Lula and Modi Take Center Stage as BRICS Begins With Xi Absent
Lula and Modi Take Center Stage as BRICS Begins With Xi Absent

Lula and Modi Take Center Stage as BRICS Begins With Xi Absent

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Can BRICS project unity amid global tensions? – DW – 07

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The influence of BRICS, a global forum championed by China, Russia, and India, is on the rise. Still, even its major members have to negotiate internal conflicts amid challenges posed by the Trump administration.

A two-day summit of the BRICS grouping of emerging economies starts Sunday in Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro, as the global forum seeks to build consensus and cohesion after the group expanded over the past two years.

BRICS styles itself as a counterweight to western multilateral institutions like the G7, and describes its role as a “political and diplomatic coordination forum” for countries of the Global South.

Brazil, which holds the grouping’s rotating presidency, is focusing the Rio summit on strengthening Global South cooperation for more inclusive governance.

In the run-up to the official conference, negotiators from member states have met to find common ground that will shape discussions on issues like access to vaccines, disease prevention, ethical implementation of artificial intelligence and enabling Global South action on climate change.

China’s Xi to miss summit for first time

The leaders of Russia and China, two of the grouping’s key members, will not travel to Brazil to attend the 17th BRICS summit.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely skipping the summit to avoid an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for war crimes. Russia has said Putin will join via video link.

Chinese President Xi Jinping will not attend a BRICS summit for the first time since he became China’s leader in 2012. His absence is more of a mystery. China’s Foreign Ministry said Premier Li Qiang would represent China, and did not provide a reason as to why Xi is staying behind.

Russia’s Vladimir Putin (shown right of China’s leader Xi Jinping) hosted the 2024 BRICS summit Image: Alexander Shcherbak/TASS/dpa/picture alliance

The South China Morning Post (SCMP), which first broke news of Xi’s absence, cited unnamed Chinese officials that Xi had a “scheduling conflict” and had met Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva twice in the past year.

The report included that an exclusive invitation to a state dinner from da Silva to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi would also have been bad imaging for Xi.

Another possible source of tension is Brazil’s decision to not join the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing’s keystone global infrastructure financing scheme.

Modi’s rising star?

China has positioned itself as the vanguard of BRICS expansion and ambition, but Xi’s absence at the Brazil summit gives India’s Modi the opportunity to take center stage. India is due to take up the BRICS presidency in 2026, and New Delhi is eager to expand on its global diplomatic outreach.

Modi’s appearance in Brazil is part of a five-nation tour, his longest diplomatic circuit in 10 years, which also includes Trinidad & Tobago, Argentina, and two African countries, Namibia and Ghana.

BRICS is a forum where both the Chinese and Indians have been “trying to come to terms with who is a better spokesperson for the Global South,” Harsh V. Pant, head of the Strategic Studies Program at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), a New Delhi-based think tank, told DW.

The summit “might give Modi the opportunity to amplify that part of India’s foreign policy agenda” and Xi’s absence “certainly gives him more space to maneuver,” Pant said.

India’s Narendra Modi met with China’s Xi Jinping at the 2024 BRICS summit Image: China Daily/REUTERS

“When BRICS started, it was about emerging powers trying to retain space in the global multilateral economic order. There was an unease with Western dominance of global economic institutions, and India wanted to work with emerging powers. At that point, India believed there was space to work with Russia to balance China. Today, those considerations are up in the air,” Pant added.

Limitations of BRICS

BRICS, originally called “BRIC” after founding members Brazil, Russia, India and China, eventually added an “S” with South Africa in 2010. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates joined in 2024, but the acronym remained the same.

Indonesia officially joined earlier this year, bringing the membership to 10 countries. Saudi Arabia has been invited to join, but has held off on formalizing membership. Dozens of other countries have shown interest.

Statistically, BRICS countries comprise 40% of the global population, and the share of global GDP at purchasing power parity comes in at more than 35%.

