Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., June 11, 2025.

The S&P 500 rose to a new record on Friday, capping off what has been an improbable turnaround for U.S. stocks this year as they overcame trade turmoil and geopolitics to reclaim the record set in February. Friday’s gain was driven by hope that trade deals with China and other countries are coming soon.

The S&P 500 added 0.6% to 6,177.14 on Friday, a new record that surpassed the prior all-time high of 6,147.43 from Feb. 19. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5% to around 20,218, also a new record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 532 points, or 1.2%.

What began as a banner day for the benchmark S&P 500 at the market open has now become a broad and healthy rally. Ten of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 were in positive territory on Friday, with energy being the sole laggard as oil prices slipped. Industrials, consumer discretionary and real estate were all up more than 1%.

Late Thursday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg News that a framework between China and the U.S. on trade had been finalized. Lutnick added that the Trump administration expects to reach deals with 10 major trading partners imminently.

President Donald Trump also said Thursday “we just signed with China yesterday.” A White House official later clarified he meant China agreed to “an additional understanding of a framework to implement the Geneva agreement.” China’s Ministry of Commerce also said Friday that the two countries had confirmed a trade framework that would allow the export of rare earths to the U.S. and ease tech restrictions.

After rising to a new high in February on hopes for business-friendly policies from Trump, stocks tumbled as the president decided to instead implement stiff tariffs first. At its low in April, the S&P 500 was down nearly 18% for 2025. The benchmark then began a stunning comeback after Trump walked back his stiffest tariff rates and the U.S. began negotiations for trade deals.

“The news in the last week has been unambiguously good, and unambiguously good for the stock market too,” said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. “Put it this way – there’s nothing in the way of a weaker dollar, but there’s also nothing in the way of a stronger stock market in the U.S. right now.”

U.S. stock futures opened Thursday night with a slight increase, pushing the S&P 500 to a new all-time high of 6,141.02, just shy of the previous intraday record of 6,147.43 set in February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw a 0.9% increase, while the Nasdaq Composite rose nearly 1%, both moving closer to their own potential all-time highs. This cautious optimism comes ahead of key inflation data expected to be released on Friday morning, which could either sustain the rally or cause it to falter.

Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of May’s personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Economists predict a monthly increase of 0.1% and a year-over-year jump of 2.3%. The core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to rise 0.1% for the month and 2.6% for the year. Additionally, updates on consumer spending, personal income, and consumer sentiment are set to be released, which could further influence market sentiment.

Despite ongoing geopolitical pressures and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s rate strategy, the stock market has shown resilience, recovering from its lows earlier this year. All three major indexes have posted solid weekly gains, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones up over 2%, and the Nasdaq jumping more than 3%. Rick Rieder, who heads global fixed income at BlackRock, attributed this to the influx of money into the market, stating that without negative news, the natural gravitational pull is across all assets.

While equities are flirting with record highs, Bitcoin has been stuck in a tight range since May 9, bouncing between $102,000 and $112,000. Despite significant interest from institutions, Bitcoin has not managed a strong rally. Bitcoin ETFs recorded their 12th straight day of inflows, pulling in $3.5 billion this month, yet Bitcoin itself has only risen by 2%. Markus Thielen, who leads 10x Research, explained that the demand has been offset by selling from larger wallets, resulting in an orderly change of ownership.

The biggest players in the crypto market are currently whales and megawhales, who have been net sellers since the start of the year. Retail wallets are also dumping, but dolphins, those holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, are stepping in to absorb the pressure. However, this balance is fragile. Companies like BlackRock and Strategy have built large positions using hundreds of wallets, but even with these holdings spread out, they are considered large buyers behind most of the recent ETF flows.

Despite all the buying, price movement has stayed muted due to the significant bitcoin reserves still in the hands of Chinese miners. Between 2013 and 2021, China controlled up to 75% of the global hashrate, and out of the 19.9 million bitcoins mined so far, between 11 and 15 million came from China-based miners. Of that, about 5 million are still under their control. Normally, during a big price rally, these wallets start dumping on exchanges, but this time, they haven’t. It seems that these wallets are holding tight and only releasing as many bitcoins as can be scooped up by ETFs and by Strategy.

