The Donald Trump administration is exerting pressure on India to open up its market to American soyabean and maize, which are both almost entirely genetically modified (GM) produce. These are crops where the US has huge stakes, with its exports of raw soyabean alone valued at $24.5 billion and of maize at $13.7 billion in 2024. It would be more — around $52 billion — if exports of soyabean meal ($6.3 billion) and maize-derived ethanol ($4.3 billion) and dried distillers grains ($3.1 billion) are added. The economic imperative to find new markets is reinforced by Trump’s political compulsion to cater to voters in the “corn belt” states of the Midwestern US. Some of them, growing the bulk of the country’s soyabean, maize and wheat — Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio — are also part of the “rust belt” that constituted its industrial heartland. With Trump having swept both belts in the presidential elections, he has to evidently return that favour.

For India, this presents a dilemma that has less to do with economics. Average soyabean yields in the US are more than 3.5 times that of India. That makes American growers much more cost competitive. Moreover, India imports close to 5 million tonnes (mt) of soyabean oil annually. From a domestic value addition standpoint, it makes sense to import soyabean itself, which can then be processed to yield both oil and the residual protein-rich cake or meal. The yield difference may be somewhat less for maize, where many Bihar farmers harvest almost the same per-hectare tonnage as their counterparts in Iowa or Illinois. But India’s maize consumption is growing on the back of both feed and ethanol biofuel demand. Imports are going to be a practical necessity in both maize and soyabean meal, as rising incomes lead Indians to consume more dairy and other animal products that require these as key feed ingredients.