The road to Damascus was surprisingly short. On Sunday, Syrian rebel groups took control of the capital after a lightning-fast offensive across the country. Dictator Bashar al-Assad abdicated power and left Syria, according to Russia, his most powerful patron. How did this happen so swiftly after such a long period of stasis in Syria’s thirteen-year civil war? And what comes next for Syria, the Middle East, and the external powers that have been shaping events there? Below, our experts answer these urgent questions and others.

Click to jump to an expert analysis:

Rich Outzen: The Middle East’s power balance has rapidly shifted. The US will need a new strategy.

Qutaiba Idlbi: Assad’s fall is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the region

Jonathan Panikoff: A moment for Israel and Gulf states to reshape the region’s future rather than react to it

Gissou Nia: Assad should still be held accountable under international law. Here’s how.

R. Clarke Cooper: Russia is losing its Middle Eastern power projection—and great-power claims

Mark N. Katz: Assad’s fall may not be a total loss for Putin

Danny Citrinowicz: With its proxies crumbling, Iran will rethink its security strategy

Emily Milliken: Will Yemen’s Houthi rebels be the next Iranian proxy to fall?

Thomas S. Warrick: Postwar planning for Syria is now at the top of the agenda

Arwa Damon: Among Syrians, there is a sense that nothing is guaranteed and everything is possible

Sarah Zaaimi: The new Syria could normalize relations with Israel and reshuffle the region

Richard LeBaron: Arab leaders won’t like the shattering of Syrian stability

Karim Mezran: Libya offers important lessons for Syria’s next steps

Joze Pelayo: The new Syria can be a friend to the US—if the Trump administration seizes the moment

Alex Plitsas: There is much to be done to prevent a terror sanctuary from emerging

Nicholas Blanford: Hezbollah is now in the worst position of its four-decade history

Daniel Mouton: There are three scenarios for Syria’s future—and the US can shape which one emerges

Alia Brahimi: The lesson for other Arab regimes—illegitimate governments cannot be propped up forever

The Middle East’s power balance has rapidly shifted. The US will need a new strategy.

The fall of the Assad regime less than two weeks into a coordinated assault by a broad array of opposition groups has, with shocking speed, changed the map and power balance in the Middle East and beyond. The long suffering of the Syrian people under a brutal regime that killed, tortured, dispossessed, and exiled millions of its people has ended. The Iranian hegemonic project in Syria, too, has ended, and with it Hezbollah’s privileged position. While the future of Russian bases, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in northeast Syria, interim governance, counter-terror activities, and Syria’s new role in the region may take months to take shape, it is clear today that Syria will be ruled by an opposition coalition with the support of a majority of Syrians.

Several analytic toplines stand out at this early stage. First, Assad’s hold on power was far more tenuous than was broadly perceived internationally, especially by those counseling reconciliation and normalization. Second, Iran and Russia have suffered a dramatic loss of influence in Syria and the region as a result of wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, making it impossible for them to save Assad in 2024 as they did in 2014-15. Third, Turkey is the only country that seems to have had a winning strategy for Syria: opposing Assad while negotiating with his backers, hosting refugees, supporting the opposition politically and militarily, and combating the People’s Defense Units (YPG), an offshoot of the anti-Turkey terror group Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), in northern Syria. Ankara now has unrivaled economic, diplomatic, and military leverage over the stabilization and rebuilding process, and the goodwill of an overwhelming number of Syrians. Fourth, the US approach to Syria for the past decade—tolerating Assad and his Iranian patrons, hyper-focusing on the Islamic State, providing humanitarian assistance but ceasing political and military aid to the opposition, giving open-ended support to the YPG/PKK—has collapsed. Washington, and Jerusalem, will have to come up with a coherent and constructive approach to the new management in Damascus.

—Rich Outzen is a geopolitical consultant and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Turkey Program with thirty-two years of government service both in uniform and as a civilian.

Assad’s fall is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the region

The Assad regime, which has ruled Syria since 1971, was deeply authoritarian, a key part of Iran’s regional influence and the destabilization of the region, and the author of countless human rights abuses. Its collapse presents both challenges and opportunities for Syria, the region, and the international community.

Syria

The fall of the Assad regime could pave the way for political reform, democratization, and the rebuilding of a war-torn nation. With Assad gone without resistance, there is an opportunity to create an inclusive government that represents Syria’s ethnically and religiously diverse population, fosters economic recovery, and allows refugees and internally displaced persons to return. The Biden administration should work with international partners to support a transition to such a government, and ensure that all stakeholders, including opposition groups, civil society, and minority communities, have a voice in shaping Syria’s future. The Biden administration should also prioritize immediate stabilization and humanitarian funding to rebuild infrastructure, provide healthcare, and support the momentum for a quick return of refugees and displaced persons. The resumption of the United Nations (UN)-led Damascus-based humanitarian response across Syria to prevent the situation morphing into chaos is also an important step to support.

While engaging with Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), a US- and UN-designated terrorist organization, will present its challenges, the designation presents important leverage for the United States and international partners. The Trump administration, through dialogue with Turkey, could use that leverage to ensure HTS walks the walk as an acceptable actor within the Syrian scene and affirm it is no longer threatening US or regional security. The next US administration, working through international organizations, should also focus on fostering economic recovery and preventing the re-emergence of extremist groups.

The region

Assad’s fall completely disrupts the influence of Iran and Hezbollah, which have heavily supported and depended on the Assad regime. It will also decrease sectarian tensions fueled by the regime’s survival, reducing the risk of regional spillover conflicts. The United States should use this opportunity to coordinate a more firm regional policy toward Iran’s malign activities. Moreover, a power vacuum in Syria could lead to regional instability and risk Syria becoming a field for regional competition over hegemony, potentially creating more chaos and empowering extremist groups if not appropriately managed.

A stable, post-Assad Syria could catalyze peace and cooperation among neighboring states, but that requires serious diplomatic engagement from the United States with the region. To that end, the United States should engage in multilateral diplomacy with Turkey and Qatar and mediate responses with key regional stakeholders, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, and Jordan, to ensure a coordinated approach to Syria’s stabilization. Encouraging dialogue between adversarial states could also help reduce tensions and foster cooperative security arrangements.

The United States

For the United States, Assad’s collapse helps counter terrorism, curb Iranian influence, and promote stability in the Middle East. The fall of Assad will end his regime’s policy of sponsoring terrorism, which lasted for decades. It will weaken alliances between Iranian proxies and diminish the power of Russia in the region. However, it also poses the risk of prolonged instability, requiring the United States to engage diplomatically in shaping the outcome. US sanctions could be a helpful tool if sanctions removal could be linked with concrete progress toward a stable and inclusive governance model that contributes to the region’s stability.

The fall of the Assad regime presents an opportunity to address longstanding issues in Syria and the region. However, it is not a panacea and could lead to further instability if not carefully managed. The Biden and Trump administrations must adopt a balanced and strategic approach, focusing on inclusive governance, humanitarian support, and regional stability. An opportunity of the kind that now presents itself in Syria comes only once.

—Qutaiba Idlbi is a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs where he leads the Council’s work on Syria.

A moment for Israel and Gulf states to reshape the region’s future rather than react to it

The overthrow of the Syrian regime was so long coming and yet, shockingly, so rapidly achieved. The fall of Assad provides immediate closure on his rule in Syria, even as his horrific brutality will continue to echo for decades. But the sudden end of the Assad era leaves open the question of what comes next—with significant reasons for caution and concern that there could be fragmentation and chaos in the country. But no matter what follows in Syria, the implications of Assad’s departure will reverberate throughout the region.

