Published : Jun 23, 2025 16:25 IST – 4 MINS READ

The stage is set for an exciting contest in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election, after the main opposition combine, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), won the bitterly contested byelection in Nilambur on June 23 by a comfortable margin of 11,077 votes.

In the two byelections held in 2024 in the State, the UDF had retained its Palakkad seat while the Left Democratic Front (LDF) held on to the Chelakkara seat.

“This is what we expected,” said Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee president Sunny Joseph, when the Congress candidate was comfortable placed with a lead of over 10,000 votes and well on his way to victory. “We expected it from the beginning,” he added.

The victory seals Sunny Joseph’s position at the top of the KPCC hierarchy, effectively shutting out competition to the slot. It was only in May 2025 that the three-time MLA was named PCC president. Congress leader V.D. Satheesan, Leader of the Opposition in the Kerala Assembly, who was widely expected to lead the party into 2026, will now have to be one of Sunny Joseph’s lieutenants.

Anti-incumbency, minority consolidation

Clearly, the ground has shifted in Kerala. This was a seat that the LDF had held for the past two terms. Anti-incumbency and minority consolidation in favour of the UDF helped, and an independent candidate managed to get a substantial number of votes, haemorrhaging the LDF vote bank.

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Although sagging under the weight of rebels and contradictions, the UDF fought the election in each home and each street, and was propelled to a welcome victory. Its candidate, Aryadan Shoukath, defeated 10 candidates, including the ruling LDF’s M. Swaraj.

The presence of former Nilambur MLA and independent candidate P.V. Anvar added an unpredictable dimension to the contest. In the end, Anvar, who had won with the LDF support in the last two instances, ensured the LDF’s defeat.

Shoukath secured 77,737 votes (44.17 per cent), while Swaraj got 66,660 votes (37.88 per cent). Anvar polled a significant 19,760 votes, accounting for 11.23 per cent of the total.

In his defeat, Anvar proved his importance in Nilambur. It is only a matter of time before the Indian Union Muslim League begins talks with him on behalf of the UDF.

The BJP, which is wooing Christians in Kerala, fielded Mohan George, only to see him place fourth in the contest.

The June 19 election day saw over 1.76 lakh voters (about 76 per cent) turn up at the 263 polling booths in the constituency. The election was necessitated by the resignation of Anvar. He was angry with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan for ignoring him during Cabinet formation, and later, for not considering him for any post. Anvar later joined the All India Trinamool Congress, a party that does not exist in Kerala.

Shot in the arm for Congress

For the Congress, the victory could not have come at a better time. It was dealing with internal dissensions in the form of fourth-time MP Shashi Tharoor’s remarks about the leadership, the fact that Sunny Joseph was a newbie to the post, and the decision to break ties with Anvar, who had hoped to get the UDF endorsement for this byelection.

Tharoor, Kerala’s most popular Congressman, was missing from the party’s campaign in Nilambur. He had stated that this was because of his engagements abroad after Operation Sindoor.

On another occasion, he had also stated that he would have been in the campaign if he had been invited. Congress leaders in Kerala expressed their unhappiness over this statement. One of them said that as a true Congress worker, he should have landed up in Nilambur and taken up campaign work wherever possible

“I agree that he was not invited. But what prevents him from showing up and doing a campaign?” asked a mid-level leader. The reaction is also an indicator that the party has many internal issues, and Tharoor is one of them.

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Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra had campaigned in the constituency. She accused the LDF government of politicising welfare pension payments. Nilambur is part of her parliamentary constituency, Wayanad. While she had taken a keen interest in the campaign and the manner in which it was conducted, she did not interfere with the campaign, a Congress leader said.

The local body elections are slated to be held in Kerala later this year. The worry for the LDF is the fact that it did not do as well as it expected in Nilambur town, considered a bastion of the Communist Party of India (Marxist). This is indicative of a change in preference of the voters in urban areas, and possibly a hint at the anti- incumbency sentiment that has set in.

The BJP had hoped for a Hindu-Christian consolidation that it had worked out in Thrissur during the Lok Sabha election. In Nilambur, however, it managed just over 8,500 votes, which makes it clear that the Hindu-Christian vote consolidation has its limitations and works only under certain conditions. The BJP said that it was happy that it had improved its vote share in the constituency.