US moves 30 jets as Iran attack speculation grows

7 hours ago Share Save Matt Murphy, Thomas Spencer & Alex Murray BBC Verify Share Save

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At least 30 US military planes have been moved from bases in America to Europe over the past three days, flight tracking data reviewed by BBC Verify has shown. The planes in question are all US military tanker aircraft used to re-fuel fighter jets and bombers. According to Flightradar24, at least seven of these – all KC-135s – stopped off in US airbases in Spain, Scotland and England. The flights come as Israel and Iran continue to exchange strikes, after Israel launched an operation on Friday that it said was to destroy Tehran’s nuclear programme. It is unclear whether the US movements are directly connected to the conflict, but one expert told BBC Verify that the tanker aircraft flights were “highly unusual”.

Justin Bronk, a senior analyst with the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) think tank, said that the deployments were “highly suggestive” that the US was putting in place contingency plans to “support intensive combat operations” in the region in the coming weeks. The seven jets tracked by BBC Verify have since travelled on and according to flight tracking data could be seen flying east of Sicily as of Tuesday afternoon. Six had no stated destination – one landed on the Greek island of Crete. But the former head of Irish Defence Forces, Vice-Admiral Mark Mellett, said that the movements could be part of a broader policy of “strategic ambiguity” that could be attempting to influence Iran to make concessions in talks over its nuclear programme. Israel initially launched an attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure on Friday, just a day after President Donald Trump’s deadline to Iran to strike a deal on suspending its nuclear programme expired. The jet movements come amid reports that the US has also moved an aircraft carrier – the USS Nimitz, from the South China Sea towards the Middle East. The Reuters news agency reported that a planned event involving the ship in Vietnam was cancelled after what the US embassy in Hanoi called an “emergent operational requirement”. MarineTraffic, a ship-tracking website, showed that the USS Nimitz’s last location was in the Malacca Strait heading towards Singapore early on Tuesday. The Nimitz carries a contingent of fighter jets and is escorted by several guided missile destroyers.

The US has also moved F-16, F-22 and F-35 fighter jets to bases in the Middle East, three defence officials told Reuters on Tuesday. The tanker planes moved to Europe over the past several days can be used to re-fuel these jets. Earlier on Tuesday, Vice-President JD Vance suggested that the US could intervene to support Israel’s campaign, writing on social media that Trump “may decide he needs to take further action” to end Iran’s nuclear programme. Tehran is believed to run two principal underground enrichment sites. Natanz has already been hit by Israel, and Fordo is buried deep within a mountain complex near the city of Qom. To penetrate the facility, the US would likely have to use GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) munitions, two senior Western military officers told BBC Verify. MOPs are huge, 30,000lb (13,600kg) bombs also known as “bunker busters”.

The bomb is the only conventional weapon of its kind that is thought to be capable of breaching up to 200ft (60m) of concrete. Only the B-2 stealth bomber can carry the munitions. Recently, the US has had a squadron of B-2 bombers at its base on the island of Diego Garcia. While the island is some 2,400 miles from Iran’s southern coastline, their location on Diego Garcia would put them well within striking of range of Iran. “You would be able to maintain a sustained operation from [Diego Garcia] far more efficiently,” Air Marshall Greg Bagwell – a former RAF deputy operations chief – told BBC Verify. “You could literally have them round the clock operating.” Satellite images first showed B-2 bombers had been stationed on Diego Garcia at the end of March, but the most recent imagery from the island no longer shows the bombers present.

How one US weapon could change the course of the Israel-Iran conflict

Mali begins building Russian-backed gold refinery

11 hours ago Share Save Farouk Chothia BBC News Share Save

Mali presidency Gen Assimi Goïta says a long-awaited dream is becoming a reality

Mali’s military junta has started building a gold refinery in partnership with a Russian conglomerate, the Yadran Group. The project would embody the West African nation’s assertion of its “economic sovereignty”, and ensure the nation benefited from its mineral wealth, military leader Gen Assimi Goïta said. He has strengthened military and economic ties with Russia since seizing power in a coup in 2021, while reducing relations with former colonial power France and other Western nations. This reflects a broader trend in the region, with neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger also pivoting towards Russia after the overthrow of civilian leaders.

Western firms have since been facing a tough time – the latest example being Mali’s decision to put a huge gold mine, run by Canadian giant Barrick, into administration, effectively bringing it under state control. On Monday, Gen Goïta – along with Yadran Group head Irek Salikhov – attended a ceremony for the construction of the refinery, which will have a 200-tonne capacity, in Senou, not far from the capital, Bamako. Mali would having a majority stake in the refinery, and Yadran Group a minority share. Mr Salikhov hailed the plant as a “win-win” for both nations, saying the aim was to turn the refinery into “a regional centre for processing gold extracted not only in Mali, but also in neighbouring countries like Burkina Faso”. No date has been announced for its completion, but Gen Goita said: “It’s a long-awaited dream of the Malian people, and today it’s becoming a reality.” The plant would enable Mali to “refine all the gold mined on its soil, ending decades of crude export to foreign refineries”, he added. Mali is Africa’s second-biggest producer of gold, but many of its people remain poor 65 years after independence.