For Israel, the overthrow of the regime is almost certain to be seen with mixed emotions, as the Israelis are uncertain if the devil they know will ultimately be replaced by a new devil they won’t. But there is opportunity, as well. Israel is unlikely to take a public victory lap but is entitled to one. The reality is that it was Israeli strikes in Lebanon over the last few months against a wide range of Hezbollah officials and weapons caches, and strikes in Syria preventing resupply to Hezbollah, that weakened the group to the point that Syrian opposition forces felt confident they could take advantage and try to capture Aleppo. Doing so required opposition forces to be confident that there wouldn’t be (sufficient) reinforcements to the Assad regime from Hezbollah, as had been a key issue in the past.

While Israel may not have intended or planned for the Syrian opposition to take advantage and use this development to overthrow the regime, Israel would be wise to immediately leverage it as a point of commonality and use it to seek out a quiet, private engagement with emerging leaders. If Israel wants to better ensure its security in the north, it should reach private, serious agreements with a new Syrian government that the country won’t be used to transfer weapons to Hezbollah to rebuild the group. Having a Lebanon that is in line with the Taif agreement and not dominated by Hezbollah, and a Syria not allied with Iran, would better ensure Israel’s long-term peace and security than any amount of interdiction or other strikes could.

Gulf states—some of which had assumed the Assad regime was here to stay and re-welcomed him and Syria into the Arab League—are likely to have mixed reactions about his fall and the next steps they should take. While Doha might be more inclined to provide financial resources for whatever government emerges in Damascus, long-standing concerns by Abu Dhabi and Riyadh over Islamist-led governments, combined with a reluctance simply to give away free money, as opposed to investing in countries, may cause them both to wait to see what leadership actually emerges in Syria.

It’s too early to know if the overthrow of the Assad regime will bring greater prosperity to the Syrian people and security to the region—ultimately the Syrian people will determine their future governance. But moments like this are rare and all too fleeting. If Israel, Gulf states, and other regional actors are wise, they’ll take this moment as an opportunity to try to shape the region’s future and not just react to it.

—Jonathan Panikoff is the director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and a former deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East at the US National Intelligence Council.

Assad should still be held accountable under international law. Here’s how.

Syrians have worked thirteen long years to take down their dictator—and an even longer fifty-plus years if you count the whole of the now defunct Assad dynasty. The international community must center Syrians in this moment, respect their aspirations for their country, and support them in achieving the pluralistic vision of a free, democratic Syria that so many fought for with their lives and livelihoods.

Even before the shock of Assad’s overthrow has worn off, Syrians who have spent more than a decade working on political processes, justice initiatives, and social change are swinging into action to realize the goals of their hard-won revolution.

On the justice front, the international community, global institutions, and national courts can take immediate action to support Syrians.

First, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) can hold Assad and his former officials to account by swiftly opening a preliminary examination into transboundary crimes in the Syrian conflict. The ICC’s mandate in the matter would be limited to crimes against humanity of deportation, persecution, and other inhumane acts committed against Syrian civilians who fled to Jordan, an ICC member state. However, initiating a preliminary examination into these crimes would send a strong signal that the ICC is fit for purpose and that Assad will not continue to enjoy impunity for some of the worst crimes committed in this century. And ICC member states can support this push by making their own referrals to the court, similar to their referrals on Ukraine, Palestine and Afghanistan. In tandem, efforts should be made to encourage any interim government in Syria to accept the jurisdiction of the court, similar to how Ukraine did in 2014, with a path to eventual ICC membership once a proper governance structure is established and laws passed.

Second, France can proceed with its Assad case. In June a French appeals court upheld an arrest warrant against Assad, then a sitting head of state, for chemical weapons attacks against Syria’s civilian population. This was precedent setting, due to questions around Assad’s head of state immunity. With that question no longer in dispute, the proceedings should move ahead and with the option for in absentia trials in the French system—where the defendant does not have to physically appear. This means that Assad’s reported presence in Moscow with a refusal to appear or inability to be extradited will be irrelevant to evidence being heard on this critical chapter in Syria’s conflict. This case in France is just one of many universal jurisdiction processes that are currently done, in progress, or anticipated in national courts with the ability to prosecute alleged perpetrators in the Syrian conflict for war crimes and crimes against humanity. All those processes must continue and be supported by outside countries, particularly as more former Assad regime officials responsible for violations may try to leave Syria in this moment.

Lastly, there will be open questions about what will happen to the case that The Netherlands and Canada have brought against the Assad regime at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for violations of the Convention against Torture. Because the ICJ adjudicates disputes between states and not against individuals, Assad himself would not “stand trial” there—rather this will fall into a new twist on a gray area that other country disputes have found themselves in, such as those involving the former Yugoslavia, Myanmar, and the Taliban. Either way, Syrian victims and survivors should be centered in these considerations and all attempts made to secure justice and redress for them.

—Gissou Nia is the director of the Strategic Litigation Project at the Atlantic Council. She previously worked on crimes against humanity cases before the International Criminal Court and is counsel on submissions to the ICC Office of the Prosecutor.

Russia is losing its Middle Eastern power projection—and great-power claims

The liberation of Damascus by Syrian rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is designated by the United States as a terrorist group, reflects the increasing degradation of the multinational ground forces supporting the Assad regime. But it also reflects a likely catastrophic loss of Russia’s significant investment in the Assad regime and Russia’s foothold in the Mediterranean.

The collapse of the Assad regime represents a contraction of Russia’s ability to project power in the region—and thus its claim of being a great power. Russia may now face losing a warm-water naval base as well as an air base. The damage to Moscow’s ability to maneuver in Africa and the Mediterranean may have a strategic impact on Russian influence across the world.

—R. Clarke Cooper is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and is the founder and president of Guard Hill House, LLC. He previously served as assistant secretary for political-military affairs at the US Department of State.

Assad’s fall may not be a total loss for Putin

The fall of Syria’s Assad regime, which Moscow had backed for so many years, is a severe blow to Russian influence in the Middle East. There is, however, one silver lining in it for Moscow: the fall of the pro-Russian Assad regime will not lead to its replacement by a pro-Western regime, as occurred in the “color revolutions” of earlier years. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ongoing good relations with other Arab governments—including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Egypt—are also likely to remain strong.

The real question now is whether Russia will be able to keep its naval and air base in Syria. The anti-Assad forces that have just prevailed may not be inclined to let them stay—especially since Russian warplanes based in Syria had repeatedly bombed them right up until recently. If, however, a power struggle now ensues among the victors in Syria, this may provide Moscow with an opportunity to work with some against others. One possibility is Russian support for an Alawite statelet along the Mediterranean coast where its two bases are located (the Alawite minority was the backbone of the Assad regime). Moscow can even cite US support for the Syrian Kurdish statelet in northeastern Syria as setting a precedent for Russia doing something similar for the Alawites.

Still, Moscow retaining its naval and air base may not be possible, either because a new Sunni-dominated Syrian government proves to be strong and expels the Russians or because Syria descends into such chaos that the safety of the bases cannot be maintained.

—Mark N. Katz is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs and professor emeritus of government and politics at the George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government.

With its proxies crumbling, Iran will rethink its security strategy

The fall of Assad is another nail in the coffin of Iran’s Axis of Resistance, which will prompt Tehran to reconsider its security strategy.

