White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt took a wild jab at Harvard University on Tuesday as the Trump administration continues to pile on its attacks, eyeing further ways to pull funding from the Ivy League institution.

“The president is more interested in giving that taxpayer money to trade schools and programs and state schools where they are promoting American values but, most importantly, educating the next generation based on skills that we need in our economy and our society,” she told Fox News’ Sean Hannity.

“Apprenticeships, electricians, plumbers — we need more of those in our country and less LGBTQ graduate majors from Harvard University and that’s what this administration’s position is,” she continued.

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Moments earlier, Leavitt referred to the administration’s “common sense” policy toward funding Harvard before questioning why a university “pushing anti-American values” with a $53 billion endowment should receive taxpayer funds.

After the White House froze billions in federal funds and grants to the university last month, it’s now considering canceling all remaining federal contracts with the institution, The New York Times first reported Tuesday.

Harvard and the White House are locked in a legal battle that saw a federal judge on Friday block the Trump administration’s plan to bar the institution from enrolling foreign students.

The administration’s effort has sparked sharp criticism against the president among Harvard’s international student community.

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President Donald Trump has recently toyed with the idea of college students taking on trades beyond their majors.

Earlier this month, he challenged University of Alabama graduates to not just use their “talents for financial speculation” but to also apply their skills toward “forging the steel and pouring the concrete of new American factories, plants, shipyards, and even cities which are going up all over our country.”

Social media users quickly clowned Leavitt’s comments.

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Report for Monday, May 5, 2025. 8:55 AM EST.

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here’s a look at today’s headlines, broken down by region of the world.

THE TOP HEADLINES Report for Monday, May 5, 2025 Ukraine Rejects Russian Call for a Three-Day Cease-Fire Trump says he will only accept ‘total dismantlement’ of Iran’s nuclear program Israel planning to seize all of Gaza, control aid distribution under new plan DeepSeek’s AI model is being used to design new Chinese warplanes Satellite images reveal Huawei’s advanced chip production in China

