
Market sluggishness, dollar & yields, oil: Market takeaways
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Diverging Reports Breakdown
Trump’s Tariff Policy Leaves Markets Uncertain. Investors Should Focus on the Long Term
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WWE: Unreal Season 1 Review
The first season of Unreal tracks several wrestlers, matches, and ongoing storylines from WWE’s debut on Netflix through its annual springtime flagship, WrestleMania. Some faces, like Hollywood mainstays John Cena and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, will be familiar to newcomers. Others, like Australian goth queen Rhea Ripley and electric Samoan sensation Jey Uso, haven’t yet broken through to the mainstream, but their broad appeal makes them the perfect subjects for this speed-run through the WWE basics. “Our business is about telling stories,” says former competitor and current Chief Content Officer Paul “Triple H” Levesque= in the first episode, inadvertently tipping his hand towards the fiction of WWE: Unreal itself. The third episode, titled “Worth the Wait”, gestures towards the vulnerabilities, creative anxieties, and tensions that inform the storylines of female WWE superstars including up-and-comer Chelsea Green and weathered veteran Charlotte Flair.
The first season of Unreal tracks several wrestlers, matches, and ongoing storylines from WWE’s debut on Netflix through its annual springtime flagship, WrestleMania – “wrestling’s Super Bowl,” as numerous stars and executives remind us. Some faces, like Hollywood mainstays John Cena and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, will be familiar to newcomers. Others, like Australian goth queen Rhea Ripley and electric Samoan sensation Jey Uso, haven’t yet broken through to the mainstream, but their broad appeal makes them the perfect subjects for this speed-run through the WWE basics, aimed at telling even non-fans what they already know: that wrestling, while hard-hitting and high-flying, is scripted entertainment. “Our business is about telling stories,” says former competitor and current Chief Content Officer Paul “Triple H” Levesque= in the first episode, inadvertently tipping his hand towards the fiction of WWE: Unreal itself.
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What the unacquainted may not realize – and what the series hopes they won’t – is that for the longest time, any film or documentary with WWE’s stamp of approval has rewritten history. Unreal is no exception: Its attempt to pull back the curtain happens entirely on WWE’s terms, resulting in a sterile depiction of the creative process with few meaningful struggles or butting of heads – as though each match and storyline were destined to be perfect from its inception. This removes the backstage friction that provides much of the promotion’s allure, making Unreal a passive experience.
The major problem with this framing is one that ardent fans will immediately recognize. Since the 1990s – and especially in the modern age of social media – being attuned to wrestling has meant following the ins and outs, the breaking news from journalistic sources, the nuggets of rumors and juicy gossip wherever one can find them. By and large, pro-wrestling fans love this razor-thin line between fantasy and reality, and how contract disputes or real-life animosity between wrestlers shows up on screen in ways the company may not always be able to help. With Unreal, WWE tries to capitalize on this form of engagement, but attempts to exert control where it otherwise can’t, reframing every moving part and possibility as a known quantity.
WWE: Unreal Gallery
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Thankfully, that’s not always the case; the third episode, titled “Worth the Wait”, gestures towards the vulnerabilities, creative anxieties, and tensions that inform the storylines of female WWE superstars including up-and-comer Chelsea Green and weathered veteran Charlotte Flair. However, Unreal very quickly drops each of these threads in favor of an uncanny, robotically smooth version of events. For instance: Green’s intriguing onscreen struggle, as a Canadian, to get booked on a major Canadian show is entirely forgotten the next time WWE is seen returning to Canada. Of the male competitors, only Cena is afforded the chance to be emotionally exposed, as he discusses aging and competing in his final year before retirement. In true WWE fashion, very few storylines feel complete, and no other company exists in the wrestling landscape – even though several of the featured wrestlers came up through rival promotions like AEW.
