Over a third of people on sinking Tuvalu seek Australia’s climate visas
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Diverging Reports Breakdown
Over a third of people on sinking Tuvalu seek Australia’s climate visas
More than one-third of the people in the tiny Pacific nation of Tuvalu, which scientists predict will be submerged by rising seas, have applied for a landmark climate visa to migrate to Australia.Tuvalu is one of the countries at greatest risk from climate change, which experts say is boosting sea levels. Since applications for Australia’s visa lottery opened this month, 1,124 people have registered, with family members bringing the total seeking the visa to 4,052 under the bilateral climate and security treaty.
Tuvalu’s ambassador to the United Nations, Tapugao Falefou, told Reuters on Sunday he was “startled by the huge number of people vying for this opportunity”, and the small community was interested to learn who the first lot of climate migrants would be.
Tuvalu, one of the countries at greatest risk from climate change, which experts say is boosting sea levels, has a population of 11,000 on its nine atolls scattered across the Pacific between Australia and Hawaii.
Since applications for Australia’s visa lottery opened this month, 1,124 people have registered, with family members bringing the total seeking the visa to 4,052 under the bilateral climate and security treaty.
Applications close on July 18, with an annual cap of 280 visas designed to ensure migration to Australia does not cause brain drain from Tuvalu, officials said when the treaty was announced in 2023.
The visa will allow Tuvalu residents to live, work and study in Australia, accessing health benefits and education on the same basis as Australian citizens.
“Moving to Australia under the Falepili Union treaty will in some way provide additional remittance to families staying back,” Falefou said.
By 2050, NASA scientists project daily tides will submerge half the main atoll of Funafuti, home to 60% of Tuvalu’s residents, where villagers cling to a strip of land as narrow as 65 feet. That forecast assumes a 1-metre rise in sea levels, while the worst case, double that, would put 90% of Funafuti under water.
Tuvalu, whose mean elevation is just 6 feet 7 inches, has experienced a sea-level rise of 6 inches over the past three decades, one and a half times the global average. It has built 7 hectares (17 acres) of artificial land, and is planning more, which it hopes will stay above the tides until 2100.
More than a third of this country’s population has applied to relocate
More than a third of the population of Tuvalu has applied to move to Australia. Australia opened a roughly one-month application window for what it says is a one-of-a-kind visa offering. Under the new scheme, Australia will accept 280 visa winners from a random ballot between July and January 2026. More than 4,000 people have applied under the scheme, according to official figures seen by CNN.Tuvalu is one of the most at-risk places in the world to rising seas caused by climate change. It is among a group of 36 countries that the Trump administration is looking to add to the current ban on travel from 12 countries, including Burma, Haiti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea and the Republic of Congo. It has stood in stark contrast to US President Donald Trump’s administration, which has imposed sweeping crackdowns on immigration and climate change policies, including a ban on refugees from Syria, Iraq, Iran and Libya.. The country claims 900,000 square kilometers of the South Pacific, and is considered by Canberra as a crucial player in its ongoing struggle with China for regional influence.
The island nation – roughly halfway between Hawaii and Australia – is home to about 10,000 people, according to the latest government statistics, living across a clutch of tiny islets and atolls in the South Pacific.
With no part of its territory above six meters, it is one of the most at-risk places in the world to rising seas caused by climate change.
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On June 16, Australia opened a roughly one-month application window for what it says is a one-of-a-kind visa offering necessitated by climate change. Under the new scheme, Australia will accept 280 visa winners from a random ballot between July and January 2026. The Tuvaluans will get permanent residency on arrival in Australia, with the right to work and access public healthcare and education.
More than 4,000 people have applied under the scheme, according to official figures seen by CNN.
“The opening of the Falepili Mobility Pathway delivers on our shared vision for mobility with dignity, by providing Tuvaluans the opportunity to live, study and work in Australia as climate impacts worsen,” Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said in a statement.
CNN has reached out to the Tuvalu government.
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According to Tuvalu’s Prime Minister Feleti Teo, more than half of Tuvalu will be regularly inundated by tidal surges by 2050. By 2100, 90% of his nation will be regularly under water, he says.
Fongafale, the nation’s capital, is the largest and most populated islet in Tuvalu’s main atoll, Funafuti. It has a runway-like strip of land just 65 feet (20 meters) wide in some places.
“You can put yourself in my situation, as the prime minister of Tuvalu, contemplating development, contemplating services for the basic needs of our people, and at the same time being presented with a very confronting and disturbing forecast,” Teo told the United Nations Oceans Conference this month in Nice, France.
“Internal relocation in Tuvalu is not an option, we are totally flat,” the prime minister said on June 12. “There is no option to move inland or move to higher ground, because there is no higher ground.”
An aerial view of homes next to the Pacific Ocean, in Funafuti, Tuvalu, on November 28, 2019. – Mario Tama/Getty Images
The visa scheme is part of a broader pact signed between Australia and Tuvalu in 2023, which binds Australia to defending Tuvalu both militarily and against rising seas.
