8:18 America/Chicago Thursday, June 26

THE TOP STORIES Report for Thursday, June 26, 2025 Trump says U.S. and Iran will talk next week. Iran’s Khamenei says U.S. bombing ‘did not achieve anything.’ Europe wins over Trump on with NATO defense spending boost. Trump calls Putin the ‘More Difficult’ partner in ending Ukraine war. Ukraine’s top general says Russian advances in northern Sumy stopped.

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES Opinion: Abduction and Uranium Enrichment are North Korea’s Sticking Points. Ambassador Joseph DeTrani argues that North Korea’s unresolved abductions of Japanese citizens and its uranium enrichment program remain critical barriers to diplomatic progress. He recounts North Korea’s 2002 admission to abducting 13 Japanese citizens, eight of whom were declared dead—claims that infuriated Japan after forensic tests invalidated returned remains. Meanwhile, a 2002 meeting between U.S. envoy James Kelly and North Korean officials revealed Pyongyang’s clandestine uranium enrichment efforts, which continue today. These two issues—human rights abuses and nuclear defiance—have poisoned relations ever since. Despite past diplomatic efforts like the 1994 Agreed Framework and the 2019 Hanoi Summit, North Korea refuses to include uranium enrichment in any denuclearization deal. DeTrani notes the country’s increasing nuclear and missile capabilities, its growing naval ambitions, and its defense pact with Russia, including direct support in Ukraine. He calls for global attention, especially ahead of a United Nations symposium on the abduction issue on June 26. The Cipher Brief

U.S. STRIKES IRAN Trump Says U.S. and Iran Will Talk Next Week, Mideast War Over for Now. At a NATO summit press conference on Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran will meet next week to discuss a potential diplomatic path forward, following a fragile ceasefire that ended 12 days of war between Iran and Israel. Trump downplayed the need for a nuclear deal, claiming U.S. airstrikes had “obliterated” Iran’s enrichment facilities. His envoy, Steve Witkoff, said Iran appears ready for comprehensive talks. Iran confirmed its sites were heavily damaged and signaled openness to diplomacy. However, Tehran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency remains suspended. The upcoming talks could shape the future of regional stability and nuclear oversight amid lingering tensions and unresolved concerns about uranium stockpiles. Bloomberg Axios Reuters Khamenei says U.S. bombing of Iran ‘did not achieve anything.’ In his first public remarks since the Israel-Iran ceasefire, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed U.S. claims about the effectiveness of recent airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. In a video message released Thursday, Khamenei said the U.S. bombing campaign “did not achieve anything” and accused President Trump of exaggerating the damage, stating, “Anyone who heard his remarks could tell there was a different reality behind his words — they could do nothing.” His comments contrast sharply with Trump’s assertion that the sites were “obliterated.” Khamenei’s reappearance followed speculation about his safety, as Israel had targeted Iranian military and nuclear leaders. This was the first time since becoming Supreme Leader in 1989 that Khamenei went into hiding during a war. The conflicting narratives about the strikes’ effectiveness come as Western intelligence debates whether Iran’s nuclear program was significantly set back or merely delayed by a few months. Khamenei also congratulated “the great nation of Iran” for its “victory over the fake Zionist regime,” in remarks reported by the state-run IRNA news agency.“Despite all that noise, and with all those claims, the Zionist regime almost collapsed and was crushed under the blows of the Islamic Republic,” Khamenei said. Financial Times CNN Trump administration in overdrive to control Iran strike narrative. President Trump is waging a full-scale campaign to control public perception of the U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear program, insisting they “obliterated” key facilities. He has fiercely disputed a leaked preliminary assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency that downplayed the extent of the damage. He called the leak an act of sabotage and accused critics of undermining what he calls a “perfect mission.” To reinforce his claims, Trump announced a press conference for Thursday, where Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and top military officials will present updated findings. Intelligence chiefs, including Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, have since supported Trump’s view, citing new intelligence that the program has been “severely damaged.” The White House also released a statement citing Israeli officials and nuclear experts saying there was extensive damage to Iran’s nuclear program. Axios Reuters Associated Press New York Times Politico Uproar Over Leaked Intelligence Underlines Murky View of Iran Strike. The leaked DIA report—based on satellite imagery and signals intelligence gathered just 24 hours after the strikes—estimated only a short-term setback to Iran’s nuclear program of a few months. It reportedly had not been coordinated with other intelligence agencies, was labeled low-confidence, and explicitly stated that a full assessment would take days or weeks. Experts emphasize that without on-site inspections, determining the true extent of the damage is nearly impossible. Additionally, the report did not address the status or location of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium – believed to be enough for 10 nuclear weapons – raising fears it was moved or hidden prior to the attacks. Former officials warn that some key enrichment infrastructure may have survived or gone undetected, while the U.S. strikes may have heightened Iran’s determination to pursue nuclear weapons. The true impact remains uncertain—and likely will for weeks or longer. Wall Street Journal Rubio Fleshes Out Trump’s Case That Iran Nuclear Capacity Was Eliminated. At the NATO summit on Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio laid out a detailed case supporting President Trump’s assertion that U.S. airstrikes inflicted a crippling blow to Iran’s nuclear program. Rubio focused on the destruction of Iran’s conversion facility in Isfahan, a critical site used to transform enriched uranium gas into uranium metal—a necessary step for producing a nuclear weapon. He also cited the destruction of an adjacent laboratory in Isfahan designed for manufacturing uranium metal warheads. Rubio argued that even if Iran retains a stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium, it cannot weaponize it without these now-destroyed facilities. He described the conversion plant as “wiped out,” saying satellite images showed the site completely blackened. While noting that Iran could eventually rebuild, he stressed the U.S. now knows the locations and can strike again if needed. New York Times Politico Iran Nuclear Program Suffered ‘Enormous Damage,’ Says UN Atomic Agency Chief. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi confirmed that U.S. and Israeli strikes caused “very, very, very considerable damage” to Iran’s three main nuclear facilities. “I think that annihilated is too much. But it has suffered enormous damage,” Grossi said. He warned that Iran’s threat to end cooperation with the agency could trigger a new crisis. While President Trump has claimed the attacks removed the need for a new nuclear deal, Grossi emphasized that Iran remains obligated under the Non-Proliferation Treaty to allow inspections. Iran’s parliament passed a bill to end cooperation with the IAEA, though it awaits presidential approval. Grossi said he has yet to receive a response from Iran’s foreign minister regarding a meeting to restore agency oversight. Wall Street Journal Pentagon launches probe into Iran strike intel leak. The Pentagon has opened a criminal investigation, in coordination with the FBI, into the leak of a classified Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report that assessed U.S. airstrikes did not significantly delay Iran’s nuclear program. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the leak at the NATO summit, stating the report was intended for internal battle damage assessment and criticizing the media for using it to undermine President Trump’s claims of success. The probe aims to identify who disclosed the preliminary assessment which was first reported by CNN and subsequently verified by other outlets. Politico EU Trump signals U.S. may ease Iran oil sanction enforcement to help rebuild country. At the NATO summit on Wednesday, President Donald Trump suggested the U.S. may ease enforcement of oil sanctions on Iran to support the country’s reconstruction following recent military conflict. “They’re going to need money to put that country back into shape. We want to see that happen,” Trump said, signaling a softer stance while maintaining that the U.S. has not abandoned its maximum pressure campaign. The White House later clarified that sanctions remain in place. Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, framed the remarks as a message to China—Iran’s top oil customer—saying the U.S. seeks cooperation, not economic harm. He added, “We’re interested in working together with you… and hopefully that becomes a signal to the Iranians.” Reuters The latest U.S. foray into military action has a name: The Trump Doctrine. President Trump’s decision to launch airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites has been framed by Vice President J.D. Vance as the emergence of a new “Trump Doctrine.” According to Vance, the doctrine involves three steps: identify a clear American interest, attempt diplomacy, and if that fails, apply overwhelming military force—then exit before getting bogged down. Critics argue the term is more rhetorical than substantive, calling Trump’s foreign policy instinctual rather than doctrinal. The move has stirred unease among isolationist Republicans and Trump loyalists who worry about a prolonged conflict. Trump, however, defended the strikes, saying Iran “will not have a nuclear weapon,” and emphasized that talks would resume soon. Analysts caution it’s too early to judge the outcome, with one noting the effectiveness of the doctrine depends on whether it leads to lasting constraints on Iran’s nuclear ambitions or simply delays them without real strategic gains. Reuters France reveals it intercepted Iranian drones targeting Israel ahead of ceasefire . French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu confirmed that France’s military intercepted fewer than 10 Iranian drones aimed at Israel during the recent 12-day conflict, using ground-to-air systems and Rafale fighter jets. Speaking during a parliamentary debate, Lecornu noted that Tehran launched around 400 ballistic missiles and 1,000 drones at Israel during the fighting. The conflict began when Israel struck Iran on June 13, targeting its nuclear infrastructure and killing senior military officials and scientists. Iran’s retaliation killed at least 28 people in Israel and caused widespread damage. Times of Israel Reuters

