Macron: Forced Iran regime change would trigger ‘chaos’
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Diverging Reports Breakdown
Macron warns violent Iran regime change would trigger ‘chaos’
Macron’s remarks come as fears snowball over the U.S. potentially joining Israel’s military campaign in Iran. Trump said he wanted a “real end” to the conflict and that he was “not too much in a mood to negotiate” Macron said he was not offended by Trump’s broadside, calling his comment “an incident”
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Tuesday that U.S. President Donald Trump was indeed considering that option. On his way back to the U.S. yesterday evening, Trump said he wanted a “real end” to the conflict and that he was “not too much in a mood to negotiate.”
Macron mentioned forced regime changes carried out by the U.S. and NATO allies in Iraq and Libya as past mistakes that should not be repeated, given they had birthed subsequent deadly political instability.
“Collectively didn’t we see the consequences this had in the region and elsewhere? Does anyone think that what was done in Iraq in 2003 was a good idea? Does anyone think that what was done in Libya in the previous decade was a good idea? No,” Macron said, noting that countries of the region don’t need “chaos.”
No offense
Trump had earlier slammed Macron for suggesting that the U.S. leader was leaving the G7 early to finalize a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Trump said the French president “always gets it wrong” and he was not negotiating a ceasefire.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that U.S. President Donald Trump was indeed considering that option. | Teresa Suarez/EPA
Macron said he was not offended by Trump’s broadside, calling his comment “an incident.”
Everything you need to know about the French political crisis
After weeks of speculation and talks, Macron tapped Michel Barnier as premier in early September. Barnier cobbled together a government with the backing of Macron’s centrists and a small band of conservatives. By tapping a conservative premier who pushed the government further to the right, Macron tied Barnier’s future to the whims of Le Pen and the National Rally.
By tapping a conservative premier who pushed the government further to the right, Macron tied Barnier’s future to the whims of Le Pen and the National Rally. The president and premier banked on the fact that the National Rally, which has spent years trying to sell itself as a respectable, mainstream political force, wouldn’t immediately take down a rightward-leaning government that was amenable to some of their ideas on immigration and security.
So the National Rally offered Barnier tacit support, while reserving the right to pull the plug on it should he fall afoul of their red lines relating to purchasing power, security and immigration.
Why now?
Barnier made it clear from day one that his priority was to bring down the French budget deficit, the difference between the amount a country spends and the amount it brings in.
France spent massively to keep the economy afloat during and after the pandemic, which caused the deficit to spike to 5.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2023, prompting the European Commission to place France under what its calls an “excessive deficit procedure” — closer scrutiny that can culminate in sanctions if targets aren’t met.
The Commission requires eurozone members to limit their deficit to a maximum of 3 percent of GDP to guard financial stability and remain in the good graces of creditors.
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier resigning after parliament’s no-confidence vote
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier resigns after losing a vote of no confidence in parliament. President Emmanuel Macron urgently seeking ways to halt growing political and financial chaos. No indication early Thursday of how quickly Macron would appoint Barnier’s successor, nor what their political leanings might be. Paris stock exchange fell at the opening on Thursday before recovering to show small gains, while the yields on French government bonds were again under upward pressure in debt markets.”We are now calling on Macron to go,” Mathilde Panot, head of the parliamentary faction of the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party, told reporters. “France probably won’t have a 2025 budget,” said ING Economics in a note, predicting that the country “is entering a new era of political instability,” a ratings agency said. “We are in a political stalemate,” said the head of a far-left parliamentary faction, “and we need to end it.” “It’s time for a new government,” said a spokesman for the far-right National Assembly party.
A majority of lawmakers supported the no-confidence vote Wednesday that was proposed by the hard-left and backed by the far-right, headed by Marine Le Pen.
Barnier’s record-quick ejection comes after snap parliamentary elections this summer that resulted in a hung parliament, with no political force able to form an overall majority and the far-right holding the key to the government’s survival.
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier speaks during a no-confidence debate at the National Assembly in Paris, France, Dec. 4, 2024. Bloomberg/Getty
The trigger for Barnier’s ouster was his 2025 budget plan including austerity measures that were unacceptable to a majority in parliament, but that he argued were necessary to stabilize France’s finances. On Monday he had forced through a social security financing bill without a vote.
