NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has issued a stark warning to NATO members, urging them to commit to spending 5% of GDP on defense or risk having to “get your Russian language course out” The former Dutch PM emphasized the need for increased defense spending as Russia’s aggression in Ukraine persists.

NATO defense ministers have settled on allocating 3.5% of GDP for “core defense spending” on heavy weaponry and air defense systems, while an additional 1.5% of annual GDP will be directed towards security-related areas such as infrastructure and cyber defense.

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“These targets describe exactly what capabilities Allies need to invest in over the coming years,” Mr. Rutte explained to the press. He highlighted the urgency of preparing for potential Russian aggression against NATO, stating: “If we don’t act now, the next three years, we are fine, but we have to start now, because otherwise, from three, four or five years from now, we are really under threat.

NATO’s Mark Rutte urged members to spend 5% of GDP on defense against Russian threats, emphasizing urgent investment in military capabilities.

www.the-express.com

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has issued a stark warning to NATO members about the urgent need for increased defense spending. He emphasized that without committing to 5% of GDP on defense, nations could face dire consequences, particularly given Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine. This message comes as NATO defense ministers agreed to allocate 3.5% of GDP for core defense needs, while an additional 1.5% will focus on security-related areas.

6 Key Takeaways NATO urges 5% GDP defense spending

Current target set at 3.5% for core defense

Emphasis on preparedness against Russian threats

Mathew Whitaker calls for urgent action

European nations criticized for low defense investment

UK and others pledge to enhance defense efforts

Rutte’s remarks, made during a press briefing on 2025-06-09 18:21:00, highlight the critical need for preparedness against potential threats. He stated, “If we don’t act now, we are really under threat,” urging immediate action to bolster defense capabilities. His comments were echoed by Mathew Whitaker, Donald Trump’s ambassador to NATO, who called for European nations to make “credible progress” in their defense investments.

Fast Answer: NATO leaders are urged to commit 5% of GDP to defense amid rising threats from Russia, emphasizing the urgency for collective security investment.

This situation raises important questions about the future of NATO’s defense strategy. Will member states rise to the occasion and meet these spending targets? The implications are significant for global security, as the following points illustrate:

Increased defense spending could deter potential aggressors.

Failure to act may lead to greater reliance on U.S. military support.

Investment in defense infrastructure is crucial for long-term stability.

The growing threats facing NATO highlight the urgent need for collective action to ensure security and stability across Europe.

As the geopolitical landscape evolves, it is vital for NATO members to prioritize defense spending and strengthen alliances. Will they heed the call for action before it’s too late?

Vladimir Putin’s troops spotted massing near NATO border sparking WW3 fears

New satellite imagery shows a significant build-up of Russian troops and military infrastructure near the Finnish border, in a move that has alarmed Nato allies

(Image: SVT )

A shocking upturn in Russian military presence has recently been observed near the Finnish border, reminiscent of the ominous build-up prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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According to top analysts, Russia is swiftly amplifying its military capacity at key sites within northwestern regions. This strategic escalation comes after Finland and Sweden’s bid to join NATO, likely serving as Russia’s promised reprisal for the alliance’s extended frontier by over 800 miles.

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Newly acquired satellite photos from Swedish TV network SVT and provided by Planet Labs have pinpointed heightened activity at four critical military locations: Kamenka, Petrozavodsk, Severomorsk-2, and Olenya. It comes as Putin’s ‘deadliest ever weapon’ was unveiled with a terrifying new warning.

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Close to the Finnish border, in Kamenka, a startling number of over 130 military tents were set up from February, suggesting space for roughly 2,000 troops. Formerly unremarkable land here teems with new military life.

“This is a sign of increasing activity,” remarked Finnish military expert Emil Kastehelmi to SVT, reports the Mirror.

Russia had previously vowed “military-technical response measures” against the NATO membership expansion, and the unfolding developments seem to underline this retaliatory stance.

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Putin massing troops on the border of Finland (Image: MAXAR TECH )

“When we applied for NATO membership, Russia said it would take such steps. We are now seeing that happen,” Sweden’s Chief of Defence Michael Claesson said.

This recent escalation bears a disturbing resemblance to the events of late 2021 when US intelligence detected a build-up of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border, which ultimately led to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Satellite images show extensive construction at Petrozavodsk, just 100 miles from the Finnish border. Three large warehouses have appeared, likely capable of housing dozens of armored vehicles, with more still under construction.

Three large warehouses have been built which experts say are storage halls for armoured vehicles (Image: SVT )

Further north, the previously inactive Severomorsk-2 airbase is now operational, hosting several helicopters and showing signs of recent refurbishment, just 70 miles from Norway and 110 miles from Finland.

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Meanwhile, at Olenya airbase, approximately 90 miles from the Finnish border, Russian bombers are reportedly being used to strike targets in Ukraine, according to Kyiv.

Last month, Finland’s Deputy Chief of Defence, Lieutenant General Vesa Virtanen, warned that Moscow is “deliberately testing NATO’s unity” using hybrid tactics such as cyberattacks and mass cross-border migration to see if it will trigger Article 5, the alliance’s collective defence clause. He now says the Kremlin is shifting towards more overt military deployments.

According to Virtanen, Russia’s latest military maneuvers indicate a significant ramp-up. “During the war [in Ukraine], there were about 20,000 soldiers and four standby brigades. Now we see new infrastructure and, as soon as they’re able, more troops in this region,” he detailed.

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He further explained that Russia is regrouping its forces into a larger fighting unit, “There will be more troops there in the future than before the Ukraine war,” he commented.

In light of these developments, he assured that Finland remains vigilant: “Finland stands ready, and has done so for decades.”

Wednesday, May 14, 2025. 8:25 AM EST

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here’s a look at today’s headlines, broken down by region of the world.

THE TOP HEADLINES Report for Wednesday, May 14, 2025 Trump secures $600 billion Saudi investment pledge on Gulf tour Ghost in the machine? Rogue communication devices found in Chinese inverters The U.S. Nuclear Base Hidden Under Greenland’s Ice for Decades Trump meets Syrian president, urges him to establish ties with Israel Mandiant founder says AI-agent attacks initiated by cybercriminals only a year away

