KKN Gurugram Desk | The United States has recently ramped up its military presence in the Indian Ocean region, increasing the number of F-15E fighter jets stationed at its Diego Garcia base. This development comes amid growing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, as well as ongoing operations in Yemen targeting Houthi rebels. While the increased deployment of U.S. fighter jets might raise eyebrows, it is important to understand the strategic importance of Diego Garcia and the broader geopolitical context driving these military decisions.

Background: U.S. Fighter Jet Deployment at Diego Garcia

The U.S. military has made significant changes in its deployment strategy near India by enhancing the presence of F-15E fighter jets at its Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean. Diego Garcia, a crucial military base located approximately 1,800 kilometers from India’s Kerala coastline, has been a pivotal point for the U.S. military operations in the region.

This base holds strategic importance not only for the U.S. but also for its allies in the Indo-Pacific region. Recently, the U.S. Air Force increased the number of F-15E Strike Eagles at the base from four to six, signaling a stronger defensive posture amid rising tensions with Iran. This move is part of a broader U.S. strategy to ensure security in the region, especially with the growing instability in the Middle East.

Geopolitical Context: Iran and U.S. Relations

The reason behind this increased deployment is directly tied to the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. has been engaged in strategic maneuvers in the Middle East, especially concerning the ongoing conflicts in Yemen. Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, have posed a significant threat to regional stability, leading the U.S. to ramp up its military presence in key areas like Diego Garcia.

The U.S. government has expressed concerns about the potential for Iranian military aggression, and the presence of F-15s at Diego Garcia serves to bolster defensive capabilities. These fighter jets are not just deployed for defensive measures but also to support the B-52 bombers stationed on the base. The increased number of fighter jets is intended to ensure that any threats to the B-52s, which are strategic bombers, can be dealt with swiftly and effectively.

The Role of Diego Garcia: A Strategic Military Hub

Diego Garcia has long been a critical U.S. military hub in the Indian Ocean. As a key base for the U.S. Air Force, Navy, and Space Force, the base facilitates a variety of operations, including surveillance, intelligence gathering, and strategic bombings. Its strategic location allows the U.S. to monitor activities in the Middle East and Asia, providing a significant advantage in maintaining control over the Indo-Pacific region.

Experts point out that the F-15E fighter jets are particularly suited for the mission in Diego Garcia due to their multi-role capabilities. These fighter jets are highly versatile, capable of performing air-to-air and air-to-ground missions, making them an ideal choice for the defense of the base and the protection of other assets in the region.

With a range of over 2,400 miles, the F-15E jets can cover large distances and provide quick-response capabilities in the event of a threat. Their deployment on Diego Garcia ensures a rapid military response to any potential aggressions, particularly from Iran, which has been increasingly provocative in its activities in the Gulf and broader Middle East region.

The U.S. and Pakistan: A Complicated Relationship

While the focus has been on the U.S.’s increased military presence near India, it is essential to highlight the longstanding and complicated relationship between the U.S. and Pakistan in terms of military cooperation. Over the years, the U.S. has provided Pakistan with F-16 fighter jets as part of its defense aid. However, these jets, initially intended for counterterrorism operations, have often been used by Pakistan in ways that concern India, especially in the context of the ongoing border tensions between India and Pakistan.

The U.S. decision to increase the F-15 deployment at Diego Garcia does not appear to be aimed directly at Pakistan. However, the geopolitical context cannot be ignored, as the U.S. seeks to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific while managing its complicated relationship with Pakistan. The increased U.S. military presence near India sends a clear signal of support for its strategic ally in the region, especially in light of the growing Chinese presence in the South China Sea and beyond.

The U.S. and India’s Strategic Partnership

For India, the increased U.S. military presence in the region is a welcome development. India has long shared strategic concerns with the U.S. regarding China’s assertiveness in the region, and the strengthening of U.S. military assets near India signals a closer alignment between the two countries. While the U.S. military’s presence in Diego Garcia is not intended to target India, it serves as a reassurance to India that the U.S. is committed to its regional security.