Strategy, now focused on corporate crypto adoption, has slowed down its BTC buying this year due to a narrowing stock premium and rising competition from other treasury buyers. If megawhale selling accelerates further, a deeper correction is likely. On the other hand, if those big sellers back off and whale accumulation starts to rise, the next leg up might finally begin.

Pinned Post

The three key indexes furthered their gains mid-day Friday, with riskier assets gaining momentum.

The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite both gained 0.7% each. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 518 points, or 1.2%. Each of the indexes had marked more modest gains at open.

Money is flying out of haven assets, as evidenced by the sell-off in Treasury bonds and gold on Friday. The dollar has wavered through the day, dancing around the breakeven line. It’s on pace for its worst first half performance on record.

Markets see the worst already over for stocks. Fears of a full-blown trade war have subsided and the Middle East tensions with Iran have calmed.

Gold weakens as risk sentiment improves, US equities rally pushing S&P 500 futures to record highs.

Core PCE inflation for May rises along with June Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index while inflation expectations fall.

XAU/USD remains on the backfoot with selling pressure increasing below $3,300.

Gold (XAU/USD) is on the defensive heading into the weekend, pressured by a combination of mixed US data and improving global risk sentiment.

The precious metal is trading below $3,300, down nearly 2% on the day, as safe-haven flows continue to unwind.

Friday’s core PCE inflation print showed a modest uptick in May, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance and creating a murkier outlook for the timing of rate cuts. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index ticked higher in June, while inflation expectations softened, pointing to stable consumer outlooks.

US inflation data for May rises above analyst estimates

The release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on Friday has placed additional pressure on the US Dollar but did little to boost Gold.

This important dataset measures the pace at which prices of goods and services are rising and is released on a monthly basis. It is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed)preferred measure of inflation, which plays a significant role in setting expectations for interest rates.

The headline PCE inflation figures for May came in line with expectations. The monthly figure rose by 0.1%, unchanged from April, while the year-over-year rate increased to 2.3%, slightly above April’s 2.2%, and in line with forecasts.

However, the core PCE data—which excludes volatile components such as food and energy—surprised to the upside. Both the monthly and annual figures came in hotter than expected. Core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month, ahead of the 0.1% estimate, while the annual rate climbed to 2.7%, surpassing expectations for an unchanged reading from April’s 2.6%.

In contrast, broader consumption data disappointed. Personal income fell by 0.4% in May, well below the expected 0.3% increase and a sharp reversal from April’s 0.7% gain. Personal spending also declined by 0.1%, missing the consensus forecast for a 0.1% rise and down from the prior month’s 0.2%.

As the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the rise in core PCE complicates the policy outlook. President Donald Trump continues to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates to support growth, but such action typically fuels inflation—already above the central bank’s 2% target.

Still, with income and spending data showing clear signs of economic fatigue, the Fed may be forced to weigh inflation against the risk of a broader slowdown. For markets, this opens the door to a dovish shift in tone, potentially paving the way for a rate cut as early as July.

Moreover, President Trump is putting immense pressure on the Fed to cut rates to stimulate the economy.

A major concern for the Fed has been the impact of tariffs on inflation. A trade deal with China, which has resulted in a pause of higher reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports until August 12, could alleviate some of the pressure that potential higher tariffs may have on the US economy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point (bps) rate cut in September has increased to 72%, with markets anticipating rates to fall by at least 50 bps by year-end.

While lower rates bode well for Gold, the increase in demand for equities and riskier assets may continue to weigh on bullion in the short term.

Daily digest market movers: Gold digests the release of key US economic data as safe-haven demand fades

The latest University of Michigan data painted a mixed picture of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations in the United States. The Consumer Sentiment Index rose slightly to 60.7 in June, up from 60.5 previously, suggesting a modest improvement in overall consumer confidence.

