2d ago 15.36 BST Jakub Krupa … and obviously I will be here with a special blog Sunday night to guide you through the evening and bring you all the latest: explainers on why it matters, exit polls, first reaction and ‘what’s next’. See you Sunday night, live from Warsaw? But for now, it’s a wrap from me, Jakub Krupa, for today. If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com. I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa. Share

2d ago 15.27 BST What to expect when on Sunday? Jakub Krupa Back to Poland, just so you can plan your weekend. The polls on Sunday open 7am local time (6am BST), and close 9pm (8pm BST). We will then get an exit poll commissioned by the country’s three largest broadcasters. But expect it to be potentially very, very close, so we may have to wait longer before we can draw any conclusions. A late exit poll should be published later that night – probably somewhere between 11 and midnight – and partial actual results will keep coming over night. As reported earlier, the full set of results is expected at some point Monday, late morning or early lunch. View image in fullscreen Mayor of Warsaw and Civic Coalition (KO) candidate for the Polish presidential election, Rafal Trzaskowski (C), meets with local residents. Photograph: Tytuz Zmijewski/EPA View image in fullscreen Head of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN) and candidate in the 2025 presidential elections, Karol Nawrocki, meets with local residents. Photograph: Darek Delmanowicz/EPA Share Updated at 15.36 BST

2d ago 15.22 BST Russia ‘doing everything it can’ to ensure Istanbul talks ‘bring no results’ Meanwhile, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of “doing everything it can to ensure that the next potential meeting brings no results” ahead of planned talks in Istanbul next week. In a blistering social media post after his meeting with Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, Zelenskyy said: We discussed diplomatic efforts — both ours and those of our partners. Russia continues to ignore all calls from the world to cease fire and continues its killings. Moreover, for over a week now, the Russians have been unable to present the so-called “memorandum” they had promised to prepare immediately after the 1,000-for-1,000 exchange. Ukraine has received no documents from them — nor has Türkiye. For a meeting to be meaningful, its agenda must be clear, and the negotiations must be properly prepared. Unfortunately, Russia is doing everything it can to ensure that the next potential meeting brings no results. We value all our cooperation with Türkiye aimed at making diplomacy effective. We are grateful for Türkiye’s clear stance — consistent and full support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Share

2d ago 15.10 BST Chaos on German autobahns as Google Maps wrongly says they are closed Kate Connolly Confusion reigned on German autobahns and highways at the start of one of the busiest holiday breaks of the year on Thursday after Google Maps wrongly indicated that vast swathes of them were closed. View image in fullscreen Google Maps chaos in Germany Photograph: Google Maps People using the navigation service around major conurbations such as Frankfurt, Hamburg and Berlin on motorways between western, northern, south-western and central Germany were confronted with maps sprinkled with a mass of red dots indicating stop signs. The phenomenon also affected parts of Belgium and the Netherlands. Those relying on Google Maps were left with the impression that large parts of Germany had ground to a halt. The situation was compounded by the fact that large numbers of Germans were on the road at the start of a four-day break for the Ascension holiday. The closure reports led to the clogging of alternative routes on smaller thoroughfares and lengthy delays as people scrambled to find detours. Police and road traffic control authorities had to answer a flood of queries as people contacted them for help. Drivers using or switching to alternative apps, such as Apple Maps or Waze, or turning to traffic news on their radios, were given a completely contrasting picture, reflecting the reality that traffic was mostly flowing freely on the apparently affected routes. The cause of the digital navigation breakdown is still unclear. Chaos on German autobahns as Google Maps wrongly says they are closed Read more Share

2d ago 14.54 BST Georgian opposition leader in pre-trial detention amid crackdown on dissenters A Georgian court placed Nika Melia, a leader of the country’s main opposition party, in pre-trial detention, amid a widening crackdown against a pro-Western opposition that has staged months of anti-government protests, Reuters reported. View image in fullscreen Georgian opposition politician Nika Melia attends a court hearing in Tbilisi

Nika Melia, one of the leaders of the Coalition for Change opposition group, charged with failing to appear before the Georgian parliament’s temporary investigative commission, attends a court hearing in Tbilisi, Georgia. Photograph: Irakli Gedenidze/Reuters Melia, a top leader of the Coalition for Change opposition bloc, was detained on Thursday for refusing to appear at a parliamentary inquiry into alleged crimes committed under jailed former President Mikheil Saakashvili between 2004 and 2012. The length of the detention was not immediately clear. Share

2d ago 14.04 BST Israel accuses France’s Macron of ‘crusade against the Jewish state’ Israel accused French president Emmanuel Macron of undertaking a “crusade against the Jewish state” after he called for European countries to harden their stance on Israel if the humanitarian situation in Gaza did not improve, AFP reported. View image in fullscreen French President Emmanuel Macron delivers the keynote address at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore. Photograph: Edgar Su/Reuters “There is no humanitarian blockade. That is a blatant lie,” Israel’s foreign ministry said in a statement, defending its efforts to allow in aid. “But instead of applying pressure on the jihadist terrorists, Macron wants to reward them with a Palestinian state,” it added. Earlier in the day, Macron said that France could harden its position on Israel if it continues to block humanitarian aid to Gaza, reiterating that Paris was committed to a two-state solution to resolve the Israel-Palestinian conflict, Reuters reported. “The humanitarian blockade is creating a situation that is untenable on the ground,” Macron said at a joint press conference in Singapore with prime minister Lawrence Wong. “And so, if there is no response that meets the humanitarian situation in the coming hours and days, obviously, we will have to toughen our collective position,” Macron was quoted by Reuters as saying, adding that France may consider applying sanctions against Israeli settlers. Share

2d ago 14.01 BST Jakub Krupa Let’s take a quick look at events elsewhere in Europe. Share

2d ago 12.52 BST Last day of campaign – in pictures View image in fullscreen Mayor of Warsaw and Civic Coalition (KO) candidate for the Polish presidential election, Rafał Trzaskowski (C), meets with local residents in Wloclawek, Poland. Photograph: Tytuz Zmijewski/EPA View image in fullscreen Mayor of Warsaw and Civic Coalition (KO) candidate for the Polish presidential election, Rafal Trzaskowski (C), meets with local residents in Wloclawek, Poland. Photograph: Tytuz Zmijewski/EPA View image in fullscreen Head of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN) and candidate in the 2025 presidential elections, Karol Nawrocki, meets with local residents in Domostawa, Poland. Photograph: Darek Delmanowicz/EPA View image in fullscreen Head of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN) and candidate in the 2025 presidential elections, Karol Nawrocki, meets with local residents in Domostawa, Poland. Photograph: Darek Delmanowicz/EPA Share

2d ago 12.00 BST Polish presidential election results expected on Monday Jakub Krupa Back to Poland, the Polish National Electoral Commission has just confirmed at their press briefing that they are hoping to have the final results of the presidential election on Monday morning or early afternoon at the latest. View image in fullscreen Polling clerks start to count votes cast in Poland’s presidential elections at a polling station in Gdansk, Poland. Photograph: Andrzej Jackowski/EPA Share

2d ago 11.26 BST Putin would only meet with leaders if Ukraine talks yield ‘results,’ Kremlin says Russian president Vladimir Putin would only consider a summit with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US president Donald Trump and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan if negotiations with Kyiv yield results, the Kremlin said. View image in fullscreen Russian president Vladimir Putin listens during a meeting earlier this week. Photograph: Grigory Sysoev/Kremlin Pool/Planet Pix/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock “President Putin has repeatedly stated that he is fundamentally in favour of high-level contacts,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov said as reported by Reuters, adding: “But first, results must be achieved through direct negotiations between the two countries.” The Kremlin also said it was sending its delegation to Istanbul and that it will be “ready” for a second round of talks with Kyiv on Monday. Share

2d ago 11.21 BST Jakub Krupa Let’s take a brief look at events elsewhere in Europe. Share

2d ago 11.15 BST For what it’s worth, former Polish presidents broke 3:1 for Trzaskowski, with legendary Solidarność leader and Nobel prize winner Lech Wałęsa (and Polish president from 1990 to 1995) the latest to declare his support for “anyone but Nawrocki” on his social media. “My last request… and a warning!” he said. Aleksander Kwaśniewski (1995 to 2005) and Bronisław Komorowski (2005 to 2010) also declared their support for Trzaskowski, but the outgoing incumbent Andrzej Duda backed Nawrocki instead. “I, Andrzej Duda, having the same right as all of you to go to the polls and cast my vote, will vote for Karol Nawrocki in this election, because I believe that he is a man who will strive and do everything he can to make Poland an honest country, a strong country—also on the international stage,” he said last month. Share

2d ago 09.48 BST If you’re wondering just how close the polls are, I have just looked up all of them that were published in the last 24 hours. Trzaskowski leads in most of them, but by the tiniest of margins, from 0.2 to 2.4 percentage points. But two of them also give a win to Nawrocki, including OGB Pro for Wirtualna Polska which came closest to the actual result in the first round two weeks ago. They predict the race to be decided by somewhere around 260,000 votes. To give you an idea of just how tight that is, there are almost 700,000 registered voters overseas, including some 181,000 in the UK. So it is theoretically possible that their votes could decide the race… Share

Parliament holds most power in Poland but the president can veto legislation so the vote is being watched closely in neighbouring Ukraine, as well as in Russia, the U.S. and across the EU.

