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Diverging Reports Breakdown
At least 24 dead, over 20 children missing from summer camp in ‘catastrophic’ Texas flood
The Guadalupe River rose as much as 26 feet in less than two hours in the dark, predawn morning. The flooding began sometime after 4:00 a.m., when extreme rains of 12 inches an hour hit. The Texas National Guard had rescued or evacuated 237 people, 167 by helicopter, by the evening of July 4. President Donald Trump told state officials “whatever we need, we will have,” Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick said. “Imagine 4 months’ worth of rain falling in a 6-hour window,” meteorologist Matthew Cappucci says. “We don’t need any more drones or helicopters. We don’t need people just showing up,” a sheriff says of search and rescue efforts. “Stay at home with your families, that’s the right thing to do, to stay out of this area,” he adds. “This is a devastating event for our community,” the Kerrville, Texas, police department says on its Facebook page. ‘We are humbled by the outpouring of support we have received,’ it adds.
Officials have recovered at least 24 bodies after rains overwhelmed the Guadalupe River in Texas on Friday, causing it to rise as much as 26 feet in less than two hours in the dark, predawn morning.
Frantic parents were desperate for news about a group of as many as 25 campers who remain missing from Camp Mystic, a Christian girls camp at the river’s edge.
An extensive water rescue and search effort was still underway in central Texas’ Kerr County, Gov. Greg Abbott said at a news conference Friday evening. “Everyone needs to know that this is 24/7.”
Kerr County is located about 90 miles northwest of San Antonio. The area is home to multiple camps, but only campers from Camp Mystic were missing, Abbott said.
By the evening of July 4, the Texas National Guard had rescued or evacuated 237 people, 167 by helicopter, said Maj. Gen. Thomas M. Suelzer, the commander of the guard.
A flood that came with terrifying swiftness
The flooding began sometime after 4:00 a.m., when extreme rains of as much as 12 inches an hour hit, Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick said in a press conference Friday afternoon.
The National Weather Service issued had issued a flood watch for parts of south-central Texas, including Kerr County, on Thursday. It warned that a slow-moving system could potentially bring major storms to the area.
The rain that fell was even more intense.
At 2:03 a.m. the National Weather service issued its fifth warning of the evening, each of which had been more strident than the last.
This one said “This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.”
Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said he had been jogging along the Guadalupe River trail at 3:30 a.m. and saw only light rain and no signs of flooding.
By 5:00 a.m. officials were beginning to get phone calls, and he and the area fire chief went to a local park to survey the scene.
“Within an hour and a half, [the river] had already risen over 25 feet,” Rice said. “Within a matter of minutes it was up to 29 feet.”
Meteorologist Matthew Cappucci explained in a post on X that rainfall in the area totaled over 10 inches, but “annual rainfall for this region is about 28-32 inches.”
“Imagine 4 months’ worth of rain falling in a 6-hour window,” he said.
The stretch of the Guadalupe River near Bergheim, Texas, located about 35 miles north of San Antonio “rose 40 FEET IN 3 HOURS,” he added.
‘We don’t need people just showing up’
In some areas, search and rescue efforts were being hampered by sightseers and those who hoped to help with the effort, officials said.
Sheriff Larry Leitha of Kerr County begged area residents not to “self-deploy” to aid in the search efforts. “We don’t need any more drones or helicopters. We don’t need people just showing up,” he said. “Stay at home with your families, that’s the right thing to do, to stay out of this area.”
President Trump offers support
Patrick told reporters Friday that his office has been in contact with the White House multiple times as flooding rocked the area. President Donald Trump told state officials “whatever we need, we will have,” Patrick said.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, in a post on X, said “President Trump committed ANYTHING Texas needs.”
‘A devastating event for our community’
In a late afternoon Facebook post, the Kerrville, Texas’ police department said “We will continue until all of our citizens are accounted for. This is a devastating event for our community but we are strong together. We are humbled by the outpouring of support and assistance we have received and continue to receive.
“For now, we ask you to please stay off the streets as much as possible and we will provide updates as we are able. Our thoughts are with all who have been impacted by this tragic event in our community,” the department shared.
Kerr County reports ‘catastrophic flooding’
“This is a catastrophic flooding event in Kerr County. We can confirm fatalities but will not release further information until next of kin are notified,” the Kerr County Sheriff’s Office said. “The entire county is an extremely active scene.”
Residents were urged to shelter in place and not attempt to travel. Anyone along creeks, streams and the Guadalupe River should seek higher ground, the sheriff’s office said.
The area was under a flash flood warning and between 5 and 11 inches of rain had already fallen by about 9 a.m., the National Weather Service in Austin and San Antonio said. Another 1 to 2 inches could fall before the rain threat dissipates later in the day, the weather service said.
“This is a very dangerous and life-threatening flood event along the Guadalupe River! Move to higher ground!” the weather service there said.
Earlier in the morning, the Guadalupe River at Hunt in western Kerr County had already reached the second-highest level on record at over 29 feet, surpassing levels of the 1987 Guadalupe River Flood at that spot, the weather service in Austin and San Antonio said. The 1987 flood killed 10 teenagers on a church camp bus and van on July 17 near Comfort, Texas.
In San Angelo, Texas, about 150 miles from Kerrville in the central part of the state, the weather service shared a photo of a flooded-out intersection with water reaching the level of road signs. The weather service office in San Angelo said it had received multiple reports of flooded roads and homes in Tom Green County, calling the conditions “life-threatening.”
Heavy rain, flooding remains in the forecast
West-central Texas will continue to see flooding into the weekend, the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center said on the afternoon of July 4.
A weather system across parts of Texas has “dropped several inches of rainfall across the region from Thursday night and this afternoon,” the prediction center said. “Saturated soils and river flooding make this area sensitive to more rainfall.”
“The forecast calls for locally heavy rainfall to persist into tomorrow (Saturday July 5).” A flood watch remained in effect through late in the day on July 4 for much of the region.
The weather service in San Antonio warned that “pockets of heavy rain are still possible and may result in flooding of low-lying areas, rivers/creeks, and low water crossings. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible across the flood watch area through the period. Can’t rule out up to 5 inches of rainfall over portions of the Hill Country through the flood watch period.”
Was this flooding a surprise?
The National Weather Service had placed Kerr County and other counties in the region under a flood watch ahead of the flooding on July 3, but Kelly said the extent of the flooding was a surprise.
“No one knew this kind of flood was coming,” he said, adding that Kerr County doesn’t have a warning system that could have alerted residents the night of July 3.
“We deal with floods on a regular basis,” he said. “We had no reason to believe this was going to be anything like what’s happened here.”
Mandatory evacuations along Guadalupe River
Officials in Comfort, Texas, issued mandatory evacuations for residents along the rapidly rising river, according to a post at about 8 a.m. local time.
“We regret to inform everyone that the flood situation in Comfort is not improving,” the Comfort Volunteer Fire Department said in an update at 11 a.m. “We have sounded the flood sirens and urge all residents in low-lying areas of town to evacuate immediately.”
Residents were instructed to bring necessary documents, medications, clothing and important valuables with them as they escape to higher ground.
Police and firefighters in Kerrville were helping residents evacuate, with a reunification center set up at a local Walmart and a shelter at a church.
Contributing: Reuters
(This story was updated to include video.)
Timeline raises questions over how Texas officials handled warnings before the deadly July 4 flood
Officials in Texas are facing mounting questions about whether they did enough to get people out of harm’s way. More than 160 people are still believed to be missing in Texas days after flash floods killed over 100 people during the July Fourth weekend. The Associated Press has assembled an approximate timeline of the 48 hours before, during and after the deadly flash flood, beginning with the activation of the state’s emergency response resources on July 2. On the same day, Texas inspectors signed off on Camp Mystic’s emergency planning, records obtained by the AP show. “It hit. It hit hard. It happened very quickly over a very short amount of time,” said the city manager of Kerrville, Texas, who was first notified about the situation. ‘This is not like a tornado where you can have a siren. This is notlike a hurricane where you’re planning weeks in advance,’ the city’s mayor said. � ‘It is up to the local counties and mayors under the law to evacuate if they feel the need’
More than 160 people are still believed to be missing in Texas days after flash floods killed over 100 people during the July Fourth weekend, the state’s governor said Tuesday. In the days since the devastation, state, federal and Kerr County officials have deflected pointed questions about preparations and warnings.
The Associated Press has assembled an approximate timeline of the 48 hours before, during and after the deadly flash flood, beginning with the activation of the state’s emergency response resources on July 2 — the same day Texas signed off on the camp’s emergency plan for disasters.
By daybreak on July Fourth, it was clear that some children from Camp Mystic were swept away by floodwaters even as others were able to escape to safety in their pajamas.
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Wednesday, July 2:
The Texas Division of Emergency Management activated state emergency response resources anticipating the threat of flooding in parts of West and Central Texas.
On the same day, Texas inspectors signed off on Camp Mystic’s emergency planning, records obtained by the AP show.
Thursday, July 3:
10:00 a.m.: Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said Friday that county judges and city mayors were invited to be on a daily call Thursday to discuss weather forecasts. Patrick also said a regional coordinator personally reached out to officials in the area.
“The message was sent,” Patrick said. “It is up to the local counties and mayors under the law to evacuate if they feel the need.”
1:18 p.m.: The National Weather Service’s Austin/San Antonio office issued a flood watch estimating rainfall amounts of one to three inches, with isolated amounts of five to seven inches for parts of south central Texas, including Kerr County. “Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,” the alert read.
Friday, July 4:
1:14 a.m.: Citing radar, the National Weather Service issued a flash flood warning for central Kerr County until 4:15 a.m., warning that it was life threatening.
Around 3:00 a.m.: Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said he was running on the river trail around 3 or 3:30 a.m. Friday and “everything was fine.”