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES For U.S. Defense Industry, These Minerals Really are ‘Critical.’ The Cipher Brief’s deep dive into the U.S.-China rare earths conflict reveals serious national security vulnerabilities stemming from America’s reliance on China for critical minerals essential to aerospace, defense, and high-tech industries. China currently processes nearly 90% of the world’s rare earths and has imposed export restrictions on several, including gallium and germanium, which impact both military and dual-use technologies. Experts Dak Hardwick (Aerospace Industries Association) and Dan Blumenthal (American Enterprise Institute) warn that even minerals not directly used in weapons, like titanium, are crucial and difficult to source domestically due to permitting and regulatory obstacles. Although allied countries like Australia and Canada offer potential alternative sources, most raw materials still require processing in China. Mitigating this dependency will take years and demands structural reforms in U.S. mining policy, long-term investment in refining infrastructure, stable government funding, and credible legislative signals to spur market confidence and industrial development away from Chinese dominance.The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS At nearly $142 billion, the White House claims the largest defense deal ‘in history’ with Saudi Arabia . On Tuesday, the White House announced what it said was the largest U.S. defense sales agreement in history—a nearly $142 billion package with Saudi Arabia. The deal includes air and missile defense systems, maritime and land force modernization, space and communication upgrades, and military training. Specific platforms remain unclear, with no mention of the F-35, which Saudi Arabia reportedly wants. Many deals remain unfinalized. Experts like David Des Roches expect upgraded Patriot systems to be central. However, concerns over tech security, particularly regarding Chinese 5G in Gulf states, may limit F-35 sales. The broader $600 billion Saudi investment commitment into U.S. industries was also highlighted. While defense contracts remain a key feature of U.S.-Gulf ties, experts caution that Gulf perceptions of declining U.S. reliability as a security partner persist. Breaking Defense The Guardian Euronews US slashes ‘de minimis’ tariff on small China parcels to as low as 30%. The U.S. will reduce tariffs on low-value shipments from China under a new executive order by President Trump, easing trade tensions after a deal with Beijing to pause most tariffs for 90 days. The “de minimis” duty for direct-to-consumer shipments up to $800 will drop from 120% to 54%, while commercial carrier shipments like those from UPS and FedEx will face a lower 30% tariff, down from 145%. The move benefits Chinese e-commerce giants, though experts note the high tariffs still mark the end of a boom in cheap, fast shipments from China. Trump had previously ended duty-free status for such packages, citing concerns about trade abuse and fentanyl trafficking. Reuters Boeing has a contract to replace Air Force One. What’s the delay? Boeing is under intense scrutiny for delays in delivering two new Air Force One planes, which were initially promised under a $3.9 billion fixed-price contract awarded in 2018. The planes were due in 2024, but setbacks—including supply chain issues, security clearance delays, workforce turnover, and the pandemic—have pushed the timeline to at least 2027. Boeing has already lost $2.5 billion on the project. Amid frustrations, President Donald Trump has signaled openness to using a luxury Boeing 747 gifted by Qatar until Boeing’s replacements are ready, though it would require militarization. The White House may transfer that plane to Trump’s presidential library foundation before his second term ends. Despite Boeing’s ongoing credibility issues—spanning deadly crashes, manufacturing failures, and cost overruns—experts say the defense contract must continue for national security reasons. The Air Force is trying to accelerate production by waiving some worker clearance requirements and renegotiating contract terms. Washington Post Russia’s Ties with China, Iran Mean Conflicts Won’t Remain Local, US Military Leaders Say . U.S. military leaders warn that deepening ties among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea risk turning regional flashpoints into prolonged, global conflicts, rendering the idea of short, contained wars obsolete. Speaking at a CSIS conference, senior defense officials cited shared military technology, arms transfers, and coordinated geopolitical moves as evidence of a de facto alliance that could escalate any future confrontation. Concerns also center on whether the U.S. defense industrial base is capable of sustaining multiple high-intensity conflicts, given lagging shipbuilding, ammunition shortages, and a sluggish procurement system. Senate Republican Mitch McConnell echoed the alarm, criticizing underinvestment in defense and warning that America cannot deter adversaries without allied cooperation, especially amid rising tensions over Taiwan and in Europe. RFE/RL Navy seeks to fast-track nuclear weapons systems . Vice Admiral Johnny Wolfe, head of the U.S. Navy’s Strategic Systems Program, told Congress that the Navy is accelerating development of three key weapons systems: the Trident II D5 Strategic Weapons System, hypersonic missiles, and the sea-launched nuclear cruise missile (SLCM-N), expected to be ready by 2035. Wolfe underscored the urgent need to modernize the U.S. nuclear infrastructure to maintain strategic deterrence amid evolving global threats. He described the SLCM-N as a vital regional deterrent and the Trident II as the most survivable leg of the U.S. nuclear triad, deployed on ballistic missile submarines. Wolfe also highlighted progress on the Navy’s first hypersonic weapons system, Conventional Prompt Strike, developed in tandem with the Army’s long-range hypersonic program. He stressed that meeting these modernization goals requires increased investment in R&D, skilled personnel, and facility upgrades, calling the work of his command foundational to national security and a top defense priority. Defense News Fincantieri jockeying for position in US naval shipbuilding revamp. Fincantieri CEO Pierroberto Folgiero has positioned the Italian state-controlled shipbuilder as a key player in revitalizing U.S. naval shipbuilding under President Donald Trump’s new executive order. Speaking to analysts this week, Folgiero said Fincantieri’s Marinette Marine yard in Wisconsin, which is building Constellation-class frigates, would benefit from efforts to “debottleneck” U.S. shipyard performance. The program has faced design setbacks, with completion now at 70%—down from 88% in 2020—and running three years behind schedule. Trump has blamed the U.S. Navy for excessive redesigns that have inflated costs and complexity. Folgiero highlighted stronger U.S.-Italy naval cooperation following a recent summit and suggested expanding Fincantieri’s role, including boosting capacity at its Sturgeon Bay yard for icebreaker production and establishing a repair hub in Jacksonville, Florida. He said Fincantieri could help drive a “renaissance” in U.S. shipbuilding by leveraging its technology and experience, especially amid growing Arctic strategic interest. Defense News C.I.A. Rejects Diversity Efforts Once Deemed as Essential to Its Mission. Since the Cold War’s end and especially after 9/11, the CIA underscored workforce diversity not for social justice, but as a strategic advantage. Leaders believed analysts and officers from varied backgrounds would offer better insights, operate more effectively abroad and blend in. Under the Trump administration, however, this commitment has waned. CIA Director John Ratcliffe dismantled diversity recruitment programs, claiming to seek a focus on merit alone. Critics argued this undermines the agency’s effectiveness, and a federal judge blocked the firings of diversity recruiters, prompting legal battles. Historically, the CIA’s predecessor, the OSS, embraced diversity as essential during WWII, but that momentum faded. Only in the post-Cold War and post-9/11 eras did serious diversity efforts return, driven by operational needs. Former officials stress that diversity enhances performance, not political correctness. They argue the agency must reflect global complexity to succeed in its mission. Diversity, they say, is not optional—it’s essential for effective intelligence work. New York Times Ghost in the machine? Rogue communication devices found in Chinese inverters. American energy officials are reevaluating the security risks of Chinese-built power inverters and batteries after experts discovered undocumented communication devices inside some units. These components could bypass firewalls and potentially allow remote disruptions to power grids, raising fears of blackouts or grid destruction. Inverters, essential for linking solar and wind energy to the grid, are mostly made in China. While remote access is standard for updates, rogue communication features raise alarms. The Department of Energy acknowledged concerns, noting gaps in manufacturer disclosures. As tensions with China rise, Washington and its allies are reassessing Chinese involvement in critical infrastructure. Some utilities, like Florida Power & Light, are moving away from Chinese inverters. Huawei, a top inverter supplier, remains dominant globally despite U.S. restrictions. European officials and NATO warn of increasing Chinese control over energy infrastructure, calling for reduced strategic dependence. A 2024 incident also showed that Chinese suppliers could remotely disable inverters, highlighting real-world vulnerabilities. Reuters Trump ‘weakened’ the West as Russian threat rises, warns former NATO boss. Former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen warned that U.S. President Donald Trump has “significantly weakened” the Western alliance and undermined Ukraine’s position by making concessions to Russia—such as considering territorial handovers and lifting sanctions—without extracting meaningful compromises from Vladimir Putin. Speaking ahead of the Copenhagen Democracy Summit, Rasmussen criticized Trump’s approach and predicted continued fighting in Ukraine. He also expressed concern over Trump’s wavering commitment to NATO’s Article 5. Rasmussen called for Europe to boost defense spending, suggesting a new “D7” alliance of leading democracies to counter threats from Russia—and possibly even from a disengaged United States. Politico EU Senate confirms Troy Meink as 27th secretary of the Air Force . The Senate has confirmed Troy Meink as the new Secretary of the Air Force and Space Force in a 74-25 vote, making him the final service secretary in the current confirmation cycle. Meink, a veteran of the U.S. space sector, previously served as principal deputy director of the National Reconnaissance Office and held roles during the Obama administration. His nomination sparked concern among some Democrats due to reports that Elon Musk, founder of SpaceX, allegedly recommended him for the role after Meink helped steer a satellite contract to the company. Meink denied any improper influence, stating that Musk was present but silent during his interview with Trump and made no requests of him. At his confirmation hearing, Meink emphasized expanding the defense industrial base, advancing space control technologies, and accelerating acquisition timelines to keep pace with emerging threats. Breaking Defense Defense Scoop Associated Press U.S. not yet shifting forces from Europe to Asia, top NATO official says . NATO’s top military officer, Adm. Giuseppe Dragone, said there’s no current indication that the U.S. will withdraw forces from Europe to shift focus to the Indo-Pacific. However, he stressed that the alliance must plan for such a scenario to allow for a smooth rebalancing. While the Pentagon is increasingly prioritizing China over Russia, Dragone noted that Europe could eventually replace some U.S. military capabilities in areas like electronic warfare, strategic airlift, air defense, and drones. NATO countries have ramped up defense spending since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with 22 of 32 members now meeting the 2% GDP goal, though Trump is pushing for 5%. A proposed 3.5% defense and 1.5% security spending model will be discussed at the summit. Defense News Federal judge rules Trump can use 18th century Alien Enemies Act for deportations. For the first time, a federal judge has upheld President Donald Trump’s use of the Alien Enemies Act to deport Venezuelans allegedly tied to the Tren de Aragua gang. U.S. District Judge Stephanie Haines ruled that the 1798 law can apply to modern threats, likening the gang to pirates, or invading military forces. However, she also limited Trump’s power by requiring the government to give individuals 21 days to challenge deportation orders, countering the administration’s attempt to carry out deportations within hours. Her ruling contrasts with decisions from judges in New York, Texas, and Colorado, who rejected Trump’s interpretation of the law, arguing the gang isn’t a state-backed threat. Haines, however, said that the group is “bent on destabilizing” the country, and “flooding the United States with illegal narcotics.” Her decision applies to one detainee in western Pennsylvania, but creates a legal split likely headed to higher courts. Politico Reuters Associated Press Washington Post Mexican security chief confirms cartel family members entered US in a deal with Trump administration. Mexican Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch confirmed Tuesday that 17 relatives of cartel leader Ovidio Guzmán López, son of former Sinaloa Cartel boss “El Chapo,” crossed into the U.S. last week under a deal with the Trump administration. Video showed them entering from Tijuana, with U.S. agents waiting. Guzmán López, who was extradited to the U.S. in 2023, is reportedly cooperating with U.S. authorities, possibly in exchange for leniency. García Harfuch said the crossing was clearly linked to ongoing negotiations and noted that the family members aren’t wanted in Mexico. The confirmation came as American prosecutors announced narcoterrorism charges against cartel leaders, with officials warning that Sinaloa Cartel members will be relentlessly pursued. “You will be betrayed by your friends, you will be hounded by your enemies, and you will ultimately find yourself . . . here in a courtroom in the Southern District of California,” asserted U.S. Attorney Adam Gordon. Associated Press Venezuelans in El Salvador prison plead for freedom in video . A video aired by One America News Network showing former congressman Matt Gaetz and other Republican lawmakers touring El Salvador’s high-security prison on May 9 also revealed Venezuelan detainees in the facility shouting “freedom” and pleading for help. Deported by the U.S. under Trump’s invocation of the 1798 Alien Enemies Act, these men are alleged members of the Tren de Aragua gang, claims that many of their loved ones dispute. Families, unable to contact the detainees, identified relatives in the footage and expressed anguish over their conditions and lack of legal access. The U.S. has not released a list of the deportees, and federal officials declined to comment on the video. The incident highlights the controversy surrounding Trump’s aggressive immigration and deportation policies targeting alleged foreign gang members. Reuters China, Colombia sign Belt and Road cooperation pact. China and Colombia have inked a joint cooperation plan under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), marking a deepening of economic and diplomatic ties. The agreement was finalized during Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s visit to Beijing, where Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to support Colombian exports, investment, and infrastructure development. China is now Bogotá’s largest source of imports and its second-largest trading partner after the U.S. Colombia joins over 150 countries already participating in the BRI, including more than 20 in Latin America. Petro’s visit also elevated China-Colombia relations to a strategic partnership. The growing Chinese presence in the region highlights its expanding influence in an area traditionally within the U.S. sphere, although Panama recently exited the BRI under U.S. pressure. Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE Inside the Trump administration’s quiet shift on Ukraine. The Trump administration has quietly shifted its stance on the Ukraine war, with growing frustration toward Vladimir Putin replacing earlier criticism of Kyiv. At a recent forum, Vice President JD Vance surprised observers by rejecting Russian peace terms as excessive, signaling a new tone. President Donald Trump had previously shown openness to concessions, such as recognizing Russian control over Crimea, but now appears impatient with Putin’s refusal to engage seriously. Despite efforts to broker talks in Turkey, Moscow’s resistance to a ceasefire has irritated U.S. officials. Relations with Ukraine have improved, bolstered by a new economic minerals deal. While Trump still voices optimism about peace, experts warn that Putin is playing a long game, hoping U.S. support for Ukraine will erode. Bipartisan momentum in the Senate for tougher sanctions suggests continued American backing for Kyiv. Yet questions remain over whether Trump will escalate pressure on Moscow or maintain a balancing act. Financial Times Zelensky to travel to Turkey for peace talks regardless of Putin’s plans. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will travel to Turkey to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara and await Russian President Vladimir Putin’s potential arrival in Istanbul or anywhere else in Turkey for direct peace talks. Zelensky emphasized he would only negotiate personally with Putin, stating that if the Russian leader fails to attend, it will prove Moscow is not serious about peace. In that case, he urged the U.S. and Europe to impose tough new sanctions. Zelensky supports a 30-day unconditional ceasefire as a prerequisite to broader negotiations, including security guarantees and de-escalation measures. Meanwhile, Russia continues its military operations, including missile and drone attacks and fresh offensives in the Donetsk region, particularly near Pokrovsk and Toretsk. Ukrainian intelligence warns that Russia is preparing for a broader assault. While Putin proposed talks between lower-level negotiators, the Kremlin has not confirmed his attendance. Financial Times Trump envoys Witkoff and Kellogg to go to Turkey for Russia-Ukraine talks. U.S. President Donald Trump is sending envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg to Istanbul for potential Ukraine-Russia peace talks on Thursday, sources told Reuters, aiming to revive his push to end the war. The U.S. seeks a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire covering land, air, sea, and infrastructure. Kyiv has agreed, but Moscow’s participation remains uncertain. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenski insists he will attend only if Russian President Vladimir Putin does. Trump has said he will join the talks if Putin appears. Meanwhile, European leaders are preparing tougher sanctions in coordination with the U.S. should Russia reject the ceasefire proposal. Reuters Putin won’t dare meet Zelensky, says EU’s Kallas. At the Copenhagen Democracy Summit on Tuesday, European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas expressed skepticism that Russian President Vladimir Putin will follow through on a proposed meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Turkey this Thursday. While Kallas praised Zelensky’s willingness to engage in direct talks, she questioned whether Putin “dares” to meet. Zelensky accepted the invitation but conditioned Ukraine’s participation on a 30-day ceasefire — a U.S.-backed proposal Russia has yet to accept. Kallas warned against U.S.-Russia agreements that sideline Ukraine, stressing that nothing should be negotiated about Ukraine without Ukraine’s direct involvement. Politico EU Yermak: A Putin no-show at peace talks should trigger new sanctions. Ukrainian presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak told the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, including POLITICO, that the U.S. and its allies should impose new sanctions on Russia if President Vladimir Putin fails to attend peace talks in Turkey this week. Yermak warned that a no-show would signal Putin is not serious about ending the war, stating, “Russia understands only the language of strength.” He emphasized Ukraine’s demand for an unconditional ceasefire before broader negotiations. President Volodymyr Zelensky has invited Putin to Istanbul, and President Donald Trump has said he may attend if both leaders are present. Russia, however, has rejected a ceasefire without first addressing the “root causes” of the conflict. Ukraine has asked the European Commission to prepare a new sanctions package targeting Russia’s energy and financial sectors if it continues to stall peace efforts. Politico We didn’t have the balls to fully back Ukraine under Joe Biden, says Boris Johnson. Speaking at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit on Tuesday, former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson criticized Western leaders under U.S. President Joe Biden for lacking “the balls” to fully support Ukraine during its war with Russia. In an interview with POLITICO, Johnson contrasted Biden’s approach with President Donald Trump’s earlier decision to supply Javelin missiles in 2018, crediting Trump for breaking the taboo on providing lethal aid. Johnson warned that current peace talks risk forcing Ukraine into dangerous concessions and said he fears a ceasefire on “Putin’s terms” could leave Ukraine vulnerable to future invasions and destabilization. Politico EU EU set to impose much higher tariffs on Ukrainian imports. The European Union is preparing to reimpose higher tariffs on Ukrainian agricultural imports starting June 6, as wartime trade waivers expire. Originally introduced after Russia’s 2022 invasion to support Ukraine’s economy, the tariff-free access is being rolled back under pressure from EU farmers, particularly in Poland and France, who blame Ukrainian imports for falling domestic prices. The European Commission’s proposed “transitional measures” would drastically reduce duty-free quotas on key goods such as maize, poultry, and sugar. Ukraine warns the move could slash its revenue by €3.5 billion annually and undermine its economy during wartime. Critics, including EU lawmakers and Ukrainian officials, say the decision sends a damaging political signal and risks a “hard crash landing” for Ukraine’s farm sector. Financial Times Politico EU ‘Go back to Ukraine’: War refugees complain of abuse in Poland. Ukrainian refugees in Poland are reporting a sharp rise in xenophobia, bullying, and abuse amid shifting public sentiment and a heated presidential election. Once welcomed with compassion after Russia’s 2022 invasion, many Ukrainians now face hostility, particularly in schools, workplaces, and online. Refugees describe being told to “go back to Ukraine” and mocked for their language. Anti-Ukrainian sentiment is increasingly driven by far-right political rhetoric and Russian disinformation campaigns, with false claims spreading that Ukrainians are draining public resources. Support for refugees has fallen to 50%, down from 81% two years ago. Even pro-Ukraine politicians like front-runner Rafal Trzaskowski are downplaying their stance to appeal to centrist voters. Activists warn that traumatized refugees—often women and children with loved ones still in the war—are being unfairly targeted. The situation highlights how war fatigue, election politics, and foreign propaganda erode earlier solidarity. BBC ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, May 13. The Russian military is sustaining high casualty rates while still managing to replenish its forces and grow its troop presence in Ukraine, suggesting Moscow is willing to trade losses for modest battlefield gains and negotiating leverage. President Vladimir Putin claimed on Tuesday that Russia is recruiting 50,000–60,000 troops per month, likely inflating these figures to bolster perceptions of military strength. Ukrainian and NATO assessments indicate that Russia is not only maintaining its current offensive pace but also preparing for future conflicts with NATO by rebuilding its military infrastructure and aiming to field a 1.5 million-strong combat-ready force. The Russian military is institutionalizing the use of motorcycles, ATVs, and buggies in frontline units to enhance maneuverability and mitigate Ukrainian drone threats, with efforts underway to formalize a doctrine and supply framework for these lightly equipped assault formations. Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE NATO Is Sketching Out Plan to Meet Trump Call for 5% of GDP on Defense . NATO allies are coordinating on a plan to significantly increase defense spending to meet U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand of 5% of GDP by 2032, aiming for an agreement by the NATO summit in The Hague this June. Current negotiations suggest a target of 3.5% in the next seven years for core defense spending, plus 1.5% for related areas like cybersecurity and military mobility. This would mark the largest defense investment by the alliance since the Cold War. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is leading the initiative, which includes stricter verification mechanisms, and aims to address the U.S.’s disproportionate defense burden. Only some allies have just met the older 2% target. Discussions continue over what spending qualifies under the new 5% framework. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s NATO membership and continued support have not been prioritized in the upcoming summit agenda, reflecting American skepticism. The summit will likely focus on spending, capability development, and NATO’s internal reforms. Bloomberg The U.S. Nuclear Base Hidden Under Greenland’s Ice for Decades . NASA scientists recently rediscovered Camp Century, a secret Cold War-era U.S. military base buried beneath over 100 feet of Greenland’s ice. Built in 1959 as part of Project Iceworm, the base was intended to house hundreds of nuclear missiles aimed at the Soviet Union, though publicly presented as a scientific outpost. Abandoned in 1967 due to ice instability, the facility featured a nuclear reactor and nearly two miles of tunnels. Its existence underscores the deep and often controversial U.S. military presence in Greenland, dating back to World War II and a 1951 treaty allowing American bases. The rediscovery has reignited concerns over sovereignty, environmental risks, and the strategic importance of Greenland, especially amid rising U.S.-China tensions and Trump-era ambitions to acquire the island. Wall Street Journal Denmark’s defense boss not ‘able to imagine’ a US takeover of Greenland . Denmark’s Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen declined to comment on reports that the U.S. has increased spying on Greenland, a Danish territory. Speaking Tuesday at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit, he dismissed President Donald Trump’s renewed interest in annexation, stating it was not a “serious discussion” and reaffirming that the U.S. cannot claim part of the Kingdom of Denmark. Greenland’s Deputy Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede also spoke at the summit, and strongly rejected Trump’s remarks, emphasizing Greenland belongs to its people and is not for sale. Egede asserted that Trump’s actions have only pushed the autonomous territory closer to both Denmark and the EU. While avoiding direct comments on the surveillance claims, Egede expressed frustration over inaction from international partners and urged serious talks with either the EU or U.S. regarding access to Greenland’s critical minerals. Politico EU British Police Investigate Fires at Properties Linked to Prime Minister. British counterterrorism police are investigating a series of suspected arson attacks targeting properties linked to Prime Minister Keir Starmer. A 21-year-old man was arrested on suspicion of arson with intent to endanger life. No injuries were reported. Fires occurred at a rental home Starmer owns in north London, an apartment building where he once lived, and a car in the same area. The Metropolitan Police said their Counter Terrorism Command is leading the probe due to Starmer’s high-profile status. Starmer, who became prime minister in 2024, currently resides with his family at the official residence on Downing Street. Wall Street Journal BBC New York Times Czech Republic: Are arms, not cars, the new economic engine? The Czech Republic, long a global leader in car production, is seeing a rapid rise in its defense industry, fueled by the war in Ukraine. While auto production dropped 7.1% in early 2025 due to weak Western demand and tariff issues, arms manufacturing is booming—especially ammunition, tanks, drones, and radar systems. Defense exports now make up 90% of output, with 40% going to Ukraine. Defense spending rose to 2% of GDP in 2024, with plans to reach 3%. As carmaker Škoda cuts 15% of its workforce, many workers are expected to shift to the fast-growing defense sector with minimal retraining. Deutsche Welle Why a 3.5 Inch Difference in Rail Width Is a $27 Billion Problem for NATO . As tensions flare on the European continent and war rages on in Ukraine, NATO and the EU have increasingly focused on efforts to bolster security and maintain defense readiness, and an old problem has again come into focus. The three former Soviet states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have better rail connections to Russia than the rest of their European allies. These three nations use the 5 ft wide Russian Gauge, not the 4 ft 8½ in European Standard Gauge, an issue that causes delays for passengers and cargo that must switch trains when traveling into the Baltics. This vulnerability could create critical bottlenecks for NATO troops in an event of conflict. It could also give Russian forces the ability to swiftly close in on the region. The $27 billion Rail Baltica project, a key security initiative launched in 2014, seeks to resolve this challenge by laying 540 miles of high-speed rail line connecting the three Baltic states to the rest of the continent. Despite funding hurdles, changes to the original plan, and the fact that it is five years behind schedule, the project will solve a dire issue in interconnection, allowing 143,000 people to be evacuated to Poland from the capitals of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in just one day. Wall Street Journal EU should open door to US on defense despite Trump, says Lithuanian minister. Lithuanian Finance Minister Rimantas Šadžius urged the EU to maintain strong defense ties with the U.S., despite tensions with President Trump, warning that excluding American defense firms from joint procurement would endanger frontline states like Lithuania. As EU negotiations continue over the €150 billion Security Action For Europe (SAFE) regulation, which currently excludes non-EU countries without formal defense agreements, Šadžius argued for including the U.S., calling it a vital NATO partner. He also expressed hope for deeper EU-U.K. defense cooperation, which could help finalize the SAFE framework and strengthen Europe’s collective security posture. Politico EU Cryptocurrency boss’ daughter escapes kidnapping attempt in Paris. A woman identified as the daughter of a prominent French cryptocurrency executive narrowly escaped a kidnapping attempt in Paris on Tuesday morning. While walking with her partner and child in the 11th arrondissement, masked assailants tried to force her into a white van. Her partner and bystanders intervened—one picking up a dropped gun and another throwing a fire extinguisher—prompting the attackers to flee. This incident is part of a troubling rise in kidnappings targeting crypto figures across Europe. Previous cases in France involved ransom demands and mutilation, including severed fingers sent to victims’ families. Euronews 3 Germans go on trial accused of spying for China by exporting military tech. Three Germans went on trial in Düsseldorf, accused of spying for China by illegally exporting military-grade technology. The defendants—a married couple identified as Herwig F., 73, and Ina F., 69, and a third man, Thomas R., 60—allegedly gathered sensitive information on boat engines, sonar systems, armored vehicle propulsion, and military drones from 2017 until their arrest in April 2024. Prosecutors say they acted on behalf of China’s Ministry of State Security, aiming to boost China’s maritime combat capabilities. They are also accused of exporting restricted laser systems to China in violation of European Union trade laws. South China Morning Post