Turnout holds the key to the contest between Rafal Trzaskowski of ruling centrists Civic Coalition (KO), who holds a narrow lead, and Karol Nawrocki, backed by nationalists Law and Justice (PiS).

By Alan Charlish WARSAW (Reuters) -Poland holds a knife-edge presidential election on Sunday which will determine whether the largest country in the European Union’s eastern wing cements its place in the bloc’s mainstream or turns towards MAGA-style nationalism.

Both candidates agree on the need to spend heavily on defence, as U.S. President Donald Trump is demanding from Europe, and to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s three-year-old invasion.

But while Trzaskowski sees Ukraine’s future membership of NATO as essential for Poland’s security, Nawrocki has recently said he would not ratify it as president as this could draw the alliance into a war with Russia.

Trzaskowski says strong relations with both Brussels and Washington are essential for Poland’s security, but Nawrocki, who met Trump in the White House in May, prioritises relations with the United States.

If Nawrocki wins, he is likely to follow a similar path to President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally who has used his veto power to block the government’s efforts to undo the previous PiS administration’s judicial reforms which the EU says undermined the independence of the courts.

Coming around a year-and-a half since Prime Minister Donald Tusk took office, the vote provides the stiffest test yet of support for his broad coalition government, with Nawrocki presenting the ballot as a referendum on its actions.

Voting begins at 7 a.m. (0500 GMT) and is due to end at 9 p.m., with exit polls published soon afterwards. The electoral commission says it hopes final results will be announced on Monday morning or early afternoon.

Opinion polls show that the difference between the candidates is within the margin of error.

In 2023, huge queues outside polling stations in large cities forced some to stay open later than planned. Analysts said that high participation by younger, liberal, urban Poles was crucial in securing a majority for Tusk.

Trzaskowski is hoping that such scenes will be repeated on Sunday.

“Encourage everyone, so that as many Poles as possible vote in the presidential election,” he told a rally in Wloclawek, central Poland, on Friday.

Nawrocki, who draws inspiration from United States President Donald Trump and his Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, told supporters in Biala Podlaska in the country’s east that “these elections could be decided by single votes”.

SOCIAL ISSUES

The two candidates also differ on social issues, with Trzaskowski favouring the liberalisation of abortion laws and introduction of civil partnerships for LGBT couples, while Nawrocki says predominantly Catholic Poland should reject such moves.

The first round of the election on May 18 saw a surge in support for the anti-establishment far-right, suggesting that the KO-PiS duopoly that has dominated Polish politics for a generation may be starting to fracture.

Nevertheless, after a tumultuous campaign in which Nawrocki in particular faced a slew of negative media reports about his alleged past conduct, once again candidates representing the two main parties are facing off in the second round.

PiS has traditionally enjoyed high support in small towns and rural areas, especially in the south and east. These areas are typically more socially conservative than larger cities and poorer, creating a sense of exclusion that PiS has tapped into.

“They want to build a Poland for the elites,” Nawrocki told voters in Biala Podlaska, referring to his opponents from KO.

“I am simply one of you, I am a citizen of the Polish state who has travelled a long road to be able to today face a person who is the creation of a political laboratory!”

KO, meanwhile, campaigns on a pro-European centrist agenda that appeals to more liberal-minded Poles who mainly live in cities or bigger towns.

Trzaskowski took heart from the turnout at a rally in Ciechanow, central Poland.

“Looking at this mobilisation, I see how much hope you have – hope in a future in which Poland plays a leading role in the European Union,” he said.

(Reporting by Alan Charlish; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

Disclaimer: This report is auto generated from the Reuters news service. ThePrint holds no responsibility for its content.

Poland faces a razor-thin presidential run-off, with polls showing just a one to two per cent gap between the leading candidates: nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki and liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, with a margin of error that leaves the outcome wide open. RFI spoke to veteran political observer Marcin Święcicki, a former mayor of Warsaw.