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES Cyber Experts Urge U.S. Officials to Speed Up Reorganization Efforts. As the U.S. faces unprecedented threats from cyberattacks, experts are warning about the potential impact of cuts to the nation’s cyber defenses. While critics say a strategy is not yet clear amid the cuts, administration officials say that cybersecurity initiatives are being restructured to focus more closely on threats to critical infrastructure. The Cipher Brief spoke to a range of cybersecurity experts to dig into where they see the threats, especially from China, and areas of optimism. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS How a Pillar of New York’s Chinese Community Did Beijing’s Dirty Work . Liu Shenxiang, a former Chinese state-company executive accused by China of financial crimes, has lived in the U.S. for over two decades, and has staunchly denied the allegations by Beijing. In an attempt to force his return to China, Chinese authorities published his New York address and pursued aggressive tactics as part of their international anti-corruption campaign known as “Operation Fox Hunt.” A fellow Chinese expatriate, An Quanzhong—a wealthy businessman and respected figure in New York’s Chinese community—acted on behalf of Beijing to pressure Liu into surrendering, including facilitating personal threats through Liu’s nephew. Liu reported the harassment to the FBI, which monitored the situation. The agency calls such intimidation tactics, which include stalking or assaulting people on American soil, “transnational repression.” An was arrested in 2022, later pleaded guilty to acting as an unregistered foreign agent, and was sentenced to 20 months in prison, ordered to pay $5 million in restitution. His daughter also pleaded guilty to unrelated visa issues. This case reflects growing U.S. concerns over China’s use of covert tactics to enforce its laws abroad, often through local proxies. Liu remains in the U.S. under FBI protection. Wall Street Journal Everyone Wants a Piece of Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’ Defense Plan . President Donald Trump has launched an ambitious plan to build a high-tech missile defense system called the Golden Dome, modeled after Israel’s Iron Dome but expanded to include both space and ground defenses across the U.S. The system would integrate existing technologies with new innovations such as space-based interceptors, lasers, and possibly “rods from God,” dense kinetic weapons. Despite a lack of detailed public plans, Congress has proposed $25 billion to jumpstart the project. Defense contractors, from startups to major players like Lockheed Martin, are already vying to contribute, with over 180 companies having discussed the program with the Pentagon. Officials hope to demonstrate technologies as early as next year, but experts warn that engineering, cost, and logistics challenges make the project as complex as the Manhattan or Apollo programs. The effort reflects growing urgency in Washington to bolster advanced missile defenses, following China’s 2021 hypersonic missile test and the continued threats from North Korea. While space-based lasers remain largely experimental, the Pentagon is pressing ahead with a fast-track approach and is working to appoint a program director to lead the massive undertaking. The process is “going to require a whole of government approach, across all elements of national power,” predicted one former Air Force general. Wall Street Journal Trump administration plans downsizing at U.S. spy agencies . The Trump administration is implementing significant personnel cuts across U.S. intelligence agencies, including plans to reduce the Central Intelligence Agency’s workforce by about 1,200 positions over several years. Most reductions will occur through attrition—retirements and voluntary resignations—rather than mass firings. CIA Director John Ratcliffe has emphasized reshaping the agency to align with national security priorities, especially focusing on China and drug cartels. The cuts also target diversity, equity, and inclusion programs. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has similarly trimmed the Office of the Director of National Intelligence staff and said during a White House cabinet meeting last week that her agency is now “25 percent smaller and more lean today than when I walked in the door.” Critics warn that the downsizing poses security risks, including vulnerability to foreign recruitment efforts. While some argue the cuts could trim underperformance, others caution they may diminish U.S. intelligence capabilities. Washington Post New York Times America’s New Pacific Army Commander Lays Out His China Strategy. General Ronald Clark, the new head of U.S. Army Pacific, warns that China’s increasing military aggression, especially simulated blockades of Taiwan, has made the Indo-Pacific more dangerous than just a few years ago. The U.S. is deploying new missile systems like the Typhon to deter Chinese moves and forming agile, forward-deployed Army units designed to strike from the region’s frontlines. These Multi-Domain Task Forces will operate across key areas, including the Philippines, where joint drills with allies are intensifying. Clark emphasizes the importance of military partnerships and regional presence in overcoming China’s geographic advantage. While President Trump’s policies have raised trade tensions with Asian allies, Clark believes strong military ties can stabilize relationships and reinforce deterrence. As Beijing expands its arsenal and applies pressure on Taiwan and the South China Sea, Clark says the U.S. must be ready, proactive, and united with partners to prevent conflict through strength and preparation. Wall Street Journal U.S. ability to defeat China in Taiwan is threatened, top Indo-Pacific commander warns. Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned Friday that while the U.S. could currently defeat China in a conflict over Taiwan, America’s military edge is eroding. Speaking at the McCain Institute’s Sedona Forum, Paparo highlighted that China is outpacing the U.S. in weapons production, building submarines and warships at nearly double the U.S. rate. He emphasized that China is rapidly advancing its military readiness, including live-fire naval drills and rehearsals simulating various Taiwan invasion scenarios. The People’s Liberation Army is becoming more global in reach, seen recently when it conducted drills off Australia. Paparo said Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed his military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027—not necessarily to act then, but to have the capacity. Paparo also cited U.S. advantages in undersea warfare and space, but warned of a troubling long-term trajectory. He added that any Chinese decision would weigh Taiwan’s defenses and the likelihood of allied intervention. Financial Times Top Navy officer lists main tasks for the service. Admiral James W. Kilby, the U.S. Navy’s acting chief of operations, delivered a “State of the Navy” address last week at the Modern Day Marine conference in Washington. Kilby outlined plans to ensure 80% of aircraft, submarines, and ships are combat-ready, close a 23,000-personnel shortfall, and expand the use of unmanned systems. He stressed upgrading infrastructure, boosting sailors’ quality of life, and increasing warfighter training and technological integration, particularly in the contested Indo-Pacific. Military Times The World’s Top Jet Fighter Is About to Get More Expensive . The U.S.-made F-35 fighter jet, a major symbol of American military power, relies on over 80 parts from a Danish supplier and includes components from nearly 2,000 companies across about a dozen countries. This vast global supply chain is vulnerable to President Trump’s sweeping tariff policies, which are expected to increase costs for materials and components. Defense firms like RTX anticipate major financial hits and are lobbying for exemptions, while the Pentagon may end up covering rising costs. Although some companies like Northrop Grumman are less exposed, others—like Lockheed Martin—warn that prices could rise, especially without carve-outs for allied suppliers. Foreign nations that co-financed the F-35, such as the U.K., Italy, and Australia, also manufacture key parts. Meanwhile, tariffs on Chinese goods and metals are raising domestic material prices and spurring demand for scarce U.S.