India’s participation in the Quad, a strategic security dialogue between the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India, further strengthens its ties with the U.S. in terms of military cooperation. The increased U.S. military presence in the region, particularly in the Indian Ocean, ensures that both countries have a shared interest in maintaining regional stability and countering threats from adversarial powers like China and Iran.

The Military Dynamics in the Indian Ocean Region

The Indian Ocean region is of increasing importance to global powers, especially in terms of trade routes, naval power projection, and security concerns. Diego Garcia, located in the heart of the Indian Ocean, plays a crucial role in this dynamic. The presence of U.S. military assets, such as fighter jets, bombers, and surveillance aircraft, ensures that the U.S. can quickly respond to any threats in the region, particularly from nations like Iran.

The U.S. military’s focus on the Indian Ocean comes at a time when regional tensions are at a high. Iran’s activities in the Strait of Hormuz and its support for proxy groups in the Middle East, such as the Houthis in Yemen, have increased instability. The U.S. aims to prevent any disruption to international shipping lanes and secure the free flow of commerce in this critical region.

Future Implications of U.S. Military Deployment

The future of U.S. military deployment in the Indian Ocean region will depend on several factors, including the ongoing tensions with Iran, the activities of China, and the evolving strategic relationship between the U.S. and India. As China continues to expand its military footprint in the South China Sea and beyond, the U.S. will likely continue to strengthen its military presence in the Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions.

For India, the growing U.S. presence in the region is a sign of increased cooperation and shared strategic interests. The deployment of F-15 jets at Diego Garcia is a reminder of the U.S.’s commitment to ensuring the security of its allies and maintaining stability in the region. As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, India and the U.S. will likely continue to work together to counter common threats and ensure the free flow of trade and security in the Indian Ocean.

The U.S.’s increased deployment of F-15 fighter jets at Diego Garcia highlights the growing strategic importance of the Indian Ocean region. While the deployment is primarily aimed at countering Iran’s actions, it also has significant implications for India, signaling the strengthening of the U.S.-India military partnership. As global dynamics shift, India and the U.S. are increasingly aligned in their efforts to counterbalance the growing influence of China and ensure regional stability.

India’s role in the Quad and its growing cooperation with the U.S. in defense and security matters suggest that the future of U.S.-India relations will continue to evolve in a positive direction. The strategic importance of Diego Garcia and the broader Indian Ocean region will continue to be a focal point for global powers, with the U.S. playing a key role in maintaining stability and security in the region.

The global defence landscape is experiencing significant changes, driven by evolving geopolitical tensions and shifts in policy from major powers. In our view, Trump’s policies have played a pivotal role in reshaping military spending worldwide. His stance on NATO burden-sharing, reduced military aid to Ukraine, and an emphasis on “America First” defence policies have forced many nations, particularly in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, to reassess their defence strategies.

As a result, global military expenditure has surged, with European countries ramping up their defence budgets and Australia strengthening its military alliances. At the same time, rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific, such as China’s military drills in the Tasman Sea, have further underscored the need for stronger defence investments.

This article examines the impact of Trump’s policies on global defence expenditure, focusing on the opportunities arising for European and Australian defence companies. It also explores recent geopolitical developments, such as China’s increasing military assertiveness, and how they are influencing global military spending trends.

Trump’s Defence Policies: A Push for Burden-Sharing

During his presidency, Trump repeatedly criticised NATO allies for failing to meet their defence spending commitments. His administration pressured European nations to increase their military budgets. Trump urged NATO members to meet the existing 2% of GDP defence spending target and occasionally suggested that some allies should contribute even more, though he did not set a formal 5% requirement.

In addition to pushing NATO allies to contribute more to their defence, Trump temporarily withheld military aid to Ukraine in 2019, citing concerns over corruption. The aid was later released, but this occurred before the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022. This decision had a significant ripple effect, forcing European nations to step up their military commitments.