Unreal’s structure is straightforward, cutting between the in-ring action, backstage coordination, and subsequent interviews. This occasionally yields entrancing moments, like when the directors in the production truck are forced to keep up with story turns that were closely guarded all the way up to air, resulting in the creative highwire act of live editing on the fly. But this is just one of several components in the making of WWE that receive a scant few minutes of screentime in Unreal. More often, it does what any wrestler might when delivering a “promo” on the mic: using the guise of storytelling to very explicitly sell you something. Give an embittered character a few, uninterrupted minutes on air, and they’ll threaten to beat up their opponent at a designated time and place, not-so-subtly reminding you when to purchase the next pay-per-view event. Unreal, meanwhile, tracks the timeline of each episode with an onscreen calendar where Monday night is marked “Raw” and every Friday is marked “SmackDown,” training us to remember when to tune in next.
Nonfans aren’t going to be swayed by Unreal – they’re going to decide if wrestling is worth their time based on wrestling itself.
It’s understandable that WWE would want to expand its audience, given the company’s now worldwide, instantaneous reach. But that results in Unreal spending way too much time explaining the rules or various match types. It’s a bore for anyone remotely familiar with wrestling – who, as it happens, is exactly the kind of person who might be interested in a behind-the-scenes documentary in the first place. Nonfans aren’t likely to be swayed by a process-oriented instructional video; they’re going to decide if wrestling is worth their time based on wrestling itself.
There’s a whole lo-fi cottage industry tracking this kind of stuff on YouTube, where ravenous fans gather to lap up the latest wrestling scuttlebutt. WWE: Unreal is, in comparison, far too polished and pristine to inspire this type of devotion, lacking any real drama beyond seeing how the next corporate decree translates into ratings. It’s the rare TV show to inspire this thought: They should’ve left it to the amateurs.
Putting markets into perspective as Middle East tensions escalate
Markets ended last week under pressure after a significant escalation in the Middle East, as Israel launched airstrikes against Iran. Equity markets came under pressure, reflecting concerns about potential regional spillover and its implications for global growth and inflation. Historically, markets have shown resilience in the face of regional conflicts. While encouraging economic data, the possibility of rate cuts, and the potential for trade deals give us reasons to remain optimistic, we continue to focus on quality when navigating today’s market. This week’s focus: US economic data defies expectations, UK labor market likely to show more hiring, and potential trade deals with China escalate. The MSCI EAFE Index up 19% and MSCi EM Index up 14% year-to-date in USD terms, compared to the S&P 500 Index at 3%. The FTSE 100 Index up 2%. The DAX Index up 1%. The CAC 40 Index up 0.7%. The S&p 500 Index up 4%. The Nasdaq Index up 3%.
Most telling, however, was the lack of reaction in the US dollar (USD), which only appreciated slightly.2 Normally, one would expect a strong knee-jerk reaction in the USD to events such as these. The lack of movement emphasizes the much-reduced safe haven status that the USD now has.2
Markets have historically shown resilience during regional conflicts
While these developments are serious and warrant close monitoring, it’s important to maintain perspective. Historically, markets have shown resilience in the face of regional conflicts. For example, despite the initial shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, equities recovered and continued to rally in the years that followed.3 Similarly, since the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict on October 7, 2023, markets have largely looked through the volatility, supported by strong corporate earnings and economic momentum.4
Unless a meaningful and lengthy hit to global oil supply takes place — which would require disruption in the Strait of Hormuz — we believe oil prices would likely give back some of their immediate gains.
As we assess the current environment, we remain focused on fundamentals. While encouraging economic data, the possibility of rate cuts, and the potential for trade deals give us reasons to remain optimistic, we continue to focus on quality when navigating today’s market.
This week’s focus:
US economic data defies expectations
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May continued to show limited signs of upward pressure from tariffs. Headline CPI inflation stands at just 2.4% on a year-over-year basis, while the closely watched “core” figure, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, has run at a 2.8% year-over-year clip for three consecutive months.5 US payrolls in May also exceeded expectations, although the pace of job growth and downward revisions to prior months’ data pointed to a labor market that’s beginning to slow.6 Signs of emerging weakness can be seen in applications for unemployment benefits, where recurring claims recently hit their highest level since 2021.7
“Good news” rate cuts come back into play for the US
Lower-than-expected inflation prints, accompanied by resilient yet cooling labor market data, may make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to justify remaining “on hold.” If tariff-induced price increases prove milder than initially thought, the Fed may begin lowering rates in response to “good” inflation news rather than waiting for “bad” employment data before deciding to cut.