-sourced resources like rare earths. Defense firms are grappling with the uncertainty as they try to protect supply chains and contracts. Wall Street Journal Trump, Mexico’s Sheinbaum Spar Over Drug Cartels. Tensions have escalated between U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum over Trump’s push for deeper U.S. military involvement in Mexico’s fight against drug cartels. During a recent call, Trump proposed sending U.S. troops to help combat fentanyl trafficking, but Sheinbaum firmly rejected the idea, citing national sovereignty as non-negotiable. While Mexico has agreed to increased cooperation, such as intelligence sharing, troop deployments, and extraditing cartel leaders, Sheinbaum emphasized that no foreign military would be allowed on Mexican soil. The Trump administration continues to signal readiness for unilateral action if cartels aren’t dismantled, and has labeled some as terrorist organizations, intensifying pressure. Despite productive bilateral talks on immigration and trade, Sheinbaum has warned that U.S. military involvement would threaten long-standing cooperation and violate historical sensitivities. She is now proposing a constitutional reform to protect Mexico’s sovereignty further, even as both nations acknowledge the worsening cross-border security crisis. Wall Street Journal Reuters Associated Press How Trump has reshaped U.S. foreign policy in his first 100 days. President Trump aggressively reshaped U.S. foreign policy in the first 100 days of his second term, pursuing bold, often provocative initiatives. He has proposed annexing Greenland, absorbing Canada, reclaiming the Panama Canal, and turning Gaza into a resort, while reigniting trade wars with China and the European Union. Trump’s diplomacy has ranged from striking ceasefires to threatening economic retaliation and military action. His administration has engaged in direct talks with Iran, clashed with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, and imposed tariffs on allies. While some deals, like with El Salvador and Mexico, have shown cooperation, Trump’s overall approach emphasizes American dominance and strategic disruption. Washington Post Trump wants to rename Veterans Day in tribute to World War I victory. President Donald Trump announced plans to rename Veterans Day as “Victory Day for World War I” and to designate May 8 as “Victory Day for World War II,” emphasizing the need to celebrate U.S. military victories. May 8, known internationally as V-E Day, marks the end of World War II in Europe. Trump claimed the U.S. played the dominant role in both world wars, stating “nobody was close to us” in military prowess. The move could prove controversial, as Veterans Day traditionally honors all who served, not just those in World War I. Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev denounced Trump’s remarks as “pretentious nonsense,” noting the Soviet Union’s major role and heavy casualties in defeating Nazi Germany. Trump’s remarks came amid proposed cuts to the Department of Veterans Affairs under broader federal downsizing plans. No executive orders or formal changes accompanied the announcement. Wall Street Journal Reuters New York Times Embattled Voice of America remains in limbo after conflicting court decisions. Voice of America (VOA), the U.S.-funded international broadcaster, remains in limbo after a weekend of conflicting court decisions. Following a March executive order by President Trump that dismantled the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), VOA was taken off the air, with 1,300 staff sent home and funding halted. U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth granted a preliminary injunction against the White House on April 22, saying that the executive order was arbitrary and probably exceeded the president’s authority. Staff were told they could return next week, but that order was stayed on Saturday by a federal appeals court. The divided ruling paused the lower court’s mandate to reinstate funding and staffing, casting doubt over VOA’s return. Critics warn this could silence the broadcaster indefinitely. Supporters stress the importance of VOA’s global mission of getting U.S. messages abroad, while Trump allies frame the action as necessary government streamlining. The legal battle continues, leaving VOA’s fate—and that of affiliated networks—uncertain. Washington Post New York Times Politico Reuters Tech site 404 Media says Signal-like app used by Trump adviser was hacked. A hacker has reportedly breached TeleMessage, an unofficial version of the secure messaging app Signal, which was purportedly used by President Donald Trump’s former National Security Adviser Mike Waltz. The revelation, reported by Tech site 404 Media on Sunday, raises concerns about the security of high-level U.S. government communications. 404 Media stated that the hacker accessed TeleMessage’s backend and intercepted user messages, though not from Waltz or other Trump officials. Waltz had previously sparked controversy by creating a Signal group to discuss strikes on Yemen’s Houthis, accidentally adding a journalist to a chat. Signal, known for its end-to-end encryption, stated it cannot vouch for the security of unofficial versions of its app. Neither TeleMessage’s parent company, Smarsh, nor Waltz have commented on the incident. The White House also declined to respond. Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE Ukraine Rejects Russian Call for a Three-Day Cease-Fire. On Saturday, President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected a Russian proposal for a three-day cease-fire around the May 9 Victory Day holiday, calling it a “theatrical show” meant to ease President Vladimir Putin’s international isolation rather than contribute to genuine peace. Speaking to reporters in Kyiv on Saturday, Zelensky emphasized that only a meaningful, longer cease-fire, such as the 30-day truce Ukraine accepted earlier through U.S. mediation, could support substantive negotiations. He criticized the short truce as a strategic maneuver to allow safe optics during Moscow’s Victory Day military parade, which foreign dignitaries, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, will attend. Zelensky made it clear Ukraine would offer no safety guarantees to guests at the Red Square celebration, referencing continued Russian attacks on Ukraine during previous diplomatic visits. He warned, “We are simply either at war, or Putin shows he is ready to stop shooting.” New York Times Medvedev says nobody can guarantee Kyiv’s survival if Ukraine attacks Moscow on May 9. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, warned Saturday that if Ukraine attacks Moscow during Russia’s Victory Day celebrations on May 9, Kyiv’s survival on May 10 could not be guaranteed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “understands that in the event of a real provocation on Victory Day, nobody will be able to guarantee that Kyiv will live to see May 10,” Medvedev said on his official Telegram channel. His remarks followed President Vladimir Putin’s declaration of a three-day ceasefire (May 8–10) to mark the 80th anniversary of the Soviet World War II victory. Reuters Politico EU More American Air Defense Is on the Way to Help Ukraine . Washington is sending Ukraine another Patriot air-defense system, this time an older unit previously based in Israel, as part of ongoing efforts to bolster Ukraine’s defenses against intensified Russian missile and drone attacks. Discussions are also underway for Germany or Greece to provide another system, potentially bringing Ukraine’s total to 10 Patriots, although not all are currently operational. According to a former White House official, the Biden administration had negotiated the Israeli transfer in September. Current officials have refused to discuss Trump’s view of the move to send more Patriot systems, but a National Security Council spokesman asserted that the president “has been clear: he wants the war in Ukraine to end and the killing to stop.” The Patriot systems, essential yet limited in number globally, are in high demand and cost over $1 billion each to produce and operate. Russia’s recent barrage of missile and drone strikes has strained Ukraine’s existing defenses, prompting renewed pleas from Zelensky to purchase more systems. Analysts view Moscow’s escalation as an attempt to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses and pressure the public into accepting unfavorable peace terms, despite Russia’s stalled progress on the battlefield. New York Times Putin says Russia has the strength to finish Ukraine operation. President Vladimir Putin asserted that Russia has the strength to achieve its goals in Ukraine without needing nuclear weapons. In a state TV documentary marking his 25 years in power, Putin claimed the war is a defining moment in Russia’s relationship with the West, which he accuses of provoking Moscow and humiliating Russia after the Cold War. Despite high casualties and international condemnation, Putin insists the conflict will be resolved on the Kremlin’s terms. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump has expressed frustration over the war’s continuation, warning of a potential World War Three. Putin also reflected on his leadership style, rejecting the idea that he sees himself as a typical politician connected to ordinary Russians. Reuters Politico EU Associated Press The Guardian Message From the Russian Military: ‘We Lost Your Son.’ Thousands of Russian families are desperately searching for loved ones missing in Ukraine, as the Russian military provides little to no help in locating them. The Ministry of Defense offers no formal system to track missing soldiers, leaving families to rely on Telegram groups, online forums, and their own investigations. With estimates of missing soldiers in the tens of thousands, and thousands of unidentified bodies piling up in morgues, the government’s failure to assist has sparked frustration and grief. Many soldiers likely died on the battlefield and were left behind amid dangerous conditions. Efforts to identify remains are slow, and systems are overwhelmed. Some relatives still hold out hope, refusing to declare their loved ones dead to preserve benefits or out of belief they may have survived. Families criticize the lack of transparency and support, while the Kremlin’s Defenders of the Fatherland State Foundation meant to help is widely seen as symbolic and ineffective. New York Times U.S. Approves Up to $350 Million in Ukraine F-16 Training, Support. The U.S. State Department on Friday approved up to $350 million in F-16 fighter jet training and support services for Ukraine. This package includes personnel training, aircraft modifications, maintenance, ground handling, and software upgrades, aiming to enhance Ukraine’s defense capabilities amid its ongoing conflict with Russia. The approval signals continued U.S. support for Kyiv despite President Donald Trump’s preference for a negotiated ceasefire. The deal still requires Congressional approval and aligns with a broader U.S.