“The decisive second round has become unpredictable,” Święcicki told RFI, as the campaign is increasingly dominated by personal attacks and controversies rather than substantive policy debate.

A significant factor in the run-off is the influence of ultra-conservative voters, whose candidate secured about 20 per cent in the first round.

Their support has pushed the mainstream conservative contender further to the right, as he agreed to a series of hardline demands — including opposition to European treaties, the euro, and Ukraine’s NATO membership, as well as maintaining strict abortion laws — in exchange for their backing.

“The conservative candidate agreed to all these ultra-conservative demands, so somehow he moved towards more ultra-conservative positions than he, and even his party, previously held,” Święcicki says.

He added, however, that this shift “may not guarantee” the support of all ultra-conservative voters, many of whom are young and may find the conservative candidate “not very attractive, boring sometimes,” in contrast to the more dynamic, pro-European Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski.

It a pity somehow that these ultra-conservative candidates are a decisive factor. 01:08 REMARK by former Warsaw mayor Marcin Swiecicki Jan van der Made

For Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a pro-EU reformer, Sunday’s vote is crucial: it will either empower him with a presidential ally who can advance his rule-of-law agenda, or saddle him with a rival who could veto legislation and block government initiatives.

The second round of Poland’s elections takes place two weeks after elections in Romania, where centrist former Mayor of Bucharest Nicușor Dan defeated the far-right candidate George Simion.

Polish PM Donald Tusk meets with Romanian President-elect Nicusor Dan in Warsaw, 25 May, 2025. © Facebook / Nicușor Dan

Divided Romania faces uncertain future despite rejecting the far right

‘Public disappointment’

In Poland, which for years was governed by an ultra-conservative administration and only last year saw a change with the election of Donald Tusk’s centrist Civic Platform, the battle is far from over.

Despite a year under the new pro-European government, Święcicki observed a “sense of public disappointment,” citing limited achievements and ongoing political deadlock. The conservative president’s power to veto legislation—overridable only by a 60 per cent parliamentary majority, which the current coalition does not possess—has obstructed reform efforts.

This political duality has left key issues unresolved, including judicial reforms and ambassadorial appointments. “To put order into this, you need close cooperation between the parliamentary majority and the president,” Święcicki said.

On social policy, Święcicki noted little difference between the two candidates, who both “support social allowances, maintaining the current retirement age, and benefits for families with children.” However, he warned that the dominance of right-wing forces has curtailed debate on more contentious issues such as abortion, European integration, and LGBTQ+ rights.

The conservative PiS party is known for endorsing declarations from over 90 conservative regions and municipalities that have proclaimed themselves “LGBT Ideology-Free Zones” or signed “Family Charters” aimed at protecting children from what they describe as immoral influences—implicitly targeting LGBTQ+ people and denying rights to same-sex couples.

Meanwhile, Civic Platform and its candidate Trzaskowski have signed a 12-point LGBT declaration aimed at improving support and protection for LGBTQ+ individuals. The declaration proposes measures such as providing shelter for LGBTQ+ teenagers rejected by their families, establishing local crisis helplines, and introducing anti-discrimination policies and sex education in city schools.

The Warsaw Pride march on 15 June, 2024. AFP – SERGEI GAPON

Consensus remains on foreign policy, particularly with regard to Ukraine, with broad support for aiding Kyiv and keeping Russian forces at bay. The only recent divergence has been the conservative candidate’s pledge—made under pressure from ultra-conservatives—not to support Ukraine’s NATO membership, a move Święcicki described as tactical rather than ideological.

Polish nationalists stage anti-immigration demonstration ahead of polls

Poland and Ukraine

Meanwhile, as the current holder of the European Council presidency, Poland has made incremental progress on EU security and defence coordination, Święcicki said, particularly in supporting Ukraine and in joint armaments procurement.

Święcicki underscores Poland’s strategic interest in seeing Ukraine join both the EU and NATO, despite lingering historical disputes over Second World War-era massacres and the exhumation of victims, which periodically resurface and risk jeopardising the broader relationship.

The “Volhynia massacres” were carried out over a two-year period during the Second World War in German-occupied Poland by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), with the support of segments of the local Ukrainian population. Up to 100,000 members of the Polish community—a minority living in Volhynia, in what is now western Ukraine—were killed.