However, the grouping has so far found it difficult to turn that potential clout into a viable alternative to Western-led multilateral institutions.

Fundamentally, BRICS is more of a loose grouping than a bloc like the EU, or an alliance like NATO. And with more members, finding consensus becomes more complicated.

One of BRICS most ambitious undertakings has been the New Development Bank (NBD), a development financing institution founded in 2015 as an alternative to institutions like the World Bank, which Global South countries believe is failing to meet their needs.

The NBD has seen some success in funding infrastructure projects in developing countries using local currencies. BRICS is now seeking to build on that track record. A press release from Brazil said the 2025 summit will seek consensus on making the NBD the “main financing agent for industrialization in the Global South.”

However, the NBD’s smaller size makes it unlikely to emerge as a challenger to the World Bank and the global financial system.

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Other ideas like a common BRICS currency to counter the US dollar have fallen flat, partly due to China’s economic dominance, which would give it an outsized weight over other members.

Moreover, internal disagreement persists over issues like Russia’s war in Ukraine. A key narrative used to promote BRICS was based on an appeal to legitimizing principles, like the idea of national sovereignty, and non-intervention of countries in another’s domestic affairs.

“The problem is that you have Russia there, which is now challenging the sovereignty of other countries. You have China there, which is challenging the sovereignty of India and of several other countries in the maritime space,” said ORF’s Pant.

Geopolitical tensions between China and India include a border dispute and China’s support for Pakistan during the recent skirmish between Islamabad and New Delhi.

There are “divergences between India and China that are quite significant,” Pant said.

“China remains uncomfortable with wider issues about India’s rise and role in the global hierarchy,” according to the Indian expert.

With Trump, it is every BRICS member for themselves

BRICS has also notably failed to muster a common response on the string of geopolitical and economic challenges coming from the US, including Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs.

When Iran, a member of BRICS, was bombed by the US, BRICS members issued a strongly worded joint statement expressing “serious concern” over attacks against “peaceful nuclear installations.”

But fellow BRICS members Russia and China, which both have partnership agreements with Iran, did not take any substantive action on Tehran’s behalf.

On Trump’s blanket tariffs, BRICS was absent as a cohesive front for negotiation, despite its massive GDP size on paper.

“By and large we’ve seen a very pragmatic approach by all of these countries in engaging with the Trump administration rather than putting up a fight on some grand principles,” Pant said.

“If you look at the rhetoric and you look at the actual realities on the ground, both the Russians and Chinese at this point are more interested in cutting bilateral deals with Trump. Russians are working with Trump on security architecture in Europe, China is working on a trade deal. Indians are also interested in a bilateral trade deal with the US.”

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“On substance, there is not much there as an example of countries that have the potential to push back against the US, because all of them are cutting bilateral deals,” he added.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic

Source: Dw.com | View original article

With Modi In Limelight, China’s Xi Jinping Skips BRICS Nations Meet? Russian, Iranian Leaders Also Skip

BRICS leaders will meet in Rio de Janeiro from Sunday, with the bloc depleted by the absence of China’s Xi Jinping. China has not said why Xi will miss the summit, a first since he became president in 2012. The grouping — often seen as a Chinese-driven counterbalance to Western power — meets as members face imminent and costly tariff wars with the United States. BRICS members did not issue a strong statement on the Iran-Israel conflict and subsequent military strikes due to their “diverging interests,” according to Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Brazil. But it has also opened many new fault lines, not least over how strongly to challenge the U.S. President Donald Trump has also threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on countries that challenge the dollar’“We’re anticipating a summit with a cautious tone: it will be difficult to mention the United states by name in the final declaration,’ said Marta Fernandez, director of the BRICS Policy Center at Rio’S Pontifical Catholic University.

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BRICS leaders will meet in Rio de Janeiro from Sunday, with the bloc depleted by the absence of China’s Xi Jinping, who is skipping the annual summit of emerging economies for the first time in 12 years.