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Russia fears another loss in Middle East from Iran’s conflict with Israel

2 hours ago Share Save Steve Rosenberg Russia Editor Reporting from Saint Petersburg Share Save

Reuters While Moscow has talked up its partnership with Iran, the deal does not require Russia to come to Iran’s military aid

When Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, officials in Russia described the current escalation in the Middle East as “alarming” and “dangerous.” Still, Russian media were quick to stress the potential positives for Moscow. Among them: A rise in global oil prices which is forecast to boost Russia’s coffers

The distraction of global attention away from Russia’s war on Ukraine. “Kyiv has been forgotten” was a headline in Moskovsky Komsomolets

And if the Kremlin’s offer to mediate in the conflict was accepted, Russia could portray itself as a key player in the Middle East and as a peacemaker, despite its actions in Ukraine However, the longer Israel’s military operation goes on, the greater the realisation that Russia has much to lose from current events. “The escalation of the conflict carries serious risks and potential costs for Moscow,” wrote Russian political scientist Andrei Kortunov in business daily Kommersant on Monday.

“The fact remains that Russia was unable to prevent a mass strike by Israel on a country with which five months ago [Russia] signed a comprehensive strategic partnership. “Clearly Moscow is not prepared to go beyond political statements condemning Israel, it’s not ready to provide Iran with military assistance.” The Russian-Iranian strategic partnership deal which Vladimir Putin and President Masoud Pezeshkian signed earlier this year is not a military alliance. It does not oblige Moscow to come to Tehran’s defence. At the time, though, Moscow talked it up. In an interview with the Ria Novosti news agency, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that the agreement paid “special attention to the strengthening of co-ordination in the interests of peace and security on the regional and global levels, and the desire of Moscow and Tehran for closer co-operation on security and defence”.

Reuters Russia has relied heavily on Iran’s Shahed drones in its war in Ukraine, but now manufactures them locally

In the last six months Moscow has already lost one key ally in the Middle East, Bashar al-Assad. After the Syrian leader was deposed last December he was offered asylum in Russia. The prospect of regime change in Iran, the thought of losing another strategic partner in the region, will be of major concern to Moscow.

Russian analysts also predicted that the new conflict would distract world attention from Russia’s military action against Ukraine, and that the resulting surge in oil prices would replenish Russia’s increasingly squeezed coffers.

But as Israel expands its attacks deeper into Iran’s cities and towns, targeting energy production and manufacturing facilities, nervousness is growing in Russia that the Israeli attacks could lead to regime change in Iran and the potential loss of one of Russia’s most important allies in its efforts to create an “anti-Western alliance”.

“The situation is developing in a dangerous direction for Russia,” said Konstantin Zatulin, head of Moscow’s influential CIS Institute, which is close to Russian security services, writing on Telegram.

The institute will be holding a conference tomorrow NZT with the Iranian Foreign Ministry on “Russian-Iranian co-operation in a changing world”.

One Russian academic close to senior Russian diplomats said he expected the Russian participants to be closely watching their Iranian counterparts during the conference for any signals on the fragility of the regime.

“It’s not clear that pressure from Israel will lead to the weakening of the regime. The external threat could lead to the opposite and unite society,” he said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to talk frankly on the subject.

“Where the limits of this stability are – this is the most important question. It is difficult to judge.”

Other Russian analysts said they feared the Iranian regime was increasingly brittle.

Since the start of its full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow has drawn ever closer to its long-standing ally, Tehran.

It relied heavily on a steady supply of cheap Iranian drones and missiles to bombard Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, at least until recently, when it launched its own drone production lines.

Moscow and Tehran signed a strategic partnership agreement in January formalising their close ties but stopped short of setting up a full military alliance.

“The biggest threat is that under any resolution of the crisis, there is a risk for Russia’s position in the region.

“If [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu can pressure the Islamic republic and provoke a regime change, then it’s more likely than not that whatever the new regime will be – whether secular or religious, military or liberal or conservative – it’s not going to be as positive toward Moscow as the current one,” the academic said.

Even if the regime withstands prolonged attacks, “then the process of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East is likely to spread, which is also not in Russia’s interests”, the academic added. “It is difficult to find a situation here where Russia would win.”

After the fall of another long-standing Moscow ally in Syria, any collapse of the Iranian regime would be a much more serious blow, he added.

“Iran is bigger and is a neighbouring country, and there is an even more historic long-standing relationship.”

As Netanyahu makes his determination to topple the current Iranian leadership ever clearer, urging Iranians to “stand up and let your voices be heard,” the chances for Putin to act as an effective intermediary appear to be diminishing, he said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov yesterday reiterated Moscow’s offer to mediate between Israel and Iran, but so far there have been no immediate takers.

