UK prepares for war: How much will it cost?
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Diverging Reports Breakdown
Keir Starmer Puts The UK On A War Footing As He Warns Of ‘Growing Russian Aggression’
Prime Minister said he wanted to deliver ‘peace through strength’ Row broke out over how Labour plans to pay for its plans. Defence spending will increase to 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2034. But opposition parties criticised the government for failing to set out how it will pay for the defence spending plans. The government has announced it will spend 2.5% of GDP on defence by 2027, with an ambition of hitting 3% in the next parliament. At a Nato summit later this month, member states will be told that they should increase their defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP. The UK faces greater threats now than at any time since the end of the Cold War.
Keir Starmer has put the UK on a war footing as he warned of “growing Russian aggression” at sea, in the air and cyberspace.
The prime minister said he wanted to deliver “peace through strength” as he launched the government’s strategic defence review (SDR).
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But a row broke out over how Labour plans to pay for its plans, which include building up to 12 new attack submarines, thousands of long-range missiles, six munitions factories and billions of pounds worth of nuclear warheads.
Starmer refused to echo defence secretary John Healey in confirming that defence spending will increase to 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2034.
In a major speech in Glasgow, the PM said: “We are moving to warfighting readiness as the central purpose of our armed forces.
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“When we are being directly threatened by states with advanced military forces, the most effective way to deter them is to be ready – and, frankly, to show them that we’re ready – to deliver peace through strength.”
Starmer said “the front line is here” as he warned that the UK faces greater threats now than at any time since the end of the Cold War more than 30 years ago.
He said: “We face war in Europe, new nuclear risks, daily cyber attacks. Growing Russian aggression in our waters, menacing our skies.
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“Their reckless actions driving up the cost of living here at home, creating economic pain and hitting working people the hardest.
“A new era in the threats we face demands a new era for defence and security, not just to survive in this new world – but to lead.”
The government has announced it will spend 2.5% of GDP on defence by 2027, with an ambition of hitting 3% in the next parliament.
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However, the SDR’s own authors have warned that the military budget must hit that 3% target if the government’s military plans are to be affordable.
Meanwhile, at a Nato summit later this month, member states will be told that they should increase their defence spending to 3.5% of GDP.
Opposition parties criticised the government for failing to set out how it will pay for its defence spending plans.
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Shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge said: “All of Labour’s strategic defence review promises will be taken with a pinch of salt unless they can show there will actually be enough money to pay for them.”
Lib Dem defence spokesperson Helen Maguire said ministers were showing “a worrying lack of urgency”.
“Unless Labour commits to holding cross-party talks on how to reach 3% much more rapidly than the mid-2030s, this announcement risks becoming a damp squib,” she said.
Reform UK’s deputy leader Richard Tice said: “The commitments made in this defence review are completely empty if Labour does not commit to spending 3% of GDP on defence.”
UK government prepared to take Roman Abramovich to court in bid to extract £2.5billion from Chelsea sale
The UK government forced Abramovich to sell Chelsea in May 2022. The £2.5bn from the sale remains frozen in a UK bank account linked to Abramovich. Abramovich wants the money to benefit all the victims of the Ukraine war. But the UK Government wants it to be ring-fenced for humanitarian causes. Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Foreign Secretary David Lammy say they are prepared to take the Russian oligarch to court to retrieve the funds. A representative for Abramovich has not yet responded to a request for comment from The Athletic. The Athletic previously reported that a key reason for the delay is because Abramovich and the UK government are yet to find an agreement on how the money should be spent.
The UK government, then led by Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson, forced Abramovich to sell the Premier League side after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Abramovich was described by the Government as a “pro-Kremlin oligarch,” and his assets were sanctioned.
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It was then announced by Abramovich via a statement on Chelsea’s website on March 2, 2022, that “all net proceeds from the sale will be donated for the benefit of all victims of the war in Ukraine”.
The club was eventually sold to Clearlake Capital and Todd Boehly in May 2022.
But more than three years on from that sale, the £2.5bn ($3.6bn; €3bn at today’s rates) remains frozen in a UK bank account linked to Abramovich.
This has now led Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Foreign Secretary David Lammy to say they are prepared to take Abramovich to court to retrieve the funds.