In a matter of weeks, Iran lost its pillars in the Axis of Resistance. After the heavy blow that Hezbollah suffered at the hands of Israel, the fall of Assad is a fatal strike on Iran’s influence efforts in the Middle East. There is of course a connection between the two, since it is clear that the weakness of Hezbollah and especially the elimination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was personally committed to saving Assad, accelerated the overthrow of the Syrian regime.

It is difficult to overstate the importance of the Assad regime to Iran. Without him, Iran’s ability to rebuild Hezbollah’s power has weakened dramatically, as has its ability to threaten Israel from this arena. But above all, Syria enabled the same territorial continuity from Iran to Lebanon that established the “Shia crescent” and gave Iran unprecedented strategic depth while keeping the wars away from its borders.

But the collapse of the regime shows how much the tools in Iran’s hands to save Assad without Hezbollah were almost non-existent. This fact also indicates Iran’s weakness and its limited ability to influence what happens in the Middle East without its proxy. Now Iran will have to calculate a new course and find a solution that will strengthen its ability to deter Israel and the United States on its own, with no real support of its proxies.

Iran will likely now seek to strengthen its conventional capabilities, including fast-tracking its Su-35 deal with Russia, rebuilding its air defense system, and replacing its missiles that were damaged in the Israeli attack. But Tehran will also likely think about whether to update its nuclear strategy, either to advance toward a nuclear bomb or to submit more significant compromises to the West in hope of reaching a nuclear agreement that will reduce the danger of an external attack on Iran. And so, the dramatic events in Syria also require a focus on what is happening in the decision-making circle in Tehran.

—Danny Citrinowicz is a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs and a member of the Atlantic Council’s Iran Strategy Project working group. He previously served for twenty-five years in a variety of command positions units in Israel Defense Intelligence.

Will Yemen’s Houthi rebels be the next Iranian proxy to fall?

The fall of the Assad regime removes yet another major node in Iran’s network of allies and proxies, making the Houthi rebels in Yemen an even more indispensable ally. Yemen’s Houthis and their leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, have already assumed a more prominent role within Iran’s Axis of Resistance after the loss of key leaders within Hamas and Hezbollah such as Yahya Sinwar and Hassan Nasrallah. The loss of the Assad regime will strain Iran’s presence and influence in Syria, meaning that Tehran may double down on its support for the Houthis—who have continued claiming attacks on Israel and international maritime traffic in recent weeks—as a means to maintain influence in the region.

However, the regime’s ability to provide the Houthis with resources—including arms shipments—could be impacted due to possible disruptions to Iran’s supply routes that run through Syria as well as Iraq and Lebanon. At the same time, Yemeni government forces and their allies in the region may find inspiration in the Syrian rebels’ success in overthrowing the Assad regime and undertake a new effort to militarily expel the Houthis in Yemen, potentially reigniting the war after almost three years of relative calm in the country.

—Emily Milliken is the associate director of media and communications for the N7 Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs.

Postwar planning for Syria is now at the top of the agenda

The United States was not directly involved in the ouster of Assad, but the United States has a huge stake in what comes next. A more stable Syria that frees itself from Iranian and Russian dependence, doesn’t export terrorism, lets its refugees come home, stops being a transit country for aid to Hezbollah that threatens Israel, stops treating the drug Captagon as a source of foreign exchange, and eventually lives alongside Israel in peace, perhaps joining the Abraham Accords in time: all these unthinkable things are now possible. But this will not happen spontaneously, without outside help and support. Postwar planning for Syria needs to go into high gear.

The basic infrastructure exists to give immediate aid to the Syrian people, but it needs funding and political support from the United States, along with European and Middle Eastern countries. The immediate question for the Biden administration is whether to allow the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and other US-backed aid agencies to send urgent help into Syria. And while the United States has limited ties with HTS, which Washington has designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, HTS is not the only group in the Syrian opposition that now controls Damascus. Who is dominant among those groups depends on who gets what kind of external aid. While Turkey’s aid to these groups is done to support Turkey’s national interests, most of Turkey’s interests and the United States’ are aligned in western Syria. The United States can cooperate closely with Jordan and Israel, with whom its interests are also aligned.

The incoming Trump administration will have different voices competing for Trump’s ear. The isolationist wing will be arguing that other governments should take the lead in postwar Syria. While those voices are not totally wrong, other voices will remind Trump that weakening Iranian influence, supporting Israel’s security, and peace in Lebanon are, collectively, one of the biggest wins that a Trump administration could hope to achieve. Peace in the Middle East is one of Trump’s greatest ambitions, and if he listens to the right advisers, he could go a long way toward achieving it.

—Thomas S. Warrick is a nonresident senior fellow in the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and a former deputy assistant secretary for counterterrorism policy in the US Department of Homeland Security.

Among Syrians, there is a sense that nothing is guaranteed and everything is possible

There is a certain pragmatism to what we are seeing now in Syria, not just in how the fighting forces coordinated but also in the attempt to preserve a temporary governance structure. The lessons of past failures are being taken into consideration, although it’s too soon to tell if it’s just lip service or if it will hold. What has transpired over recent days, though, is in many ways uniquely Syrian—coming at a time when most of the world had shown a willingness to write off Syria and the hundreds of thousands killed, tens of thousands detained, and millions displaced, and to “normalize” relations with the Assad regime.

“Stay out of it” is a message I’m hearing from a lot of Syrians who have already learned the bitter lessons of both abandonment and extreme meddling by external actors. Syrians will be quite reluctant to trust any form of outside interference. But at the same time there is an awareness that the country’s new leadership will need to make compromises and bargains. There is a recognition that nothing is guaranteed, and that Syria’s future is filled with risks and the potential of more violence—be it in the form of a civil war or Israel encroaching on more Syrian territory. There is a certain wariness, apprehension, and anxiety coupled with the elation that we’re seeing. No one knows at this stage what is going to happen next. Everyone is spinning, from those in the streets to those in governments around the world.

—Arwa Damon is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs; the president and founder of the International Network for Aid, Relief, and Assistance (INARA); and a former international correspondent for CNN.

The new Syria could normalize relations with Israel and reshuffle the region

After more than sixty-one years of the Ba’ath party’s rule and thirteen years since the uprising ignited in Daraa, Syria’s agony has finally reached a denouement, and the Syrian people can finally obtain closure and reclaim agency over their political future. While other Arab Spring countries were able to topple tyrannical leaderships and change regimes with varying success or failure, Syrians were held hostage by foreign powers’ interference and calculus, which maintained Assad at the top of a failed political system and forcibly displaced more than fourteen million Syrians internally and externally. These events also mark the end of the last of the Nasserist Arab nationalist regimes in the region—the end of an entire despotic ideology.

The current political alternative to Assad is far from ideal as the opposition remains fragmented. Rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani has a questionable past tied to international terrorism, and the rebel factions have various allegiances to regional powers, especially Turkey. However, the Syrian people should be allowed to determine their own sovereignty and to establish the transition of power they wish for their country without international guardianship. They will also have to resolve some existential questions about relations with their immediate neighbors. It is not out of the realm of possibility to imagine new leaders in Damascus normalizing relations with Israel and reshuffling regional dynamics to mark a true rupture with the Ba’athist doctrine.

Once the dust settles, there will surely be arduous negotiations over Syria’s future among the new masters of the land, yet initial indications seem promising. So far, the rebels are maintaining a plural and inclusive discourse calling for national unity and a peaceful transition of power. Jolani gave instructions not to desecrate shrines and minority cultural heritage sites, such as the Sayyeda Zaynab sanctuary. Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) militants had vandalized the shrine, a revered location for Shia Muslims, and the incident became one of the reasons Shia militias, especially Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units, engaged in fighting in Syria. Even the traditionally pro-Assad Alawite cities, including Latakia, seem to be relieved that the Assad era is over, which is a positive indication that minority groups would likely join the political transition rather than engage in yet another costly civil war.

