from another studio soon after rushing off-camera when Israel struck the state-run Iranian TV station.

Speaking with another anchor, Emami said that “bodies of reporters” were at the site of the initial broadcast, and images showed smoke and flames in the sky.

Israel’s defense minister takes credit for striking Iranian TV station

“The Iranian regime’s propaganda and incitement broadcasting authority was attacked by the IDF after a widespread evacuation of the area’s residents,” Israel Katz said in a statement. “We will strike the Iranian dictator everywhere.”

Human rights groups say deliberately targeting journalists is a war crime.

Germany offers to evacuate its citizens from Israel via neighboring Jordan

The German Foreign Office said Monday a charter flight from the Jordanian capital of Amman to Frankfurt is scheduled for Wednesday. Those who want to get on the flight must independently arrange their travel from Israel to Amman.

Iran calls Israeli strike on state TV station a ‘war crime’

The spokesperson for the Iranian foreign minister condemned the Israeli strike on Iran’s state TV broadcaster and called on the international community to demand justice for the attack on media.

“The world is watching: targeting Iran’s news agency #IRIB‘s office during live broadcast is a wicked act of war crime,” Esmaeil Baqaei wrote on X.

After the strike, the Israeli military released a statement saying it struck “a communication center that was being used for military purposes by the Iranian Armed Forces.” It was not immediately clear if that referred to the state TV building.

Throughout the war in Gaza, Israel has struck hospitals, U.N. facilities and schools, accusing Palestinian militants of operating from within civilian infrastructure, often without providing visual evidence.

3 killed in Israeli oil refinery hit by Iranian missiles

Early Monday morning, Iranian missiles hit an oil refinery in the northern city of Haifa for the second night in a row.

Now Israel’s fire and rescue services are saying the strike killed three workers, ignited a significant fire and damaged a building.

The workers were sheltering in the building’s safe room when the impact caused a stairwell to collapse, trapping them inside. Firefighters tried to extinguish the fire and rescue them, but were too late.

Lebanese leaders indirectly urge Hezbollah to stay out of the Israel-Iran conflict

Lebanon’s president and prime minister say any engagement would be detrimental to the small nation, which is already engulfed in an economic crisis and struggling to recover from the latest war between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

Hezbollah, funded and armed by Iran, has long been considered Tehran’s most powerful ally in the region but its latest war with Israel also saw much of Hezbollah’s political and military leadership killed in Israeli airstrikes.

The remarks from Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam during a Cabinet meeting Monday amounted to a message to Hezbollah to stay out of the fray.

US Air Force moves refueling tanker aircraft to Middle East

The movements provide President Donald Trump additional options to defend U.S. bases and personnel in the region in wake of the ongoing ballistic missile attacks by Iran and Israel’s continued air operations against Tehran, two U.S. officials told The Associated Press.

The refueling tankers are vital to supporting any major U.S. air operation, whether it would be evacuations or a potential strike by U.S. fighter jets. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide details not announced publicly.

Trump demurs on US involvement on Iran

The U.S. president declined to answer what it would take for U.S. to be directly involved in the growing conflict between Israel and Iran, saying he did not want to talk about the issue.

Instead, he continued to press Iran on negotiations on its nuclear program.

“They should talk, and they should talk immediately,” Trump said during a bilateral meeting with the Canadian prime minister during the G7 summit.

Trump added: “I’d say Iran is not winning this war.”

Iran hints at US role in ending fighting with Israel, says ‘one call’ could shift course

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi appeared to make a veiled outreach Monday for the U.S. to step in and negotiate an end to dayslong hostilities between Israel and Iran.

In a post on X, the website formerly known as Twitter, Araghchi wrote that if Trump is “genuine about diplomacy and interested in stopping this war, next steps are consequential.”

“It takes one phone call from Washington to muzzle someone like Netanyahu,” Iran’s top diplomat continued. “That may pave the way for a return to diplomacy.”

The message to Washington comes as the most recent round of talks between U.S. and Iran was canceled over the weekend after Israel targeted key military and political officials in Tehran on Thursday.

Iranian state TV halts live broadcast after Israeli strike

During a live broadcast, an Iranian state television reporter said the studio was filling with dust after “the sound of aggression against the homeland, the sound of aggression against truth and righteousness.”

