
Near Antarctica, Saltier Seas Mean Less Ice, Study Finds
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Near Antarctica, Saltier Seas Mean Less Ice, Study Finds – The New York Times
Briny warm water is mixing on the surface of the ocean, making sea ice melt faster, a new study found.
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Southern Ocean shows troubling signs of a growing climate emergency
The Southern Ocean has undergone one of the most dramatic environmental shifts observed anywhere on Earth. Scientists have tracked an unexpected and rapid rise in surface salinity across the waters surrounding Antarctica, paired with a steep and ongoing decline in sea ice. This sudden shift challenges earlier climate predictions and highlights the delicate balance between ocean salinity, heat, and ice. Since the shift began, Antarctica has lost sea ice equal to the size of Greenland. In late 2016, a record-low sea ice extent marked the beginning of a new pattern. With less ice, more sunlight is absorbed by the ocean, leading to warmer waters and stronger storms. The change could signal a shift into a permanently saltier, low-ice state. It could permanently reshape the Southern Ocean—and with it, the planet. It’s a dangerous feedback loop: less ice leads to more heat, which leads to even less ice. The loss of sea ice doesn’t only impact penguins or polar habitats—it also plays a major role in the planet’s climate system.
A Sudden Reversal After Decades of Freshening
For over three decades, the surface waters south of 50 degrees latitude had been freshening. This trend was widely expected in a warming climate. Freshening strengthened the ocean’s vertical layering, or stratification, by keeping the colder, fresher surface water separate from warmer, saltier deep water. This barrier slowed the upward movement of heat, helping to expand sea ice and keeping the deep ocean’s warmth locked away.
But this stable pattern didn’t last. Since 2015, satellite data has revealed an abrupt and striking reversal. The ocean’s surface is now becoming saltier. With higher salinity, the stratification has weakened. That means warmer water from the deep can now rise more easily, melting sea ice from below and limiting its ability to regrow.
The Southern Ocean is the massive body of water that surrounds Antarctica. (CREDIT: National Geographic)
According to Dr. Alessandro Silvano, the lead author of the study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, “Saltier surface water allows deep ocean heat to rise more easily, melting sea ice from below. It’s a dangerous feedback loop: less ice leads to more heat, which leads to even less ice.”
Record Sea Ice Loss and Rare Ocean Openings
Since the shift began, Antarctica has lost sea ice equal to the size of Greenland. In late 2016, a record-low sea ice extent marked the beginning of a new pattern. Multiple new record lows have followed in both summer and winter, and sea ice has yet to recover to its earlier levels.
This change also led to the return of a rare event not seen in decades. Large openings in the sea ice—called polynyas—have reappeared in the Weddell Sea over Maud Rise. One such opening in 2016 and 2017 stretched nearly four times the size of Wales. The last time a polynya of this scale emerged in that region was back in the 1970s.
These open-ocean polynyas form when stratification weakens enough to allow vertical mixing. As the upper ocean loses its fresh layer, warmer water can reach the surface, melting ice and preventing it from forming. Their reappearance shows how deeply the Southern Ocean system is changing.
Dr. Silvano points out that this change could signal a shift into a permanently saltier, low-ice state. “The return of the Maud Rise polynya signals just how unusual the current conditions are. If this salty, low-ice state continues, it could permanently reshape the Southern Ocean—and with it, the planet.”
Why This Matters Far Beyond Antarctica
The loss of sea ice doesn’t only impact penguins or polar habitats—it also plays a major role in the planet’s climate system. Sea ice reflects sunlight, helping keep the planet cool. With less ice, more sunlight is absorbed by the ocean, leading to warmer waters and stronger storms. These changes are already being felt worldwide.
The Southern Ocean. (CREDIT: University of Southampton)
“While scientists expected that human-driven climate change would eventually lead to Antarctic sea ice decline, the timing and nature of this shift remained uncertain,” says Aditya Narayanan, a postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Southampton and co-author of the study. “Previous projections emphasized enhanced surface freshening and stronger ocean stratification, which could have supported sustained sea ice cover. Instead, a rapid reduction in sea ice—an important reflector of solar radiation—has occurred, potentially accelerating global warming.”
This mismatch between predictions and observations shows how complex the ocean-ice system truly is. Factors like wind, air temperature, and ocean currents all interact in ways scientists are still working to understand. However, this study suggests ocean salinity may be a more important piece of the puzzle than previously thought.
One of the most significant parts of the research is how the changes were detected. Satellites operated by the European Space Agency now allow scientists to monitor salinity changes across the Southern Ocean in real time. These measurements are enhanced by robotic floats that dive up and down through the water column, collecting detailed data on temperature and salinity from the surface to deep below.