Memorial OUN-UPA Genocide Victims’ Avenue located in the city of Legnica, Poland © Wikimedia Commons

Since the beginning of this century, a slow process of reconciliation has begun, marked by mutual visits and commemorations. However, the issue of exhuming the bodies remains unresolved.

Only in January did Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reach an agreement to permit the unearthing of the victims’ remains, though no concrete dates have yet been set. Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister, Wladysław Kosiniak-Kamysz , told broadcaster Polsat that failing to fully resolve the Volhynia issue would impact Poland’s support for Ukraine’s bid to join the EU.

But Święcicki is more optimistic. “It is Poland’s strategic interest to have Ukraine in the European Union and in NATO. So these disputes over exhumation cannot really kill the idea of having Ukraine with us, rather than leaving it to the Russians, to the Kremlin,” he says.

Foreign interference

Meanwhile, US President Donald J. Trump met with Nawrocki earlier this month at the White House and sent his Homeland Security Secretary, Kristi Noem, to a meeting of the conservative pressure group CPAC in Poland, where she delivered a strong endorsement.

Noem even suggested closer US-Polish military ties in the event of a Nawrocki victory, with the implied warning that a Trzaskowski win could jeopardise Poland’s security.

Hungary’s “illiberal” Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán – who maintains close ties with the Kremlin – also offered his support to Nawrocki at a CPAC meeting in Budapest on Thursday.

Polls have opened in Poland for the second round of the presidential election, with the two candidates offering radically different visions for the country locked in a dead heat.

The race pits the pro-European Warsaw mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, backed by Donald Tusk’s politically-diverse governing coalition, against the historian and former amateur boxer Karol Nawrocki, endorsed by the populist-right Law and Justice (PiS) party that governed the country between 2015 and 2023.

While the role of the Polish president is largely ceremonial, it carries some influence over foreign and defence policy and a critical power to veto new legislation. This can only be overturned with a majority of three-fifths in parliament, which the current government does not have.

At stake is whether Tusk’s government will be able to make progress on its electoral promises on the rule of law and social issues, including abortion and LGBTQ rights, after 18 months of difficult cohabitation with the opposition president, Andrzej Duda.

A Nawrocki win would prolong the current deadlock, making it difficult for the government to pass any major reforms before the 2027 parliamentary election.

“Tusk knows the stakes and that if Nawrocki wins, he’s got a lame-duck administration for the next couple of years. And it will be worse than with Duda as Nawrocki will come in fresh, with a new mandate from what effectively turned into a referendum on the government,” Prof Aleks Szczerbiak, who teaches east and central European politics at the University of Sussex, said.

In the final days of the campaign, both candidates sought to court voters of candidates knocked out in the first round and mobilise their supporters, with analysts stressing that less than 200,000 votes could decide the outcome of the race.

Polls showed the difference between the two candidates to be within the margin of error, making it the closest election in Poland’s post-1989 history.

“The outcome is impossible to predict – there are too many moving parts, and even the slightest change on the day could tip the balance,” Ben Stanley, an associate professor at SWPS University in Warsaw, said.

On Friday night, the country went into electoral silence, which forbids further campaigning and new polls. This left voters with little more than 24 hours to reflect on a brutal and polarising campaign.

View image in fullscreen The mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski (left), with his wife, Małgorzata. Photograph: Andrzej Jackowski/EPA

Trzaskowski, the Oxford-educated Warsaw mayor since 2018 who previously held ministerial posts and served in the European parliament, sought to project himself as a safe pair of hands to work with the government on implementing progressive reforms.

However, his campaign faced difficulties because of close links to the unpopular Tusk government. He also had to defend himself against suggestions he is out-of-touch and elitist, and against allegations about foreign funding for online advertising promoting his candidacy.

In turn, Nawrocki is new to politics. Since 2021, he has led the Institute of National Remembrance, a state research institute with public prosecution powers investigating historical crimes against Poland.

View image in fullscreen Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, holds a final rally in Biała Podlaska, Poland. Photograph: Kacper Pempel/Reuters

Formally an independent but endorsed by PiS, he offers a new face to the party which is burdened by the polarising legacy of its eight years in power. He received public support from the US president, Donald Trump, and members of his administration, as well as the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán.

But his campaign was beset with allegations of impropriety related to his past, including questions over his acquisition of an apartment from an older man and his admission that he took part in an organised fight between 140 football hooligans in his youth.

A win for Nawrocki could also alter Poland’s supportive position toward Ukraine. He repeatedly spoke about the difficult history between the two nations and declared his opposition to Ukrainian membership in Nato.