-Ukraine agreement granting the U.S. preferential access to Ukrainian natural resources and reconstruction investments. Bloomberg Reuters Face-to-Face at the Vatican: How Trump and Zelensky Made Up . At Pope Francis’ funeral in Vatican City on April 26, Presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky held a quiet yet consequential 15-minute face-to-face meeting to mend strained ties after a disastrous Oval Office encounter on Feb. 28. The informal yet symbolically charged setting reportedly helped ease tensions, with both leaders describing the conversation as their most substantive to date. Zelensky, seeking renewed U.S. support after Trump’s earlier freeze on weapons aid, agreed to a mineral deal with the U.S. Zelensky also said he used the opportunity to seek stronger air defenses and tougher sanctions on Russia. While the meeting prompted Trump to issue rare public criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin and rekindled hope of improved relations, substantial policy shifts, such as new sanctions, remain absent. The event illustrated the theatrical nature of diplomacy between two showmen: Zelensky, a former comedian turned wartime leader, and Trump, a veteran of political spectacle. Experts caution that the core dynamic hasn’t changed. Trump is still focused on a grand rapprochement with Russia, and Ukraine’s fate remains entangled in broader geopolitical ambitions. Wall Street Journal Reuters U.S. readies new Russia sanctions over Ukraine, yet it remains unclear if Trump will sign. U.S. officials have finalized a new package of economic sanctions targeting Russia’s energy and banking sectors, including state-owned Gazprom, to pressure Moscow into accepting President Trump’s proposed Ukraine peace plan, Reuters reported on Friday, citing three U.S. officials. However, Trump has not yet decided whether to approve the measures. While initially conciliatory toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump has grown frustrated over continued Russian aggression. If enacted, the sanctions could mark a shift in Trump’s stance and include powerful secondary sanctions targeting countries like China and India that buy Russian oil. The outcome hinges on Trump’s approval amid stalled diplomatic progress and ongoing violence. Reuters Ukraine Looks to Host National Security Advisers, Zelensky Says. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky aims to host a summit with national security advisers from the US, UK, France, and Germany to advance peace talks amid Russia’s ongoing war, he told reporters in his office late Friday. The date remains uncertain due to recent shifts in the U.S. administration, including the ousting of National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and interim replacement by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Bloomberg Ukraine says it shot down a Russian fighter jet from a sea drone for the first time. Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (GUR) claimed on Saturday to have shot down a Russian Su-30 fighter jet using a missile launched from a maritime drone—a world first in warfare. The operation, carried out near the Russian port of Novorossiysk, highlights Ukraine’s increasing reliance on low-cost, agile drone technology to counter Russia’s superior firepower. Ukraine has previously used similar sea drones to disrupt Russia’s Black Sea fleet and downed a military helicopter in December 2024. Reuters Wall Street Journal Second Russian military aircraft destroyed within 24 hours, Zelensky says . President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Sunday that Ukrainian forces destroyed a second Russian military aircraft within 24 hours, targeting a military airfield in occupied Crimea. Earlier that day, Ukraine’s military intelligence reported the downing of a Russian Su-30 fighter jet using a naval drone—claimed to be the first-ever combat aircraft destroyed by such a method. Valued at $50 million, the jet was reportedly hit midair and crashed into the sea. Zelensky praised Ukraine’s expanding long-range capabilities. Meanwhile, Russia claimed it intercepted over 100 Ukrainian drones targeting Crimea and the Black Sea during the same period. Kyiv Independent Russia declares a state of emergency at port after Ukrainian drone attack on Novorossiisk. Russia declared a state of emergency Saturday in the port city of Novorossiisk after a Ukrainian drone attack reportedly damaged a grain terminal and several residential buildings, injuring five people, including two children. One woman is in serious condition. Video footage showed widespread structural damage. Authorities reported fires at grain storage units, which have since been extinguished. Despite the attack, Delo Group, which operates the terminal, continued business under emergency protocols. Ukraine has not commented. Reuters ANALYSIS: What must Ukraine give up for peace? In her Financial Times Weekend Essay, historian Mary Elise Sarotte argues that a potential Ukraine-Russia peace accord—especially one brokered by the Trump administration—could set dangerous global precedents. As Ukraine faces the likely permanent loss of Crimea and other territories, the risk is not just territorial but symbolic: formal recognition of Russian annexations would legitimize border changes by force and encourage future aggression, not only from Moscow but also potentially from China. A Trump-driven deal might abandon NATO principles and shift the global order toward a “sphere of influence” model where authoritarian powers dominate their regions unchecked. Sarotte warns that such an outcome would end the post-Cold War vision of self-determination for smaller nations and risk weakening NATO’s core guarantees. She argues that any peace must avoid legitimizing Russian conquests and instead emulate Cold War strategies, like the West’s refusal to recognize Soviet control of the Baltics. Ultimately, the terms of any deal could shape the geopolitical future far beyond Ukraine. Financial Times A Battlefield Death That Spelled the End for Russia’s Opposition. Ildar Dadin, once a committed pacifist and a symbol of Russian nonviolent resistance to Vladimir Putin, died fighting for Ukraine in October 2024. His transformation—from security guard and Mohandas Gandhi admirer to a soldier in Ukraine’s Freedom of Russia Legion—reflects the disillusionment and desperation of Russia’s fractured opposition. After years of brutal imprisonment, isolation, and relentless activism, Dadin concluded that armed resistance was the only meaningful path left. He volunteered for front-line combat, where he was known for both philosophical intensity and bravery. His battlefield death became emblematic of the collapse of Russia’s organized opposition movement. Wall Street Journal ‘U.S. will not turn its back on Ukraine,’ Trump’s spiritual advisor says. Pastor Mark Burns, described as a spiritual advisor to U.S. President Donald Trump, said his recent visit to Ukraine influenced Trump’s stance on the war, prompting stronger support for Kyiv. After witnessing the aftermath of a deadly Russian missile strike, Burns called Russia’s actions “pure evil” and relayed stories of atrocities to Trump. He claimed Trump has since approved initial weapons deliveries to Ukraine and endorsed a U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. Burns emphasized that “supporting Ukraine is America first.” Ukraine hopes that growing Russian aggression and failed ceasefire efforts will shift Trump’s approach toward more assertive backing of Kyiv’s defense. Kyiv Independent France to ramp up AASM Hammer smart bomb production for Ukraine, media reports. France will increase production of AASM Hammer precision bombs to 1,200 units in 2025, up from 830 in 2024, to support Ukraine’s defense against Russia. Ukraine’s air force prize these French-made guided bombs for their accuracy and resistance to Russian electronic warfare. Developed by Safran and quickly adapted for Soviet-era Ukrainian jets, the AASM has outperformed U.S. JDAMs in battlefield conditions. France currently supplies around 50 of these bombs to Ukraine each month. Kyiv Independent ​​Russia used thermobaric weapons in a drone strike on Kharkiv that injured at least 51. Russia launched a drone attack on Kharkiv using thermobaric warheads, injuring at least 51 civilians, including two children, Ukrainian prosecutors said Sunday. The Saturday night assault involved at least 15 Shahed-type drones that struck 12 locations across the city, causing widespread fires and damage to homes, schools, and businesses. Thermobaric weapons, known for their devastating blast effects, may constitute a war crime under international law. Kyiv Independent Russian drone attack on Kyiv injures 11 people, damages shopping mall. A Russian drone attack on Kyiv overnight on Sunday injured 11 people, including two children, and damaged homes, vehicles, and the Dream Town shopping mall. Fires broke out in several districts. The strike is part of a broader escalation in Russian attacks across Ukraine. Kyiv Independent Reuters Russian drone attack on Kherson kills 1, injures 2. Russian drone attacks on Kherson on Sunday killed one person and injured two others, damaging homes, vehicles, and a residential building. Three fires broke out but were extinguished by emergency