On Monday, Israel ordered Iranians to evacuate from the northern part of the capital, Tehran, days after launching its deadly strikes across Iran. The same day, it bombed the headquarters of the state TV channel IRIB during a live broadcast.

Experts say these moves form part of Israel’s “psychological warfare” against Iranians, many of whom have already left the capital amid a continuing barrage of Israeli attacks, which have killed more than 220 people in five days.

Israeli spokesperson Avichay Adraee issued an “urgent warning” on X on Monday, calling for an evacuation order for District 3, a leafy, affluent area in northern Tehran where many foreign embassies are located.

It came attached with a 3D map and a warning to residents that their presence there “endangers” their lives; a format strikingly similar to his warnings issued throughout Israel’s war on Gaza and its bombardment of Lebanon.

Later, another evacuation order came from Israel’s closest ally, the United States. “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” US President Donald Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Monday.

But can a whole city – home to nearly 10 million people – simply pack up and leave? Let’s break it down for you:

How possible is it for all of Tehran’s residents to evacuate?

It would be difficult for all its residents to leave in a timeframe that would ensure their safety, according to Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Tehran, Maziar Motamedi.

One reason is that Iran’s capital has a large population of roughly 10 million, which is more people than in London or New York.

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If you expand that area to the metropolitan area, which includes surrounding suburbs and towns, its population stands at approximately 14-15 million.

Heavy traffic congestion is already common in Tehran, especially during rush hour or public holidays, but many of the roads on Tuesday were at a standstill with traffic jams throughout the city as residents attempted to evacuate.

The traffic jams are reportedly worsening as the day progresses.

Tehran is also surrounded by mountainous terrain, and exit routes are limited to fewer than a dozen arteries that lead out of the city.

Al Jazeera’s Dorsa Jabbari spoke to some residents who had been attempting to leave Tehran, noting that a trip that usually takes seven to eight hours to reach an area by the Caspian Sea can now take between 18 and 24 hours to complete, due to traffic.

It takes weeks if not months to evacuate Tehran. pic.twitter.com/yiqM3ND6az — Omid Memarian (@Omid_M) June 16, 2025

Are there any bomb shelters in Tehran?

No.

“There are no bomb shelters in Iran, there never have been, so people really don’t have anywhere to go”, Al Jazeera’s Jabbari explained.

“This was an unthinkable situation for most Iranians. They haven’t seen bombs dropping on Tehran since the Iran-Iraq War, and that ended 37 years ago,” she said.

A resident of the Zafaraniyeh neighbourhood in northern Tehran told Al Jazeera that officials had suggested that metro stations and some schools in the city could be prepared to accommodate people seeking shelter.

However, these structures were not designed to withstand the type of bombardment that Israel has been striking the capital with.

What is in District 3?

The area that the Israeli military has issued evacuation orders for is home to roughly 330,000 people and the sprawling headquarters of the Iranian state broadcaster IRIB, which Israel bombed on Monday after Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz said it was “on its way to disappear”.

It is also home to the busy Nelson Mandela Boulevard, which experiences regular traffic jams and is home to several foreign embassies.

The lush expanse of Mellat Park, the Enghelab Sports Complex with its popular outdoor swimming facilities, several hospitals and the sprawling Tehran International Exhibition Centre are also situated in the area.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has its Sarallah headquarters in the area, as do the police.

Al Jazeera’s Motamedi said several highways run through or along the periphery of the area marked in Israel’s evacuation orders, putting civilians using those roads at risk.

However, he said, wherever residents go, they have been at risk from the start with Israel’s bombs striking whenever and wherever they want.

Have many Tehran residents have already left?

Yes.

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Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi, reporting from Tehran, said a significant portion of the population has chosen to leave the city in response to the explosions and repeated warning messages by Israel.

He said there is a strong sense of anxiety and fear among residents, but there is also a distinct feeling of solidarity among those who remain in the capital.