Trump appeared to be considering it when he spoke with Putin by telephone at the weekend, but a number of European leaders have dismissed the idea.

The most immediate boon for Russia since the start of the conflict is the surge in the price of Russian Urals-blend oil which, according to Reuters, is now back up to levels last seen in April, above the US$60 price cap set for Russian oil by the Group of Seven countries as part of efforts to reduce Moscow’s ability to fund its war in Ukraine.

Falling oil prices had put an increasing strain on the Russian budget, causing oil and gas revenue to plunge by a third, to US$6.55 billion in May, according to Russian Finance Ministry data.

“While the oil price is high, Russia can get billions of dollars, potentially tens of billions of dollars in additional revenue, and this is always useful,” said Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political analyst.

In addition, any reduction in oil supplies from Iran would make China more reliant on Russian supplies, bringing Beijing potentially even closer to Moscow and making it less likely to bow to the threat of sanctions.

A further immediate benefit for Moscow would be the need for the US to divert missile defence systems to its bases in the Middle East and to its allies there, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

“Ukraine can forget about getting more air defence systems,” Markov said.

“But strategically, if there is regime change, then the anti-Western coalition will be smaller,” he said.

Some Russian politicians have been warning that the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran could push the world to the brink of World War III.

“They are trying to present peaceful nuclear development as a nuclear threat, in this way setting alight the fire of World War III,” warned the head of the Russian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, Leonid Slutsky.

“Parliaments of the whole world should speak out against an escalation of the conflict, which could spread far beyond the borders of the Middle East.”

If Iran expands its response beyond strikes on Israeli targets, “this would be the worst scenario in the current difficult situation”, said Konstantin Kosachev, deputy speaker of the Federation Council, Russia’s upper chamber of parliament.

Chances are also growing that this could turn into a global conflict, Markov said.

Russia could begin providing further assistance to Iran in an effort to prop up its Middle Eastern ally, including by supplying more air defence systems and more military assistance, as well as food and other aid to ease internal tensions.

“When everywhere the fires of conflict are burning, then it’s clear these fires could begin to merge and a huge worldwide conflagration can begin,” Markov said.

“The West has created the conditions for any war to be good for Russia.”

Russia’s deadliest attack on Kyiv for months flattens part of apartment block

10 hours ago Share Save Joel Gunter BBC News Reporting from Kyiv Jessica Rawnsley BBC News Reporting from London Share Save

Russian drone strikes Kyiv tower block and other sites in capital hit overnight

Russia has carried out a mass missile and drone attack on Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, killing at least 10 people and wounding more than 100 others, officials say. A drone smashed into an apartment block, destroying dozens of flats and Ukraine’s interior minister said the country had been hit by 440 drones and 32 missiles. Officials said initially that 15 people had died in the capital, but later revised the number down to 10, with another two fatalities in the southern port city of Odesa. The attack overnight into Tuesday was among the biggest on the capital since the start of Russia’s full-scale war and President Volodymyr Zelensky said it was “one of the most terrifying strikes”.

Russia’s defence ministry said it had targeted Ukraine’s military-industrial complexes and that all its targets had been hit. The strikes on Kyiv lasted more than nine hours – sending residents fleeing to underground shelters from before midnight until after sunrise. Officials said a ballistic missile hit a nine-storey apartment building in one district, with a total of 27 locations in the city coming under fire. An entrance to the building in the southwestern Solomyanskyi district came crashing down and there were concerns the number of casualties could rise. A 62-year-old US citizen was among those killed, Kyiv’s Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.

Reuters It is one of the largest bombardments of the capital since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion

Standing in front of the remains of the building, Klitschko said more than 40 apartments had been destroyed and more people might be trapped under the rubble. He accused Russia of firing cluster bomblets filled with ball bearings to kill as many people as possible. “Waking up in utter nightmare: people trapped under rubble and full buildings collapsed,” Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko wrote on X. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said that a variety of buildings had come under Russian attack, including residential, critical infrastructure and educational facilities. People were still under the rubble by late afternoon and rescue work was going on at two sites, he said. Klymenko explained that initial mistakes made in counting the dead often happened because body parts were wrongly identified. Loud explosions rocked the city in the early hours of Tuesday, along with the rattle of the machine guns used by mobile Ukrainian air defence units to shoot down drones. More sirens later in the morning disrupted rescue operations in the city, hampering emergency workers searching the rubble for survivors. Russia has intensified its air attacks against Ukrainian cities in recent weeks, with a tactic of sending large waves of drones and decoys designed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences. Kyiv has launched attacks of its own, as direct talks between the warring sides failed to secure a ceasefire or significant breakthrough. Russia accused Ukrainian forces of launching a missile strike on a district in occupied Donetsk in eastern Ukraine on Tuesday, and Russia-appointed officials said at least 10 people had been hurt. A reported 147 Ukrainian drones were shot down over nine Russian regions overnight, Russian news agencies said.

Reuters Kyiv was hit by a barrage of strikes overnight into Tuesday