
Morgan Stanley Australia CEO on Business Outlook
How did your country report this? Share your view in the comments.
Diverging Reports Breakdown
Morgan Stanley Australia CEO on Business Outlook
The equity markets have already voted that that we’re through the worst. And we’ve certainly seen that in Australia with some very strong performance across the large cap stocks. We’ve seen a lot of inflow from offshore and I think particularly in April when the market in the US was very spooked, we did see a capital flow to Australia as a safe haven. And when you look at Australia, we have a good economy. We have a government budget that’s in good shape. And a number of our clients are many foreign nationals that have moved to Australia because they want to live in what is a safe and stable environment. And I think we will see the the IPO market open. And then M & A tends to be a more lagging indicator of confidence. Certainly, the M&A pipeline is very strong in Australia and I Think that’s the second half story. And so our proposition to our clients, why we’re growing our wealth business is simply to cater to high net worth clients looking for a global product offering.
Join us at an always exciting time as we get these trade developments. Mostly positive in terms of U.S. China. How has that sort of played into the mood music for your business here? Well, it’s certainly seeing some positive news overnight. Always a good backdrop. The reality is the equity markets have already voted that that we’re through the worst. We’re back to near all time highs. And we’ve certainly seen that in Australia with some very strong performance across the large cap stocks. And I think that’s the market betting on the fact that the worst is behind us. We’re going to see some more stability with the volatility decreasing. How much is Australia also seeing that, I guess, safe haven reputation play out? We’ve certainly seen a lot of inflow from offshore and I think particularly in April when the market in the US was very spooked, we did see a capital flow to Australia as a safe haven. Some of those investors were obviously taking a bet against the US dollars which has played out. And when you look at Australia, we have a good economy, we have a government budget that’s in good shape, we have a lot of government spending, we have a new government in or an ALBANESE government re-elected that has the ability to govern and I think that’s a good stable base that has attracted global capital. Also a lot of private equity capital pointed towards Australia. Given the volatility, we haven’t seen that really come out yet, but it’s waiting on asylum. Has some of that, particularly when it comes to dealmaking sentiment, taking a pause. Certainly the first six months of this year has been difficult on deal flow, but I think we’re about to see that change. We’ve got the two largest IPOs in the market ready to launch in the next two weeks. Virgin IPO, where Bain Capital has done a great job of that business and we’re leading the gym life rate transaction, which is also shaping up well. So I think we will see the the IPO market open. And then M & A tends to be a more lagging indicator of confidence. Certainly, the M & A pipeline is very strong in Australia and I think that’s the second half story. Any particular sectors or areas of growth that you’re targeting for Australia? Look, in terms of Morgan Stanley, where we’ve been waiting on the sideline to see the transaction activity return, we’ve had very strong performance in wealth management and in our institutional equities businesses as clients have repositioned around the global volatility that we’ve seen. But certainly deal volumes in M & A and ECM have been well below historical levels. And I think with the IPO market now open, those first two deals are about to launch. That’s a good backdrop for what will be a better second half in for the investment banks. I’m curious what you’re seeing when it comes to activity for for foreign transactions and foreign inflows, particularly from China as the economy obviously continues to rebalance and slow? Well, certainly if you look at inbound transactions into Australia, historical M & A volumes have been about 60% offshore buyer and the Chinese money was predominant about five or six years ago. It was the largest proportion of that foreign inbound investment. The last three or four years we’ve seen that tail off significantly. And obviously, given the current geopolitical situation, we’re not expecting to see that return in a hurry. But we’re seeing much greater interest out of Europe and the US and Japan when it comes to the wealth proposition for Morgan Stanley here. What are the next steps to progressing that? So Morgan Stanley’s wealth business, Obviously we’re a global leader in wealth management and we’ve got a very large business in Australia. The business proposition for us in Australia is a high net worth business and it’s offering something that’s global to our clients. I think what we’ve seen with the volatility in markets over the over the last four or five months is unless you’re global and unless you’re plugged in, nothing happens in Australia that’s that that hasn’t been caused by something offshore. And so our proposition to our clients, why we keep growing our wealth business is simply to cater for high net worth clients looking for a global product offering. And when it comes to those ultra high net worth and high net worth clients, are you looking specifically at the sort of generational shift in wealth at the moment? How is that transition playing out? That transition is active. Yes. And and clearly, the wealth creation in Australia is phenomenal, as evidenced by the strength in