Kabul, Afghanistan’s Capital, Could Run Out of Water by 2030 – The New York Times
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Diverging Reports Breakdown
The country’s urbanization is growing rapidly; Afghanistan is not ready for such a speed
In 1950, only five percent of the Afghan population lived in cities; this figure has reached 25 percent by 2022 and is expected to increase to 50 percent by 2060. According to the UNHCR, Afghanistan’s cities are not yet ready for such a rapid growth.
However, according to the UNHCR, Afghanistan’s cities are not yet ready for such a rapid growth. The programme said: “We must act now to use urbanization as a positive driver for change.”
According to the UNHCR, more than 40 percent of Afghanistan’s urban population lives in Kabul; The city is currently facing its most serious environmental and water crisis.
Experts have warned about the depletion of Kabul’s groundwater, saying that the Afghan capital could become the first city to run out of water altogether.
According to a recent report by the non-governmental organization Mercy Corps, the water level in Kabul’s groundwater resources has dropped by up to 30 meters in the past decade due to rapid urbanization and the climate crisis.
According to the report, water extraction is currently 44 million cubic meters more than the natural recharge of groundwater annually.
It has been warned that if this trend continues, all of Kabul’s groundwater resources will dry up by early 2030, threatening the city’s seven million residents.
A Capital City Is Nearing An Absolute Water Crisis For The First Time In Modern History
For the first time in modern history, a capital city is on the verge of having its water resources run completely dry. Kabul relies entirely on groundwater that is replenished by runoff from glacier melt, but the amount of available water continues to drop. The city is using far more groundwater than the mountains can replenish in any given year, and the mismatch is draining resources on both a personal and governmental level. People without resources are depending on private companies or charitable donations to have enough water to drink, and residents are spending a significant amount of their monthly income on a basic necessity for life. It’s beginning to affect the future of a new generation as well, a Mercy Corps representative tells CNN. The world is going to have to work together to come up with workable solutions to this crisis. If you thought that was interesting, you might like to read a story that reveals that the precious metal gold isn’t as precious as you thought it was. Read it here: Gold is the most precious metal on Earth.
Now, for the first time in modern history, a capital city is on the verge of having its water resources run completely dry.
In Kabul, Afghanistan, it’s getting more difficult – and more expensive – for families to fill their water buckets every single day. It comes into town every morning in tankers, and families rush to fill their buckets and cans before it runs out.
One resident, called Raheela, says they “don’t have access to drinking water at all. Water shortage is a huge problem affecting our daily life.”
Estimates from Mercy Corps and UNICEF predict the city could run out of groundwater completely as soon as 2030, and that event could lead to an economic collapse. It’s being exacerbated by population growth, the climate crisis, and overuse.
Families are trying to supplement dwindling supplies with rainwater, but that’s unreliable in the best of times.
“We are deeply concerned,” Raheela admits to CNN. “We hope for more rain, but if things get worse, I don’t know how we’ll survive.”
Kabul relies entirely on groundwater that is replenished by runoff from glacier melt, but the amount of available water continues to drop. The city is using far more groundwater than the mountains can replenish in any given year, and the mismatch is draining resources on both a personal and governmental level.
Some families, like 28yo Ahmad Yasin’s, have dug deeper wells in search of more water. In the meantime, they wait in longer and longer lines, and told CNN this is causing more problems for him and his family.
That was holding us back from our work and was affecting our income.”
This is the reasons for the deeper wells, and even though they did find water at 120 meters deep, it’s not safe to drink.
“Since we spent all our money on the well, we cannot afford to buy a water filter or purified water. Hence, we boil the well water for extended periods of time, let it cool and then drink it.”
Mercy Corps confirms that up to 80% of Kabul’s groundwater is contaminated due to industrial and private waste pollution. People in Kabul get sick all the time from drinking water that has been contaminated before being distributed.
Najibullah Sadid, a water resource management researcher, told CNN that Kabul is being hit particularly hard by climate change as well.
“We are getting more and more rain, but less and less snow. That’s impacting a city which has less infrastructure to regulate the flash floods…Snow was helping us, but now we have less, and that’s harming us in terms of groundwater recharge.”
People without resources are depending on private companies or charitable donations to have enough water to drink, and residents are spending a significant amount of their monthly income on a basic necessity for life.
It’s beginning to affect the future of a new generation as well, a Mercy Corps representative tells CNN.
“The hours that children should be spending in school, they are now basically spending on fetching water for their families. These harmful coping strategies further deepen the cycle of poverty and vulnerability for women and children.”
Women are at risk, too, due to the fact that they sometimes have to choose between following the Taliban rule of not going outside unescorted by a male guardian and fetching necessary water.
Indeed, politics are also contributing to the crisis. After the Taliban took over in 2021, development and security assistance to the country froze, and humanitarian aid hasn’t been able to fill all of the gaps. This has worsened with the US’s current administration’s decision to halt foreign aid altogether.
In 2025, Afghanistan has received only $8 million of the $264 million required for water and sanitation in Kabul and beyond.
Mercy Corps says the “dangerous mix” of “collapsing local systems, frozen funding, and growing regional friction” is creating a crisis that will be hard to recover from.
Families are going to have to move in order to have access to water.
And that is likely to create a whole new host of problems – and not just in Afghanistan.
There are no easy answers to problems like this one, but it’s clear the world is going to have to work together to come up with workable solutions.
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Kabul’s water crisis: How unsustainable foreign aid projects made it worse
Kabul is on the brink of running out of water, with the UN expecting that by 2030 its aquifers could dry up. Experts say the crisis stems not only from natural and local causes, but also decades of unsustainable foreign projects and mismanagement of aid. About one-third of Afghanistan’s population — around 12.5 million people — lack reliable access to water, according to the latest data from the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan. The existing water supply system, designed decades ago, can no longer meet basic demand for a much smaller population, experts say. The city has not seen a comprehensive water management plan since 1978, as many as 2 million people could be forced to leave in search of water in 2030, the UN says. The loss of water to Kabul could lead to the refugee crisis of the 20th century, as the city could never be able to cope with the demand for water again, experts warn. The U.N. estimates that at least 30 percent of reconstruction aid, or $19 billion, was lost to waste, fraud, and abuse.
About one-third of Afghanistan’s population — around 12.5 million people — lack reliable access to water, according to the latest data from the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan.
In the country’s capital, the situation is even worse, with the UN expecting that by 2030 its aquifers could dry up — a projection that has been in international media since last month, as that would make Kabul the first modern city to run out of water.
“Without urgent action, like bringing in surface water from other basins, Kabul risks facing a severe crisis, potentially a ‘Day Zero’ like Cape Town experienced a few years ago,” Obaidullah Rahimi, an Afghan scholar whose doctoral research at the University of Kaiserslautern-Landau focuses on urban water management, told Arab News.
“The city’s groundwater can only cover about 44 million cubic meters — enough for just 2 million people at a modest per capita consumption of 50 liters per person per day.”
This means that less than 30 percent of Kabul’s 6.5 million residents have access to the WHO’s basic water requirement to ensure minimum essential needs for health, hygiene, and basic consumption.
Years of excessive and unregulated groundwater extraction, combined with prolonged drought, shrinking rainfall, and the thinning of the Hindu Kush snowpack — the primary natural source for the city’s rivers and aquifers —have pushed Kabul to the edge.
But these problems are not new and have only worsened as they have not been addressed over the two decades, when Afghanistan was occupied by foreign forces following the US invasion in 2001.
Despite the billions of dollars that entered the country in foreign development projects, Kabul’s water management systems were hardly touched.
“A significant portion of this aid was spent on short-term, small-scale projects without considering future impacts on the water balance of the Kabul basin and failed to establish large-scale water conservation infrastructure that could maintain and preserve this balance,” Rahimi said.
Dr. Ahmad Shah Frahmand, a geographic information systems and remote sensing expert specializing in mapping changes in water surface areas, said that also the way the projects were implemented, along with the lack of knowledge transfer, prevented them from having a lasting impact.
“International donors funded networks and pipelines across Kabul, often constructed by foreign contractors with little local involvement. But within just a few years, many of these systems fell into disrepair due to poor construction and a lack of oversight,” he told Arab News.