Suddenly, an explosion occurred, cutting out the screen behind her as she hurried off camera amid dust and debris wafting in the air, and sounds of “Allahu Akbar” (God is greatest) were heard from off-screen. The broadcast quickly switched to pre-recorded programs.

Israel had issued a warning the evacuate the area of Iran’s capital where the TV studios are located an hour earlier.

US warships help shoot down Iranian missiles

Two American warships, the USS The Sullivans and the USS Arleigh Burke, were used to shoot down Iranian ballistic missiles over the weekend, according to a U.S. official.

The Sullivans and the USS Thomas Hudner are currently in the Mediterranean, while the Arleigh Burke has moved away from the area. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing operations.

The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier is in the Arabian Sea with the four warships in its strike group. They are not participating in the defense of Israel.

The USS Nimitz has been long scheduled to take over for the Carl Vinson and is heading west from the Indo-Pacific region. The official said it is slated to arrive in the region by the end of the month, and the two carriers would likely overlap in the Middle East at least for a short time before the Vinson heads home to San Diego.

— By Lolita C. Baldor in Washington.

Germany backs Israel’s defense, warns Iran on nukes ahead of G7 summit

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told reporters Monday ahead of the G7 summit in Canada that together with his European colleagues at the summit, Germany is planning to draw up a final communique proposal on the Israel-Iran conflict in which the European will stress that “Iran must under no circumstances be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons-capable material.”

The chancellor added the communique would also emphasize Israel’s right to defend itself, and that he and the other European leaders would discuss possible further steps to reach a diplomatic solution.

Merz rejected the idea that Russian President Vladimir Putin could be involved in mediating a diplomatic solution for the hostilities between Israel and Iran and said that instead “it would be good if Russia ended its war in Ukraine.”

Calm is returning to Wall Street after last week’s Israeli attacks

U.S. stocks are rallying Monday, while oil prices are giving back some of their initial spurts following Israel’s attack on Iran at the end of last week.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.1% and was on track to reclaim nearly all of its drop from Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 449 points, and the Nasdaq composite rose 1.4%. They joined a worldwide rise in stock prices, stretching from Asia to Europe.

The price for a barrel of benchmark U.S. oil fell by more than 3%, while gold’s price eased.

Iran’s nuclear program

The Trump administration revived efforts to negotiate limits on Iran’s uranium enrichment in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. But the indirect talks between American and Iranian diplomats have hit a stalemate.

The latest round of talks between the U.S. and Iran on the future of Tehran’s nuclear program had been scheduled Sunday in Oman but were canceled after Israel’s attack.

Iran said last Thursday that it had built and would activate a third nuclear enrichment facility. The announcement came less than two weeks after the IAEA censured Iran for failing to comply with nonproliferation obligations meant to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon. It was the first such censure in two decades.

Israel warns residents in part of Iran’s capital to evacuate ahead of strikes

Israel said Monday it planned to strike military sites in Tehran. The Israeli military has issued similar evacuation warnings for civilians in parts of Gaza and Lebanon ahead of strikes.

The warning affected up to 330,000 people in a part of central Tehran that includes the country’s state TV and police headquarters, as well as three large hospitals, including one owned by Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.

A Democratic US senator says he’ll force a vote to give Congress more of a say over military force against Iran

Sen. Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat and a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is filing a resolution to require that Congress authorize a declaration of war or any specific use of military force against Iran. Congress passed a similar resolution in 2020 during Trump’s first term.

“It is not in our national security interest to get into a war with Iran unless that war is absolutely necessary to defend the United States. I am deeply concerned that the recent escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran could quickly pull the United States into another endless conflict,” Kaine said.

The resolution requires that any hostilities with Iran must be explicitly authorized by a declaration of war or specific authorization for use of military force, but would not prevent the United States from defending itself from imminent attack.

Cyprus says Portugal and Slovakia have asked for its help with evacuations

Cypriot Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos says Portugal and Slovakia will be bringing their citizens from the area of the Israeli-Iran conflict home through Cyprus.

The island nation is the nearest European Union country to Israel, lying just 268 kilometers (167 miles) across the Mediterranean Sea.

Cyprus has acted as a transfer point for evacuees following the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by the militant group Hamas that led to the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip.

Moscow still not announcing plans to evacuate Russians from Israel and Iran

The Kremlin says Russia is ready to do “everything necessary” to resolve the “root causes” of the “dangerous escalation of tensions” between Iran and Israel.

Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters he was unaware if a decision had been made by Moscow to organize a full evacuation of its citizens from Israel and Iran.

“All agencies are monitoring the situation with the utmost care,” Peskov said.

Poland will evacuate around 200 of its citizens stranded in Israel

The evacuations will be overland to neighboring Jordan and will take place within the next two days, according to a deputy foreign minister, Henryka Moscicka-Dendys.

She says there will be a bus convoy to Amman, the Jordanian capital, where evacuees — tourists and short-term visitors — will board a government plane to return home.

“Poland will be the first country to organize such an evacuation,” Moscicka-Dendys said, emphasizing the move is precautionary and aims to avoid escalating tensions. No military escort is planned.

Putin and Erdogan condemn Israeli attacks on Iran

The Russian and Turkish presidents called for an immediate end to hostilities and the use of diplomatic means to settle contentious issues.

Both Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned Israeli attacks on Iran. They spoke in a phone call on Monday, the Kremlin said.

Russians urged to leave Israel

Speaking with Russian state media Monday, Russia’s Ambassador to Israel Anatoly Viktorov reiterated Moscow’s advice to Russian citizens to leave Israel if possible.

Viktorov said that Russian citizens could independently cross Israel’s border with Egypt in order to catch commercial flights home. He also said that a wider, state-organized evacuation of citizens from Israel could be carried out “if necessary.”

“The threat that is being posed to the lives and health of both diplomats and Russian citizens in Israel is quite real,” he said.

Iran is on its own, analyst says

“Iran is battling it out alone,” said Lina Khatib, a Middle East expert at the Chatham House think tank in London.

Russia will not come to Iran’s aid, Khatib told AP, pointing out that Russia did not help Iran last year when Israel destroyed Russian-supplied air defenses or when Iran’s ally, former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, was ousted.

Russia is likely to limit its support for Iran to “strongly worded statements” and will use the conflict to present itself as a mediator, Khatib said.

Turkey’s Erdogan offers mediation

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in a telephone call Monday that Turkey was ready to act as a “facilitator” for the resolution of the Israel-Iran conflict and resumption of the nuclear negotiations.

A statement from Erdogan office said Erdogan emphasized Turkey’s commitment to peace and stability in the region.

The Turkish leader has been engaged in telephone diplomacy since Saturday in an effort to reduce tensions. It was Erdogan’s second call with Pezeshkian since the outbreak of the conflict.

Azerbaijan helps evacuate foreign citizens from neighboring Iran

Azerbaijani media reports said that following the evacuation of citizens of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia, citizens of Portugal, the Philippines, Finland and some other countries have crossed the Astara border checkpoint and headed to the airport in Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku.

Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Aykhan Hajizade said that 41 of its citizens, including family members of its diplomats in Iran, also have returned to Azerbaijan, said. He added that Azerbaijan’s diplomatic missions in Iran have continued to operate as usual.

UN warns of ‘unprecedented’ food crisis in Gaza

A new U.N. food crisis report released on Monday said the resumption of military operations in Gaza was escalating the food crisis in Gaza “to unprecedented levels.”

The Hunger Hotspots report by the World Food Program and Food and Agricultural Organization said that no adequate humanitarian aid or commercial supplies have reached the Gaza Strip since the end of the eight-week cease-fire, the longest interruption since the start of the conflict.

According to the latest projections, released in May, the whole of Gaza’s 2.1 million people are at risk of falling into acute food insecurity by September.

UN human rights chief decries ‘unconscionable suffering’ in Gaza

The U.N. human rights chief said Israel’s warfare in Gaza is inflicting “horrifying, unconscionable suffering” on Palestinians and urged government leaders to exert pressure on Israel’s government and the militant group Hamas to end it.

“Israel’s means and methods of warfare are inflicting horrifying, unconscionable suffering on Palestinians in Gaza,” Volker Türk told the 47-member Human Rights Council in an address that raised concerns about the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, the fallout from sweeping U.S. tariffs, and China’s human rights record among other topics.

Israeli authorities have regularly accused the council of anti-Israel bias, and the Trump administration has kept the United States out of the its proceedings.

Egypt arrests 2 members of Global March to Gaza, group says

Egyptian authorities arrested two members of the international coordination committee of the Global March to Gaza, the group said Monday.