His broader “America First” approach to foreign policy, including a reassessment of U.S. military aid and alliances, led to an increased focus on self-reliance among America’s allies, compelling them to boost their defence industries and procurement strategies.

The Impact on European Defence Spending

Trump’s policies and the shifting security landscape have led to a renewed focus on military self-sufficiency in Europe. With U.S. aid to Ukraine suspended and continued concerns over Russian aggression, European nations have recognised the need to bolster their defences.

The “ReArm Europe” Initiative

In reaction, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced the “ReArm Europe” initiative, aimed at increasing defence spending by up to €800 billion over the next few years. This ambitious plan includes:

€650 billion of new military spending via the loosening of EU Stability and Growth Pact rules.

€150 billion in EU-backed loans to member states addressing essential military capabilities, such as missile defence systems, drones, and cyber security.

Increased investment in joint European defence projects to reduce reliance on U.S. military support.

Surge in European Defence Stocks

The policy shift has already driven substantial gains in European defence stocks. Investors are wagering on higher military outlays, and companies like BAE Systems, Thales, and Rheinmetall have all seen their market value soar. European states have been moving rapidly to increase their defence budgets while expecting that demand will rise sharply for weapons systems, ammunition, and defence technology, opening lucrative opportunities for defence contractors.

Challenges in Scaling Up Defence Production

However, while European countries are committed to increasing defence spending, challenges remain. Many European defence firms are constrained by capacity following years of deindustrialisation and dwindling domestic military production. Over the last two decades, many European nations have considerably decreased their military manufacturing capability, whereas the U.S. has a large and advanced defence industrial base.

Now, with urgent demands for tanks, artillery, drones, and air defence systems, European defence makers are finding it difficult to keep up with production requirements. Countries such as Germany and France are investing in new production lines, but scaling up military manufacturing is a slow-moving process, and it will take years to produce significant output.

Opportunities for Australian Defence Companies

As a vital U.S. ally and an important component of AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom, and the United States), Australia is undergoing an important period of growth in its defence field. The partnership paves the way for more in-depth integration with the U.S. and UK defence supply chains, especially in advanced defence technology and electrification.

One specific example of such efforts is 3ME Technologies, an Australian firm that develops high-performance battery systems for military vehicles. With an emphasis on electrification and more sustainable defence mobility, the company is growing its footprint in the region, strengthening supply chains that underpin U.S. military logistics activities. This aligns with Australia’s broader drive to advance its tech capabilities in defence.

Adding to this growth momentum, the U.S. Congress recently passed partial exemptions from International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) for both Australia and the U.K. The move removes a significant amount of bureaucracy, enabling quicker and easier defence deals to go forward between the three allies. This deal means Australian firms will have increased access to U.S. and U.K. military markets, streamlining how they supply advanced equipment and technology and removing previous regulatory barriers.

Supporting this expansion is Australia’s $270 billion plan to invest in its military over the next decade. The financing will focus on expanding naval and air defence, rising cyber threats, missile capabilities, and space technology. With increasing regional security concerns, Australia is prioritising the development of modern warfare capabilities to ensure its military is prepared for emerging threats.

Regional Security Concerns: The Tasman Sea Incident

As much of the world’s attention is on conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, tensions are rising ever more sharply in the Indo-Pacific region. Security concerns have intensified in recent weeks following an incident in which the Chinese state-controlled warship, the Changsha, conducted live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea without notifying Australia ahead of time, underscoring the need for maritime defence to be strengthened.

The unannounced naval drills caught Australian defence officials off guard and have ignited fresh debate around the need for jet-fuelled maritime surveillance and protection procedures. As China expands its military footprint across the Pacific, Australia is likely to accelerate its naval investments to hedge against potential risk. This includes the procurement of new submarines, warships, and advanced surveillance technologies under the AUKUS framework.

The Tasman Sea incident highlights the rising volatility in the Indo-Pacific region and also stresses the strategic importance of AUKUS in ensuring the long-term security of Australia. In the face of escalating geopolitical uncertainties, trusting relationships with the U.S. and U.K. will remain extremely important in supporting regional stability and a rules-based international order.

Apart from naval security, Australia might also increase its cooperation in defence with other Indo-Pacific nations, such as Japan, India, and South Korea, to deter militarily aggressive manoeuvres in the region. The incident is a stark reminder that Australia needs to constantly stay a step ahead whenever dealing with emerging threats to security if it is to protect its sovereignty and national interests.

Global Defence Spending Trends and Challenges

The broader impact of these policy shifts is evident in global military expenditure, which reached record highs in 2025. Countries around the world are prioritising modernisation initiatives to improve defence preparedness, resulting in a growing demand for advanced weaponry, cyber defence capabilities, and AI-supported warfare systems.

However, this surge in spending is not without challenges. In Europe, the growing defence budgets need to be counterbalanced with economic constraints. Many EU countries suffer high debt levels, making long-term military spending politically sensitive.

For Australia, integrating into the U.S. defence industrial base presents regulatory and logistical hurdles. Though ITAR exemptions have alleviated some restrictions, Australian defence companies still have to satisfy rigorous U.S. military standards — a process that can take time and complexity.

Also, keeping a qualified defence manufacturing workforce is a growing challenge. As many countries ramp up production, a competitive environment is developing for skilled engineers and technicians, which could lead to bottlenecks in the defence supply chain.

Conclusion: A New Era in Global Military Spending

Trump’s defence policies have undeniably reshaped global military spending, compelling allies to take more responsibility for their security. Europe has responded with defence budgets at record levels, while Australia is using its AUKUS partnership to deepen its military capabilities.

Simultaneously, increasing tensions, including China’s recent military activity in the Tasman Sea, are driving the urgent need for more defence spending. Although these adjustments provide opportunities for defence firms around the world, they also pose hurdles in areas such as supply chain capacity, workforce availability, and fiscal sustainability.

As the world adapts to this new security landscape, nations will need to balance their defence priorities with broader economic and political considerations. The next decade will likely see further shifts in global military alliances and defence expenditure patterns, shaping the future of international security.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

China’s military expansion: A global power shift in the making

Beijing’s accelerating military buildup and strategic technological advancements raise urgent concerns for the U.S. and its allies worldwide.

Drones in formation of an aircraft carrier and fighter jets in Zhengzhou, China, in August 2023. Beijing is significantly ramping up its air force, navy and drone fleets, among other military branches, readying to confront the U.S. and its allies. © Getty Images

× In a nutshell China seeks dominance through technology, naval and nuclear capabilities

U.S. and European defense industries lag, risking their prosperity

The developed world mulls responses to deter Beijing’s military ambitions

In October, General Charles A. Flynn, head of the United States Army in the Pacific, warned about China’s intensifying military expansion, describing it as an urgent threat to the region’s stability. His remarks followed China’s Joint Sword-2024B military exercises, a tightly choreographed show of strength that involved the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) ground, naval, air, coast guard and rocket forces – a likely rehearsal for an eventual blockade or invasion of Taiwan. Soon after, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged the country’s military to prepare for war.

Despite current economic headwinds, China’s military is on a wartime footing, underpinned by a defense industrial base rapidly developing and producing weapons systems intended to deter the U.S. – or, should deterrence fail, to position Beijing for victory in a great-power conflict. Defense spending has surged this year, with official Chinese data indicating a 7.2 percent increase, the third consecutive year of growth exceeding 7 percent. China has become the world’s largest shipbuilder, with a capacity 230 times greater than that of the U.S. Its navy is the largest globally, and its arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles is expanding at an unprecedented rate, with its nuclear stockpile growing faster than any other nation. The PLA, too, is pursuing innovative technologies and warfare tactics, like the self-splitting swarming drones unveiled in March.

So far, developed countries have shown themselves unable or, in some instances, seemingly unwilling to keep pace. U.S. defense production stalled following the end of the Cold War, leaving behind a system that cannot credibly deter China, much less sustain a two- or possibly three-front war across the Indo-Pacific, Europe and the Middle East if fresh conflicts break out. Meanwhile, years of neglect have left Europe’s defenses dilapidated, barely able to check Russian aggression in Ukraine. Despite European politicians’ occasional murmurs of concern over China in addition to threats from the Kremlin, the conversion of talk into action remains elusive. And what Japan, a critical U.S. ally, does have in will, it lacks in ability, still largely reliant on Washington for support.

If the aim is to genuinely deter China, the U.S. and its allies will have to invest considerable resources and focus into military readiness. This goes beyond simply keeping pace. A robust military posture is needed to compel Beijing to reconsider any military action. Without this, the balance of power risks shifting further in its favor.

A ‘world-class military’

President Xi has made clear that a “world-class military” is essential to his vision of China’s national rejuvenation by 2049, a goal that has defined his agenda since he assumed control of the Chinese Communist Party in 2012. In 2015, he initiated the most sweeping overhaul of the People’s Liberation Army since the 1950s, introducing a streamlined joint command structure closely modeled on the U.S. military.

The reforms reorganized the previous seven military regions into five theater commands and created a Joint Staff Department to coordinate integrated, multi-domain operations. They also introduced the PLA Rocket Force, now responsible for China’s nuclear and conventional missiles, and the Strategic Support Force (SSF), tasked with space, cyber and electronic warfare capabilities.

Among the army, navy, air force and rocket force, President Xi has prioritized the navy.

The SSF was disbanded in April this year, which marked the most significant reorganization of China’s military since 2015. It reemerged as the Information Support Force. Yet beyond a mere rebranding, the move signaled a deliberate shift in the PLA’s strategic orientation, aimed at enhancing its capabilities in information warfare and cyber operations – regarded by the CCP as the “largest variable[s]” in contemporary conflict. For Beijing, these capabilities are not isolated functions but are instead tightly integrated across the “four services”: the army, navy, air force and rocket force. Among these, President Xi has prioritized the navy.

A ‘great maritime power’

China’s emergence as a “great maritime power,” ideally by 2035, is essential to President Xi’s vision of a “world-class military” paving the way for national rejuvenation. Drawing lessons from centuries of sea mastery by the U.S., the United Kingdom and their allies – an achievement that secured their global influence, leadership and control of shipping lanes – Beijing is intent on realizing the same.

As of August, the PLA Navy (PLAN) boasted 370 platforms, including major surface combatants, ocean-going amphibious ships, submarines, aircraft carriers, mine warfare ships and fleet auxiliaries. This number is expected to rise to 395 ships next year and reach 435 by 2030. By comparison, the U.S. Navy has 296 battle force ships, which it expects will decline to 294 by 2030, leaving Washington with far fewer ships than the anticipated Chinese number. The UK’s Royal Navy, Europe’s largest after Russia, has just 45 ships.

Under Beijing’s strategy of military-civil fusion, in which ostensibly civilian assets are repurposed by the central government for military ends, China’s maritime ambitions further benefit from the world’s largest fishing fleet, with an estimated 500,000 vessels, of which up to 3,000 operate as the “distant-water fleet.” Civilian shipping vessels, too, are often used to mask PLA troops’ movements and provide logistical support to China’s South China Sea outposts, as are cruise ships.

Once dismissed as military platforms with the advent of amphibious attack ships in the 1950s, cruise ships are again being considered as potential assault platforms. For instance, China’s first domestically produced liner, Adora Magic City, launched in December 2023, could deploy more than 6,000 troops in a single wave. Assessing China’s military capacity is challenging because virtually any asset in the communist country can be directed toward this end.

Adora Magic City, the first made-in-China large cruise ship, in Shanghai. Such ostensibly civilian vessels could be swiftly repurposed to deploy huge numbers of soldiers from the centrally-controlled communist country. © Getty Images

China’s maritime expansion is underpinned by a vast and increasingly sophisticated defense-industrial base. Today, five of the world’s top 12 defense companies are Chinese – an impressive leap from none a decade ago. These firms produce diverse technologies, including diesel engines, advanced electronic systems, submarines and unmanned systems such as autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) and drones. In 2019, China introduced its first large-displacement AUV, the HSU-001, intended for missions such as intelligence preparation of the environment and anti-submarine warfare. While it is thought to be operational within the PLAN, details on its capabilities have remained elusive. Since then, Beijing has unveiled additional extra-large AUVs, which are larger than the HSU-001.

In an ecosystem where just one Chinese shipyard – Jiangnan, on Changxing Island along China’s eastern coast – is believed to possess a capacity greater than all U.S. shipyards combined, such a rapid churn should not be surprising.

Future wars and mystery drones

Beijing is also modernizing its strategic missile arsenal. By 2030, it is expected to have more than 1,000 nuclear warheads, many of which are likely to have the range to strike the continental U.S. While this stockpile still trails behind those of the U.S. and Russia, the pace of Beijing’s nuclear buildup is unmatched by any nation.

So, too, is the expansion of its space capabilities. In November, the head of the U.S. Space Force warned that China is deploying military capabilities into space at a “mind-boggling” rate, increasing the risk of warfare in orbit. In both 2022 and 2023, China led in defense-related satellite launches. Last December, it launched Yaogan-41, a remote-sensing satellite capable of identifying and tracking car-sized objects in the Indo-Pacific – a move that threatens the U.S. and allied assets in the region.

China is deploying military capabilities into space at a ‘mind-boggling’ rate, increasing the risk of warfare in orbit.

Beijing’s space efforts are a key pillar of its broader “intelligentized” warfare strategy. First introduced by the CCP in 2019, intelligentized warfare prioritizes advanced technologies, namely autonomous systems and Artificial Intelligence, to improve battlefield efficiency and sway the decision-making processes of adversaries.

Chinese military strategists assert that such an approach hinges on superior information-processing capabilities, AI-driven analysis and drone swarms. The threat is real: Mystery drones were observed over Langley Air Force Base in Virginia in October, and more recently above military bases in the UK housing American forces, and in New Jersey above Donald Trump’s properties and a U.S. military research and manufacturing facility. Critically, intelligentized warfare marks a shift toward the cognitive domain as a critical battlefield alongside the physical and information spheres. The recent establishment of the Information Support Force seems to support this view.

A question of deterrence

The erstwhile leaders of the developed world have formidable capabilities in the information age. However, they have yet to articulate, let alone operationalize, a comparable cognitive warfare concept aligned with security objectives.

The aim of Washington and its allies, too, should be not merely defensive but offensive. The current lack of urgency is puzzling.

The U.S. and its allies also have yet to effectively mobilize their defense industrial base to deter, much less surpass, Beijing’s military capabilities, which are increasingly geared toward conflict with the U.S.-based order. The aim of Washington and its allies, too, should be not merely defensive but offensive. The current lack of urgency is puzzling.

Europe, for its part, released its inaugural Defense Industrial Strategy (EDIS) in March. The non-binding strategy is ostensibly designed to make the bloc “ready for war.” It proposes reducing regulatory barriers, increasing defense investment and revitalizing small and medium-sized defense firms. Yet the funding is extremely modest: A mere 1.5 billion euros is earmarked for 2025 to 2027. The initiative also adds fresh layers of bureaucracy, a feature Europe might prefer to pare down.

Read more by Chinese policy expert Dr. Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu

The EDIS additionally faces the familiar challenge of unifying a fragmented continent, notably on matters of security and China. It is, for instance, hardly credible to think that France or the UK would permit any other state – let alone an unelected European Union official – to dictate their nuclear postures. And while Germany continues to deepen its dependency on China, countries like Lithuania instead raise the alarm.

It will take years, if not decades, to restore Europe’s defense capabilities. Even if these efforts are accelerated, the current geopolitical landscape suggests that the continent’s forces would be more suitably deployed within Europe itself, focused on countering Russian aggression rather than diverting resources on a pivot to the Pacific. The task of countering China remains largely with the U.S. and, to a lesser degree, its Indo-Pacific allies such as Australia, India and Japan, through groupings like the Quad and AUKUS.

American defense shortfalls

Yet, while not as severely impaired as Europe’s, America’s defense industrial base is also weakened. The U.S. military lacks the munitions and equipment needed for a prolonged conflict with China and the information warfare capabilities to counter Beijing’s cognitive warfare efforts. War games simulating a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, for instance, suggest the U.S. would likely run out of long-range, precision-guided missiles in under a week.

America’s defense industrial base currently lacks the surge capacity to make up for this and other shortfalls. Its supply chains, too, are fragile, relying on foreign sources – notably China – for critical minerals such as iron, ferroalloy metals and nonferrous metals – all key to defense production.

In an ominous sign, Beijing announced in early December it was cutting off exports of gallium, germanium and antimony to the U.S. in response to Washington further restricting semiconductor deliveries to China. The Chinese move aiming to cripple U.S. production of vital military equipment was, however, not unexpected. Washington is developing alternate sources of critical minerals, including in Africa, while in Europe there is a modest effort to develop resources in Sweden.

× Scenarios Possible: U.S. takes the initiative and counters Chinese capabilities The incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump appears to grasp the urgency of the matter. His platform advocates for a revitalized U.S. industrial base, a reshoring of critical supply chains and heightened investment in advanced military technologies, including an Iron Dome-style defense system. Should his administration succeed in implementing these and other defense-critical reforms – such as more flexible defense contracting and weapons acquisition processes, for instance – China’s apparent military advantage could eventually be blunted. With strengthened and well-supported American alliances, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, China’s appetite for conflict could be not eliminated but at least tempered. Likely: China to maintain pace of military buildup regardless of U.S. posture The pressing question, however, is how swiftly American measures and defense buildup could be brought to bear. President Xi, steadfast in his pursuit of China’s national rejuvenation, is unlikely to ease his expansion of China’s military capabilities. Aware that the U.S. and Europe might soon shift to their own wartime footing, Mr. Xi could yet seek to act before American capabilities begin to match – or potentially exceed – China’s. Conflict, then, might be closer than anticipated, with a U.S. ill-prepared to counter Chinese aggression. It might be time for Washington to prepare itself with what it has – and quickly.

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China says it is ready for ‘any type of war’ with US

5 March 2025 Share Save Laura Bicker BBC News, Beijing Share Save

Reuters President Xi Jinping’s China faces the prospect of a trade war with Donald Trump’s US

China has warned the US it is ready to fight “any type” of war after hitting back against President Donald Trump’s mounting trade tariffs. The world’s top two economies have edged closer to a trade war after Trump slapped more tariffs on all Chinese goods. China quickly retaliated imposing 10-15% tariffs on US farm products. “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end,” China’s embassy said on X, reposting a line from a government statement on Tuesday. It is some of the strongest rhetoric so far from China since Trump became president and comes as leaders gathered in Beijing for the annual National People’s Congress.

On Wednesday, China’s Premier Li Qiang announced that China would again boost its defence spending by 7.2% this year and warned that “changes unseen in a century were unfolding across the world at a faster pace.” This increase was expected and matches the figure announced last year. Leaders in Beijing are trying to send a message to people in China that they are confident the country’s economy can grow, even with the threat of a trade war. China has been keen to portray an image of being a stable, peaceful country in contrast to the US, which Beijing accuses of being embroiled in wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. China may also hope to capitalise on Trump’s actions relating to US allies such as Canada and Mexico, which have also been hit by tariffs, and will not want to ramp up the rhetoric too far to scare off potential new global partners.

