
Israel’s endgame may be regime change in Iran – but it’s a gamble
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Ulster Unionist MLA to step down after less than a year in job
Crawford replaced Robin Swann as the party’s MLA for the area last July. His selection caused an internal row within the party, prompting Doug Beattie to resign as leader.
He confirmed the news on Facebook on Friday evening, citing it as “the right decision for me and my family”.
Crawford replaced Robin Swann as the party’s MLA for the area last July after Swann became the MP for South Antrim in the general election.
His selection caused an internal row within the party, prompting Doug Beattie to resign as leader after he had supported another candidate for the job.
Starmer urges Netanyahu to use diplomacy in Iran
Starmer urges Netanyahu to use diplomacy in Iran as fresh wave of Israeli strikes begin. Cobra emergency meeting held earlier to discuss UK response to the situation. Fears of a full-scale conflict stoked by warnings of “severe punishment” from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Foreign Secretary David Lammy cancels trip to Washington DC to meet counterpart Marco Rubio. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch declined to condemn Israel’s actions, stressing “Iran is an enemy of the UK” that had attempted terrorist acts “on UK soil” Sir Keir Starmer has urged de-escalation following Israeli strikes targeting nuclear and military sites in Iran. He spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday afternoon and shared the UK’s “grave concerns” about Iran’s nuclear programme, No 10 said. The attack appeared to be the most significant Iran has faced since its war with Iraq in the 1980s.
A Cobra emergency meeting was held earlier to discuss the UK response to the situation.
Fears of a full-scale conflict have been stoked by warnings of “severe punishment” from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and reports of drone launches in response.
He spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday afternoon and shared the UK’s “grave concerns” about Iran’s nuclear programme, No 10 said, as a fresh wave of Israeli strikes targeting Tehran began.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has urged de-escalation following Israeli strikes targeting nuclear and military sites in Iran.
In a social media post, Sir Keir said he had been “engaging partners to de-escalate,” calling for “restraint, calm and a return to diplomacy”.
On his call to Netanyahu, a No 10 spokesman said: “The Prime Minister was clear that Israel has a right to self-defence and set out the UK’s grave concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme.
“He reiterated the need for de-escalation and a diplomatic resolution, in the interests of stability in the region.”
Sir Keir also spoke to French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Friday morning and made a joint call for diplomacy.
A Downing Street spokesman said: “The leaders discussed the long-held grave concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme, and called on all sides to refrain from further escalation that could further destabilize the region.”
Asked if the UK is involved in nuclear talks with US and Iran, he said: “On Iran’s nuclear programme, it is more advanced than ever, and it is a clear threat to international peace and security.
“We’ve urged Iran to continue engaging with President Trump’s offer of a negotiated solution and we continue to liaise closely with our partners on this.
“We remain committed to finding a diplomatic solution but are prepared to take every diplomatic step to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, including through snapback, if necessary.”
The UN snapback mechanism would lead to the re-imposition of international sanctions against Iran developing nuclear weapons, which had been lifted in 2015.
Foreign Secretary David Lammy had cancelled a planned trip to Washington DC to meet his counterpart Marco Rubio, and instead spoke to his equivalent in Iran, in what he said was a “moment of grave peril in the Middle East”.
In a meeting with journalists, Lammy was asked several times about whether the UK had been informed before Israel made its strikes against Iran overnight. He said the UK was “not involved” and emphasised that Israel took “unilateral action”.
UK officials said the UK did not play any part in the action overnight but is continuing to monitor the situation.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch declined to condemn Israel’s actions, stressing “Iran is an enemy of the UK” that had attempted terrorist acts “on UK soil”.
She added: “If Israel is stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons they should not be condemned for that.”
Badenoch added the UK should be increasing defence spending as well as energy security.
Rubio also said that Israel acted unilaterally, adding in a post on X that the US is “not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region”.
The attack appeared to be the most significant Iran has faced since its war with Iraq in the 1980s.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel had “struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme” and “the heart of Iran’s nuclear weaponisation programme”.
Netanyahu added the “operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat”.
Iranian state television reported that the leader of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard Hossein Salami was killed as well as chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, General Mohammad Bagheri.
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said international leadership was needed from the UK government.
