Washington — President Trump announced a trade deal with the Philippines after meeting with the country’s president at the White House on Tuesday, an announcement he followed with details of another trade agreement with Indonesia later in the day.

Mr. Trump announced the Philippines tariffs agreement after a trade-focused Oval Office meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. The tariff rate for goods imported into the U.S. from both the Philippines and Indonesia will be 19%, the president said.

In a post on Truth Social, Mr. Trump said the Philippines will lift all tariffs on imported U.S. goods. The Philippines has not yet confirmed the existence of an agreement or any details.

“It was a beautiful visit, and we concluded our Trade Deal, whereby The Philippines is going OPEN MARKET with the United States, and ZERO Tariffs,” Mr. Trump wrote. “The Philippines will pay a 19% Tariff. In addition, we will work together Militarily. It was a Great Honor to be with the President. He is Highly Respected in his Country, as he should be. He is also a very good, and tough, negotiator. We extend our warmest regards to the wonderful people of The Philippines!”

The 19% tariff rate is just shy of the 20% tariff rate the Trump administration was set to impose on the Philippines. And it’s also higher than the so-called reciprocal tariff of 17% on Philippine imports the administration announced in April.

In his Oval Office meeting, Mr. Trump said the U.S. and the Philippines were “very close” to reaching a deal, calling Marcos a tough negotiator.

“We’re very close to finishing a trade deal, big trade deal,” Mr. Trump said, seated alongside Marcos. “And we do a lot of business with you, so a lot of income coming in for both groups.”

The U.S. and Indonesia released a joint statement Tuesday afternoon with details of their trade deal.

Under the terms, which the president has teased before, Indonesian products will also face a 19% tariff rate, but U.S. products heading to Indonesia generally will not face tariffs. According to the joint statement, Indonesia will drop its tariff rate to zero for 99% of its trade with the U.S.

“It is agreed that Indonesia will be Open Market to American Industrial and Tech Products, and Agricultural Goods, by eliminating 99% of their Tariff Barriers,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social. “The United States of America will now sell American-made products to Indonesia at a Tariff Rate of ZERO, while Indonesia will pay 19% on all of their products coming into the U.S.A. — The Best Market in the World!”

Goods that are “transshipped or contain a lot of content from certain countries” through Indonesia will be tariffed at 40%, a senior administration official told reporters on a conference call about the agreement.

Among other aspects of the deal, Indonesia will also remove export restrictions on critical minerals and accept U.S. Food and Drug Administration certificates and prior marketing authorization for medical devices and pharmaceuticals.

Aug. 1 is the Trump administration’s current deadline for countries to reach trade agreements with the U.S. or face higher tariff rates on goods sent to the U.S.

President Trump said Tuesday he has struck a “massive” trade deal with Japan that calls for 15% tariffs on goods the U.S. imports from there.

The president wrote on his Truth Social platform Tuesday that, as part of the agreement, Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S. “which will receive 90% of the Profits.” He also said Japan will “open their Country to Trade including Cars and Trucks, Rice and certain other Agricultural Products.”

The 15% tariff rate announced by Mr. Trump is lower than the 25% he proposed earlier this month and the 24% duties that were proposed on “Liberation Day” in early April.

“This is a very exciting time for the United States of America, and especially for the fact that we will continue to always have a great relationship with the Country of Japan,” Mr. Trump wrote.

“They had their top people here, and we worked on it long and hard, and it’s a great deal for everybody,” the president said of the negotiations with Japan, addressing GOP lawmakers Tuesday night during a White House reception.

Japan is the United States’ fifth-largest trading partner, according to federal statistics. Japan bought $79.7 billion worth of American goods last year, and the U.S. imported $148.2 billion worth of Japanese goods.

More than one-third of U.S. imports from Japan last year — or $52.3 billion — were cars and car parts, powered by Japan’s massive auto industry, according to federal data.

Duties of 25% percent on vehicles from Japan were in place under the tariffs on foreign-made cars and parts Mr. Trump announced earlier this year, as were 50 percent levies on steel and aluminum.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Wednesday the autos tariff will be lowered to 15%, which sent shares of Japanese automakers soaring.