He said when he spoke to people, particularly those living in the neighbourhoods that were targeted, there was a deep sense of anger.

Residents say they have no connection to the nuclear programme or military facilities, and that they are just citizens whose lives are now being directly affected by these events, he reported from the capital.

Both of my parents fled Iran so this is personal. Trump’s words are callous and horrifying. Tehran is a massive city of nearly 10 million. Iranian people deserve freedom but Trump’s threat of murdering innocent civilians, a mass casualty event, or another endless war is not the… pic.twitter.com/lQLBBYNaaR — Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari (@RepYassAnsari) June 16, 2025

Where can residents evacuate to?

Trump has made it sound simple, but relocating large numbers of people to other parts of the country is not straightforward.

Many residents have family elsewhere in the country or are opting to stay in hotels.

However, Israel has targeted locations across the country, which means there is no safe place to head to.

Motamedi said that many people may look to head north of Tehran to less-targeted areas such as Rasht, Nur, Chalus, Bandar Anzali and Mahmudabad.

These areas are popular with holidaymakers, meaning that hotels and temporary accommodation may be available.

Others say they fear that an influx of displaced people could lead to shortages in those areas, so they are uncertain of where they could evacuate to.

Have we seen these types of evacuation orders before?

Yes.

Since Israel began its war on Gaza in October 2023, it has issued numerous evacuation orders similar to the ones issued for District 3 on Monday.

It has also issued the same type of evacuation order when it strikes in locations in Lebanon.

Jabbari said that although these strategies are similar, Iran has an entirely different geography and is also a sovereign state, so it is a war “on a much larger scale”.

What Israel is using is something called the Dahiyeh Doctrine, which is a strategy developed in 2006 when it was at war with Hezbollah, she said.

This strategy is when Israel uses excessive force to destroy areas in densely populated civilian neighbourhoods, with the pretext that it is attacking military targets, Jabbari explained.

Israel’s goal, she said, was to instil fear and panic, and force people to abandon their support for their political leadership.

Palestinians in Gaza cannot leave the besieged enclave, as all borders and boundaries are closed, but Trump has still suggested relocating its entire population and to “clean out that whole thing”.

The intensifying conflict has heightened fears of a protracted all-out war and widespread instability in the region.

Iran has launched a new wave of ballistic missiles against Israel soon after loud explosions were heard in its capital Tehran, as the two countries continue to trade heavy fire for a third consecutive day and as US President Donald Trump hints both at peace coming “soon” and at the possibility of the United States joining the conflict.

The Iranian Health Ministry said early Monday that at least 224 people have been killed, 90 percent of them civilians, and 1,481 wounded since Israel attacked Iran.

In three attacks, Israel killed 70 women and children while another 10 children have yet to be recovered from under the rubble in Tehran, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said. Israel “is trying to promote the notion that its attacks are precise and do not target residential areas, which is not true,” he said, slamming the notion of “surgical strikes” as Israeli propaganda.

Since the start of the conflict at least 13 people have been killed and 380 have been wounded in Israel.

In the latest salvo on Sunday evening, an Iranian missile lit up the sky above the Israeli port city of Haifa soon after Iran’s armed forces told residents of Israel to leave the vicinity for their safety.

Israel’s National Emergency Service reported at least 15 people injured in Haifa. Reuters news agency reported projectiles landing in Haifa, with explosions heard on impact. And Israeli Army Radio also said a building was hit in the eastern part of Tel Aviv.

The Iranian attack came as residents in Tehran reported earlier on Sunday that there were shuddering blasts in different areas in the heart of the city. Reports say missiles struck in Niavaran and Tajrish, in the capital’s north, and around the Valiasr and Hafte Tir squares in the city centre. According to the semi-official Tasnim news agency, the intelligence chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Mohammad Kazemi, and his deputy were killed in the attacks.