“People across the UK and the world will be fearing the break-out of widespread regional conflict in the Middle East, following Israel’s strikes overnight,” he said.
“The UK must work with allies to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions through diplomacy, not war.”
Global oil prices soar after Israel attacks Iran
Global oil prices jumped after Israel said it had struck Iran in a dramatic escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The price of the benchmark Brent crude rose more than 10%, reaching its highest level since January, before losing some gains. But Brent crude still ended the day more than 7% higher than Thursday’s closing price, trading at $74.23 a barrel. Despite Friday’s moves, oil prices are still 10% lower than where they were at the same point last year. They are also well below the peaks seen in early 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when the price of crude soared well above $100 a Barrel.
The cost of crude oil affects everything from how much it costs to fill up your car to the price of food at the supermarket.
Traders were concerned that a conflict between Iran and Israel could disrupt supplies coming from the energy-rich region.
The price of the benchmark Brent crude rose more than 10%, reaching its highest level since January, before losing some gains.
Global oil prices jumped after Israel said it had struck Iran in a dramatic escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
After the initial jump, oil prices eased a little. But Brent crude still ended the day more than 7% higher than Thursday’s closing price, trading at $74.23 a barrel.
Despite Friday’s moves, oil prices are still more than 10% lower than where they were at the same point last year. They are also well below the peaks seen in early 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when the price of crude soared well above $100 a barrel.
Share prices fell across Asia and Europe on Friday. Japan’s Nikkei share index ended the day down 0.9%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 index closed 0.39% lower.
Stock markets in the US also closed down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.79% while the S&P 500 was down 0.69%.
So-called “safe haven” assets such as gold and the Swiss franc made gains. Some investors see these assets as more reliable investments in times of uncertainty.
The gold price hit its highest level for nearly two months, rising 1.2% to $3,423.30 an ounce.
Following Israel’s attack, Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said Iran had launched around 100 drones towards the country.
Analysts have told the BBC that energy traders will now be watching how much the conflict worsens in the coming days.
“It’s an explosive situation, albeit one that could be defused quickly as we saw in April and October last year, when Israel and Iran struck each other directly,” Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights told the BBC.
“It could also spiral out into a bigger war that disrupts Mideast oil supply,” she added.
Analysts at Capital Economics said that if Iran’s oil production and export facilities were targeted, the price of Brent crude could jump to around $80-$100 a barrel.
However, they added that such a spike in prices would encourage other oil producers to increase output, ultimately limiting the price rise and the knock-on effect on inflation.
A spokesman for UK motoring body the RAC, Rod Dennis, said it was “too soon” to say what impact the latest rise in oil would have on petrol prices.
“There are two key factors at play: whether higher wholesale fuel prices are sustained over the coming days and, crucially, the sort of margin retailers decide to take,” he said.
Turning the Brink’s-Mat heist into dramatic gold
Brink’s-Mat heist was one of Britain’s biggest robberies in 1983. £26 million worth of gold, diamonds and cash was stolen. Second series of The Gold, airing now on BBC One and iPlayer. Writer Neil Forsyth talks about the importance of dramatic licence.
That was the challenge writer Neil Forsyth faced when adapting the story of the Brink’s-Mat heist – one of Britain’s biggest robberies when £26 million worth of gold, diamonds and cash was stolen.
On 26 November 1983, a group of men dressed in security uniforms broke into a warehouse just outside of London’s Heathrow Airport, hoping to find large sums of foreign currency. Instead, they found 6,800 gold bars.
Forsyth sees Brink’s-Mat as “the peak of traditional British crime – a bunch of South London robbers pulling off the biggest heist in [British] history.”
“Equally, it was the end of an era. The original robbers lacked the means to manage the proceeds, so a new breed of criminals took over” – those who could turn stolen cash into “vast criminal enterprises.”
The story of the aftermath, along with a few theories, is told in the second series of The Gold, airing now on BBC One and iPlayer.
Here the writer and actors in the series speak about what to expect, the importance of dramatic licence and the intriguing parts of the story that didn’t make it to screen.