The grouping — often seen as a Chinese-driven counterbalance to Western power — meets as members face imminent and costly tariff wars with the United States.

Conceived two decades ago as a forum for fast-growing economies, the BRICS have come to be dominated by Beijing, which grew much faster and larger than the rest.

China has not said why Xi will miss the summit, a first since he became president in 2012.

“I expect there will be speculation about the reasons for Xi’s absence,” said Ryan Hass, a former China director at the US National Security Council who is now with the Brookings Institution think tank.

“The simplest explanation may hold the most explanatory power. Xi recently hosted Lula in Beijing,” said Hass.

The Chinese leader will not be the only notable absentee. War crime-indicted Russian President Vladimir Putin is also opting to stay away but will participate via video link, according to the Kremlin.

So too, will Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, whose nation is still reeling from a 12-day conflict with Israel.

Hass said that Putin’s non-attendance and the fact that India’s prime minister will be a guest of honor in Brazil could also be factors in Xi’s absence.

“Xi does not want to appear upstaged by Modi,” who will receive a state lunch, he said.

“I expect Xi’s decision to delegate attendance to Premier Li (Qiang) rests amidst these factors.”

Still, the Xi no-show is a blow to host President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who wants Brazil to play a bigger role on the world stage.

By November 2025, Brazil will have hosted a G20 summit, a BRICS summit, and COP30 international climate talks, all before heading into fiercely contested presidential elections next year.

Lula is expected to run again for an unprecedented fourth term in office.

– ‘Cautious tone’ –

For BRICS leaders who do make the trip to the “cidade maravilhosa” — the marvelous city — the economy will be top of the agenda.

Lula defended the idea of finding an alternative to the dollar for trade among BRICS nations on Friday.

“I know it is complicated. There are political problems,” Lula said at a BRICS banking event. “But if we do not find a new formula, we are going to finish the 21st century the way we started the 20th.”

But with many, including China, locked in difficult trade negotiations with the United States, they may be wary of roiling the mercurial US president.

President Donald Trump has warned that starting Friday, countries will receive letters stating the amount their exports to the United States will be tariffed.

He has also threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on countries that challenge the dollar’s international dominance.

“We’re anticipating a summit with a cautious tone: it will be difficult to mention the United States by name in the final declaration,” Marta Fernandez, director of the BRICS Policy Center at Rio’s Pontifical Catholic University, told AFP.

This is particularly the case for China, she said: “This doesn’t seem to be the right time to provoke further friction” between the world’s two leading economies.

On a range of other issues, from the Middle East to climate, BRICS members will have to overcome deep-seated differences.

– Consensus-building difficult –

Original members of the bloc Brazil, Russia, India, and China have been joined by South Africa and, more recently, by Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia.

Analysts say that it has given the grouping more potential international punch. The BRICS now represent nearly half of the world’s population and 40 percent of its GDP.

But it has also opened many new fault lines, not least over how strongly to challenge the United States.

This expansion “makes it all the more difficult to build a strong consensus,” said Fernandez.

BRICS members did not issue a strong statement on the Iran-Israel conflict and subsequent US military strikes due to their “diverging” interests, according to Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation.

Brazil, nevertheless, hopes that countries can take a common stand at the summit, including on the most sensitive issues.

“BRICS (countries), throughout their history, have managed to speak with one voice on major international issues, and there’s no reason why that shouldn’t be the case this time on the subject of the Middle East,” Brazil’s Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira told AFP.

Artificial intelligence and global governance reform will also be on the menu.