THE MIDDLE EAST Trump secures $600 billion Saudi investment pledge on Gulf tour. During his visit to Riyadh on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a $600 billion investment deal with Saudi Arabia, marking a major economic and diplomatic achievement. The agreement includes partnerships across energy, defense, mining, and technology, and is expected to be executed through deals with over a dozen U.S. companies. A significant component is a $142 billion arms package—the largest U.S. defense cooperation deal to date—covering air and missile defense, maritime security, and advanced communications. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman indicated the total investment could eventually reach $1 trillion as further agreements are finalized. Reuters The Hill New York Times Economic Times Trump meets Syrian president, urges him to establish ties with Israel . In a major diplomatic move, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Syria’s new Islamist-led President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Saudi Arabia, urging him to normalize ties with Israel and signaling a dramatic policy shift by lifting all U.S. sanctions on Syria. The meeting, held alongside Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and joined virtually by Turkey’s President Erdogan, marks the start of potential U.S.-Syria normalization, despite Sharaa’s past ties to al Qaeda. The decision has drawn concern from Israel, which remains wary of Sharaa’s government and continues military operations in southern Syria. The policy change is expected to boost Syria’s post-war reconstruction, with Saudi Arabia pledging economic support. Trump, who praised Sharaa as a “real leader,” also secured major investment deals during his Gulf tour, including $600 billion from Saudi Arabia and a potential jet order from Qatar. Reuters How China’s tech giants wired the Gulf. Crouching in the background of President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE is the reality that a shift is underway: China is rapidly embedding its digital infrastructure across the Persian Gulf. Through its “Digital Silk Road 2.0,” Chinese tech giants like Huawei, Alibaba, Tencent, and ZTE are building sovereign cloud systems, AI surveillance networks, and 5G cores in Gulf cities, offering financing with minimal political strings. Gulf states welcome China’s approach, which emphasizes local data control and avoids pressuring governance reforms, unlike Western models. These partnerships now extend to critical infrastructure, sometimes near U.S. military bases, raising security concerns in Washington. Despite American dominance in regional defense, Gulf governments increasingly rely on Chinese technology, shifting operational influence eastward. As Chinese digital systems expand, they risk complicating U.S. crisis planning, intelligence security, and influence, while exporting Beijing’s tech standards globally. The U.S. must now reassess how it engages allies immersed in China’s digital ecosystem. Defense One Trump hopes for Saudi Arabia to join Abraham Accords and stability in the region. Speaking at the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum in Riyadh on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed hopes that Saudi Arabia will eventually join the Abraham Accords but said the timing is up to them. Trump also called Iran the “biggest destructive force in the Middle East” and warned of “maximum pressure” if Tehran rejects a proposed new nuclear deal. He announced the removal of all U.S. sanctions on Syria, backing the country’s new government and expressing hope for regional stability. The comments followed a $142 billion U.S.-Saudi defense deal, the largest such agreement in U.S. history, according to the White House. The Jerusalem Post Renewed alliance on the horizon as Trump praises Saudi crown prince, Riyadh pulls out all the stops . President Donald Trump received an opulent welcome in Saudi Arabia, complete with musical horns, Arabian horses, and an escort by three F-15 fighter jets. As Trump praised Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, calling him a “great guy” and an “incredible man,” human rights concerns took a backseat. This display of warmth marks a sharp contrast to former President Joe Biden’s earlier stance, when he vowed to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Trump’s visit included announcements of a $142 billion defense deal and a $600 billion Saudi investment package. Critics argue the president is prioritizing economic interests over human rights. Bin Salman, while denying involvement in Khashoggi’s murder, has promoted reforms but continues to face criticism for repressing dissent. Biden, after initially criticizing bin Salman, later sought a diplomatic reset due to geopolitical needs, including rising oil prices. Trump’s close rapport was underscored further, when he pledged to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria at bin Salman’s request, prompting applause and a standing ovation at the Riyadh summit. Reuters New York Times Financial Times Associated Press US to lift sanctions on Syria to give country ‘a chance at peace,’ says Trump. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump announced a major shift in U.S. foreign policy by lifting all sanctions on Syria to support its new government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda commander who overthrew Bashar al-Assad. Speaking at an investment forum in Riyadh, Trump said the move was encouraged by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Trump expressed hope for Syria’s reconstruction and future peace, despite Israeli concerns about Sharaa’s past. The United Nations and bipartisan U.S. lawmakers welcomed the decision as a potential opening for stability and U.S. regional influence. France 24 Reuters Wall Street Journal New York Times Iran Proposes Novel Path to Nuclear Deal with U.S. As an alternative to dismantling its nuclear program, which Iran consistently maintains is for peaceful, civilian purposes, the Islamic Republic has floated the idea of a regional nuclear enrichment venture involving Arab countries and potential U.S. investment. Presented by Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi during recent talks in Oman with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, the plan, which entails creating a three-country nuclear consortium, would allow Tehran to enrich uranium to a low level and export it for civilian use under permanent international oversight. The venture could offer a diplomatic breakthrough, contrasting with Washington’s current demand to entirely shut down Iran’s nuclear facilities. The proposal aims to address security concerns while preserving the country’s nuclear capabilities, which it views as a matter of national pride. While it’s unclear whether regional rivals like Saudi Arabia or the UAE would join such a venture, both seek to avoid conflict and have nuclear ambitions. The initiative has drawn cautious optimism from some experts, who say it could offer a face-saving compromise for both sides and reduce the risk of war. New York Times Houthi ceasefire followed US intel showing militants sought off-ramp. American officials told Reuters that U.S. intelligence had started to realize that Yemen’s Houthi rebels were seeking an escape from a costly, 52-day U.S. bombing campaign, days before Washington reached a surprise ceasefire agreement with the group. The Houthis, who were under intense pressure and were reportedly being encouraged by Iran, began signaling willingness to negotiate through Middle Eastern intermediaries. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff led indirect talks via Oman, culminating in a framework deal. President Trump then declared the Houthis had agreed to stop attacking U.S. ships, a key objective of the campaign that had seemed impossible only months before. The ceasefire came in the wake of heavy U.S. strikes that killed mid-level fighters and damaged Houthi infrastructure, though the group still retains capabilities, and continues to target Israel. The campaign cost the U.S. over $1 billion and caused significant material losses. Trump’s administration has faced scrutiny for prioritizing rapid results over the prolonged campaign initially proposed by military leaders. Reuters Israel says it intercepted a missile from Yemen. The Israeli military intercepted a missile launched from Yemen on May 14, coinciding with U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to the Gulf. The Iran-aligned Houthi group claimed responsibility, saying the missile targeted Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv. This comes shortly after Trump announced a ceasefire with the Houthis, who agreed to stop attacking U.S. ships in the region. However, the Houthis have vowed to continue targeting Israel with missiles and drones in support of Palestinians in Gaza. Reuters Hamas approached pro-Trump activist for quiet talks that liberated American captive Edan Alexander. Backchannel talks that led to the release of American Israeli soldier Edan Alexander from Gaza began when a Hamas official reached out to Bishara Bahbah, a Palestinian American political activist and Trump ally. Hamas hoped to influence President Trump by releasing Alexander without demanding concessions, aiming to soften his stance on the Gaza conflict. With help from Qatari mediators and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, negotiations intensified, resulting in Alexander’s release on Sunday after 583 days in captivity. Israel was not initially informed of the talks and learned about them through its intelligence services. While Hamas expected U.S. sympathy or a policy shift, Trump made no firm commitments beyond the prisoner’s release. Talks for a broader ceasefire and hostage deal will resume in Doha, but Israeli officials are skeptical of progress and plan to resume their military campaign in Gaza if no deal is reached within days. Axios Times of Israel Israel targets Hamas leader Mohammed Sinwar in hospital strike in Gaza. Israel launched a major airstrike on the European hospital in Khan Younis, Gaza, on Tuesday, targeting senior Hamas leader Mohammed Sinwar. Believed to have taken over leadership after his brother Yahya’s death, Sinwar was reportedly using underground infrastructure beneath the hospital. The strike killed six and injured at least 40, with many buried under rubble. Israel’s military confirmed it hit a Hamas command site but did not name Sinwar directly. His removal could affect ongoing hostage negotiations and peace talks in Doha involving U.S. President Trump and envoy Steve Witkoff. Hamas denied Sinwar’s death, calling Israeli claims unverified. CNN Politico EU Axios In Private, Some Israeli Officers Admit That Gaza Is on the Brink of Starvation. Despite Israel’s public denials, internal Israeli military assessments warn that Gaza is nearing starvation due to the ongoing blockade on food and fuel. Military officers have privately told commanders that aid must resume within weeks to prevent mass hunger, aligning with United Nations and humanitarian agencies’ warnings. Most bakeries and charity kitchens have closed, and food prices have soared. A controversial U.S.-Israeli plan to centralize food distribution through a handful of guarded sites is being criticized by aid groups for increasing civilian risk. Legal experts warn that knowingly starving civilians to gain a political or military advantage could constitute a war crime. New York Times Turkey monitoring situation after PKK announces disbandment, official says. Turkey is closely monitoring the situation after the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) announced it would disband and end its decades-long armed struggle. The move follows a call from jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, urging peaceful negotiation for Kurdish rights. The disarmament process, expected to take three to four months, will be supervised in northern Iraq, with possible international involvement. While Turkey sees this as a path to peace, skepticism remains due to past failed ceasefires. Analysts suggest Erdoğan may be using the peace effort to secure Kurdish support for constitutional changes that could extend his presidency beyond 2028. Euronews Reuters Campaigners take the UK to court over the export of F-35 components to Israel. Palestinian rights group Al-Haq and the Global Legal Action Network (GLAN) have taken the UK government to the High Court, challenging its continued export of F-35 jet components used by Israel in Gaza. Although the UK suspended some arms licenses in 2024 due to humanitarian concerns, it exempted F-35 parts, citing global security needs. Campaigners argue this violates domestic and international law, especially amid accusations of Israeli war crimes and potential genocide. Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and Oxfam back the case. Critics highlight the F-35’s role in devastating Israeli airstrikes, which have severely impacted Gaza’s civilian infrastructure. Al Jazeera

