The USD is little changed and mixed to start the trading day and as the 2nd day of the US/China talks get underway in London. Commerece Sec. Lutnick was on the wires saying the discussions are “going well” and were “fruitful”.

Tomorrow US CPI will be a key release for the week in the US. In other event news today,and this week the US treasury will auction 3, 10 and 30 year coupon issues starting with the 3 year note today at 1 PM ET.

Below are the changes of the major currencies vs the US dollar. The biggest move is the GBP with a rise of 0.30% (GBPUSD is lower by that amount today). The EURUSD and the USDJPY are little changed in what has been up and down trading for those two pairs.

EUR: -0.11%

JPY: -0.06%

GBP: +0.30%

CHF: -0.07%

CAD: -0.04%

AUD: -0.08%

NZD: -0.13%

IN the video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective including the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. Although the major pairs are relatively little changes (although the USD is higher by 0.30% vs the GBP), there has been up and down volatility along the way.

This morning in the US, The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 98.8 in May, beating expectations of 95.9 and up from 95.8 in April, slightly above the 51-year average of 98. The increase was primarily driven by more positive expectations for business conditions and sales growth. However, uncertainty remains elevated, with the Uncertainty Index rising two points to 94. Notably, 18% of small business owners cited taxes as their top concern, the highest reading since December 2020. According to NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg, while optimism improved, the economy remains vulnerable amid ongoing policy and economic uncertainty.

In the US Debt market, the yields are little changed to start the US session:

US 2Y T-Note: 3.9868% (↓1.6 bps)

US 3Y T-Note: 3.9632% (↓2.0 bps)

US 5Y T-Note: 4.0610% (↓2.6 bps)

US 10Y T-Note: 4.4500% (↓3.4 bps)

US 30Y T-Bond: 4.9111% (↓4.3 bps)

The U.S. Treasury kicks off this week’s coupon supply with a $58 billion 3-year note auction on Tuesday, marking the first leg of a busy midweek schedule. This will be followed by a $39 billion 10-year note reopening on Wednesday and capped off by a $22 billion 30-year bond reopening on Thursday. The auction slate will provide key insight into investor appetite for duration amid softening yields and shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy. The focus will be on demand metrics such as bid-to-cover ratios and foreign participation, particularly as the longer-dated paper often reveals sentiment around inflation and growth prospects. There may be a redirection of foreign funds as a result of auctions as well. The key auction will be the 10 year as it is an influence on corporate borrowing as well as consumers with mortgages, car loans and other consumer credit loans hinging on that rate.

In the US stock market,t he major indices are now trading higher with the futures currently implying:

Dow Industrial Average +15 points

S&P index up 8.62 points

Nasdaq index up 35 points

Bitcoin extended to a high of $110,352 and toward the $112,000 all-time high but has backed off and currently trades at $109,500. Crude oil is stretching toward its 100-day MA at $66.17. The high reached $65.71 so far today, with the current price trading at $65.60, up about $0.30 on the day.

. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Join the newsletter that everyone in finance secretly reads. 1M+ subscribers, 100% free.

What’s going on here?

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported its index of small business optimism climbed to 98.8 in May from 95.8 in April, marking noticeable growth from last year.

What does this mean?

Despite the uptick in optimism, US small businesses are still navigating economic uncertainties. For the first time since late 2020, taxes are the top concern for 18% of entrepreneurs, ahead of labor quality and inflation. Sales expectations improved by 11 percentage points, reflecting confidence in revenue growth, while economic expectations rose by 10 points, suggesting a cautiously positive outlook. Plans for capital investments increased, showing potential future growth, but earnings trends slipped to a net minus 26%, painting a mixed picture of progress amidst ongoing challenges.

Why should I care?

For markets: Small steps in a big economy.

Small businesses are often seen as a barometer for the wider economy. The improvement in the NFIB index hints at a positive shift in market sentiment, which could promote stability in the broader US market. Investors might focus on sales and economic expectations in this sector, as they can precede larger economic trends.

The bigger picture: Balancing optimism with caution.

Global economic conditions, tax policies, and labor markets still play key roles in shaping US entrepreneurship. As small business owners tackle these issues, their confidence could significantly influence national policies and economic strategies. Grasping these dynamics is crucial for crafting a resilient economic future.

For the first time all year, small business owners in Colorado and the rest of the country are reporting heightened optimism about the future of their business.

The National Federation of Independent Business released its latest monthly findings early Tuesday morning, and it shows that optimism ticked up 3 points after tumbling nearly 10 since the beginning of the year.

The report releases monthly and is a composite of responses from small businesses owners around the country as a snapshot of small business health.

In an interview with Denver7, the group’s executive director Holly Wade said the rise is primarily due to the Trump Administration’s changing tariff policies which have allowed for a little breathing room.

“[Small businesses] are holding on to a bit more money, so they’re not investing quite as much in their business with capital spending plans or hiring plans,” Wade said. “It did pick back up a little bit this last month. Maybe some of that could be due to the pause in these tariffs and trade negotiations as they move through those conversations.”

Small businesses report rising confidence in economy for the first time all year

In the months leading up to the November 2024 election, the NFIB Optimism Index soared as small business owners nationwide anticipated more free market policies and less regulation.

From March 2024 through December 2024, the index jumped more than 25 points — from 88.5 to 105.1 — after hovering near 90 for more than two years. That number has sharply declined every month, however, since the president has taken office amid his administration’s changing tariff policies.

