It was the best of times and the worst of times for Donald Trump. He celebrated the passage of his big budget bill and his rescission package which enriched the wealthy and threw Medicaid patients, hungry American kids and starving Africans under the bus. Then the Epstein list came back around to bite him. Instead of basking in the reflected Republican glory of his defeat of the Democratic New Deal, he currently wallows in the mud of a sordid sex scandal.

The intense speculation about Donald Trump’s relationship to Jeffrey Epstein and his sexual escapades with young girls reveals two key problems with 47’s second term. First, the president has broken a series of promises he made to the American people during the 2024 campaign. Second, he has always relied heavily on his most loyal supporters in times of trouble, but the once solid MAGA base is in is danger of coming undone.

Trump’s refusal to release the infamous Epstein list is just one of the many promises he made while he was soliciting votes for his return to the White House last year. He has become the typical politician who will say anything to get elected and fail to deliver when he wins.

The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.7 percent in June after he told voters in 2024 that he would bring consumer costs down on Day One. Trump also claimed he could broker a peace between Ukraine and Russia in one day. The war there still drags on six months into his second term with no end in sight.

The president’s refusal to honor his pledge to release the Epstein list has alienated many of his strongest supporters such as right-wing podcaster Tucker Carlson. Trump’s betrayal of his base will come back to haunt him and other Republicans in 2026 and in 2028. He has torn the sheets with his biggest booster and most generous financial supporter, Elon Musk, over the tech magnate’s hostility towards the big bad budget bill. Finally former Trump White House counselor Steve Bannon (no relation) has criticized the budget bill’s tax cuts for bankers and billionaires at the expense of low-income white voters who were steadfast Trump supporters in 2024.

The sorry state of the economy will eventually be Trump’s undoing as it was Joe Biden’s. But the Epstein scandal gives Trump great grief in the here and now. His failure to follow up on his promise to release the infamous Epstein List of sexual predators has painted a giant kick me sign on his backside.

Trump’s failure to redeem his campaign promises could undermine support with the independents who voted for him last year even though they had doubts about his personal peccadillos. But the bottom line for Trump’s success has always been his ability to galvanize the base and he has made that difficult to do with the divisions emerging within MAGA.

To defend himself against the charge that he is on the list of the Epstein sexual predators, he has resorted to desperately ridiculous explanations. He has denied the existence of the list that he once promised to release. He has claimed that the list that doesn’t exist was fabricated by Biden, Barack Obama and others. His director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, a prominent player in Trump’s theater of the absurd, has tried to deflect attention from Epsteingate with the unsubstantiated claim that Obama tried to mount a coup against Trump.

The only factor that keeps Trump’s approval rating from sinking underwater into the deepest crevices of the Pacific Ocean is the blind allegiance of MAGA members who have stuck with him through hell and high water.

He sued Rupert Murdoch the Fox News jefe and owner of The Wall Street Journal after the paper published a report that Trump had drawn and given Epstein a pornographic 50th birthday card. He even belittled MAGA members when he tweeted “My PAST supporters have bought this bulls– hook, line and sinker…Let these weaklings continue forward and do the Democrats work. …I don’t want their support anymore…” Wow.

The accumulation of broken campaign promises and MAGA splits could present serious problems for the president, GOP candidates in 2026 and the 2028 Republican presidential contenders.

Democratic control of the House and the subsequent investigations into corruption within the Trump administration could cripple the last two years of his term. The divisions with MAGA could force a bloody Republican presidential primary fight in 2028 that could open the door for a Democrat to win the White House.

Trump is marooned on Epstein’s island and he is in for much more than a three-hour tour.

Brad Bannon is a national Democratic strategist and CEO of Bannon Communications Research which polls for Democrats, labor unions and progressive issue groups. He hosts the popular progressive podcast on power, politics and policy, Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.