“Four o’clock when I left, there was no signs of it rising at that point,” Rice said during a news conference later. “This happened very quickly over a very short amount of time.”
Rice said the isolated location and the heavy rain in a short period of time made a dangerous event that was not predictable, even with radar and National Weather Service warnings.
“This is not like a tornado where you can have a siren. This is not like a hurricane where you’re planning weeks in advance,” Rice said. “It hit. It hit hard.”
Between 3 and 5 a.m.: Floodwaters begin to inundate Camp Mystic. Young campers, counselors and staff are roused from sleep and begin a desperate rush to higher ground, according to social media accounts. The accounts detail how some young girls had to climb through cabin windows. One staffer said she was on the roof with water rising toward her at 4:00 a.m.
3:30 a.m.: Erin Burgess woke up to thunder at around 3:30 a.m. Friday in her home in Bumble Bee Hills, a housing development about halfway between Hunt and Ingram. Within a half hour or so, she told the AP that the water was rushing into her house. Burgess and her 19-year-old son clung onto a tree outside for an hour before the water receded.
3:35 a.m.: The National Weather Service extended its flash flood warning for central Kerr County until 7 a.m. based on radar and automated gauges.
3:35 a.m.: A U.S. Geological Survey gauge along the Guadalupe River about five miles north of Camp Mystic and about a mile east of Hunt shows the river had reached nearly 16 feet. The river at that location is subject to minor flooding at 10 feet.
Between 4 and 5 a.m.: Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha said he was first notified about the situation from one of his sergeants.
4:03 a.m.: The National Weather Service named a flash flood emergency for south-central Kerr County, saying in all caps that it was a “particularly dangerous situation. Seek higher ground now!” Citing radar and automated rain gauges, the bulletin said low water crossings and the Guadalupe River at Hunt were flooding.
4:35 a.m.: A U,S, Geological Survey gauge along the Guadalupe River about five miles north of Camp Mystic and about a mile east of Hunt stops sending data. The last recorded river level from the instrumentation was 29.5 feet.
5:30 a.m.: Police knocked on Matthew Stone’s door in a Kerrville riverfront neighborhood, urging residents to evacuate. Stone said he had received no emergency warning on his phone. “We got no emergency alert. There was nothing,” Stone said. Then: “a pitch black wall of death.”
5:34 a.m.: The National Weather Service bulletin reported a flash flood emergency from Hunt through Kerrville and Center Point, saying “automated rain gauges indicate a large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River.”
5:38 a.m.: In a comment on a Facebook post from the Kerr County Sheriff’s Office, one woman begged for someone to help her mother-in-law who was trapped in a trailer between Hunt and Ingram.
5:52 a.m.: Minutes later, another woman commented on the same Facebook post that Bumble Bee Hills was flooded and needed help.
6:06 a.m.: The National Weather Service extended the flash flood warning until 10:00 a.m. The bulletin also said local law enforcement reported “major flooding” and water rescues along the Guadalupe River.
6:19 a.m.: Another Facebook commenter on the Kerr County Sheriff’s page said a “friend and her family are on their rooftop in Hunt, waiting for rescue.”
6:45 a.m.: A U.S. Geological Survey gauge in Kerrville shows the Guadalupe River peaks at 34.29 feet, a figure that is preliminary and subject to change. It is the third-highest river level at that location, according to the data. The record of 39 feet was set on July 2, 1932,
6:59 a.m.: Erin Burgess was surveying damage in her flooded home after the river water receded. The line of muck reached halfway up her kitchen cabinets.
7:24 a.m.: The National Weather Service advises that the flash flood emergency extends to Sisterdale.
11:29 a.m.: Camp Mystic parents receive an email noting the grounds have “sustained catastrophic level floods” and that they are without power, water and internet. Parents with a daughter not accounted for were directly contacted, the camp said.
11:30 a.m.: Local officials held the first press conference to describe the situation and response. Asked what kind of warning system went out to make sure county residents got out safely, Judge Rob Kelly, the county’s chief elected official said: “We do not have a warning system.”
When a reporter followed up to ask why camps weren’t evacuated when the camps were in harm’s way, Kelly said they didn’t know “this flood” was coming.
“We had no reason to believe that this was going to be any, anything like what’s happened here,” Kelly said. “None whatsoever.”
3:30 p.m.: Two news conferences on Friday afternoon were the first to offer an initial death toll. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said six to 10 bodies had been found so far. Around the same time, Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha reported that 13 people had died in the flooding. Patrick also announced that the whereabouts of about 23 girls attending Camp Mystic were not known.
7:11 p.m.: A state agency responsible for search and rescue operations, the Texas Game Wardens, post on Facebook that they made entry into Camp Mystic and “are evacuating the campers to safety.” Roughly two dozen campers were still missing.
9 p.m.: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signed a disaster declaration at a news conference. Leitha reported about 24 fatalities.
Source: https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/08/texas-weather-service-warning-kerr-county/