Global markets appear priced for expansion
US financial markets viewed last week’s inflation figures as a positive signal for the economy. Stocks rose8, and Treasury rates fell in reaction to the print,9 while the US dollar trended lower,10 likely in anticipation of potential rate cuts. Outside the US, a weakening of the USD, accommodative monetary policy, and room for greater fiscal policy support have led to a strong rally in non-US stocks, with the MSCI EAFE Index up 19% and MSCI EM Index up 14% year-to-date in USD terms, compared to the S&P 500 Index at 3%.11
Treasury auctions show strong demand
Recent concern about the US Treasury market appears to have been overblown. Last week saw solid demand for both 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds,12 following a marginally weaker-than-expected 30-year auction just a few weeks ago. More impressive was that demand remained strong despite a decline in US Treasury yields in the days leading up to last week’s auction, which suggests continued appetite for US debt at various levels of interest rates.
Trade deals progress with China; escalate elsewhere
The US and China met in London last week to discuss an ongoing trade dispute related to export controls. Though details remain limited, a deal was reached in principle for the US to reduce restrictions on the export of advanced computer chips to China in exchange for China providing the US with a steady supply of rare earth minerals, which are vital for manufacturing. Elsewhere, however, President Trump announced that he intended to inform trading partners of unilateral tariff rates within the next two weeks, marking the potential for escalation following months of negotiation.
Weaker UK labor market likely means more Bank of England rate cuts
UK labor data show that while companies aren’t actively laying off workers at a faster pace, they’re hiring more slowly. The number of job vacancies fell further last week as companies seek to manage the cost of higher National Insurance contributions. Further, wage growth is now below the Bank of England (BOE) forecast, indicating less inflation pressure. This weakness in the UK labor market data points to faster BOE rate cuts than are priced by the market. This could mean lower mortgage rates for households and potential support for greater consumer spending.
US Fed Meeting Highlights: Sensex, Nifty rise after Powell-led FOMC keeps interest rates steady
The US Federal Reserve announced its first policy decision for 2024 after a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting today. This is the first interest rate decision of the US central bank since Donald Trump took charge as the 47th US President on January 20. The rate pause comes because officials seek further progress on inflation. US Fed had lowered the key overnight interest rates by a full percentage point in the final months of 2024.
The rate pause comes because officials seek further progress on inflation. This is the first interest rate decision of the US central bank since Donald Trump took charge as the 47th US President on January 20. US Fed had lowered the key overnight interest rates by a full percentage point in the final months of 2024.
US Fed chair Jerome Powell-led rate-setting panel conveyed a more deliberate approach to interest rate decisions. “With our policy stance significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance,” Powell said in a post-policy press conference.
Also Read: US Fed holds benchmark rates steady at 4.25-4.50% in first policy verdict of Trump Presidency; 5 key highlights
In the December policy meeting, US Fed policymakers voted 11 to 1 to slash the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) or (1/4) quarter of a percentage point to 4.25 – 4.50 per cent. That was the US central bank’s third straight interest rate cut of 2024 and the second straight 25 bps rate cut. Then, the US Fed had envisioned only two rate cuts in 2025 after inflation prints revealed that consumer prices remained ‘somewhat elevated’.
The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to act independently and keep inflation and employment in check, primarily by raising and lowering short-term interest rates. Experts believe that under Trump’s presidency, there has been a distinct shift in the dynamics between the administration and the US Fed.
After raising the policy rate by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022 in one of the swiftest Fed reactions to combat the worst outbreak of inflation in 40 years, the central bank held the rate on hold between July 2023-2024 to anchor in high inflation and consistently bring it down toward the two per cent target range.
Why have 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increased since the Fed started cutting rates?
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