The southwest monsoon is likely to be in the ‘active’ phase again with heavy to very heavy rainfall over southern peninsular India, Konkan and Goa during June 12-16, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.

The progress of monsoon was stalled since last two weeks due to dry air intrusion after an early onset last month. “Conditions are likely to be favourable for further advancement of monsoon over some more parts of central and adjoining east India around June 14,” according to IMD.

However, ‘heatwave‘ conditions are likely to continue over northwest India and west Rajasthan till June 12 and abate thereafter.

According to Akshay Deoras, research scientist, National Centre for Atmosphere Science, University of Reading, United Kingdom, a developing tropical cyclone over the south China sea will strengthen monsoon winds over India by June 14 and this will increase moisture over India and help erode the dry air, which has been blocking the monsoon progression since the last two weeks.

“As a result, the monsoon’s progression will restart closer to mid-June, and the monsoon will rapidly advance into eastern and central India in the third week of June,” Deoras told FE.

Meanwhile until June 15, rains will increase over peninsular India, and moderate to heavy rainfall can be expected over parts of Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Goa, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana.

Rainfall during June 1 – 10, according to the MeT department, was 23.9 millimeter which is 32.9% below the benchmark – long period average.

The southwest monsoon arrived over the Kerala coast on May 24, eight days ahead of the normal schedule. This was the earliest onset of monsoon in 16 years.

Typically, the southwest monsoon after onset over the Kerala coast in early June covers the entire country by July. The monsoon rains start gradually receding from the north region from mid-September.

The MeT department last month had reiterated its earlier forecast of ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall during June-September this year, but said June might witness “excess” rainfall.

There is also 90% chanc of the rains being in the “normal-to-excess” range through the four-month (June-September) season, the MeT department has stated.

Around 75% of India’s annual rainfall occurs during the monsoon season, which replenishes water reservoirs, rivers, lakes, and groundwater, which are vital for irrigation and drinking water supplies.