The group said in a statement it hasn’t heard from French citizen Hicham El Ghaoui and Spanish national Manuel Tapial for around a day since their arrest and it has no details about their whereabouts.

Demonstrators from 80 countries planned to march to Egypt’s border with Gaza to spotlight the deepening humanitarian crises facing Palestinians since Israel began blocking aid trucks from entering the coastal enclave in March.

“Our commitment remains unchanged: We stand with Gaza, call for the opening of a humanitarian corridor, and demand an end to the genocide against the Palestinian people. Governments must act now,” the statement said.

Foreigners are being evacuated from Iran and Israel

Some 120 people, including diplomats and their families, were evacuated from Iran via Turkmenistan, the country’s Foreign Ministry said Monday. Many of those evacuated were from fellow Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, officials said.

Turkmenistan, a gas-rich nation that has remained largely isolated under its autocratic rulers since it became independent following the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, shares a 1,148-kilometer (713-mile) border with Iran.

The Czech Republic is also sending a plane for Czechs who want to leave Israel amid the conflict with Iran, the Czech Foreign Ministry said. Other Czechs will use another plane sent by the government of Slovakia headed to Jordan to return home.

Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs says it helped 14 Taiwanese leave Israel by bus for Jordan on Sunday and will help them travel onward. The ministry is in touch with another nine Taiwanese currently in Iran and will assist them if they need help departing, the ministry said in a statement Monday.

Concussion of Iranian missile causes minor damage to US Consulate in Tel Aviv

The American Consulate in Tel Aviv suffered minor damage from the concussion of an Iranian missile landing nearby, U.S. Ambassador Mike Huckabee said on Monday.

Huckabee said in a post on X there were no injuries to American personnel but that the consulate in Tel Aviv and Embassy in Jerusalem would remain closed through the day as a precaution.

The damage came amid a new wave of Iranian missile attacks on Israel in retaliation for Israel’s sweeping attacks on Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure.

Iran’s health ministry says 224 killed since Israel’s attack began Friday

Iran’s health ministry says 224 people have been killed since Israel’s attack began Friday.

Spokesman Hossein Kermanpour said on social media that 1,277 other people were hospitalized, and asserted that over 90% of the casualties were civilians.

Israel has said 14 people have been killed there since Friday and 390 others wounded.

Trump vetoed Israeli plan to kill Iran’s supreme leader, US official says

U.S. President Donald Trump vetoed a plan presented by Israel to the U.S. to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter.

The Israelis informed the Trump administration in recent days that they had developed a credible plan to kill Khamenei. After being briefed on the plan, the White House made clear to Israeli officials that Trump was opposed to the Israelis making the move, according to the official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment on the sensitive matter.

The Trump administration is desperate to keep Israel’s military operation aimed at decapitating Iran’s nuclear program from exploding into an even more expansive conflict and saw the plan to kill Khamenei as a move that would enflame the conflict and potentially destabilize the region.

On Friday, 13 June 2025, Israel launched an unprovoked military attack on Iran, striking more than 100 targets – including military bases, nuclear facilities and senior leadership.

The attack, which has heightened fears of a wider regional war, killed Iran’s military chief of staff, the head of the Revolutionary Guard, and several members of its nuclear programme – just two days before the sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks was set to resume.

Since then, a total of 14 nuclear scientists have reportedly been assassinated in air strikes and car bombings.

Tehran had been working to reaffirm its commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), allowing peaceful uranium enrichment under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Israel, however, has long opposed not only potential weaponisation but also any form of nuclear development in Iran.

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It seeks to dismantle the programme entirely, denying Iran access to nuclear energy altogether, even as it has possessed nuclear weapons since the late 1960s, remains outside the NPT and has never officially declared its arsenal.

This latest assault follows years of destabilisation efforts, including covert sabotage, assassinations and violations of Iranian sovereignty – all met with silence from the international community.

The United States, for its part, had advance knowledge of the strike. While White House officials have denied direct involvement, senior congressional leaders were briefed in advance – and President Donald Trump publicly praised the strikes as “successful” and said the US “knew everything” about the operation.

Israel’s gambit may yet backfire – ending in strategic failure and dragging the US into another unwinnable Middle East war

Having long sought to provoke a large-scale confrontation, Israel is now exploiting the impunity granted by western powers amid its genocidal war on Gaza and broader regional aggression to escalate its violent campaign even further.