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Other cities attacked by Israel included Shiraz and Isfahan, where a military base of the Defence Ministry was hit. The Israeli army said it struck an aerial refuelling aircraft at Mashhad Airport in eastern Iran, describing it as its longest-range attack since launching operations against Iran last week.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh said Israel also launched a “deliberate and ruthless strike” on one of the buildings of Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The criminal regime of Israel launched a deliberate and ruthless strike on one of the buildings of Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, located directly across from the Institute for Political and International Studies. Several civilians were injured in the attack, including a… pic.twitter.com/DLxlmvuvZe — Saeed Khatibzadeh | سعید خطیب‌زاده (@SKhatibzadeh) June 15, 2025

Early Monday, the Israeli military said it launched a series of air strikes targeting what it claims are missile sites in central Iran.

Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi said, “Iran has not experienced a war to this extent since the Iran-Iraq War ended in 1988. There were similar Israeli strikes last year, of course, but nothing compared to what’s been happening since Friday.”

“The government said earlier today that metro stations, schools and mosques are going to be ready to host people. But parts of these facilities, including mosques and schools, do not seem safe enough to be used as a sort of shelter,” he said.

Earlier Sunday in Israel, rescue workers were searching for survivors in the rubble from the previous night’s wave of Iranian strikes. The hardest hit area was the town of Bat Yam, where more than 60 buildings were damaged. “Iran will pay a heavy price for the murder of civilians, women and children,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said from a balcony overlooking blown-out apartments in Bat Yam, a city just south of Tel Aviv.

Overnight, Iran struck the port city of Haifa and neighbouring Tamra, where at least four women were killed.

Al Jazeera’s Nour Odeh, reporting from Amman, Jordan, said, “The damage from Iranian attacks is certainly extensive and unprecedented. This is the first time that Israel has confronted a state with a formidable army in the region, certainly the first time since 1973 [against Egypt]”.

Israel launched its operation with a surprise attack on Friday that killed several members of the Iranian military’s top echelon, killed several nuclear scientists, and damaged the country’s nuclear sites. Since then, Israel’s attacks have been broadening in their scope, hitting residential areas and Iran’s civilian and energy sectors and raising the stakes for the global economy and the functioning of the Iranian state.

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Diplomacy

As both parties continue to pound each other with strikes, hopes for a diplomatic solution seem distant for now, though they will no doubt be high on the agenda of the Group of Seven summit beginning Monday in Canada.

Speaking at a press conference in Tehran on Sunday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran does not seek to expand the conflict to neighbouring countries unless forced to.

Araghchi reaffirmed Iran’s opposition to nuclear weapons but defended its right to peaceful nuclear development. He said Iran had been ready to offer assurances in the now-cancelled sixth round of US talks, which could have led to an agreement, though Israel derailed the diplomatic progress.

The US and Iran have held five rounds of talks since April to try to find a path to a new nuclear deal that would replace a 2015 accord that Trump abandoned during his first term in office.

Araghchi also claimed Israel’s attacks on his country could not have materialised without the agreement and support of the US.

“We have well-documented and solid evidence of the support provided by American forces in the region and their bases for the military attacks of the Zionist regime,” he said.

Araghchi said Trump has publicly and explicitly confirmed he knew about the attacks, that they could not have happened without US weapons and equipment, and that more attacks are coming. “Therefore, the US, in our opinion, is a partner in these attacks and must accept its responsibility.”

Talking to Fox News, Netanyahu seemed to clearly confirm that, saying he informed Trump ahead of launching the attacks.

He described the cooperation with the Trump administration as “unprecedented”, adding that the Israeli intelligence shares “every bit of information” with Washington. Netanyahu projected that regime change in Iran could be a result of Israel’s attacks.

Trump has denied any involvement and warned Tehran not to widen its retaliation to include US targets. But he also did not rule out more direct US involvement beyond the vast arsenal and intelligence the US provides to Israel.

“If we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before,” the US president said in a message on Truth Social.

He also claimed peace could be reached “soon”, suggesting that many diplomatic meetings were taking place.

