Russia’s flagship Urals crude oil, a key contributor to the national budget and the country’s war chest, jumped nearly 15% following the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran, according to analysts at BCS Bank.

Urals was trading at 5,000 rubles ($65) per barrel on Friday, up from less than 4,400 rubles ($57.20) just three days earlier — its lowest level in two years.

Still, prices remain below the government’s expectations. The original budget had assumed a price of 6,700 rubles ($87.10) per barrel, while a revised forecast in May from the Economic Development Ministry set the target at 5,300 rubles ($68.90).

Although Urals averaged around 5,900 rubles ($76.70) per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, oil and gas revenues still fell by 10% year-on-year.

By May, the decline had accelerated to 34%, with total receipts from energy companies plummeting to 512.7 billion rubles ($6.66 billion) — the lowest monthly figure since January 2023, according to the Finance Ministry.