Satellite-derived maps of February SSS anomaly. Summer values are shown at the minimum sea ice cover, when satellite retrieval can capture surface properties over most of the polar Southern Ocean. (CREDIT: PNAS)
This combination of tools gives researchers the clearest view yet of how ocean layers are shifting—and how these shifts impact sea ice.
Professor Alberto Naveira Garabato, another co-author and Regius Professor of Ocean Sciences at the University of Southampton, emphasized the need for this kind of monitoring: “The new findings suggest that our current understanding may be insufficient to accurately predict future changes. It makes the need for continuous satellite and in-situ monitoring all the more pressing, so we can better understand the drivers of recent and future shifts in the ice-ocean system.”
A Critical Transition or Just the Beginning?
Some scientists now believe the Southern Ocean may be going through a critical transition. This term comes from dynamical systems theory and describes when a system moves abruptly into a new and different state. Studies have found increasing consistency and persistence in sea ice anomalies—patterns that don’t bounce back quickly or randomly anymore, but instead follow a more connected, long-term trend.
(B) Argo-derived potential temperature anomaly (°C) in the top 500 m of the water column. The vertical dashed black line marks winter 2015, when sea ice retreat began. (C) Same as (B), but for salinity. (CREDIT: PNAS)
That raises new questions: Has the Southern Ocean passed a tipping point? Or is there still a chance the system could return to its earlier, more stable state?
Right now, the physical processes behind this transformation are not fully understood. While atmospheric changes like shifting winds and warmer air play a role, they don’t fully explain the sudden and sustained sea ice retreat. This underscores the importance of oceanic processes, including salinity-driven mixing and feedback loops between water layers and ice cover.
A Call to Action for the Planet
What’s happening in the Southern Ocean won’t stay there. As the sea ice vanishes, the effects ripple outward. Climate patterns shift. Ocean temperatures rise. Wildlife struggles to adapt. The findings call attention to the fragile and fast-changing nature of the Earth’s climate system—and to the need for constant, detailed observation.
Sea ice in the Southern Ocean. (CREDIT: University of Southampton)
For decades, models and projections have helped shape climate policy and public awareness. But this case shows that nature may not always follow the expected path. Real-time satellite data, along with underwater sensors, are now essential tools for staying ahead of these fast-moving changes.
Without a full grasp of what drives ocean and ice interactions, our predictions about the future may fall short. As these systems shift more rapidly than expected, scientists stress the need for urgent, ongoing monitoring—not just for Antarctica’s sake, but for the planet as a whole.
Note: The article above provided above by The Brighter Side of News.
‘Completely unexpected’: Antarctic sea ice may be in terminal decline due to rising Southern Ocean salinity
Since 2015, the frozen continent has lost sea ice similar to the size of Greenland. That ice hasn’t returned, marking the largest global environmental change during the past decade. Less sea ice means less habitat for penguins and other ice-dwelling species. More of the heat stored in the ocean is released into the atmosphere when ice melts, increasing the number and intensity of storms. This brings heatwaves on land and melts even more of the Antarctic ice sheet, which raises sea levels globally. We may have passed a tipping point and entered a new state defined by persistent sea ice decline, sustained by a newly discovered feedback loop. If we don’t update our scientific models, we could have a risk of being caught off guard by changes in climate models. The loss of Antarctic sea ice has global consequences. Sea ice acts like a giant mirror reflecting sunlight back into space. Without it, more energy stays in the Earth system, speeding up global warming, intensifying storms and driving sea level rise in coastal cities worldwide.
This finding caught us off guard – melting ice typically makes the ocean fresher. But new satellite data shows the opposite is happening, and that’s a big problem. Saltier water at the ocean surface behaves differently than fresher seawater by drawing up heat from the deep ocean and making it harder for sea ice to regrow.
The loss of Antarctic sea ice has global consequences. Less sea ice means less habitat for penguins and other ice-dwelling species. More of the heat stored in the ocean is released into the atmosphere when ice melts, increasing the number and intensity of storms and accelerating global warming. This brings heatwaves on land and melts even more of the Antarctic ice sheet, which raises sea levels globally.
Our new study has revealed that the Southern Ocean is changing, but in a different way to what we expected. We may have passed a tipping point and entered a new state defined by persistent sea ice decline, sustained by a newly discovered feedback loop.
Nasa
A surprising discovery
Monitoring the Southern Ocean is no small task. It’s one of the most remote and stormy places on Earth, and is covered in darkness for several months a year. Thanks to new European Space Agency satellites and underwater robots which stay below the ocean surface measuring temperature and salinity, we can now observe what is happening in real time.