Israeli officials who have claimed credit for regime change in Syria are now openly threatening to assassinate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and seeking to topple the Iranian government.

But to destroy Iran’s fortified nuclear sites and overthrow its leadership, Israel requires full US military support. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategy is to provoke a wider conflict – one that forces Washington into direct war with Iran.

That gambit, driven by Israel’s hegemonic ambition to remain the region’s sole nuclear power, may yet backfire – ending in strategic failure and dragging the US once more into a costly and unwinnable war in the Middle East.

Securing the realm

Since the 1979 Iranian revolution, the US and Israel have regarded the Islamic Republic of Iran as a major threat – an obstacle to US hegemony and Israeli domination in the Middle East.

A key US strategy for curbing emerging regional powers has been to create counterbalances in the region.

Trump’s Middle East moves revive the question of who’s in charge Read More »

This policy explains America’s tacit support for Iraq’s invasion of Iran in 1980, which it fuelled for eight years before the war ended inconclusively in 1988.

When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990, the US pivoted to a dual containment policy targeting both Iran and Iraq, while simultaneously expanding its military footprint in the region.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the US emerged as the sole global superpower – a unipolar moment. This was seen by pro-Israel political forces, both in the US and in Israel, as a golden opportunity to extend American primacy in a way that furthered Israeli regional dominance.

By May 1996, Netanyahu was elected as the Israeli prime minister at a time when pro-Israel policymakers were already gaining significant influence within the Clinton administration.

By the end of that year, a strategic blueprint titled “A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm” was published. The “realm” in question was not the US, but Israel.

General Wesley Clark, the former Nato Supreme Allied Commander, revealed in 2003 that shortly after the 11 September 2001 attacks, neoconservatives in the Bush administration had crafted a sweeping plan to remake the Middle East in Israel’s favour.

After toppling the Taliban in Afghanistan, the plan was to invade and dismantle seven Muslim-majority countries: Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Libya, Sudan, Somalia – and ultimately Iran.

In The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy, political scientists John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt argued convincingly that pro-Israel forces in the US played a central role in driving the invasion of Iraq.

Since then, the US and Israel have worked to weaken or remove any government in the region not aligned with their interests, many of them the very countries listed by Clark.

Among these, Iran has always posed the most difficult challenge.

The Islamic Republic’s revolutionary foundation makes it uniquely resistant to external pressure and regime change, despite decades-long sanctions, isolation and western destabilisation campaigns.

The nuclear pretext

For 25 years, Netanyahu has relentlessly warned that Iran was just “weeks away” from developing a nuclear bomb.

However, intelligence assessments, including those from the IAEA, have consistently found no evidence that Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons.

In 2015, the US and other permanent members of the Security Council, as well as Germany, reached a landmark agreement with Iran, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The US policy of ‘maximum pressure’ failed, accelerating Iran’s enrichment rather than halting it

It allowed Iran to enrich uranium under strict international oversight, within the framework of the NPT. However, Netanyahu and his allies in the US Congress launched a campaign to kill the deal.

In 2018, they succeeded in convincing Trump to withdraw from the JCPOA.

Since then, both the Trump and Biden administrations have pursued a “maximum pressure” strategy – imposing harsh sanctions, financial restrictions and political isolation in an effort to coerce Iran into relinquishing its right to enrich uranium.

But the policy failed. Iran accelerated its enrichment efforts, raising its uranium purity from 3.75 percent to 60 percent and amassing over 400kg of enriched uranium.

When Trump returned to office in January 2025, he was eager to negotiate a new deal that would dismantle Iran’s enrichment capability.

On the campaign trail, he promised to avoid new wars and end America’s military entanglements. However, he soon found himself facing a defiant and extremist Israeli government that had radically revised its military doctrine following the Hamas-led Toufan Al-Aqsa attack on 7 October 2023.

That attack deeply shook Israeli society, which has long relied on deterrence as the most critical pillar of its military doctrine. However, a major consequence of the events at Toufan Al-Aqsa has been the undermining of this foundational element.

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To restore deterrence against the Palestinian resistance, the Zionist regime embarked on a genocidal campaign in Gaza that has already spanned more than 600 days.

Meanwhile, Israel, which possesses nuclear weapons, has long opposed any regional rival developing even peaceful nuclear capabilities.