crews. Kherson, located on the southeastern front line, is a frequent target of Russian strikes. Kyiv Independent ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, May 2-Sunday, May 4. SUNDAY– Russian President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed that Russia’s war aims in Ukraine remain unchanged and effectively demand Kyiv’s surrender, including territorial concessions, NATO withdrawal, and regime change. He repeated his assertion that Ukrainians are merely part of the Russian people and claimed reconciliation is inevitable. Putin framed the war as morally supported at home, invoking patriotic sacrifice and accusing the West of deceiving Russia after the Minsk agreements. His statements, along with ongoing militarization and the elevation of veterans, indicate preparation for a long war and possible future conflict with NATO/ Meanwhile, Ukraine’s intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov disclosed that Ukrainian forces used Magura-7 naval drones equipped with AIM-9 missiles to shoot down two Russian Su-30 jets over the Black Sea on Friday. SATURDAY–Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected Vladimir Putin’s proposed 3-day unilateral Victory Day ceasefire as a theatrical ploy, reiterating Ukraine’s support for a 30-day monitored truce to prevent Russian tactical gains. The Trump administration finalized its first military sale to Ukraine, approving a $310.5 million package for F-16 support and upgrades. On May 3, Ukraine used a naval drone-mounted surface-to-air missile to shoot down a Russian Su-30 fighter, marking a first in drone warfare. Russian milbloggers criticized their leadership’s drone innovation lag following the strike. The Kremlin escalated rhetoric that denies Lithuania’s sovereignty, using propaganda to justify potential future aggression against NATO states. FRIDAY– Russian frontline gains have slowed over the past four months, but Moscow continues to accept high casualty rates, averaging 99 Russian casualties per square kilometer gained in 2025. Russian forces still sustain similar personnel losses despite a 45% reduction in territorial advances compared to late 2024. Russia is maintaining its offensive tempo by deploying poorly trained recruits, which allows it to sustain pressure along the entire front. Vladimir Putin remains focused on leveraging battlefield momentum to extract concessions in peace talks or destabilize Ukraine. Although Western intelligence suggests Putin might pivot toward consolidating existing gains, current Russian actions—such as expanded assaults and tactical innovation—suggest he has not shifted his short-term goals. A transition to defensive operations and increased fortification building would signal a shift in Russian strategy. Putin remains committed to conquering all of Ukraine and weakening NATO. Russian propaganda and elite rhetoric continue to reject Ukrainian sovereignty, while domestic messaging hardens support for continued war and makes future peace concessions politically difficult. U.S. officials indicate the Trump administration may reduce its direct mediation efforts if Russian and Ukrainian positions remain irreconcilable. On April 29, the U.S. State Department submitted a proposed defense export license to Congress to support Ukraine’s military needs amid ongoing Russian advances in key sectors. Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, Kurakhove, Toretsk, Velyka Novosilka, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War Saturday-Institute for the Study of War Friday-Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE Romanian nationalist secures victory in first round of presidential voting. George Simion, a right-wing nationalist and outspoken supporter of the MAGA movement, on Sunday won the first round of Romania’s presidential election, securing over 40% of the vote and advancing to a May 18 runoff, likely against centrist Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan. Simion’s strong showing contrasts with recent global trends where Trump-aligned candidates have struggled, such was the case in recent Canadian and Australian elections. His victory also reflects public backlash against Romania’s Constitutional Court, which annulled the earlier win of ultranationalist Călin Georgescu due to alleged illegal activities. Georgescu, seen as an obscure candidate, was charged with a string of crimes in February. Simion, who has fastioned himself as a backer of ordinary Romanians, shares Georgescu’s anti-EU views, as well as opposition to aid for Ukraine, but is seen as more stable and better known. Though Romania’s presidency holds limited domestic power, it plays a key role in foreign policy and military oversight. New York Times Politico EU France 24 CNN ‘These people are disposable’: how Russia is using online recruits for a campaign of sabotage in Europe. European intelligence services have uncovered a growing campaign of sabotage across the continent, orchestrated by Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, as part of a broader psychological and political offensive against the West. The effort involves recruiting disposable operatives—often immigrants, refugees, or people seeking casual work—through platforms like Telegram, offering payments in cryptocurrency to carry out arson, vandalism, and surveillance. Some recruits are ideologically sympathetic to Moscow, while others are unaware they are working for Russian intelligence. One such recruit, a Ukrainian refugee named Serhiy, was sentenced to eight years in prison following his arrest in Poland with arson supplies and a fire-starting manual, after allegedly agreeing to torch a paint warehouse for $4,000. This decentralized sabotage marks a shift from past Russian operations that relied on professional agents; after repeated, mass diplomatic expulsions, and the unmasking of spy networks like GRU Unit 29155, Moscow has turned to freelancers and cutouts to sow confusion. Western officials say the aim is not mass casualties but to create chaos, fear, and political uncertainty, with “soft” civilian targets like shopping centers, infrastructure, and pro-Ukraine businesses now in the crosshairs. The ongoing war in Ukraine and potential changes in U.S. leadership could escalate this campaign further, leaving security agencies scrambling to identify threats amid growing ambiguity and risk. The Guardian Teenage Terrorists Increasingly Menace Europe. Teenagers are increasingly involved in terrorism across Europe, with many radicalized online through social media platforms that expose them to extremist propaganda, conspiracy theories, and violent ideologies. Arrests of adolescents, some as young as 13 or 14, have surged in recent months, with plots targeting public spaces like train stations and concert venues, including a foiled attack on Taylor Swift’s Vienna concert. The Gaza war, AI-driven content and addictive online environments have all accelerated radicalization, making it harder for authorities to identify and address threats early. Most young extremists are also acting alone and without direct leadership, further complicating law enforcement efforts. Wall Street Journal Putin, 72, says the succession is always on his mind. In a state TV documentary marking his 25 years in power, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he regularly thinks about succession and believes the Russian people should have a choice among several candidates. Though he gave no specific names, his comments hinted at the possibility of a future contest for leadership. Putin, 72, has led Russia longer than any ruler since Stalin, serving as president or prime minister since 1999. Currently, no clear successor is identified, but under Russia’s constitution, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin would take over if Putin were unable to serve. Reuters Rubio, Germany’s Foreign Ministry trade barbs over comments accusing Germany of ‘tyranny in disguise.’ A diplomatic clash unfolded on X after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio blasted Germany for classifying the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party as extremist, calling it “tyranny in disguise.” Germany’s intelligence agency recently made the designation, enabling clandestine tactics and increased surveillance, citing the party’s threat to democratic order and discriminatory stance toward immigrants. Rubio and Vice President JD Vance—who previously met with AfD leaders—defended the party and accused German authorities of suppressing opposition. Germany’s Foreign Office responded firmly, defending the classification as lawful and necessary to protect democracy. “We have learnt from our history that rightwing extremism needs to be stopped,” the office stated. The exchange highlights deepening tensions between American and European officials over far-right politics and democratic norms. CNN Associated Press Euronews Economic Times NBC News EU considers closer ties with Pacific trade bloc. The Trump administration’s trade policies have revived EU interest in forming a strategic partnership with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a major Indo-Pacific trade bloc. Although still in early stages, EU officials and CPTPP members such as Canada, New Zealand, and Singapore are exploring structured cooperation, including on digital trade and WTO reform. While the EU has bilateral deals with most CPTPP countries, a formal dialogue process has yet to be established. There is growing urgency among supporters to move quickly, though EU officials emphasize this would not mean joining the CPTPP outright. Financial Times

ASIA & OCEANIA DeepSeek’s AI model is being used to design new Chinese warplanes. China’s Shenyang Aircraft Design Institute is now using the artificial intelligence (AI) platform DeepSeek to aid in developing its most advanced warplanes, including future versions of the J-35 stealth fighter. Lead designer Wang Yongqing stated that AI is generating innovative ideas and automating repetitive tasks, allowing engineers to focus on critical research. DeepSeek’s integration signals a shift toward AI-driven aerospace development. Meanwhile, China is reportedly testing sixth-generation stealth jets and rapidly expanding the application of AI across civilian and military sectors, reflecting its broader push to close the tech gap with the U.S. South China Morning Post Japan, China swap rebukes over airspace violation near contested islands. Japan and China have traded accusations of airspace violations near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea, escalating tensions despite recent efforts to improve ties amid the U.S. tariff war. Japan protested after a Chinese coast guard helicopter entered its airspace for 15 minutes on Saturday, prompting a scramble of Japanese fighter jets. Beijing countered by accusing a Japanese civilian aircraft of breaching its airspace in a “severe violation of China’s sovereignty,” and claimed it took lawful action to drive it away. Both sides are investigating whether the two incidents are linked. This marks the first Chinese airspace intrusion near the Japanese-controlled islands since August, and underscores ongoing friction over the territory, which both nations claim. Associated Press Deutsche Welle With militaries upgraded, risks multiply in any potential India-Pakistan conflict. Since a major clash in 2019, India and Pakistan have each significantly boosted their military capabilities, raising the risk of escalation even in limited conflicts, experts warn. Tensions resurfaced recently after India blamed Pakistan for a deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir, prompting Prime Minister Modi to threaten retaliation. Pakistan denied involvement but has vowed to respond if attacked. Since the 2019 violence, both nations have upgraded air power and missile systems. India now operates French Rafale jets and Russian S-400 air defenses, while Pakistan has acquired Chinese J-10 fighters and HQ-9 systems. Both sides have also added advanced drones and missile capabilities. Military analysts note a higher risk appetite on both sides and warn that misjudgments could trigger dangerous escalation. The involvement of China, Islamabad’s ally and New Delhi’s rival, adds further complexity. One expert even noted that any battle “could be a contest between Western and Chinese technology.” While a full-scale war is unlikely, even targeted strikes could spiral out of control, especially between two nuclear-armed nations with a long history of friction. Reuters India bans imports from Pakistan amid tension over tourist killings. India said on Saturday it has imposed an immediate ban on imports from or transiting through Pakistan and barred Pakistani ships from Indian ports, escalating tensions following a deadly militant attack in Kashmir that killed 26 tourists. India blames Pakistan for the April 22 assault, a claim Islamabad denies. Pakistan has retaliated by halting border trade, expelling diplomats, and threatening to treat any disruption of river water flows as an act of war. Both nations have sharply reduced trade ties in recent years amid repeated hostilities over the disputed Kashmir region. Reuters Pakistan Conducts Missile Test as Tensions Flare With India. Pakistan test-fired its Abdali surface-to-surface ballistic missile amid escalating tensions with India following a deadly attack on April 22 in Pahalgam, in Indian-administered Kashmir, where 26 mostly Hindu tourists were killed. The Pakistani military said the launch aimed to ensure operational readiness and validate technical parameters, including the missile’s navigation system and maneuverability features. India, accusing Pakistan of involvement in the attack—a claim Islamabad denies—has responded by suspending key diplomatic and economic ties, including banning Pakistani imports and ships. Pakistan has retaliated with similar measures. The U.S. has urged both nations to de-escalate to avoid a broader regional conflict. Bloomberg North Korean leader Kim visits tank factory, hails progress. North Korean state media KCNA on Sunday reported leader Kim Jong-un’s visit to a major tank factory, where he inspected facilities and praised the upgraded design of the country’s indigenous tanks. He also stressed the urgent need to modernize the military with advanced armored vehicles. Kim called for a large-scale ramp-up in production of cutting-edge tanks and self-propelled guns, describing the effort as a “second revolution in armoured force.” He underscored the importance of rethinking tank design and military roles in modern warfare. The visit follows Pyongyang’s recent confirmation that it has deployed troops to support Russia in Ukraine, a move experts say has likely sharpened its focus on conventional weaponry over nuclear arms in current combat scenarios. Yonhap News Agency Reuters Albanese to focus on economy amid chaos of Trump tariffs. Following its decisive reelection victory, Australia’s Labor government has pledged to focus on navigating the economic fallout from the U.S.-China trade war, which Treasurer Jim Chalmers described as casting a “dark shadow” over the global economy. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, the first Australian leader in two decades to win a second consecutive term, has stressed unity and discipline as key themes for his government. Labor is projected to expand its parliamentary majority, defying earlier polls and a cost-of-living-focused campaign that shifted after the conservative opposition proposed unpopular public sector cuts and return-to-office mandates. Voter unease over U.S. President Trump’s tariff policies also played a role. Reuters