“One of the biggest failings was the focus on short-term fixes over long-term solutions. Aid money was frequently funneled into demonstration projects — temporary wells, pilot programs, or highly visible installations that offered quick results but little durability. Meanwhile, large-scale infrastructure like dams, reservoirs, and water treatment plants received far less attention and funding.”
According to Frahmand, less than 10 percent of the water sector budget was spent on training and maintaining local staff.
“Without skilled technicians, engineers, and maintenance crews, even well-built systems can crumble. And in Kabul, many already have,” he said.
A report published by the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction in 2020 — a year before the withdrawal of American-led forces from Afghanistan — estimated that at least 30 percent of reconstruction aid, or $19 billion, was lost to waste, fraud, and abuse.
Additional audits by the oversight agency suggested the true figure may have been 40 percent due to corruption and mismanagement.
As foreign donors have left the country and international sanctions have been slapped on it since 2021, when the Taliban took over after the US forces withdrew, there are no funds for big infrastructure projects, especially as Afghanistan is already facing several other humanitarian crises.
“In a country desperate for stable infrastructure, these funds could have transformed lives. Instead, many projects stalled, failed, or were quietly abandoned,” Frahmand said, highlighting how urgent redesigning Kabul’s water systems has been, as the city has not seen a comprehensive water management plan since 1978.
“Kabul’s infrastructure was never built for the population it now serves. The existing water supply system, designed decades ago for a much smaller population, can no longer meet basic demand. Millions of Kabul residents now rely on tankers, private vendors, or unsafe wells to access water.”
By 2030, as many as 2 million people could be forced to leave Kabul in search of water, according to projections by the UN refugee agency. Water loss could lead to the extinction of local fish species and a collapse of biodiversity in the region.
“The agricultural sector is already under immense pressure. The Food and Agriculture Organization forecasts a 40 percent drop in crop yields across Kabul province by 2035. For a population already grappling with food insecurity, this decline could tip entire communities into hunger and poverty,” Frahmand said.
“If urgent action is not taken, the coming decade could bring irreversible social, environmental, and economic consequences that reshape the city and the lives of those who remain in it.”
Why Kabul could become first capital city to run out of water
Kabul could be the first modern city to run out of water within five years. Water levels have dropped by up to 30 metres over the past decade. More than 120,000 borewells have been dug without regulation. Up to 80 percent of the city’s groundwater is polluted with sewage and chemicals. Some families are spending 30 percent of their income just on water. Wheat prices have jumped by 40 percent since 2021, and as many as 500,000 agricultural jobs are at risk. The lack of water has already forced the closure of some schools and health clinics. The report is a testament to the corruption which plagued Western-backed governments in Kabul.
Mercy Corps’ website defines it as a “global humanitarian organisation” that is working to help people in crisis build “secure, just and prosperous communities”.
What’s new here
The city’s underground water levels have dropped by up to 30 metres over the past decade, forcing people to dig deeper and deeper into the ground.
Kabul now extracts 44 million cubic metres more water each year than nature can replace. If this continues, the aquifers that supply most of the city’s water could run dry by 2030, forcing the displacement of three million people.
Almost half of all boreholes in Kabul are already dry. More than 120,000 borewells have been dug without regulation, and many factories and greenhouses continue to pump groundwater without any check on the limits.
Residents now dig deeper than ever, with some wells going as far as 300 metres underground — that’s almost the length of the Eiffel Tower.
Over half the households surveyed said they had to re-drill their borewells at least once in five years, and some up to five times.
The water that’s still available is often unsafe. Up to 80 percent of the city’s groundwater is polluted with sewage and chemicals like arsenic and nitrates.
In many parts of Kabul, raw waste from toilets and factories flows directly into the ground or into open canals, further polluting the water supply. Locals often report water that smells bad, tastes strange or causes illness.
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Why is it significant
Today, only 20 percent of homes in Kabul are connected to water pipelines.
Kabul was the epicentre of US-led coalition forces, which invaded Afghanistan for two decades. Hundreds of billions of dollars were spent on trying to defeat the Taliban, who are now in government.
The report is a testament to the corruption which plagued Western-backed governments in Kabul.
A $40 million World Bank project in 2006 had aimed to connect half the city to piped water by 2010, but the goal was never met.
Most people now rely on borewells or buy water from private vendors. Some families are spending up to 30 percent of their income just on water.