ASIA & OCEANIA Times have changed: US-China talks show Beijing has refined the art of dealing with Trump. China has refined its strategy in dealing with President Donald Trump, leveraging lessons from his first term to negotiate from a position of strength in the latest U.S.-China trade talks. Unlike in earlier years, Beijing demonstrated a clear ability to walk away from the table, forcing Washington, burdened by high consumer costs and diplomatic isolation, to seek a deal. Analysts say China’s poise and preparation helped it secure the rollback of most tariffs while projecting itself as the only credible global counterweight to the U.S. Trump, eager to claim a domestic political win, agreed to steep tariff reductions, but analysts argue Beijing emerged with the real long-term advantage: geopolitical leverage, alliance resilience, and growing economic self-sufficiency. South China Morning Post Xi meets Lula: China, Brazil call for ‘more just’ world order amid Trump tariff turmoil. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva met Tuesday in Beijing, pledging deeper cooperation to promote a “more just” multipolar world amid growing tensions with the U.S., particularly over President Trump’s global tariffs. The two leaders condemned unilateralism and protectionism, endorsed direct talks to end the Ukraine war, and signed 20 agreements spanning trade, agriculture, AI, and the Belt and Road Initiative. Xi and Lula positioned China and Brazil as leading voices of the Global South, countering Western dominance and reinforcing strategic ties as an alternative to U.S.-led global systems. South China Morning Post Reuters The Guardian China to present new peacekeeping commitments to UN, defense chief says . China plans to introduce new peacekeeping commitments and support reforms in United Nations peacekeeping operations, according to state news agency Xinhua. Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun reportedly conveyed this during a meeting with UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Tuesday. Dong stressed that China remains a firm and constructive supporter of UN peacekeeping efforts, signaling Beijing’s continued engagement in international security under the UN framework. Reuters Pakistan says it is committed to truce with India, vows to respond to aggression. Pakistan reaffirmed its commitment to a ceasefire with India after last week’s intense border clashes but warned it would fully respond to any future aggression. The truce followed deadly missile and drone exchanges after India struck alleged “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistani territory, retaliating for an attack that killed 26 Hindu tourists in Kashmir. Pakistan denies involvement and claims India targeted civilians. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, visiting a border air base, warned of further strikes if provoked, rejecting “nuclear blackmail.” Diplomatic tensions remain high, with both countries expelling embassy staff. The U.S. played a key role in brokering the fragile truce. Reuters As easy as ABC? How Pakistan unified radars, jets and warning aircraft against India. A recent Chinese defense report highlights how Pakistan’s use of an advanced, networked “ABC” combat system gave it a decisive edge over India in last week’s aerial clashes. The system— “locked by A, launched by B, guided by C”—linked ground radars, fighter jets, and airborne warning aircraft (AWACS) to share real-time data and conduct precise, beyond-visual-range strikes. This allowed Pakistani jets to launch missiles from safe distances, with AWACS guiding them to Indian targets, reportedly downing five Indian aircraft. Analysts say this systemic, intelligent warfare approach neutralized India’s numerical advantage, exposing weaknesses in India’s unintegrated platforms and outdated response coordination. South China Morning Post Pakistan says over 50 killed in last week’s India clashes. Pakistan has raised its official death toll from last week’s clashes with India to 51—40 civilians and 11 soldiers—after India launched strikes in response to a deadly attack on Hindu tourists in Kashmir. India reported 21 deaths, including five soldiers. The cross-border missile and drone strikes marked the worst fighting between the nuclear rivals since 1999. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire now appears to be holding, despite initial violations. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned that military action is only “paused” and vowed retaliation if more terror attacks occur. Both sides remain tense, with India blaming Pakistan for harboring militant groups, a charge Islamabad denies. Deutsche Welle Taiwan tests its new US-made HIMARS rocket systems for the first time. Taiwan successfully conducted its first live-fire test of U.S.-made HIMARS rocket systems, firing 33 rockets during military drills in Pingtung. The precision-strike exercise, part of Taiwan’s strategy to bolster asymmetric defenses against China, also featured domestically produced Thunderbolt-2000 launchers. HIMARS, used effectively in Ukraine, can target up to 300 kilometers away and is seen as vital in deterring a Chinese invasion. Taiwan received its first batch in 2024 and has ordered 18 more, including 84 tactical missiles. As PLA activity intensifies near the island, Taipei is expanding its defense budget and deepening military ties with the U.S. South China Morning Post CNN US Revokes Temporary Protection for Thousands of Afghans. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced it would revoke Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for around 11,000 Afghans, citing improved security and economic conditions in Afghanistan. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem stated the country no longer met the criteria for TPS, which is intended for nations facing extraordinary conflict or disaster. The protections will officially end on July 12. Critics, including AfghanEvac, condemned the decision as political and dangerous, noting ongoing Taliban control, human rights abuses, and lack of a functioning asylum system. The move aligns with President Trump’s broader efforts to roll back immigration protections. RFE/RL Politico CBS News Washington Post