Israel’s endgame may be regime change in Iran – but it’s a gamble
Israel’s endgame may be regime change in Iran – but it’s a gamble. The strikes have killed the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the chief of staff of the armed forces, and many other high-ranking IRGC chiefs. Israel may calculate that the attacks and killings could unsettle the regime and open the way for a popular uprising. With a population of about 90 million people, events in the country would have a massive impact across the Middle East. The Iranian opposition forces have been highly fragmented in recent years and there are no clear options here. It might be too early to analyse the full extent of Friday’s attacks, but last year there were no strong indications that Iranians saw those events as an opportunity for toppling the regime. However, those events didn’t even come close to the level of destruction during the attacks during Friday’s destruction of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The attacks on Iran on Friday were carried out in response to Iran’s missile attacks on Israel.
2 hours ago Share Save Amir Azimi Editor, BBC Persian Share Save
Getty Images Some Israeli attacks hit populated areas in Tehran and other places
Beyond Israel’s stated goal of destroying what it calls an existential threat from Iran’s nuclear capabilities with its attacks on Friday, Benjamin Netanyahu has a wider aim – regime change in Tehran. Under this scenario, he might hope that the unprecedented strikes start a chain reaction leading to unrest that topples the Islamic Republic. He said in a statement on Friday evening that “The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around its flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime.” Many Iranians are unhappy with the state of the economy, the lack of freedom of speech, women’s rights, and minority rights.
Israel’s attack is posing a real threat to Iran’s leadership. The strikes have killed the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the chief of staff of the armed forces, and many other high-ranking IRGC chiefs, and the Israeli attack is not yet over. Iran retaliated in the afternoon, with the Revolutionary Guard saying it carried out attacks against “dozens of targets, military centres and airbases”. The situation escalated quickly and after Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks, Netanyahu said, “More is on the way”. More of Iran’s leaders could be targeted. Israel may calculate that the attacks and killings could unsettle the regime and open the way for a popular uprising. At least this is what Netanyahu hopes for. But this is a gamble – a big one. There is no evidence that such a chain reaction will start in the first place, but even if it starts, it is unclear where such a process might lead. Those with the most power in Iran are the people who control the armed forces and the economy, and most of that is in the hands of hardliners in the IRGC and some other unelected bodies. They don’t need to stage a coup because they are already in power, and they could take Iran in a more confrontational direction.
EPA-EFE/Shutterstock Missiles launched from Iran as seen over Jerusalem
Another possible outcome could be regime collapse followed by Iran’s descent into chaos. With a population of about 90 million people, events in the country would have a massive impact across the Middle East. Israel’s desired outcome seems to be an uprising that ends with a friendly force taking over, but a major question here is who might be the alternative? Iranian opposition forces have been highly fragmented in recent years and there are no clear options here. After the unrests in 2022, known as the “Woman Life Freedom” movement that took most of Iran like a storm, some opposition groups tried to form a coalition of a wide range of anti-Islamic Republic groups and activists. But that didn’t last long due to differences in their views on who leads the coalition and what will be the shape of the regime after toppling the current one. Israel’s leaders might see some of these groups or personas as preferred alternatives. For example, the Iranian former crown prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s former Shah, who was overthrown in the country’s 1979 Islamic revolution. He lives in exile and has been actively trying to influence foreign players to support his cause. He also visited Israel in recent years. Although he has gained popularity among some Iranians, it’s not clear whether that could quickly transform into a force for regime change.
There’s also the Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK), an exiled opposition group that backs the overthrow of the Islamic Republic but is against going back to the monarchy. Founded as a left-wing Muslim group, it previously staunchly opposed the shah. After the revolution, the MEK went to Iraq and joined Saddam Hussein in the early 1980s during his war against Iran, which made them unpopular among many Iranians. The group continues to be active and has friends in the US, some of whom are close to Donald Trump’s camp. However, it appears to have less influence with the White House than during Trump’s first term, when senior US officials including Mike Pompeo, John Bolton, and Rudy Giuliani appeared at MEK gatherings and gave supportive speeches. There are other political forces as well, from those who want to establish a secular democracy to those who seek a parliamentary monarchy and so on. It might be too early to analyse the full extent of Friday’s attacks, but during last year’s exchanges of fire between Iran and Israel, there were no strong indications that Iranians saw those situations as an opportunity for toppling the regime. However, those events didn’t even come close to the level of destruction during Friday’s attacks.
Islamic Republic’s endgame