“We can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel, and end this bloody conflict,” he said. Trump told ABC he would be “open” to Russian President Vladimir Putin being a mediator. “He is ready. He called me about it. We had a long talk about it,” he said.

The US president’s words were a first hint at Washington’s diplomatic involvement in the ongoing conflict.

If passed, the bill will establish for the first time a regulatory regime for stablecoins, a fast rising financial product.

The United States Senate has passed a bill to create a regulatory framework for US-dollar-pegged cryptocurrency tokens known as stablecoins, in a watershed moment for the digital asset industry.

The bill, dubbed the GENIUS Act, received bipartisan support on Tuesday, with several Democrats joining most Republicans to back the proposed federal rules. It passed 68-30. The House of Representatives, which is controlled by Republicans, needs to pass its version of the bill before it heads to President Donald Trump’s desk for approval.

Stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a constant value, usually a 1:1 dollar peg, are commonly used by crypto traders to move funds between tokens. Their use has grown rapidly in recent years, and proponents say that they could be used to send payments instantly.

If signed into law, the stablecoin bill would require tokens to be backed by liquid assets – such as US dollars and short-term Treasury bills – and for issuers to publicly disclose the composition of their reserves on a monthly basis.

“It is a major milestone,” said Andrew Olmem, a managing partner at law firm Mayer Brown and the former deputy director of the National Economic Council during Trump’s first term.

“It establishes, for the first time, a regulatory regime for stablecoins, a rapidly developing financial product and industry.”

The crypto industry has long pushed for lawmakers to pass legislation creating rules for digital assets, arguing that a clear framework could enable stablecoins to become more widely used. The sector spent more than $119m backing pro-crypto congressional candidates in last year’s elections and had tried to paint the issue as bipartisan.

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The House passed a stablecoin bill last year but it died after the Senate, in which Democrats held the majority at the time, did not take it up.

Conflict of interest

Trump has sought to broadly overhaul US cryptocurrency policies after courting cash from the industry during his presidential campaign.

Bo Hines, who leads Trump’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, has said the White House wants a stablecoin bill passed before August.

Tensions on Capitol Hill over Trump’s various crypto ventures at one point threatened to derail the digital asset sector’s hope of legislation this year as Democrats have grown increasingly frustrated with Trump and his family members promoting their personal crypto projects.

“In advancing these bills, lawmakers forfeited their opportunity to confront Trump’s crypto grift – the largest, most flagrant corruption in presidential history,” said Bartlett Naylor, financial policy advocate for Public Citizen, a consumer rights advocacy group.

Trump’s crypto ventures include a meme coin called $TRUMP, launched in January, and a crypto company he partly owns, called World Liberty Financial.

The White House has said there are no conflicts of interest present for Trump and that his assets are in a trust managed by his children.

Other Democrats have expressed concern that the bill would not prevent Big Tech companies from issuing their own private stablecoins, and argued that legislation needed stronger anti-money laundering protections and prohibitions on foreign stablecoin issuers.

“A bill that turbocharges the stablecoin market, while facilitating the president’s corruption and undermining national security, financial stability and consumer protection is worse than no bill at all,” said Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat, in remarks on the Senate floor in May.

The bill could face further changes in the House.

In a statement, the Conference of State Bank Supervisors called for “critical changes” to mitigate financial stability risks.

“CSBS remains concerned with the dramatic and unsupported expansion of the authority of uninsured banks to conduct money transmission or custody activities nationwide without the approval or oversight of host state supervisors,” said president and CEO Brandon Milhorn in a statement.

Shelters are a lifeline in Israel from Iranian missile attacks, but Palestinian citizens of the country have been locked out.

When Iranian missiles began raining down on Israel, many residents scrambled for cover. Sirens wailed across the country as people rushed into bomb shelters.

But for some Palestinian citizens of Israel – two million people, or roughly 21 percent of the population – doors were slammed shut, not by the force of the blasts and not by enemies, but by neighbours and fellow citizens.