The polls will close at 9pm local time (8pm BST), with exit polls to follow. However, the race is expected to be too close to call, with the focus shifting to late polls and official results dripping in overnight.

Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, the presidential candidate of the Civic Coalition, speaks as he attends \”Patriotic March\” organised by the ruling party, ahead of the second round of presidential elections, in Warsaw, Poland, May 25, 2025. Agencja Wyborcza.pl/Kuba Atys via REUTERS/File Photo

WARSAW – Poles vote in a closely fought presidential election run-off on Sunday that pits the centrist, pro-European ruling party’s candidate against a nationalist challenger who draws inspiration from U.S. President Donald Trump.

Opinion polls show Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski of the ruling Civic Coalition (KO) narrowly leading Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, ahead of the June 1 second round, which will have consequences for EU ties and relations with Ukraine.

The two candidates embody contrasting visions of Poland’s international relations, security strategy and social policies.

Trzaskowski, 53, the Oxford-educated son of a jazz musician, champions a liberal agenda that stresses the importance of women’s rights and strong ties with the European Union and NATO.

Nawrocki, 42, a historian who has been endorsed by the Trump administration, has positioned himself as a newcomer with no political baggage. He wants Poland to follow a path inspired by Trump and regards Washington as Warsaw’s key ally, not Brussels.

Julia Szwoch, a 25-year-old student of pedagogy from the northern port city of Gdansk, said she would back Trzaskowski in Sunday’s run-off vote.

“I want to live in a Poland that is inclusive and takes into account the needs of all people,” she said.

In contrast, Michal Diug, 21, an electrotechnology student, said he would probably back Nawrocki “so there isn’t a monopoly of power” at the top of the Polish state.

Trzaskowski has promised “peaceful cooperation” with the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and to help undo changes to Poland’s judiciary under PiS that critics in the EU and at home said had eroded democratic checks and balances.

In the October 2023 election, PiS lost its parliamentary majority to Tusk’s coalition after eight years in power, amid widespread public dissatisfaction over PiS’s record on women’s and minority rights.

However, Poland’s outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, has used his veto power to block many of Tusk’s reforms and Nawrocki vows to do the same, describing the election as a referendum on the government.

“If my opponent, Karol Nawrocki, wins there will be only chaos,” Trzaskowski told a mass rally in Warsaw last Sunday.

Trzaskowski faces a tricky balancing act ahead of the second round. He wants to appeal both to supporters of the far-right Confederation, whose candidate placed third in the first round, and to progressives disappointed with Tusk’s government.

He has said he is against accepting more refugees after Poland took in almost a million Ukrainians fleeing the war next door, but remains committed to liberalising abortion laws.

“We have to go wide,” said Dorota Loboda, a Trzaskowski campaign team member.

CONSERVATIVE VOICE

Nawrocki said that after years of what he calls “mistakes”, including energy dependence on Russia and the EU climate pact, Europe needs “a strong, conservative voice, also from Poland”.

“I will make sure that Poland becomes the leader of the European Union in transatlantic relations. We have the best cards for this,” he told the Conservative Political Action Conference in Poland on Tuesday.

His campaign has been characterized by nationalist rhetoric and a focus on traditional values. Nawrocki opposes abortion and aims to keep coal mines operating until Poland develops its own nuclear energy. He opposes EU migration policies.

Although Nawrocki says he favours continued Polish support for Ukraine’s war effort, he says he would not ratify any application by Kyiv to join NATO. Trzaskowski argues that Poland’s own safety depends on Ukraine joining NATO.

Nawrocki has faced allegations about his past in liberal media outlets, including a report that he lied about owning a second property and that he acquired it from an elderly man in return for a promise of care which he did not provide. He has denied any wrongdoing.

Trzaskowski has faced questions over whether a series of advertisements criticising his opponents subverted campaign spending rules. He also denies any wrongdoing.

The election takes place against a backdrop of rising anti-establishment sentiment in Poland, with the far-right achieving their strongest ever showing. Pollsters expect far-right votes to go mainly to Nawrocki.

“We can already see in these elections that these anti-establishment emotions are driven by a perception that the politicians have again failed to deliver,” said Filip Pazderski, an analyst at the Stefan Batory Foundation.

“The situation will become ever more difficult for the current government,” said Pazderski, adding that if Tusk fails to deliver on his promises, existing tensions between coalition partners could intensify and a snap parliamentary election might become inevitable. REUTERS

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