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Tuvalu, which claims 900,000 square kilometers of the South Pacific, is considered by Canberra as a crucial player in its ongoing struggle with China for regional influence.
Recognition is something Australia has said it will guarantee for Tuvalu, even if nobody can live there in the future. “The statehood and sovereignty of Tuvalu will continue, and the rights and duties inherent thereto will be maintained, notwithstanding the impact of climate change-related sea-level rise,” their treaty reads.
In 2022, at COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, Tuvalu announced that it sought to become the first nation in the world to move entirely online. The government has since developed a plan to “digitally recreate its land, archive its rich history and culture and move all government functions into a digital space.” Australia now recognizes Tuvalu’s “digital sovereignty,” which the country hopes will allow it to “retain its identity and continue to function as a state, even after its physical land is gone.”
Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said last year his country shared a vision for a “peaceful, stable, prosperous and unified region.”
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“It shows our Pacific partners that they can rely on Australia as a trusted and genuine partner.”
Australia’s support for the Pacific island nation has stood in stark contrast in recent months to US President Donald Trump’s administration, which has imposed sweeping crackdowns on climate policies and immigration.
Tuvalu is among a group of 36 countries that the Trump administration is looking to add to the current travel ban list, according to the Associated Press.
The ban fully restricts entry of nationals from 12 countries: Afghanistan; Myanmar, also known as Burma; Chad; Republic of the Congo; Equatorial Guinea; Eritrea; Haiti; Iran; Libya; Somalia; Sudan; and Yemen. People from seven countries also face partial restrictions: Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan and Venezuela.
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The 36 countries, including Tuvalu’s Pacific neighbors Tonga and Vanuatu, had been told to commit to improving vetting of travelers and take steps to address the status of their nationals who are in the United States illegally or face similar restrictions, the AP reported, citing a diplomatic cable sent by the State Department.
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Where Is Tuvalu And Why 1/3 Of Its Population Are Scrambling To Transfer To Australia
Tuvalu, a tiny Polynesian Pacific nation, faces a threat that could make it vanish within decades. Rising sea levels caused by global warming threaten to swallow its islands entirely. Scientists warn that within roughly 80 years, climate change could render Tuvalu uninhabitable, with some of its islands already submerged or severely eroded. Under a new climate migration deal signed in 2024, Australia is offering visas to TuvalUans who want to move. The programme is the first of its kind, providing a formal pathway for climate refugees to seek safety Down Under. More than 3,000 people have already entered a ballot for these visas—almost one-third of the country’s entire population. However, only 280 slots are open each year to the Pacific Island nation’s citizens. Whether this number will grow or change is yet to be decided by official channels.
This mass migration effort highlights the urgent dangers posed by climate change to some of the world’s most vulnerable islands.
@lucy_lux2 Tuvalu, the fourth smallest country in the world, is also the fastest disappearing nation globally! This South Pacific island country consists of 9 coral islands, with only 26 square kilometers of land and a highest point of 4.6 meters, and a population of 11,000. The capital, Funafuti, has only 4 hotels, a small airport, and the entire country has just one street 12 kilometers long, with almost no cars among the residents. The economy relies on fishing, foreign aid, and revenue from the “.tv” domain name. However, the rise in sea levels poses a significant threat, with projections that most of the country will be submerged by 2050. #tuvalu #Funafuti #lucy #foryou ♬ original sound – Lucy (露西)
Tuvalu’s Location and Size
Nestled in the Polynesian subregion of Oceania, Tuvalu sits roughly halfway between Hawaii and Australia. It is an archipelago made up of nine coral atolls and low-lying islands, with the highest point just about 3 metres above sea level. The country’s landmass is tiny, covering only around 26 square kilometres, and its population was recorded at just over 10,600 in 2022 making it one of the smallest countries in the world. Majority of the population do not own cars.
Despite its small size, or perhaps because of it, Tuvalu’s location makes it especially vulnerable to rising sea levels. The nation’s low-lying coral atolls are increasingly threatened by the encroaching ocean. Two are already partially submerged, as of data provided in 2025. Scientists warn that within roughly 80 years, climate change could render Tuvalu uninhabitable, with some of its islands already submerged or severely eroded.
Economic Challenges and Vulnerability
Upon closer look, Tuvalu’s economy is fragile. The country has no significant mineral resources and exports are limited. Its main economic activities involve subsistence farming and fishing, both highly dependent on natural conditions. The soil is poor, and the islands lack infrastructure to support large-scale industry or tourism.
The nation relies heavily on international aid to keep basic services running. Its limited natural resources and the scourge of climate change have left Tuvalu struggling to provide a future for its residents. The island’s inability to adapt economically to these pressures has made migration a vital option for many.