AFRICA In Congo, the M23 rebels’ latest fight is to revive the economy. The M23 rebel group, which now controls large areas of eastern Congo after rapid territorial gains, is attempting to shift from insurgency to governance by reviving the local economy. M23 has imposed steep taxes on coltan mining, businesses, and even humanitarian groups to finance its operations, collecting up to 15% on mineral exports and 20% on basic goods. The rebels reopened state-run banks but remain disconnected from the national financial system, leading to cash shortages and reliance on informal currency routes. Businesses are caught between paying taxes to M23 and risking sanctions, or refusing and facing shutdowns or violence. Despite these efforts, M23’s legitimacy is fragile. The group’s ability to sustain control remains uncertain with limited public services, local resentment, and looming international sanctions. Diplomats, including those from the U.S. and Qatar, are pushing for a peace deal that could unlock Western investment, but M23’s economic struggles and aggressive tax regime highlight the limits of its de facto rule. Reuters At least seven killed, 20 injured in bombings in South Sudan, MSF says. At least seven people were killed and 20 injured in bombings in South Sudan’s Fangak county, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) said Saturday. The attacks destroyed the region’s only hospital and pharmacy, leaving over 110,000 residents without medical care. One bomb struck the pharmacy, followed by a drone attack on Old Fangak. The perpetrators remain unknown. South Sudan has formally been at peace since a 2018 peace deal ended a five-year civil war between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and those loyal to First Vice President Riek Machar. However, the March arrest of Machar on charges of trying to stir up a rebellion has sparked international concern that conflict could flare anew. Reuters Al Jazeera CNN Sudan’s RSF conducts first drone attack on Port Sudan, army spokesperson says. Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched their first drone attack on Port Sudan, targeting a military air base near the city’s airport, an army spokesperson said on Sunday. No casualties were reported, but the strike marks a significant escalation in the conflict, as the previously safe eastern region now faces direct attacks amid Sudan’s deepening humanitarian crisis. Reuters Bloomberg Associated Press Ex-military chief sworn in as president in Gabon, signing a return to constitutional order. Gen. Brice Oligui Nguema was sworn in as Gabon’s fourth president on Saturday, marking a return to constitutional rule nearly two years after a 2023 military coup ousted President Ali Bongo. Winning the April 12 election with nearly 95% of the vote, Nguema pledged to transform Gabon’s oil-dependent economy, tackle youth unemployment, and improve infrastructure and social services. In a speech before a large crowd in Libreville, he promised unity and democratic renewal. While his leadership has sparked hope, analysts warn that real progress will depend on delivering tangible reforms. Gabon, despite its oil wealth, continues to face widespread poverty and underdevelopment, with legislative elections scheduled for September. Associated Press France 24 Deutsche Welle