—Sarah Zaaimi is a nonresident senior fellow for North Africa and deputy director for communications at the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East programs.

Arab leaders won’t like the shattering of Syrian stability

Regimes in the Middle East most value stability. Political change of any kind, violent or non-violent, is considered a threat, not an opportunity. So there will be no congratulations for the Syrian people emerging from Arab leaders and no rush to embrace a new regime that is likely to be dominated by Sunni fundamentalists. There is unlikely to be a rapid response to the needs of the Syrian people as they emerge from the nearly fifty-four-year rule of the Assad family. Most Arab states were openly supportive of Bashar al-Assad, preferring a cruel, Iranian-supported dictatorship to any other options.

Among Arab states, perhaps only Qatar, which supplied aid to some Syrian opposition forces, will step forward to help now. Syria’s neighbor Israel has long preferred the quiet that the Assad family was able to impose on their border and will be wary of what comes next. Most Arab states (and Israel) will also view the revolution in Syria as a net plus for Turkey and therefore a net minus for Arab interests. Meanwhile, Assad’s supporters in Moscow and Tehran will be left to wonder how things went so badly so quickly.

—Richard LeBaron is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs. He is a former US ambassador to Kuwait and a former deputy chief of mission at the US embassy in Israel.

Libya offers important lessons for Syria’s next steps

It’s true that making comparisons between different countries is always a delicate and insidious effort. Nevertheless, the recent events in Syria bring to mind the events in Libya that brought the Qaddafi regime to a bloody end in 2011. Has Libya’s recent history anything to teach to Syria and its people?

While joyful manifestations and apparent happiness are welcome and to be expected, they should be limited in time and scope so as not to alienate and marginalize the supporters of the previous regime (even if they only consist of a small minority). This would with time form a hardcore group of opponents to any process of opening up and developing institutions. In other words, regimes that have held power for decades have deep roots, and they can often do fatal damage in the aftermath of their ouster.

A second lesson Libya can teach Syria is how to deal with foreign powers, whether regional or global. Libyans allowed foreign powers to divide and separate them in order for each one of them to exercise at least a veto power on political and economic developments. The new Syrian elites should strive to find a common denominator among themselves, and instead of rushing to elections they should organize a National Reconciliation Conference to draft the main principles and values that apply to all Syrians. Only after this moment of deep reflection and foundation-building of a new national interest based on a shared identity should the country proceed to elections.

—Karim Mezran is director of the North Africa Initiative and resident senior fellow with the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council.

The new Syria can be a friend to the US—if the Trump administration seizes the moment

The transition in Syria presents an opportunity for the United States to regain influence in Damascus and encourage any emerging Syrian authority to contribute to regional stability, coexistence, and peace. The incoming Trump administration should prioritize assisting a transitional government in holding free and fair elections, enabling Syrians—who have endured years of brutality under dictatorship—to shape their own future. A future Syrian administration is likely to welcome US support and may even become a friend of the United States, given the widespread animosity toward Iran and Russia due to their support for the Assad regime.

Will the new administration see this opportunity? At forums I have attended across the region over the past month—from Sir Bani Yas in Abu Dhabi to the Middle East Policy Forum in Dohuk and the Doha Forum in Qatar—policymakers and experts consistently expressed concern over the unpredictability of President-elect Donald Trump’s approach to the Middle East. His policies remain a mystery, likely subject to rapid change depending on the influence of his advisers and who’s the last person in the room with him. However, Trump needs to recognize the value in supporting an orderly transition and a stable future for Syria, where Iran and Russia’s influence has been significantly diminished.

The Trump administration should also seize the opportunity by facilitating dialogue between the new Syrian administration and Israel. And it should collaborate with Qatar and Turkey, which played critical roles in the rapid progress leading to this moment, to help reintegrate Syria into the rules-based international order.

—Joze Pelayo is an associate director at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative.

There is much to be done to prevent a terror sanctuary from emerging

On Sunday, Syrian rebel factions collectively defeated and ended the regime of Assad after a long and bloody civil war. Assad and his father before him were dictators who hailed from the Alawite Shia religious minority that accounts for approximately 10 percent of the Syrian population. They ruled with an iron fist, brutalizing and oppressing the remaining 90 percent of the population.

Assad’s departure is being widely celebrated by all facets of Syrian society. After thirteen years of fierce fighting, rebel groups of various ideologies, ethnicities, religions, and political agendas achieved what no state power has been successful at doing through the elements of power they have sought to employ.

With the fall of the regime, there will no longer be a Shia government in charge of Syria. This effectively ends the famed “Shia Crescent,” which allowed Iran to influence if not control foreign and security policy stretching from Tehran through Baghdad to Damascus and southern Lebanon. Unlike in Iraq, democratic elections in Syria will not produce a Shia-led government given the country’s demographics. This will make it more difficult for Iran to rearm and support Hezbollah and other proxies in the region, as Syria had served as a logistics hub for Iranian weapons. The land and air bridge that allowed Iran to arm and resupply Hezbollah and other terror groups and militias in the region is gone.

While there is much to celebrate—the end of Iran’s stranglehold, the promise of newfound freedom for the Syrian people—the road ahead is fraught with uncertainty and risk. In the past twenty-four hours, a rebel faction with historic ties to al Qaeda that was designated as a terrorist organization by the United States since 2018 has taken control of Damascus. Israel has seized territory in the buffer zone with Syria and bombed strategic weapons sites. And Turkey has bombed Syrian Kurdish rebels backed by the United States, according to reports I have seen from the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.

The international community should seek to achieve the following objectives in Syria to prevent a failed state that can be used as a sanctuary and launching point for transnational terrorism:

Prevent an escalation between rebel factions and encourage unity in victory

Deny terror groups access to strategic weapons and systems left by the regime

Protect ethnic and religious minorities

Encourage and enable democratic institutions and elections

—Alex Plitsas is a nonresident senior fellow with the Middle East Programs’ N7 Initiative and former chief of sensitive activities for special operations and combating terrorism in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

Hezbollah is now in the worst position of its four-decade history

BEIRUT—The stunning and sudden collapse of the Assad regime threatens to greatly complicate the geostrategic links between Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon and raises the possibility that the Iranian-led coalition known as the Axis of Resistance is coming apart. Since assuming power in July 2000, Assad had been the linchpin connecting Iran in the east of the region to Hezbollah in the west, offering strategic depth, a source of weaponry and political support and serving as a conduit for the transfer of Iranian weapons. The critical importance of the Assad regime to Tehran was amply demonstrated more than a decade ago when Iran and Hezbollah took the unprecedented and controversial step of openly intervening in the Syrian civil war to protect their ally from being overthrown.

Now that Assad and his regime are gone, Hezbollah is isolated in Lebanon at a time when it is recovering from the blows of a devastating thirteen-month war with Israel. The November 27 ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah calls for the prevention of weapons being transferred into Lebanon from Syria. Although Hezbollah has said it will abide by the ceasefire agreement, the new realities in Syria suggest that even if the organization wanted to restock its arsenal with weaponry coming from Syria, it may no longer be possible. The collapse of the Assad regime will likely lead to the eventual emergence of a new form of governance that better reflects the Sunni-majority demographics of Syria, one that is unlikely to view Iran and Hezbollah with much warmth. That and the continued aggressive behavior of the Israel Defense Forces in Lebanon (the ceasefire notwithstanding) places Hezbollah in the most uncomfortable position in its forty-two-year history.