© Agence France-Presse

Source: Eurasiantimes.com | View original article

With Xi Jinping Skipping BRICS Meet For First Time, PM Modi Set To Take Centre Stage At The Summit In Brazil’s Rio

China’s President Xi Jinping will not attend the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro. Xi is expected to be joined by Russian President Vladimir Putin and other leaders. The meeting will be the first to be held without India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is due to take part in the event. The event is also a chance for the leaders to discuss issues such as terrorism and climate change, as well as economic and trade issues. The summit will be held on July 8 and 9, and will be open to all members of the BRICs and non-members of the Group of 20, including the US, Russia, China, India, Brazil, Australia and New Zealand. It is the first time the group has been reduced to 10 members, and the first since it was formed in 2009. The move is seen as a way for the group to focus on economic and political issues, rather than just on security issues.

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As the BRICS bloc meets in Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro on 6 and 7 July for its annual summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to take centre stage, with Chinese President Xi Jinping skipping the event for the first time.

Xi’s absence, along with that of Russian President Vladimir Putin and several others, has elevated expectations from India and Brazil to lead the agenda of the 10-member group, which now includes Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, UAE, and Indonesia.

Secretary in Ministry of External Affairs Dammu Ravi had on Sunday (30 June) downplayed Xi’s absence, stating that PM Modi’s participation reflects “solidarity” with the bloc and an opportunity to deepen ties within the Global South. India is slated to host and chair the BRICS summit in 2026, putting Modi in a prime position to shape the bloc’s direction amid a shifting geopolitical landscape.

Xi’s absence from the annual summit of the influential forum — co-founded by India, China, Russia and Brazil in 2009 and expanded in 2024 and early 2025 to increase number of members to 10 — for the first time has sparked speculation.

Beijing reportedly informed the Brazilian government that Xi had a scheduling conflict. Instead, Premier Li Qiang is expected to lead the Chinese delegation, as he did at the G20 summit in India in 2023.

Xi’s recent meetings with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — once during a state visit to Brasília last November and again in May during the China-CELAC Forum in Beijing — were reportedly cited as reasons for his absence from the Rio Summit.

According to reports, there are speculation that Xi’s decision might also have been influenced by Lula’s invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a state dinner following the summit — a move that some interpret as potentially diminishing Xi’s perceived prominence at the event.

With both Xi and Putin absent—China represented by Premier Li Qiang and Russia by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov— the group is focusing on practical cooperation in less controversial areas to avoid internal divisions, SCMP reported.

The bloc’s expanded membership brings new opportunities and frictions, especially as members navigate sensitive issues such as UN Security Council reform and dollar independence.

This comes as consensus-building remains a challenge for the expanded group.

A previous attempt by Brazil, India, and South Africa to push for permanent UNSC seats failed to produce a joint statement.

However, the bloc did manage to issue a unified response condemning US-Israeli strikes on Iran earlier this year, hinting at selective coherence on geopolitical issues.

India may use this summit to advocate stronger language on counterterrorism in the aftermath of 22 April Pahalgam terror attack, in which 26 innocent people, mostly tourists, were killed by Pakistan-backed terrorists, and India’s Operation Sindoor against terror infra in Pakistan and PoK.

Indian officials are confident the final BRICS declaration will reflect shared understanding on this issue.

However, China is likely to oppose the inclusion of anti-terror language in a bid to defend Pakistan due to its close relationship with Islamabad.

Indian officials have also clarified that while Global South countries were “looking for alternatives” in trade, it wasn’t a “de-dollarisation issue”.

The Rio summit is taking place amid growing questions about BRICS’ ability to act as a coherent voice for the Global South.

To avoid internal divisions, Brazil is keeping the summit’s focus on common ground—issues like healthcare, green energy, and fair trade.

Security topics, including India’s push for stronger counterterrorism language, are still being worked out behind the scenes.

With new members in the mix and key leaders absent, questions remain about how united the group really is.

Much now depends on whether the leaders who are present—especially Prime Minister Modi—can bring the bloc together and keep the momentum going.

Also Read: RBI Tightens UPI Security With DoT’s Mobile Number-Based Fraud Detection System—What You Need To Know

Source: Swarajyamag.com | View original article

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