8:03 America/EST Monday, June 2

Report for Monday, June 2, 2025

Ukraine and Russia hold second round of talks in Istanbul

Ukraine says its drones hit 41 bombers deep inside Russia, causing $7 billion in damage

Conservative nationalist Karol Nawrocki wins Poland’s presidential election

Iran poised to dismiss US nuclear proposal, says Iranian diplomat

Hegseth Warns Allies About China, Presses Defense Spending

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES Russia’s Nuclear Rhetoric: Cold War Redux. Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, analyzed Russia’s nuclear posture, doctrine shifts, and strategic signaling amid the Ukraine war. Kristensen, a leading authority on nuclear arsenals and co-author of the Nuclear Notebook series, stated that Russia maintains a military stockpile of approximately 4,300 warheads, the world’s largest. He noted that while Moscow has modernized its land-based missiles and submarines, much of its rhetoric, including the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, is more about psychological signaling than an actual shift toward nuclear use. Russia’s revised doctrine, which lowers the threshold for use in response to conventional threats, reflects its effort to deter deeper Western involvement in Ukraine. Despite the saber-rattling, Kristensen emphasized that actual use remains highly unlikely unless a large-scale war breaks out between NATO and Russia. Meanwhile, the U.S. and NATO have responded more subtly but significantly, adjusting nuclear operations and posture in Europe. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS FBI investigating ‘targeted terror attack’ against peaceful gathering in Colorado . A peaceful rally in Boulder, Colorado, supporting the release of Hamas-held hostages in Gaza, was attacked on Sunday, leaving at least eight people injured, two critically. The suspect, 45-year-old Mohamed Sabry Soliman, reportedly used a makeshift flame thrower and incendiary device while shouting “free Palestine.” Two of the victims were airlifted to a burn unit at a hospital. Authorities, including local police, the FBI, and the National Counterterrorism Center, are investigating the incident, and President Trump has been briefed. While FBI Chief Kash Patel called it a “targeted terror attack,” Boulder Police said they were not treating it as terrorism yet but acknowledged it could be ideologically motivated violence or a hate crime. The incident occurred during a walk organized by Run For Their Lives, which described the event as a weekly, peaceful show of solidarity. Community leaders and officials, including Israel’s UN ambassador, the Colorado governor, and local Jewish organizations, condemned the attack, which has sparked heightened concern for the safety of Jewish communities across the globe, particularly as it coincided with the eve of Shavuot. Reuters Axios CNNNew York Times Trump, China’s Xi will likely speak soon, says Treasury’s Bessent . U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are expected to speak soon to resolve trade disputes, including issues with critical minerals, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. On Sunday, Bessent stated that China has been withholding essential products crucial for global supply chains, accusing them of violating an agreement to roll back tariffs and restrictions. The White House expects a conversation between Trump and Xi shortly, though no specific date is set. Bessent suggested the issue might stem from a glitch in the Chinese system or be deliberate. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett expressed hope for a positive conversation this week, aiming to ease tensions and move forward with trade negotiations. Reuters CNBC Barron’s The rare minerals battle behind Rubio’s ban on Chinese students. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s abrupt announcement to cancel U.S. visas for all Chinese students was directly linked to rising tensions over trade with China, Axios reports. This move, which impacts up to 280,000 Chinese students, followed China’s decision to restrict exports of rare-earth minerals essential for U.S. defense and technology industries, a retaliatory action amid trade negotiations. These minerals, such as samarium, terbium, and dysprosium, are used in military systems and vital technology, and are largely controlled by China under its “Made in China 2025” plan. This gives Beijing global leverage. Rubio’s decision, fueled by President Trump’s anger at China’s “bad faith” in trade talks, was also a political message targeting the Chinese Communist Party, many of whose leaders send their children to American universities. The move sparked criticism from education groups warning against racial profiling and xenophobia. Despite the initial optimism in a U.S.-China trade deal, the rare-earth restrictions remain, stalling talks. The administration sees the student visa move as both a national security measure and a negotiation tactic in the battle for rare-earth minerals and magnets. Axios Harvard Has Trained So Many Chinese Communist Officials, They Call It Their ‘Party School.’ The Trump administration is planning to cancel or tighten visas for Chinese students in the U.S., especially those with ties to the Chinese Communist Party. This move, part of a broader effort to limit Chinese influence, targets prestigious institutions like Harvard, a long-standing destination for China’s rising bureaucrats. Alumni include Xi Jinping’s top trade negotiator and former Vice President Li Yuanchao, retired vice premier Liu He, a grandson of former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin, and Xi’s own daughter, Mingze. China has long used U.S. universities, including Harvard, Stanford, and Syracuse, for mid-career training of officials to learn governance and public policy. Harvard has even been called the “top party school” outside China. Critics warn the crackdown could amount to racial profiling, but the Trump administration views it as a way to safeguard U.S. security and protect industrial secrets from alleged espionage. The move also coincides with escalating trade tensions, especially over rare-earth mineral supplies essential for American industries. Wall Street Journal U.S. indicts British man over alleged plot to smuggle military tech to China . A British man, John Miller, 63, has been indicted in the U.S. for allegedly attempting to pass sensitive American defense technology to China. U.S. authorities say Miller and Chinese national Cui Guanghai tried to smuggle an encryption-decryption device to Beijing, using a blender for concealment. Both were arrested in Serbia in late April and are accused of soliciting U.S. defense items, including missiles, drones, and radar systems, for illegal export to China. They also allegedly harassed a Chinese American artist critical of Beijing by trying to install a tracking device on his car and damaging it. U.S. prosecutors claim the plan was uncovered in a sting operation involving FBI agents posing as arms dealers. If convicted, Miller and Cui face up to 20 years under the U.S. Arms Export Control Act, plus 10 years for smuggling. The incident comes amid rising U.S.-China tensions, including warnings from Beijing over Washington’s statements about Taiwan. Politico EU Bloomberg BBCThe Guardian Unease at F.B.I. Intensifies as Patel Ousts Top Officials . Since his confirmation as FBI director, Kash Patel has worked to reshape the bureau along lines consistent with the views of the Trump administration. Patel and his deputy, Dan Bongino, have purged senior FBI officials, forced others into retirement or leave, and implemented sweeping changes to agency priorities, especially focusing on immigration and revisiting past cases tied to right-wing grievances. Their actions, often perceived as politically motivated, have replaced experienced personnel with loyalists, raising concerns about the bureau’s capacity and independence. Some moves, such as closing the Washington field office’s elite corruption unit, appear to shield Trump allies. The increased use of polygraph tests and opaque decision-making processes have created a climate of fear. Critics warn these changes are undermining the FBI’s credibility and risking its ability to pursue sensitive investigations. Patel claims these reforms are necessary to correct a compromised agency, but many see them as attempts to politicize federal law enforcement. New York Times Patel and Bongino’s choppy transition from roasting the FBI to running it . Kash Patel and Dan Bongino, once vocal critics of the FBI and champions of conspiracy theories about Jan. 6, the “Russia hoax,” and Jeffrey Epstein, are now in charge of the bureau under President Trump, who himself harbors deep distrust of the agency. Their leadership is facing backlash from three fronts: MAGA supporters upset by their recent denials of deep-state plots, a skeptical FBI workforce resistant to their policies (including prioritizing immigration arrests and changes to training), and Trump, who has expressed doubts about their denials of conspiracies against him. Patel and Bongino’s comments, including pleas for patience while they uncover alleged hidden files, reflect their struggle to balance the demands of their base, the workforce, and the White House. Critics warn their loyalty to Trump undermines their independence, but supporters claim they’re restoring accountability to the FBI. Axios Trump pulls Musk associate’s nomination for NASA administrator. President Trump announced he’s withdrawing Jared Isaacman’s nomination to lead NASA, citing a “thorough review of prior associations.” Isaacman, a billionaire and close associate of Elon Musk who has led SpaceX missions, was on the verge of Senate confirmation. His ties to Musk and past donations to Democrats raised concerns, though he described himself as “relatively apolitical.” The decision follows Musk’s departure from the administration’s Department of Government Efficiency and comes amid Trump’s plans to slash NASA’s budget by 25%. Isaacman responded graciously, saying he’d continue to support Trump and NASA. The move has stirred controversy, with Republican Senator Tim Sheehy calling Isaacman a “strong choice” and opposing his withdrawal. Trump plans to replace him with someone “mission aligned,” but the decision has sparked pushback within the GOP, highlighting divisions over NASA leadership and the broader direction of U.S. space policy under Trump. AxiosPoliticoNPRCBS News Bloomberg The great undoing: Trump’s presidency is reeled in by courts. In his first 130 days, President Trump has aggressively pushed executive actions, testing the limits of presidential power. Courts, however, have issued numerous rulings temporarily blocking many of his initiatives, including efforts on immigration, education, federal workforce cuts, and tariffs. Notably, even major moves like eliminating birthright citizenship face uphill legal battles. Trump’s tactics resemble past presidential strategies, but his confrontational approach toward judges is unique. While the ultimate fate of these policies remains uncertain, the courts’ decisions so far have set the stage for intense, high-stakes legal showdowns that will likely define the scope of Trump’s presidential power. Axios