However, the Consumer Expectations Index slipped to 58.1, indicating that households are feeling slightly less optimistic about future economic conditions.

On the inflation front, both short- and long-term expectations edged lower, with the one-year outlook falling to 5.0% and the five-year figure easing to 4.0%. While inflation expectations remain elevated, the decline could offer some relief to the Federal Reserve as it navigates conflicting signals—resilient inflation data alongside slowing consumer demand.

Thursday’s final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading for the first quarter showed that the US economy had contracted by 0.5%, as imports increased before the imposition of the higher tariff rates announced by Trump on “Liberation Day.”

The table below illustrates the breakdown of the Q1 GDP components released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday.

The Bank Stress Test, published by the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, will be released at 20:30 GMT. This report outlines how the largest US banking institutions would perform under various adverse economic scenarios. It is designed to evaluate the resilience of the financial system; the test assesses how these banks would respond to severe financial shocks.

The results can influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook and help gauge potential risks to its long-term goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.

For Gold, the culmination of these data releases may play an important role in determining the direction of XAU/USD. Especially once the latest US-China progress on trade talks has been digested by markets, investors focus on the broader macroeconomic environment.

Gold technical analysis: XAU/USD extends losses as bearish momentum pushes the RSI toward oversold terriitory

Gold remains under pressure, with prices trading below the key psychological level of $3,300, which now provides near-term resistance for the yellow metal.

Above that is the 50-day Simple Moving Average at $3,324 and the 20-day SMA near $3,356.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing 30, a potential sign of oversold conditions.

In the bearish scenario, a sustained break below the mid-point of the April low-high move, represented by the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, provides support at $3,228. A break of which could open the door toward the $3,200 psychological handle. The 100-day SMA at $3,164 acts as a deeper support level.

Gold daily chart

On the other hand, the bullish scenario would require a decisive recovery above the 20-day SMA, potentially reigniting upside momentum toward the $3,400 and $3,452 resistance levels. Until such a move materializes, Gold may remain vulnerable to deeper retracements within its broader consolidation pattern.

This is CNBC’s live blog covering Asia-Pacific markets.

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Friday as investors assessed China’s May industrial data. The country’s industrial profits fell 9.1% year on year in the first five months of the year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

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That marked the largest monthly decline since October last year, when the industrial profits dropped 10%. Industrial profits are a key measure of the financial health of factories, mines and utilities in China.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 climbed 1.43% to end the day at 40,150.79, after crossing the 40,000 mark for the first time since Jan. 7 earlier in the day. Meanwhile, the broader Topix index advanced 1.28% to 2,840.54.

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The country’s capital city of Tokyo saw core consumer price index excluding fresh food and fuel rise 3.1% year on year in June, slower than the 3.6% increase seen in the previous month, and the 3.3% gain penciled by economists polled by Reuters.

In South Korea, the Kospi index ended the day 0.77% lower at 3,055.94, while the small-cap Kosdaq dropped by 0.81% to 781.56.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed 0.17% lower at 24,284.15 and mainland China’s CSI 300 index were down 0.61% at 3,921.76.

Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 benchmark ended the day 0.43% lower at 8,514.20.

India’s benchmark Nifty 50 had moved up 0.32% while the BSE Sensex was up 0.29% at 11.15 a.m. Indian Standard Time.

U.S. stock futures moved up at midday Asian hours as investors awaited the release of several data points, including inflation, personal income, consumer spending and consumer sentiment.

Overnight stateside, the S&P 500 rose to within a whisker of a new record high after White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt downplayed the impending start of the tariff deals, which have weighed on investor sentiment.

July 8 is when the so-called liberation day tariffs are set to take effect after a 90-day pause, and July 9 is the deadline for an EU deal to avoid 50% tariffs.

“The deadline is not critical,” said Leavitt. “Perhaps it could be extended, but that’s a decision for the president to make.”