Mostly living in cities, towns, and villages within Israel’s internationally recognised borders, many Palestinian citizens of Israel found themselves excluded from life-saving infrastructure during the worst nights of the Iran-Israel conflict to date.

For Samar al-Rashed, a 29-year-old single mother living in a mostly Jewish apartment complex near Acre, the reality of that exclusion came on Friday night. Samar was at home with her five-year-old daughter, Jihan. As sirens pierced the air, warning of incoming missiles, she grabbed her daughter and rushed for the building’s shelter.

“I didn’t have time to pack anything,” she recalled. “Just water, our phones, and my daughter’s hand in mine.”

The panicking mother tried to ease her daughter’s fear, while hiding her own, gently encouraging her in soft-spoken Arabic to keep up with her rushed steps towards the shelter, as other neighbours climbed down the stairs, too.

But at the shelter door, she said, an Israeli resident, having heard her speak Arabic, blocked their entry – and shut it in their faces.

“I was stunned,” she said. “I speak Hebrew fluently. I tried to explain. But he looked at me with contempt and just said, ‘Not for you.’”

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In that moment, Samar said, the deep fault lines of Israeli society were laid bare. Climbing back to her flat and looking at the distant missiles lighting up the skies, and occasionally colliding with the ground, she was terrified by both the sight, and by her neighbours.

A history of exclusion

Palestinian citizens of Israel have long faced systemic discrimination – in housing, education, employment, and state services. Despite holding Israeli citizenship, they are often treated as second-class citizens, and their loyalty is routinely questioned in public discourse.

According to Adalah-The Legal Center for Arab Minority Rights in Israel, more than 65 laws directly or indirectly discriminate against Palestinian citizens. The nation-state law passed in 2018 cemented this disparity by defining Israel as the “nation-state of the Jewish people”, a move critics say institutionalised apartheid.

In times of war, that discrimination often intensifies.

Palestinian citizens of Israel are frequently subjected to discriminatory policing and restrictions during periods of conflict, including arrest for social media posts, denial of access to shelters, and verbal abuse in mixed cities.

Many have already reported experiencing such discrimination.

In Haifa, 33-year-old Mohammed Dabdoob was working at his mobile repair shop Saturday evening when phones simultaneously all rang with the sound of alerts, triggering his anxiety. He tried to finish fixing a broken phone, which delayed him. He then rushed to close the shop and ran towards the nearest public shelter, beneath a building behind his shop. Approaching the shelter, he found its sturdy door locked.

“I tried the code. It didn’t work. I banged on the door, called on those inside to open – in Hebrew – and waited. No one opened,” he said. Moments later, a missile exploded nearby, shattering glass across the street. “I thought I was going to die.”

“There was smoke and screaming, and after a quarter of an hour, all we could hear were the sounds of the police and the ambulance. The scene was terrifying, as if I were living a nightmare similar to what happened at the Port of Beirut,” he added, referring to the 2020 Beirut port explosion.

Frozen by sheer fear and shock, Mohammed watched from his hiding place in a nearby parking lot as the chaos unfolded, and soon enough, the shelter’s door opened. As those who were inside the shelter began trickling out, he looked at them silently.

“There’s no real safety for us,” he said. “Not from the missiles, and not from the people who are supposed to be our neighbours.”

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Discrimination in shelter access

In theory, all citizens of Israel should have equal access to public safety measures – including bomb shelters. In practice, the picture is very different.

Palestinian towns and villages in Israel have significantly fewer protected spaces than Jewish localities. According to a 2022 report by Israel’s State Comptroller quoted by the newspaper Haaretz, more than 70 percent of homes in Palestinian communities in Israel lack a safe room or space that is up to code, compared to 25 percent of Jewish homes. Municipalities often receive less funding for civil defence, and older buildings go without the required reinforcements.

Even in mixed cities like Lydd (Lod), where Jewish and Palestinian residents live side by side, inequality is pronounced.

