USF wins AAC title in EA Sports College Football 26 prediction
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Diverging Reports Breakdown
We Simulated CFB 26 100 Times To Create The Ultimate College Football Betting Guide
The ultimate college football betting guide based on our 100 simulations of CFB 26. Penn State made the playoffs the most, followed by Miami and Texas Tech. Clemson and Georgia are -200 and -250, respectively. Ohio State is -400, their tough schedule led them to the playoffs only 48 of 100 times. Other teams that made the final four a good handful of times include Texas (23), Duke (15), Ohio State (14), Texas A&M (10), and Notre Dame (10). All other teams made theFinal Four less than 10 times. Clemson is +4000 to win the Championship Game and +700 to win it. The other team that made it 22 times was Miami. They are -250 to make the playoffs and +400 to win. The team to make it the second most, with 79 out of 100, is Miami. This does have some value as they’re +170. This further supports our parlay of Penn State, Oregon, Georgia, and Clemson at +270.
We Simulated CFB 26 100 Times To Create The Ultimate College Football Betting Guide
College Football Playoffs
To start the ultimate college football betting guide based on our 100 simulations of CFB 26, let’s take a look at who made the playoffs the most. If you are new to college football sports betting, you can make betting picks on which teams make the playoffs.
In the 100 simulations, the team that made the playoffs the most is Penn State, making it 83 of 100 times. Given that Penn State is -350 to make the playoffs, there isn’t a lot of value there. The team to make the playoffs the second most, with 79 out of 100 times, is Miami. This does have some value as they’re +170. This is the first of our college football betting picks on our college football betting guide.
Next, we have Texas Tech, which made it 77 times, and Oregon, which made it 76. Oregon is -270, so it may not hold much value. However, Texas Tech is a juicy +450. Whether it’s just the game developers’ favoritism or the college football schedule for them, the game likes Texas Tech much more than the books do.
Other teams reaching the playoffs over half the time include Clemson (74), Georgia (69), Boise State (57), and Duke (54). Clemson and Georgia are -200 and -250. However, I like pairing them with Penn State and Oregon in a parlay that pays +270 if all four make the playoffs. Boise State has good college football sports betting value at +190. Finally, Duke is worth a small sprinkle at +1400. At least on paper, they have a team that could compete.
If you’re wondering about the favorite Ohio State (-400), their tough schedule led them to the playoffs only 48 of 100 times. Texas (-330) made it only 39 of the times.
College Football Betting Guide Picks Based On 100 Simulations of CFB 26:
*Miami to make the playoffs (+170)
*Boise State to make the playoffs (+190)
*Parlay: Penn State, Oregon, Georgia, Clemson to Make Playoffs (+270)
Final Four + Championship Game Data
Maybe you don’t want to make your college football sports betting picks until the betting guide has shown you how many times these teams actually advanced in the playoffs. The team that advanced the most to the final four is the Penn State Nittany Lions, advancing 42 times out of 100.
Oregon was second with 41, followed by Miami (38), Georgia (36), Texas Tech (31), and Clemson (28). This further supports our parlay of Penn State, Oregon, Georgia, and Clemson to make the playoffs at +270.
Other teams making the final four a good handful of times include Texas (23), Duke (18), Michigan (15), Ohio State (14), Texas A&M (14), and Notre Dame (10). All other teams made the final four less than 10 times. If you think both Ohio State and Penn State can make the playoffs, you can add Ohio State into the playoff parlay to make it +362.
If you want to break it down even further, it is a bit surprising to see which teams make the Championship Game the most. Three teams made it 22 of 100 times. One of those teams was Penn State, which is -350 to make the playoffs and +700 to win the Championship. Georgia also made it 22 times. They are -250 to make the playoffs and +700 to win it. The other team that made the Championship game 22 times was Miami. They are +170 to make the playoffs and +4000 to win the Championship Game.
Can their new defensive coordinator and quarterback, Carson Beck, take them that far? Other teams that made the Championship game more than ten times each include Oregon (20), Clemson (17), Texas (16), Texas Tech (16), and Duke (11).
College Football Betting Guide Picks Based On 100 Simulations of CFB 26:
Parlay: Penn State, Oregon, Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State to Make Playoffs (+362)
National College Football Champion Picks
What’s an ultimate college football betting guide without some sports betting picks predicting the National Champion? Obviously, since we simulated CFB 26 100 times, we had 100 National Champions. Here’s what we learned on what we should be betting on for college football.
One of the most interesting things that jumped out is that apparently, EA Sports CFB doesn’t think too highly of Ohio State. Even though most books have them as a favorite to win the National Championship at +500, they didn’t win it once in the 100 CFB 26 simulations.
Notre Dame (+1200) and Alabama (+1100) each won a National Championship. More importantly, that means 99 times they didn’t. Teams with two National Championship wins in 100 simulations include Oklahoma, Florida, and Iowa State.
USC, Texas A&M, and Indiana each had three. Michigan stood alone with four National Championship wins. Texas and Texas Tech each had five, while Duke stood alone with six. Then it jumps to nine wins with Clemson (+1000). Cade Klubnik won 9% of the simulations on CFB 26. Can he do it for real?
Now we get into the four teams that had double-digit wins. Winning 10% of the National Championships, Georgia (+700) and Oregon (+1200) each won 10 of them. They were topped by only two teams. If you were to bet the top four here, you’d still come out ahead in money.
The surprise isn’t that Penn State won the National Championship 17 times, or 17% of the simulations. They’ve got the third-best odds with Georgia at +700. The surprise is that the other team that won 17% of the simulations is +4000. That’s right, Miami.
Apparently, on paper, the algorithms of CFB 26 simulations love Carson Beck in Miami as well as the should-be improved defense. It would be a crazy college football sports betting pick to hit, and so we have to include it in our betting guide!
College Football Betting Guide Picks Based On 100 Simulations of CFB 26:
Sprinkle a little on the top four teams. Penn State (+700), Miami (+4000), Oregon (+1200), and Georgia (+700).
College Football Heisman Candidates
Here’s where the game may have gotten a little far-fetched. The Heisman trophy is often won by a quarterback, though we know not always. We just saw Travis Hunter win it as a CB/WR. Whether he should have or not is a different subject that we won’t get into.
Before we dive into the top college football sports betting picks for the Heisman, let’s expand the betting guide to look at who finished as a top-five candidate the most. Out of 100 CFB 26 simulations, only 12 players finished as top-five Heisman candidates more than 10 times out of the 100 simulations.
Of those 12 players, Clemson wide receiver Tyler Brown (13 times), Oregon running back Makhi Hughes (18), and USF quarterback Byrum Brown (33) have odds so long that most books don’t even offer them.
Finishing as a top-five Heisman Candidate 10 times, quarterback Gunner Stockton, is +2500 to win the Heisman. Alabama wide receiver Ryan Williams (+3500) and USC Quarterback Jayden Maiava (+7000) reached the top-five fifteen different times.
SMU Quarterback Kevin Jennings (+5000) was a top-five candidate 19 times. Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar (+6000) was in the voting 23 times. That brings us to the top four players to be considered Heisman candidates according to the 100 CFB 26 simulations.
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin (+2000) was considered 33 times while his wide receiver, Jeremiah Smith (+1100), was considered 50 times. Georgia wide receiver Zachariah Branch (+20000) was considered a Heisman candidate 40 times. Georgia isn’t known for having Heisman candidates, especially on offense.
College Football Heisman Winner
That brings us to the guy who was in the top-five Heisman candidates the most, Cade Klubnik. The Clemson quarterback was up for a Heisman 59 different times and is currently the third favorite on the books at +950. So, who won it the most?
The same guy who was in the top five the most, Cade Klubnik, won it most often as well. He won 28 times out of 100 CFB 26 simulations. The only two closest to him, as well as the only two that won over double-digit times, were wide receivers Zachariah Branch and Jeremiah Smith.
Given that this is a quarterback-driven award most of the time, recently anyways, it’s hard not to lay a little on Cade Klubnik.
College Football Betting Guide Picks Based On 100 Simulations of CFB 26:
Heisman Winner: Cade Klubnik (+950)
Conference Championship Winners Sports Betting Picks
AAC, ACC, Big 12, and Big 10 Winners
What kind of ultimate college football betting guide would this be without some conference championship picks to bet? In our 100 CFB 26 simulations, we learned who has a chance of winning each conference. Let’s see where the college football sports betting values are for conference winners.
Let’s start with the AAC. Out of 100 simulations, Tulane won almost half of the time, with 46 conference championship wins. USF followed them with 22. Tulane is currently the favorite to win the conference, but at +300. They’re followed by Navy at +380, who won 17 of the simulations.