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS Stocks Roar Ahead, Brushing Off Recession Warnings. Despite warnings from top economists that U.S. tariffs could trigger a recession—Goldman Sachs puts the risk at 45%, Apollo at 90%—the stock market is surging. The S&P 500 recently posted its longest winning streak since 2004, driven by strong jobs data and hopes for a de-escalation in President Trump’s trade war. Bob Elliott, chief executive of Unlimited Funds, asserted that there’s “zero chance of an economic slowdown priced in.” However, many economists caution that the economic impact of tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports, may take months to appear, potentially leading to inflation and slowed consumer spending. Signs of concern linger beneath the market rally, with consumer-staples stocks outperforming and economically sensitive sectors lagging. Meanwhile, rate futures and prediction markets reflect growing expectations of a recession, even as investors continue favoring stocks over bonds despite relatively low compensation for the risk. Wall Street Journal U.S. economy demonstrating remarkable resilience amid trade war . The U.S. economy remains resilient despite growing headwinds. While job growth and low unemployment continue, GDP shrank slightly in Q1 due to pre-tariff import surges, and consumer spending slowed. Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese goods have disrupted trade, raised fears of inflation, and prompted many businesses to cut forecasts and delay investments. Large firms like Apple and GM warn of substantial profit hits, while small businesses are especially vulnerable. Surveys show declining consumer confidence, rising fears of unemployment, and falling retail and travel activity. Despite positive labor data, recession concerns are rising, with economists warning the economy is now more exposed to shocks than in recent years. Some believe Trump may ease tariffs to prevent a downturn, but trade tensions and worker shortages continue to pressure supply chains and growth. Wall Street Journal Bloomberg Satellite images reveal Huawei’s advanced chip production in China. Huawei is rapidly expanding a network of semiconductor facilities in Shenzhen to produce advanced chips and reduce China’s reliance on foreign technology, with backing from the local government and indirect ties to start-ups. These efforts, accelerated after U.S. sanctions in 2019, are part of Huawei’s broader strategy to control the full AI supply chain, despite skepticism about its lack of experience compared to global leaders like ASML and TSMC. The U.S. has responded by placing associated companies on its entity list, citing concerns over Huawei’s potential role in China’s military modernization. Financial Times Google Can Train Search AI With Web Content After AI Opt-Out . In court testimony, Google acknowledged that its search division can train AI features like AI Overviews on website content—even if publishers have opted out of AI training—because that opt-out only applies to DeepMind, not other Google units. Publishers can only fully block such use by preventing their sites from being indexed in search entirely, using the standard robots.txt protocol. This has raised concerns, as AI-generated search summaries often reduce traffic to original sites, while using their content to generate responses. The revelations came during a federal antitrust trial in Washington, where the Justice Department is pushing to curb Google’s dominance in search, possibly forcing the company to sell Chrome and stop paying to be the default search engine. DOJ lawyers also revealed internal documents showing that Google had filtered out 50% of a dataset due to publisher opt-outs, but continued training models with search session data and YouTube content. Google VP Eli Collins confirmed some of these details and acknowledged that DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis had considered testing AI models trained with Google’s vast search data. The case underscores how Google’s market power in search also enhances its AI capabilities, raising both competition and ethical concerns. Bloomberg Why Are Deepfakes Everywhere? Can They Be Stopped? Deepfakes—AI-generated audio, video, or images that depict people saying or doing things they never did—are rapidly spreading online, raising major concerns across world governments. These forgeries are used for scams, political misinformation, non-consensual pornography, and reputational damage. Creating deepfakes has become easier with advances in generative AI, prompting governments to respond. The U.S. House recently passed a bill criminalizing deepfake revenge porn, and regulators like the FCC and the EU have imposed new rules on labeling AI-generated content. Deepfakes are becoming increasingly hard to detect, though telltale signs still exist. As detection struggles to keep up, the dangers multiply: misinformation, election interference, fake war crimes, and a rise in false “deepfake defenses” in court. Victims, often women and public figures, are left vulnerable. Some tech companies are developing detection tools and watermarking solutions, but experts warn that combating deepfakes will remain a difficult and ongoing challenge. Bloomberg Trump administration proposes $491 million cut to CISA budget. President Donald Trump’s proposed fiscal 2026 budget would cut nearly $491 million—or about 17%—from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), aiming to refocus it solely on core cybersecurity functions and eliminate what the administration calls “waste” and “weaponization.” The budget targets programs related to disinformation, international engagement, and overlapping state and federal efforts. The budget summary accused CISA of participating in a “Censorship Industrial Complex” to target the American people, as well as the president. Although CISA’s disinformation efforts were minimal—spending less than $2 million and largely phased out—Trump has long opposed even those measures, notably firing former CISA director Chris Krebs over a fact-checking site. The cuts have raised bipartisan concerns in Congress about weakening U.S. cyber defenses at a time of growing threats. Cyberscoop Cybersecurity Drive China’s counter-UAV efforts reveal more than technological advancement. China is rapidly expanding and modernizing its counter-drone capabilities in response to the evolving role of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in modern warfare. Observing drone effectiveness in conflicts like Ukraine, Israel, and the South China Sea, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has adopted a multi-layered defense strategy combining electronic warfare, radar, artificial intelligence, directed-energy weapons, and advanced command-and-control systems to neutralize drone swarms and low-cost FPV attack drones. Beijing has significantly increased investment in domestic counter-UAV technology, with over 200 procurement notices issued in 2024 alone, and over 3,000 manufacturers involved in the space. The PLA now employs a combination of active and passive radar systems which, when fused with AI and sensor networks, enable faster and more accurate threat detection. Integrated systems provide real-time, automated responses to aerial threats. Key innovations include high-power microwave weapons and laser systems, which can destroy drones without ammunition. These tools are increasingly mobile, AI-enhanced, and tailored to engage swarming threats. Civil-military fusion also plays a critical role, as private tech firms and defense enterprises collaborate. China’s efforts reflect a focused commitment to mastering drone defense, securing low-altitude airspace, and asserting dominance in the electromagnetic domain of future warfare. Defense One Ransomware attacks on food and agriculture industry have doubled in 2025. Ransomware attacks on the food and agriculture sector have surged in 2025, with 84 incidents reported in the first quarter alone—more than double the number from the same period in 2024, according to Food and Ag-ISAC director Jonathan Braley. Speaking at the RSA Conference last week, Braley highlighted the lack of transparency around these attacks and called for more industry collaboration to share solutions. While the well-known ransomware gang Clop was a major contributor due to its exploitation of a file-sharing service, other groups like RansomHub and Akira continue to target the sector aggressively. Legacy systems, industrial control vulnerabilities, and fragile supply chains make food and agriculture particularly appealing to attackers. Ransomware now accounts for over half of all cyber threats facing the industry. The Record Trump says he’d give TikTok another extension. In a recent NBC interview, President Donald Trump said he’s open to giving TikTok a reprieve if a deal isn’t reached with its Chinese parent company, ByteDance—despite previously trying to ban the app over national security concerns. Trump expressed personal affection for TikTok, saying it has a “little warm spot in my heart” and citing its popularity among young voters. He suggested that he may offer China concessions like tariff reductions to facilitate a deal. Although legislation mandates ByteDance divest TikTok by April, Trump has twice extended the deadline. His softer stance reflects a shift from his earlier position, likely influenced by the app’s broad appeal, especially among younger Americans. Axios Bloomberg Privacy regulator fines TikTok $600 million over EU data transfers to China . Ireland’s data privacy regulator has fined TikTok €530 million ($600 million) for violating the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) by mishandling European users’ personal data transfers to China and failing to meet transparency standards. The Irish Data Protection Commission (DPC) said TikTok did not adequately assess or safeguard against Chinese government access to the data and provided misleading information during the investigation. The regulator ordered TikTok to correct its data practices within six months or face a suspension of data transfers to China. This follows a €345 million fine TikTok received in 2023 for mishandling children’s data. The Record Security Week New York Times Associated Press