Analysis: Trump’s claim we know Iran facilities were ‘obliterated’ is ‘not technically credible’, expert says

Donald Trump’s claim to know Iran’s nuclear facilities were “completely obliterated” within hours of the US strikes “is just not technically credible”, our military analyst Michael Clarke has just been telling Wilfred Frost on Sky News.

Defence agencies typically give “varying confidence” in what they say about the impact of such strikes, and he adds: “That’s, I imagine, what the report will have said.”

He says it was “undoubtedly” a “technological triumph” for the US to drop its bunker buster bombs “very close together in the same place”.

But he says “these bombs have never been tested before” so “nobody is entirely sure” how much damage they would have caused”.

“Undoubtedly, it would be logical to assume enormous damage was probably caused, but damage beyond repair? We don’t know.”

He says Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency “will get a good idea” of how much damage has been done, as well as the International Atomic Energy Agency, “because they have lots of monitoring units all over Iran”.

But such intelligence will take “a couple of weeks, maybe three to four weeks,” he says.

“The idea that we know within hours that it was completely obliterated is just not technically credible.”

✕ Close Trump blasts Iran-Israel ceasefire violation: ‘They don’t know what the f*** they are doing’

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President Donald Trump has lashed out at the leaked intelligence report that suggested the US airstrikes did not destroy the nuclear program in Iran.

A preliminary intelligence assessment is said to have found that the US military strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend did not destroy the country’s nuclear programme, as Trump has claimed, and only set it back by a matter of months.

“FAKE NEWS CNN, TOGETHER WITH THE FAILING NEW YORK TIMES, HAVE TEAMED UP IN AN ATTEMPT TO DEMEAN ONE OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL MILITARY STRIKES IN HISTORY,” the US president ranted on Truth Social.

Earlier Trump claimed he “stopped the war” as a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to hold. “It was my great honor to Destroy All Nuclear facilities & capability, and then, STOP THE WAR!” he said.

A furious Trump earlier accused both the Iranian and Israeli militaries of violating the ceasefire just hours after it came into effect. “They don’t know what the f*** they’re doing,” the US president said of both countries.

United States President Donald Trump on Wednesday said Iran’s nuclear programme has been “set back decades”, a day after he claimed to have brokered a truce between the Shiite state and Israel.

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“They’re not going to be building bombs for a long time,” said Trump, insisting that US strikes caused ‘total obliteration’ at Iran nuclear sites.

He also said that the ceasefire between the Jewish nation and the Khamenei-led state was “going very well”.

Drawing a parallel between World War II and June 22 US strikes against Iran, Trump said: “That end ended the war. I don’t want to use an example of Hiroshima. I don’t want to use an example of Nagasaki.

But that was essentially the same thing. That ended that war.”

Notably, in the Pacific, after intense battles and Japan’s refusal to yield, the US dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Japan surrendered shortly after, bringing the war to an end in 1945.

Speaking on the possibility Iran resuming the enrichment of uranium beyond permitted levels, Trump said: “I think they’ve had it, they just went through hell…

the last thing they want to do is enrich.”

Trump also claimed “great progress” has been made in Gaza, suggesting the US strikes on Iran could have a positive impact on West Asia.

Earlier, Trump vehemently rejected news reports suggesting that the recent US strikes on Iran failed to destroy Tehran’s nuclear programme, calling it “FAKE NEWS” and insisting the sites were “completely destroyed”.

Posting in all caps on Truth Social, Trump wrote: “Fake news CNN, together with the failing New York Times, have teamed up in an attempt to demean one of the most successful military strikes in history. The nuclear sites in Iran are completely destroyed! both The Times and CNN are getting slammed by the public!”

The CNN report, based on a classified assessment by the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency, claimed the strikes only temporarily set back Iran’s nuclear programme.

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It said the attacks failed to fully eliminate centrifuges or enriched uranium stockpiles, with some facilities reportedly sealed off but not destroyed.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt acknowledged the report’s existence but said it was “flat-out wrong” and “a clear attempt to demean President Trump”.

She added, “Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000 pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.”

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi speaks to the media after a meeting in Geneva, Switzerland, on June 20. Sedat Suna/Getty Images

Iran could rethink its membership of a landmark treaty aimed preventing the spread of nuclear weapons in the wake of US and Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites, the country’s foreign minister suggested.

“The attack on our nuclear facilities will certainly have serious and profound repercussions on Iran’s future course,” Abbas Araghchi told the Qatari news outlet Al Araby Al Jadeed.

Iran is a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), an agreement designed to monitor and prevent the global spread of nuclear weapons as well as promote the peaceful use of nuclear technology. Any signatories to the treaty without nuclear weapons are prohibited from pursuing them.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a UN nuclear watchdog monitoring the adherence to the NPT, has issued reports in recent months saying that said Iran failed to provide answers to questions over its nuclear program.

Although the Islamic Republic had insisted its program was peaceful, it started enriching uranium to near-weapons grade after US President Donald Trump withdrew in his first term from an agreement signed in 2015 between Tehran and international powers including the US.

Last weekend, Trump ordered a strike on Iran’s nuclear program that he insists obliterated the program although a leaked Pentagon report said the attacks likely only set it back months.

“We have worked for many years to demonstrate to the world that we are committed to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and willing to work within its framework, but unfortunately, this treaty has not been able to protect us or our nuclear program,” Araghchi said.

Iran’s top diplomat told the outlet it was still too early to address how Iran would react but said he would “imagine” that Iran’s “view of the nuclear program and the non-proliferation regime will undergo changes, the direction of which” he “cannot yet determine.”

What will Iran do next?

Hugo Bachega

Middle East correspondent, reporting from Jerusalem

If the initial assessment by US intelligence, leaked to American media, is correct, then this will raise questions and concerns about what Iran does next.

Will the Israeli and US air strikes, instead of significantly delaying Iran’s nuclear ambitions, push it to accelerate its programme once the damage is repaired and the replacements are found for the scientists who were killed?

It will take time to have a clear idea of the extent of the damage caused by the attacks – and the debate continues about Israel’s justification, that Iran was close to the “point of no return” in developing a nuclear weapon.

Iranian officials have already said their nuclear programme will continue, while President Trump says Iran will never again have a nuclear programme. Iranian leaders know that a line has now been crossed, and that having such a weapon is probably their only protection from further attacks.

North Korea, which possesses nuclear weapons despite pressure for its programme to be dismantled, has never been attacked.

Today, the Iranian parliament approved a bill to stop co-operation with the global nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and some officials have also raised the possibility of leaving the Non-Proliferation Treaty too.

And we still do not know what has happened to about 400kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity, a step below weapons grade.

If the ceasefire holds – and both sides have reasons to respect it – international diplomats will try to resume negotiations for a deal.

These talks, despite a weaker Iran, are likely to be difficult. A key US demand is that there should be no enrichment of uranium on Iranian soil. Something that, at least in public, Iran has rejected.

Speaking on Fox News yesterday, Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s special envoy, said: “Now it’s time for us to sit down with the Iranians and get to a comprehensive peace agreement”.