THE AMERICAS ‘Leaks are a problem’: Congress up in arms over Trump’s move to limit intel sharing. Lawmakers have expressed fury following reports on the Trump administration’s decision to limit the classified intel that it shares with Congress, in the wake of an alleged leak of intel related to Iran. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer criticized the White House, questioning what the president is “hiding,” while GOP Speaker Mike Johnson warned there will be consequences for such breaches. Several Democrats said they view the restriction as an effort to block oversight. Meanwhile, some Republicans defended the decision, blaming leaks on Democratic members and expressing concern that briefers no longer trust Congress. Axios ABC News The Hill Was It Scrap Metal or an Alien Spacecraft? The Army Asked an Elite Defense Lab to Investigate. In 2022, the Pentagon launched an investigation into claims that the U.S. government secretly possessed extraterrestrial technology. Led by laser and materials physicist Sean Kirkpatrick, the inquiry explored sensational reports, including Lockheed Martin testing alleged UFO debris and efforts by figures like former Pentagon official Luis Elizondo to expose covert alien programs. The investigation traced a mysterious metal sample from a 1996 radio show to military labs, where it was ultimately found to be of earthly origin, likely from World War II. Despite claims from former officials about alien biologics, space lasers, and reverse-engineering programs, Kirkpatrick’s team found no credible evidence of extraterrestrial technology. The probe, which attracted both attention and threats from UFO enthusiasts, concluded in 2023 with a public report debunking the allegations. Kirkpatrick later retired, citing a culture of circular reporting and conspiracy within the UFO community that hindered serious investigation. Wall Street Journal Trump wants more drones and missiles, fewer F-35s in $893 billion budget request . President Donald Trump’s proposed 2026 defense budget holds spending steady at $892.6 billion, but shifts priorities. The budget includes a 3.8% pay raise for service members and increases investments in long-range munitions and unmanned systems, citing lessons from Ukraine. However, it slashes requests for F-35 jets and Navy ships and cuts over 7,000 Navy civilian jobs. Most funding for Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense shield is excluded, with a separate bill proposing a $25 billion initial boost for the program. The budget reflects Trump’s focus on countering China and revitalizing U.S. defense manufacturing. Reuters U.S. military to establish two new buffer zones along Mexico border. The Pentagon is expanding its military presence at the U.S.-Mexico border by creating two new national defense areas in Arizona and Texas, bringing the total to four such zones. These areas, now part of Marine Corps Air Station Yuma and Joint Base San Antonio, will be patrolled by U.S. troops who can detain migrants until Border Patrol arrives. This move follows earlier expansions near Fort Bliss in Texas and along 200 miles of the New Mexico border. Despite a significant decline in migrant crossings under the Trump administration, thousands of active-duty troops, along with spy planes and Navy ships, have been deployed. The buildup, directed by President Trump, is aimed at militarizing the border, with forces from elite units like the Fourth Infantry Division forming the core of the ground operation. New York Times Reuters CNN ABC News China takes action on key U.S. fentanyl demands . In the past few days, China has taken several steps to address fentanyl-related concerns, signaling possible cooperation with U.S. demands amid ongoing tensions. These moves follow Washington’s imposition of 20% tariffs on Chinese goods over Beijing’s alleged failure to curb the export of precursor chemicals linked to fentanyl, which has caused hundreds of thousands of American overdose deaths. Though China has accused the U.S. of politicizing the issue, it has now added two key fentanyl precursors, 4-piperidone and 1-boc-4-piperidone, to its controlled substances list, and reported significant drug seizures, arrests, and prosecutions this year. The most recent efforts came after a meeting between U.S. Ambassador David Perdue and China’s Minister of Public Security. While China frames its actions as independent and in line with international conventions, experts note that political pressure from Washington continues to shape Beijing’s approach. Reuters China’s top security agency mocks CIA Chinese spy recruitment drive as ‘farcical’. China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) has sharply criticized the CIA’s recent efforts to recruit Chinese agents, calling it a desperate attempt to justify its budget amid U.S. government cutbacks. In a rare bilingual post on social media, the MSS dismissed the CIA’s recruitment videos as “clumsy,” politically provocative, and “slanderous,” accusing Washington of exploiting internal dissatisfaction in China to undermine the Communist Party. Beijing views the campaign as a serious threat to national interests and part of a broader American strategy to fuel the “China threat” narrative. The MSS also claimed the CIA is struggling with internal challenges and declining influence, and argued that past intelligence failures in China reveal the ineffectiveness of such tactics. South China Morning Post U.S. blocks money transfers by 3 Mexico-based financial institutions accused of aiding cartels . The U.S. Treasury Department has sanctioned three Mexico-based financial institutions—CIBanco, Intercam Banco, and Vector Casa de Bolsa—for allegedly laundering millions of dollars for drug cartels and facilitating payments for fentanyl precursor chemicals. The sanctions aim to sever these banks’ access to the U.S. financial system, though officials declined to name the American institutions involved or clarify the broader impact. The banks are accused of supporting major cartels like Jalisco New Generation, Sinaloa, and Gulf, with Vector also allegedly helping funnel bribes to former Mexican Security Secretary Genaro García Luna, who last year was handed a 38-year prison sentence by a U.S. court. The move is part of the Trump administration’s intensified campaign to curb fentanyl trafficking and cartel operations. Associated Press Gunmen kill 12 in brutal attack on celebration in Mexico’s Guanajuato state . Twelve people were killed and around 20 injured in a mass shooting during a street celebration in Irapuato, Guanajuato, Mexico, honoring St. John the Baptist. Gunmen killed two women, eight men, and a 17-year-old. The attack, which follows a similar shooting last month that killed seven at a church-organized event, is under investigation. President Claudia Sheinbaum condemned the violence. Guanajuato remains Mexico’s most violent state, plagued by conflict between criminal groups vying for control, such as the Santa Rosa de Lima gang and the Jalisco New Generation cartel. With 1,435 homicides in the first five months of the year, the state’s death toll is more than double that of any other in the country. Associated Press France 24 Al Jazeera Venezuela’s former-spymaster and general pleads guilty to U.S. drug trafficking charges . Hugo Carvajal, the former head of Venezuela’s military intelligence and a close ally of the late President Hugo Chávez, pleaded guilty in U.S. federal court to charges of narcoterrorism and drug trafficking. Prosecutors accused Carvajal of helping lead a drug cartel that worked with Colombia’s FARC guerrilla group to produce and ship large quantities of cocaine to the U.S. He admitted to four criminal counts, including conspiracy to import cocaine and weapons offenses, and now faces a potential life sentence. Carvajal, nicknamed “El Pollo,” was extradited from Spain in 2023 after more than a decade of U.S. efforts to bring him to trial. His sentencing is set for October in New York. Reuters Deutsche Welle Honduras and U.S. discuss immigration, security after tense start under Trump. U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem met with Honduran President Xiomara Castro on Wednesday to discuss immigration and security, marking the first high-level engagement since tensions flared under President Trump. The two governments signed a letter of intent to share biometric data and an unspecified agreement regarding migrants seeking protection in Honduras. Noem’s visit follows strained relations over Castro’s suspension of an extradition treaty with the U.S. and her threats to end military cooperation if mass deportations resumed. Though ties appear to be warming, analysts remain skeptical of the apparent turnaround. Noem is also touring the region, having signed migration and security agreements with Costa Rica and Panama aimed at improving border control, data-sharing, and repatriation. Associated Press Global cocaine boom keeps setting new records, UN report says . The global cocaine trade reached record highs in 2023, becoming the fastest-growing illicit drug market, according to the UN’s Office on Drugs and Crime. Driven largely by a surge in coca bush cultivation in Colombia and updated yield estimates, illegal cocaine production rose by about one-third to over 3,700 tons. Cocaine use also climbed to 25 million users worldwide, up from 17 million a decade earlier, with North America, Europe, and South America remaining the largest markets. The report also highlighted the growing synthetic drug market, particularly amphetamine-type stimulants and synthetic opioids like fentanyl, with seizures of these substances hitting new global records. Reuters Ecuador recaptures ‘Fito,’ the notorious gang leader wanted by U.S., in army operation . Ecuadorian authorities have recaptured José Adolfo “Fito” Macías, the nation’s most infamous drug trafficker, more than a year after he escaped from a maximum-security prison he once dominated. Tracked with U.S. support, Macías was found hiding in a basement in Manta. He led the powerful Los Choneros gang, allied with Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel and the Albanian mafia, and oversaw massive cocaine trafficking into the U.S., for which he is indicted in Brooklyn federal court. His 2024 escape, reportedly aided by internal corruption, sparked a national crisis and a government crackdown. President Daniel Noboa, who has pledged to restore security, called Macías’s arrest a major victory and vowed more arrests. Meanwhile, another drug boss, “Fede,” recently escaped, underscoring Ecuador’s ongoing struggle with gang control. . Ecuadorian authorities have recaptured José Adolfo “Fito” Macías, the nation’s most infamous drug trafficker, more than a year after he escaped from a maximum-security prison he once dominated. Tracked with U.S. support, Macías was found hiding in a basement in Manta. He led the powerful Los Choneros gang, allied with Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel and the Albanian mafia, and oversaw massive cocaine trafficking into the U.S., for which he is indicted in Brooklyn federal court. His 2024 escape, reportedly aided by internal corruption, sparked a national crisis and a government crackdown. President Daniel Noboa, who has pledged to restore security, called Macías’s arrest a major victory and vowed more arrests. Meanwhile, another drug boss, “Fede,” recently escaped, underscoring Ecuador’s ongoing struggle with gang control. Washington Post South China Morning Post CNN Associated Press