THE UKRAINE UPDATE Ukraine and Russia hold second round of talks in Istanbul. Ukraine will attend peace talks on Monday in Istanbul, where its delegation—led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov—plans to present a comprehensive roadmap for ending the war. The proposal begins with a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, monitored by the U.S. and third countries, with potential for rolling extensions. Key confidence-building measures include the exchange of all prisoners of war, the return of abducted Ukrainian children, and the release of civilian hostages. Ukraine demands robust international security guarantees and rejects any restrictions on its military or alliances, asserting its right to join the European Union and NATO. Territorial negotiations will begin only after the ceasefire and will not recognize Russian gains since 2014. Sanctions relief for Russia would be phased, with a snapback mechanism in place if the agreements are violated. The ultimate goal is a leaders’ summit between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin to finalize terms on security, territory, reparations, and a permanent peace agreement backed by international enforcement. Reuters Ukraine says its drones hit 41 bombers deep inside Russia, causing $7 billion in damage. Ukraine carried out its deepest and most ambitious drone strikes into Russian territory to date, targeting strategic air bases housing nuclear-capable bombers on Sunday. The operation, reportedly led by Vasyl Malyuk, the chief of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), used drones concealed in mobile wooden houses transported by trucks. Strikes hit five bases across Russia, including in Siberia and the Murmansk region, destroying or damaging 41 aircraft used in the frequent cruise missile air attacks against Ukraine, including Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers. Also hit were A-50s, which detect enemy aircraft and missiles, besides providing intelligence on targets and directions to Russian fighter jets. President Volodymyr Zelensky touted “the absolutely brilliant result’ and described it as Ukraine’s longest-range operation, involving the launch of 117 drones. He also said Ukraine operated near a regional headquarters of the Russian Federal Security Service, known as the FSB. The SBU reported that “Operation Spiderweb” caused $7 billion in damages and disabled 34% of cruise missile bombers in key Russian airbases. Russia downplayed the damage but acknowledged the attacks. Bloomberg Wall Street Journal Associated PressNew York TimesWashington Post ANALYSIS–An astonishing raid deep inside Russia rewrites the rules of war. Ukraine’s “Spider Web” drone operation marks a turning point in modern warfare by redefining how deep-strike raids can be conducted. Rather than using large, long-range drones or missiles, Ukraine deployed small quadcopters smuggled inside trucks and launched them from within Russian territory, up to 4,000 kilometers from the front lines. The operation destroyed or damaged 41 strategic Russian aircraft, including rare A-50s and Tu-95 bombers, demonstrating both Ukraine’s operational reach and its innovative use of commercial technology, automated targeting, and local networks. What makes this strike revolutionary is its blend of deception, logistical complexity, and minimal-cost delivery systems, which exposed vulnerabilities in Russia’s military infrastructure and doctrine. Western analysts suggest it signals a broader threat to concentrated airpower globally. The operation, 18 months in the making, shows that even heavily guarded strategic assets are now susceptible to asymmetric, distributed drone warfare—forcing militaries worldwide to rethink base security, airpower survivability, and the future of deterrence. The Economist Seven killed by bridge blasts in Russian regions bordering Ukraine on eve of peace talks. Two separate bridge explosions in Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk regions on Sunday derailed a passenger and freight train, killing at least seven people and injuring over 70. Russian investigators confirmed both bridges were deliberately blown up and opened criminal probes. The Bryansk incident occurred as a Moscow-bound train carrying 388 passengers passed beneath a collapsing overpass; three carriages derailed, killing seven and injuring dozens, including children. Hours later, a railway bridge collapsed in Kursk, injuring freight train workers. Ukraine has not claimed responsibility, but the attacks follow a pattern of cross-border strikes amid escalating hostilities. Kyiv’s military intelligence said it derailed a Russian military train in occupied Zaporizhzhia. The incidents come just before scheduled peace talks in Istanbul on Monday. Russian officials blamed Ukrainian sabotage. ReutersNew York TimesWashington Post Politico EUAssociated Press Russia shatters drone record, launches 472 UAVs at Ukraine the night before Kyiv’s strike on Russian airfields. Russia launched a record 472 Shahed-type drones at Ukraine late Saturday and early Sunday, surpassing its previous record by over 100 drones. In addition to the drone barrage, Russia also fired three Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and four Kh-101 and Iskander-K cruise missiles. According to Ukraine’s Air Force, air defense units successfully shot down 210 drones, while another 172 were neutralized using electronic warfare systems. The drone interceptions occurred across 18 different regions of Ukraine. The record-shattering drone attack came on the eve of Ukraine’s “Operation Spider Web,” a major strike on Russia’s military airfields. Kyiv Independent Ahead of Istanbul peace talks, Russia kills 9, injures 49 civilians across Ukraine. Russian attacks across Ukraine in the past day killed at least nine civilians and injured 49, including children, regional officials said on Monday. Strikes spanned multiple regions—Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Chernihiv—damaging homes, infrastructure, and medical facilities. The attacks followed Ukraine’s major drone strike that reportedly damaged a third of Russia’s strategic aviation fleet. Russia launched 80 Shahed drones, missiles, and decoys; Ukraine intercepted many via air defense and electronic warfare. Peace talks are scheduled to take place in Istanbul later on Monday. Kyiv Independent 12 Ukrainian soldiers dead, 60 injured after Russian missile strike Sunday on training center . A Russian missile strike hit Ukraine’s 239th military training ground on Sunday morning, killing 12 soldiers and injuring 60 others—many of them young trainees sheltering at the time. In response, Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi, commander of Ukraine’s Land Forces since November 2024, announced his resignation, citing personal responsibility for the tragedy. Drapatyi expressed condolences, saying the soldiers “were supposed to study, live, fight – not die.” A statement on the attack did not identify the location of the training grounds, nor the specific type of missile used by Russia. Reuters Kyiv Independent As 50,000 Russian troops amass, Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast braces for a large-scale offensive. As Russia amasses around 50,000 troops near Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast, Ukrainian officials and soldiers brace for a potential large-scale offensive. While Russian forces have already captured four border villages using fast-moving assault tactics, the full extent of the Kremlin’s intentions remains unclear. Limited media access and minimal disclosures from the Ukrainian military have created a fog of war. Analysts suggest that Sumy is a secondary front intended to tie down Ukrainian troops, with Russia’s main push still focused on the Donbas. Nevertheless, the sheer size of the Russian force has prompted mass civilian evacuations — nearly 56,000 people — and raised concerns over Ukraine’s ability to reinforce the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the creation of a “security buffer zone,” and some Ukrainian sources warn that if successful, Moscow will push deeper. Despite nightly drone strikes, life in Sumy continues under strain, as soldiers monitor a tense, slow-moving front. Kyiv Independent Ukraine orders mandatory evacuation from 11 additional villages in Sumy Oblast. Sumy Oblast Governor Oleh Hryhorov on Saturday ordered the mandatory evacuation of 11 more villages amid escalating Russian attacks, citing a “constant threat to civilian life.” This brings the total number of evacuated settlements to 213. Russian forces recently seized four villages and continue cross-border assaults, prompting fears of a new offensive. Kyiv Independent Russia steps up offensives in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Sumy oblasts, Syrskyi says. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on Saturday that Russia has intensified assaults across Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Sumy oblasts. While Russia’s primary efforts remain focused on Donetsk’s Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Lyman fronts, activity in Zaporizhzhia is rising. Ukraine claims to have inflicted heavy losses—over 34,000 Russian troops killed in May—and is reinforcing high-risk zones. Syrskyi also noted that Ukrainian forces conducted 58 long-range strikes into Russia in May, targeting military-industrial sites. Russia has redeployed elite units to the Kursk front. President Vladimir Putin visited the region following Russia’s claim to have “liberated” it, although Ukraine says some territory remains under its control. Kyiv Independent After talks with Zelensky and Macron, US senators warn: Putin ‘is preparing for more war.’ After visiting war-torn Kyiv and meeting President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday and French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday in Paris, U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham (R) and Richard Blumenthal (D) warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is stalling peace talks while preparing a new military offensive. The bipartisan pair is championing a sweeping sanctions bill targeting Russia’s war economy, including 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, gas, and uranium–aimed at China and India. Backed by 82 senators, the bill has yet to gain President Donald Trump’s full support, though Graham says it could help Trump pressure Putin into real negotiations. Both senators described the current moment as critical, urging swift U.S. and allied action to halt Russian aggression. Peace talks are set to resume in Istanbul, but Graham and Blumenthal dismissed them as a “charade,” saying Moscow is using diplomacy to buy time for further attacks. They praised France’s alignment and warned that failing to act now could drag NATO—and U.S. troops—into deeper conflict. New York TimesThe HillReutersAssociated Press Trump’s Appetite for Punishing Putin Is About to Get a Key Test. A bipartisan sanctions bill targeting Russia presents a critical test for President Donald Trump’s stance on punishing President Vladimir Putin. Backed by 82 senators, the measure, co-sponsored by Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal, would impose severe tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and gas. Trump has hesitated, portraying himself as a neutral mediator in peace talks, but mounting congressional momentum may limit his options. If passed, the bill would force Trump to either sign or reject a widely supported “tough on Russia” policy, risking political fallout. While some in Trump’s circle worry sanctions could derail diplomacy, others argue the bill gives Trump leverage to pressure Putin. European allies and lawmakers alike now look to Congress, not Trump, to lead the response. Whether Trump supports or blocks the bill will signal if his grip on U.S. Russia policy is loosening amid bipartisan frustration with Moscow’s continued aggression and stalled peace efforts. Bloomberg Trump ‘very surprised, disappointed’ at Russian attacks on Ukraine amid peace talks. President Donald Trump expressed his disappointment over Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities amid ongoing peace negotiations. Speaking at a news conference in the Oval Office on Friday, Trump said he was “very surprised” and “very disappointed,” noting, “I don’t like being surprised.” He criticized President Vladimir Putin’s actions during what he believed were promising talks, referencing deadly strikes on cities like Kyiv between May 24–26. Despite the attacks, Trump has resisted implementing proposed sanctions, arguing on May 28 that doing so might jeopardize a potential peace deal. Kyiv Independent Putin’s tough stance on a Ukraine peace plan shows his resolve on Russia’s demands. Russian President Vladimir Putin is signaling he will only accept peace with Ukraine on his terms, continuing heavy missile and drone strikes while demanding Ukraine surrender the four regions Russia annexed in 2022. While publicly open to talks and praising U.S. President Donald Trump’s diplomacy, Putin is also playing hardball—refusing a 30-day truce and setting conditions Kyiv and the West reject. Trump, once confident he could end the war swiftly, is now warning Putin against stalling and has threatened sanctions. Meanwhile, Russian forces are intensifying offensives in Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv, aiming to increase pressure ahead of further negotiations in Istanbul. Analysts say Moscow wants to demonstrate that it holds the upper hand and hopes Trump will pressure Ukraine to compromise. Putin has also reappointed Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky, known for taking a hard line, to lead Russia’s delegation. The move signals no shift in Russia’s demands and a willingness to prolong the war indefinitely. Associated Press Macron irks China with remarks over Ukraine, Taiwan, and North Korea. At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron drew sharp criticism from China after linking Russia’s war in Ukraine to potential Chinese aggression toward Taiwan. Macron warned that allowing Russia to seize Ukrainian territory without consequence could embolden Beijing. China rebuked this as a “double standard,” insisting Taiwan is an internal matter unrelated to Ukraine. Macron also urged Asian nations to form coalitions independent of both the U.S. and China, calling for strategic autonomy and warning that failure to resolve the war in Ukraine would damage Western credibility in Asia. He further warned China that if it fails to stop North Korea from aiding Russia in Ukraine, NATO could be drawn into the Indo-Pacific. Macron’s remarks reflect France’s evolving stance amid growing geopolitical instability, while China’s downgraded participation in the summit highlighted its disapproval of such Western messaging. Politico EUReutersReuters Moody’s maintains ‘Ca’ rating on Ukraine as effects of war continue. Moody’s has reaffirmed Ukraine’s ‘Ca’ credit rating, reflecting the severe economic damage of the ongoing war with Russia and uncertainty surrounding peace talks. The agency noted subdued growth due to security risks, labor shortages, and damage to energy infrastructure. Ukraine recently defaulted on a $500 million payment on its GDP warrants. Moody’s projects GDP growth to slow to 2.5% in 2025. Fitch also maintains Ukraine’s rating at “Restricted Default.” ReutersReuters Thousands of Ukraine’s children vanished into Russia. This one made it back. Illia Matviienko’s return from Russian captivity highlights the broader tragedy of tens of thousands of Ukrainian children forcibly taken during the war. After surviving the siege of Mariupol and losing his mother, Illia was taken by Russian troops, hospitalized, and nearly adopted under a new identity. His grandmother, Olena, spotted him in a propaganda video and undertook a dangerous cross-border mission to rescue him. Illia’s story has become a symbol in Ukraine’s fight to repatriate abducted children—an issue central to peace negotiations and cited in war crimes charges against President Vladimir Putin. Despite international pressure, only around 1,300 of the estimated 19,500–100,000 taken children have been returned. Many, like Illia, face identity erasure, reeducation, or illegal adoption in Russia.Washington Post ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, May 30-Sunday, June 1. SUNDAY– Russia’s growing drone output is overwhelming Ukraine’s defenses, with many UAVs now bypassing interception. In parallel, President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed a broad-based delegation for peace talks in Istanbul on Monday, while Russia continues to delay presenting formal negotiation terms. SATURDAY– Russian officials continue to assert territorial ambitions in Ukraine that extend beyond the four oblasts Russia has illegally annexed. State Duma Defense Committee Chair Andrei Kartapolov warned that Ukraine risks losing cities such as Dnipro, Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv if it delays a peace settlement. The rhetoric aligns with Kremlin narratives about historical claims to eastern and southern Ukraine under the concept of “Novorossiya.” These public declarations reinforce that Russia is not pursuing good-faith negotiations but is instead committed to a prolonged military campaign, with President Vladimir Putin reportedly confident that gradual advances can eventually yield victory. Concurrently, Putin signed a May 30 decree enabling the state takeover of defense enterprises that fail to meet wartime production targets, thereby preparing Russia’s economy for a long-term war and possibly a future confrontation with NATO. FRIDAY–Russian United Nations envoy Vasily Nebenzya warned that Ukraine must accept peace on Russia’s terms or face defeat, reiterating demands that the West stop arming Ukraine and that Kyiv end its mobilization efforts. Other Russian officials echoed calls to address the “root causes” of the war, claims often framed by Moscow as NATO expansion and supposed discrimination against Russian speakers. Despite this rhetoric, Russia is sending the same low-level delegation to Istanbul as it did in May, signaling its lack of commitment to good-faith negotiations. Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Vovchansk, Toretsk, and western Zaporizhia, while Russian forces gained ground in Sumy Oblast and near Lyman, Toretsk, Kurakhove, Novopavlivka, and Velyka Novosilka. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War Saturday-Institute for the Study of WarFriday-Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE Conservative nationalist Karol Nawrocki wins Poland’s presidential election. Conservative historian Karol Nawrocki narrowly won Poland’s presidential runoff with 50.89% of the vote, defeating liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski in a result that highlights Poland’s deep ideological divide. Nawrocki, backed by the former ruling party Law and Justice and supported by President Donald Trump, is expected to steer Poland in a more nationalist and euroskeptic direction. He campaigned on a promise to ensure policies favor Poles over other nationalities, including refugees from neighboring Ukraine. Though Poland’s prime minister holds most executive power, the president wields influence over foreign policy and can veto legislation — a power that will likely frustrate the reform agenda of pro-European Union centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Nawrocki, 42, is a political newcomer known for promoting patriotic narratives and opposing progressive social trends. His victory was celebrated by Trump allies, including U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who hinted at stronger military ties under his leadership. Nawrocki replaces conservative President Andrzej Duda on Aug. 6. Associated PressReutersPolitico EUWall Street Journal America’s next top general in Europe will also lead NATO forces, officials say. President Donald Trump is expected to nominate Air Force Lieutenant General Alexus Grynkewich as the next Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), maintaining the long-standing tradition of a U.S. general leading NATO forces. Trump privately informed NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte of the decision, easing allies’ concerns that the U.S. might relinquish the post amid broader calls for Europe to take more responsibility for its defense. While the administration continues to pressure Europe to increase defense spending and has discussed future troop reductions, retaining U.S. leadership at NATO signals continued engagement for now. Grynkewich would succeed General Christopher Cavoli, who oversaw U.S. military support for Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion. Reuters State Department questions Europe’s commitment to democracy. The Trump administration has sharply shifted its foreign policy posture by openly criticizing Western European allies for alleged democratic backsliding, particularly on free speech, while softening its stance toward authoritarian regimes. The State Department, under Secretary Marco Rubio, has launched a new “Office of Natural Rights” and imposed visa restrictions on European officials, citing concerns over social media regulation and political expression. Critics, including former diplomats, have called the move hypocritical, given the administration’s record on democratic norms and its delayed release of the annual human rights report, which is reportedly being edited to reflect President Donald Trump’s worldview. This pivot has strained transatlantic relations, puzzled European leaders, and raised concerns that the U.S. is politicizing human rights to advance a populist agenda. Washington Post German Chancellor Merz to meet Trump in Washington on Thursday. Germany’s new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, will travel to Washington to meet U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday, German and U.S. officials said on Saturday. This will be Merz’s first visit to the United States since taking office on May 6, and comes amid high tensions between the trans-Atlantic partners over trade and the Russian war in Ukraine. ReutersPolitico EUAssociated PressBloomberg Saab CEO sees Europe streamlining defense demands amid spending push. Saab CEO Micael Johansson said Saturday that European countries need to streamline defense requirements to create scale and efficiency as they ramp up military spending. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Johansson warned against each nation tailoring unique systems, which complicates production and interoperability. With European Union members expected to raise defense spending targets above 2% of GDP under U.S. pressure, Johansson said Europe must boost capabilities even if the Ukraine war ends. He also highlighted growing international defense collaboration, including technology transfers, and noted Saab’s focus on unmanned fighter systems to reduce pilot risk in high-threat environments. Reuters UK announces billions in fresh defense splurge amid worries about Russia. The U.K. will unveil its most ambitious defense overhaul since the Cold War on Tuesday, aiming to counter growing threats from Russia and meet rising NATO expectations. The £3 billion initiative, led by Defense Secretary John Healey and guided by former NATO chief George Robertson, includes six new munitions factories, upgrades to military housing, and the procurement of 7,000 long-range weapons. The plan boosts U.K. munitions spending to £6 billion over four years and sets targets of 2.5% of GDP for defense by 2027, rising to 3% by the early 2030s. Britain is also preparing for cyberwarfare with a new cyber command and “Digital Targeting Web.” Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the strategy sends a clear “message to Moscow” that Britain is ready to fight if necessary. The review comes as NATO debates raising defense spending to 5% of GDP, amid pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump for Europe to bolster its own security. Politico EUAssociated PressBloomberg Sweden on Track Toward 5% NATO Target, Defense Minister Says. Sweden is on track to meet NATO’s proposed defense spending goal of 5% of GDP, with 3.5% allocated to pure military expenditures and 1.5% to related defense activities by 2030, according to Defense Minister Pål Jonson. Speaking on Saturday, Jonson emphasized Europe’s growing urgency to bolster defense in response to Russian aggression. He warned that after any peace deal with Ukraine; Russia is likely to rebuild rapidly and reposition forces near Baltic and Nordic states. Swedish intelligence aligns with Danish assessments that Russia could be ready for a large-scale attack on Europe within five years. Bloomberg EU’s Kallas welcomes Trump’s ‘tough love’ on arms spending. European Union foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas, speaking Saturday at a defense forum in Singapore, described U.S. pressure on Europe to boost defense spending as “tough love,” adding, “it’s love nonetheless, so it’s better than no love.” Responding to U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s comments that Europe must “own more of their own security,” Kallas acknowledged internal divisions but noted Europe had shifted toward backing its peace project with hard defense. She emphasized the interlink between European and Pacific security, citing Chinese support for Russia and North Korean fighters in Ukraine. The EU recently adopted a €150 billion defense package. Politico EU Sweden will intensify insurance checks on foreign ships as concerns about Russia escalate. Sweden is tightening maritime oversight amid growing concerns over Russia’s shadow fleet. Starting July 1, the Swedish Coast Guard and Maritime Administration will collect insurance data not only from vessels docking at Swedish ports but also from those passing through its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone. The move targets aging, poorly maintained ships used by Russia to transport oil, gas, and stolen Ukrainian grain, many of which are already under European Union sanctions. The urgency of this initiative was underscored on Sunday after the Panama-flagged tanker Meshka, en route to Russia’s port of Vysotsk with nearly 1 million liters of oil, ran aground near Landskrona. Although no spill occurred, Swedish authorities are investigating the incident for potential negligence. Associated PressUkrainska Pravda EU officially retires its ‘no cherry-picking’ Brexit line. The European Union has officially dropped its longstanding “no cherry-picking” stance on Brexit, signaling a more flexible approach to UK relations. EU Ambassador to the UK Pedro Serrano called the phrase “no longer helpful,” reflecting a shift toward pragmatic cooperation. At a recent London summit, Brussels and London agreed to explore sector-specific agreements on energy, agri-foods, fishing, carbon trading, law enforcement, and youth visas—areas where mutual interests align. The roadmap anticipates dynamic alignment with EU rules for UK participation. Formal negotiations will begin once the European Commission secures member state mandates, with priority given to time-sensitive issues like fishing and energy. Both sides expressed optimism. Politico EU