Our team at the University of Southampton worked with colleagues at the Barcelona Expert Centre and the European Space Agency to develop new algorithms to track ocean surface conditions in polar regions from satellites. By combining satellite observations with data from underwater robots, we built a 15-year picture of changes in ocean salinity, temperature and sea ice.
What we found was astonishing. Around 2015, surface salinity in the Southern Ocean began rising sharply – just as sea ice extent started to crash. This reversal was completely unexpected. For decades, the surface had been getting fresher and colder, helping sea ice expand.
NOAA Climate.gov/National Snow and Ice Data Center
To understand why this matters, it helps to think of the Southern Ocean as a series of layers. Normally, the cold, fresh surface water sits on top of warmer, saltier water deep below. This layering (or stratification, as scientists call it) traps heat in the ocean depths, keeping surface waters cool and helping sea ice to form.
Saltier water is denser and therefore heavier. So, when surface waters become saltier, they sink more readily, stirring the ocean’s layers and allowing heat from the deep to rise. This upward heat flux can melt sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing the cycle.
A powerful feedback loop is created: more salinity brings more heat to the surface, which melts more ice, which then allows more heat to be absorbed from the Sun. My colleagues and I saw these processes first hand in 2016-2017 with the return of the Maud Rise polynya, which is a gaping hole in the sea ice that is nearly four times the size of Wales and last appeared in the 1970s.
What happens in Antarctica doesn’t stay there
Losing Antarctic sea ice is a planetary problem. Sea ice acts like a giant mirror reflecting sunlight back into space. Without it, more energy stays in the Earth system, speeding up global warming, intensifying storms and driving sea level rise in coastal cities worldwide.
Wildlife also suffers. Emperor penguins rely on sea ice to breed and raise their chicks. Tiny krill – shrimp-like crustaceans which form the foundation of the Antarctic food chain as food for whales and seals – feed on algae that grow beneath the ice. Without that ice, entire ecosystems start to unravel.
What’s happening at the bottom of the world is rippling outward, reshaping weather systems, ocean currents and life on land and sea.
University of Southampton
Antarctica is no longer the stable, frozen continent we once believed it to be. It is changing rapidly, and in ways that current climate models didn’t foresee. Until recently, those models assumed a warming world would increase precipitation and ice-melting, freshening surface waters and helping keep Antarctic sea ice relatively stable. That assumption no longer holds.
Our findings show that the salinity of surface water is rising, the ocean’s layered structure is breaking down and sea ice is declining faster than expected. If we don’t update our scientific models, we risk being caught off guard by changes we could have prepared for. Indeed, the ultimate driver of the 2015 salinity increase remains uncertain, underscoring the need for scientists to revise their perspective on the Antarctic system and highlighting the urgency of further research.
We need to keep watching, yet ongoing satellite and ocean monitoring is threatened by funding cuts. This research offers us an early warning signal, a planetary thermometer and a strategic tool for tracking a rapidly shifting climate. Without accurate, continuous data, it will be impossible to adapt to the changes in store.
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Saltier, hotter & fast losing ice: Dramatic shift for Southern Ocean
In the decade since 2015, Antarctica has lost sea ice equal to the size of Greenland – marking the largest environmental shift seen anywhere on Earth in recent history. The Southern Ocean is also getting saltier – an unexpected change now thought to only be making the problem worse. Dr Alessandro Silvano from the University of Southampton, who led the research, said: “Saltier surface waters allows deep ocean heat to rise more easily, melting sea ice from below. It’s a dangerous feedback loop: less ice leads to more heat, which leads to even less ice.”
In the decade since 2015, Antarctica has lost sea ice equal to the size of Greenland – marking the largest environmental shift seen anywhere on Earth in recent history. The Southern Ocean is also getting saltier – an unexpected change now thought to only be making the problem worse.
For decades, the ocean’s surface was freshening (becoming less salty), helping sea ice to grow. Now, scientists say this trend has sharply reversed.
Using European satellite data, research led by the University of Southampton has discovered a sudden rise in surface salinity south of 50° latitude. This has coincided with a dramatic loss of sea ice around Antarctica and the re-emergence of the Maud Rise polynya in the Weddell Sea – a huge hole in the sea ice nearly four times the size of Wales. one which hadn’t occurred since the 1970s.
The findings have been published today – June 30th – in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Dr Alessandro Silvano from the University of Southampton, who led the research, said: “Saltier surface waters allows deep ocean heat to rise more easily, melting sea ice from below. It’s a dangerous feedback loop: less ice leads to more heat, which leads to even less ice.