In Khair Khana district, the cost of water has even surpassed that of food for many households. Water tankers charge up to $5 per cubic metre, which is 12 times more than the historic price.
The crisis is not only environmental, it’s humanitarian, economic and political. The lack of water has already forced the closure of some schools and health clinics.
Crops are failing due to rising salinity and lower groundwater levels. Wheat prices have jumped by 40 percent since 2021, and as many as 500,000 agricultural jobs are at risk.
Many families are falling into debt just to buy water.
For the first time in modern history a capital city is on the verge of running dry
For the first time in modern history a capital city is on the verge of running dry. “We don’t have access to (drinking) water at all,” Raheela, who goes by one name, told CNN. ‘It’s a health crisis, an economic crisis, and a humanitarian emergency all in one,’ Mercy Corps’ Afghanistan director of programs said.“We hope for more rain, but if things get worse, I don’t know how we’ll survive,�” she said. � “Since we spent all our money on the water, we cannot afford to buy a new water or a new filter,“ said Ahmad Yasin, 28, who lives in a joint family of 10 in the city’“That was holding us back from our work and was affecting our income,” he said of the city’s lack of water. ”It is a huge problem affecting our daily life.”
“We don’t have access to (drinking) water at all,” Raheela, who goes by one name, told CNN. “Water shortage is a huge problem affecting our daily life.”
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An Afghan boy sits atop a potable water tanker on a hillside in Kabul on April 27. (Photo credit: Wakil Kohsar/AFP/Getty Images via CNN Newsource)
(CNN) — As the sun rises over Kabul’s parched mountains, a family’s daily struggle to find water – and to make it last – is about to begin.
The sound of water tankers rumbling through Raheela’s neighborhood in the Afghan capital prompts the 42-year-old mother of four to rush out to the street to fill her family’s battered buckets and jerrycans. The family’s supply is always running low, she says, and every liter is expensive, stretching nerves and their budgets to breaking point.
“We don’t have access to (drinking) water at all,” Raheela, who goes by one name, told CNN. “Water shortage is a huge problem affecting our daily life.”
An Afghan girl stands next canisters as she waits to fill them up with water in Kabul, Afghanistan, November 13, 2021. (Photo credit: Petros Giannakouris/AP via CNN Newsource)
Kabul is inching toward catastrophe. It could soon become the first modern capital in the world to run completely dry according to a recent report by Mercy Corps, a non-government organization that warns the crisis could lead to economic collapse.
Population growth, the climate crisis, and relentless over-extraction have depleted groundwater levels, experts say, and nearly half the city’s boreholes have already gone dry.
Raheela’s family must pay for every drop of water, and watch how they use it carefully, sacrificing food and other essentials just to drink and bathe.
“We are deeply concerned,” she said. “We hope for more rain, but if things get worse, I don’t know how we’ll survive,” she told CNN.
It’s an emergency that “is not just a water issue,” warned Marianna Von Zahn, Mercy Corps’ Afghanistan director of programs. “It’s a health crisis, an economic crisis, and a humanitarian emergency all in one.”
A potent mix
Just three decades ago, Kabul’s population was less than 2 million, but the toppling of the Taliban in 2001 led to an influx of migrants, lured by the promise of increased security and economic possibility.
As its population grew, so did the demand for water.
Kabul relies almost entirely on groundwater, replenished by snow and glacier melt from the nearby Hindu Kush mountains. But years of mismanagement and over-extraction have caused those levels to drop by up to 30 meters over the last decade, according to Mercy Corps.
Kabul now extracts 44 million cubic meters more groundwater each year than nature can replenish, Mercy Corps said, a staggering imbalance that’s steadily draining the city’s reserves and its residents’ finances.
Some families, like Ahmad Yasin’s, have dug deeper wells, searching for more water to fill their buckets.
Yasin, 28, lives in a joint family of 10 in the city’s north. For months, he has queued along with his brother for hours every day at the nearby mosque, which has access to a big well, to bring full buckets home for his children, parents, nieces, and nephews.
“That was holding us back from our work and was affecting our income,” he said. So they saved for six months, sacrificing food, to come up with 40,000 Afghanis ($550) to dig a well in their backyard.