—Nicholas Blanford is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs.

There are three scenarios for Syria’s future—and the US can shape which one emerges

Given the enormity of the Assad family’s fall from power, it is impossible to predict the full extent of the effects on the region. Three possible futures await Syria:

A perfect world: On the surface, the fall of the Assad regime appears to be a net positive for the United States and its allies in the region. A cruel despot is gone, and Iran no longer has a land-based supply line to its proxies in Syria and Lebanon. However, this future depends on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the other factions that banded together against Assad choosing to work together and govern responsibly. Due to the multiple groups and external actors in Syria, this path is unlikely to occur absent a responsible guiding hand. Chaos and violence: A more likely scenario, unfortunately, is a culmination of the same societal and religious-ethnic cleavages that have been witnessed across the Middle East because of the Arab Spring. Libya collapsed following the removal of Muammar Gaddafi, Yemen effectively remains mired in internal conflict, while other states in the region have largely recovered from or avoided the effects of the Arab Spring. Syria may follow the path of Libya and descend into chaos. Competition for power among Syria’s different armed groups would create havoc for the Levant region. Factionalization: This future would involve a continuation of many of the present partitions within Syria. While HTS recently expanded its control south through Damascus, other areas of the country remain under the control of other armed groups. Continued disunity and ungoverned spaces will allow for a resurgence of extremist activity, as well as the potential return of Iran and its proxies.

The United States can help determine which future comes to pass. Instead of watching events develop in Syria, the Biden administration could act to shape the initial steps taken by any new governing body in Damascus. First, active US diplomacy and humanitarian assistance could guide a new governing body while reinforcing the principles of inclusion and accountability. Second, Syria needs considerable reconstruction assistance. The amount of need will far outstrip the organizational ability of any new government, as well as the absorptive capacity of remaining Syrian institutions. The United States, other countries, and international organizations can fill organizational gaps and accelerate reconstruction efforts. Third, millions of Syrian refugees will want to return home and are more likely to do so in an environment of good governance and active reconstruction. Putting Syria on the path to recovery is the best insurance to prevent a return of Iran and its proxies, as well as a return of extremists operating out of ungoverned spaces.

Initial steps taken by the White House and the State Department will be instructive. If we see calls between US President Joe Biden and regional heads of state, and if we see regional diplomacy led by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, then it will be an indication that the Biden administration is trying to fashion a positive future for Syria. Finally, if we see the appointment of someone resembling a Syria reconstruction envoy in the waning days of the Biden administration, this person may be able to use the intervening weeks before the Trump administration takes office to help guide the new government as well as channel regional assistance to Syria.

The region recognizes the need to rehabilitate Syria, so there should be no expectation the United States needs to pay for all of Syrian reconstruction. But the United States should take immediate steps to avoid the dire circumstances that played out in other post-Arab Spring countries. There’s no reason Syria’s future should be worse than its past.

—Daniel E. Mouton is a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative of the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs. He served on the National Security Council from 2021 to 2023 as the director for defense and political-military policy for the Middle East and North Africa for Coordinator Brett McGurk.

The lesson for other Arab regimes—illegitimate governments cannot be propped up forever

Since 2011, Syrians have dealt with a double moral calamity: the sectarian vengeance of an endlessly brutal regime and the indifference of the outside world, even as Russian military and mercenary forces swept in to rescue it from collapse, and children were tortured, starved, or killed in staggering numbers.

As the Syrian people convulse with rapture and relief, the celebrations are no doubt stalked by sorrow and made heavy by the weight of more than a decade of darkness and loss. The joy of the present must also be tempered by a lack of clarity around what is to come. There are many moving parts in Syria right now, which means that there are many possible futures.

While Syria’s future is uncertain, there are clear messages for other Arab regimes. For example, rival governments in Libya and military rulers in Egypt have similarly hollowed out the state, turning to smuggling and crime to remain afloat and apart from their subjects, and inviting comparisons with gangsterism and the mafia. Recent events in Syria call into question the sustainability of this path, along with the broader strategy of accursing the population and spurning the very concept of legitimacy.

The fall of Assad also calls into doubt the value and dependability of a defense alliance with Russia, as well as the ultimate capacity of foreign militaries, militias, and mercenaries to indefinitely prop up governments that have been rejected by their people.

The seemingly removed and unconnected events of Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022 and Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, have resulted in a butterfly effect in Syria, with consequences that will cascade through the region.

As for the United States, while Trump has made plain that he is not interested in developments in Syria, it is likely that, one way or the other, developments in Syria will be interested in him.

—Alia Brahimi is a nonresident senior fellow in the Middle East Programs and host of the Guns for Hire podcast.

Further reading

Related Experts: Jonathan Panikoff, R. Clarke Cooper, Danny Citrinowicz , Sarah Zaaimi, Richard LeBaron, Karim Mezran, Rich Outzen, Joze Pelayo, Emily Milliken, Mark N. Katz, Thomas S. Warrick, Arwa Damon, Alex Plitsas, Nicholas Blanford, Alia Brahimi, Daniel E. Mouton, Qutaiba Idlbi, and Gissou Nia

Image: A man holds Syrian opposition flags as he celebrates after Syria’s army command notified officers on Sunday that President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year authoritarian rule has ended, a Syrian officer who was informed of the move told Reuters, following a rapid rebel offensive that took the world by surprise, in Aleppo, Syria December 8, 2024. REUTERS/Karam al-Masri

A coalition of Syrian opposition forces took control of Syria’s capital on December 8, 2024, ending more than 60 years of Baath Party rule in the country. Just as important, the fall of Damascus marked the end of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, who inherited the presidency from his father Hafez al-Assad in 2000. What was remarkable in this takeover was the swiftness with which the opposition gained control of the country following its forces’ sweep from both the north and the south toward the capital. Equally remarkable was that the collapse of the regime’s military and security institutions occurred largely without violence, as regime forces ultimately preferred to surrender or melt away than to fight.

While Russian forces—who intervened in 2015 on the side of the regime and saved it from collapse—briefly took part in attacking opposition troops in Aleppo, their role was marginal. The much-vaunted Iranian military support of the Assad regime that was also previously instrumental in Assad’s survival failed to materialize. Hezbollah—which similarly was essential for defending the regime during the Syrian uprising—was not in any shape to undertake the same defense after suffering heavy losses in 14 months of fighting against Israel. In the end, Assad and his regime stood alone and unable to fend off an organized military campaign committed to ending their rule.

It is no exaggeration to state that the collapse of the Syrian regime will have serious repercussions for Syria, the eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East. Arab Center Washington DC (ACW) asked some of its analysts and affiliates to provide short commentaries on what these repercussions may be. Their responses are below.

The Return of Syria’s Displaced

Heba Gowayed, Non-Resident Fellow

The fall of the Asaad regime brings joy to millions of Syrians who have long dreamed of returning home after years as refugees. The path home, however, will be its own uphill battle. At a time when the world faces an unprecedented humanitarian crisis of displacement, Syrians remain the largest displaced group. Thirteen years of protracted violence have forced 14 million people from their homes and destroyed Syria’s infrastructure. Half of those displaced remain inside Syria, where they endure horrific humanitarian conditions. More than 90 percent live below the poverty line. The 5.5 million Syrians who live in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and elsewhere have endured their own pain of marginalization and limited economic opportunities. Now they, and those who have sought refuge in wealthy western countries, have an opportunity to come together and to rebuild the homeland that was taken from them. It is time for the global community that has repeatedly turned its back on Syria to step up to support its returnees on the long road ahead.