Yara Srour, a 22-year-old nursing student at Hebrew University, lives in the neglected neighbourhood of al-Mahatta in Lydd. Her family’s three-storey building, which is around four decades old, lacks official permits and a shelter. Following the heavy Iranian bombardment they witnessed on Saturday evening, which shocked the world around them, the family tried early on Sunday to flee to a safer part of the city.

“We went to the new part of Lydd where there are proper shelters,” Yara said, adding that her 48-year-old mother, who suffers from weak knees, was struggling to move. “Yet, they wouldn’t let us in. Jews from poorer areas were also turned away. It was only for the ‘new residents’ — those in the modern buildings, mostly middle-class Jewish families.”

Yara recalls the horror vividly.

“My mother has joint problems and couldn’t run like the rest of us,” she said. “We were begging, knocking on doors. But people just looked at us through peepholes and ignored us, while we saw the sky light up with fires of intercepted rockets.”

Fear, trauma and anger

Samar said the experience of being turned away from a shelter with her daughter left a psychological scar.

“That night, I felt completely alone,” she said. “I didn’t report it to the police – what’s the point? They wouldn’t have done anything.”

Later that evening, a villa in Tamra was hit, killing four women from the same family. From her balcony, Samar watched smoke rise into the sky.

“It felt like the end of the world,” she said. “And still, even under attack, we’re treated as a threat, not as people.”

She has since moved with her daughter to her parents’ home in Daburiyya, a village in the Lower Galilee. Together, they can now huddle in a reinforced room. With the alerts coming every few hours, Samar is thinking of fleeing to Jordan.

“I wanted to protect Jihan. She doesn’t know this world yet. But I also didn’t want to leave my land. That’s the dilemma for us – survive, or stay and suffer.”

While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated after the attacks that “Iran’s missiles target all of Israel – Jews and Arabs alike,” the reality on the ground told a different story.

Even before the war, Palestinian citizens of Israel were disproportionately arrested for expressing political views or reacting to the attacks. Some were detained merely for posting emojis on social media. In contrast, calls for vigilante violence against Palestinians in online forums were largely ignored.

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“The state expects our loyalty in war,” said Mohammed Dabdoob. “But when it’s time to protect us, we’re invisible.”

For Samar, Yara, Mohammed, and thousands like them, the message is clear: they are citizens on paper, but strangers in practice.

“I want safety like anyone else,” said Yara. “I’m studying to become a nurse. I want to help people. But how can I serve a country that won’t protect my mother?”

This piece was published in collaboration with Egab.

A delicate balancing act awaits Russia, one of Iran’s key allies that also maintains ties with Israel.

After Israel launched what it described as “preventive” attacks on Iranian military and nuclear targets last week, Russia’s position appeared clear.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Moscow condemned what it called “unprovoked military strikes against a sovereign UN member state”, referring to Iran.

The Kremlin, whose partnership with Iran dates back many years, has urged a diplomatic solution to the crisis.

Since the hostilities began on Friday, more than 220 people have been killed in Israeli attacks on Iran while 24 people have been killed in Iranian counterstrikes.

Both Iran and Russia shared an ally in former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and intervened on his behalf in the Syrian war until his eventual defeat late last year. Iran has supplied Russia with Shahed kamikaze drones to be used on Ukrainian targets, and last year, there were reports that Russia received hundreds of Fath-360 ballistic missiles from Iran, which are known to be accurate at short range.

“Of course, Russia should be friends with Iran because, in politics and in life, everything is very simple,” hawkish Russian TV personality Sergey Mardan commented after the latest Middle East crisis escalated. “If you have an enemy and your enemy has partners and allies, his partners and allies are automatically your enemies.

“There are no illusions about this, and there can’t be any. Since Israel is a key ally of the United States; … of course, we are interested in the weakening of Israel and helping its adversaries.”