It bombed nuclear reactors in Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007 with total impunity. Despite these precedents, it has so far failed to destroy Iran’s far more advanced and dispersed nuclear infrastructure – some of which is buried deep in mountains and highly fortified.

Strategic miscalculation

In April 2025, Trump issued a 60-day ultimatum to Iran to accept a deal that would effectively end its nuclear enrichment capability.

After five rounds of talks, a sixth round was scheduled for 15 June. However, Trump, admittedly, was complicit and engaged in a deceptive campaign to allow Israel to wage its war and bomb nuclear sites two days before their scheduled meeting.

The deception worked. Israel carried out a massive decapitation strike on 13 June, assassinating over 20 senior Iranian military figures.

The goal was not only to derail the talks and destroy Iran’s mature nuclear programme, but to cripple Iran’s military leadership and nuclear experts – in the hope of sparking regime change.

By allowing Israel to bomb Iran, Trump is pushing Tehran to go nuclear Read More »

As Netanyahu rejoiced and Israelis gloated, Trump tried to take some credit as many pundits and politicians were revelling and writing the Islamic Republic’s obituary.

But as Mark Twain once quipped: “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”

History teaches us that it is not who fires the first shot that wins, but the one who fires the last.

If one were to determine the victors during the following dates in these conflicts – such as the Iraq-Iran war in October 1980, the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in August 1982, or the American invasions of Afghanistan in October 2001 and Iraq in March 2003 – they would have wrongly predicted the outcome in every case.

However, in the current conflict, Iran responded swiftly and forcefully.

Within hours, Iran’s supreme leader appointed new commanders, who launched a massive barrage of ballistic missiles and drones in retaliation, targeting Tel Aviv, Haifa and other Israeli cities.

The scope and scale of the response were unprecedented in Israel’s history.

Suddenly, the Zionist regime found itself paralysed. Millions of its people were forced into bomb shelters. The vaunted Iron Dome defence system was overwhelmed. Netanyahu’s calls for regime change in Iran, once brash and confident, now sounded desperate and fraught.

Boxed in

Israel faces a grim strategic dilemma. It cannot destroy Iran’s nuclear programme without US military help. It cannot induce regime change – a feat the US has failed to achieve despite decades of effort.

Thus, Netanyahu is frantically trying to pull the US into war.

On the other hand, Trump faces serious constraints. His base – the “Maga” movement – strongly opposes another Middle Eastern conflict. A war with Iran could jeopardise his domestic agenda and inflame tensions with geopolitical rivals like China.

Moreover, US assets in the region are vulnerable. There are 90,000 US troops (mostly in support and logistical roles rather than combat) stationed across dozens of bases, many within Iran’s missile range.

A wider conflict could prompt Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which 21 percent of global oil passes, or attack oil fields across the Gulf – potentially causing a global economic crisis.

If Netanyahu fails to draw the US into the war, and cannot dismantle Iran’s nuclear capability or cause regime collapse, Israel’s deterrence will be permanently weakened

Israel has boxed itself in. It defines its victory as either the dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear programme or the fall of the regime. Anything less will be a crushing defeat. So, Netanyahu is once again trying to manipulate a US president. But the stakes are now dangerously high.

There are three main scenarios that could unfold:

1) A prolonged war of attrition: In this scenario, Israel and Iran engage in a grinding conflict that remains contained. Iran absorbs the damage and continues to strike Israeli targets, eventually emerging as the prevailing party as Israel is battered and fails to curtail Iran’s nuclear capabilities. As its nuclear activities survive, its regional influence is not only restored, but also grows.

2) US intervention: America is drawn into the war, seeking to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme and force Tehran into a new agreement. But this could destabilise the global economy and is unlikely to achieve its aims, given Iran’s ideology and its strategic ties to Russia and China.

3) Regional conflagration: A full-blown regional war draws in multiple actors, shatters existing rules of engagement, and possibly ignites a global conflict. Some analysts have warned that this could mark the beginning of World War Three.

If Netanyahu fails to draw the US into the war, and cannot dismantle Iran’s nuclear capability or cause regime collapse, Israel’s deterrence will be permanently weakened. Ironically, such a blow may also force Israel to end its devastating genocidal war on Gaza and abandon its quest for unchallenged regional hegemony.

As Vladimir Lenin once observed: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” In the weeks ahead, the world may be living through one of those historic times that may define the region for decades to come.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.