The Climate Crisis and Rising Seas
Because of its low elevation, Tuvalu is often called the sinking island. Rising sea levels caused by global warming threaten to swallow its islands entirely. Already, two of the nine coral atolls have mostly disappeared beneath the waves.
This environmental crisis has forced Tuvalu’s government and citizens to confront the reality that their land might soon be uninhabitable. International action on climate change, while ongoing, has not yet slowed the tide of rising waters. The nation’s leaders have become active in climate negotiations, striving to make their plight heard on the world stage.
Mass Migration to Australia
In response to this looming disaster, Australia has taken a pioneering step. Under a new climate migration deal signed in 2024, Australia is offering visas to Tuvaluans who want to move. The programme is the first of its kind, providing a formal pathway for climate refugees to seek safety Down Under.
More than 3,000 Tuvaluans have already entered a ballot for these visas—almost one-third of the country’s entire population. However, only 280 slots are open each year to the Pacific Island nation’s citizens, where they will be offered visas under the climate migration deal. Whether this number will grow or change is yet to be decided or discussed by official channels.
Facing Rising Seas, Thousands in Tuvalu Seek an Escape Through Australia
Nearly a third of Tuvalu’s roughly 11,000 residents are seeking Australian visas to escape the encroaching waters. In 2023, Australia announced that it would launch these visas as part of a bilateral treaty it signed withTuvalu. Australia will offer 280 visas per year, and the first batch became available on June 16. Upon arriving in Australia, visa holders will receive immediate access to education, Medicare, the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), the family tax benefit, a childcare subsidy, and a youth allowance. The first migrants should arrive in Australia by the end of the year, according to UNICEF Australia. The Pacific Islands account for just 0.02% of global emissions, but they face far greater climate risks than any other corner of the planet. The government is working to preserve its land and statehood by creating a digital copy of the country.
As rising sea levels gradually swallow the world’s low-lying island nations, many citizens will have no choice but to leave their homes behind. In Tuvalu, one of the world’s most climate-threatened archipelagos, the migration has already begun.
Nearly a third of Tuvalu’s roughly 11,000 residents are seeking Australian visas to escape the encroaching waters. In 2023, Australia announced that it would launch these visas as part of a bilateral treaty it signed with Tuvalu—the world’s first to create a special visa in response to climate change. Australia will offer 280 visas per year, and the first batch became available on June 16. More than 3,000 Tuvaluans applied.
Successful applicants should know the results of the lottery by the end of July, and the first migrants should arrive in Australia by the end of the year, New Scientist reported. Upon arriving in Australia, visa holders will receive immediate access to education, Medicare, the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), the family tax benefit, a childcare subsidy, and a youth allowance.
“Australia recognises the devastating impact climate change is having on the livelihoods, security and wellbeing of climate vulnerable countries and people, particularly in the Pacific region,” Australia’s foreign affairs department told The Guardian.
Tuvalu is located in the west-central Pacific Ocean and has an average elevation of less than 10 feet (3 meters). Some studies suggest many of its islands will become uninhabitable due to flooding, saltwater intrusion, storm surge, and erosion before the end of the century, according to the World Bank. NASA researchers, for example, have predicted that Tuvalu and other Pacific Island nations will see at least 6 inches (15 centimeters) of sea level rise in the next 30 years alone.
“I am living the reality of climate change,” Grace Malie, a Tuvalu citizen and youth delegate for the Rising Nations Initiative, told NASA in 2024. “Everyone [in Tuvalu] lives by the coast or along the coastline, so everyone gets heavily affected by this.”
Funafuti, Tuvalu’s capital and its most populous atoll, has already experienced a sea-level rise of about 5.5 inches (14 centimeters) over the past three decades, according to NASA’s Sea Level Change Team. That’s approximately 1.5 times the global average rate. Funafuti is home to 60% of Tuvalu’s population, and by 2050, scientists predict half of its area will become submerged by daily tides.
Tuvaluans are already feeling the effects of rising seas. The constant influx of saltwater has contaminated the country’s farmland and groundwater, forcing citizens to rely on rainwater collection tanks and central raised gardens. This has made the island nation more vulnerable to droughts, water shortages, and disease outbreaks, according to UNICEF Australia.
Tuvalu has implemented strategies to combat sea level rise, particularly through the Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project (TCAP), which the government launched in 2017. There have been successes, including improvements to coastal hazard monitoring, land reclamations, and coastal protections for outer islands. Still, many challenges remain.
As Tuvalu faces the reality of sinking beneath the waves, the government is working to preserve its land and statehood by creating a digital copy of the country. The project aims to “recreate [Tuvalu’s] land, archive its rich history and culture, and move all governmental functions into a digital space,” according to its website.
Tuvalu could be the first country to disappear as a result of climate change, but it almost certainly won’t be the last. Despite accounting for just 0.02% of global emissions, the Pacific Islands face far greater climate risks than any other corner of the planet. As more and more Tuvaluans make the difficult decision to leave their homes, citizens of many other island nations will get a glimpse of what’s to come.