THE MIDDLE EAST U.S. envoy says Hamas response to hostage deal ‘totally unacceptable.’ U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff on Saturday called Hamas’s response to a Gaza ceasefire proposal backed by President Donald Trump “totally unacceptable,” saying it sets back efforts to end the 20-month war. The proposal called for a 60-day truce during which Hamas would release 10 living hostages and 18 bodies in exchange for over 1,200 Palestinian prisoners, while negotiations for a permanent ceasefire would continue. Hamas sought amendments, including phased hostage releases, complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and firm U.S. guarantees that the war would end. The group also demanded unrestricted humanitarian aid and reconstruction support. Israel approved the deal, but opposes Hamas’s conditions, insisting on the group’s disarmament and dissolution. Despite Trump’s earlier optimism, Witkoff said Hamas’s demands “only take us backward.” The humanitarian crisis worsens amid resumed Israeli strikes, internal Palestinian discontent with Hamas, and looted aid shipments. Talks remain stalled as both sides hold to opposing goals. Wall Street Journal ReutersAxiosNew York Times Israel denies Gaza ministry accusations that it killed more than 30 aid seekers. At least 31 Palestinians were killed and nearly 200 injured near a U.S.-backed aid distribution site in Rafah, southern Gaza, on Sunday, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry and the International Committee of the Red Cross. Eyewitnesses and medics allege Israeli gunfire caused the casualties as thousands sought food; all those killed reportedly suffered gunshot wounds to the head or chest. The Israeli military denied firing at civilians near or within the aid center but acknowledged earlier warning shots about a kilometer away. The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), which operates the site, said aid was distributed “without incident” and blamed “false reports” on Hamas. Critics, including the UN, accuse the GHF of bypassing humanitarian norms and forcing starving civilians into chaotic, unsafe conditions. Philippe Lazzarini of UNRWA called the scene a “death trap.” The incident comes amid stalled ceasefire talks and growing criticism of both Israel’s conduct and the flawed aid system. Reuters CNNNew York Times Who is Mohammed Sinwar, the Hamas military figure Israel says it killed? An Israeli strike on Gaza’s European Hospital complex on May 13 killed Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, believed by Israel to be the group’s military wing commander. The strike also killed Muhammad Shabana, commander of Hamas’s Rafah brigade, and at least 28 others. Hamas has not confirmed these claims. Mohammed Sinwar, long sought by Israel and nicknamed “the Shadow Man,” grew up in a Khan Younis refugee camp. He allegedly helped plan the October 7 attacks and rose in power after his brother’s death, overseeing military operations and ceasefire talks. Highly secretive, Sinwar had survived six assassination attempts and was instrumental in the 2006 kidnapping of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. His death follows Israel’s targeted killings of Hamas leaders and reflects ongoing efforts to weaken the group’s leadership in Gaza, though analysts note this could empower Hamas’s overseas leadership, which is seen as more open to negotiations. Washington Post Saudi Arabian FM says Israel’s move to block Ramallah meeting proof of ‘extremism’ . Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan has condemned Israel’s refusal to allow a planned visit by Arab ministers to the West Bank, calling it evidence of Israel’s “extremism and rejection of peace.” The ministers, part of an Arab contact group, were scheduled to meet Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah. Israel claimed the ministers intended to take part in a “provocative meeting,” while Palestinian and Arab officials said the delegation aimed to discuss ending the Gaza war, supporting the Palestinian Authority, and promoting a Saudi French U.N. initiative for a roadmap to Palestinian statehood. Ayman Odeh, an Israeli Arab lawmaker, argued that Israel blocked the visit to prevent strengthening the Palestinian Authority. The Saudi French conference is set for June 17-20 in New York, aiming to secure international recognition of a Palestinian state and discuss post-ceasefire security and reconstruction in Gaza. Reuters AxiosNew York Times Iran poised to dismiss US nuclear proposal, says Iranian diplomat . Iran is expected to reject a U.S. proposal aimed at resolving the long-standing nuclear dispute, according to a senior Iranian diplomat. The proposal, delivered by Oman’s Foreign Minister as part of mediation efforts, fails to address Iran’s key demands, notably regarding uranium enrichment and the immediate removal of U.S. sanctions. While the U.S. suggests lifting nuclear-related sanctions gradually, Iran insists on their full and immediate removal, citing the significant impact on its oil-based economy. The U.S. continues to maintain its position against uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, which Iran defends as necessary for peaceful nuclear purposes. Iran’s nuclear negotiation committee, guided by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, views the U.S. proposal as one-sided and impractical. The current U.S. administration, under President Trump’s renewed “maximum pressure” strategy, has intensified sanctions and threatened military action. Since Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and reimposition of sanctions in 2018, Iran has progressively violated the deal’s terms. Reuters U.S. gives Iran updated nuclear deal offer . The U.S. has sent Iran a written proposal aimed at breaking the deadlock in nuclear talks, centered on Tehran’s demand to continue uranium enrichment. The plan, influenced by Oman, includes creating a regional consortium to enrich uranium for civilian use under international monitoring, though Washington wants the enrichment facilities outside Iran. Another option discussed involves the Islamic Republic suspending enrichment in exchange for recognition of its right to do so. Talks have stalled as Iran insists on enrichment rights, while the U.S. opposes them. Meanwhile, the IAEA reports the country now has enough enriched uranium for 10 nuclear bombs and continues to withhold information on undeclared sites. The U.S. hopes to first reach a basic agreement before moving to technical details. Iran says it will respond based on its national interests. Axios IAEA releases definitive report detailing Iran’s past secret nuclear activities. A confidential IAEA report has revealed that Tehran conducted coordinated, secret nuclear activities with undeclared materials at three sites under investigation: Lavisan-Shian, Varamin, and Turquzabad. These findings, presented to the IAEA Board of Governors, show a long-standing undeclared nuclear program in Iran, with the use of uranium metal for tests linked to nuclear weapons development. The report, a stern warning from the nuclear watchdog, has prompted the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany to push for a resolution declaring Iran in violation of its non-proliferation obligations. The Islamic Republic, which denies pursuing nuclear weapons, dismissed the report as “politically motivated” and threatened to retaliate. On Sunday, however, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi asserted that he had underscored Iran’s “continuous cooperation” in a conversation with IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi. Meanwhile, Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, close to weapons-grade levels, continues to grow, raising alarms internationally. The country now has enough material for roughly 10 nuclear weapons. The disclosure is expected to complicate ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and may eventually bring Iran before the U.N. Security Council. Reuters Associated PressWall Street Journal Washington PostAssociated Press Syrian leader faces the challenge of foreign militants who helped him win power. In the wake of leader Bashar al-Assad’s fall, new Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa is facing mounting challenges from the foreign fighters who once helped him seize power. Many of these Islamist militants, hailing from the Middle East, Europe and Central Asia, are now deeply embedded in Syria, complicating U.S. demands for their expulsion in exchange for easing sanctions. Though Sharaa has integrated some into the military and offered citizenship, tensions remain. Islamist hard-liners criticize his reluctance to impose sharia law and accuse him of collaborating with Western powers, like the U.S. and Turkey, to target extremist factions. Despite efforts to contain them by assigning roles or restricting activities, the risk of sectarian violence and internal discord persists. Sharaa’s balancing act, which involves appeasing his supporters, placating foreign allies, and managing his militant backers, is under growing scrutiny, especially as foreign fighters fear returning home to persecution. With rising dissatisfaction among hard-liners, and international pressure, Sharaa’s leadership remains precarious. Washington Post Islamic State Says It Targeted Syrian Forces in Bombings .The Islamic State (ISIS) has claimed responsibility for two bombings in Syria, attacks that markits first direct attack on the new government since it took power in December. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the bombings killed and wounded government soldiers and militia members in Sweida Province, where ISIS has been largely inactive for a decade. The attacks coincide with renewed sectarian tensions and growing anti-government sentiment in the region. The U.S. has increased troop presence in Syria following Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, citing the threat of an ISIS resurgence. Syrian and U.S. intelligence has foiled several recent ISIS plots, including attacks in Damascus. New York Times Syria and Saudi Arabia agree to boost economic cooperation after Western sanctions eased . Syria and Saudi Arabia have announced plans to boost economic cooperation to benefit both nations and create jobs for Syrians after Western sanctions on Damascus were eased. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, visiting Damascus over the weekend, stressed the importance of reactivating Syria’s economy, which has been dormant for decades. Saudi businessmen are expected to explore investments in oil, infrastructure, IT, and agriculture. Saudi Arabia and Qatar also pledged financial aid to Syria’s public sector. This meeting follows Syria’s recent energy agreement with Qatari, Turkish, and American companies to rebuild its electricity grid, signaling a new era of global cooperation. Associated Press

ASIA & OCEANIA Hegseth Warns Allies About China, Presses Defense Spending. At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Saturday, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued his most forceful warning yet about China, declaring that a Chinese attempt to conquer Taiwan would bring “devastating consequences” and that such a threat “could be imminent.” He urged Indo-Pacific allies to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, citing growing Chinese aggression and warning against Beijing’s economic leverage. Hegseth emphasized that the Trump administration prioritizes the region and seeks deterrence, not conflict. China responded angrily, with its foreign ministry denouncing the remarks as “deplorable” and steeped in a “Cold War mentality.” The Chinese Defense Ministry accused the U.S. of provoking instability and turning the Asia-Pacific into a “powder keg.” Rear Admiral Hu Gangfeng, leading China’s downgraded delegation, called Hegseth’s accusations “groundless” and intended to stoke confrontation. China’s embassy warned the U.S. not to “play with fire” on Taiwan, declaring it an internal matter. BloombergReutersWall Street JournalReutersAssociated Press Europe bristles at US proposals at Asian gathering, India-Pakistan hostility on show. At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, longstanding U.S.-China tensions were overshadowed by a growing divide between the U.S. and Europe over military commitments in Asia. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned of China’s “imminent” threat but urged European nations to prioritize security on their own continent, allowing the U.S. to focus on Asia. Some European leaders, however, pushed back, arguing that European and Pacific security are interconnected. French President Emmanuel Macron stressed his country’s Indo-Pacific ties and proposed a “third path” balancing relations with both Beijing and Washington. German Chief of Defense Carsten Breuer asserted that Berlin would not cease participation in Asia-Pacific security. Regional military analysts noted that Europe’s entrenched commercial and defense ties in Asia, including long-term deployments and defense deals, complicate any rapid shift in focus. Meanwhile, Finland’s defense minister agreed with Hegseth’s stance, highlighting the need for European countries to strengthen their own defense to free up U.S. resources for Asia. Reuters Bloomberg Philippines defense chief says China needs to overcome ‘deficit of trust.’ Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro stated that China is facing a “deficit of trust and credibility” that hampers the restoration of its strained defense ties with the Philippines. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Teodoro highlighted China’s growing military assertiveness in the South China Sea, describing it as both expansive and aggressive. He expressed frustration with Chinese military officials, who he said stick to propaganda-driven talking points and serve the Communist Party’s interests. Teodoro emphasized that China’s intensified activities have particularly targeted the Philippines, even more so than other ASEAN countries. Despite this, he voiced confidence in the Washington-Manila security alliance, reiterating the goal of peacefully deterring China’s advances. Reuters Bloomberg Chinese spying on Dutch industries ‘intensifying’: Dutch defense minister. Chinese espionage efforts targeting the Dutch, particularly in the semiconductor sector, are intensifying, according to Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue security meeting in Singapore, Brekelmans highlighted that China is keen on acquiring intellectual property from the Dutch semiconductor industry, which is technologically advanced. He cited intelligence reports identifying China as the main cyber threat to the Netherlands, with continued and increasing activity since last year. Dutch intelligence agencies have previously attributed cyber espionage to China, revealing in 2023 that Chinese state-backed hackers infiltrated a Dutch military network. Brekelmans warned that Beijing is leveraging its economic influence for geopolitical purposes and pressuring the Netherlands. He emphasized the need for the country and the EU to reduce dependence on China for critical raw materials and to protect key industries and interests from foreign interference. China’s foreign ministry has not responded but routinely denies cyber espionage allegations. Reuters Politico EU North Korea Gets a Weapons Bonanza from Russia . North Korea is rapidly modernizing its military, showcasing new weapons including AI-directed attack drones, advanced tanks, naval destroyers with supersonic missiles, and new air-defense systems. This surge comes amid its deepening military ties with Russia, fueled by mutual needs: Pyongyang supplies artillery and missiles for Russia’s war in Ukraine, and in return, receives fuel, food, and military technology. Analysts warn this collaboration is shifting the military balance on the Korean Peninsula. Kim Jong-un’s strategy has revitalized North Korea’s conventional forces, previously hampered by sanctions and economic woes, and allowed his military to gain real-world combat experience in Ukraine. Moscow’s support has helped North Korea improve its outdated military capabilities, including air defense and drone technology. However, the full extent of Russia’s willingness to share sensitive technology remains uncertain. This growing alliance challenges U.N. sanctions and creates new security concerns for the region, particularly for South Korea and the U.S. New York Times China calls the shots in Myanmar’s civil war. China has become the dominant force in Myanmar’s civil war by securing its core interests, most notably a 2,500-kilometer oil-and-gas pipeline from Ramree Island to Yunnan province. Since the 2021 coup, Beijing has adroitly balanced relations with the junta and rebel groups to ensure the pipeline’s uninterrupted flow. A key player is the Arakan Army (AA), a powerful ethnic Rakhine militia that now controls much of Rakhine State. Initially at war with the junta, the AA has avoided targeting Chinese infrastructure and even tacitly accepted China’s deployment of mercenaries to protect pipeline assets. China, in turn, has cultivated ties with the AA as insurance against junta instability. Similar dynamics play out across central and eastern Myanmar, where resistance groups have refrained from attacking the pipeline due to Chinese leverage over arms supplies. While Western support for democracy has faltered, all sides in Myanmar’s conflict now recognize that Beijing—not Washington—is the ultimate power broker. The Economist India confirms that it lost fighter jets in brief clashes with Pakistan . Indian military chief Anil Chauhan has confirmed for the first time that India lost an unspecified number of fighter jets during its short-lived conflict with Pakistan in May but dismissed Islamabad’s claims of downing six jets as “absolutely incorrect.” Chauhan underscored the importance of understanding the tactical errors that led to the losses, rather than focusing on the numbers. He acknowledged that India quickly rectified its mistakes and resumed operations, conducting precision strikes deep inside Pakistan. Chauhan also downplayed the risk of nuclear escalation, calling it “far-fetched,” and highlighted open communication channels with Pakistan during the crisis. The conflict was the worst between the two nuclear-armed neighbors in 50 years, sparked by a deadly attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir that New Delhi blamed on Islamabad. Chauhan dismissed Pakistan’s claims of Chinese weaponry effectiveness and stressed that India has established clear red lines, with the conflict’s future stability depending on Pakistan’s actions. Bloomberg The IndependentAl JazeeraReuters India launches global charm offensive after conflict with Pakistan. India is launching a major diplomatic campaign, deploying lawmakers and ex-ambassadors to over 20 nations to reshape international perceptions after its recent military clashes with Pakistan. The conflict, sparked by a deadly attack in Kashmir, saw India carry out its deepest strikes inside Pakistan in decades. Prime Minister Modi’s government is portraying these actions as part of the global fight against terrorism, but critics say New Delhi has struggled to garner the support it expected, with many countries viewing India and Pakistan as equals. India’s outreach includes engaging with U.N. Security Council nations and diaspora communities, while emphasizing cultural diplomacy. However, the campaign has faced internal criticism, with opposition figures accusing the government of bypassing parliamentary debate and focusing more on optics than substantive foreign policy. Meanwhile, Islamabad is planning its own diplomatic efforts to counter India’s narrative. Despite India’s global push, many observers note the challenges of controlling the narrative abroad as easily as at home. Washington Post India and Pakistan’s Air Battle Is Over. Their Water War Has Begun. India and Pakistan are dealing with renewed tensions over water sharing following their recent military clashes. India suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty—a key 1960 agreement governing the use of the Indus River system—after accusing Pakistan of backing a deadly April attack in Kashmir. Though India claims its move is temporary and conditional on Pakistan renouncing terrorism, critics see it as an effort to pressure Islamabad into revising a treaty India views as favoring its neighbor. Pakistan, heavily reliant on the Indus waters for agriculture and flood management, called the suspension an “act of war,” warning of severe consequences if it continues. Both countries are grappling with climate change, population growth, and the risks of disrupted water flows. Analysts argue New Delhi’s tactics are aimed at demonstrating strength and responding to its domestic water demands, while Pakistan’s already fragile water security faces heightened uncertainty. New York Times Russia accepts Taliban’s nominated ambassador to Moscow. The Kremlin has officially accepted the Taliban’s nomination of an ambassador to Moscow, the Afghan foreign ministry announced Sunday, signaling deepening ties between the two countries. This move follows Russia’s April decision to suspend its longstanding designation of the Taliban as a terrorist organization, a step towards normalizing relations with Afghanistan’s leadership. Although no nation has formally recognized the Taliban government since its 2021 takeover, China was the first to accept a Taliban ambassador in 2023, followed by other countries like Pakistan. Afghan Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi expressed hope for expanded cooperation with Russia in various fields. Diplomats note that formally presenting an ambassador’s credentials to a foreign head of state signals a shift towards official recognition. The growing relationship comes as both Russia and Afghanistan face global sanctions and isolation, prompting them to seek alternative partnerships. Reuters