AFRICA Drones, gold, and threats: Sudan’s war raises regional tensions. Sudan’s civil war escalated after the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched suicide drone strikes on Port Sudan, the army’s stronghold, prompting mass civilian displacement. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) accused the UAE of supplying drones to the RSF, a claim the UAE denies. In response, SAF authorities in Port Sudan announced a break in ties with the UAE, a move analysts warn could cripple Sudan’s economy, given Emirati control over gold exports and key banking infrastructure. Both sides now rely heavily on drones—Turkish-made Bayraktars for the army and Chinese drones for the RSF—raising fears of deeper regional involvement and catastrophic escalation. Al Jazeera Mali’s military junta officially dissolves political parties . Mali’s transitional president, Gen. Assimi Goita, has signed a decree dissolving all political parties and banning their members from holding meetings, amid growing pro-democracy protests and a wave of activist arrests in Bamako. The move, announced on national TV by a minister on Tuesday, follows weeks of opposition demonstrations and comes after the National Transition Council approved the measure. Critics, including former Prime Minister Moussa Mara, say the decision undermines national reconciliation. Mali has been under military rule since Goita’s 2021 coup, and some political leaders now plan to challenge the decree in the Constitutional Court, arguing that it violates the Malian constitution. Associated Press Deutsche Welle Al Jazeera Reuters Tanzania detains another opposition official. Tanzanian authorities detained Amani Golugwa, a senior member of the opposition CHADEMA party, at the Dar es Salaam airport on Monday, as he was heading to a political conference in Belgium. The arrest raises concerns of a growing crackdown ahead of the October election. Police claimed Golugwa failed to follow legal travel procedures, while CHADEMA and international groups condemned the incident as politically motivated. This follows the recent arrest of CHADEMA leader Tundu Lissu, who was charged with treason after calling for electoral reforms. Lissu’s arrest and the party’s subsequent disqualification from the upcoming election have intensified fears over President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s commitment to democratic rights, despite her stated support for human rights. Reuters Deutsche Welle

