Hundreds of foreign companies left Russia after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, including major U.S. firms like Coca-Cola, Nike, Starbucks, ExxonMobil and Ford Motor Co.

But after more than three years of war, President Donald Trump has held out the prospect of restoring U.S.-Russia trade if there’s ever a peace settlement. And Russian President Vladimir Putin has said foreign companies could come back under some circumstances.

“Russia wants to do largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic ‘bloodbath’ is over, and I agree,” Trump said in a statement after a phone call with Putin. “There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED.”

The president then shifted his tone toward Putin after heavy drone and missile attacks on Kyiv, saying Putin “has gone absolutely crazy” and threatening new sanctions. That and recent comments from Putin warning Western companies against reclaiming their former stakes seemed to reflect reality more accurately — that it’s not going to be a smooth process for businesses going back into Russia.

That’s because Russia’s business environment has massively changed since 2022. And not in ways that favor foreign companies.

And with Putin escalating attacks and holding on to territory demands Ukraine likely isn’t going to accept, a peace deal seems distant indeed.

Here are factors that could deter U.S. companies from ever going back:

Risk of losing it all

Russian law classifies Ukraine’s allies as “unfriendly states” and imposes severe restrictions on businesses from more than 50 countries. Those include limits on withdrawing money and equipment as well as allowing the Russian government to take control of companies deemed important. Foreign owners’ votes on boards of directors can be legally disregarded.

Companies that left were required to sell their businesses for 50% or less of their assessed worth, or simply wrote them off while Kremlin-friendly business groups snapped up their assets on the cheap. Under a 2023 presidential decree the Russian government took control of Finnish energy company Fortum, German power company Unipro, France’s dairy company Danone and Danish brewer Carlsberg.

Even if a peace deal removed the U.S. from the list of unfriendlies, and if the massive Western sanctions restricting business in Russia were dropped, the track record of losses would remain vivid. And there’s little sign any of that is going to happen.

While the Russian government has talked in general about companies coming back, “there’s no specific evidence of any one company saying that they are ready to come back,” said Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd. consultancy. “It’s all at the political narrative level.”

Poland holds pivotal presidential runoff influenced by Trump, the far right and the Ukraine war

Supporters attend a campaign rally of Karol Nawrocki, candidate for the 2025 Polish presidential election supported by Poland’s right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, in Biala Podlaska, Poland, on May 30, 2025, on the last day of campaigning ahead of the second round of the June 1 presidential elections.

Poland will vote tomorrow in the second round of a presidential election pitting two candidates with widely different visions for the country’s relationship to the European Union. Opinion polls have centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki neck-and-neck.

Poland is set to hold a presidential runoff election on Sunday between two candidates offering starkly different visions for the country’s future.

The winner will succeed President Andrzej Duda, a conservative who is finishing his second and final term. The outcome will determine whether Poland embraces a nationalist populist trajectory or pivots more fully towards liberal, pro-European policies. An exit poll by Ipsos will be released when polls close on Sunday at 9pm local time, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Final results are expected Monday.

Whoever wins can be expected to either help or hinder the agenda of the centrist government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk thanks to the presidential power to veto laws.

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Opinion polls predict a close race, with 50.6 percent of the vote going to Trzaskowski and 49.4 percent to Nawrocki, a tiny difference within the margin of error.

Read more on FRANCE 24 English

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WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland is set to hold a presidential runoff election on Sunday between two candidates offering starkly different visions for the country’s future.

The winner will succeed President Andrzej Duda, a conservative who is finishing his second and final term. The outcome will determine whether Poland embraces a nationalist populist trajectory or pivots more fully toward liberal, pro-European policies. An exit poll by Ipsos will be released when polls close on Sunday at 9 p.m. local time, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Final results are expected Monday.

Whoever wins can be expected to either help or hinder the agenda of the centrist government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk thanks to the presidential power to veto laws.

An unpredictable vote at a time of tensions

The vote comes amid heightened regional tensions driven by Russia’s war in neighboring Ukraine, security concerns across Europe and internal debates about the rule of law.

It follows a first round on May 18, in which Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski won more than 31% of the vote and Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian, earned nearly 30%. Eleven other candidates were eliminated.

Opinion polls show the two men running neck and neck. Other factors add to the unpredictability. Nawrocki did much better in the first round than surveys had predicted, indicating that his strength was underestimated. On the other hand, large numbers of Poles abroad have registered to vote in the second round, which could help Trzaskowski.