AFRICA Insurgents overrun Mali base, killing dozens of soldiers, sources say . An Al Qaeda-linked group, Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), claimed responsibility for a deadly attack on a military base in Mali’s Boulkessi region on Sunday, where over 30 soldiers were killed, according to security sources. The Malian army confirmed a withdrawal but did not provide official casualty numbers. JNIM has also claimed recent attacks across the restive Sahel region, including in Burkina Faso and Niger, with over 400 soldiers reportedly killed since early May. The violence exacerbates instability in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, all governed by juntas that replaced civilian governments amid growing jihadist threats. Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS Senators call Trump administration to reinstate the cyber review board for Salt Typhoon investigation. Several Senate Democrats, including Mark Warner, Ron Wyden, Richard Blumenthal, and Elissa Slotkin, have urged Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to reestablish the Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB), which was disbanded earlier this year under the Trump administration. The board was investigating the Salt Typhoon cyberattacks, in which Chinese-linked hackers breached networks of major U.S. telecom firms. The senators criticized the CSRB’s dismissal, saying it deprived the public of a full account of the scope and impact of the breaches, and stressed the need for root-cause analyses and recommendations to strengthen cybersecurity. The CSRB, established in 2021, had conducted reviews of major cyber incidents, including the Log4j vulnerability and attacks linked to China. Despite its termination, Secretary Noem has publicly questioned why more isn’t known about Salt Typhoon. The senators warned that disbanding the CSRB has undermined U.S. cyber defense readiness, with the DHS and CISA declining to comment on the situation. The Record Meta says it dismantled covert influence operations tied to China, Iran, Romania . Meta researchers have reported disrupting three covert influence campaigns from China, Iran, and Romania aimed at manipulating political discourse across multiple countries using fake social media profiles. The China-linked network targeted users in Myanmar, Taiwan, and Japan, spreading pro-Beijing propaganda and attacking political and military leaders. The Iranian campaign focused on Azeri-speaking audiences in Azerbaijan and Turkey, using fake female journalist and activist profiles to criticize U.S. and Israeli policies. Linked to Iran’s Storm-2035 network, it used AI-generated content. The Romanian operation targeted domestic users across Meta platforms and other social media, creating fake personas to drive users to off-platform sites. Despite sophisticated efforts, it failed to generate real engagement. Meta stated these campaigns were removed before they built significant audiences. Romania has previously faced influence efforts linked to Russia, with the Interior Ministry noting a recent disinformation push aimed at disrupting the second round of its presidential election. The RecordThe Hacker News DDoS incident disrupts internet for thousands in Moscow. A massive DDoS attack targeted Russian internet provider ASVT last week, disrupting services for tens of thousands of people in Moscow and nearby areas for several days. The attack, detected on Tuesday, continued through Friday, affecting ASVT’s mobile app, website, and intercom systems in large residential complexes. ASVT attributed the attack to Ukraine’s pro-Kyiv “IT Army,” although no official claim has been made. The incident mirrors a similar cyberattack in March that affected over 200,000 residents via another provider, Lovit. Russian telecom firms have increasingly been targeted by pro-Ukrainian hackers amid the ongoing conflict. The Record Under new legislation, Australian ransomware victims must now inform the government if they pay up . Last week, Australia passed a law obliging organizations earning over AUD $3 million to report ransomware payments within 72 hours to the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD). The new law targets about 6.5% of businesses and aims to improve visibility into ransomware incidents, which are significantly underreported. Companies failing to report could face civil penalties. The law comes amid rising cyberattacks against Australian businesses, such as Optus and Medibank. Critics argue the mandate may only shame companies without reducing ransomware attacks. The U.K. is considering a similar approach, possibly banning payments by public and critical infrastructure organizations and giving the government authority to block certain payments. Despite reports that ransomware payments dropped globally in 2024, experts like Jeff Wichman believe many victims still pay. He argues stronger law enforcement and company resilience, rather than regulations, are key to countering ransomware, as payments don’t guarantee recovery and often enable further attacks. The RecordInfosecurity Magazine

The rupture in the transatlantic relationship has left European leaders struggling to know how to think, let alone act, with any autonomy. Europe most urgently needs a mind of its own on the Middle East.

Tragically, EU governments were just beginning to turn the page after a year and a half of complicity with the Israeli government’s war crimes in Gaza. Donald Trump’s obscene plans for a Gaza “riviera” and “humanitarian” initiatives that breach humanitarian principles were creating distance with the US, and European governments were starting to craft their own course.

France and Saudi Arabia had planned a conference on the two-state solution, which might have led to Paris’s recognition of Palestinian statehood. More significantly, the EU had accepted a review of the EU-Israel association agreement, which, in light of Israel’s war crimes, should lead to the suspension of EU preferential trade with Tel Aviv, but now may not.

However, Israel’s military attack on Iran and the US’s ambiguous yet evident support for this belligerence have upended Europe’s shift towards greater autonomy and moral clarity.

Of course, there is no love for the Iranian regime in EU capitals because of its human rights violations and military cooperation with Russia, notably in the war in Ukraine. Moreover, Europe rightly remains adamant that Iran should not have nuclear weapons. There is particular alarm over the International Atomic Energy Agency’s most recent report on Iran’s breaches of the non-proliferation treaty.

But we have traditionally stood firm on the need to resolve the Iranian nuclear question through diplomacy. This is why in the early 2000s European negotiators invented the “E3/EU format”, comprising diplomats from France, Germany and the UK alongside the EU high representative to mediate on Iran’s nuclear file.

Today that world is gone. When Trump launched a direct negotiation with Iran, Europe was sidelined, excluded from any mediation process. Now, with Israel’s military assault on Iran, we have failed to position ourselves with the necessary clarity: where was the denunciation of the bombing as a breach of the UN charter (article 2), and the additional protocol to the Geneva conventions (article 56), which specifically prohibits attacks against a state’s nuclear facilities? It is one thing to uphold Israel’s (or any other state’s) right to self-defence. Quite another to legitimise pre-emptive strikes.

This chronic impotence arises because Europe has traditionally viewed the world through a transatlantic lens. On most international issues, it has, for decades, worked hand-in-glove with Washington, using aid, trade, diplomacy, sanctions, defence and EU integration to support US foreign policy aims, convinced that the overarching values and interests were shared.

Only on rare occasions have European countries openly opposed the US – as France and Germany did with the Bush administration over the US-led war on Iraq in 2003. Even where there is a difference of approach, Europe has sought to influence US foreign policy by mitigating its hard edges rather than thwarting it. European mediation on the Iran nuclear weapons question, for example, led to the joint comprehensive plan of action in 2015. And as the global rivalry between the US and China deepened, EU governments distanced themselves from US calls for decoupling the western and Chinese economies, instead promoting the softer alternative of “de-risking”.

Trump’s foreign policy wrecking ball, however, has created a world in which Europeans have to stand on their own feet. And they are struggling.

On Ukraine, Europe has learned the hard way and stands firm, maintaining financial and military assistance to Kyiv while exploring ways of filling the gaps in the event of US disengagement.

But apart from Ukraine, we are at a loss. It is true that Europe has toughened up on Beijing; it is no longer starry-eyed about China’s belt and road initiative and the strategic risk posed by Beijing’s policies in Europe. The EU has started screening Chinese investments in Europe and raised tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

But Trump’s mixed signals mean that Europe needs to figure out alone what it thinks and wants from Beijing. The EU cannot afford a trade war on multiple fronts, especially if its own trade talks with Washington derail.

European governments also know that there is no way they can meet climate neutrality by 2050, now enshrined in law, without cooperating with China, which is a leader in the green economy. Even in the unlikely event of a comprehensive “deal” between Trump and Xi Jinping, it’s hard to imagine Europeans reverting to the old days in which China was solely viewed as an economic partner and ally in defence of multilateralism. Europeans need to develop their own ideas and policies independently of an erratic White House, but they don’t know how to get there.

In its political wavering on the latest war, Europe has neither won favour from Washington nor improved its standing with Israel. In the meantime, it has lost all credibility as an honest broker with Iran. The cherry on the cake is that Russia has angled itself as a possible mediator instead, with Trump winking at this preposterous proposition.

The risk is that Europe will also now block its own route to a more morally principled approach to the horrors in Gaza: the coming days will tell if the EU suspends its trade agreement with Israel, or if that too is put on the back burner.

Ukraine is Europe’s foremost security interest. Yet war, chaos and nuclear proliferation in the Middle East – which could be the unwanted consequence of the Israel-Iran war – are more consequential for Europe than for the US. So far, the European response is a far cry from thought or action, independent of the US.

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The EU is unlikely to suspend its association agreement with Israel in the context of its current conflict with Iran, sources familiar with the issue have told Euronews.

Last month a majority of the EU foreign ministers backed a Dutch proposal to review the bloc’s ties with Israel over its actions in Gaza.

The EU’s diplomatic corps, the External Action Service (EEAS), has been reviewing the bloc’s wide-ranging trade and cooperation agreement with Israel over its military offensive in Gaza and the West Bank as well as its blocking of food, fuel, water and basic medical supplies to the besieged population.

The report was initiated to establish whether Israel violated its human rights obligations under Article 2 of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, a broad-ranging pact that defines the trading and diplomatic relations between both sides.

On Monday, EU foreign ministers will debate the review, with several EU diplomatic sources saying it expected to find Israel in breach of the provisions.

But two sources familiar with the issue told Euronews that member states will not respond by suspending in all, or even part the agreement with Israel due to its conflict with Iran.

Some countries remain keen to push for a suspension. “We can safely assume what the review will say; if it’s going to be in any way credible it’ll say Israel is in breach of Article 2,” an EU diplomat from a country which supported the review told Euronews, adding: “The main matter of business is getting a ceasefire in Gaza – and whatever we decide to do, it should be aimed at getting at that.”

But a momentum of pressure recently applied to Israel has now slowed due to the conflict with Iran, the two sources said.

“The pendulum has swung back to [support for] Israel.”

“It’s unlikely the EU will suspend EU-Israel agreement due to Iran Israel war,” one of the sources said.

The position of Germany in the negotiations is also critical to the discussions as a decision to suspend part of the agreement under qualified majority voting will require the weight of Germany.

Last month German chancellor Friedrich Merz shifted the support of Germany – traditionally a stalwart ally of Israel – behind the decision to review the Association Agreement, saying he no longer understood the Israeli army’s goal in Gaza.

“To harm the civilian population in such a way… can no longer be justified as a fight against terrorism,” Merz said at the time.

However, Merz has strongly supported Israel in the context of the current strikes on Iran saying at the G7 on Tuesday that “Israel is doing the dirty work for the rest of us”.

“The strikes on Iran should be additional pressure on Israel to suspend the association agreement,” Martin Konecny, who heads the European Middle East Project, told Euronews.

“But now it could create the opposite, it will literally be reduced and it brings the attention away from Gaza,” he said.

EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has reiterated EU calls for a diplomatic resolution to the Israel-Iran conflict. And again called on all sides to “abide by international law, and de-escalate the situation”.

“We will not lose sight of what is happening in Gaza… we again call for immediate full aid access, ceasefire, and the release of hostages,” she added.

Israel rejected the EU decision to review the bloc’s trade and cooperation pact with the country over its intensified offensive in Gaza.

“We completely reject the direction taken in the statement, which reflects a total misunderstanding of the complex reality Israel is facing,” Israeli foreign ministry spokesperson Oren Marmorstein said on X at the time of the decision.

9:15 AM America/New York Tuesday, June 17

Report for Tuesday, June 17, 2025 Trump departs G7 early as U.S. moves military assets to Europe and the Middle East

Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv kill 15, injure at least 114

Iran signals desire to de-escalate as G7 leaders call Tehran “source” of instability

What the capsizing and relaunching of a warship tells us about North Korea’s regime

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES Opinion: What’s Happening in L.A. May Not Stay in L.A. Walter Pincus warns that President Donald Trump’s unilateral federalization of the California National Guard amid Los Angeles immigration protests could set a dangerous constitutional precedent. Pincus details how U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer ruled Trump’s actions illegal, citing violations of both statutory authority and the Tenth Amendment. Trump activated 2,000 Guard troops without notifying Governor Gavin Newsom, as required by law, to quell protests sparked by aggressive Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids. The move, based on claims of rebellion, bypassed necessary coordination with state authorities and left open the possibility of federalizing other states’ Guards. Pincus stresses that 20 states have joined California in challenging this unprecedented power grab, arguing that the June 7 memo’s vague wording threatens state sovereignty nationwide. With the case now before the Ninth Circuit Court, Pincus concludes the outcome could have sweeping implications for the balance of power between state and federal governments. The Cipher Brief Opinion: South Korea’s New President. Ambassador Joseph DeTrani views South Korea’s new president, Lee Jae-Myung, as ushering in a hopeful era focused on peace, economic revival, and regional stability. Lee replaces Yoon Suk-Yeol, whose attempt to impose martial law damaged democratic norms. DeTrani praises Lee’s commitment to the U.S.-South Korea alliance, trilateral cooperation with Japan, and pragmatic diplomacy with neighbors such as China. While acknowledging China’s economic importance, DeTrani stresses the enduring value of the U.S. alliance, especially its security guarantees and troop presence. He supports Lee’s call for renewed inter-Korean dialogue and humanitarian outreach, urging creative U.S. engagement with North Korea. He warns against Chinese coercion. DeTrani views Lee’s presidency as an opportunity to reassert democratic values, enhance regional diplomacy, and balance relations between the U.S. and China amid heightened Indo-Pacific tensions. Ambassador Joseph DeTrani views South Korea’s new president, Lee Jae-Myung, as ushering in a hopeful era focused on peace, economic revival, and regional stability. Lee replaces Yoon Suk-Yeol, whose attempt to impose martial law damaged democratic norms. DeTrani praises Lee’s commitment to the U.S.-South Korea alliance, trilateral cooperation with Japan, and pragmatic diplomacy with neighbors such as China. While acknowledging China’s economic importance, DeTrani stresses the enduring value of the U.S. alliance, especially its security guarantees and troop presence. He supports Lee’s call for renewed inter-Korean dialogue and humanitarian outreach, urging creative U.S. engagement with North Korea. He warns against Chinese coercion. DeTrani views Lee’s presidency as an opportunity to reassert democratic values, enhance regional diplomacy, and balance relations between the U.S. and China amid heightened Indo-Pacific tensions. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS Trump leaves the G7 summit early after major warning to Tehran. President Donald Trump abruptly announced his early departure Monday from the G7 summit in Canada amid escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Just hours before leaving, Trump posted on Truth Social: “IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” His dramatic warning followed Israeli strikes in Tehran and heightened fears of broader regional war. The U.S. has supported Israel’s defense but remains officially uninvolved in the strikes. Trump cited the need to “attend to important matters” as the reason for cutting short his trip. During the summit, he finalized a trade deal with the UK. Before leaving, he also joined other leaders in signing a statement criticizing Iran. Trump had previously refused to sign the statement, but decided to do so when the draft language was adjusted. His departure canceled planned meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and others on Tuesday. Bloomberg Axios Reuters The Times of Israel Trump says he left G7 early to seek a ‘real end’ to Israel-Iran conflict, not just a ceasefire. As he departed the G7 summit in Canada, Trump told reporters he was seeking “a real end, not a cease-fire,” and that Tehran must abandon any effort to develop nuclear weapons. “I’m not too much in the mood to negotiate,” he added. Trump predicted that Israel would not be easing its attacks on Iran. “You’re going to find out over the next two days. You’re going to find out. Nobody’s slowed up so far,” a CBS journalist quoted Trump as saying on Air Force One. His remarks came as Israel and Iran traded attacks for a fifth day on Tuesday. The Iranian armed forces also warned Israel of a new wave of “fierce attacks” with “new and advanced weapons” that will intensify on Tuesday. CNN Politico EU Reuters US bolsters Trump’s Middle East military options by moving refueling aircraft, officials say. In response to escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran, the U.S. has expanded its military posture in the Middle East and Europe. Over 30 U.S. Air Force refueling aircraft have been deployed to European bases, enabling extended operations across the region. The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and its strike group are rerouting to the Middle East, joining other U.S. naval assets already positioned there. These moves provide President Donald Trump with a broader range of strategic options, though the Pentagon maintains they are defensive. While the U.S. has not joined Israel’s strikes, it has supported missile defense efforts and bolstered deterrence. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized the protection of U.S. forces. Reuters Washington Post Trump disputes intel chief Tulsi Gabbard’s prior testimony on Iran’s nuclear capabilities . President Donald Trump publicly contradicted his own Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, over Iran’s nuclear status, insisting to reporters that Iran was “very close” to developing a nuclear weapon. His assessment follows Gabbard’s testimony in March that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon and had not resumed its reportedly suspended program. Trump dismissed Gabbard’s assessment, stating to reporters on Air Force One, “I don’t care what she said. I think they were very close to having it.” U.S. intelligence had maintained that Iran is still years away from being able to produce and deliver a nuclear weapon. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, aligned with Trump, claims Israeli intelligence showed Iran was secretly accelerating its nuclear weapons development. CNN G7 leaders agree on strategy to protect critical mineral supply, draft document says. At the G7 summit in Canada, leaders provisionally agreed on a joint strategy Monday to protect critical mineral supply chains, aiming to bolster economic and national security. The draft statement—still awaiting approval from U.S. President Donald Trump—emphasizes the need for minerals markets to reflect the true costs of responsible extraction and trade. The move follows China’s April suspension of critical mineral exports, which disrupted supply to key industries. The G7 plans to counter non-market practices by diversifying mining, processing, and recycling, while enhancing coordination to mitigate future supply disruptions. Rare earths remain a strategic leverage point for Beijing. Reuters

Starmer, Trump Agree to Implement Tariff-Cutting Trade Deal. At the G7 summit in Canada, U.S. President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer finalized a trade agreement on Monday aimed at reducing tariffs and expanding market access. The deal lowers U.S. tariffs on British auto exports from 27.5% to 10% for up to 100,000 vehicles annually, and grants tariff exemptions for UK civil aerospace products. In return, the UK will increase quotas for U.S. agricultural goods, including reciprocal access for 13,000 metric tons of beef, although UK food safety standards will still apply. The agreement falls short on steel, with existing 25% tariffs remaining in place, pending a future quota to be set by the U.S. Commerce Department. The UK also pledged to address U.S. concerns over foreign ownership in its steel sector. Though symbolically important, the deal leaves unresolved issues, particularly around steel and aluminum, while serving as an early success for Trump’s broader tariff strategy. Bloomberg Reuters CNN Fact check: At G7, Trump makes false claims about Trudeau, Ukraine and immigration. At the G7 summit in Canada on Monday, President Donald Trump made several inaccurate claims. He wrongly attributed Russia’s 2014 expulsion from the G8 to former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who did not take office until 2015. The move was actually led by then-Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Trump also mischaracterized his UK trade deal as involving the European Union, which the UK exited in 2020. Additionally, he repeated the false claim that former President Joe Biden provided Ukraine with $350 billion in aid. According to the Kiel Institute, U.S. commitments totaled around $138 billion by April 2025, with actual disbursements closer to $90 billion. Trump further overstated immigration figures, claiming Biden allowed 21 million people into the U.S.; available data indicates fewer than 11 million migrant encounters occurred under Biden, with an estimated 2.2 million additional undetected entries, falling well short of Trump’s figure. CNN Trump Renews Embrace of Putin Amid Ongoing Rift With Allies. Before leaving the G7 summit in Canada a day early on Monday, President Donald Trump reignited concerns over his long standing alignment with President Vladimir Putin, criticizing Russia’s 2014 expulsion from the G8 and blaming Western leaders for the ongoing war in Ukraine. Echoing remarks he made in 2018, Trump argued Russia’s presence is needed for negotiations and emphasized his unique rapport with Putin, whom he said “speaks to me; he doesn’t speak to anybody else.” Despite Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Trump has expressed frustration with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, and has floated Putin as a potential Middle East mediator. His remarks reinforced a pattern of undermining U.S. allies while defending Moscow, raising alarm among Western leaders. Former officials like John Bolton and Daniel Price criticized Trump’s historical ignorance and his seeming desire to rehabilitate Putin rather than stand with the pro-Ukraine defense consensus. Trump’s rhetoric highlights an enduring drift toward Russian interests at odds with U.S. and NATO priorities. New York Times DHS reverses guidance that halted ICE raids on farms, hotels and restaurants. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has reversed recent guidance that would have paused immigration raids at farms, hotels, restaurants, and meatpacking plants. This shift aligns with President Trump’s push for a massive deportation campaign targeting undocumented immigrants. The earlier exemption, issued last week, came after Trump expressed concern for farmers and hospitality executives worried about losing workers. However, following pressure from White House officials—particularly immigration adviser Stephen Miller—DHS told Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on Monday to resume worksite enforcement nationwide. Trump has since ordered ICE to fully execute what he calls the largest mass deportation effort in U.S. history. ICE has been instructed to reach 3,000 arrests per day, up from the current 2,000. Industries dependent on undocumented labor continue lobbying against broad enforcement. The policy shift highlights competing interests within the administration and growing tensions between economic and political priorities. Washington Post Reuters The Independent Colombia Senator Uribe out of surgery but extremely critical, hospital says. Colombian Senator Miguel Uribe, who has been hospitalized since he was shot in the head earlier this month during a campaign event, has been transferred to emergency surgery for a brain bleed, the Santa Fe Foundation hospital said on Monday. Uribe, 39, a potential presidential candidate from the right-wing opposition, was shot in Bogota on June 7 during a rally. “Patient Miguel Uribe Turbay required transfer to surgery a few minutes ago for an urgent neurological procedure, because of clinical evidence and imaging showing an acute inter-cerebral bleed,” the hospital said in a statement. Colombian Senator Miguel Uribe, who has been hospitalized since he was shot in the head earlier this month during a campaign event, has been transferred to emergency surgery for a brain bleed, the Santa Fe Foundation hospital said on Monday. Uribe, 39, a potential presidential candidate from the right-wing opposition, was shot in Bogota on June 7 during a rally. “Patient Miguel Uribe Turbay required transfer to surgery a few minutes ago for an urgent neurological procedure, because of clinical evidence and imaging showing an acute inter-cerebral bleed,” the hospital said in a statement. Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv kill 15, injure at least 114. In one of the deadliest assaults on Kyiv in months, Russia launched a nearly 10-hour overnight barrage of drones and missiles on Tuesday, killing at least 15 and injuring 114. President Volodymyr Zelensky called the assault “one of the most horrifying attacks on Kyiv,” saying more than 440 drones and 32 missiles were launched across Ukraine overnight. Air raid sirens blared as explosions echoed across the capital, damaging buildings in at least six districts, including Solomianskyi and Sviatoshynskyi. Several residential buildings were destroyed or set ablaze, and a kindergarten and a dormitory at the Kyiv Aviation Institute were also hit. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported that a 62-year-old U.S. citizen was found dead in the Solomianskyi district near a building where medics were treating victims. While it is unclear whether a strike directly killed him, his death occurred during the attack. Rescue teams continue searching for survivors under rubble amid reports of people still trapped. The strike follows a surge in Russian assaults in May and June, marked by drone swarms followed by missile salvos to overwhelm defenses. Also, Russian strikes on Odesa early Tuesday killed 1 and injured 17 people. New York Times Kyiv Independent Cluster munitions used in overnight Russian strike on Ukraine, Kyiv mayor says. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported that emergency crews found fragments of cluster munitions in the city’s Nyvky neighborhood following a Russian missile and drone attack on Tuesday. He called it further proof of Russia’s “genocide” against Ukrainians. Cluster munitions are banned by over 100 countries due to their indiscriminate impact and danger to civilians. Though neither Russia nor Ukraine signed the treaty, rights groups have condemned their use in populated areas by both sides. Kyiv Independent Russia ramps up its summer offensive in several directions, Ukraine’s military says. Ukraine’s military reported a sharp escalation in Russia’s summer offensive across multiple fronts on Monday. Victor Tregubov, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortytsia group, said Russian forces had intensified attacks in the Novopavlivka and Kharkiv sectors. Ukraine’s General Staff recorded 99 clashes that day, including 17 repelled assaults in Novopavlivka alone. Tregubov said this marked the “expected summer increase in activity” and suggested Russia aimed to push toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, though without success. In Donetsk Oblast, Russia is attempting to encircle Kostiantynivka, a vital logistics hub, from three directions. On June 13, President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed heavy fighting along the northeastern border and noted Russian incursions in Sumy and brief cross-border actions into Dnipropetrovsk. Kyiv Independent Russian military-industrial chemical plant halts operations after Ukrainian drone strike. Ukraine’s drone strike forced the suspension of operations at Russia’s Nevinnomyssk Azot chemical plant, a major producer of ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers vital to the Kremlin’s military-industrial complex, Russian independent media outlet Astra reported on Monday. The plant supplies components for explosives and fuel, including ammonium nitrate and dual-use chemicals like melamine and methanol. Ukrainian officials say the facility supports weapons production, including grenade launchers and rocket charges. Owned by sanctioned oligarch Andrey Melnichenko, the plant’s shutdown marks a blow to Russia’s war infrastructure. Kyiv Independent Russian air defense units destroy 51 Ukrainian drones over the Belgorod region. Russian air defense units destroyed 51 Ukrainian drones over the border Belgorod region over a 3-1/2 hour period late on Monday, the Defense Ministry said. A ministry statement on the Telegram messaging app said the drones were destroyed between 8 p.m. and 11.30 p.m. in the region. Reuters Russia Is Churning Out Attack Drones. Ukraine Is Feeling the Impact. Russia has dramatically escalated its drone campaign against Ukraine in 2025, launching over 20,000 attack and decoy drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. Many of these drones are domestically produced Shahed models, part of a $1.75 billion deal with Iran that allowed Moscow to manufacture the drones on Russian soil. On June 10 alone, 315 drones and seven missiles struck Kyiv, damaging historic landmarks like St. Sophia Cathedral. Ukrainian officials say the scale and frequency of these attacks aim to saturate defenses and cause chaos. Ukraine has responded with counterstrikes, including deep drone attacks on Russian production sites. However, Ukraine’s air defenses—dependent on limited Patriot systems—remain stretched. President Trump has rebuked Russia for civilian casualties but resisted new sanctions or major military aid. Russia uses a mix of drone types and tactics, including staggered swarm attacks and missile combinations, often launched from Crimea. Ukrainian forces rely on mobile air-defense units, jets, and German systems to counter the threat. Wall Street Journal Trump hints at no more US sanctions on Russia at G7 summit. President Donald Trump signaled opposition Monday to imposing new U.S. sanctions on Russia over its war in Ukraine. He told reporters at the G7 summit in Canada that sanctions “cost the U.S. a lot of money — a tremendous amount of money,” describing them as complex and economically burdensome. Trump added, “It’s not just a one-way street,” and emphasized that sanctions involve “billions and billions of dollars.” In response to European calls for stronger action, Trump said, “Let’s see them do it first,” implying that the U.S. would not lead on additional sanctions. He also expressed a preference for pursuing stalled peace talks with Russia before taking punitive measures and questioned whether fresh sanctions would be effective without prior commitments from European allies. Politico EU Bloomberg

Trump administration disbands group focused on pressuring Russia, sources say. The Trump administration recently shut down an inter-agency working group formed to pressure Russia into advancing peace talks with Ukraine, U.S. officials told Reuters. Created earlier in 2025, the group lost momentum in May as President Trump grew disinterested in a tougher stance on Moscow. Its dissolution followed a major purge of the White House National Security Council, including key Ukraine experts. Though the group had discussed economic and covert options to curb Russian influence, it never finalized strategies. The move has raised concerns among U.S. allies, especially ahead of a key NATO summit. Reuters Zelensky to seek G7 support as Trump’s early exit puts dampener on summit. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will on Tuesday urge the Group of Seven to provide more backing for the war against Russia even after U.S. President Donald Trump left the summit early due to developments in the Middle East. Zelensky is due to meet Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the morning before attending a G7 working breakfast on “A strong and sovereign Ukraine”, accompanied by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Reuters

Ukraine’s field hospitals keep getting hit, so they are moving underground. Facing relentless Russian attacks on medical sites, Ukrainian medics have built the country’s first underground field hospital near the eastern front. Located nearly 20 feet below ground and reinforced with metal structures, the facility enables surgeries in relative safety and has withstood multiple near misses. Medics say Russia deliberately targets field hospitals—a war crime—forcing them to abandon NATO-style surface clinics in favor of concealed, fortified designs. Staff work in 48-hour shifts, treating shrapnel wounds, chemical exposure, and amputations. The hospital, largely built through donations, handles up to 400 patients daily but lacks funding for advanced equipment due to shifts in foreign aid following the change in U.S. leadership. Medics fear that superficial peace talks may lead to renewed violence if not backed by real security guarantees. Amid exhaustion and trauma, they continue—underground and under threat. Washington Post Ukraine Takes First Step Toward Carrying Out Minerals Deal With U.S. Ukraine has taken its first concrete step toward implementing a U.S.-Ukraine minerals agreement signed in April, which grants the U.S. a stake in the extraction of critical resources. On Monday, Kyiv began drafting recommendations to open bidding for the Dobra lithium field, one of Ukraine’s largest. Among the likely bidders for a production-sharing agreement is a consortium of investors that includes TechMet, an energy investment firm partly owned by the U.S. government, and Ronald S. Lauder, a billionaire friend of President Trump. Half of Ukraine’s mineral revenue would go to a joint investment fund with the U.S., partly framed as repayment for wartime aid. The U.S. sees Ukraine’s mineral reserves—including lithium, titanium, and graphite—as key to reducing reliance on China. However, analysts caution that most projects may take a decade to mature due to war, outdated surveys, and infrastructure damage. To accelerate profits, Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko also proposed expanding the fund to support Ukraine’s undercapitalized but growing defense sector. New York Times Ukraine says repatriation of war dead over after 1,245 more bodies received from Russia. Ukraine announced the completion of a large-scale repatriation of war dead, receiving 1,245 more bodies from Russia on Monday under an agreement reached during recent talks in Istanbul. In total, over 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers’ remains have been returned since the agreement took effect last week, marking one of the largest such exchanges since the war began. Russia reported handing over 6,060 bodies, while Ukraine confirmed receiving 6,057. In return, Russia received the remains of 78 soldiers Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, June 16. Russia appears to be depleting its Soviet-era tank stock more slowly, likely due to increased use of motorcycles and ATVs to offset drone-related losses. Satellite imagery shows Russia upgrading at least five nuclear-related facilities in western Russia and Belarus, signaling continued strategic military development. Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Borova and in Zaporizhia Oblast, and Russian forces advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka. Ukrainian forces advanced near Borova and in Zaporizhia Oblast, and Russian forces advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE Russia says U.S. has canceled next round of talks on easing tensions. Russia said Monday that the United States had canceled the next round of bilateral talks aimed at easing diplomatic tensions, without providing a reason. The discussions, initiated after President Donald Trump returned to office in January, were focused on resolving issues affecting U.S. and Russian diplomatic missions and had been set to move from Istanbul to Moscow. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova expressed hope that the pause would be brief. Despite five recent phone calls between Presidents Trump and Putin, including one on June 14, progress on broader U.S.-Russia relations and the war in Ukraine remains limited. The U.S. State Department has not commented on the cancellation. Reuters Bloomberg French finance companies launch European defense investment fund. Four major French financial firms—Tikehau Capital, Societe Generale Assurances, CNP Assurances, and CARAC Group—launched the Tikehau Defense and Security fund with an initial commitment of €150 million ($173.4 million). Backed by France’s Ministry of Defence, the fund aims to support European defense and security amid rising geopolitical tensions, particularly due to the Russia-Ukraine war. It aligns with the EU’s broader rearmament effort, which includes up to €800 billion earmarked for defense by 2030. CARAC CEO Michel Andignac said the fund supports French and European strategic autonomy through investment in defense-related companies. Reuters Europeans rush drone-based radar jammers in effort to supplant US tech . European NATO countries are increasingly investing in drone-based electronic warfare (EW) systems to reduce reliance on U.S. capabilities and counter rising threats, especially from Russia. Italy’s Leonardo is leading with its StormShroud jammer drone, based on its BriteStorm system, which has drawn interest from 10–20 NATO members. These drones provide cost-effective, stand-in jamming close to hostile defenses, essential for Eastern European countries facing extended threat zones. The shift reflects lessons from Ukraine, where drones play key roles in EW and decoy missions. Competing systems from Raytheon, Hensoldt, and Thales are also advancing, while EU-backed initiatives like REACT aim to develop integrated, multi-platform EW solutions. Defense News Europe’s frontier countries ready their hospitals for war. Countries along NATO’s eastern flank—especially Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland—are rapidly preparing their healthcare systems for the possibility of war, prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and fears of future conflict. These nations are conducting mass casualty drills, hardening hospital infrastructure, stockpiling trauma supplies, and equipping medical staff with body armor. Facilities are being adapted for wartime resilience, including underground operating rooms and satellite communications. Staffing remains a challenge, with surveys showing many healthcare workers might flee during conflict. Latvia and Estonia are reinforcing system-wide crisis training, while Lithuania is hosting multiple military-medical exercises. Meanwhile, refugee and patient overflow planning is becoming a pan-European concern, with European Union solidarity likely to be tested in a major conflict. Experts warn that casualty rates could vastly exceed Ukraine’s, underscoring the urgency of coordinated medical preparedness and supply planning across the continent. As one official put it: “Crisis never shouts when it’s coming.” Politico EU Russia fears Israel’s conflict with Iran could cost it another Mideast ally. Russia initially saw Israel’s strikes on Iran as an opportunity to divert global attention from Ukraine and raise oil prices. However, as the conflict deepens, Moscow fears losing Iran—its closest Middle East ally. Regime change in Tehran could weaken Russia’s anti-Western alliance, especially after it has already lost sway in Syria. The Kremlin is alarmed by Iran’s vulnerability, though some analysts warn external pressure might rally Iranian unity. While Russia benefits in the short term from rising oil revenues, the risk of regional escalation—and even global war—looms. If Iran’s regime falls, future leadership is unlikely to favor Moscow, threatening Russia’s regional influence and strategic partnerships. Washington Post Satellite images show expansion at 5 Russian nuclear sites near Europe. Satellite imagery analyzed by Planet Labs and reported by Swedish broadcaster SVT reveals that Russia has expanded and modernized at least five nuclear-related sites near Europe. Key upgrades include a suspected nuclear storage facility in Kaliningrad, now with reinforced fencing and new buildings—possibly housing up to 100 tactical warheads. Renovations are also underway at Osipovichi in Belarus, Novaya Zemlya in the Arctic, and the Kola Peninsula near Finland and Norway, which now hosts dozens of bunkers and a submarine missile-loading pier. Sweden, a new NATO member as of March 2024, is monitoring the developments closely amid rising Russian nuclear saber-rattling. Kyiv Independent Danish military using robotic sailboats for surveillance in Baltic and North seas . Denmark has deployed four uncrewed “Voyager” sailboats, built by California-based firm Saildrone, for a three-month trial to bolster maritime surveillance amid rising tensions in the Baltic and North Seas. These 10-meter vessels, powered by wind and solar energy, carry advanced sensors and AI-driven systems capable of detecting threats like undersea cable sabotage, illegal fishing, and smuggling. The initiative follows incidents such as the Nord Stream pipeline explosion and repeated disruptions to undersea cables, which Western officials largely attribute to Russia’s “shadow fleet” and hybrid warfare tactics. Two Voyagers joined NATO patrols earlier this month, with two more launched from Koge Marina near Copenhagen. Denmark’s Defense Ministry says the trial aims to strengthen monitoring of critical infrastructure in under-observed waters. The use of these autonomous vessels is part of NATO’s broader plan to create a cost-effective, layered maritime surveillance system that reduces reliance on expensive warship patrols while enhancing constant monitoring of potential threats. Associated Press MI6 Names Its First Female Chief, Career Spy Blaise Metreweli. Blaise Metreweli has been named the first female chief of MI6, the United Kingdom’s foreign intelligence service, in its 116-year history. A career intelligence officer who previously served as the agency’s director general of technology and innovation—referred to internally as “Q”—Metreweli will succeed Richard Moore as the public-facing “C” this fall. Known for her operational experience in the Middle East and Europe, Metreweli has maintained a low public profile and is expected to bring a deeply technical, insider’s perspective to the role. Her appointment comes amid rising global threats, including cyberattacks and Russian espionage, and at a time when coordination with the U.S. intelligence community is complicated by concerns over President Trump’s ties to Vladimir Putin. Prime Minister Keir Starmer hailed the move as historic, while Metreweli emphasized MI6’s role in protecting the U.K. and its allies. Her selection echoes the U.S. decision to appoint Gina Haspel as the first female CIA director, and reflects broader efforts to diversify the British intelligence community while adapting to the demands of modern, technology-driven espionage. New York Times BBC CNN la Repubblica EU Faces Struggle to Cut Russia Oil Price Cap on Mideast Risk. The European Union is struggling to lower the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel amid U.S. resistance and a surge in global oil prices following Israeli strikes on Iran. The EU’s proposal, backed by the UK, aims to cut Russia’s oil revenues used to fund its war in Ukraine. However, several EU countries are hesitant to proceed without U.S. support, fearing limited impact without full G7 enforcement. The recent spike in crude prices—driven by fears of conflict escalation and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—has further complicated the initiative’s prospects. Final approval hinges on President Donald Trump’s decision. Bloomberg Latvia detains ex-MP in Russia probe. Latvian authorities have temporarily detained Aleksejs Rosļikovs, a leader of the ethnic Russian “For Stability!” party, on suspicion of aiding Russia and inciting national hatred. The investigation follows his June 5 expulsion from parliament for “unethical conduct” after he spoke Russian on the floor and made an obscene gesture while opposing a law requiring Russian-speaking residents to pass a Latvian language exam. Security services searched four locations linked to Rosļikovs and suspect his actions supported an “aggressor state.” Released after interrogation, Rosļikovs denies wrongdoing, calling the charges politically driven. If convicted, he could face up to 20 years in prison. Latvian authorities have temporarily detained Aleksejs Rosļikovs, a leader of the ethnic Russian “For Stability!” party, on suspicion of aiding Russia and inciting national hatred. The investigation follows his June 5 expulsion from parliament for “unethical conduct” after he spoke Russian on the floor and made an obscene gesture while opposing a law requiring Russian-speaking residents to pass a Latvian language exam. Security services searched four locations linked to Rosļikovs and suspect his actions supported an “aggressor state.” Released after interrogation, Rosļikovs denies wrongdoing, calling the charges politically driven. If convicted, he could face up to 20 years in prison. Politico EU

THE MIDDLE EAST

U.S. tells allies it won’t join war unless Iran targets Americans. The Trump administration has reportedly told Middle Eastern allies that it will not get directly involved in the Israel-Iran war unless Tehran targets Americans. While the U.S. has assisted Israel in intercepting missiles, it stressed that Israel is acting alone in its offensive. This stance was communicated to regional allies both before and after the war began, likely in hopes they would convey it to Iran to deter retaliation against U.S. forces. Despite Iranian threats, no attacks on Americans have occurred, and Tehran appears cautious not to provoke U.S. involvement. Israel has urged Washington to join the war to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program, but the Trump administration has declined, with the president also vetoing the idea of assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Although the U.S. is not participating militarily, it is moving assets like the Nimitz carrier group to the region in case of escalation. President Trump said Iran should negotiate soon, while Israel has shown no interest in a ceasefire until its military goals are met. Axios G7 expresses support for Israel, calls Iran source of instability . The G7 has issued a unified statement backing Israel’s right to self-defense and condemning Iran as “the principal source of regional instability and terror” amid escalating hostilities following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites. The declaration, issued during a summit in Canada, emphasized that Iran must never achieve nuclear weapons and called for broader de-escalation, including a Gaza ceasefire. President Trump left the summit early to address the crisis, while G7 leaders pledged to coordinate on stabilizing energy markets and safeguarding civilians. Reuters A Battered Iran Signals It Wants to De-Escalate Hostilities With Israel and Negotiate . Middle Eastern and European officials have revealed that Iran is urgently seeking to end hostilities and resume nuclear talks, sending messages through Arab intermediaries to both the U.S. and Israel. Tehran has indicated it is open to negotiations if the U.S. refrains from joining Israeli attacks. While Iran has attempted to contain the conflict, however, Israel continues to carry out its air campaign, aiming to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities and weaken its regime. Though Iran’s military has suffered heavy losses, its nuclear infrastructure remains largely intact, and Israel plans at least two more weeks of strikes. Despite international calls for a ceasefire, including from French President Macron, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu insists attacks will continue until military goals are met. Iran warns it may escalate its nuclear program if talks don’t resume, and wants assurances that Washington won’t enter the war. Arab states are pressuring the U.S. to rein in Israel, fearing regional escalation that could threaten energy infrastructure and global markets. Israeli military claims killing of Iranian ‘war chief of staff .’ The Israeli military has claimed that it killed Major General Ali Shadmani, Iran’s top military commander and head of the Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters, in an airstrike just four days after he took over the role. He had succeeded Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid, who was killed in Israel’s initial wave of strikes. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) described Shadmani as Iran’s de facto war chief and a close confidant of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. As commander of both the Revolutionary Guards and the regular armed forces, Shadmani was responsible for directing Iran’s combat operations and attack plans. His death marks another major blow to the Islamic Republic’s military leadership amid the escalating conflict with Israel. Times of Israel Reuters Trump’s Iran Choice: Last-Chance Diplomacy or a Bunker-Busting Bomb . President Trump is facing a pivotal decision in the escalating Israel-Iran conflict: whether to join Israel in striking Iran’s heavily fortified Fordo nuclear facility, which only U.S. B-2 bombers equipped with Massive Ordnance Penetrators can destroy. While Trump has promoted diplomacy and signaled interest in restarting nuclear talks, Iranian officials have warned that any U.S. involvement in direct attacks would kill the prospects for negotiation. Still, behind the scenes, Trump has encouraged Vice President JD Vance and envoy Steve Witkoff to pursue a potential diplomatic meeting with Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, who has indicated openness—if the U.S. reins in Israeli strikes. The dilemma underscores a deep divide within Trump’s political base and the national security establishment. Hawks like Senator Lindsey Graham urge Trump to fully support Israel militarily, while non-interventionists like Tucker Carlson insist the U.S. should avoid another Middle East war. Defense officials are also divided, with some warning that involvement in Iran would divert resources from strategic competition with China. For now, Trump is balancing both paths—holding out diplomacy as an option while keeping the threat of bunker-buster strikes on the table to force Iran’s hand. Ultimately, the decision will determine whether the U.S. becomes a combatant in a rapidly intensifying regional war. New York Times Iran’s Best-Protected Nuclear Site Is Deep Underground . Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility, buried deep within a mountain, is its most fortified site and central to its uranium enrichment program. Only the U.S. military possesses the 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs and B-2 stealth bombers capable of destroying it—capabilities Israel lacks. While Israel has launched strikes on Iranian infrastructure and gained temporary air superiority, experts agree that Fordo remains a highly challenging and resilient target. Without U.S. support, Israel may only be able to temporarily disable the site by targeting adjacent power facilities or using special operations forces, though such actions carry high risk. The U.S. has long resisted transferring bunker busters to Israel to avoid provoking a broader war, and any American strike would carry significant geopolitical and military consequences. As President Trump weighs his options, he faces pressure from hawks pushing for decisive action and caution from noninterventionists wary of entangling the U.S. in another Middle East conflict. New York Times How Missile Defense Works (and Why It Fails). In the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, Iran has launched waves of ballistic missiles at Israeli targets, testing the limits of even the world’s most advanced missile defense systems. While some missiles are intercepted, many break through due to the extreme difficulty of tracking and destroying warheads that travel at hypersonic speeds through space and re-enter the atmosphere within minutes. Israel’s multi-layered defense—including systems like Arrow 3, Arrow 2, THAAD, Patriot, and Iron Dome—works in tandem with U.S. assets, but can still be overwhelmed by large volleys, decoys, and debris confusion. The closer a missile gets to impact, the harder it is to stop, and even successful interceptions can cause deadly fallout. With no clear off-ramp and both sides entrenched, the conflict risks escalating into a battle of endurance as each side tests how long the other can sustain missile fire. New York Times How Tough Is Iran? A String of Military Losses Raises Questions. Iran, long portrayed as a major global threat due to its nuclear ambitions and regional influence, has seen its power and deterrence unravel following a series of devastating blows from Israel. Since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas in late 2023, Iran has lost key allies, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime, while enduring major Israeli strikes on its air defenses, leadership, and nuclear infrastructure. Israel now has air superiority over the country, having even launched attacks from within Iranian territory and killed senior military figures and nuclear scientists. Iran’s strategy of relying on regional proxies and missile threats has proven ineffective, as those proxies have been weakened and its missile arsenal is being depleted faster than it can be replenished. With limited options, hesitancy to drag in the U.S., and improved ties with Gulf states constraining its actions, Iran faces a strategic dead end. Experts warn that this isolation and vulnerability may drive Tehran to pursue a nuclear weapon more openly than before. New York Times Chinese embassy in Israel urges citizens to leave . The Chinese embassy in Israel has advised its citizens to leave the country immediately, citing the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran and the worsening security situation. In a notice posted Tuesday on WeChat, the embassy warned of rising civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure. With Israeli airspace still closed, Chinese nationals were urged to exit via land border crossings, particularly the route into Jordan. Reuters Lebanese leaders indirectly urge Hezbollah to stay out of the Israel-Iran conflict . Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have urged the country to remain neutral in the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, warning that involvement would worsen Lebanon’s already dire economic and political crisis. Their remarks, delivered during a Cabinet meeting on Monday, served as a clear message to Hezbollah—a powerful Iran-backed militant group in Lebanon—not to reignite hostilities. Hezbollah previously engaged in heavy fighting with Israel following Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack, resulting in over 4,000 Lebanese deaths and $11 billion in damages before a U.S.-brokered ceasefire took effect. With much of Hezbollah’s leadership lost in recent conflict, Lebanon’s leaders are seeking to avoid further devastation. Associated Press Israeli tank fire kills 51 people in Gaza crowd trying to get food . Israeli tank fire killed at least 51 Palestinians and wounded over 200 in Khan Younis, Gaza, as a crowd gathered near stalled aid trucks, seeking food. Witnesses said Israeli forces allowed the crowd to advance before firing shells. The Israeli military acknowledged firing in the area and is reviewing the incident. Gaza authorities report hundreds killed at similar aid sites in recent weeks. The deadly strike deepens the humanitarian crisis amid Israel’s ongoing war on Hamas, which has killed nearly 55,000 Palestinians since October 2023. World Health Organization officials said that the organization had received reports of a mass casualty incident on Tuesday that affected people waiting for food supplies, saying that initial reports point to at least 20 fatalities. Reuters UN rights chief calls on governments to ‘wake up’ to ‘horrifying’ suffering of Palestinians in Gaza . United Nations human rights chief Volker Türk has condemned Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, calling it a source of “horrifying, unconscionable suffering” for Palestinians and urging global leaders to press both Israel and Hamas to end the conflict. Speaking at the opening of a Human Rights Council session on Monday, Türk delivered some of his strongest criticism yet, emphasizing the vast civilian toll—over 55,300 deaths, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. He also criticized Israel’s warfare methods and raised broader concerns about conflicts in Sudan, Ukraine, and escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Israel’s mission in Geneva rejected Türk’s comments, accusing him of spreading misinformation and failing to denounce Hamas. Meanwhile, Doctors Without Borders described Gaza as a “hell on earth” and appealed to the EU for action. . United Nations human rights chief Volker Türk has condemned Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, calling it a source of “horrifying, unconscionable suffering” for Palestinians and urging global leaders to press both Israel and Hamas to end the conflict. Speaking at the opening of a Human Rights Council session on Monday, Türk delivered some of his strongest criticism yet, emphasizing the vast civilian toll—over 55,300 deaths, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. He also criticized Israel’s warfare methods and raised broader concerns about conflicts in Sudan, Ukraine, and escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Israel’s mission in Geneva rejected Türk’s comments, accusing him of spreading misinformation and failing to denounce Hamas. Meanwhile, Doctors Without Borders described Gaza as a “hell on earth” and appealed to the EU for action. Associated Press The Guardian