The Premier’s speech in Beijing on Wednesday emphasised that China would continue to open up and hoped to attract more foreign investment. China has, in the past emphasised that it is ready to go to war. Last October, President Xi called for troops to strengthen their preparedness for war as they held military drills around the self-governing island of Taiwan. But there is a difference between military preparedness and a readiness to go to war.

Reuters Beijing is to increase military spending by more than 7% this year

The Chinese embassy in Washington’s post quoted a foreign ministry statement in English from the previous day, which also accused the US of blaming China for the influx of the drug fentanyl “The fentanyl issue is a flimsy excuse to raise US tariffs on Chinese imports,” the foreign ministry spokesperson said. “Intimidation does not scare us. Bullying does not work on us. Pressuring, coercion or threats are not the right way of dealing with China,” he added. The US-China relationship is always one of the most contentious in the world. This post on X has been widely shared and could be used by the China hawks in Trump’s cabinet as evidence that Beijing is Washington’s biggest foreign policy and economic threat. Officials in Beijing had been hopeful that US–China relations under Trump could get off to a more cordial start after he invited Xi to his inauguration. Trump also said the two leaders had “a great phone call” just a few days before he entered the White House. There were reports that the two leaders were due to have another call last month. That did not happen. Xi had already been battling persistently low consumption, a property crisis and unemployment. China has pledged to pump billions of dollars into its ailing economy and its leaders unveiled the plan as thousands of delegates attend the National People’s Congress, a rubber-stamp parliament, which passes decisions already made behind closed doors. China has the world’s second-largest military budget at $245bn but it is far smaller than that of the US. Beijing spends 1.6% of GDP on its military, far less than the US or Russia, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. However, analysts believe China downplays how much it spends on defence.

Inside look at U.S. Marines training in Australia amid tensions with China

Townsville Field Training Area, Queensland, Australia — The U.S. is expanding its military presence in northern Australia as it looks to project power and provide a deterrence against the increasing threat of China in the Asia-Pacific. China’s President Xi Jinping is thought to have ordered his armed forces to be ready to invade the island of Taiwan by 2027, if necessary, raising fears of a conflict that could draw in American forces.

In response to Beijing’s expanding footprint in the region, the U.S. has seen Australia, a country located around two-and-a-half-thousand miles south of China, as a key strategic partner.

U.S. Marines participate in joint military drills in Australia. CBS News

In 2012, the first deployment of roughly 200 U.S. Marines rotated through the country’s Northern Territory. Now it’s close to 2,500 each year. The U.S. military presence is now at its biggest since 1945 at the end of the Second World War.

CBS News gained access to a U.S. Marine Corps exercise, including Australian and Japanese allies in the rugged outback, as preparations against Chinese aggression ramps up.

The exercise involved Australian troops playing the role of enemy combatants who attack a platoon of U.S. Marines. The drill was conducted by more than 500 U.S. Marines and over 2,000 troops in total, across an area bigger than the state of Maryland.

“Knowing how one another works is of the utmost importance and being ready to respond is something critical,” Major Nicholas Foust, the officer commanding the exercise with U.S. Marine Rotational Force-Darwin, told CBS News.

Military experts say a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not inevitable and that China may want to avoid war, especially with the U.S. But China’s armed forces are going through an unprecedented modernization — from aircraft carriers to hypersonic missiles.

While the key goal for the U.S. and its allies in the region is to deter any potential Chinese aggression, Brigadier Ben McLennan, commander of the Australian Defence Force’s 3rd Brigade, told CBS News that they are preparing for the worst possible outcome.

“Every time you commit to an exercise like this, it is a rehearsal — and you treat it as your last opportunity to do so before war arrives,” he said. “A rehearsal for a war the likes of which we haven’t seen since the Second World War.”