“We are the first (country) in the world to reduce tariffs on automobiles and auto parts, with no limits on volume,” he told reporters.

“By protecting what needs to be protected, we continued the negotiations with an aim to reach an agreement that meets the national interest of both Japan and the United States,” Ishiba added. “In this agreement with President Trump, I think we were able to realize such an agreement.”

But Japan trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa said the 50 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum would stay in place.

Akazawa also said increased defense spending by Japan — something Mr. Trump has pressed for — was not part of the deal.

Mr. Trump also said Tuesday evening that his administration is working on a separate deal with Alaska involving liquified natural gas in the state.

Earlier Tuesday, Mr. Trump announced trade deals with Indonesia and the Philippines calling for 19% tariffs on those countries’ exports to the United States. The administration is still in talks with several other crucial trading partners, including Mexico, Canada and the European Union.

Trump pushing for last-minute trade deal blitz

Mr. Trump sent letters this month to about two dozen countries — including Japan — telling them to expect higher tariffs starting Aug. 1 unless they strike deals before then to resolve what the president views as unfair trade practices. The threats came near the end of a 90-day pause on most of the sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs Mr. Trump unveiled against dozens of countries on “Liberation Day” in April.

The Trump administration has hoped the letters will lead to a blitz of trade deals in the coming weeks, before the higher tariff rates kick in at the start of August. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick predicted Sunday that the next two weeks will be “for the record books.”

The letters have “gotten these countries to the table, and they are going to open their markets or they’re going to pay the tariff,” Lutnick said on CBS News’ “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan.”

When the dust settles, Lutnick said, smaller countries can expect to face a roughly 10% tariff — which is the baseline rate imposed by Mr. Trump in April — while larger countries will likely face higher tariffs.

By comparison, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports in 2023 was around 2.5%, according to figures from the Yale Budget Lab.

Mr. Trump argues his tariff strategy is necessary to revive U.S. manufacturing, correct unfair trade practices and bring in additional government revenue. But many economists warn that tariffs can lead to higher inflation and lower economic growth.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the central bank has left interest rates relatively high so far this year because it is concerned Mr. Trump’s tariffs could push up consumer prices.

Lutnick responded to inflation worries Sunday by saying, “I think you’re going to see inflation stay right where it is,” and argued that tariffs will help American manufacturers.

“The idea that these importers are more important than the people who employ Americans, I think it’s just [the] wrong way of thinking about it,” Lutnick SAID.

and contributed to this report.

The trade war is renewed

The United States appears to be moving toward sustained, very high tariffs. The three trade deals reached so far (with the United Kingdom, Vietnam, and China) have left US tariffs historically high, potentially offering a template for future deals with many other countries. Although the United States has postponed final determination of tariffs until August 1, the framework for a new US relationship with the world is now emerging.

Japan and South Korea

President Trump sent letters to the leaders of South Korea and Japan indicating that the United States intends to impose a 25% tariff on imports from those countries unless they make unspecified changes to their trade policies. Under current law, the United States and South Korea have a free trade agreement that took years to negotiate and was approved by the US Congress. New tariffs will end that agreement. This raises the question as to what concessions South Korea could make to appease the US administration. In my view, there are none. Rather, the letter sent by the president focuses on the bilateral US trade deficit with South Korea and urges Korean companies to invest more in the United States. The idea is that, if Korean companies make more things in the United States, they will export less to the United States.

A few comments on this: first, increased inbound investment in the United States necessarily leads to a bigger trade deficit. That is because capital flows and trade flows must offset one another. Second, the bilateral trade imbalance between two countries is not consequential. Rather, the overall trade imbalance of a country is important but is not the result of trade rules. Third, If Korea cannot make any meaningful concessions that would satisfy the United States, then it will evidently be left facing a high tariff barrier for its exports. This will surely hurt Korea’s economy, but it will hurt US consumers even more. Although it might lead US consumers to divert trade to other countries, this would only make sense if tariffs are lower on other countries’ exports. That might not be the case if the US imposes high tariffs on most countries.