That changed in May as the S&P 500 gained 6% and confidence in the American economy strengthened.

Still, the index shows small business worry.

Taxes are now the leading concern, according to the survey ,with 18% of small business owners responding as such. The concerns rose amid talks of the president’s “big beautiful tax bill” which would extend tax breaks to individuals, particularly tipped workers.

Other top concerns for small businesses, according to the index, include labor quality and inflation.

getty

Despite the mayhem and uncertainty generated by President Trump’s tariffs and tariff threats, small business owners’ optimism rose last month.

That’s according to the Small Business Optimism Index from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), a lobbying group for small business owners. The NFIB surveyed 5,000 of its members and received 485 usable responses in May.

The survey’s headline optimism number ticked up to 98.8 in May. That’s the first month-over-month increase since December and puts the index slightly above its 51-year average of 98. Seven of the 10 components that make up the index rose last month. Expectations for better business conditions and stronger sales mostly drove the gains. The stock market’s strong rebound, with the S&P 500 Index gaining over 6% in May, likely helped fuel small business confidence, suggesting the economic concerns sparked by Trump’s April “Liberation Day” tariff announcement were abating. At least for now, so long as “Trump Always Chickens Out” (TACO) catchphrase, mocking frequent tariff policy reversals, holds true.

Even so, small business owners have a new top gripe.

Taxes, much in the news as the House passed a big bill extending expiring tax cuts and containing new or expanded breaks, are now the leading concern for small-business owners. Eighteen percent of respondents cited them as their biggest problem. That’s the first time taxes have topped the list of complaints since December 2020. Worries over labor quality, which had held the top spot for the past three months, fell to second and is at its lowest level since April 2020.

Inflation remains a concern, too, with 14% of owners listing it as their biggest problem. That’s despite the fact that consumer prices rose just 2.3% in April from a year earlier, the lowest reading since February 2021. Financing costs, government regulation, and insurance availability all trailed far behind on the list of worries.

Other parts of the survey show a mixed picture.

Plans to increase capital outlays rose to their highest level this year, despite owners saying actual earnings are falling.

Fewer owners reported raising compensation last month, a sign that wage pressures, hand in hand with inflation, are easing. At the same time, job creation plans remain weak.

But the cheery outlook might not hold if unpredictability remains the norm. The NFIB’s Uncertainty Index has remained above 90 since July 2024, a level that it hadn’t previously breached since November 2020. Uncertainty remains high as tariff policy continues to shift by the day, complicating supply chain planning and pricing, and the Senate considers President Trump’s the House-passed “Big Beautiful Bill” containing tax and spending cuts.

“It’s hard to steer a ship in the fog,” the NFIB wrote in its report.

Bottom line: The NFIB survey reflects an economy that is still growing, but slowly, and a labor market that, while resilient, is softening.

More from Forbes

Forbes Forbes Small Business Toolkit–For The Trump Era

Forbes Small Businesses Hit Pause On Hiring Amid Tariff Confusion

Forbes $183 Billion Is Up For Grabs, If Small Businesses Can Read The Fine Print

Forbes Tariffs Slam Retailers, Skewing Small Business Optimism Index

WASHINGTON — The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index declined by 1.6 points in April to 95.8, the second consecutive month below the 51-year average of 98.

The Uncertainty Index decreased four points from March to 92 but remained far above the historical average of 68. Seasonally adjusted, 34% of small-business owners reported job openings they could not fill in April, down six points from March. The last time job openings were below this level was in January 2021.

“Uncertainty continues to be a major impediment for small-business owners in operating their business in April, affecting everything from hiring plans to investment decisions,” says NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While owners are still trying to fill a high number of current job openings, their outlook on business conditions is less supportive of future business investments.”

Key Findings

In the NFIB’s monthly jobs report, of the 56% of owners hiring or trying to hire in April, 85% reported few or no qualified applicants for their available positions. A seasonally adjusted net 13% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, up one point from March.

Labor costs, reported as the single most important problem for small-business owners, fell three points in April to 8%.

Seasonally adjusted, a net 33% reported raising compensation, down five points from March. A seasonally adjusted net 17% plan to raise compensation in the next three months, down two points from March.

Fifty-eight percent of owners reported capital outlays in the last six months, down one point from March and the first decline since September 2024. Of those making expenditures, 40% reported spending on new equipment, 25% acquired vehicles and 16% improved or expanded facilities. Fourteen percent spent money on new fixtures and furniture and 6% acquired new buildings or land for expansion.

In April, the percentage of small-business owners reporting “poor sales” as their top business problem remained at 9% for the fourth consecutive month. A net negative 8% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up three points from March and the highest reading since September 2023.

Seasonally adjusted, a net 28% planned price hikes in April, down two points from March. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell one point from March to a net 25%, seasonally adjusted. Unadjusted, 11% of owners reported lower average selling prices and 39% reported higher average prices.

Three percent of owners reported that financing and interest rates were their top business problem in April, unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. Twenty-six percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, down two points from March. A net 5% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, down one point from March. A net 6% reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan.

Nine percent (seasonally adjusted) of owners reported that it is a good time to expand their business, unchanged from March and a historically low reading.

Taxes were ranked just below labor quality as the top issue, with 16% of owners reporting it as their single most important problem, down two points from March’s highest reading since November 2021. The percentage of small-business owners reporting government regulations and red tape as their single most important problem rose one point from March to 9%. Seven percent reported competition from large businesses as their single most important problem, up one point from March.

The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership.