TSA predicts busy air travel period over Fourth of July holiday weekend
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Diverging Reports Breakdown
From Las Vegas to Tokyo, a record 72 million Americans are predicted to hit the road and skies for the Fourth of July
AAA projects a record 72 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more during the nine-day Independence Day holiday period. Air travel is expected to rise more than 1% over last year’s record numbers. At DFW, customs officials report wait times are down 25% thanks to enhanced passenger processing technology that uses facial recognition. Top summer destinations include Las Vegas, Orlando, Tokyo and London, according to Priceline.
The auto club forecasts nearly 62 million people will drive over the Fourth of July weekend, representing an increase of 1.3 million from last year. Air travel is expected to rise more than 1% over last year’s record numbers.
“The top 10 heaviest travel days in TSA history have all happened within the past year, and we expect to see more heavy volumes this summer,” said Kristie Jordan Smith, a Transportation Security Administration official at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport.
How technology at airports is reducing wait times
The Independence Day travel period is expected to be the summer’s busiest travel stretch.
Airport officials are implementing new technology to reduce wait times. At DFW, customs officials report wait times are down 25% thanks to enhanced passenger processing technology that uses facial recognition, now operational at nine airports nationwide.
CBP will soon test a program allowing customs to review X-ray images of checked bags from London flights, eliminating the need for connecting passengers to clear security twice in Dallas.
“This program streamlines and improves the travel experience for our customers, saving them time and reducing the complexity of clearing security while continuing to maintain the highest security standards,” said Jim Moses, Senior Vice President DFW Hub Operations at American Airlines. DFW is the airline’s largest hub.
AAA spokesperson Aixa Diaz said travel demand reflects both practical and emotional factors.
“We’re seeing travel in record numbers because travel isn’t just an economic and practical decision, it’s also an emotional decision,” Diaz said. “People don’t have to spend a lot of money when they go on these trips, but people want to get away and not be home.”
According to Priceline, top summer destinations include Las Vegas, Orlando, Tokyo and London.
TSA Prepares for 2024 Holiday Travel Surge: 3 Busiest Days Revealed
TSA expects to screen almost 40 million people between December 19 and January 2. Holiday period marks a slight change in pattern from other busy holiday periods in the U.S., such as Labor Day weekend. American Airlines is expecting almost 12.7 million fliers to fill more than 118,000 flights during the winter holiday period. London’s Heathrow Airport has earmarked Christmas Day itself as a record-setter this year, with the number of people passing through its terminals expected to be 21% higher than 2023’S December 25 traffic. At Heathrow, 2024 is set to outpace 2023’s total 79 million passengers, as post-pandemic travel has been up exceptionally high, especially on holiday weekends, the TSA says. The agency has added new security lanes, new screening tech, more K9 units, and additional staffing to cope with the extra volume of travelers. It’s likely that 2025 will continue to see an uptick in air travel, Delta executives said recently.
It’s no secret that the festive season sees a surge in travelers at the airport. This year, however, is set to see a 6.2% increase over last year’s crowds, according to the TSA. The agency expects to screen almost 40 million people between December 19 and January 2.
Higher numbers of travelers year-over-year were forecast at least as far back as October when Expedia’s Holiday Travel Outlook reported that international Christmas travel flight searches were up 20% compared to 2023.
The forthcoming peak surge follows the TSA’s busiest-ever day. December 1 was one for the agency’s history books as it screened more than 3 million people across U.S. airports as travelers wrapped up their Thanksgiving holidays.
The Busiest 2024 Holiday Travel Days
According to the TSA, many of those 40 million travelers will be passing through U.S. terminals on three key dates: December 20, December 27, and December 30.
TSA spokesperson Mark Howell told Skift that the holiday period marks a slight change in pattern from other busy — but far shorter — holiday periods in the U.S., such as Labor Day weekend.
Although the longer December holiday period will be busier year-over-year compared to last year, “the Christmas and New Year’s holidays aren’t as heavy on the daily because the volume is more spread out,” he said.
Because of this, Howell doesn’t expect the TSA to see a single-day record set for passenger volume, but “we’ll probably have a record over the Christmas period.”
Howell noted that 5 a.m. to 9 a.m. typically marks a peak period for TSA checkpoints, with some additional wait times to be expected. However, he said that the goal is 30 minutes or less for standard screenings and 15 minutes or less for TSA PreCheck passengers. To help cope with the additional holiday traffic the TSA has added new security lanes, new screening tech, more K9 units, and additional staffing.
Airlines and Airports Plan for Holiday Peak
American Airlines is expecting almost 12.7 million fliers to fill more than 118,000 flights during the winter holiday period, which it defines as December 18 to January 6. Similar to TSA projections, it expects December 27 to be its busiest travel day, with December 20 to be its second-highest peak over the holiday period.
United is looking at 9.9 million travelers between December 19 and January 6, up 12% from last year. This continues its record-breaking traveler numbers over other typically busy U.S. holiday travel periods, such as Memorial Day and July Fourth. It plans to operate around 4,500 flights per day, having added nearly 500 additional daily flights to accommodate the 540,000-plus people traveling with the airline daily during the period.
Air Canada, meanwhile, is expecting December 19 through December 23 to be its peak over a festive season that runs from mid-December through January 6. According to the carrier, 2.2 million travelers will board one of up to 1,000 daily flights across its three airlines (Air Canada, Air Canada Rouge, and Air Canada Express).
Elsewhere, London’s Heathrow Airport has earmarked Christmas Day itself as a record-setter this year, with the number of people passing through its terminals expected to be 21% higher than 2023’s December 25 traffic. This follows its busiest-ever November last month, with 6.5 million passengers passing through its terminals — around 1.5 million of whom were departing to or arriving from North America.
Travel Volume Continues to Rebound Post-Pandemic
It’s not just holiday travel that’s affected by higher volumes of traveler traffic. At Heathrow, 2024 is set to outpace 2023’s total of 79 million passengers.
According to the TSA, this is part of a pattern of increased travel post-pandemic. “It’s been like that this year as a whole: The volume has been up exceptionally high, especially on holiday weekends,” said Howell.
Although there might be a chance for TSA screeners to catch their breath as we get further into January, its likely that 2025 will continue to see an uptick in air travel.
Delta executives recently said they expect next year to bring in increased revenues for the airline, fueled by a strong economy and increased travel demand, especially for premium and international travel.
“I hate to talk about the pandemic, but there’s just a lot of people traveling right now,” adds Howell. “There’s confidence in people wanting to travel — they’re just getting out and traveling more.”
Although the TSA — and airlines — were planning on seeing a post-pandemic rebound, “we’re seeing that year over year,” Howell said. “It’s good for the industry, and it’s good for everybody when there’s continued growth.”
What am I looking at? The performance of airline sector stocks within the ST200. The index includes companies publicly traded across global markets including network carriers, low-cost carriers, and other related companies. The Skift Travel 200 (ST200) combines the financial performance of nearly 200 travel companies worth more than a trillion dollars into a single number. See more airlines sector financial performance. Read the full methodology behind the Skift Travel 200.
Record 72.2 Million Americans Expected to Travel Domestically July 4th Week
AAA projects 72.2 million people will travel at least 50 miles or more from home over the Independence Day holiday period from Saturday, June 28 to Sunday, July 6. This year’s domestic travel forecast is an increase of 1.7 million travelers compared to last year and 7 million more than in 2019. AAA recommends getting routine vehicle maintenance ahead of your trip and packing an emergency kit. The number of people traveling by air is also projected to set a new record, with 5.84 million travelers expected to fly to their destinations. A roundtrip domestic flight is averaging $810, 4% more expensive than last year. The price of crude oil has kept gas prices on the lower side, but the Israel Iran conflict has driven up the price of oil in recent days. The Atlantic hurricane season is underway, and NOAA predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season. Florida, Hawaii and New York are in high demand for their resorts and attractions, and Vancouver tops the most popular fireworks in the nation.
“Summertime is one of the busiest travel seasons of the year, and July 4th is one of the most popular times to get away,” said Stacey Barber, Vice President of AAA Travel. “Following Memorial Day’s record forecast, AAA is seeing strong demand for road trips and air travel over Independence Day week. With the holiday falling on a Friday, travelers have the option of making it a long weekend or taking the entire week to make memories with family and friends.”
Independence Day Travelers by Mode of Transportation
By Car: AAA projects 61.6 million people will travel by car, a 2.2% increase over last year, and the highest volume on record. This Independence Day holiday period is expected to see an additional 1.3 million road travelers compared to 2024. AAA recommends getting routine vehicle maintenance ahead of your trip and packing an emergency kit. Last July 4th week, AAA responded to nearly 700,000 emergency roadside assistance calls for issues like dead batteries and flat tires, plus people locking themselves out of their car or running out of gas.
Drivers are seeing some increases at the pump, but summer gas prices are still the lowest they’ve been since 2021. This year, the price of crude oil has kept gas prices on the lower side. The Israel Iran conflict has driven up the price of oil in recent days but not dramatically. Escalation and duration of the conflict are two factors to watch. Weather is also a wild card. The Atlantic hurricane season is underway, and NOAA predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season. Storms along the Gulf Coast can affect oil refineries and disrupt fuel deliveries, leading to a temporary increase in gas prices.
For travelers who are renting cars, AAA car rental partner Hertz says Thursday, July 3rd is expected to be the busiest day to pick up vehicles. Some of the top destinations based on advanced bookings are also on AAA’s list of most popular places to visit over July 4th: Orlando, Denver, Boston, Oahu, and Seattle. Hertz says most drivers are looking to rent SUVs and midsize sedans.
AAA Trip Canvas Inspiration: Pack up the car and take a road trip to one of the 10 Best National Parks to Visit in the Summer.
By Air: The number of people traveling by air is also projected to set a new record. AAA expects 5.84 million travelers will fly to their destinations; that’s 8% of all Independence Day travelers. This year’s projection is a 1.4% increase over the previous record set last Independence Day week of 5.76 million air travelers.
According to AAA data, which is based on what travelers paid when they booked their July 4th trips, a roundtrip domestic flight is averaging $810, 4% more expensive than last year. When booking last-minute flights for summer trips, consider flying on weekdays like Tuesdays or Wednesdays for the best deals.
AAA Trip Canvas Inspiration: Still debating where to take the kids this summer? Check out 17 Best Vacation Spots for Families.
By Other Modes: Travel by other modes is expected to grow by 7.4% over last year. AAA projects 4.78 million people will travel by bus, train, or cruise. This year’s number is just shy of the 2019 record of 4.79 million. Cruising is driving the popularity of this category, particularly this time of year, when Alaska cruise season is in full swing.
AAA Trip Canvas Inspiration: Missed the boat this summer? Start planning now for your Alaska cruise next year! Here are The 9 Best Alaska Cruises for Every Traveler.
AAA’s Top Independence Day Destinations
The top holiday destinations listed below are based on AAA booking data for the Independence Day travel period. Cruises, beaches, and fireworks are the main motivators for travelers heading to these cities. Alaska cruises are in peak season, Florida and Hawaii are in high demand for their resorts and attractions, and New York and Boston host two of the most popular fireworks shows in the nation. Internationally, Vancouver tops the list followed by Europe’s most in-demand cities during the summer.
DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL ORLANDO, FL VANCOUVER, CANADA SEATTLE, WA ROME, ITALY NEW YORK, NY PARIS, FRANCE ANCHORAGE, AK LONDON, ENGLAND FORT LAUDERDALE, FL BARCELONA, SPAIN HONOLULU, HI DUBLIN, IRELAND DENVER, CO AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS MIAMI, FL CALGARY, CANADA BOSTON, MA ATHENS, GREECE ATLANTA, GA LISBON, PORTUGAL
Best/Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion by Metro
INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects Wednesday, July 2 and Sunday, July 6 to be the busiest days on the road. Afternoon hours will be the most congested. Drivers should hit the road in the morning to avoid the worst traffic, but keep in mind construction, crashes, or severe weather could impact travel times. Watch for stopped vehicles and Slow Down, Move Over for emergency responders.
Please note that the times listed below are for the time zone in which the metro is located. For example, Atlanta routes = ET and Los Angeles routes = PT.
Best and Worst Times to Travel by Car Date Worst Travel Time Best Travel Time Saturday, Jun 28 12:00 PM – 5:00 PM Before 10:00 AM Sunday, Jun 29 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM Before 11:00 AM Monday, Jun 30 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM Before 12:00 PM Tuesday, Jul 01 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM Before 2:00 PM Wednesday, Jul 02 12:00 PM – 9:00 PM Before 12:00 PM Thursday, Jul 03 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM Before 12:00 PM Friday, Jul 04 12:00 PM – 7:00 PM Before 12:00 PM Saturday, Jul 05 11:00 AM – 5:00 PM Before 11:00 AM Sunday, Jul 06 12:00 PM – 6:00 PM Before 11:00 AM
SOURCE: INRIX
City Trip Type From To Road Day Time Atlanta Departing Atlanta Birmingham I-20 W Sun. 29th 12:15 PM Returning Savannah Atlanta I-16 W Sun. 6th 2:30 PM Boston Departing Boston Hyannis Route 3 S Sat. 28th 10:45 AM Returning Hyannis Boston Route 3 N Sat. 5th 11:45 AM Chicago Departing Chicago Indianapolis I-65 S Wed. 2nd 6:00 PM Returning Milwaukee Chicago I-94 E Sun. 6th 2:30 PM Denver Departing Denver Fort Collins I-25 N Mon. 30th 1:45 PM Returning Fort Collins Denver I-25 S Sat. 5th 6:30 PM Detroit Departing Detroit Toronto I-94 E Thu. 3rd 3:00 PM Returning Grand Rapids Detroit I-96 E Sat. 5th 1:30 PM Houston Departing Houston Galveston I-45 S Sat. 28th 11:15 AM Returning Galveston Houston I-45 N Sun. 6th 11:45 AM Los Angeles Departing Los Angeles San Diego I-5 S Sat. 28th 5:00 PM Returning Las Vegas Los Angeles I-15 S Sun. 6th 5:00 PM Minneapolis Departing Minneapolis Eau Claire I-94 E Sun. 29th 2:00 PM Returning Eau Claire Minneapolis I-94 W Sun. 6th 3:45 PM New York Departing New York Jersey Shore Garden State Pkwy S Tue. 1st 4:30 PM Returning Albany New York I-87 S Sun. 6th 4:15 PM Philadelphia Departing Philadelphia Rehoboth Beach I-95 & Route 13 Sat. 28th 10:45 AM Returning Poconos Philadelphia I-76/I-476 PA Tpke Sun. 6th 1:15 PM Portland Departing Portland Eugene I-5 S Wed. 2nd 5:00 PM Returning Eugene Portland I-5 N Sun. 6th 4:45 PM San Diego Departing San Diego Palm Springs I-15 N Wed. 2nd 5:45 PM Returning Palm Springs San Diego I-15 S Sat. 5th 3:00 PM San Francisco Departing San Francisco Sacramento I-80 E Wed. 2nd 5:30 PM Returning Sacramento San Francisco I-80 W Sun. 6th 4:30 PM Seattle Departing Seattle Ocean Shores I-5 S Wed. 2nd 5:45 PM Returning Ellensburg Seattle I-90 E Sun. 6th 4:30 PM Tampa Departing Tampa Orlando I-4 E Wed. 2nd 2:30 PM Returning Orlando Tampa I-4 W Fri. 4th 3:45 PM Washington, DC Departing Washington, DC Annapolis US-50 E Sat. 28th 1:45 PM Returning Annapolis Washington, DC US-50 W Fri. 4th 11:30 AM
SOURCE: INRIX
Holiday Forecast Methodology
Travel Forecast
In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.
Historical travel volume estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, forecast U.S. travel behavior and position brand, all after the trips have been taken.
The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of May 19, 2025.
Because AAA holiday forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes, whether traveling for work or leisure. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.
Independence Day Holiday Travel Period
The Independence Day holiday travel period is defined as the nine-day period from Saturday, June 28 to Sunday, July 6. Historically, this holiday period included only one weekend. The expanded travel window was instituted starting in 2024 with historical results calculated back to 2019 using the new nine-day period.
About AAA
Started in 1902 by automotive enthusiasts who wanted to chart a path for better roads in America and advocate for safe mobility, AAA has transformed into one of North America’s largest membership organizations. Today, AAA delivers exceptional roadside assistance, helps travelers plan their dream vacations and adventures, offers exclusive member discounts and benefits, and provides trusted financial and insurance services – all to enhance the life journey of our 65+ million members across North America, including nearly 58 million in the United States. To learn more about all AAA offers or become a member, visit AAA.com.
About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses, and individuals with the right data, expertise, and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges, and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com.
About MMGY
MMGY Global is the world’s leading integrated marketing firm specializing in the travel, hospitality, and lifestyle industries. With operating brands around the world, the award-winning organization maintains a global communications practice in all marketing channels, serving many of the world’s premier travel and tourism brands. As a company dedicated to the travel industry, MMGY Global strives to create a connected, inclusive, and peaceful world by promoting travel as a cultural bridge of understanding. For more information, visit www.mmgyglobal.com.
About INRIX
Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This revolutionary approach enabled INRIX to become one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. By empowering cities, businesses, and people with valuable insights, INRIX is helping to make the world smarter, safer, and greener. With partners and solutions spanning across the entire mobility ecosystem, INRIX is uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology and transportation – whether it’s keeping road users safe, improving traffic signal timing to reduce delay and greenhouse gasses, optimizing last mile delivery, or helping uncover market insights. Learn more at INRIX.com.
TSA braces for ‘busiest ever’ holiday
TSA braces for ‘busiest ever’ holiday travel rush. AAA predicts that nearly 80 million people in the U.S. will venture at least 50 miles from home between Tuesday and next Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the busiest travel days before Thanksgiving as they expect to screen at least 2.8 million people each day. The FAA says it is slowing traffic into Newark Liberty International Airport due to staffing issues at the Philadelphia TRACON (PHL). Check your flight status at Newark and other area airports by clicking on one of the links below: New Jersey.com/Airport. Follow us on YouTube for breaking news news alerts. Send us a breaking news tip or an idea for a story we should cover using the form below. If attaching a video or photo, use the terms “video” or “photo” in the box below: “Video” “Photos” “Lines” “Texting”
NEWARK, New Jersey (WABC) — The Thanksgiving travel rush is expected to be bigger than ever this year. AAA predicts that nearly 80 million people in the U.S. will venture at least 50 miles from home between Tuesday and next Monday.
TSA projects that Tuesday and Wednesday will be the busiest travel days before Thanksgiving as they expect to screen at least 2.8 million people each day.
The good news is folks are checking in and getting through the process quickly at Newark Liberty International Airport.
“Not horrible, I’ve been in worse. I would say the customer service going through United has been pretty good. Definitely very crowded, a lot going on. A little overwhelmed just ready to get to my gate and calm down a little bit,” one traveler said.
“We are two hours before our flight, already checked in, just heading through security. I’m not worried,” said another.
The FAA says it is slowing traffic into Newark Liberty International Airport due to staffing issues at the Philadelphia TRACON (PHL). Check your flight status at Newark and other area airports by clicking on one of the links below:
Newark Liberty International Airport
JFK Airport
LaGuardia Airport
The Transportation Security Administration expects to screen 18.3 million people at U.S. airports during the same seven-day stretch. That would be 6% more than during the corresponding days last year but fit a pattern set throughout 2024.
The TSA predicts that 3 million people will pass through airport security checkpoints on Sunday; more than that could break the record of 3.01 million set on the Sunday after the July Fourth holiday. Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be the next busiest air travel days of Thanksgiving week.
“This is United’s busiest year across our system,” Jonathan Gooda, United VP of Operations said.
United and other airlines across the region are being forced to modify parts of their flight schedules with the ongoing issue of the air traffic controller shortage, which led to flights being slowed down in Newark.
So far, the haven’t been major delays reported.
“We’ve been fairly lucky We come a day earlier and leave later so we should be safe,” Charles Fritz, headed to London said.
Dr. Sharon DiVivo, President and CEO of Vaughn College said it will take a while for newer air traffic controllers to become seasoned enough to work in the most congested airways in the nation.
Training colleges she says are now trying to recruit in more diverse communities.
“It’s intensive training, you have to be able to operate in high stress situations so it’s a tough job,” DiVivo said.
She also said the FAA relaxed some rules that will allow more students to train in the Northeast, which might relieve some pressure.
And it’s not just crowded in the air. Most of the nearly 80-million Americans traveling this week will go by car.
The good news: Drivers should get a slight break on gas prices. The nationwide average price for gasoline was $3.06 a gallon on Sunday, down from $3.27 at this time last year.
Travel can be stressful in the best of times. Now add in the high-level anxiety that seems to be baked into every holiday season and it’s clear travelers could use some help calming frazzled nerves.
Here are a few ways to make your holiday journey a little less stressful:
1. Make a checklist of what you need to do and what you need to bring
2. Carry your comfort with you – think noise-canceling headphones, cozy clothes, snacks and extra medication
3. Stay hydrated
4. Keep up to date on delays, gate changes and cancellations with your airline’s app
Some information from the Associated Press
Raegan Medgie has more on what to expect on the roads and at the airports as people travel for the Thanksgiving holiday.
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‘Busiest Thanksgiving ever’ as 80 million expected to travel for the holiday and record numbers set to flood U.S. airports
Nearly 80 million Americans will venture at least 50 miles from home between Tuesday and next Monday. TSA expects to screen 18.3 million people at U.S. airports during the same seven-day stretch. Airline passengers might get lucky like they did last year, when relatively few flights were canceled. A shortage of air traffic controllers could cause flight delays, though the weather is expected to be good.. The nationwide average price for gasoline was $3.06 a gallon on Sunday, down from $3,27 at this time last year. The TSA predicts that 3 million people will pass through airport security checkpoints on Sunday; more than that could break the record of 3.01 million set on the Sunday after the July Fourth holiday. The FAA has long struggled with a shortage of controllers that airline officials expect will last for years, despite the agency’s lofty hiring goals. A late Thanksgiving leads to a big crush at the end — the Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday after Thanksgiving are usually very busy with Thanksgiving this late.
The people responsible for keeping security lines, boarding areas and jetliners moving — from the U.S. transportation secretary and airline chiefs on down the line — swear they are prepared for the crowds.
Airline passengers might get lucky like they did last year, when relatively few flights were canceled during the holiday week. A repeat will require the weather’s cooperation. And even if skies are blue, a shortage of air traffic controllers could create delays.
Thanksgiving, by the numbers
Auto club and insurance company AAA predicts that nearly 80 million Americans will venture at least 50 miles from home between Tuesday and next Monday. Most of them will travel by car.