“The Government is determined to see the proceeds from the sale of Chelsea Football Club reach humanitarian causes in Ukraine, following Russia’s illegal full-scale invasion,” Reeves and Lammy said in a joint statement.
“We are deeply frustrated that it has not been possible to reach an agreement on this with Mr Abramovich so far.
“While the door for negotiations will remain open, we are fully prepared to pursue this through the courts if required, to ensure people suffering in Ukraine can benefit from these proceeds as soon as possible.”
The Athletic previously reported that a key reason for the delay is because Abramovich and the UK government are yet to find an agreement on how the money should be spent.
Abramovich wants the £2.5bn to benefit all the victims of the war, including Russian soldiers, and wants it to also be used to help other charitable causes outside of Ukraine.
But the UK Government, now led by Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer, wants it to be ring-fenced for humanitarian causes in Ukraine — a position that was also held by Johnson in 2022.
Mike Penrose, a former chief executive of UNICEF UK, was appointed to set up an organisation for the £2.5bn to be distributed.
But until an agreement can be found between Abramovich and the UK Government, there will not be a foundation for Penrose to oversee.
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In March, Emily Thornberry, a Labour MP and chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, which examines the policy, administration, and expenditure of the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, told The Athletic: “It is ridiculous that £2.5bn is being withheld from the victims of the war in Ukraine whilst Abramovich bickers about what he has agreed to do.”
A representative for Abramovich has been approached for comment.
(Cem Ozdel/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Starmer couldn’t be clearer: Britain must prepare for war
Sir Keir Starmer unveils government’s Strategic Defence Review. UK’s armed forces must move to “war-fighting readiness” over coming years. UK faces a “more serious and immediate” threat than anytime since Cold War. Starmer refused to explain when he would deliver on spending 3% of GDP on defence. He promised an end to ‘sticking plaster politics’ but is now ‘lashing out’ at voters. Is his choice properly-funded defence, or is it to reverse winter fuel cuts, or lift the two-child benefit cap? If he needs to be the prime minister creating the warfare state, can he also deliver what voters and his own MPs want when it comes to the welfare state? He doesn’t want to answer the question about the choices he’s perhaps going to make. But he is really clear-eyed about the threat and what is required for the UK to become ready for war, and what he is going to answer it is.
On Monday, at a shipbuilding yard in Glasgow, Sir Keir Starmer presented himself as a Labour prime minister who wants to be credited with turning the UK into a warfare-ready state, as he spoke of the need for the UK to be prepared for the possibility of war at the launch of his government’s Strategic Defence Review.
The rhetoric couldn’t be clearer: Britain is on a wartime footing.
The UK’s armed forces must move to “war-fighting readiness” over the coming years, the UK faces a “more serious and immediate” threat than anytime since the Cold War, and “every citizen must play their part”.
Politics latest: Britain must be ‘battle-ready’
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The prime minister promised to fulfil the recommendations of the 10-year strategic defence plan, which will be published in full on Monday afternoon.
But what he refused to do was explain when he would deliver on spending 3% of GDP on defence – the commitment necessary to deliver the recommendations in the Strategic Defence Review.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 8:36 Starmer unveils the Strategic Defence Review
PM is sticking plasters over wounds
His refusal to do so blunts his argument. On the one hand, the prime minister insists there is no greater necessity than protecting citizens, while on the other hand, he says his ability to deliver 3% of spending on defence is “subject to economic and fiscal conditions”.
This is a prime minister who promised an end to “sticking plaster politics”, who promised to take difficult decisions in the interest of the country.
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One of those difficult decisions could well be deciding, if necessary, to cut other budgets in order to find the 3% needed for defence spending.
Instead, the prime minister is sticking plasters over wounds.
After voters lashed out at Labour in the local elections, the Starmer government announced it was going to look again at the cut to pensioners’ winter fuel allowance.
There is an expectation, too, that Sir Keir is planning to lift the two-child cap on benefits. Refusing to lift the cap was one of his hard choices going into the election, but now he is looking soft on it.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player 2:15 Will the Strategic Defence Review make Britain safer?
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What choices is Starmer prepared to make?
That’s why I asked him on Monday what the choices are that he’s going to make as prime minister. Is his choice properly-funded defence, or is it to reverse winter fuel cuts, or lift the two-child benefit cap?
If he needs to be the prime minister creating the warfare state, can he also deliver what voters and his own MPs want when it comes to the welfare state?
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Read more:
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To hit the 3% target, Sir Keir would have to find an extra £13bn. That’s difficult to find, and especially difficult when the government is reversing on difficult decisions its made on cuts.
For now, the prime minister doesn’t want to answer the question about the choices he’s perhaps going to make. But if he is really clear-eyed about the security threat and what is required for the UK to become ready for war, it is question he is going to have to answer.
Britain prepares for war (just don’t ask about the cost)
The report said the U.K. should be focused on responding to common threats facing European allies. It recommended the UK expand its submarine program, which should create 30,000 new jobs. The Royal Navy should be developed as a “hybrid” force, blending drones with warships, submarines and aircraft. Starmer has committed to boosting the budget to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2027.
The report said the U.K. should be focused on responding to common threats facing European allies, described as a “NATO-first approach.”
The weight of those words was somewhat undercut by Starmer’s tepid language on defense spending. While the PM has committed to boosting the budget to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2027, the “ambition” of raising that to 3 percent remains “subject to economic and fiscal conditions.”
The equivocation has drawn concern among MPs and in defense circles that the U.K. lacks a plan to meet the most serious challenge the SDR flagged: The threat posed by Russian aggression.
As the report spelled out: “State conflict has returned to Europe, with Russia demonstrating its willingness to use military force, inflict harm on civilians, and threaten the use of nuclear weapons to achieve its goals.”
‘Mobilizing the nation’
Starmer visited the Govan shipyard in Glasgow as he prepared for the SDR to land, telling journalists that his aim was to bring “unity of purpose to the whole of the United Kingdom” and to “mobilize the nation in a common cause.”
UK prepares for war: How much will it cost?
Review calls for ‘war-fighting readiness’ in face of new threats, but funding for military expansion remains in doubt. Review called for “fundamental changes” to the armed forces, including “moving to war-fighting”, re-centring a “NATO first” first’ and “accelerating innovation” UK ammunitions spending – just one component of overall military spending – is expected to hit 6 billion pounds ($8.1bn) over the current parliamentary term, which ends in 2029. There are also plans to build up to 12 new attack submarines by the late 2030s as part of the AUKUS military alliance with Australia and the United States – equivalent to a new submarine every 18 months. The review, the UK’s first since 2021, was led by former NATO Secretary-General George Robertson. Among the 62 recommendations in the SDR, all have been accepted by the government. The SDR described Russia as an “immediate and pressing” threat, and referred to China as a ‘sophisticated and persistent challenge’
The United Kingdom has announced a major investment in defence in response to a “new era of threats” driven by “growing Russian aggression”.
The UK’s Strategic Defence Review (SDR), unveiled on Monday, includes new investments in nuclear warheads, a fleet of new submarines and new munitions factories. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the SDR would bring the country to “war-fighting readiness”.
“The threat we now face is more serious, more immediate and more unpredictable than at any time since the Cold War,” Starmer said as he delivered the review in Glasgow, Scotland.
The SDR described Russia as an “immediate and pressing” threat, and referred to China as a “sophisticated and persistent challenge”.
European nations have rushed to strengthen their armed forces in recent months, following Trump’s repeated demands that Europe must shoulder more responsibility for its security.
What are the key features of the UK’s Strategic Defence Review?
The defence review, the UK’s first since 2021, was led by former NATO Secretary-General George Robertson. Among the 62 recommendations in the SDR, all have been accepted by the government.
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Starmer said the measures recommended in the review would bring “fundamental changes” to the armed forces, including “moving to war-fighting readiness”, re-centring a “NATO first” defence posture and accelerating innovation.
“Every part of society, every citizen of this country, has a role to play because we have to recognise that things have changed in the world of today,” he said. “The front line, if you like, is here.”
Boosting weapons production and stockpiles
Based on the recommendations in the review, the government said it would boost stockpiles and weapons production capacity, which could be scaled up if needed.
A total of 1.5 billion pounds ($2bn) will be dedicated to building “at least six munitions and energetics factories”, with plans to produce 7,000 long-range weapons.
In turn, UK ammunitions spending – just one component of overall military spending – is expected to hit 6 billion pounds ($8.1bn) over the current parliamentary term, which ends in 2029.
New attack submarines
There are also plans to build up to 12 new attack submarines by the late 2030s as part of the AUKUS military alliance with Australia and the United States – equivalent to a new submarine every 18 months.
This accounts for nearly half the projected spending outlined in the SDR.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) also said it would invest 15 billion pounds ($20.3bn) in its own nuclear warhead programme.
New F-35 fighter jets
The SDR recommended procuring new F-35 fighter jets and the Global Combat Aircraft Programme, a sixth-generation fighter produced jointly with Japan and Italy.
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Use of technology to improve the army
The target size of the army will remain roughly the same, but the SDR recommended a slight increase in the number of regular soldiers “if funding allows”. There are currently about 71,000.
Instead of a dramatic increase in troop numbers, the SDR recommends using technology, drones and software to “increase lethality tenfold”.
To do this, the MoD plans to deliver a 1 billion pound ($1.35bn) “digital targeting web”, an AI-driven software tool designed to collect battlefield data and use it to enable faster decision making.
Investment in defence companies
More details about the SDR will be provided in the upcoming Defence Industrial Strategy, expected in the coming weeks, but UK defence companies will be among the big winners from the new SDR.
Though supposedly a 10-year review, past SDRs suggest its shelf life might be more limited.
The last SDR was published in 2021 and recommended “a strategic pivot towards the Indo-Pacific region to counter China’s influence and deepen ties with allies like Australia, India, and Japan”, in line with strategic priorities of the time.
This SDR, undertaken in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has re-oriented the UK’s geographical priorities. In the coming years, those could change again.
Can the UK afford this defence expansion?
Proposals to prepare the UK’s armed forces to be “battle ready” will cost at least 67.6 billion pounds ($91.4bn) through to the late 2030s, according to costings and estimates provided in the SDR.
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Before Monday’s announcement, the government had already pledged to increase spending on defence from 2.3 percent currently to 2.5 percent by 2027, an increase of about 6 billion pounds ($8.1bn) per year. This would raise 60 billion pounds over 10 years – a bit shy of the cost projected by the SDR.
The government has said it will cut overseas aid to fund that 0.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) rise in defence spending.
Critics say this will not be enough and that the measures outlined by the SDR will cost more like 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
James Cartlidge, the shadow defence secretary, said the “authors of the strategic defence review were clear that 3 percent [not 2.5 percent] of GDP ‘established the affordability’ of the plan.”
In February, the Labour government said it had “an ambition” to raise defence spending to 3 percent in the next parliament (after 2029), but Cartlidge said: “That commitment cannot be guaranteed ahead of the next general election.”
According to researchers at the Institute for Fiscal Studies – an independent, London-based research organisation – raising defence spending to 3 percent of GDP by 2030 would require an extra 17 billion pounds between now and then, which the government has not yet accounted for.
But the UK could be required to raise spending even more than this. In discussions taking place in advance of the NATO summit in The Hague later this month, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is understood to be pushing for member nations to commit 5 percent of GDP towards defence-related spending.
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Rutte has proposed that NATO’s 32 members commit to spending 3.5 percent on hard defence and 1.5 percent on broader security, such as cyber, by 2032.
“At this Ministerial, we are going to take a huge leap forward,” Rutte stated before a meeting of defence ministers in Brussels on Thursday this week. “We will strengthen our deterrence and defence by agreeing ambitious new capability targets.” He specified air and missile defence, long-range weapons, logistics, and large land manoeuvre formations as among the alliance’s top priorities, according to a briefing note from NATO on Wednesday.
“We need more resources, forces and capabilities so that we are prepared to face any threat, and to implement our collective defence plans in full,” he said, adding: “We will need significantly higher defence spending. That underpins everything.”
Will taxes have to rise in the UK?
On Monday, Starmer refused to rule out another raid on the aid budget to fund higher military spending, and signalled that he was hopeful the extra investment could be supported by a growing the economy and generating more taxes to pay for defence.
After the SDR’s announcement, Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, warned that the prime minister will need to make “really quite chunky tax increases” to pay for the plans.
Alternatively, increased defence spending could be siphoned off from other parts of the budget – for instance, through reduced state spending on areas like transport and energy infrastructure.