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While Russia might be sympathetic to Iran, the extent of their relationship should not be overstated, said independent Middle East specialist Ruslan Suleymanov, who is based in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Russia now manufactures its own Shahed drones under licence, so its own combat capabilities are unlikely to be affected by the Iran-Israel conflict, he said.

“The Iranians, in turn, expected more from Russia. They expected a much larger amount of aircraft, military, space technologies, not to mention nuclear,” Suleymanov told Al Jazeera.

“But Russia did not rush to share because it is very important for Moscow to maintain a balance in the Middle East and maintain relations with Israel. And if Russia begins to supply arms to Iran, no one excludes the fact that these weapons can be directed at Israel, and the Kremlin does not want this.”

Although a strategic partnership agreement was signed between Moscow and Tehran this year, Suleymanov noted it does not mean Russia is obliged to step up to defend Iran.

“It is obvious that at any vote of the UN Security Council, Russia, along with China, will stand on the side of the Islamic Republic [of Iran],” he said. “However, we should not expect anything more.”

While the Western-oriented liberal opposition has been largely supportive of Israel, Russia is treading a fine line to uphold its ties with the administration of President Benjamin Netanyahu.

“One monkey got his grenade taken away. We’re waiting for the other one,” exiled Russian politician Dmitry Gudkov wrote on social media, referring to the Iranian and Russian leadership, respectively.

“Does Israel (or any country, for that matter) have the legal right to try to knock a nuclear grenade out of the hands of a big monkey playing with it next to it? And one that constantly growls in your direction? I think the answer is obvious.”

Russia’s relations with Israel are complicated.

Although the Soviet Union initially supported the creation of the state of Israel, it soon threw its weight behind Arab nations and backed the Palestinian cause.

Today, Russia refuses to blacklist Hamas as a “terrorist organisation” although its support for Palestine is balanced by its relationship with Israel. Israel, meanwhile, is concerned with the safety and survival of Russia’s Jewish community.

Regarding Syria, Russia and Israel shared an understanding whereby Moscow tacitly overlooked Israeli operations targeting its ally, Iranian-backed Hezbollah. Israel, for its part, avoided antagonising or sanctioning Moscow and arming Ukraine. However, the collapse of al-Assad’s regime has changed this calculus.

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“Russia and Israel, by and large, proceed from different interests in Syria,” observed Alexey Malinin, founder of the Moscow-based Center for International Interaction and Cooperation and a member of the Digoria Expert Club.

“If Russia had the goal of ensuring the safety of Syrian citizens, ensuring the stability of legitimate power, then Israel sets itself the goal of maximally protecting itself from potential threats from Syria, not paying attention to the legality and legitimacy of such decisions. Therefore, Israel calmly went beyond the buffer zone on the Golan Heights and de facto occupied the territory of Syria after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime.”

“It was really important for Russia to have contact with Israel, being in Syria, because without interaction with Tel Aviv, it was very difficult to carry out any manoeuvres on Syrian territory,” Suleymanov added. “But now such a need simply does not exist. Russia does not require any close coordination with [Israel].”

Still, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Netanyahu have in the past enjoyed a friendly relationship, even being spotted at a ballet performance together in 2016.

Russia the powerbroker?

Some analysts believe the Israel-Iran crisis provides Putin with an opportunity to flex his diplomatic muscle.

“Vladimir Putin has already offered mediation, and Russia is objectively one of the platforms most open to compromise due to constructive relations with both countries,” Malinin stated.

However, Suleymanov said, the Kremlin’s influence over the Middle East has waned since the change of power in Syria and it already has its hands full.

“Russia itself needs intermediaries in Ukraine,” he said.

“The situation in the Middle East will not directly affect the war in Ukraine. But for the Kremlin, it is undoubtedly beneficial that the attention of the world community, starting with the West, is now diverted from Ukraine. Against this background, Putin can move on to a further offensive in Ukraine.”

Malinin acknowledged that Western support for Kyiv could drop in the short term “in favour of Israel”.

“But it is unlikely that in this context we can talk about something serious and large scale.”