Yasin and his brother dug 120 meters before they could find any water – and while this water is free to use for all their basic needs, they can’t drink it. “It’s not safe,” he said.
“Since we spent all our money on the well, we cannot afford to buy a water filter or purified water. Hence, we boil the well water for extended periods of time, let it cool and then drink it.”
Up to 80% of Kabul’s groundwater is contaminated, according to Mercy Corps, a consequence of widespread pit latrine use and industrial waste pollution.
Diarrhea and vomiting are “problems people experience all the time in the city,” said Sayed Hamed, 36, who lives with his wife, three children and two elderly parents in the northwestern Taimani district.
“We often get sick due to contaminated water either by drinking in someone else’s house, in a restaurant, or even by brushing our teeth with the well water,” the government worker said.
The crisis is further compounded by Kabul’s vulnerability to climate change.
Neighbors gather to fill their drums with drinking water in Azara neighborhood in Kabul on June 14, 2023. (Photo credit: Rodrigo Abd/AP via CNN Newsource)
“We are getting more and more rain, but less and less snow,” said Najibullah Sadid, a water resource management researcher and member of the Afghan Water and Environment Professionals Network. “That’s impacting a city which has less infrastructure to regulate the flash floods… Snow was helping us, but now we have less, and that’s harming us in terms of groundwater recharge.”
If current trends continue, UNICEF predicts Kabul could run out of groundwater by 2030.
When water runs dry, many turn to tankers
Those without the means to dig hundreds of meters for water are at the mercy of private companies or must rely on donations.
Rustam Khan Taraki spends as much as 30% of his income on water, mostly buying from licensed tanker sellers.
But for families who can’t afford to spend this much, the only option is to walk often long distances to mosques, which can provide water.
An Afghan boy fills his potable water tanker from a pump on the outskirts of Kabul on April 27. (Photo credit: Wakil Kohsar/AFP/Getty Images via CNN Newsource)
Dawn sees Hamed, the government worker, lining up for hours at a nearby well to fill two buckets for his family. During the day, two of his children – 13 and nine years old – line up for a refill, sometimes skipping school to carry heavy buckets up their steep hill in the scorching sun.
The crisis is taking a toll on the children’s future, said Von Zahn from Mercy Corps. “The hours that children should be spending in school, they are now basically spending on fetching water for their families.” she said.
“These harmful coping strategies further deepen the cycle of poverty and vulnerability for women and children.”
Women shoulder much of this crisis — forced to walk for hours across Kabul just to fetch what little water they can, risking their safety under the Taliban’s oppressive rule which prohibits them from going outside without a mahram, or male guardian.
“It is not easy for a woman to go out, especially under the current circumstances where women need to have male company from her family to be able to go out,” a 22-year-old Kabul resident, who did not want to disclose her name for safety reasons, told CNN.
“There are numerous difficulties for every woman or girl to go out alone to get water. They could be harassed or bothered on the way,” she said.
CNN has contacted the Taliban for a response.
A dire future
Beyond the climate crisis, population growth and mismanagement, Kabul’s water crisis is compounded by deep political turmoil.
The Taliban seized control of the country in August 2021 following the chaotic withdrawal of US-led forces after nearly two decades of war, tipping the country to the brink of economic collapse as development and security assistance to the country froze.
Since then, humanitarian aid – aimed at funding urgent needs through non-profit organizations and bypassing government control – filled some of the gap. But US President Donald Trump’s decision earlier this year to halt foreign aid has further set back the country with crippling consequences.
The freeze in US Agency for International Development (USAID) funds is “one of the biggest impacts,” said Von Zahn from Mercy Corps. By early 2025, only about $8 million of the $264 million required for water and sanitation had been delivered.
“So what we’re seeing is a dangerous mix: collapsing local systems, frozen funding, and growing regional friction — all while ordinary Afghans face a worsening crisis every day,” she said.
That leaves the future of many living in Kabul in limbo.
Years ago, when Raheela and her family moved to their current neighborhood, the rent was cheaper, the mosque had water and life was manageable, she said.
Now, she doesn’t know how much longer they can survive in the city.
“We won’t have any other choice but to be displaced again,” she said, “Where will we go from here? I don’t know.”
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