Essential Issues Facing Transition from the Assad Regime

Imad K. Harb, Director of Research and Analysis

There is no question that the transition from authoritarian rule in Syria will be a complicated and fraught process because of both the monopolization of the political space by the Baath Party and its personalization under the Assad family dynasty since 1970. But so far, the coalition of forces that swept into power on December 8 appears to understand the complexities and difficulties of transitioning to a stable system that respects plurality in Syrian society and assures stability for Syrians. One important task for the new rulers in Damascus is to devise a clear plan for a transition that includes a temporary government structure to maintain peace and order, to organize an election for a constituent assembly that can serve as an interim legislative body, and to appoint a body of experts to write a new constitution that guarantees freedoms and the democratic process. It is essential that they maintain at least a modicum of order and open channels of communications so that they can debate the many complicated issues that will arise as they begin a new chapter in Syria’s political development.

The Realization of a Dream: A Personal Note

Bahraa Hijazi, Multimedia Specialist

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s brutal regime marks the realization of a dream that Syrians ignited in 2011. This victory over tyranny is monumental, but it carries the weight of unimaginable sacrifices by countless Syrians. To be sure, it is impossible to celebrate without remembering the thousands of lives lost, the loved ones who disappeared, and the detainees who endured unspeakable horrors in Assad’s prisons. My only regret is that I am not physically there with my people to celebrate this historic moment. I wish that my late father, a strong and principled man, could have witnessed this new dawn. I also hope that the new Syria becomes a beacon of freedom, justice, and equality. For justice to be assured, Bashar al-Assad and his henchmen must be held accountable for their crimes against the Syrian people. Now, it is time to rebuild the Syria that we always envisioned—a Syria that we, as free Syrians, can be proud to call home.

Israel and Assad’s Downfall

Khalil E. Jahshan, Executive Director

It has been said that “success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan.” Accordingly, stakeholders in the Middle East are rushing to put their own spin on developments in Syria and to tweak them, if possible, in their political favor. Israel seems to be leading this effort to take full advantage of the situation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasted no time taking credit for the change in Syria that no one, including the Israeli intelligence services, predicted. Surrounded by Israeli flags atop a hill overlooking the Syrian border, Netanyahu hailed the fall of Assad as “historic” and ordered Israeli troops to swiftly seize the demilitarized buffer zone that separated Israel from Syria since the signing of 1974 Disengagement Agreement. In addition to creating facts on the ground, the Israeli prime minister took credit for the demise of the Assad dynasty, claiming that it was the “direct result” of Israel’s war in Lebanon which, according to the pompous Likud leader, militarily diminished both Iran and Hezbollah. What Netanyahu failed to realize is the potential damage that his arrogant paternity claim will cause to the already tense and extremely fragile situation in Syria. These words, in my humble judgement, are destined to come back and haunt him in the future.

Lebanon Is Jubilant and Hopeful

Patricia Karam, Non-Resident Fellow

It is noteworthy that Syrian opposition fighters began their push south from Idlib on the same day that a ceasefire was announced between Israel and Hezbollah, signaling the severe weakening of Iranian influence in Lebanon after a yearlong war between Israel and Hezbollah. Lebanon is keenly watching developments in Syria, as they are likely to have a momentous impact across the Middle East. There are scenes of jubilation in Lebanon over Assad’s fall, given Syria’s near total hegemony over Lebanese domestic and foreign politics until its 2005 ouster from the country. For Lebanon, a successful transition in Damascus will enable millions of Syrian refugees to return home, but a botched one might generate more refugees, adding to the strain on Lebanon’s social fabric and economic conditions. Assad’s fall and the weakening of Iran’s axis of resistance will deal an additional blow to Hezbollah and affect Lebanon’s internal power dynamics. The collapse of the Assad regime leaves Iran more weakened than ever, although not fully disabled, and with its regional influence project critically affected and clearly vulnerable to attacks from Israel.

Biden and Trump React to Assad’s Fall

Annelle Sheline, Non-Resident Fellow

In discussing the fall of the “abhorrent” Assad regime, President Joe Biden described it as “a historic opportunity for the Syrian people.” He also declared that “our approach has shifted the balance of power in the Middle East.” Under Secretary of State John Bass stressed the need for a Syrian-led political solution in line with UN Security Council Resolution 2254 of 2015, which called for a ceasefire and an end to attacks on civilians. Still, on the day after Assad fell, the US Air Force attacked some 75 targets in Syria belonging to the so-called Islamic State—it is not yet clear how many civilians were harmed. In contrast to Biden’s self-congratulatory tone, President-elect Donald Trump was more cautious, posting on X, “In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & the United States should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved!” Trump’s statement reflects the war weariness of many Americans who have expressed discontent with expensive and ineffective American military actions in the Middle East.

Featured image credit: Twitter

Syria’s new government is facing mounting criticism at home over its failure to condemn Israel for violating its air space to attack Iran, with Syrians demanding Damascus leverage its growing diplomatic relations and call for a halt to the breaches.

For a fifth consecutive day, Syrians have looked to the skies, watching as Israeli jets roar high above the clouds as the thuds from explosions bellow out – signs that Iranian drones and missiles have apparently been intercepted by US weaponry over Syria.

While social media has been awash with sarcastic commentary about the hostilities between Israel and Iran – two nations many Syrian revolutionaries view as enemies – the reality on the ground has been marked by anxiety and fear, especially in Syria’s southern provinces near the Israeli border.

Emad al-Basiri, an activist based in Daraa province, told Middle East Eye that fragments from drones and missiles have repeatedly fallen on residential areas, causing widespread alarm.

“People are extremely tense,” Basiri said.

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“The explosions are terrifying. Drones crashing down have destroyed homes and caused agricultural fires,” he added.

Israel’s large-scale assault, which began on 13 June and has targeted Iranian military and nuclear sites, has not lost momentum.

Iran has suffered the losses of its top military commanders and nuclear scientists. Hundreds of civilians have also been killed.

In retaliation, the Islamic Republic has fired hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel, causing widespread devastation in the cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa, and the deaths of dozens.

Syria’s geographic location has made its skies a battleground for the tit-for-tat strikes.

Debris has repeatedly crashed on the ground, particularly in the southern provinces of Quneitra and Daraa – near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

“There is ongoing fear from falling war remnants,” Basiri said, noting that ordinary Syrians felt helpless while the Syrian government was silent on the issue.

No condemnation, no comment

The Syrian government has failed to issue any official condemnations of the violations of its airspace – either by Israel or Iran.

This contrasts with steps taken by neighbouring Iraq, which filed an official complaint with the United Nations after Israeli aircraft crossed its airspace to strike targets in Iran.

‘The Syrian government must step up its diplomatic efforts’ – Fadel Abdul Ghany, Syrian Network for Human Rights

Basiri emphasised that residents in Daraa and Quneitra feel they need protection from the new government that emerged after rebels ousted the Assad dynasty on 8 December, ending the country’s brutal 14-year civil war.

“Syria’s airspace and borders are completely unguarded,” he said, adding that the nearest Syrian security forces are about nine-kilometres from the Israeli border.

“We call on the government to take control of the borders.”

Meanwhile, Israeli patrols have continued to enter Syrian territory, and have carried out dozens of arbitrary arrests and killed one person last week.

Fadel Abdul Ghany, the director of the Syrian Network for Human Rights, told MEE that the Syrian government should file a complaint with the UN Security Council under Articles 35 and 51 of the UN Charter.