The S&P 500 climbed 0.8% to close at 6,141.02, bringing its gain on the week to 2.9% and putting it just a few points away from its intraday all-time high of 6,147.43 in late February.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.97% to 20,167.91, also inches away from a new record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 404.41 points, or 0.94%, to 43,386.84.

— CNBC’s Brian Evans and Sean Conlon contributed to this report.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rise, surpassing all-time intraday highs

Futures tied to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 hit new records Friday, surpassing all-time intraday highs.

This comes ahead of a slew of data releases including inflation numbers, as the market overcomes challenges including tariff fights, wars and sticky inflation.

S&P 500 futures climbed 0.11% to hit 6,202.00 at 12:55 am Eastern Time, breaking the intraday all-time high hit in late February of 6,147.43. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.11%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 62 points, or 0.14%.

— Amala Balakrishner

Hong Kong and Chinese stocks fall in choppy trade

Hong Kong and Chinese stocks fell in choppy trade Friday after Beijing and the U.S. confirmed details of their trade deal.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index ended the day 0.17% lower while China’s CSI 300 index fell 0.61%.

The three worst performers on the Hang Seng index were China Life Insurance, which declined 2.23%, China Resources Land which dropped 2.55%, and Budweiser Brewing Company which fell 2.49%.

— Amala Balakrishner

Japan’s Nikkei 225 closes at six-month high

Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 1.43% higher at a six-month record of 40,150.79 on Friday, per FactSet data.

Still, the 225-stock average was down 0.78% since the start of the year.

The best-performing stocks on the index were, Disco Corp which rose 7.5%, Sumitomo Metal Mining which gained 6.87% and Sumitomo Pharma which advanced 6.62%, LSEG data showed.

— Amala Balakrishner

Xiaomi shares surge nearly 8% to hit record high in early trade

Shares of Hong Kong-listed Xiaomi surged as much as nearly 8% to hit a record high in early trade Friday following the launch of its new luxury electric vehicle.

The Chinese smartphone company unveiled its luxury YU7 SUV on Thursday at a starting price of 253,500 yuan ($35,322), lower than that of its rival Tesla’s Model Y, which starts at 263,500 yuan in China, Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun pointed out.

— Amala Balakrishner

Japan’s Nikkei 225 share average crosses 40,000 mark, hits 6-month high

Japan’s Nikkei 225 extended gains Friday after hitting a five-month high in its previous session.

The 225-stock share average climbed 1.46% to 40,162.49, as of 11 a.m. local time, to hit its highest level since Dec. 27, 2024.

The benchmark also crossed the 40,000 mark for the first time since Jan. 7, per FactSet data.

The best-performing stocks on the index were Kawasaki Heavy Industries which surged 7.75%, Disco Corp which rose 7.11%, and Sumitomo Pharma which advanced 6.72%, LSEG data showed.

— Amala Balakrishner

Japan’s May retail sales rise at slowest pace in three months

Japan’s retail sales rose 2.2% year on year in May, compared to the 3.3% increase seen in the month before, according to data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry released Friday.

The latest reading is the lowest in three months and missed the 2.7% rise forecast by economists polled by Reuters, LSEG data shows.

— Amala Balakrishner

Japan’s May jobless rate unchanged at 2.5%

Japan’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.5% in May, according to government data released on Friday. This reading is in line with estimates forecasted in a Reuters poll.

However, there were 124 job openings for every 100 job seekers in April, down from 126 in the previous month, which matched the predictions by economists polled by Reuters.

— Amala Balakrishner

Tokyo’s core inflation rises at a slower pace in June

Japan’s Tokyo core consumer price index, excluding fresh food and fuel, rose 3.1% year on year in June, slower than the 3.6% increase seen in the previous month, according to data released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on Friday.

The latest reading is also slower than the 3.3% gain forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

Meanwhile, the headline inflation for Japan’s capital in June was 3.1% year on year, down from 3.4% in the month before.

Tokyo inflation data is considered a key indicator of overall price growth in Japan. The index is closely watched by the Bank of Japan as a broader price trend indicator.

— Amala Balakrishner