THE UKRAINE UPDATE Trump Calls Putin the ‘More Difficult’ Partner in Ending Ukraine War. At the NATO summit in The Hague on Wednesday, President Trump said that Russian President Vladimir Putin is the “more difficult” leader to persuade to end the war in Ukraine. “It’s more difficult than people would have any idea. Vladimir Putin has been more difficult,” Trump said. “Vladimir Putin really has to end that war.” Trump said he plans to speak with Putin soon, though no date was provided. The comment marked a notable shift from his earlier rhetoric, which placed more blame on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump instead praised Zelensky on Wednesday, saying, “He’s fighting a brave battle. It’s a tough battle.” Trump also reversed years of NATO criticism, declaring, “It’s not a rip-off,” and emphasizing the U.S. leadership role in the alliance. ”They want to protect their country, and they need the United States. And without the United States, it’s not going to be the same.” Wall Street Journal Trump Says U.S. to Consider More Air-Defense Batteries for Ukraine. At the NATO summit on Wednesday, President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a 45-minute meeting described by Zelensky as “long and substantive.” The two discussed paths to a ceasefire, peace efforts, and Ukraine’s urgent need for air defense. Trump said he would consider providing additional U.S.-made Patriot missile batteries, calling them Ukraine’s top request, but noted their scarcity: “We’re going to see if we can make some available… They do want that more than any other thing.” Trump has signaled he won’t renew current U.S. military aid funding set to expire this summer, but Zelensky is seeking permission to purchase weapons instead. He also urged Trump to tighten sanctions on Russia. Though past relations were strained, Trump remarked that Zelensky “couldn’t have been nicer,” signaling a warming tone as talks with Russia remain stalled and missile attacks on Ukraine intensify. Bloomberg All NATO, including the U.S., is ‘totally committed’ to keeping Ukraine in the fight, Rutte says. At the conclusion of the NATO summit in The Hague, Secretary General Mark Rutte declared Wednesday that all NATO members, including the United States, are “totally committed” to ensuring Ukraine remains in the fight against Russia’s invasion. He stressed that NATO’s goal is not only to support Ukraine militarily but to ensure any eventual ceasefire or peace agreement is durable and enforceable. While European nations will shoulder a larger share of military aid, the U.S. will stay deeply involved through intelligence-sharing and operational support, including air defense systems. Rutte pushed back on concerns about U.S. commitment under President Trump, saying recent discussions in Washington confirmed strong ongoing support for Ukraine. He noted Europe’s increased defense spending enables a more balanced burden-sharing without creating gaps Moscow could exploit. Despite a gradual drawdown in U.S. capabilities in Europe, Rutte emphasized, “there is total clarity that Ukraine will not be left behind.” Reuters Ukraine’s top general says Ukraine stopped Russian advances in northern Sumy region. Ukrainian forces have halted Russian advances in the northern Sumy region, stabilizing the front line, according to a June 26 statement by Ukraine’s top general, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi. Russia had aimed to create a “buffer zone” in Sumy after claiming to expel Ukrainian troops from Russia’s Kursk region in April. Following early June incursions, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported Ukraine had pushed back and recaptured the village of Andriivka. Syrskyi emphasized the need for rapid reinforcement, including improved fortifications and anti-drone defenses. He urged faster implementation of engineering and defensive barriers to solidify Ukraine’s position in the strategically important border zone. Reuters North Korea may send more troops to Russia in July or August for Ukraine war, Seoul says. South Korea’s intelligence agency believes North Korea may send additional troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine as early as July or August, lawmakers revealed after a closed-door briefing. The National Intelligence Service (NIS) also confirmed Pyongyang continues to supply artillery and missiles to Moscow. In exchange, North Korea is reportedly receiving Russian technical support for satellite launches and missile guidance systems. The assessment is based on signs of troop mobilization in North Korea and a recent visit by a senior Russian security official to Pyongyang. Both countries recently acknowledged the presence of North Korean troops in Russia, citing their mutual defense pact signed in June 2024. Reuters Yonhap News Agency Ukraine, European rights body sign accord for tribunal on Russian aggression. Ukraine and the Council of Europe signed an agreement in Strasbourg to establish a special tribunal focused on prosecuting senior Russian officials for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the accord as a critical step toward ensuring justice for all war criminals, including Russian President Vladimir Putin. The tribunal, endorsed by the Council’s 46 members in May, is intended to complement the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has already issued an arrest warrant for Putin. Zelensky acknowledged that building the tribunal will require extensive political and legal cooperation but stressed its importance in addressing the legal gaps left by existing international mechanisms. Reuters Gaming the Air Raids in Kyiv: A Night in a Capital at War. In Kyiv, nightly Russian drone and missile attacks of increasing intensity force residents into a tense routine of balancing normal life with constant threat. A Wall Street Journal reporter describes the grim rhythm: monitoring air-raid alerts, preparing a shelter go-bag, and retreating to Cold War-era bunkers as Iranian-designed Shahed drones swarm the skies. On one night, after waves of attacks, she joins dozens of others in a Soviet-built shelter—sharing updates, snacks, and a sense of quiet solidarity. Ballistic missiles strike nearby, shaking the walls and fraying nerves. As dawn breaks, the smell of smoke lingers. That night, 28 people were killed and over 140 wounded. The morning brings exhaustion, grief, and a chilling new normal: Kyivans greeting each other with, “Was it loud where you were?” Wall Street Journal Financial Times With no end to war in sight, Ukraine’s economy teeters on the edge. The conflict continues to grind on, threatening Ukraine’s fragile economy. The Ukrainian economy survives largely on Western aid, which is expected to fall short–about half of the needed $40 billion annually– in 2026. Officials now forecast minimal growth and difficult budget constraints, with few areas left to cut. A much-touted U.S.-Ukraine resource development deal offers long-term potential, but its implementation is years away and shrouded in secrecy. Business confidence has plummeted, with most investment frozen pending a ceasefire. Nevertheless, some sectors—banking, renewables, defense production—show resilience. Ukraine’s survival now hinges on maintaining Western support and managing investor anxiety amid ongoing Russian airstrikes and territorial losses. As one businessman put it, the outlook has shifted to a month-by-month survival mode. Washington Post Russian air defense units destroy two drones headed for Moscow, mayor says. Russian air defense units shot down two drones targeting Moscow, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said early Thursday. Debris was being examined, and Vnukovo International Airport temporarily suspended flights due to the threat. Airports along the Volga River also imposed brief restrictions. Across Russia, over 40 drones were reportedly destroyed in the border regions of Voronezh and Bryansk. The Defense Ministry confirmed that 18 drones were intercepted within three hours across central and southern regions earlier in the evening. Reuters Russia’s Medvedev calls EU an enemy, says Ukrainian membership would be dangerous. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev declared the European Union a direct enemy of Russia, warning that Ukrainian membership in the EU now poses a serious threat to Russian security. Once considered a less provocative issue than NATO membership, Ukraine’s EU accession is now viewed by Moscow as equally dangerous. Medvedev accused the EU of transforming from a peaceful economic bloc into a politicized, militarized entity hostile to Russia. He wrote, “Brussels today is a real enemy of Russia… stuffed with weapons.” Despite this stance, he said Russia could still engage in bilateral ties with select EU states, though he did not name them. Reuters Ukrainian ‘traitor’ behind Russian missile guidance system charged with treason, SBU says. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) has charged former Ukrainian defense engineer Oleh Borsuk with treason in absentia for aiding Russia’s missile targeting systems. Borsuk, who fled to Russia in 2009, now serves as deputy director at Moscow’s Navis design bureau. He is accused of overseeing the development of satellite navigation systems used in Russian missiles, including the Kh-101, Kh-59, Kalibr, and Iskander models. In 2023 alone, under his leadership, nearly 3,200 satellite navigation units were produced, including those for Iskander tactical missile systems, the SBU said. These systems were used in deadly attacks, including the July 2024 missile strike on Kyiv’s Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital and the June 2025 assault that killed 30 people. Borsuk remains in Russia, and Ukrainian authorities are pursuing legal avenues to bring him to justice. Kyiv Independent ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, June 25. President Trump said it’s possible that Russia will pursue territorial ambitions beyond Ukraine, aligning with ISW’s assessment that Moscow is preparing for future conflict with NATO and setting the stage for further aggression against non-NATO former Soviet states. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that Russia has shown no serious intent to negotiate peace and is instead using battlefield tactics to justify its demands. The Kremlin is deploying Dmitry Medvedev’s inflammatory rhetoric to erode Western support for Ukraine by portraying the European Union as a militarized anti-Russian bloc. Russian officials continue to use vague claims about NATO expansion and alleged discrimination against Russian speakers to justify and adapt their wartime demands. Russia is rapidly expanding its missile production with help from Belarus and China, signaling preparation for a prolonged war. NATO leaders reaffirmed commitments to Ukraine and collective defense, pledging increased defense spending and air-defense support. European countries, including Norway, Denmark, and the UK, announced new military aid and defense-industrial cooperation with Ukraine. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian drone production facility in Rostov Oblast on June 24, targeting key military-industrial infrastructure. Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Borova and Velyka Novosilka, and Russian forces advanced in Vovchansk and near Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE Europe Wins Over Trump on Defense With NATO Spending Boost. At the NATO summit in The Hague, leaders of all 32 member states agreed to eventually raise defense spending to 5% of GDP and reaffirmed their “ironclad commitment” to collective defense amid heightened threats from Russia. The agreement marks a major win for President Trump, who long criticized European underspending, and for NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who helped secure U.S. support. Trump, initially skeptical of NATO, reversed course after discussions with allies. “I left here differently,” he said at a press conference following the summit. “It’s not a rip off and we’re here to help them protect their countries.” Germany pledged to build Europe’s strongest conventional military, while Spain and Slovakia expressed doubts about meeting the target. The declaration omitted a firm commitment to Ukraine’s NATO membership but affirmed support for its defense. The spending pledge, split between core military funding and related investments, will be reviewed in 2029 and includes Ukraine aid. Critics warn the ambitious target may strain nations already burdened by public debt. Bloomberg How ‘Daddy’ Trump Learned to Love NATO. President Trump’s stance on NATO shifted dramatically during the alliance’s 2025 summit in The Hague, where flattery, a royal reception, and a major defense spending commitment helped win him over. Trump even got a pass on his profanity from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who compared the Iran-Israel situation to disciplining children, explaining, “Daddy has to sometimes use strong language.” Trump left the summit praising NATO and backing its mutual defense pledge, after members agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP. Rutte and other leaders worked to satisfy Trump, even as some critics worried the summit catered too much to him rather than focusing on Russia’s military resurgence. Still, the shift marks a rare moment of alignment between Trump and NATO, though doubts remain about lasting unity and strategic focus. Wall Street Journal Reuters Euronews