These articles allow nations to defend themselves and request international action to halt hostilities on their territory.

“The Syrian government must step up its diplomatic efforts,” Abdul Ghany said.

“It should oppose the militarisation of its airspace, demand a humanitarian flight corridor, and assert its neutrality by rejecting the use of its skies for any hostile actions.”

‘Entirely inadequate’

So far, Syria’s response has been “entirely inadequate,” Abdul Ghany said, adding that the government must coordinate more closely with the Arab League and the European Union to monitor both sides and develop a comprehensive strategy that safeguards Syria’s national interests.

By allowing Israel to bomb Iran, Trump is pushing Tehran to go nuclear Read More »

Samar Abu Raslan, an architect from Sweida, agreed, calling the optics of Syria’s silence alarming.

Syria appears “sick and powerless,” Abu Raslan she told MEE.

“As a Syrian citizen, I want my skies, land, and water protected from all forms of aggression and violation.”

According to Lina, a Damascus-based journalist who declined to give her surname, the new Syrian government’s decision to not even issue a tepid statement was damning.

“The Syrian government doesn’t even issue statements about reserving the right to respond,” she said – a phrase that was repeatedly invoked by the government of now ousted Bashar al-Assad.

She said that even though Syria wasn’t aligned with either of the warring sides, Damascus’ silence illustrated that it was clearly a party to this conflict.

MEE reached out to the Syrian government for comment but did not receive a response by time of publication.

CNN —

Israel struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear, missile and military complex early Friday, in an unprecedented attack that has killed several of Iran’s most powerful figures and plunges the wider Middle East into dangerous new territory.

The strikes on Iran’s nuclear program and senior military leaders could be a turning point in the long-running conflict, with Israel braced for a major Iranian retaliation – and the threat of a wider regional war breaking out now a real risk.

Later Friday morning, that retaliation appeared to be underway after Israel’s military said Iran had launched more than 100 drones toward Israel, and that Israel had begun “intercepting” them outside of its borders.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that Israel will face “severe punishment” for the attacks, and confirmed that a number of Iranian commanders and scientists had been killed. Iran’s Armed Forces spokesperson said both the United States and Israel would “pay dearly,” while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the attack “a declaration of war.”

The US was not involved in the strikes, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, noting that Israel had “advised” the US that it believed the “action was necessary for its self-defense.” On Thursday, President Donald Trump had warned of the possibility of “massive conflict” in the Middle East that could take place “soon.”

Posting on his social media platform, Truth Social, early Friday, Trump urged Iran to agree to a nuclear deal “before there is nothing left,” suggesting that subsequent Israeli attacks on the country could be “even more brutal.”

Washington has long sought to limit Tehran’s nuclear capacity, with the most recent negotiations in Rome last month ending with no agreement. A sixth round of US-Iran talks had been scheduled for Sunday in Oman – it’s not clear if it will go ahead.

Israel’s strikes came shortly after Tehran said that it would ramp up its nuclear activities due to the International Atomic Energy Agency passing a resolution saying that the country was not in compliance with its non-proliferation commitments, senior US officials told CNN.

In a televised address to the nation early Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the military operation had “struck at the head of Iran’s nuclear weaponization program” and targets included Iran’s main enrichment facility in Natanz, Iranian nuclear scientists, and Iran’s ballistic missiles program.

“Moments ago, Israel launched operation Rising Lion, a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival,” Netanyahu said.

“This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat.”

Repeated explosions could be heard in the capital, Tehran, terrifying its residents, and multiple videos geolocated by CNN showed flames and smoke billowing from buildings across the city. Iran’s airspace has also been closed, its civil aviation authority said.

An Israeli military statement later Friday said Israeli fighter jets had also completed a “large-scale strike” on aerial defense arrays in western Iran. “As part of the strikes, dozens of radars and surface-to-air missile launchers were destroyed,” it said.

Several of Iran’s most powerful men have been killed, according to Iranian authorities and state media. They included Gen. Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of the country’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces and the country’s highest-ranking military officer.

Also among the dead are Iran’s former national security chief Ali Shamkhani – a key adviser to Khamenei who served as secretary of the National Security Council for almost a decade – and Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the IRGC’s Air Force, who was killed alongside two other air force commanders. Six of Iran’s nuclear scientists, were killed, state affiliated Tasnim news agency said.

Khamenei appointed new commanders on Friday to head key military entities, including Brig. Gen. Mohammad Pakpour, the new head of the IRGC.

Friday’s strikes suggest Netanyahu saw a window of opportunity to meet Israel’s longstanding objective of obliterating Iran’s nuclear program. Iran is in its weakest military position in decades following crippling economic sanctions, previous Israeli strikes on its air defenses and decimation of its most powerful regional proxies, including Hezbollah.

US officials had previously told CNN that Israeli strikes on Iran would be a brazen break with Trump’s approach on the Middle East.

Trump told CNN on Friday that the US supports Israel and called the strikes on Iran “a very successful attack.”

Several countries voiced alarm and condemnation over Israel’s strikes, with Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry saying the attack undermines Iran’s “sovereignty and security and constitute a clear violation of international laws and norms,” and China’s embassy in Iran calling the situation “severe and complex.”

Residents in Iran faced a long and terrifying night. “People reported the ground shaking, hearing explosions, and jets flying overhead,” Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told CNN.

Azzam, a 35-year-old Iranian citizen who lives close to Saadat Abad in northern Tehran, an area targeted by Israel, told CNN: “I woke up with the whole house shaking. I was very scared, not knowing what had happened.”

Sam, 29, told CNN that he fears further attacks. “I am concerned about the escalation of this, and what this means for us in Tehran.” Like Azzam, he requested anonymity due to concerns for his safety.

Israel declared a state of special emergency, closing its airspace, shutting schools and banning social gatherings. “Tens of thousands” of Israeli soldiers were being called up in preparation for an Iranian retaliation, Israel’s military chief of staff said.

Fears of wider war

Analysts and experts have long warned that Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear capabilities could trigger a massive Iranian retaliation and threaten to tip the region into a full-scale war.

And if Israel and Iran become entangled in wider conflict, it could risk drawing the US into the fray. The US is Israel’s closest ally and biggest weapons supplier, and there are currently about 40,000 US troops across the Middle East, including nearly 4,000 in Iraq and Syria.

Indications of that risk emerged earlier this week as the US ordered the departure of non-essential personnel from locations around the Middle East as intelligence warnings increased that an Israeli strike on Iran was imminent.

Netanyahu has repeatedly pushed for a military option to stop Iran’s nuclear program, and recent US intelligence reports said that Israel was seeking to capitalize on the destruction inflicted after it bombed Iran’s missile production facilities and air defenses in October.

Experts say an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would also likely spell the end of Iran’s nuclear negotiations with the US.

The facility at the heart of Iran’s nuclear ambitions was engulfed in flames on Friday, according to social media images geolocated by CNN and Iranian state television.

The nuclear complex in Natanz, a city about 250 kilometers (150 miles) south of Tehran, is considered Iran’s largest uranium enrichment facility. Analysts say the site is used to develop and assemble centrifuges for uranium enrichment, a key technology that turns uranium into nuclear fuel.

The Iranian atomic energy agency confirmed that the Natanz facility had been damaged. The complex has overground and underground facilities and it’s unclear what was impacted but no casualties were reported, the agency said.

The head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, said there were no elevated radiation levels at Natanz. Other nuclear facilities in Iran, Isfahan and Fordow “have not been impacted,” Grossi added.

