The United Democratic Front’s (UDF) impressive win in the Nilambur Assembly byelection has set a strong precedent ahead of the upcoming local body and Assembly polls. Notably, this could be the last byelection of the current Assembly term with the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in power.

While the UDF and the LDF retained their respective seats in the byelections held in Thrikkakara, Puthuppally, Palakkad, and Chelakkara, Nilambur proved to be a game changer with the UDF wresting the seat from the LDF.

In the intensely contested byelection, where both the UDF and the LDF invested heavily in resources and campaigning, anti-incumbency sentiment proved pivotal to UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath’s victory. M. Swaraj was likely one of the strongest candidates the LDF could have fielded, yet he still could not sway the voters in the government’s favour.

Despite a high-profile campaign backed by over a dozen Ministers and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, the LDF could not escape the weight of anti-incumbency sentiments in Nilambur. Those sentiments were fuelled by issues such as escalating human-animal conflicts impacting settler hill farmers and the LDF government’s confrontation with striking ASHA workers. ASHA workers even campaigned against Mr. Swaraj in Nilambur.

The LDF’s strategy to label the UDF as communal due to the Welfare Party of India’s (WPI) support backfired. This tactic, stemming from the LDF’s 2019 split with the Jamaat-e-Islami, failed to resonate with voters.

The UDF’s unity was on full display during the byelection, with all major constituents backing chairman V.D. Satheesan and Congress State president Sunny Joseph. Mr. Satheesan’s decision to reject P.V. Anvar from joining the UDF paid off, thanks to the UDF victory. Nilambur result bolstered Mr. Satheesan’s position and increased Mr. Joseph’s popularity.

Mr. Anvar, whose resignation led to the June 19 byelection, managed to secure nearly 20,000 votes, showcasing his clout in Nilambur. Although he attributed his vote share to anti-Pinarayi sentiment, the UDF is aware that his votes were substantial enough to potentially alter the outcome.

With two major elections in sight within one year, Mr. Anvar seems keen on joining the UDF, recognising his influence is largely confined to Nilambur. UDF leaders appear cautious about his potential entry. The KPCC president diplomatically remarked that any closed door can be opened with the right key, hinting at a possible welcome for Mr. Anvar.