The ACC wasn’t as clear-cut, but it still had a team that won more than the others. Miami, the team that the developers must love, won the ACC 40 times. They’re currently +380 to win the division. Clemson, which is the favorite to win the division at +105, won 29 times. Winning 22 times in 100 simulations was Duke. Duke is currently +2500 to win the conference, and it just doesn’t seem likely.
The Big 12 had scattered results, with only one team having more than 12 wins. That team was Texas Tech, which is currently +600 to win the division. The current favorites to win the division are Kansas State and Arizona State at +550. K-State won 11 times while Arizona State only won 6. The only other team with double-digit conference championships in 100 simulations was Baylor (+700) with 10.
The Big 10 had four teams with double-digit conference championship wins in the 100 CFB 26 simulations. However, which are worth our college football betting picks? Penn State, the team that had some of the most National Championships, won its division the most times with 32. They’re currently +240 to win the division. Oregon won 27 times. They’re currently +320. Ohio State is the current favorite at +190 and won 16 times, while Michigan (+800) won 10 times.
CUSA, MAC, MWC, SEC, & SUn Belt Winners
The current favorite to win the Conference USA championship is Liberty at +125. The game simulations agreed and had them winning the conference 45 times. The next closest was FIU (+1600) with 19 wins.
The MAC was a very close race. Buffalo (+400) ended up winning it the most with 39 wins. However, conference favorite Toledo (+230) wasn’t far behind with 35 wins. Miami-Ohio was the only other team with double-digit conference championship wins and is currently +700.
Boise State is the favorite to win the Mountain West at -140 and rightly so. They’ve done a good job controlling that conference for a while now. They won the conference more than any other team won their conference, with 79 of 100 wins. The next closest was UNLV (+600) with 15.
The SEC consisted of two teams that won it most. Georgia led the way with 33 wins out of 100 simulations. They’re currently +330 to win the conference. Texas won 21 times and is the conference favorite at +270.
Finally, the Sun Belt was another close race, with James Madison winning 39 of 100 simulations. They’re the current favorite at +290. Coming in with 33 wins, Southern Mississippi is +1400 to win the conference.
College Football Betting Guide Picks Based On 100 Simulations of CFB 26:
AAC Winner: Tulane (+300)
C-USA Winner: Liberty (+125)
MWC: Boise State (-140)
SEC: Georgia (+330)
Sun Belt: James Madison (+290)
Parlay: James Madison, Boise State, Liberty, Tulane to all win their conferences (+5917)
EA Sports College Football 26 review: We simulated the 2025 season. Here’s what happened
EA Sports College Football 26 predicts Georgia will win the 2025 national championship. USF quarterback Byrum Brown is projected to win the Heisman Trophy in the simulation. The new video game opened its early-access window at noon on July 7 for those who pre-ordered the deluxe edition or MVP Bundle with Madden NFL 26. We used the default rosters, settings and sliders. And of course, we did not play any games. All contests were simulated by three points. Four were also blowouts of 20 points or more, though five came down to one possession. We hopped into dynasty mode and simulated the 2025 season. It is tough to beat a team twice in the same season in the CFP. It marked their third triumph of the 2020s. They began the fall 6-0 before suffering their first loss to Ole Miss in mid-October. Following a subsequent stumble against Mississippi State in early November, their final defeat came in the SEC championship game against LSU. Georgia obtained a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
USF quarterback Byrum Brown is projected to win the Heisman Trophy in the simulation.
Here’s how the upcoming college football season is going to play out.
An SEC team will win the national championship. A Group of Five quarterback will snatch the Heisman Trophy. A service academy will appear in the CFP. And a Big Ten blueblood will vault to the top of the recruiting rankings.
At least according to EA Sports College Football 26.
The new video game opened its early-access window at noon on July 7 for those who pre-ordered the deluxe edition or MVP Bundle with Madden NFL 26. We hopped into dynasty mode and simulated the 2025 season.
Need a break? Play the USA TODAY Daily Crossword Puzzle.
We used the default rosters, settings and sliders. We kept injuries on. And of course, we did not play any games. All contests were simulated.
Here are the results:
2025 national champions: Georgia Bulldogs
Surprise!
OK, maybe not.
Georgia, a familiar powerhouse, captured the national championship. It marked their third triumph of the 2020s.