ASIA & OCEANIA What the capsizing and relaunching of a warship tells us about North Korea’s regime . The global attention on North Korea’s recent warship mishap stems less from the technical failure and more from Kim Jong Un’s unusually public and forceful response. When the 5,000-ton destroyer capsized during its launch in May, Kim called it a “criminal act” caused by “absolute carelessness and irresponsibility,” and swiftly ordered repairs and arrests. Analysts say this reveals both North Korea’s determination to build a nuclear-armed navy and Kim’s evolving propaganda strategy. Rather than conceal failure, Kim chose to publicize it, punish those responsible, and then turn the rapid repair into a symbol of state competence and loyalty. The ship, one of two new destroyers, marks a major step in Pyongyang’s effort to close the naval power gap with adversaries like the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. Experts warn the regime’s ambitions—once regarded with global skepticism—are advancing quickly. Kim’s ultimate goal appears to be transforming North Korea’s outdated navy into a global force capable of launching nuclear strikes, which poses growing security risks. BBC US pushes Vietnam to decouple from Chinese tech, sources say . The U.S. is pressuring Vietnam to reduce its reliance on Chinese technology in electronics assembled for export to America, aiming to restructure global supply chains and accelerate decoupling from China. Companies like Apple, Samsung, Meta, and Google rely on Vietnamese factories that often use Chinese components. The Trump administration has threatened 46% tariffs on Vietnam-made goods if changes aren’t made by July 8. Vietnam has begun meeting with local firms to increase domestic tech production, but businesses warn they need time and resources to adjust. The U.S. also wants Hanoi to address deceptive “Made in Vietnam” labeling on Chinese goods. Despite some progress in talks, major issues remain unresolved. While Vietnam is eager to grow its industrial base, its tech supply chain still lags China’s by 15–20 years. Rapid changes risk straining ties with Beijing, a key investor and trading partner. A possible meeting between President Trump and Vietnam’s top leader is expected in late June. Reuters China’s state security agency warns of phishing emails sent by foreign spies . China’s top spy agency on Tuesday accused foreign intelligence services of sending phishing emails with Trojan malware to Chinese military research institutes, universities, and government bodies. In one case, a shipbuilding expert at a major university received a fake job application containing a password-protected resume embedded with malicious software. The malware, once opened, could have allowed hackers to take control of the recipient’s computer and steal data. However, no sensitive information was stored on the device. The Ministry of State Security warned that phishing remains a key tactic for foreign espionage and urged strict cybersecurity practices for anyone handling confidential information. South China Morning Post Paris Air Show: China gives glimpse of 5th-gen J-35A fighter model in bid for foreign sales . China has showcased a scale model of its new fifth-generation fighter jet, the J-35A, for the first time overseas at the Paris Air Show, aiming to boost international sales of its advanced military aircraft. Developed by Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, the J-35A is a land-based variant of the J-35, originally designed for aircraft carriers, and first flew in September 2023. While Europe has ruled out buying Chinese military jets, demand has grown in developing nations, with Pakistan reportedly offered 40 J-35s. China also promoted the J-10CE, a 4.5-generation fighter used by Pakistan since 2022, and the widely exported JF-17. These aircraft were presented alongside Western jets like the F-35A and Rafale. China’s rising presence in global arms markets—especially in the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa—reflects its strategic push to compete with Western defense manufacturers, though geopolitical tensions continue to shape buyer decisions and deployment claims remain contested. South China Morning Post Swedish weapons think tank reports rapid expansion of Chinese nuclear arsenal . The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports that China’s nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other country. According to SIPRI, China’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force is on pace to equal that of Russia or the U.S. by the turn of the decade. The Swedish weapons research think tank noted that China has added 100 more warheads to its nuclear stockpile each year since 2023 for a total of at least 600. In addition, China has completed construction of about 350 new ICBM silos located in the country’s northern desert areas or in three mountainous areas to the east. The SIPRI report said China deployed the DF-41 missile equipped with MIRV technology within the past five years to complement previous deployments of DF-5 ICBMs. The report went on to project that if each of the new silos was filled with a missile equipped with three MIRVs, the number of warheads could increase to more than 1200. SIPRI said China is in “the middle of a significant modernization and expansion of its nuclear arsenal” as it refits its Type 094 ballistic missile submarines with longer-range missiles while also developing a new Type 096 SSBN and strategic bomber aircraft. South China Morning Post China’s Xi meets Kazakh leader Tokayev, widen cooperation, Xinhua says . China and Kazakhstan signed multiple cooperation agreements on trade, investment, technology, tourism, and customs during a meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana. According to China’s state-run Xinhua news agency, Xi emphasized the importance of multilateralism and protecting the shared interests of developing nations. He also urged progress on cross-border railway and port infrastructure projects, while calling for deeper collaboration in law enforcement and defense to combat terrorism, separatism, and extremism. Reuters

Australia’s Albanese confident on AUKUS after British leader says it will proceed. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese welcomed British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s affirmation at the G7 summit that the AUKUS nuclear submarine pact with the U.S. and Australia will move forward, despite a Pentagon review. Starmer, speaking alongside U.S. President Donald Trump, said both nations remain committed to the agreement, which aims to bolster Canberra’s naval capabilities in response to China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. Albanese, who was set to meet Trump to advocate for AUKUS, did not get the opportunity after Trump left the summit early. Nonetheless, Albanese expressed confidence in the continued support of all three AUKUS partners. The deal, unveiled in 2023, would provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines starting in the early 2030s. A Pentagon official recently confirmed the agreement is being reviewed to ensure it aligns with Trump’s “America First” policy. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese welcomed British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s affirmation at the G7 summit that the AUKUS nuclear submarine pact with the U.S. and Australia will move forward, despite a Pentagon review. Starmer, speaking alongside U.S. President Donald Trump, said both nations remain committed to the agreement, which aims to bolster Canberra’s naval capabilities in response to China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. Albanese, who was set to meet Trump to advocate for AUKUS, did not get the opportunity after Trump left the summit early. Nonetheless, Albanese expressed confidence in the continued support of all three AUKUS partners. The deal, unveiled in 2023, would provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines starting in the early 2030s. A Pentagon official recently confirmed the agreement is being reviewed to ensure it aligns with Trump’s “America First” policy. Reuters

AFRICA Sudan in danger of self-destructing as conflict and famine reign . Sudan’s devastating civil war has reached a stalemate, with neither the army nor the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) able to secure a decisive victory. The Sudanese people are bearing the brunt, suffering famine, mass displacement, and a deepening humanitarian crisis. The army, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, managed to recapture parts of Khartoum with new weapons from regional allies, but stalled soon after. The RSF, under Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), retaliated with advanced drone strikes and formed alliances to expand its operations. In Darfur, a brutal siege by the RSF is triggering fears of ethnic cleansing. Despite diplomatic efforts, including an April conference in London, peace remains elusive due to regional divisions, and the UN’s approach has proven unrealistic. Meanwhile, civic groups struggle to survive amid repression and defunding. With over half the population displaced and nearly a million at risk of famine, Sudan faces the world’s largest humanitarian disaster—largely neglected by the international community. BBC Amid democratic backsliding, Togo suspends French broadcasters RFI and France 24. Togo has suspended broadcasts by French state-owned media outlets Radio France Internationale (RFI) and France 24 for three months, accusing them of biased and inaccurate reporting that allegedly threatens national stability. The country’s media regulator cited repeated failures in impartiality, fact-checking, and journalistic rigor. While no specific examples were given, the suspension comes amid rising political tensions over constitutional changes that critics say could allow President Faure Gnassingbé to stay in power indefinitely. The move has sparked concerns over press freedom, with protests planned for next week despite a national ban on demonstrations. Regional observers worry the situation may further destabilize a region already grappling with democratic backsliding. Associated Press RFI Canadian gold miner placed under temporary provisional administration in Mali . A Malian judge has placed Barrick Gold’s Loulo-Gounkoto mine under six months of provisional administration amid a deepening dispute between the Canadian mining giant and the country’s military-led government over alleged unpaid taxes. The ruling appoints a former health minister as administrator, temporarily stripping Barrick of operational control, though the company retains legal ownership. The conflict escalated after Mali issued an arrest warrant for Barrick CEO Mark Bristow last year, and detained employees while suspending gold exports. Barrick, Africa’s largest gold producer, has offered to pay $370 million and has filed for arbitration with the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes. Mali, facing economic hardship and security challenges, has recently increased pressure on foreign miners to boost state revenue. A similar tax dispute last year led to the detention of Australian mining executives. . A Malian judge has placed Barrick Gold’s Loulo-Gounkoto mine under six months of provisional administration amid a deepening dispute between the Canadian mining giant and the country’s military-led government over alleged unpaid taxes. The ruling appoints a former health minister as administrator, temporarily stripping Barrick of operational control, though the company retains legal ownership. The conflict escalated after Mali issued an arrest warrant for Barrick CEO Mark Bristow last year, and detained employees while suspending gold exports. Barrick, Africa’s largest gold producer, has offered to pay $370 million and has filed for arbitration with the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes. Mali, facing economic hardship and security challenges, has recently increased pressure on foreign miners to boost state revenue. A similar tax dispute last year led to the detention of Australian mining executives. Associated Press Bloomberg Reuters Nasdaq