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS Tech titans join Trump in Saudi Arabia seeking investments . During President Donald Trump’s state visit to Saudi Arabia, nearly three dozen top American business leaders—including CEOs from Google, OpenAI, Nvidia, Uber, BlackRock, and Elon Musk—joined him in Riyadh at the invitation of the Saudi government. The visit, marked by lavish receptions and major investment announcements, included a $600 billion Saudi commitment to invest in the U.S. and $142 billion in American arms sales. The presence of such high-profile business figures highlighted the growing economic ties between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, as well as the private sector’s eagerness to align with Trump’s administration. The trip also drew scrutiny over ethical concerns, as Trump defended accepting a $400 million jet from Qatar for future use as Air Force One. Meanwhile, tech companies announced $80 billion in joint ventures with Saudi Arabia, and new AI partnerships were launched, underscoring the region’s rising role in global tech and finance. Washington Post Politico AI is driving up battlefield losses, UN tech envoy warns . UN tech envoy Amandeep Singh Gill warned on May 13 that the use of autonomous weapons lowers the threshold for conflict, and increases the risk of greater casualties, as it distances humans from battlefield decisions. Speaking at POLITICO’s AI and Tech Summit in Brussels, he noted that this trend is already evident in current wars, citing increased drone use in Ukraine, and AI-assisted targeting by Israel in Gaza. The UN is advocating for a global agreement to regulate autonomous weapons by next year, with Secretary-General António Guterres recently stressing that life-and-death decisions must remain under human control. “We cannot delegate life-or-death decisions to machines,” he argued. Politico EU AI is helping the Pentagon go from finding targets to predicting threats . The Pentagon is expanding its use of artificial intelligence through the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency’s (NGA) Maven program, aiming to move from identifying known targets to predicting emerging threats. Initially developed in 2017 and now widely adopted across U.S. military branches, Maven analyzes vast amounts of satellite and sensor data to spot patterns and detect anomalies, such as unexpected activity at a weapons site. NGA Director Vice Adm. Frank Whitworth highlighted new AI capabilities that can reason and prioritize behaviors, enhancing early-warning systems. Complementing Maven is ASPEN, a new workflow platform managing a surge in geospatial data, and GAMBLER, a tactical AI tool for frontline units. AI integration has already reduced latency by 80%, but Whitworth warns that demand for computing power may soon exceed supply if not addressed. Defense One U.S. AI czar says curbs on AI technology exports not needed to safeguard national security . David Sacks, the White House AI and crypto czar, told a U.S.-Saudi investment event in Riyadh on Tuesday that the U.S. does not need to curtail global distribution of AI chips and technology in order to manage national security risks. Sacks recalled that the U.S. has rescinded the Biden-era “AI Diffusion” rule, noting that “(diffusion) is not a risk with a friend like Saudi Arabia.” More broadly, Sacks said there is a “great deal of misunderstanding about the diversion of GPU’s.” He added that the rule never intended to curb AI technology distribution to friends, allies and strategic partners. Reuters U.S., Saudi Arabia working on details of AI chip deal with provisions to prevent Chinese access . Sources say that the Trump administration plans to announce a deal that will expand Saudi Arabia’s access to advanced semiconductors in a move that will enhance development of data center capacity in the kingdom. The agreement reportedly would allow Saudi Arabia to purchase chips from the most advanced manufacturers, including Nvidia and AMD. According to sources, key details of the deal are still being negotiated centering on U.S. concerns over potential Chinese access to chips sent to Saudi Arabia by diversion of physical models or access to advanced AI capabilities through cloud services. A possible provision could require U.S. government control over access to data chips using American technology. Bloomberg Critical minerals agreement joins AI chip exports among possible U.S.-Gulf State deals. The Trump administration is aiming to authorize the sale of hundreds of thousands of AI chips to the United Arab Emirates’ G42 tech startup in addition to granting greater chip access to Saudi Arabia. Some of the chips would flow through a new partnership between G42 and OpenAI, while others could go directly to the UAE company. In addition, the Trump administration has approved a memorandum of understanding between a U.S. company and Saudi partners to mine and process critical minerals used in advanced manufacturing, energy and defense. According to the Washington Post, the Saudi company Grand Mines Mining LLC, will prospect for lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere for export to the U.S. Washington Post New York Times House Republicans urge federal AI legislation to override state initiatives. House Republicans are advocating for a legislative package to roll back state AI laws across the U.S. and block states from passing new ones for the next decade. The AI provisions are part of the House reconciliation bill and would empower the federal government as the sole AI regulator for U.S. tech firms. The bill will be debated in a markup that begins Tuesday afternoon and could stretch into Wednesday or longer. The bill is part of a Republican push to propel U.S. AI development in competition with Chinese rivals. More than 30 states passed laws or resolutions relating to AI in 2024 to address concerns related to deep fakes, discriminatory uses of AI in hiring, and creating “digital replicas” of people without permission. Washington Post Mandiant founder says AI-agent attacks initiated by cybercriminals only a year away . Cyber entrepreneur Kevin Mandia predicted in an interview with Axios at the RSA Conference that the world is only a year away from an AI-agent-enabled cyberattack. He said the source of the attack probably will not be clearly attributed to AI, noting “everybody’s going to look at that, wonder how that got done, and it’s probably AI behind it.” He speculated that cybercriminals will be behind initial AI agent attacks with state actors observing the activity before joining in. Mandia said major AI models, such as OpenAI’s, are not likely be used, adding “it’s going to come from some model that’s somewhere out there that’s less controlled.” Axios Google announces ‘AI Futures Fund’ offering use of AI assets to fuel startup development . Google has launched the AI Futures Fund, an initiative to invest in startups using the latest AI tools from Google DeepMind, the company’s AI R&D lab. The fund will support startups from seed to late stage, offering support that includes early access to Google AI models from DeepMind, the ability to work with Google experts from DeepMind and Google Labs, and Google Cloud credits. Some startups may also receive direct Google investments from Google. Startups can apply beginning May 12. The program already has produced some case studies, including from Viggle, a meme-making platform, and the Toonsutra webtoon app. TechCrunch Chinese navy employs AI-assisted system in degaussing method to boost warship survivability . The Chinese navy has successfully used AI in an exercise for warship degaussing, known as magnetic immunization, increasing the process efficiency by 60 percent. The degaussing exercise took place at a PLA Northern Theatre Command naval base, marking the first operational deployment of an AI-assisted decision-making system and improved performance that far exceeded manual methods. The drill used real-time data from magnetic detectors and environmental sensors, automatically adjusting electric currents in degaussing coils based on ocean temperature, vessel speed, and other variables. A PLA Navy commander described degaussing as “vital to a warship’s survivability on a modern battlefield.” South China Morning Post German AI company Helsing announces swarming underwater surveillance drones. Germany-based defense company Helsing has launched an AI-powered underwater drone surveillance system designed to detect enemy submarines and ships for extended periods at sea. The system centers on its AI tool, Lura, which analyzes acoustic data from SG-1 Fathom drones. Lura can identify undersea threats, including submarines and ships, with high accuracy, even distinguishing between similar vessels, and does so much faster than human analysts. The Fathom drones are capable of operating in swarms and can patrol underwater environments for up to three months. Helsing showcased the system at Portsmouth Naval Base last week, and aims to deploy it within the year, potentially in the North and Baltic Seas, where NATO is securing key maritime infrastructure. NATO is also developing similar AI tools for maritime intelligence. Helsing’s co-CEO says the technology will enhance underwater visibility and strengthen European defense capabilities. Defense News The Next Web Helsing Financial Times Experimental satellite-inspection spacecraft planned for 2026 launch to counter Chinese Russian activities . A group of former U.S. Space Force and Air Force officers in 2022 founded True Anomaly, a space operations firm with the goal of addressing limitations in existing technologies for monitoring near-earth space. Their solution is a 700-kg spacecraft nicknamed Jackal that features 20 thrusters and an oversized fuel tank to enable patrols of an assigned region of space. True Anomaly envisions dozens of Jackals in orbit around Earth and in cislunar space to ensure what Steve Kitay, a True Anomaly executive, calls “space superiority.” The Jackal’s mission, Kitay said, is to inspect suspicious satellites, a monitoring capability that is far more precise than ground-based radar or telescopes. In 2024, True Anomaly launched three demo satellites into low Earth orbit and plans to deploy its first experimental Jackal spacecraft into geostationary and cislunar orbits n 2026. IEEE Spectrum North Korean hackers probe Ukrainian government entities for ‘strategic intelligence’ . North Korean state-backed hackers tracked as TA406 are conducting cyber espionage operations against Ukrainian government entities. According to the Proofpoint cybersecurity firm, the campaign directed at Ukrainian government organizations indicates that North Korea wants to “better understand the appetite to continue fighting against the Russian invasion” and “the medium-term outlook of the conflict.” Researchers say the group probably is seeking intelligence to assess risks to North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine and to determine if Russia will require further military support. In contrast with Russian hackers, who seek tactical intelligence, TA406’s Ukrainian operations focus on political intelligence and strategic analysis of the ongoing war. The Record North Korean scammers land jobs in U.S. with help from Chinese companies . North Korean IT workers are creating front companies in China to deceive Western firms into hiring them, according to a new report by Strider Technologies. These workers aim to earn money and gather intelligence to support Pyongyang’s missile program. The report identifies 35 China-based firms linked to the scheme, many believed to be affiliated with a U.S.-sanctioned company. Some of these businesses, including Dandong Deyun Trading and Guangzhou Aiyixi Trading, are suspected of funneling money to North Korea. Major companies like Google and cybersecurity vendors have reported being targeted, with some even unknowingly hiring these workers. The problem remains largely unspoken due to corporate fears of embarrassment or legal consequences. Experts warn that remote hiring practices make it easier for fraud to go undetected. In response, Strider will release a tool to help detect falsified resumes, a common tactic used by North Korean operatives in job applications. Axios Cybersecurity Drive Microsoft to lay off 3% of workforce . Microsoft is laying off about 7,000 employees, or 3% of its workforce, as it cuts costs while investing heavily in artificial intelligence, according to CNBC. The layoffs, spanning all levels and regions, are the company’s largest since 2023, when it cut 10,000 jobs. Unlike January’s smaller, performance-based layoffs, these cuts aim to streamline management. Microsoft, which ended June 2024 with 228,000 employees, is following a broader trend in Big Tech, where companies like Google are also trimming staff to focus resources on AI. The move comes despite strong recent earnings, particularly in cloud computing, which reassured investors amid economic uncertainty. CNBC Reuters Associated Press CBS News