The Bulldogs finished with a 13-3 record. They began the fall 6-0 before suffering their first loss to Ole Miss in mid-October. Following a subsequent stumble against Mississippi State in early November, their final defeat came in the SEC championship game against LSU.
As the fourth seed, Georgia obtained a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. It dispatched No. 5 Miami, No. 8 Texas and No. 2 LSU on the way to the throne.
Quarterback Gunner Stockton compiled 5,162 passing yards, which paced the country. He fired 42 touchdowns while running backs Nate Frazier (15 TDs) and Josh McCray (14 TDs) supported him on the ground.
Oh, and Zachariah Branch earned a trip to New York as a Heisman finalist. He hauled in 128 receptions for 1,887 yards and 13 touchdowns.
College Football Playoff bracket and results
Seeding
Illinois (12-1 entering CFP, won Big Ten title) LSU (11-2, won SEC title) Texas Tech (11-2, won Big 12 title) Georgia (10-3) Miami (10-3) BYU (10-3) Navy (12-1, won AAC title) Texas (9-3) Louisville (9-3) Tulane (11-2) Florida (9-3) Duke (10-3, won ACC title)
First round
Miami beat Duke 41-21
Texas beat Louisville 34-31
Florida beat BYU 38-20
Tulane beat Navy 17-14
Quarterfinals
Georgia beat Miami 32-7
Texas beat Illinois 37-12
Florida beat Texas Tech 34-31
LSU beat Tulane 36-10
Semifinals
Georgia beat Texas 44-41
LSU beat Florida 35-28
Finals
Georgia beat LSU 49-17
College Football 26 season simulation: My takeaways
Sometimes, old cliches ring true. It is tough to beat a team twice in the same season in College Football 26.
Just ask Navy, Duke and LSU.
Our simulation featured several revenge matchups in the CFP.
In the AAC championship game, Navy handled Tulane, then lost a rematch in the first round. Duke toppled Miami for the ACC title, then dropped in the first round. And after losing to LSU in the SEC title game, Georgia got the Tigers back in the College Football Playoff finals.
The bracket was also split between epic battles and snoozers. Of the 11 contests, five came down to one possession. Four were decided by three points.
But five were also blowouts of 20 points or more.
Heisman winner: Byrum Brown, USF
Not Arch Manning. Not Jeremiah Smith or Ryan Williams, though both were finalists.
Yes, South Florida quarterback Byrum Brown claimed the Heisman Trophy, following in the footsteps of Travis Hunter, Tim Tebow, Barry Sanders and other legends. He edged Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar, Branch, Smith and Williams in the virtual voting.
As a senior, Brown charged the Bulls into the top 25. He completed 65% of his throws for 4,947 yards and 38 touchdowns with only seven interceptions. He also rushed for 727 yards and 17 scores.
Brown holds an 83 overall rating. He ranks as the third-best player on USF and the 40th-best quarterback in the country.
Hey, Heisman winners have come out of nowhere before.
Other college football award winners
Maxwell Award: Byrum Brown, USF
Byrum Brown, USF Walter Camp Award: Byrum Brown, USF
Byrum Brown, USF Bear Bryant Coach of the Year Award: Brian Newberry, Navy
Brian Newberry, Navy Davey O’Brien Award: Byrum Brown, USF
Byrum Brown, USF Chuck Bednarik Award: Anthony Hill Jr., Texas
Anthony Hill Jr., Texas Bronko Nagurski Trophy: Anthony Hill Jr., Texas
Anthony Hill Jr., Texas Jim Thorpe Award: Xavier Scott, Illinois
Xavier Scott, Illinois Doak Walker Award: Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame
Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame Fred Biletnikoff Award: Ryan Williams, Alabama
Ryan Williams, Alabama Lombardi Award: Eddrick Houston, Ohio State
Eddrick Houston, Ohio State Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award: Byrum Brown, USF
Byrum Brown, USF Defensive End of the Year: Mikhail Kamara, Indiana
Mikhail Kamara, Indiana Outland Trophy: Olaivavega Ioane, Penn State
Olaivavega Ioane, Penn State John Mackey Award: Tanner Arkin, Illinois
Tanner Arkin, Illinois Broyles Award: P.J. Volker, Navy
P.J. Volker, Navy Dick Butkus Award: Anthony Hill Jr., Texas
Anthony Hill Jr., Texas Rimington Trophy: Brady Small, Army
Brady Small, Army Lou Groza Award: Trey Smack, Florida
Trey Smack, Florida Ray Guy Award: Joshua Huiet, Kennesaw State
Joshua Huiet, Kennesaw State Returner of the Year: Jimmy Calloway, Tulane
First-team All-Americans
QB: Byrum Brown, USF
HB: Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame
HB: Isaac Brown, Louisville
WR: Ryan Williams, Alabama
WR: Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State
WR: Zachariah Branch, Georgia
TE: Tanner Arkin, Illinois
LT: Monroe Freeling, Georgia
LG: Olaivavega Ioane, Penn State
C: Brady Small, Army
RG: Walker Parks, Clemson
RT: Francis Mauigoa, Miami
LE: Mikhail Kamara, Indiana
RE: Colin Simmons, Texas
DT: Eddrick Houston, Ohio State
DT: Darrell Jackson Jr., Florida State
SAM: Leon Lowery Jr., Illinois
MIKE: Anthony Hill Jr., Texas
WILL: Wesley Bissainthe, Miami
CB: Xavier Scott, Illinois
CB: Elijah Palmer, Hawai’i
FS: A.J. Haulcy, LSU
SS: Rocket Rahimi, SMU
K: Trey Smack, Florida
P: Joshua Huiet, Kennesaw State
College Football 26 records
Can you believe this? No national records for an individual game, season or career were broken in our simulation.
College Football 26 recruiting: Which team had best class?
Again, not necessarily a shocker.
Ohio State took home the recruiting crown. It signed a nation-leading six five-star prospects.
Rounding out the top five: Notre Dame, Alabama, Penn State and Michigan.
How will 2025 college football season play out?
Easy question.
Not exactly like this.
EA Sports College Football 26: Top 10 Teams To Use in Dynasty Mode
EA Sports announced that they will be dropping the 2026 addition of their college football game in July. One of the fan favorite modes in the game is Dynasty mode, where you can take over as the coach for any program and build them into a national title contender. These are the ten teams that I think will be the most fun to use in Dynasty mode as you take them from mid-to-low level programs to the top of the college football world. The game will be released in the U.S. and Europe on July 25, 2026, and in the UK and Australia on July 26, 2027. For more information on the game, visit EA Sports’ website and follow them on Twitter at @EASports and @CSAfcoFball. For the rest of the year, follow us on Facebook and Twitter at #EASportsFball and #CollegeFootball26.
These are the ten teams that I think will be the most fun to use in Dynasty mode as you take them from mid-to-low level programs to the top of the college football world.
Top 10 Teams to Use in Dynasty Mode in EA Sports College Football 26
1) Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens
Delaware is making the jump from the FCS level to the FBS level in 2025 and will be joining Conference USA. With the Hens in their first season of FBS football, they will be the most intriguing team to rebuild in College Football 26. Also, their color wave and uniforms should look great in the game.
2) USF Bulls
Not only is USF a Florida school, which gives you an immediate pipeline to some of the best recruits in the country, but they play in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers stadium, which is one of the best venues in the game. You also get to start your dynasty with Byrum Brown at the helm, who is one of the fastest quarterbacks in football.
3) UNLV Rebels
The Rebels will also be a fantastic team to use for your dynasty. Like USF, their starting quarterback, Alex Orji, is one of the fastest in the game. Also like USF, the Rebels play in Allegiant Stadium, which is an elite venue. Not to mention, the Rebels are close enough to California to recruit some big-time talent.
4) UNC Tar Heels
UNC gives you the opportunity to take the helm of the Tar Heels as Bill Belichick and turn them from a mid-level program to a college football powerhouse. While I doubt Belichick will actually be in the game, the base UNC coach will have similar stats, and that should expedite your rebuild.
5) Auburn Tigers
If you want to launch yourself straight into a power conference, I think Auburn is one of the best teams to do so with. Auburn has a rich program history, and you can bring them back to the top of the SEC and all of college football. With an SEC program, most of your school grades will start off high, which is a bonus for recruiting.
6) Nebraska Cornhuskers
Much like Auburn, Nebraska is a program that is rich in history but hasn’t been elite in a very long time. Launching into Dynasty mode would give you some elite talent off the bat, like quarterback Dylan Raiola, and you would get the opportunity to build Nebraska back to what it once was.
7) Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State will already have one of the best rosters in the game, and if you’re lucky, you could get Avery Johnson at quarterback for your first two seasons. While the Wildcats are talented, they’ve never one a national title, and you could deliver them their first.
8) Boise State Broncos
With Boise State losing Ashton Jeanty, they are not going to be nearly as good as they were last year. The Broncos will be a fun rebuild challenge, and you get to play on the blue turf.
9) FIU Panthers
The FIU Panthers not only present a challenge as a rebuild, but they also now play at Pitbull stadium (named after Mr. 305/Mr. Worldwide himself). It’ll be a lot of fun to take over the Panthers and bring them from one of the worst teams in the state of Florida to the best.
KEEP READING: Predicting the Best Option Playbooks in EA Sports College Football 26
10) Missouri State
Like Delaware, Missouri State is entering its first season ever as an FBS program. While I don’t think they’ll be as fun to rebuild as the Hens, turning them into a Dynasty will still be one of the most challenging things you can do in the entire game.
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Bleacher Report’s 2024-25 Bowl Projections Entering Week 8
The five highest-ranked conference champions will automatically earn a CFP berth. The top four teams from that group will be placed in the quarterfinals. While this quartet is assumed to be from the Power 4 (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC), that’s not guaranteed. The nation’s fifth-ranked team is headed to play No. 1.
5 of 5
Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images Riley Leonard
First-Round Byes
The five highest-ranked conference champions (*) will automatically earn a CFP berth, and the four highest-ranked of that group will be placed in the quarterfinals. While this quartet is assumed to be from the Power 4 (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC), that’s not guaranteed.
No. 1: Texas*, SEC champion in Sugar Bowl
No. 2: Oregon*, Big Ten champion in Rose Bowl
No. 3: Miami*, ACC champion in Peach Bowl
No. 4: Iowa State*, Big 12 champion in Fiesta Bowl
First-Round Games
No. 12 LSU at No. 5 Ohio State (winner to Fiesta Bowl)
No. 11 Boise State* (MWC champion) at No. 6 Georgia (winner to Peach Bowl)
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Clemson (winner to Rose Bowl)
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Penn State (winner to Sugar Bowl)
Game to Watch, Part 1: Georgia at Texas
The nation’s fifth-ranked team is headed to play No. 1. Yeah, I think we’ll all be tracking this one. Georgia already has a loss in SEC action, so the Dawgs need a win to stay alive in the conference race. However, they’ll be battling a Longhorns defense that has yielded just 38 points in six games. Texas can cement itself as the SEC favorite with a victory.
Game to Watch, Part 2: Alabama at Tennessee
2024 Week 5 Preview: South Florida Bulls @ Tulane Green Wave
Tulane and South Florida were two of the five AAC teams that posted a winning record in 2023. The Green Wave and Bulls still have their eye on contending for the AAC Championship Game. South Florida will look to get its best from dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown, who is slated to start after exiting the Miami (FL) game twice with apparent injuries. The Bulls’ defense did an exceptional job putting both AP Top 10 opponents into tough situations early on. But as the games progressed, the Top 10 teams’ depth showed as Alabama and Miami ( FL) boatraced South Florida in the final minutes of action. Tulane isn’t exactly a Top 10 caliber opponent, but the Green Wave are a significant step up in difficult than the teams South Florida beat in non-conference play (FCS Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss). The Bulls were remarkably defensively at their best in the 2023 Boca Raton Bowl, limiting Alabama to 17 points and limiting Syracuse to 17.
Time and date: Saturday, September 21 at 12:00 p.m. ET
Saturday, September 21 at 12:00 p.m. ET Network: ESPNU
ESPNU Location: Yulman Stadium — New Orleans, LA
Yulman Stadium — New Orleans, LA Spread: Tulane (-6.5)
Tulane (-6.5) Over/under: 62.5
62.5 All-time series: Tulane leads, 3-1
Tulane leads, 3-1 Last meeting: Tulane 45, South Florida 31 — October 15, 2022
Tulane 45, South Florida 31 — October 15, 2022 Current streak: Tulane, 3 (2018-22)
Setting the scene
Saturday morning in New Orleans will feature a sea of dark green, among the home Tulane fans and the visiting South Florida faithful.
Tulane and South Florida were two of the five AAC teams that posted a winning record in 2023. While both sit at 2-2 after facing challenging non-conference schedules, the Green Wave and Bulls still have their eye on contending for the AAC Championship Game. Saturday presents a new season and the first step in doing so, serving as the AAC opener for Tulane and South Florida alike.