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS OpenAI secures $200 million US defense contract . The Pentagon announced on Monday that OpenAI has secured a $200 million contract from the U.S. Defense Department to develop advanced artificial intelligence tools for national security, both in military operations and administrative functions. According to the Pentagon, the project will involve creating prototype “frontier AI capabilities” and is expected to be completed by July 2026, primarily in the Washington area. This marks a significant government collaboration for OpenAI, which recently reported a $10 billion annualized revenue run rate amid growing global AI adoption. Reuters Bloomberg France 24 Elon Musk’s X sees partial recovery after outage hits US users, Downdetector shows . Social media platform X, formerly Twitter, began recovering on Saturday after an outage affected over 10,000 users in the U.S., according to Downdetector. By 7:42 p.m. ET, disruption reports had dropped to around 1,041. While Downdetector compiles data from various sources, the actual number of users impacted may differ. The outage comes amid ongoing technical issues at X, which owner Elon Musk recently acknowledged, calling for major operational improvements. Musk, who has pledged to refocus on X, xAI, Tesla, and SpaceX, attributed a similar March outage to a cyberattack. X has not yet commented on the latest incident. Reuters WestJet probes cybersecurity incident affecting app and internal systems . Last week, Canada’s WestJet Airlines launched a probe into a cybersecurity incident that has disrupted access to its mobile app and some internal systems, though flight operations remain unaffected. The airline was working with law enforcement and Transport Canada as of Sunday, to assess the breach and contain its impact. WestJet, Ottawa’s second largest airline, stated that it is prioritizing the protection of sensitive data belonging to both customers and employees but noted it is too early to determine the full scope or cause of the incident. The breach comes amid a rise in cyber threats targeting Canada’s critical infrastructure, following similar incidents earlier this year involving energy providers like Emera and Nova Scotia Power. Wall Street Journal Reuters Infosecurity Magazine Amazon will invest $13 billion in Australia’s data center infrastructure over five years . Amazon has announced a A$20 billion (US$12.97 billion) investment to expand, operate, and maintain its data center infrastructure in Australia from 2025 to 2029, aiming to strengthen the country’s artificial intelligence capabilities. This marks the company’s largest tech investment in Australia and will support new server capacity and generative AI workloads. Amazon is also investing in three solar farms in Victoria and Queensland, committing to purchase over 170 megawatts of capacity. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese praised the move as a major boost to the economy and a vote of confidence in Australia’s future. This investment aligns with a global trend, as major tech firms like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google ramp up data center expansion to meet rising AI and cloud computing demands. Amazon recently unveiled similar plans in the U.S. and Taiwan, with multibillion-dollar investments in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and other regions. Reuters Forbes Wall Street Journal Oil Prices Drop, but Iran-Israel Conflict Raises Many Risks . The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has sparked uncertainty in global energy markets, but oil prices have remained relatively stable so far. Brent crude initially jumped 7% after Israeli strikes but has since fallen to around $74 per barrel, below the 2024 average of $80. Analysts suggest this reflects market skepticism that the conflict will significantly disrupt supply, even as tensions rise in a region responsible for 25 million barrels of oil per day. Still, the situation remains volatile. If Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz—a vital route for a third of global seaborne oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas—prices could soar to $124 per barrel, Deutsche Bank estimates. However, such a move would provoke U.S. military action and hurt Iran’s own exports. More likely scenarios include Iran harassing tankers or encouraging attacks on Iraq’s oil infrastructure. If Israel targets Iran’s energy facilities, the resulting supply shock could push oil to $90 per barrel, though analysts expect prices to eventually normalize as other producers step in. New York Times Why do countries want rare earth elements? Rare earth elements (REEs) are crucial for modern technology, found in devices like smartphones and electric vehicles, primarily due to their role in creating permanent magnets. These magnets are essential for various applications, including renewable energy technologies and defense systems. Despite their name, REEs are relatively common but are primarily sourced from specific regions, with China dominating the market, providing about 70% of the world’s supply. This dependence raises concerns among Western nations about future access, prompting the EU and the US to develop domestic sources and supply chains. Initiatives like the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act aim to increase regional production, while the US seeks to establish a “mine-to-magnet” supply chain by 2027. Additionally, regions like Ukraine and Greenland are being explored for their untapped potential to ensure a more secure supply of these vital materials. Deutsche Welle Companies Warned On Iranian Cyberattacks . As the Israel-Iran conflict intensifies, cybersecurity experts are warning of a possible surge in Iranian cyberattacks that could reach targets beyond the battlefield, including in the U.S. Iran has long posed a cyber threat, targeting critical infrastructure like the Aliquippa, Pennsylvania water utility in 2023. Although no major attacks have been reported during the current conflict, experts say the risk is rising. Iran, militarily outmatched by Israel, may turn to cyber warfare to inflict damage with broader geographic reach. So far, cyber activity has mainly involved disinformation rather than destructive attacks, but U.S. industry watchdogs have urged sectors like tech and agriculture to brace for possible disruptions. Reports from Google’s Threat Intelligence Group highlight Iran’s use of ransomware, malware, and phishing, especially against Israel. Analysts caution that while Iran often exaggerates its cyber successes for psychological effect, the threat to critical infrastructure—especially in allied nations—remains serious and evolving. Wall Street Journal Cyberattacks against Israel surge 700 percent since the start of the conflict with Iran . Cyberattacks against Israel surged 700 percent since Friday compared with the period before June 12, according to the Radware cybersecurity firm. Researchers have found that malicious network activity has been focused on Israeli infrastructure and likely “stems from cyber retaliation operations by Iranian state actors and pro-Iranian hacker groups.” The cyber campaign consists of DDoS attacks, infiltration attempts targeting critical infrastructure, data theft, and malware distribution operations. Radware also detected increased activity by “threat actors aligned with Iran on public and private Telegram channels.” Researchers anticipate intensified Iran-sponsored cyberattacks against Israeli government websites, financial institutions, and telecommunications, alongside psychological influence campaigns. Jerusalem Post Starlink satellite internet links activated in Iran, bypassing government restrictions . Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite communications network has been activated in Iran, as other forms of access to the internet have been shut down. Musk confirmed over the weekend that “the beams are on” in Iran even as Tehran imposed internet restrictions on domestic users. A post on X by a political analyst highlighted that the Starlink activation enables the bypassing of government censorship directed by the Iranian communications ministry. Cybernews Jerusalem Post Twin Proba-3 spacecraft create artificial solar eclipse . The Proba-3 mission, launched in December 2024 as a collaboration between the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA, successfully created an artificial solar eclipse to study the solar corona, the sun’s outer atmosphere. By maneuvering two spacecraft, Occulter and Coronagraph, 150 meters apart, Proba-3 blocked sunlight with millimeter precision, allowing for unprecedented observations of the corona’s structure, which has perplexed scientists due to its higher temperatures compared to the sun’s surface. The mission aims to gather data on solar phenomena, such as coronal mass ejections, which can impact Earth’s technology. This innovative approach follows the recent Solar Orbiter mission, which provided the first images of the sun’s poles, enhancing our understanding of solar activity and its effects on space weather. Proba-3’s autonomous operation and precision flying mark significant advancements in space exploration technology. Deutsche Welle Review of EU AI Act could remove enforcement provisions following industry lobbying . A shifting political climate and industry lobbying are leading to changes in the European Union’s landmark AI Act, which may result in simplified processes and reduced requirements for businesses. Although the Act was adopted in August of last year, it is only being implemented in stages, with some AI practices addressed immediately and other enforcement provisions entering into effect in 2026 or 2027. The latter could be put on hold, according to Dutch Green legislator Kim van Sparrentak, who helped negotiate the Act. Henna Virkkunen, the European Commission’s tech sovereignty chief, surprised some earlier in June when she referred to a possible pause in rolling out the law. An ongoing Commission review of how to simplify digital rules across the board, which will be issued in December, has provided another opportunity for “targeted” changes to the AI Act. E.U. legislators will question Virkkunen on Tuesday during a meeting of the parliamentary group monitoring the implementation of the AI Act. An Irish liberal representative, Michael McNamara, who will co-chair the meeting, warned that “just to throw everything out, there would be a risk of throwing out the baby with the bathwater.” Politico Europe responds to Nvidia CEO’s call to create ‘sovereign AI’ capabilities . European government and tech leaders reportedly are receptive to the message from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on the urgency of creating “sovereign AI” capabilities on the continent. In meetings across Europe last week, Huang declared that Nvidia plans to invest billions in multiple countries, “but Europe needs to move into AI quickly.” “Sovereign AI” emphasizes that the language, knowledge, history, and culture of each region are different, and nations must develop their own AI footprint. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced last week that Britain will create a $1.35 billion fund to build computing power to allow the country “to be an AI maker and not an AI taker.” At a global tech conference in Paris last week, French President Emmanuel Macron called building AI infrastructure “our fight for sovereignty.” Arthur Mensch, the CEO of France’s Mistral AI startup, told a VivaTech panel discussion, “There’s no reason why Europe shouldn’t have tech champions. This is a gigantic dream.” Mistral has partnered with Nvidia on the construction of a data center that will provide European firms with a domestic alternative to U.S. AI hyperscalers. Pascal Brier, chief innovation officer at Capgemini, a partner of both Nvidia and Mistral, acknowledged that European initiatives are unlikely to meet the scale of U.S. competitors. “Hyperscalers are spending $10 billion to $15 billion per quarter in their infrastructure. Who in Europe can afford that exactly?” he asked. “It doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do anything, but we have to be cognizant about the fact that there will always be a gap.” Reuters Leading Chinese tech firms launch talent recruitment drives in tight AI skills market . Baidu, one of China’s leading internet companies, has intensified its talent recruitment efforts with a 60 percent increase in job openings to support its AI R&D initiatives. Baidu’s job offerings include opportunities for specialists in large language model (LLM) algorithms, foundational LLM architecture, machine learning, speech technologies, and AI agents. Meanwhile, Baidu’s rivals such as ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent Holdings have launched recruitment drives of their own, seeking candidates in various AI specialties for full-time positions or internships. These drives occur even as China faces a tight labor market for AI skills. The online headhunting platform, Liepin, estimates in its latest Talent Shortage Index (TSI) that China had an AI skills shortfall of 3.24 as of January, with any figure above one indicating a shortage. Other skills trends were provided by the Zhaopin job search platform, which reported that job postings in China for algorithm engineers jumped 44 percent year on year in the first quarter, while machine-learning specialist postings were up 18 percent. South China Morning Post U.S. presses Vietnam to reduce Chinese components used in export tech products . In the ongoing tariff talks between the U.S. and Vietnam, Washington is urging Hanoi to reduce the use of Chinese technology in devices destined for export to the U.S. Vietnam hosts manufacturing operations that utilize Chinese components in products from Apple, Samsung, Meta, and Google. In response, Vietnam has reportedly held meetings with domestic businesses to increase the use of Vietnamese parts. The goal of this effort is to increase Vietnam’s industrial output while decoupling the country from Chinese-made technology. In 2024, China exported $44 billion of electronics components and computers to Vietnam. The U.S. is also pushing Vietnam to reduce the Chinese practice of labeling products “made in Vietnam” — a ploy to lower duties on China’s exports bound for the U.S. The Vietnamese Ministry of Trade has noted progress in talks with the U.S., although it added that some critical issues remain unresolved. Reuters Energy, tech, finance leaders gather in Washington to discuss AI-related power needs . Leading executives from major oil, tech and power firms, along with financial heavyweights, are meeting in Washington, D.C. to discuss meeting AI’s energy needs. The ENACT event is organized by two UAE companies, XRG and MGX, in collaboration with the Atlantic Council think tank. The meeting’s agenda focuses on both immediate energy needs to 2030 and longer-term decision-making and opportunities in the sector. Tech executives like OpenAI’s global affairs head, Chris Lehane, and Crusoe’s co-founder and CEO, Chase Lochmiller, are expected to participate, along with Constellation Energy’s CEO, Joseph Dominguez, and Emirates Nuclear Energy’s CEO, Mohamed Al Hammadi, among others. The goal of ENACT is to generate practical takeaways, and the session is expected to concentrate on the U.S., which XRG has identified as a priority market. A report is expected to follow soon after the meeting’s conclusion. ADNOC CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who is also the UAE minister of industry and advanced tech, will host this session of ENACT following an initial meeting in Abu Dhabi in 2024. Al Jaber described ENACT as an effort to “connect the dots between sectors to help drive coordinated solutions” on AI energy needs. Axios Global law enforcement operation shuts down dark web drug marketplace platform . Archetyp Market, a prominent drug marketplace on the dark web, has been shut down by international law enforcement agencies following a coordinated operation involving raids across Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, Spain, and Sweden. The alleged administrator of Archetyp, a 30-year-old German national, was arrested at his home in Barcelona. Operating under the pseudonym ASNT, the man ran the platform as part of an organized criminal group trafficking large quantities of narcotics, according to authorities. Assets totaling about $9 million, including luxury vehicles and cryptocurrency, were seized. The seizure of the platform followed years of forensic work to trace financial flows, analyze digital evidence, and map its architecture. The marketplace homepage now bears a seizure notice along with a warning video of the police operation. Jean-Philippe Lecouffe, Europol’s deputy executive director of operations, said the joint law enforcement operation severed “a major supply line for some of the world’s most dangerous substances.” BleepingComputer CyberScoop . Archetyp Market, a prominent drug marketplace on the dark web, has been shut down by international law enforcement agencies following a coordinated operation involving raids across Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, Spain, and Sweden. The alleged administrator of Archetyp, a 30-year-old German national, was arrested at his home in Barcelona. Operating under the pseudonym ASNT, the man ran the platform as part of an organized criminal group trafficking large quantities of narcotics, according to authorities. Assets totaling about $9 million, including luxury vehicles and cryptocurrency, were seized. The seizure of the platform followed years of forensic work to trace financial flows, analyze digital evidence, and map its architecture. The marketplace homepage now bears a seizure notice along with a warning video of the police operation. Jean-Philippe Lecouffe, Europol’s deputy executive director of operations, said the joint law enforcement operation severed “a major supply line for some of the world’s most dangerous substances.” The Record

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Israel is set to be one of the first countries targeted by a reform of the mechanism to suspend short-stay visa-free travel into the EU and Schengen countries agreed on Tuesday by the European Parliament and the Council according to European Parliament sources.

The new rules amend the grounds for suspending visa free schemes to include violations of human rights, which could lead to the imposition of mandatory visas for Israeli citizens, among others, sources from the Parliament familiar with the dossier told Euronews.

Currently nationals from 61 countries – including Australia, Brazil, Israel, Japan, UK, Ukraine and the Western Balkan states – may travel to the Schengen area for short stays of up to 90 days in any 180-day period.

The EU can suspend the visa-free regime under specific conditions. So far this has happened only once — with the Republic of Vanuatu — due to its citizenship-by-investment scheme, which granted wealthy Russians Vanuatan passports allowing free travel into the EU.

Under the new agreement between EU lawmakers and member states, the suspension mechanism will now be easier to trigger however, as the thresholds have been lowered and new criteria added.

For example, violations of the United Nations Charter, severe breaches of international human rights or humanitarian law, and non-compliance with international court decisions will now be valid grounds for suspending a country’s visa-free status.

“This tool helps us deliver the values that have built our community and allows us to enforce human rights and respect for international law,” Slovenian MEP Matjaž Nemec, the rapporteur for the bill in Parliament, told Euronews. “No specific country is being targeted,” he added.

However, Israel’s status is among countries most at risk of having its status challenged under the new procedure, Parliament sources told Euronews, due to accusations of war crimes and crimes against humanity in its war on Gaza — allegations that have been raised by the UN. Serbia is another likely to be targeted, due to human rights concerns highlighted by the UN, the sources said.

Under the procedure, the European Commission has to issue an implementing act to suspend the visa-free scheme for a particular country for one year. This decision only requires approval by the member states, and can be blocked by a qualified majority. To extend the suspension, the Commission must issue a delegated act, which can instead be blocked by either the Council or the Parliament.

Countries in the Schengen area — which includes all EU states except Cyprus, Ireland, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland — may also push the Commission to start the procedure, by notifying that they believe the conditions for triggering the mechanism are met. The Parliament may also propose a non-binding resolution recommending suspension of a country’s visa-free status.

“It is more likely that an EU member state would raise the issue of Israel, rather than the Parliament,” a source familiar with the matter told Euronews, adding that several political groups in the Parliament pushed for the inclusion of human rights violations with Israel in mind.

A tool to deter migration

Among other legislative changes included in the bill are new provisions related to migration. Currently, a substantial increase in the number of people of a specific nationality staying irregularly in the Schengen area or a rise in asylum seekers from a country with a low recognition rate can justify suspending the visa-free regime.

Under the reform, the threshold for assessing an increase in irregular stays will be lowered from 50% to 30% of the previous period’s number. Meanwhile, the threshold for a “low recognition rate” of asylum applications will be raised from the current 4% to 20%. This would broaden the spectrum of the countries involved and would ease triggering the mechanism.

Indeed the changes aim to send a message to countries benefiting from visa-free access, encouraging them to reduce migration to the EU. “The Polish presidency, which leads the Council, pushed hard for this reform because of strong ambitions among member states. That’s why we were able to reach an agreement today,” said Matjaž Nemec.

The deal reached on Tuesday still needs to be formally adopted by both the Parliament and the Council before becoming EU law.