The successful no-confidence motion cancelled the government’s entire financing plan, leading to an automatic renewal of the current budget into next year, unless any new government can somehow rush through approval of a new budget by Christmas — an unlikely scenario.
“France probably won’t have a 2025 budget,” said ING Economics in a note, predicting that the country “is entering a new era of political instability.”
Moody’s, a ratings agency, warned that Barnier’s fall “deepens the country’s political stalemate” and “reduces the probability of a consolidation of public finances.”
The Paris stock exchange fell at the opening on Thursday before recovering to show small gains, while the yields on French government bonds were again under upward pressure in debt markets.
Macron now has the unenviable task of picking a viable successor. The president was to address the nation Thursday evening, his office said. Macron has more than two years of his presidential term left, but some opponents are calling on him to resign, too.
A protester holds a placard reading “Macron, you stink, get out,” during a rally in Marseille, France, Dec. 5, 2024, as part of a day of action and strike in the public sector. CLEMENT MAHOUDEAU/AFP/Getty
National Assembly Speaker Yael Braun-Pivet on Thursday urged Macron to waste no time in choosing a new premier, saying France could not be allowed to “drift” for any length of time.
There was no indication early Thursday of how quickly Macron would appoint Barnier’s successor, nor what their political leanings might be.
Loyalist Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu and Macron’s centrist ally Francois Bayrou have been touted as possible contenders, as has former Socialist premier and interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve.
With the support of the far-right, a majority of 331 MPs in the 577-member chamber voted to oust the government on Wednesday night. It was the first successful no-confidence vote since a defeat for Georges Pompidou’s government in 1962, when Charles de Gaulle was president.
Macron flew back into Paris just ahead of the vote after wrapping up a three-day state visit to Saudi Arabia, an apparent world away from the domestic crisis.
“We are now calling on Macron to go,” Mathilde Panot, head of the parliamentary faction of the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party, told reporters. She urged “early presidential elections” to solve the deepening political crisis.
But taking care not to crow over the government’s fall, Le Pen said in a television interview that her party — once a new premier is appointed — “would let them work” and help create a “budget that is acceptable for everyone.”
Laurent Wauquiez, the head of right-wing deputies in parliament, said the far-right and hard-left bore the responsibility for a no-confidence vote.
Barnier is the fifth prime minister to serve under Macron since he came to power in 2017, with every premier serving a successively shorter period.
Given the composition of the National Assembly, there is no guarantee that Barnier’s successor will last any longer.
Strike calls across transport, education and other public sector services were kept in place Thursday despite the disappearance of the austerity budget that has prompted so much anger.
The plunge into more uncertainty comes ahead of the reopening of the Notre-Dame cathedral on Saturday after a 2019 fire, a major international event hosted by Macron.
Guests include Donald Trump, who will make it his first foreign trip since being re-elected to serve as the U.S. president for a second term.
French far-right’s Le Pen may regret her risky bid to topple government
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen appears to be betting her future on ousting President Emmanuel Macron before his term ends in 2027. To do so, she has helped trigger France’s second political crisis in six months. Prime Minister Michel Barnier chose to ram through parliament a key component of the 2025 budget bill after Le Pen and her National Rally (RN) party rejected a last-minute concession aimed at securing their support. The RN’s decision to wield the knife underlines the power of a once-fringe party that became the largest parliamentary force after this summer’s snap election. But it is a risky play at a complex domestic and geopolitical moment from a party seeking to portray itself as a stable government in waiting. But even if Le Pen’s gambit brings the RN to power sooner than expected, she will inherit the same fiscal mess that humbled Barnier, with investors increasingly alarmed by France’s 6% budget deficit. She is on trial for embezzling EU funds, with a verdict due on March 31.
PARIS, Dec 3 (Reuters) – French far-right leader Marine Le Pen appears to be betting her future on ousting President Emmanuel Macron before his term ends in 2027, lawmakers and analysts say. To do so, she has helped trigger France’s second political crisis in six months.
It’s a decision that may haunt her.