our property markets. It is a destination of choice. And I think further to my earlier comments about a safe haven, Australia’s emerged as a safe haven for wealthy people all over the world. And a number of our clients, many, many of our clients are foreign nationals that have moved to Australia because they want to be here and they want to live in what is a safe and stable environment in Australia. The government mandate coming out of the election result obviously in and of itself provides some sense of continuity. What would you like to see in terms of policy that would benefit the business? Well, look, certainly I don’t think we should turn the tap off on the immigration. I know we have the housing crisis that we have. The government has done a very good job of spending money and supporting our economy, and I think that will continue under the re-elected Albanese government. That underpinning of government spending in our economy has what has made Australia a safe haven. I think the market is voting that even if we do see a market downturn or a mild recession in other parts of the global economy, that we won’t see that in Australia, partially because of our strong budgetary position at a federal level and the fact that our government can keep spending money that’s quite rare in the current environment globally. Most governments are under extreme fiscal pressure. We are not. What are you seeing or planning when it comes to hiring and are you seeing that sort of, I guess, the beneficiary side of Australia being more appealing given some of the brain drain or talent drain out of a US market, for example? Look, we’re not seeing a huge inbound inflow of candidates at the moment. It’s fair to say that in the investment banking industry there hasn’t been a lot of hiring in the last six months as markets have been so volatile. But we are expecting that to change in the second half as we’ve seen IPO markets open in the last three weeks. Once Trump pulls those tariffs, we saw markets open in the US debt markets, IPO markets. We’ve priced a number of IPOs in the U.S. We’re about to price a couple of large ones down here, and I think that will lead to a different environment for hiring people in the country to start being a bit more bullish on adding staff. Yes, And we certainly I don’t think any of the banks have added staff in the last six months. It’s really been a wait and see. While while the market volatility has settled down, we certainly would like to gear up as as we see markets improve over the next six months and going into next year. With regard to the 10 trillion client assets go globally for Morgan Stanley, how do you see Australia fitting into that? Well, look, Australia is the fifth largest pool of savings in the world, which is quite a phenomenal statistic given the size of the Australian economy and Morgan Stanley, not only from an institutional super fund perspective but also high net worth client are very focused on capturing more market share in the Australian market. Given that huge pool of savings and importantly most of our investors, be they institutional or high net worth, are already heavily invested in the Australian market. And so what they’re really focused on is how do I deploy offshore and where should I be taking my bets? And so all of their focus is on global opportunity rather than domestic. What are your growth targets for this market? Well, I think the most important growth target for our market is seeing the M & A and IPO market reopen, quite frankly. If we if we think about deal activity, the last six months has been quite horrible. There’s been no IPOs. There’s been only a few capital markets transactions. The debt markets have remained healthy. But what we really need is a return to more confidence on the M & A product. And we’re certainly about to see that with the APIs that are about to launch. And it’s interesting, equity investors have kind of let that return to confidence, be it just they’re a bit bored with the trade story in the back and or there is this confidence that at least things may not go backwards. Do you think that’s enough for you to have confidence to be able to see that as a catalyst for growth? Heidi, that’s certainly the case. The equity market today has voted that the worst is behind us because we’re back to trading at all time highs. Therefore, the market is already telling us that we can we can work our way through any further announcements that come out. We’re seeing positive progress on the tariff negotiations. We are. We are at a point where we’re look, we’re staring into an interest rate cut cycle and therefore, I think that confidence level is justified. And I just interviewed download from third point on the stage, and his overall thesis was that the US market has got another leg up from here. What’s your biggest risk in the next, well, let’s say for the rest of the Trump presidency? Look, I think it’s been an unpredictable six months, hasn’t it? So I think the thing we need to think the most about is what else is coming out that we don’t expect. I sort of I believe that the market will look through and it’s already voting with its feet, that it’s looking through any daily announcements. It’s already banked that will get through the tariff negotiations and it’s already back trading at high level. When you bring that back to Australia, probably the most important metric for me is the labour market. We’ve got pretty much full employment at the moment, unemployment sitting in the fours, which is a great level. And if that remains at that level, I think we’ll have a greater level of confidence in Canberra around continuing to spend. We’ll see interest rate cuts and we won’t see inflation.