There should be no shortage of offenses with stars like Makhi Hughes and Byrum Brown taking the field in one of the most intriguing AAC matchups of 2024.
South Florida Bulls outlook
South Florida (2-2, 0-0 AAC) has a 26-point loss to Alabama and a 35-point loss to Miami (FL) on its résumé.
However, the box scores don’t quite do the Bulls justice in those games. They remained within one score of the Crimson Tide until the final six minutes of action and within one score of the Hurricanes through the midway point of the third quarter.
South Florida knows how to start challenging games, and the Bulls’ defense did an exceptional job putting both AP Top 10 opponents into tough situations early on — limiting the run and forcing turnovers to give the offense opportunities. However, as the games progressed, the Top 10 teams’ depth showed as Alabama and Miami (FL) boatraced South Florida in the final minutes of action, handing the Bulls a pair of lopsided non-conference losses.
Tulane isn’t exactly a Top 10 caliber opponent, but the Green Wave are a significant step up in difficult than the teams South Florida beat in non-conference play (FCS Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss). In order to start 1-0 in AAC play, South Florida will look to get its best from dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown, who is slated to start after exiting the Miami (FL) game twice with apparent injuries.
Brown already showcased his talents against the best of the best, throwing for 254 yards on the Hurricanes and rushing for 108 on the Crimson Tide. He’s as slippery as any quarterback in the country as his ability to escape pressure is on an elite level. Brown has a willingness to extend plays with his feet and although that sometimes results in sacks (he’s taken 11 this year), he often produces wizardry for the Bulls’ offense. He hasn’t thrown a single interception in 114 attempts and he ranks sixth among FBS quarterbacks in rushing, providing South Florida essential components to thrive on that side of the ball.
Brown is the leading rusher, but he’s well supported on the ground with a trio of highly-utilized tailbacks. Kelley Joiner, Nay’Quan Wright, and Ta’Ron Keith all play major roles in a rushing offense which ranks 25th nationally, picking up 217 yards on a 5.0 average. The sixth-year senior Joiner is on pace for his best season to date, picking up 7.0 yards per carry while leading the team with four rushing touchdowns on the season.
The receiving corps isn’t the balanced stable that the running back room is. Instead, it’s heavily dominated by fellow sixth-year senior Sean Atkins who is eight receptions away from tying the program career record. Atkins corralled double the amount of catches as any Bull in the first four games and with 289 yards, his yardage is more than double anybody else on the roster. He’ll be the target Tulane’s secondary keys on the most after totaling 11 receptions for 125 yards a week ago vs. Miami (FL).
South Florida will go as far as its defense allows it to, and that was the case last year. The Bulls were remarkably defensively at their best in 2023, producing a shutout vs. Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl and limiting Alabama to 17. But at their worst, they were yielding 56 to UAB and Florida Atlantic in lopsided AAC losses. Establishing an identity is key to starting conference play on the right foot. There were moments of promise early on vs. Alabama and Miami (FL), but those teams scored explosively and at will as the games continued to progress.
In order to sustain the success from the first half of those games, the Bulls need to continue creating havoc in the turnover game. They sport one of the best turnover margins in the FBS at a +6, ranking among the FBS top five in fumble recoveries. With inside linebacker Mac Harris leading the charge with 4.0 tackles for loss, the run defense has also showed signs of promise. But where South Florida seeks the most improvement is in the secondary as it currently allows 279 passing yards per game — 15th-to-last in the FBS.
South Florida plays aggressive and send frequent blitzes, but using more high safety action to prevent explosive plays could be an employable strategy against a Tulane team with a knack for significant pickups.
Tulane Green Wave outlook
Tulane (2-2, 0-0 AAC) desperately needed a bounce-back performance last Saturday after dropping two consecutive games, and dating back to last December, four-straight matchups to FBS competition.
The Green Wave staved off Louisiana on the road, utilizing momentum-swinging touchdowns on defense and special teams to prevail in 41-33 fashion. As that score might suggest, as well as Tulane’s 34-27 loss to Kansas State, this Green Wave team is more offensive-dynamic albeit less defensively-sound than the prior year’s AAC runner-up.