Trump Threatens to Double Spanish Tariffs Over NATO Spending. At the NATO summit on Wednesday, President Trump sharply criticized Spain for refusing to adopt the alliance’s new 5% GDP defense spending target and threatened to double tariffs on Spanish exports. He claimed the U.S. is negotiating a trade deal with Spain and vowed, “They’re going to pay more money this way.” Spain’s government dismissed the threat, noting that trade negotiations are handled by the European Commission, not individual European Union members. Trump’s comments rattled markets, pushing Spain’s stock index lower. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez pledged to meet NATO’s military goals but refused the 5% spending threshold, committing only to 2.1%. Trump’s broader trade stance has already imposed heavy tariffs on EU goods, and the EU is preparing retaliatory duties targeting politically sensitive U.S. exports. Bloomberg Axios The Telegraph How NATO Military Spending Stacks Up Against the U.S. and Russia. European NATO members and Canada, long trailing the U.S. in defense spending and military capabilities, have pledged historic increases to close the gap amid growing threats from Russia. At this week’s NATO summit, they committed to raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% for nonlethal defense investments—marking the alliance’s first explicit target for such spending. Although Europe collectively outspends Russia, Moscow allocates a much larger share of its economy to defense and gains more from each ruble due to local production costs. NATO’s European forces boast significant manpower and conventional weaponry but face critical shortfalls in modern capabilities like long-range missiles, air defense, and command systems. Without U.S. leadership, their operational cohesion remains uncertain. These new commitments aim to boost readiness and address those weaknesses. Wall Street Journal

Rubio surprises NATO allies with softer rhetoric on Russia sanctions. At the NATO summit, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio surprised European allies by publicly softening his stance on Russia sanctions, despite acknowledging privately that Russia is obstructing peace in Ukraine. During a closed-door dinner with NATO foreign ministers, Rubio said the Senate may soon consider new sanctions after passing Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” However, in a public interview, Rubio cautioned that imposing harsher sanctions now could undermine ceasefire negotiations, suggesting Trump will decide at the right moment. European officials expressed frustration, arguing stronger U.S. pressure on Russia is essential to ending the war. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski challenged Rubio directly, criticizing Russia’s ongoing drone attacks and urging that violations not go unpunished. Rubio explained the administration is working with Congress to shape a sanctions bill that maintains presidential flexibility. While some diplomats see Rubio as privately clear-eyed on Russia, they remain concerned about mixed messages and Trump’s reluctance to confront Putin more forcefully. Politico EU EU Commission to propose dedicated defense and space investment in new fund . The European Commission plans to allocate part of its upcoming European Competitiveness Fund to defence, resilience, and space, according to a letter from Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. The initiative will be included in the Commission’s 2028–2034 budget proposal and aims to address a significant gap caused by years of underinvestment in defence. The proposed “Resilience, Defence and Space” window within the fund is intended to support strategic sectors and innovation. EU leaders will discuss the proposal at a summit in Brussels, following the NATO summit. Reuters UK minister warned of threat from China when Chagos deal expires . Senior British lawmakers have warned Foreign Secretary David Lammy that the U.K. must prepare for future security risks linked to China as part of its £3.4 billion agreement with Mauritius over the Chagos Islands. Under the May deal, the U.K. will relinquish sovereignty of the archipelago to Mauritius but retain its key military base on Diego Garcia for 99 years. The House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee cautioned that the agreement’s renewal terms could leave Britain vulnerable, especially amid China’s growing military ambitions in the Indian Ocean. Critics argue the deal may compromise long-term strategic interests, and offers poor value to taxpayers. The government was urged to remain vigilant and to clearly communicate the strategic benefits of the base to counter potential public opposition and foreign influence. Politico EU Czech authorities detain 5 teens over online radicalization by IS and charge 2 with terror plot . Between February and June, Czech authorities detained five teenagers, most of them under 18, for being radicalized online by the Islamic State (IS) group. Two have been charged for attempting to firebomb a synagogue in Brno in January 2024, though the device failed to explode. The teens face charges including hate crimes, supporting terrorism, and attempted terrorist acts. The suspects had promoted extremist content targeting Jews, LGBTQ+ people, and minorities, and participated in online groups recruiting for IS fighters in Syria. Weapons, including machetes, knives and gas pistols, were seized in raids across the Czech Republic and Austria. Officials said the teens were radicalized solely online, with no ties to local Muslim communities. Czech, Austrian, British, Slovak, and EU authorities, including Europol, collaborated in the investigation. Intelligence officials warned of the growing threat of online youth radicalization by extremist networks. Associated Press German prosecutor seeks arrest warrant on terror charges of IS-linked Syrian national who allegedly stabbed 4 . Germany’s top prosecutor has issued a new arrest warrant for Mahmoud M., a Syrian man accused of stabbing and critically injuring four people in the city of Bielefeld on May 18, 2025. Prosecutors allege he is a member of the Islamic State and carried out the attack as part of a jihadist mission to kill random civilians in Germany. Mahmoud M. reportedly joined ISIS in Raqqa, Syria, by late 2014 and embraced an Islamist-jihadist ideology. He was arrested a day after the attack and has been in custody since. The case, now under federal jurisdiction, includes charges of attempted murder, dangerous bodily harm, and terrorism. . Germany’s top prosecutor has issued a new arrest warrant for Mahmoud M., a Syrian man accused of stabbing and critically injuring four people in the city of Bielefeld on May 18, 2025. Prosecutors allege he is a member of the Islamic State and carried out the attack as part of a jihadist mission to kill random civilians in Germany. Mahmoud M. reportedly joined ISIS in Raqqa, Syria, by late 2014 and embraced an Islamist-jihadist ideology. He was arrested a day after the attack and has been in custody since. The case, now under federal jurisdiction, includes charges of attempted murder, dangerous bodily harm, and terrorism. Associated Press Times of Israel

THE MIDDLE EAST Iran turns to internal crackdown in wake of 12-day war . Following its 12-day war with Israel, Iran has launched a sweeping internal crackdown marked by mass arrests, executions, and heightened military presence, especially in Kurdish regions. Iranian security forces have reportedly arrested over 700 individuals since the conflict began, with many accused of spying for Israel. Three Kurds were executed near the Turkish border. Revolutionary Guard and Basij units have been deployed, with schools and roads repurposed for military use. Activists report house-to-house searches, expanded checkpoints, and surveillance in Kurdish provinces. Iranian authorities fear unrest from separatist groups, potential Israeli agents, and exiled opposition factions, particularly in Sunni Kurdish and Baluch communities. Despite public frustration, no large-scale protests have emerged. Rights activists are lying low, citing fear the regime may use the post-war climate to suppress dissent. Troops have also been deployed to border regions with Pakistan, Iraq, and Azerbaijan, with Iran’s security apparatus shifting full attention to domestic control. Reuters U.S. Makes New Push for Gaza Cease-Fire, Building on Iran Deal . The U.S. is renewing efforts to broker a cease-fire in Gaza and secure the release of remaining hostages, capitalizing on progress from a recent truce between Israel and Iran. On Wednesday, President Trump expressed optimism, saying a Gaza deal is “very close,” following briefings from envoy Steve Witkoff. While Israel and Hamas remain far apart—particularly over Hamas’s demand for a permanent end to the war—both sides have signaled renewed interest in talks, with possible meetings in Egypt soon. The latest proposal would involve Hamas releasing 10 living hostages and some bodies in exchange for a 60-day cease-fire and a larger Palestinian prisoner release, followed by negotiations toward a permanent cease-fire. Hamas has indicated it would accept U.S. guarantees that Israel will enter serious talks, fearing a repeat of past agreements that collapsed. Wall Street Journal Deutsche Welle BBC Trump urges cancellation of Netanyahu’s corruption trial . President Trump on Wednesday publicly called for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trial to be canceled or for Netanyahu to be pardoned, marking an unusual U.S. intervention in the legal affairs of a democratic ally. In a post on Truth Social, Trump criticized the trial as a “ridiculous Witch Hunt” and expressed outrage that it was continuing despite Israel’s recent war with Iran. Netanyahu faces charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, and has been accused of accepting expensive gifts and offering regulatory favors in exchange for favorable media coverage. Trump, praising Netanyahu’s wartime cooperation with the U.S., vowed America would now “save” him from prosecution. Axios Times of Israel Reuters Israeli attacks kill at least 21 people in Gaza, medics say. Israeli airstrikes and gunfire killed at least 21 Palestinians in Gaza on June 26, according to local health authorities, amid renewed efforts by Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S. to restart ceasefire talks. Nine people died in a strike on a school sheltering displaced families in Gaza City, and nine more were killed near a tent camp in Khan Younis. Three others were shot near a U.N. aid distribution route. Reuters Israeli troops kill 3 Palestinians after settlers attack West Bank town. Violence erupted in the West Bank town of Kafr Malik on Wednesday after dozens of Israeli settlers attacked the area, setting fire to property and sparking a clash that resulted in Israeli forces killing three Palestinians and wounding seven others, according to Palestinian health officials. The Israeli military said the settlers’ attack escalated into stone-throwing and gunfire, prompting troops to respond. Five Israeli suspects were arrested, and one Israeli officer was lightly injured. Palestinian officials condemned the violence, with a senior aide to President Mahmoud Abbas warning that Israel’s actions are driving the region toward further unrest. Separately, a Palestinian boy was killed by Israeli forces during a raid in another West Bank town earlier the same day. Reuters The Guardian

ASIA & OCEANIA China Is Still Choking Exports of Rare Earths Despite Pact With U.S. Despite a recent agreement with the U.S. to ease rare-earth magnet export restrictions, China is still severely limiting Western access to these critical materials. Western companies report lengthy delays, rejected applications, and burdensome license requirements—some demanding sensitive design and client data. China dominates global rare-earth magnet production, and these components are essential for electric vehicles, defense systems, and electronics. U.S. firms like Ford are rerouting supply chains and using costly airfreight to avoid factory shutdowns, while some manufacturers experiment with alternative materials. China denies it’s slow-walking approvals, but its six-month license limits and pressure on buyers not to stockpile suggest continued strategic control. Industry experts fear the restrictions may persist indefinitely, with larger state-connected Chinese firms receiving preferential treatment. The situation underscores China’s powerful leverage over global supply chains and raises concerns about long-term technological and manufacturing resilience in the West. Wall Street Journal How Trump’s Strike on Iran Might Affect China’s Calculus on Taiwan . President Trump’s recent decision to bomb Iranian nuclear sites, despite earlier opposing foreign military entanglements, has unsettled Chinese officials trying to gauge how he might respond to a Taiwan crisis. Trump’s unpredictable behavior—shifting from diplomacy to force—has made him a wild card for Beijing. Chinese analysts, wary of Trump’s willingness to use military power, are intensifying efforts to understand his red lines on Taipei. While the U.S. under Trump has supported Taiwan militarily, some fear he could be persuaded to soften that stance. China continues to pressure the sovereign island with military activity, and experts believe Beijing is preparing for a range of scenarios, from rising tensions to full conflict. Though Trump’s actions in Iran may signal strength, analysts note that a Taiwan conflict would pose far greater military challenges for the U.S. due to China’s formidable regional capabilities. New York Times China moving ‘breathtakingly fast’ in space military tech, posing threat to U.S.: commander. U.S. Space Force Commander General Stephen Whiting has warned that China is advancing “breathtakingly fast” in military space technologies, posing growing strategic threats to the U.S. He highlighted three main concerns: China’s expanding space-based targeting systems used to track and potentially strike U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific; its arsenal of anti-satellite weapons, including cyberattacks, jamming systems, lasers, and missiles; and its integration of space capabilities into the PLA’s traditional military branches to enhance precision and range. China now operates over 510 ISR satellites capable of reconnaissance, surveillance, and intelligence, and has launched hundreds more in recent years, including 260 space objects in 2024 alone. Whiting’s comments follow the prominent use of U.S. space assets in recent military operations, reinforcing fears that space has become a critical domain in future conflict. South China Morning Post Breaking Defense U.S. strike on Iran highlights China’s need for strategic bombers, analysts say . Analysts warn that strategic bombers remain essential and “irreplaceable” to the Chinese military, despite advances in missiles and sixth-generation fighters, due to their unmatched role in global strikes and nuclear deterrence. Observers point to the U.S. B-2 bombers’ recent long-range strike on Iranian nuclear sites as evidence of their value. While China’s next-generation H-20 stealth bomber is still in development, the upgraded H-6 series currently fills the gap. The U.S. and Russia have long maintained fleets of advanced strategic bombers, vital to their nuclear triads and capable of delivering large payloads over vast distances. China is catching up with innovations in both crewed and unmanned systems. Recent satellite images revealed a large Chinese stealth drone, possibly designed for long-range missions. Experts argue these advanced UAVs, combined with China’s growing missile capabilities, could reshape its ability to challenge American forces across the Pacific at a lower cost than traditional bombers. South China Morning Post Taiwan says it is determined to defend itself as China vows to boost combat readiness. Taiwan reaffirmed its determination to defend its sovereignty as China vowed to strengthen its military readiness in response to what it labels “separatist” actions by Taipei. Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo announced that next month’s Han Kuang military drills will simulate a Chinese invasion, including grey-zone incursions and amphibious landings. The exercises will feature U.S.-supplied HIMARS rocket systems and Taiwan’s Sky Sword missiles. China, angered by recent pro-sovereignty remarks from President Lai Ching-te, conducted joint patrols near Taiwan involving 21 aircraft and warships. Beijing called Lai’s statements provocative and reaffirmed its intent to use force if necessary to reclaim Taiwan. Taiwan’s government rejects China’s territorial claims and insists its future lies in the hands of its people. The ongoing escalation raises concerns of broader regional conflict, especially as China continues large-scale military demonstrations near the island. Reuters South Korea court rejects arrest warrant for ex-president Yoon .The Seoul Central District Court on Wednesday rejected a request to arrest former President Yoon Suk Yeol, who is under investigation for his failed attempt to impose martial law last year. The special prosecutor accused Yoon of obstruction and ignoring summons for questioning, though his legal team claims the probe is politically motivated. Yoon, already facing trial on insurrection charges, has agreed to appear for questioning on Saturday. He argues his December 3 martial law declaration was intended to warn against threats to democracy. The investigation was launched by a new special prosecutor appointed by liberal President Lee Jae-myung after Yoon’s ouster in April. Meanwhile, Yoon’s former defense minister, Kim Yong-hyun, had his detention extended over concerns he might destroy evidence. Reuters

AFRICA Ukraine turns to Africa in its struggle against Russia . Ukraine is expanding its diplomatic and humanitarian presence in Africa as part of a broader effort to counter Russia’s entrenched influence across the continent. Since Moscow’s 2022 invasion, Kyiv has opened eight new embassies in Africa, including in Mauritania, where it has delivered food aid to Malian refugees and offered military training. The strategy, led by envoy Maksym Subkh, focuses on framing Ukraine’s war as a shared struggle against imperialism and on showcasing its role in global food security. Kyiv’s “Grain from Ukraine” program has delivered nearly 300,000 tonnes of food aid to 12 African countries. Despite setbacks—including reduced trade, limited diplomatic resources, and a downgraded Africa summit—Ukraine’s outreach has raised its visibility. Still, analysts note gaps in strategy, such as the absence of an ambassador in Ethiopia, a key African Union hub. Russia remains far more embedded, with around 40 African missions and strong military and commercial ties. Reuters Gunmen kill 17 soldiers in northern Nigeria attacks . The Nigerian Army has confirmed that at least 17 soldiers were killed and four wounded during coordinated attacks by armed gangs on three army bases in Niger and Kaduna states on Tuesday. The attackers, known locally as bandits, engaged troops in hours-long firefights, with some ambushing soldiers outside the camps. The Army said that a counteroffensive, supported by the Air Force, inflicted significant losses on the assailants. These gangs are notorious for kidnappings, and for carrying out attacks on security forces, operating from camps in dense forests across several states. The military also continues to battle Boko Haram and ISIS-affiliated groups. Earlier this month, over 100 people were killed by armed men in Benue state, highlighting the broader security crisis. Deutsche Welle Associated Press Reuters Kenyan protests leave at least 16 dead, most killed by police. Sixteen people were killed, most by police, during nationwide anti-government protests in Kenya on Wednesday, marking the anniversary of last year’s deadly tax bill demonstrations. Thousands rallied in cities including Nairobi, where police used tear gas, water cannons, rubber bullets, and live ammunition to disperse crowds. Amnesty Kenya and the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights confirmed 16 deaths and over 400 injuries. More than 100 people were admitted to Nairobi’s main hospital, mostly with gunshot wounds. Authorities arrested at least 61 people. Protests also erupted in Mombasa and other towns, fueled by longstanding anger over police brutality and recent outrage over the death of blogger Albert Ojwang in police custody. Protesters attempted to march toward State House, and two news outlets were temporarily pulled off air for broadcasting the events live. Reuters The Guardian France 24 Associated Press Eritrea seeks to end mandate of UN expert investigating abuses, document shows . Eritrea is seeking to cancel the U.N. mandate of a special rapporteur investigating alleged human rights abuses in the country—a move that has alarmed Western diplomats who fear it could set a dangerous precedent for other states aiming to evade scrutiny and block accountability. The current expert, human rights lawyer Mohamed Abdelsalam Babiker, recently reported widespread violations in Eritrea, including arbitrary detention, enforced disappearances, and prolonged military conscription. Eritrea has long opposed the mandate, which was established in 2012 and renewed annually. This year, the country preemptively submitted a motion to terminate the mandate, gaining support from nations like Russia, Iran, and Sudan. Critics warn this is the first time a state has formally sought to end such a mandate via a U.N. Human Rights Council vote. A vote on the proposal is expected next month. Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS Cyber expert forecasts ‘quick and dirty’ Iranian cyberattacks in immediate aftermath of conflict . Sanaz Yashar, founder Zafran Security and a former Israeli intelligence officer, predicts that Iran’s cyber offensive units will respond to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran with “quick and dirty” operations. Subsequently, Yashar said, Iran will make an “investment in destructive cyber capabilities” that are “impactful and deniable.” She cautioned that “databases of naval, aviation and shipping information” could be targeted. In addition, a CISA source told Forbes that the agency would be hard pressed to respond to the flurry of cyber threats now facing the U.S. According to the source, “any new work is going to cause more strain on CISA because we aren’t even being given the resources needed for our current workload.” CISA public affairs director Marci McCarthy countered that view, saying that the agency “is focused squarely on executing its statutory mission: serving as the national coordinator for securing and protecting the nation’s critical infrastructure.” McCarthy added that currently there are “no specific credible threats against the homeland” while advising that critical infrastructure organizations should remain alert. Forbes

Iran’s ‘CyberAv3ngers’ threat actor focused on ‘psychological manipulation’ operations. According to cyber threat analysts, the Iran-linked CyberAv3ngers hacking group has moved from conducting technical system intrusions to psychological manipulation operations. The DomainTools threat intelligence said that Iran is seeking to shape online discussions as much as it is interested in penetrating targeted infrastructure. DomainTools said that a purported CyberAv3ngers hack of Israel’s Dorad power station never happened — deception and online influence were the goals. According to the report, “it was a performance — but one calibrated to sow fear and disrupt public trust,” adding that “CyberAv3ngers aren’t just breaching systems, they’re engineering beliefs.” DomainTools says the brand identity being created by CyberAv3ngers is aimed at psychological dominance. Three domain names that contain the hacking group’s identity haven’t hosted content or been used in malware deliveries, which DomainTools said could change depending on the outcome of the fragile Iran-Israel ceasefire. NextGov Maxar satellite imaging service monitors Iran aftermath, deploys new AI-enabled system . Maxar Intelligence, the Colorado-based satellite imaging firm that captured images of damage inflicted by the U.S. bombing of Iran’s underground nuclear facilities, is launching an AI-powered service called Sentry to outflank competitors in the commercial satellite imagery sector. The Sentry system uses machine learning to enable its network of 10 satellites to identify anomalies in monitored areas. Maxar has used Sentry’s AI-enabled capabilities under a contract with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency to provide coverage of industrial sites and detect planes, cars, and other vehicles. Maxar satellite images on Sunday showed craters and what appeared to be collapsed tunnel entrances at Iran’s Fordow uranium-enrichment site. In the wake of U.S. budget cuts to commercial imagery providers, Maxar CEO Smoot and executives from five other space companies told Congress in a June 16 letter that reducing remote sensing capabilities “while adversaries China, Russia and Iran rapidly expand their state-backed Earth observation infrastructure is ironic, shortsighted, and perilous.” Bloomberg Congress introducing bill banning Chinese, other countries’ AI models from U.S. government . A bipartisan group of legislators will introduce a bill in both houses of Congress on Wednesday known as the “No Adversarial AI Act.” The bill will prohibit US executive agencies from using Chinese-made AI models, including DeepSeek products, and follows reports from a senior U.S. official that DeepSeek is assisting Chinese military and intelligence operations. DeepSeek already has been banned by some U.S. companies and government agencies over data security concerns. The bill to be introduced in the House by Reps. John Moolenaar and Raja Krishnamoorthi, the chair and ranking member of a select committee on China, would establish a permanent framework for banning all Chinese AI models from U.S. executive agencies as well as those originating in Russia, Iran, and North Korea. In the Senate, the bill will be introduced by Senators Rick Scott and Gary Peters. Reuters Tech sector, Trump administration ties expand driven by Pentagon modernization programs . With the Trump administration’s push for military spending and modernization, the tech sector is shifting its focus towards defense work. Hardware firms are urging aerospace projects, satellites, drones, and autonomous vehicles, while software providers focus on data collection, management, and analysis tools for various DoD clients. AI firms, including those that claim “safety” as central to their missions, are now pursuing defense deals with a sense of patriotism replacing caution along the road to “superintelligence.” However, observers note the possibility that tech sector and public support for closer ties with the Pentagon could unravel if AI, autonomous vehicles, and other advanced tech figure prominently in Trump administration immigration enforcement efforts or in military deployments to American cities. Axios OpenAI researchers say China’s Zhipu AI startup seeking edge over rivals in Asia, Africa . OpenAI says that Zhipu AI, a Chinese competitor, is aggressively trying to embed Chinese AI systems in developing countries to gain an edge on Western rivals. Zhipu AI, which develops sovereign large language model infrastructure and private hardware in partnership with Huawei, is backed by the Chinese government and has investments from a unit of the Saudi oil giant, Aramco. OpenAI analysts say the Chinese firm’s advances in Africa and Asia have the goal of entrenching “Chinese systems and standards into emerging markets before U.S. or European rivals can.” Zhipu AI was added to the Commerce Department’s export control entity list in January, barring it from procuring U.S. components. Axios Reuters Japan joins NATO malware data sharing platform to reinforce cyber defenses against China . Japan has joined NATO’s Malware Information Sharing Platform (MISP) to share intelligence on cyberattacks, including malware used by China, North Korea, and Russia. Japan’s participation in MISP comes as Tokyo has adopted a strategy of active cyberdefense, which aims to detect and neutralize cyberattacks before they occur. In May, the Japanese parliament passed a law empowering the government to monitor peacetime communications for indicators of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. Malware information-sharing with NATO signals that Japan has both the capability and the infrastructure to mount defenses against cyberattacks while also contributing to NATO cybersecurity. Nikkei Cybersecurity researchers uncover ‘emerging threat‘ of China-linked ORB network . A network of Operational Relay Boxes (ORB’s) containing more than 1,000 devices recently was discovered to be under the control of a China-linked threat group. The network dubbed “Lapdogs” by the SecurityScorecard intelligence firm consists of infected small officer routers as well as IoT devices and IP cameras. Researchers have identified 162 distinct intrusion incidents as each intrusion adds more devices to the ORB. According to SecurityScorecard, more than one-third of the infections are located in the U.S., followed by Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. A SecurityScorecard analyst said the Lapdogs ORB shares its infrastructure and can host more than one intrusion campaign at a time, complicating the identification of threat actor motivations and post-attack activities. The analyst noted, “this also ultimately demonstrates how harmful and dangerous ORBs are as an emerging threat within the China-Nexus APT landscape.” CyberScoop French police arrest foursome suspected as BreachForums stolen data administrators . French authorities have arrested four individuals suspected of serving as administrators for BreachForums, one of the largest online stolen data marketplaces. The suspects, known by online pseudonyms ShinyHunters, Hollow, Noct, and Depressed, were taken into custody this week by France’s Cybercrime Brigade (BL2C). Charges against the alleged marketplace administrators include conducting high-profile data breaches against companies such as retailer Boulanger, the SFR telecommunications vendor, and the French Football Federation. Although BreachForums was taken down in May 2024, users including the newly arrested French suspects reportedly attempted to restore its operations under new infrastructure. The site recently was mentioned by cybersecurity researchers for providing an outlet for the distribution of jailbroken AI tools to cybercriminals. The Record US seeks extradition of alleged hacker arrested in France. The U.S. Justice Department is seeking the extradition of British national Kai West from France on cybercrime charges. Arrested in February, West is accused of operating under the alias “IntelBroker” and stealing data from global victims, including a U.S. telecom firm. Prosecutors say he sold or distributed stolen data via a cybercrime forum, causing millions in damages. A four-count indictment was unsealed Wednesday, and French media report four more hackers were arrested in connection with the case. Reuters

Aftermath of a Russian missile strike in Dnipro, which involved the first operational use of the Oreshnik.

Aftermath of a Russian missile strike in Dnipro, which involved the first operational use of the Oreshnik. STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE OF UKRAINE/via REUTERS

lighning bolt icon An icon in the shape of a lightning bolt.

lighning bolt icon An icon in the shape of a lightning bolt. Impact Link

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Russia is scaling up its production of Oreshnik intermediate-range hypersonic missiles, which Russian President Vladimir Putin previously put forward as a possible duel contender against US missile defense systems.

Putin told a graduating class of military cadets on Monday that Russia is accelerating production of the Oreshnik missile, which was first used against Ukraine in November.

“Serial production of the latest Oreshnik medium-range missile system is under way,” said Putin in the televised address, per Reuters.

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With a range of up to about 3,415 miles, the Oreshnik is capable of reaching targets across Europe and even the western United States.

Putin has said that the missile is nearly impossible to intercept and can carry a destructive force comparable to that of a nuclear weapon.

After the Oreshnik was used to strike Ukraine’s Dnipro region in November, Putin said there were “currently no ways of counteracting this weapon,” per the BBC.

Putin has previously made claims about how unstoppable certain Russian missiles are, only to see them downed in combat a short while later.

The Oreshnik could be a scaled-down version of the Yars-M ICBM. NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA / AFP

A missile duel

In December, Putin proposed a “duel” with the US to show the Oreshnik’s alleged supremacy over US-made systems. “We’re ready for such an experiment,” he said.

But Michael Bohnert, a defense analyst at RAND, told Business Insider that while the missile’s range and speed pose challenges, its practical impact might be overstated.

“When it comes to the ability of Oreshnik missiles and bypassing defenses, the fundamental issue with missile defense is not capability but the quantity and location of missile defenses tailored to the threat,” he said.

“Oreshnik missiles are incredibly expensive for their limited conventional warhead size and quantity,” he added. “While it has the range to target many locations without matching air defenses, its literal kinetic impact would still be low for the cost.”

However, Bohnert said that the missiles do force the need for “more matching air defenses to protect critical infrastructure.”

Grace Mappes, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, argued that the Oreshnik does not represent a major shift in Russia’s military capabilities.

She told BI that Russia has other missiles with comparable ranges and greater payloads.

“Russia regularly strikes Ukraine with nuclear-capable missiles and has long had missiles in mainland Russia and Kaliningrad capable of striking NATO states,” she said.

“These capabilities have not changed,” she added. “Russia is just using the Oreshnik to make an old threat upon which Russia has never acted seem new.”

What happened at today’s NATO summit?

The NATO summit at The Hague is now over and while Ukraine wasn’t the main item on the agenda, the ongoing war with Russia was still discussed.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a series of bilateral talks with foreign leaders, including a meeting with US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the summit.

The Ukrainian president said he discussed how to achieve a ceasefire and real peace with Trump, adding the meeting was “substantive” and the pair discussed how to “protect our people”.

He also said the two leaders discussed the possible co-production of drones and that he told Trump “the facts of what is happening on the ground”.

Speaking this afternoon, Trump admitted he and Zelenskyy had previously had some “rough times” but that his Ukrainian counterpart “couldn’t have been nicer” today.

He said he will now speak with Vladimir Putin about the war and “see if we can get it ended”, adding that the Russian leader would “like to get out of this thing” and that the war has “been a mess for him”.

Answering a question about whether Putin has any territorial ambitions beyond Ukraine, Trump said “it’s possible”.

He also said he thinks the Russian president has “been misguided” and adds: “I’m very surprised, actually. I thought we should have settled that easily.”

US considering extra Patriots for Ukraine

At one moment during his remarks, Trump was asked a question about the Patriot missile systems by a woman who revealed her husband was serving in the Ukrainian army.

“That’s a very good question,” Trump said. “And I wish you a lot of luck. I mean, I can see it’s very upsetting to you. So say hello to your husband.”

On the question itself, Trump said he is considering sending more Patriot missile batteries to Ukraine to help Kyiv fend off Russian attacks.

He said the air-defence missiles are “very hard to get” but that “we are going to see if we can make some of them available.”

In other Ukraine news…

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US officials estimate that Iran possesses the largest arsenal of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, with over 3,000 units. Some of these high-speed missiles can reach Israeli territory in as little as 15 minutes.

However, only medium-range ballistic missiles—those capable of travelling over 1,000 km—can strike Israel from Iran. According to Iran’s semi-official news agency ISNA, the country has nine different missile types with that capability.

“Most estimates I have seen put the number of Iranian missiles capable of hitting Israel closer to 2,000,” Dan Caldwell, a former senior adviser to US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, posted on X this week.

While much of Iran’s missile arsenal remains classified, ISNA published a graphic in April last year showcasing some of its key weapons. These included the Sejil, which can reach speeds of over 17,000 km/h and has a range of 2,500 km; the Kheibar, with a 2,000 km range; and the Haj Qasem, with a range of 1,400 km.

A recent threat assessment by the US military found that Iran fields a “large quantity” of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones capable of striking targets across the region. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Iran intends to continue expanding this capacity.

In a video statement on Friday, Netanyahu said Iran had accelerated production and was aiming to manufacture 300 ballistic missiles per month—potentially producing 20,000 rockets over the next six years.

Israel vs Iran: A military comparison

According to the latest estimates from SIPRI’s Military Balance, Israel’s defence budget in 2023 was more than double that of Iran—$27.5 billion compared to $10.3 billion.

Iran’s missile programme draws heavily from North Korean and Russian designs, and has reportedly benefited from Chinese assistance, according to the Arms Control Association, a Washington-based non-profit.

It now has 610,000 active personnel and 350,000 reserves with the addition of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iran also has 334 combat-capable aircraft, as well as air defence systems such as the Russian S-300, which has limited capabilities when it comes to defending against ballistic missiles.

Israel, for its part, has developed one of the most advanced missile arsenals in the world, combining decades of homegrown innovation with strong support from the US.

FILE – Israeli Iron Dome air defence system fires to intercept a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip, in Ashkelon, 20 October 2023 AP Photo

At the top end of this arsenal are long-range ballistic missiles such as the Jericho II and Jericho III. While the exact numbers are classified, the Jericho II is believed to be nuclear-capable with a range of around 1,500 kilometres, while the Jericho III may be able to reach targets over 6,000 kilometres away, giving Israel a strategic deterrent that extends far beyond its borders.

Alongside these long-range systems, Israel has hundreds of short- and medium-range missiles designed for quick, precise strikes. These include the Predator Hawk, which can hit targets up to 300 kilometres away, and cruise missiles such as the Popeye and the Delilah, which are launched from the air or sea.

In practice, each incoming missile usually requires its own interceptor missile to neutralise it. For example, if Iran were to launch 100 missiles, Israel would need to fire almost the same number of interceptors to stop them.

“The types of interceptors that are required to shoot down ballistic missiles are expensive and difficult to produce in mass quantities,” Dan Caldwell posted on X this week, adding that he think it likely that Israel and the US “are going to have start rationing their interceptors soon (if they haven’t already) – further increasing the effectiveness of even smaller Iranian barrages.”

Its multibillion-dollar military arsenal also includes around 340 combat aircraft—among them advanced US-made F-35 stealth fighters—46 helicopters, a combined 634,500 active and reserve personnel, and a multilayered air defence system.

Approximately 370 ballistic missiles have been launched by Iran at Israel since the conflict began on Friday, claims the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). On Saturday, an Israeli military official said that the country’s air defence shield had an “80 to 90% success rate”, while stressing that “no system is 100% effective”—implying that some Iranian missiles had breached Israeli air defences, Reuters reported.

The Iron Dome, Israel’s well-known air defence system, is just one component of a broader system designed to counter a range of aerial threats, from rockets and missiles to drones and aircraft.

The first layer, the Iron Dome, intercepts short-range rockets and artillery shells—typically within 70 kilometres—and is primarily used to protect civilian areas.

Next is David’s Sling, which targets medium-range ballistic missiles launched from distances between 100 and 200 kilometres.

Finally, the Arrow system—comprising Arrow 2 and Arrow 3—provides long-range defence. Arrow 2 is designed to intercept missiles in the upper atmosphere, roughly 50 kilometres above ground and within a 100-kilometre radius. Arrow 3 pushes that boundary into space, capable of intercepting missiles at distances of up to 2,400 kilometres.

Israel’s Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow systems are all missile interceptors. This means that they are not designed to launch attacks, but rather to detect and destroy incoming missiles before they reach their targets.

In practice, each incoming missile usually requires its own interceptor missile to neutralise it. For example, if Iran were to launch 100 missiles, Israel would likely need to fire almost 100 interceptors to stop them — one for each threat.

However, despite all these protection layers, analysts argue that Israel’s decision to target the heart of the Iranian regime is raising the stakes, as the latter could respond by striking other targets in neighbouring countries, thus escalating the conflict in the region, or by attempting to block trade in the Persian Gulf.

“If Israel continues to attack its nuclear and military facilities, Iran has a strong incentive to put together a rudimentary nuclear weapon as quickly as it can to deter any further damage of its facilities and demonstrate that it is capable of defending its sovereignty,” senior research fellow at Chatham House Dr Marion Messmer wrote in an analysis.

Britain’s Chief of the Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, has said that a planned stockpile of 7,000 cruise missiles would be one of the most consequential improvements in UK defence capability outlined in the latest Strategic Defence Review.

Speaking before the House of Commons Defence Committee, Admiral Radakin described the acquisition as a critical step in increasing the UK’s conventional lethality and reinforcing deterrence at a time of growing global instability.

“We are not as lethal as we want to be,” he told MPs. “If you go up the scale, you get to Storm Shadow and Tomahawk, and then you have a big leap before you get to a nuclear weapon.”

“If you are in a position like mine and you are trying to advise the Prime Minister, you want to have as many rungs on the ladder as possible before you get to the nuclear rung. The ability to have at least 7,000 cruise missiles and to launch them is on a different scale to what we currently have.”

Radakin described the cruise missile expansion as a “crystallised example” of practical changes needed “very quickly” under the Government’s defence reform plans.

Pressed by Labour MP Derek Twigg on which aspects of the Strategic Defence Review would make the most practical difference on the ground, Radakin singled out the cruise missile procurement as the top priority.

The Strategic Defence Review published earlier this year includes major shifts in UK force posture, missile stockpiles, and command structures. These reforms are intended to meet the challenges posed by near-peer adversaries such as Russia and emerging threats in the Indo-Pacific.

In a later exchange, Labour MP Fred Thomas asked Radakin whether the UK’s NATO-first posture could relieve some of the pressure on a stretched armed forces. He cited high levels of commitment across multiple theatres and longstanding issues with retention.

Radakin acknowledged these pressures but said that restructuring how exercises are delivered could offer some relief.

“There are not many things that we are going to stop doing. We will make some adjustments. For some of the smaller unit-level exercises, we will try to push those together to be part of bigger NATO exercises,” he said.

He pointed to recent large-scale activities such as Steadfast Dart and Steadfast Defender, which involved 16,000 personnel, as examples of how the Army is scaling operations while aligning with NATO’s deterrence posture.

However, he admitted that operational planning had too often failed to give personnel predictable deployments or recovery periods.

“The piece for me is when we did not give you notice that you might be going away again or promised that you would come back from deployment and would have four months to recover. We need to get those right and maybe deny some opportunities, but get a bit of a steadier approach. It feels like we have to do that.”

The 7,000 cruise missiles are expected to include new UK-manufactured long-range strike systems as well as expanded stocks of existing missiles such as Storm Shadow and Tomahawk. Further announcements on delivery timelines and integration with Royal Navy and Royal Air Force platforms are expected later this year.