Baba Vanga’s chilling India-Pakistan prediction comes true

A harrowing prediction about the “downfall of humanity,” made by Bulgarian mystic, Baba Vanga, seems to be growing more likely after India launched military operation against Pakistan today

People are worried that Baba Vanga’s most chilling prediction might be coming true (Image: Wikipedia )

Once again, Babe Vanga, the Bulgarian mystic famed for her predictions, seems to have accurately predicted a major global event.

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One stark warning issued by the blind-woman decades ago has resurfaced. Among her most significant predictions were the tragic events of 9/11 and the Covid Pandemic. Before her death, she predicted that in the year 2025, Europe would experience a war that would devastate the continent’s population.

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Details on the countries involved were vague, but she described the war as the beginning of the “downfall of humanity.” Today, India launched a major military operation against Pakistan, following a recent escalation of tensions between the two neighbors.

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Donald Trump humiliated over Star Wars White House post as fans point out hilarious error READ MORE:

The missile strikes began early on Wednesday morning, targeting “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan and Pakistan administered-Kashmir, according to India. Pakistan has denied the claim, saying the attack largely harmed civilians.

A recent deadly rampage by a gunman, which resulted in the death of 26 people, has put further strain on relations between the two countries. Those murdered in the incident were primarily Indian tourists.

India fires missiles at Pakistan and disputed Kashmir region as WW3 fears grow. (Image: X )

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It seems Pakistan has promptly retaliated to the attack, as The Guardian reported this evening that Pakistan’s security sources said it shot down two Indian jets in retaliation for the Indian strikes.

The Guardian reported that Pakistani and Indian troops are also exchanging fire across border.

The Pakistani Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, took to X after the missile attack, calling the attacks “cowardly.”

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“Pakistan has every right to respond forcefully to this act of war imposed by India, and a forceful response is being given,” he said, adding that the “entire nation” stands with Pakistan’s armed forces on “how to deal with the enemy”.

Though the conflict has not taken place in Europe, many people feel that Baba Vanga’s chilling prediction may still be on the way. She already predicted the natural disaster in Myanmar this year, where a 7.7 magnitude earthquake caused widespread devastation.

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