Kerala’s Nilambur electing Congress candidate Aryadan Shoukath in the June 19 bypoll serves as a warning for chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan, whose government heads for assembly elections next year with a two-term anti-incumbency.

Shoukath wrested Nilambur, located in Malappuram district, from the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) by a convincing margin of around 11,360 votes. The previous MLA from the seat, P.V. Anvar, who had challenged the Vijayan government by contesting as an Independent, received over 19,000 votes.

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Anvar had resigned as MLA in January after facing the heat for alleging that additional DGP (director general of police) M.R. Ajithkumar was involved in gold smuggling. Ajithkumar is widely considered as an officer enjoying the trust of the Vijayan government.

The CPI(M) had fielded M. Swaraj, a youth leader with clean image. As runner-up, he polled around 66,660 votes.

The loss of Nilambur reduces the LDF’s strength in the legislative assembly to 98, but more importantly, it gives the Congress-led Opposition UDF (United Democratic Front) a psychological advantage in the run-up to the state polls.

“We won Nilambur by a convincing margin. I thank the people for supporting me against a corrupt government that had sponsored wrongful practices to defeat me,” Shoukath told INDIA TODAY.

The Congress is in a jubilant mood. The counting of votes on June 23 revealed the UDF had maintained lead in Nilambur municipality, governed by the CPI(M), and six other panchayats, except Kurulayi. The LDF candidate trailed in his home ground of Pothukallu by 425 votes. Even in Nilambur municipality, the performance of Swaraj was disappointing.

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Nilambur used to be a Congress stronghold, with Shoukath’s father Aryadan Muhammed holding the seat uninterrupted for almost 30 years since 1987. He had also held the seat from 1977 to 1980. Anvar snatched the seat for the LDF in 2016 and retained it in 2021.

To many locals, Shoukath’s victory indicates a build-up against the Vijayan government. “The Nilambur bypoll verdict should be an eye-opener for the chief minister, who campaigned in the constituency for five days and showcased his governance. His campaign attracted huge crowds, but not the votes,” said Faizal Ahmed, a businessman from Nilambur.

Clearly, the LDF had underestimated the Anvar factor and failed to neutralise his clout among their cadre. A win under its belt, the UDF will now be going into the local body polls scheduled in December with added confidence. “We had taken a position that the Pinarayi Vijayan government must go, and the people voted for us. We will not allow the government to continue with its undemocratic activities,” said the Congress’s V.D. Satheesan, who is leader of the Opposition.

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