“The return of the Maud Rise polynya signals just how unusual the current conditions are. If this salty, low-ice state continues, it could permanently reshape the Southern Ocean – and with it, the planet. The effects are already global: stronger storms, warmer oceans, and shrinking habitats for penguins and other iconic Antarctic wildlife.”
Antarctica has its own ‘shield’ against warm water – but this could now be under threat
A little-known ocean current surrounds Antarctica, shielding it from warm water further north. Melting ice is disrupting this current, putting the continent’s last line of defence at risk. We found meltwater from Antarctica is speeding up the current, known as the Antarctic Slope Current. And it’s set to become even faster by mid-century. A faster current could be more unstable. This means eddies of warm water could eat away at Antarctica’s ice. Humanity must act now to preserve this natural phenomena that helps Antarctica’‘s ice shelves remain intact.’ – Ellie Ong, Australian Antarctic Division. The Conversation is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license: http://www.theconversation.com/article/the-converse-says-humanity-must-act-fast-to-preserve-this-natural-phenomenon-that-protects-Antarctica-from-warm-water-and-sea-level-rise.
We found meltwater from Antarctica is speeding up the current, known as the Antarctic Slope Current. And it’s set to become even faster by mid-century.
A faster current could be more unstable. This means eddies of warm water could eat away at Antarctica’s ice, posing a major concern for the stability of the Earth’s climate system.
Faster ice-melt means faster sea-level rise. Humanity must act now to preserve this natural phenomena that helps Antarctica’s ice shelves remain intact.
The Antarctic Slope Current moves ocean water westward over the continental slope, close to the coast. Credit: Ellie Ong
Melting of Antarctic ice has global consequences
Antarctica is melting as the world warms. This causes sea levels to rise. Even just a few centimetres of sea-level rise can double the chance of flooding in vulnerable coastal regions.
Previous research has shown meltwater is also slowing the global network of deep ocean currents. These currents transport water, heat and nutrients around the planet, so a global slow-down has huge ramifications.
It’s therefore crucial to reduce further loss of Antarctic ice, to stabilise our global climate system.
The Antarctic Slope Current moves ocean water westward over the continental slope, close to the coast. It acts as a barrier, preventing warm waters from further north from reaching the ice.
In this way, the current provides an important line of defence keeping warmer water at bay. It doesn’t stop Antarctica from melting, because warming air temperatures still cause this. But it slows the process. However, our research shows this defence is under threat.
Ships cruising around Antarctica often encounter the Antarctic Slope Current. Pete Harmsen/Australian Antarctic Division (AAD)
What we did
We wanted to find out how the Antarctic Slope Current will respond to changes in wind, heat, and meltwater as the climate changes. We did this using high-resolution ocean-sea ice models.
The meltwater makes the ocean around Antarctica less salty. This makes the waters closer to the coast less dense, changing the structure of the Antarctic Slope Current and speeding it up.
The models predicted a 14% increase in the speed of the current over the past 25 years and a 49% increase over the next 25 years.
But meltwater from Antarctic ice has another effect too. We found the added water also slows down the movement of dense, salty coastal water in “waterfalls” running off the Antarctic coast that feeds into the global overturning current network.
When these waterfalls of dense water slow down, warmer waters are able to flow closer to the Antarctic continent.
Together, these changes compound and cause the Antarctic Slope Current to speed up even more.
A complex story
It might be assumed the changes we modelled would be a good thing for Antarctica. That’s because the stronger the Antarctic Slope Current, the stronger the barrier between Antarctica and the warm waters to the north.
But there’s more to the story. When ocean currents flow faster, they become more turbulent –generating vigorous eddies or whirlpools.
You can see this effect if you rapidly run your hand through a bathtub of water. Watch for the dynamic, circular whirlpools in your hand’s wake.
Ocean eddies are also becoming more vigorous under climate change.
Around Antarctica, whirlpools or eddies can move large amounts of warm water towards the poles. This can make melting worse.
So although a stronger current might be expected to act as a better shield for Antarctica, the extra eddies in its wake can have the opposing effect. These eddies can amplify the transport of heat towards Antarctica, increasing melting.
Eddies/whirlpools in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica.
Why this matters
No matter how uncertain Antarctica’s future may be, one thing is clear: this frozen frontier is crucial to the stability of our global climate.
The Antarctic Slope Current was once a steadfast guardian of the icy continent. But now the current is being transformed by the very ice it protects.
Humanity must act fast to preserve the current, by cutting carbon emissions. When it comes to Antarctica, this action isn’t optional — it’s the only way to hold the line.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license:
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/30/climate/antarctic-sea-ice-salinity.html