In Japan, it is reported that leaders are shaken by the US intention to impose a 25% tariff on imports. The country’s leaders had hoped that the expansive economic and political relationship between the two countries would protect Japan from severe tariffs. Indeed, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba recently said that “Japan is the world’s largest investor in the United States and creates the largest number of jobs. We are in a different situation from other countries.” Evidently, that is not the case.

Trump also announced potential tariff rates on multiple countries, to take effect on August 1, provided no deal is reached with these countries. He left open the possibility of deals, rendering the proposed rates highly uncertain. What we do know is that the rates are very high—in most cases similar to the so-called “reciprocal” tariffs announced on April 2 but postponed. If these new rates are implemented, it would mean that the average US tariff rate would reach a level not seen in more than a century, likely disrupting global trade flows as well as cross-border investment flows. Moreover, these proposals say nothing about potential new tariffs on specific products that are currently being considered. Recall that a US court ruled that the country-level tariffs are mostly illegal. If this is upheld by higher courts, the administration is likely to turn to product-related tariffs as its principal tool.

If the average US tariff rate remains at the current level, or goes higher, it will change the dynamics of the global economy. It will almost surely boost US inflation, at least temporarily. This, in turn, will influence the trajectory of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. In addition, tariffs will lead to reduced imports and lower consumer purchasing power, likely causing US economic growth to decelerate and possibly leading to a US recession. For other countries, high US tariffs will reinforce efforts to boost trade with one another and to boost domestic demand. For some countries, retaliation will take place, as was suggested last week by Germany’s chancellor with respect to the European Union.

Southeast Asia

Regarding Southeast Asia, it appears that the administration is leaning toward very high tariff rates. This is important because, in recent years, much investment that might otherwise have gone into China went to Southeast Asia as companies sought to reduce the risk of doing business in China. Yet now it is reported that the US administration is considering tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from such countries as Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, and Malaysia. If this happens, it will be significant for US consumers who purchase many goods assembled in these countries. It could have a big negative impact on these countries, likely disrupting existing supply chains.

On the other hand, this is not yet written in stone. Negotiations are taking place. The US administration already reached a deal with Vietnam in which the United States imposes a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam, and Vietnam imposes a zero tariff on imports from the United States. It is not clear if this deal will be a template for Vietnam’s anxious neighbors. Even a 20% tariff is very significant.

Leaders in Southeast Asia have begun to react to the likelihood of high tariffs. For example, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar criticized the new environment, saying that “across the world, tools once used to generate growth are now wielded to pressure, isolate, and contain. Tariffs, export restrictions, and investment barriers have now become the sharpened instruments of geopolitical rivalry.” Malaysia’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points—the first cut in 25 months—in an attempt to boost domestic demand and offset negative consequences for exports.

Canada

US-Canadian trade relations have returned to the top of the headline after several months of calm. Yesterday, US President Trump said that a 35% tariff will be applied to imports from Canada, excluding goods covered by the free trade agreement between the two countries—although that exemption might be changed according to the US administration.

Reaction in financial markets was mixed. US equity prices fell sharply before slightly rebounding, as did Canadian equity prices. The value of the Canadian dollar fell sharply but bounced back significantly due to expectations that the 35% tariff will not necessarily happen. Many traders believe that each threat made by the United States is simply an opening move in a negotiation. Yet the recent resolution of trade disputes with other countries suggests that the United States intends to keep relatively high tariffs.

The 35% tariff on Canadian imports is more than the 25% rate threatened earlier in the year. Since then, Canada has gotten a new prime minister (Mark Carney) who has worked hard to improve relations with the United States—going so far as to cancel a digital services tax about which the United States complained. Yet the latest announcement suggested that the tariff is partly about fentanyl. President Trump said that “if Canada works with me to stop the flow of fentanyl, we will, perhaps, consider an adjustment to this letter. These tariffs will be modified, upward or downward, depending on our relationship with your country. You will never be disappointed with the United States of America.” Trump also warned that, if Canada retaliates, the US tariff will go up further.

Although the volume of fentanyl crossing the border from Canada to the United States has reportedly been small, the Canadian government has vowed to spend US$1 billion to curtail the flow. Prime Minister Carney said that “vital” progress has been made on this front. He said that he will work with the US administration to resolve any differences.