Tulane is able to attack through the air or on the ground in an effective manner, and it showcased both abilities in non-conference play. Against Kansas State, quarterback Darian Mensah aired out deep ball after deep ball en route to a 342-yard barrage on 19 completions. Against Tulane, Mensah was limited to 83 yards, but star running back Makhi Hughes took over by producing a career-high 166-yard outburst. Thus, first-year head coach Jon Sumrall and his offensive staff aren’t afraid to tweak with the gameplan based on the looks the defense provides.
The Louisiana game wasn’t Mensah’s finest outing in his first season as Tulane’s starter, but when called upon, he remained efficient at 11-of-16 with a touchdown and zero interceptions. For a first-time starter, he’s shown incredible maturity in the pocket, completing 60.0 of passes with a difficult throw profile, often targeting receivers deep downfield for significant pickups; However, Mensah won’t be the only quarterback Tulane trots onto the field Saturday, in all likelihood.
Last weekend, the Green Wave implemented a new package that produced desirable results. Backup Ty Thompson was inserted into the game several times as a short-yardage, run-first wildcat quarterback, and this package generated three first downs and a touchdown on seven attempts.
The focal point of the run game remains reigning First Team All-AAC selection Hughes, who surpassed 100 yards in nine of his last 14 performances. Hughes seems to dictate offensive success more than anyone in New Orleans, as Tulane’s point totals are notably higher when he’s reaching the century barrier.
Other skill position players to watch in the offense include Mario Williams, Dontae Fleming, and Yulkeith Brown. Williams was a home run addition from the portal. The former USC and Oklahoma standout is the definition of explosive, producing 312 yards on 18 catches as the AAC’s third-leading receiver. Fleming and Brown — members of the 2023 team — provide strong support with 16 collective receptions for 256 yards. Mensah utilizes plenty of more options at his disposal, including tight end Alex Bauman who caught a pair of long touchdown passes in the Kansas State game and looks to find mismatches in the middle of the field Saturday.
The Tulane defense isn’t exactly on pace to replicate its 24th overall finish in scoring defense from 2023. Right now the unit checks in at 79th with 25.2 points allowed per game after surrendering north of 30 in three-straight outings. Defending the run has been the most pressing issue as large pickups on the ground allowed Kansas State to erase a double-digit deficit and claim a victory in New Orleans.
Outside linebacker Tyler Grubbs is one of the premier run-stoppers on the team looking for an improvement in this regard. Grubbs is first on the Green Wave in tackles (22), tackles for loss (3.0), and sacks (2.0). In addition to starring in those areas, the former all-conference linebacker is also contributing to Tulane’s pick-six movement. Tulane’s defense has only captured four interceptions all year, but three went the other direction for a touchdown, and registering these gamebreaking plays are essential for a defense still working on collecting consistent stops.
Cornerback Rayshawn Pleasant is another one of the pick-six recipients this year, and his 100-yard interception return in Week 1 isn’t his only entry to the highlight reel. He returned the second half kickoff 94 yards for a touchdown last week, proving the potency of Tulane’s special teams unit. Another defensive back to watch on defense is strong safety Bailey Despanie, who compiled a team-leading 18 solo stops in non-conference play to demonstrate his merit as a stellar open-field tackler.
Tackling in space will be key Saturday. Playing a spy and avoiding over-rushing Byrum Brown are other notable focuses for a defense pitted against one of the country’s most slippery quarterbacks.
Prediction
Both of these teams feature high explosive potential on offense, while the defenses remain a work in progress.
Tulane attacks with a dominant run game led by Makhi Hughes and quarterback Darian Mensah isn’t afraid to sling it deep to a veteran receiving corps. When both components of the offense are working, the result is what we saw during the Kansas State game. The only difference is Tulane must limit costly turnovers to maximize the unit’s potential.
South Florida counters with an up-tempo offense spearheaded by quarterback Byrum Brown who makes it all possible. Tackling Brown isn’t an easy task given all of his escape tricks, and if he makes you miss, he’ll make you pay with some downfield shots to open receivers.
South Florida’s run game against Tulane’s run defense will be the primary matchup to watch. The Green Wave struggled in containing Kansas State, and with Brown and a trio of capable running backs on the other side, the Bulls possess the firepower to notch a closely-contested victory Saturday on the road.
Prediction: South Florida 37, Tulane 35
Source: https://www.axios.com/local/tampa-bay/2025/08/01/usf-wins-aac-title-in-ea-sports-cfb-26-prediction