The candidates

Nawrocki is a 42-year-old historian who was tapped as by the national conservative Law and Justice party despite a lack of political experience or party membership. But this is seen as acting in his favor, as the party, which governed for 2015-2023, seeks to refresh its image before a parliamentary election in 2027.

Nawrocki’s supporters describe him as the embodiment of traditional, patriotic Polish values. They believe U.S. President Donald Trump’s support for him will strengthen Poland’s ties with the United States and make the country safer.

Trzaskowski, 53, is Warsaw’s mayor and a close ally of Tusk. A deputy leader of Civic Platform, a pro-European Union party, he has been prominent in national politics for years. This is his second presidential bid after narrowly losing to Duda in 2020.

Supporters credit him with modernizing Warsaw through infrastructure, public transit expansion and cultural investments. He is widely seen as pragmatic and focused on strengthening ties with other European nations.

A global ideological war

Nawrocki recently received a boost from Trump and other U.S. conservatives, who see the Polish election as part of a global battle between liberal and populist right-wing forces.

His campaign has echoed themes popular on the American right, including skepticism toward EU bureaucracy and emphasis on Christian identity. His supporters feel that Trzaskowski, with his pro-EU views, would hand over control of key Polish issues to Paris and Berlin.

Nawrocki also has been endorsed by the Trump administration and conservative Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Many European centrists are rooting for Trzaskowski, seeing in him someone who would defend democracy as it faces pressure from authoritarian forces across the globe. He has received the support of new centrist Romanian President Nicusor Dan — who recently defeated a far-right nationalist.

Nawrocki’s scandals

Nawrocki has faced a number of scandals over the past months, but it’s not clear that they are hurting him. In fact, they might have the opposite effect. Many right-wing voters don’t believe the allegations and accuse the media of using its power to hurt him, creating what appears to be a rallying effect around him.

Nawrocki himself has acknowledged that he took part in an organized brawl including football hooligans in 2009. A former boxer, he said he has taken part in various forms of “noble male battle” in his life.

Polish media have also reported on his connections to gangsters and the world of prostitution.

Tusk accused Law and Justice party leader Jarosław Kaczynski of tapping Nawrocki despite questions about his past.

“You knew about everything, Jarosław. About the connections with the gangsters, about ‘fixing girls,’” Tusk wrote on X. “The entire responsibility for this catastrophe falls on you!”

The key issues at stake

1. Security and war in Ukraine: With Russia’s war in Ukraine in its fourth year, Polish voters are acutely attuned to issues of regional security. Both candidates support continued backing for Ukraine, but to different degrees. Nawrocki believes that Ukraine should never join NATO, while Trzaskowski believes Ukraine should be allowed to join one day when the current war is over.

2. Rule of law and democracy: Trzaskowski has pledged to support the restoration of judicial independence and repair relations with the EU, which viewed changes by Law and Justice as anti-democratic. Tusk has tried to change some legislation, but has faced resistance from the the outgoing president, Duda. Nawrocki, while less outspoken than his party patrons, is seen as likely to preserve Law and Justice’s changes that politicized the courts.

3. Women’s rights: Abortion remains a divisive issue in Poland, especially after a near-total ban was imposed under Law and Justice. Trzaskowski supports loosening restrictions and has backed proposals to legalize abortion up to 12 weeks. Nawrocki opposes any liberalization and has campaigned as a defender of traditional conservative values.

STOCKHOLM (AP) — Sweden said Saturday it will step up insurance checks on foreign ships in a move aimed at tightening controls on Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet ” of aging ships.

The government in Stockholm said that, starting July 1, the coast guard and the Swedish Maritime Administration will be tasked with collecting insurance information not just from ships that call at Swedish ports, but also those that pass through the country’s territorial waters and exclusive economic zone.

“This underlines Sweden’s clear presence in the Baltic Sea, which in itself has a deterrent effect,” Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said in a statement. “It also provides Sweden and our allies with important information about vessels that can be used as a basis for sanctions listings of more vessels in the shadow fleet.”

Russia uses its shadow fleet to transport oil and gas, or to carry stolen Ukrainian grain. The European Union has now targeted almost 350 of the ships in total in sanctions packages, most recently on May 20.

Kristersson said that “we are seeing more and more problematic events in the Baltic Sea and this requires us not only to hope for the best, but also to plan for the worst.”

The average age of the vessels is around 18 years, meaning they’re near the end of their lifespan and are more vulnerable to accidents, especially if they’re not well-maintained.

The Associated Press