Moreover, whatever happens regarding US-Canada relations will ultimately be replaced by the required review of the existing free trade agreement between the United States, Mexico, and Canada. This review must take place in 2026. It is likely that changes will be made to the agreement.

Brazil

When the US administration proposed severe, so-called reciprocal tariffs in early April, the size of each country’s tariff depended on the size of its trade surplus with the United States. For countries that had trade deficits with the United States, there was a baseline tariff of 10%. Brazil is one of the countries that has a deficit with the United States. Yet yesterday, President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil because the government is prosecuting former President Bolsonaro, who is accused of attempting a coup. This is a tariff not based on any economic factor but, instead, on a political one. Thus, the current US administration likely sees tariffs as the ultimate tool to pressure foreign governments, regardless of economic circumstances.

It is unlikely that Brazil will make any changes to satisfy Trump. In response to the US threat, the value of the Brazilian currency fell sharply while Brazilian equities declined as well. Moreover, if a 50% tariff is implemented, it will have a significant impact in the United States. Brazil is the largest source of coffee for the country. Coffee futures prices climbed sharply today on the news of the US threat.

In addition, Brazil is the third-largest purchaser of US steelmaking coal. Brazilian companies finish the coal and sell it back to the United States. Thus, for US steelmaking companies, this will represent an increase in their costs. Brazil also exports many other products, including medium-sized airplanes, that are popular with US airlines for short-haul routes. Thus, the potential tariff could be very impactful.

Copper

The US administration said that a 50% tariff on copper imports will take effect on August 1. Thus, it appears that the effective average US tariff, which is currently around 18%, is set to increase significantly by August. Recall that, at the start of the year, it was under 3%.

Regarding copper, the country imports about 60% of the copper it consumes, with most of it coming from Chile, which has a free trade agreement with the United States. About 40% comes from domestic mines or the recycling of scrap copper. In response to the threatened tariff, the price of copper has soared as companies have sought to purchase quickly in anticipation of tariffs. Indeed, copper inventories in the United States have also soared, roughly doubling since the start of the year. The latter is a concern in China, the world’s largest consumer of copper. Meanwhile, diversified mining companies, which might see their US mines benefit from the tariffs, saw their share prices fall, given the likely disruption of the global market.

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said in a statement that Mr. Trump’s latest tariffs “would disrupt essential trans-Atlantic supply chains, to the detriment of businesses, consumers and patients on both sides of the Atlantic.”

So far, businesses have been able to mitigate some of the impact of Mr. Trump’s levies. To get ahead of the tariffs, they stockpiled products earlier this year, causing imports to surge before later crashing down. Americans have grown less confident about the economy as uncertainty surrounding Mr. Trump’s policies has frozen businesses in place.

Many businesses have held off on raising prices as they whittle down their inventories or chosen to absorb some of the higher costs to avoid deterring customers already choosier about how they spend. That has helped keep inflation relatively muted in recent months.

However, price pressures are expected to start heating up as a result of tariffs, according to forecasts for June’s Consumer Price Index report, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release on Tuesday.

Businesses across the country have also held off on making big changes to their work force while delaying costly, long-term investments for the time being.

Since re-entering office, President Trump has announced a barrage of tariffs to try to rewire the global economy. The trade actions have taken effect in fits and starts, resulting in wild swings in markets and fresh tension among some of America’s closest trading partners.

What’s the latest?

Mr. Trump this week threatened high tariffs on a wide range of targets.

The president said Saturday that many goods from the European Union and Mexico, two of America’s largest trading partners, would be subject to 30 percent tariffs starting next month. E.U. officials had been negotiating with the United States over the past few months in hopes of striking an agreement to avoid such steep levies.

Mr. Trump on Thursday took aim at another major trading partner, threatening a 35 percent tariff on many goods from Canada, in part because of the country’s role in allowing the flow of fentanyl into the United States.

It came a day after he announced a plan to impose a 50 percent tariff on all imports from Brazil, suggesting that the new levies were partly a response to a “witch hunt” against Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro. A political ally of Mr. Trump, Mr. Bolsonaro is facing trial for attempting a coup.