Drivers should get a slight break on gas prices. The nationwide average price for gasoline was $3.06 a gallon on Sunday, down from $3.27 at this time last year.
The Transportation Security Administration expects to screen 18.3 million people at U.S. airports during the same seven-day stretch. That would be 6% more than during the corresponding days last year but fit a pattern set throughout 2024.
The TSA predicts that 3 million people will pass through airport security checkpoints on Sunday; more than that could break the record of 3.01 million set on the Sunday after the July Fourth holiday. Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be the next-busiest air travel days of Thanksgiving week.
TSA says it’s ready
“This will be the busiest Thanksgiving ever in terms of air travel,” TSA Administrator David Pekoske said. “Fortunately, our staffing is also at the highest levels that they have ever been. We are ready.”
Pekoske said TSA will have enough screeners to keep general security lines under 30 minutes and lines for people who pay extra for PreCheck under 10 minutes.
FAA staffing shortage could create delays
However, an ongoing shortage of air traffic controllers could cause flight delays.
Federal Aviation Administration Administrator Mike Whitaker said last week that he expects his agency to use special measures to deal with shortages at some facilities. In the past, that has included airports in New York City and Florida.
“If we are short on staff, we will slow traffic as needed to keep the system safe,” Whitaker said.
The FAA has long struggled with a shortage of controllers that airline officials expect will last for years, despite the agency’s lofty hiring goals.
Timing of holiday shapes travel patterns
Thanksgiving Day takes place late this year, with the fourth Thursday of November falling on Nov. 28. That shortens the traditional shopping season and changes the rhythm of holiday travel.
With more time before the holiday, people tend to spread out their outbound travel over more days, but everyone returns at the same time, said Andrew Watterson, the chief operating officer of Southwest Airlines.
“A late Thanksgiving leads to a big crush at the end — the Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday after Thanksgiving are usually very busy with Thanksgiving this late,” Watterson said.
Airlines did a relatively good job of handling holiday crowds last year, when the weather was mild in most of the country. Fewer than 400 U.S. flights were canceled during Thanksgiving week in 2023 — about one of every 450 flights. So far in 2024, airlines have canceled about 1.3% of all flights.
Combining work and leisure
The rise of remote work also has caused the Thanksgiving travel period to expand, AAA spokesperson Aixa Diaz said.
“The pandemic changed everything,” she said. “What we have seen is that post-pandemic, people are leaving at certain times, perhaps even leaving the weekend before Thanksgiving, working remotely from their destination a couple of days, and then enjoying time with their loved ones.”
Nightmares of Thanksgivings past have further shaped holiday traffic jams. Motorists who learned to avoid traveling the day before and the Sunday after Thanksgiving have created new bottlenecks on other days, according to Diaz.
“Because we warned for so long (that) Wednesday and Sunday are the worst days to travel, people were like, ‘OK, I’m going to leave on Tuesday and come back on Monday to avoid the rush,’” she said. “So now those two days are congested as well.”
Advice for travelers
Airport security officials are pleading with passengers to arrive early, not to put lithium-ion batteries in checked bags in case they overheat, and to keep guns out of carry-on bags. TSA has discovered more than 6,000 guns at checkpoints this year, and most of them were loaded.
Holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas bring out many infrequent travelers, and they often have questions about what they can bring on the plane.
TSA has a list on its website of items that are banned or restricted.
Drivers should know that Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons will be the worst times to travel by car, but it should be smooth sailing on freeways come Thanksgiving Day, according to transportation analytics company INRIX.
On the return home, the best travel times for motorists are before 1 p.m. on Sunday, and before 8 a.m. or after 7 p.m. on Monday, the company said.
In metropolitan areas like Boston, Los Angeles, New York, Seattle and Washington, “traffic is expected to be more than double what it typically is on a normal day,” INRIX transportation analyst Bob Pishue said.