‘Explosive drones’ activated

Israel’s Mossad spy agency smuggled weapons into Iran ahead of Friday’s strikes that were used to target its defenses from within, according to an Israeli security official.

The official said that “a base for launching explosive drones was established inside Iran and that the drones were activated during Friday’s attack to target missile launchers at a base near Tehran.”

Israel had also “smuggled precision weapons into central Iran and positioned them near surface-to-air missile systems,” the official said, adding that Israel had deployed strike systems on vehicles.

In this screengrab from social media, smoke is seen rising from Tabriz airport in Iran on June 13, 2025, following Israeli strikes. Reuters

Iran oversees a so-called Axis of Resistance across the region that includes loyal proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as various militia groups in Iraq and Syria. Since Israel’s war in Gaza began in 2023, attacks by those proxy groups have escalated in solidarity with the Palestinians.

Last year Israel and Iran’s years-long cold war erupted into the open with a series of missile strikes from both sides. At the time, the US warned Israel not to strike Iran’s energy or nuclear infrastructure.

Friday’s operation goes much further than previously seen. CNN’s security analyst Beth Sanner said that removing Salami is akin to taking out the US chairman of the joint chiefs of staff: “You can imagine what Americans would do,” she said.

Iran is now “under existential threat” and as such, the Israelis will be expecting “a massive, much bigger retaliation than what they saw last time,” Sanner added.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

Israeli strikes damage Iran’s underground nuclear site, agency says, as Trump issues ominous warning

DUBAI: The International Atomic Energy Agency said Tuesday it believes Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s Natanz enrichment site have had “direct impacts” on the facility’s underground centrifuge halls.

The strikes are part of an air campaign Israel launched against its longtime foe five days ago, targeting Iran’s military and nuclear program.

This marks the first time the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog has assessed damage from the strikes in the underground parts of Natanz, which is the main enrichment facility of Iran’s nuclear program.

“Based on continued analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery collected after Friday’s attacks, the IAEA has identified additional elements that indicate direct impacts on the underground enrichment halls at Natanz,” the agency said.

Already, an above-ground enrichment hall had been destroyed, as well as electrical equipment that powered the facility.

Israel continued to pound Iran Tuesday, while US President Donald Trump posted an ominous message warning Tehran residents to evacuate.

“IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON,” Trump wrote Monday night before returning to Washington early from a Group of Seven summit in Canada. “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” he added.

Trump later denied he had rushed back to work on a ceasefire, telling reporters on Air Force One: “I’m not looking at a ceasefire. We’re looking at better than a ceasefire.”

Asked why he had urged for the evacuation of Tehran, he said: “I just want people to be safe.”

Earlier, the Israeli military had called for some 330,000 residents of a neighborhood in downtown Tehran to evacuate. Tehran is one of the largest cities in the Middle East, with around 10 million people, roughly equivalent to the entire population of Israel. People have been fleeing since hostilities began.

Israel says its sweeping assault on Iran’s top military leaders, nuclear scientists, uranium enrichment sites and ballistic missile program is necessary to prevent its adversary from getting any closer to building an atomic weapon. The strikes have killed at least 224 people in Iran.

Iran has retaliated by launching more than 370 missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel. So far, 24 people have been killed in Israel. The Israeli military said a new barrage of missiles was launched on Tuesday, and explosions could be heard in northern Israel.

Shops closed, lines for gas in Iran’s capital

Downtown Tehran appeared to be emptying out early Tuesday, with many shops closed. The ancient Grand Bazaar was also closed, something that only happened in the past during anti-government demonstrations or at the height of the coronavirus pandemic.

On the roads out of Tehran to the west, traffic stood bumper to bumper. Many appeared to be heading to the Caspian Sea area. Long lines also could be seen at gas stations in Tehran, with printed placards and boards calling for a “severe” response to Israel visible across the city.

Authorities canceled leave for doctors and nurses as the attacks continue, but insisted everything was under control and did not offer any guidance for the public on what to do.

The Israeli military meanwhile claimed to have killed someone it described as Iran’s top general in a strike on Tehran. Iran did not immediately comment on the reported killing of Gen. Ali Shadmani, who had just been named as the head of the Khatam Al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, part of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.

Iran has named other generals to replace the top leaders of the Guard and the regular armed forces after they were killed in earlier strikes.

Trump leaves G7 early to focus on conflict

Before leaving the summit in Canada, Trump joined the other leaders in a joint statement saying Iran “can never have a nuclear weapon” and calling for a “de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza.”

French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters that discussions were underway on a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, but Trump appeared to shoot that down in his comments on social media.

Macron “mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a ‘cease fire’ between Israel and Iran,” Trump wrote. “Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that.”

Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth headed to the White House Situation Room to meet with the president and his national security team.

Hegseth didn’t provide details on what prompted the meeting but said on Fox News late Monday that the movements were to “ensure that our people are safe.”

Trump said he wasn’t ready to give up on diplomatic talks, and could send Vice President JD Vance and special envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with the Iranians.

“I may,” he said. “It depends on what happens when I get back.”

Israel says it has ‘aerial superiority’ over Tehran

Israeli military spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said Monday his country’s forces had “achieved full aerial superiority over Tehran’s skies.”

The military said it destroyed more than 120 surface-to-surface missile launchers in central Iran, a third of Iran’s total, including multiple launchers just before they launched ballistic missiles toward Israel. It also destroyed two F-14 fighter planes that Iran used to target Israeli aircraft, the military said.

Israeli military officials also said fighter jets had struck 10 command centers in Tehran belonging to Iran’s Quds Force, an elite arm of its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard that conducts military and intelligence operations outside Iran.

Israel’s military issued an evacuation warning for a part of central Tehran that houses state TV and police headquarters, as well as three large hospitals, including one owned by the Guard. It has issued similar evacuation warnings for parts of the Gaza Strip and Lebanon ahead of strikes.

On Monday, an Israeli strike hit the headquarters of Iran’s state-run TV station, sending a television anchor fleeing her studio during a live broadcast. The Israeli military said Tuesday it had hit the station because “the broadcast channel was used to spread anti-Israel propaganda.”

Israel says strikes have set back nuclear program

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Israeli strikes have set Iran’s nuclear program back a “very, very long time,” and told reporters he is in daily touch with Trump.

Iran maintains its nuclear program is peaceful, and the US and others have assessed Tehran has not had an organized effort to pursue a nuclear weapon since 2003. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned that the country has enough enriched uranium to make several nuclear bombs should it choose to do so.

So far, Israel has targeted multiple Iranian nuclear program sites but has not been able to destroy Iran’s Fordo uranium enrichment facility.

The site is buried deep underground — and to eliminate it, Israel may need the 30,000-pound (14,000-kilogram) GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a US bunker-busting bomb that uses its weight and sheer kinetic force to reach deeply buried targets. Israel does not have the munition or the bomber needed to deliver it. The penetrator is currently delivered by the B-2 stealth bomber.

No sign of conflict letting up

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, appeared to make a veiled plea Monday for the US to step in and negotiate an end to hostilities.

In a post on X, Araghchi wrote that if Trump is “genuine about diplomacy and interested in stopping this war, next steps are consequential.”

“It takes one phone call from Washington to muzzle someone like Netanyahu,” Iran’s top diplomat wrote. “That may pave the way for a return to diplomacy.”

The message to Washington was sent as the latest talks between the US and Iran were canceled over the weekend after Israel’s surprise bombardment.

On Sunday, Araghchi said Iran will stop its strikes if Israel does the same.