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Prime Minister Michel Barnier on Monday chose to ram through parliament a key component of the 2025 budget bill after Le Pen and her National Rally (RN) party rejected a last-minute concession aimed at securing their support.
Barnier’s minority government is almost certain to lose the resulting no-confidence motion on Wednesday, brought down by the far right and the left combined.
The RN’s decision to wield the knife underlines the power of a once-fringe party that became the largest parliamentary force after this summer’s snap election.
But it is a risky play at a complex domestic and geopolitical moment from a party seeking to portray itself as a stable government in waiting.
And even if Le Pen’s gambit brings the RN to power sooner than expected, she will inherit the same fiscal mess that humbled Barnier, with investors increasingly alarmed by France’s 6% budget deficit.
“The RN is wrong to vote to topple the government because it will bear the responsibility,” Eric Woerth, a former minister and lawmaker from Macron’s camp, told Reuters. “It is they who will have pressed the button and no-one else… The RN has shown that it is not a party of government.”
Paul Molac, a centrist lawmaker, told Reuters the RN may be vulnerable to Barnier’s claims it seeks to “heap disorder atop disorder,” making it harder to win support from the moderate conservatives it needs to win the Élysée.
“Marine Le Pen wants to be president and she’s organising chaos?” said centre-right lawmaker Yannick Neuder.
The RN cannot topple the government alone and will need to join forces with the left, a group she has often described as a grave danger to France. That, too, could weaken her standing among more moderate conservatives.
Le Pen appeared aware of that danger, writing on X on Tuesday that critics alleging “collusion between the National Rally and (the hard-left) France Unbowed” were spreading “disinformation.” She has previously rejected accusations the RN are “artisans of chaos” as “fake news.”
EARLY ELECTION?
Le Pen on Monday said Barnier should have done more to incorporate the RN’s concerns given its strong showing in the election.
She said the constitution provided three ways out of the crisis. Two of them – a reshuffle or another dissolution of parliament – were currently unviable, leaving a third and final option: Macron’s resignation.
“This is the decision and the responsibility of the President of the Republic,” she said.
RN spokesman Philippe Ballard told Reuters Macron’s resignation “could be a way out” of the crisis.
Patrick Weil, a historian of the far right, said Le Pen had made a risky move but her reasons for doing so were clear.
“She wants an early election,” he said, predicting Le Pen would reject all Macron’s proposed prime ministers, forcing him into resigning. “It’ll be checkmate. If all the governments he names are rejected, what can he do?”
RN lawmaker Thomas Ménagé told Reuters any future government that failed to incorporate the party’s budgetary red lines “will very quickly face a no-confidence motion.”
Observers say a Macron resignation is unlikely but not impossible. Should he step down, the Senate president would step in until a new presidential election for a full term can be held.
As part of the budget negotiations, the RN had called for the scrapping of an electricity tax hike, to raise pensions in line with inflation, to scrap cuts to medication reimbursements, freeze a gas tax hike and cut France’s EU contributions.
TRYING TIMES
Le Pen’s political future may also be influencing her decision-making. She is on trial for embezzling EU funds, with a verdict due on March 31. Prosecutors have sought an obligatory five-year ban from public office that would prevent her from running for president in 2027.
Le Pen denies the allegations, and that her legal woes are influencing her calculations. Still, her attacks against Barnier’s budget intensified after the prosecutors made their request, and people close to Barnier said they thought the trial had forced her to change tack.
Ultimately, her hopes of reaching the Élysée may rest on winning an early election.
She’s not the only political figure to bet on a pre-2027 vote: Macron’s former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe in September announced his candidacy for “the next presidential election” and his allies said he wasn’t ruling out a presidential election as soon as 2025.
Macron, who can only be impeached by a two-thirds majority in both houses, has already rejected resigning early.
“But as we have seen before, Macron can surprise and shift from previous positions,” EuroIntelligence said in a note.
The crisis is unlikely to please investors who this week pushed French borrowing costs above those of Greece.
“The RN says ‘I don’t have the solution to plug the hole, it’s up to the government to plug the hole,'” said Woerth, the Macronista lawmaker. “It’s an incomprehensible, irresponsible position.”
Writing and additional reporting by Gabriel Stargardter; Editing by Hugh Lawson
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