Israel-Iran: How did latest conflict start and where could it lead?

2 hours ago Share Save Lana Lam, Sofia Ferreira Santos, Jaroslav Lukiv & Nathan Williams BBC News Share Save

Footage captures exchange of attacks between Iran and Israel overnight into Sunday

Israel and Iran have continued to exchange strikes in their latest conflict, which began on Friday. There has been angry rhetoric from both sides, and US President Donald Trump is now considering whether to join Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. It started when Israel attacked nuclear and military sites in Iran, and then Iran retaliated with aerial attacks targeting Israel. More than 220 people have been killed in Israeli strikes so far, according to Iran’s health ministry, while Israel says Iranian attacks have killed 24 people.

Israel launches Operation Rising Lion, and Iran retaliates

On Thursday 12 June, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) told people in Tehran’s District 18, which includes military buildings and residential neighbourhoods, to evacuate. Hours later, the first volley of strikes was reported in Tehran at about 03:30 local time (01:00 BST) on Friday, with residential areas in the capital hit, Iranian state television reported. BBC journalists are unable to report from inside Iran due to restrictions by the country’s government, making it difficult to assess the damage caused by Israel’s offensive. Israel targeted the Natanz nuclear facility – about 225km (140 miles) south of Tehran, causing significant damage, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attack – called Operation Rising Lion – targeted “the heart” of Iran’s nuclear programme. “If not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time,” Netanyahu claimed. Iran insists its nuclear programme is peaceful. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Israel “should anticipate a severe punishment”, while its foreign minister called the strikes a “declaration of war”. Iran’s retaliation began hours later, when ballistic missile attacks were launched on on “dozens of targets, military centres and air bases” in Israel, in an operation it called True Promise 3. The IDF said about 100 missiles were launched towards Israel, and most had been intercepted by its Iron Dome system. These exchanges have continued for days. However, the scale of Iranian attacks has diminished recently, possibly indicating the impact that Israeli strikes has had on Iran’s military, reports the BBC’s Hugo Bachega.

Israel’s strikes have killed several top Iranian military figures, including Hossein Salami, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and several nuclear scientists, including Fereydoon Abbasi, former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization. Iran said civilians, including children, were also among those killed. The IDF said it launched several waves of attacks on Iranian drone and missile sites, and intercepted a barrage of missiles aimed at Tel Aviv and northern Israel. Iranian forces said they had focused attacks on Israeli security installations and have urged residents of major Israeli cities to leave. In Tehran, a news presenter for Iran’s state broadcaster fled the studio mid-broadcast when the building was struck. Iranian media said three staff members were killed. The Israeli military declared on Tuesday that it had achieved “full air superiority” over Tehran, and had destroyed a third of Iran’s missile launchers. It came after Iranian missiles struck four different areas in the northern and central Israel, killing at least eight civilians, according to the military. Iran’s health ministry said at least 224 people had been killed since Friday. Israel has reported 24 deaths in the same period. They were in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Tamra, Rishon LeZion and Bat Yam, where a 10-storey block of flats was hit.

Hugo Bachega reports from Israel’s Bat Yam, where an Iranian strike killed six people on Sunday

The US considers its next move

President Trump is considering joining Israel’s campaign to target Iranian nuclear sites, sources have told the BBC’s US partner, CBS News. Trump and Netanyahu spoke on the phone on Tuesday following a meeting of the US National Security Council. The US president had earlier taken to social media to call for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and said the US knew where Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was located, but would not kill him, “for now”. This followed reports on Sunday that Trump had rejected a plan by Israel to kill Iran’s leader. For his part, Khamenei warned Trump of “irreparable harm” if the US military intervened in the conflict. Trump’s Iran dilemma exposes bitter split in president’s circle Boarding Air Force One on Monday after leaving the G7 summit early, Trump told reporters that he was not flying back to Washington to broker a ceasefire – he wanted something “better than a ceasefire”. “A real end,” he said, which might include “a complete give-up”. Trump had previously blamed Iran for not engaging fully in talks with the US on a new deal that would place strict curbs on its nuclear programme. A new meeting between the US and Iran had been scheduled for Sunday, but was cancelled after Friday’s Israeli strikes.

Reuters Donald Trump spoke to reporters aboard Air Force One after departing early from the G7 summit in Canada

How did we get to this point?

Netanyahu said on Friday that the strikes were “a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival”. He said the operation would “continue for as many days as it takes to remove the spread”. An Israeli military official told the BBC Iran had enough nuclear material to create nuclear bombs “within days”. Iran has said it has never sought to develop a nuclear weapon and that its nuclear activities are peaceful. The strikes began as US talks over Iran’s nuclear programme, which started in April, appeared to have stalled. Trump had hoped to strike a deal to stop Tehran developing a nuclear weapon, but the latest round of talks was cancelled in light of the recent escalation in hostilities. Last year, Iran and Israel launched a number of air strikes against each other in April and October – though Israel’s strikes last year were not believed to have been as wide-ranging as its current operation.

What is Iran’s nuclear programme?

Russia fears another loss in Middle East from Iran’s conflict with Israel

17 hours ago Share Save Steve Rosenberg Russia Editor Reporting from Saint Petersburg Share Save

AFP via Getty Images While Moscow has talked up its partnership with Iran, the deal does not require Russia to come to Iran’s military aid

When Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, officials in Russia described the current escalation in the Middle East as “alarming” and “dangerous.” Still, Russian media were quick to stress the potential positives for Moscow. Among them: A rise in global oil prices which is forecast to boost Russia’s coffers

The distraction of global attention away from Russia’s war on Ukraine. “Kyiv has been forgotten” was a headline in Moskovsky Komsomolets

And if the Kremlin’s offer to mediate in the conflict was accepted, Russia could portray itself as a key player in the Middle East and as a peacemaker, despite its actions in Ukraine However, the longer Israel’s military operation goes on, the greater the realisation that Russia has much to lose from current events. “The escalation of the conflict carries serious risks and potential costs for Moscow,” wrote Russian political scientist Andrei Kortunov in business daily Kommersant on Monday.

“The fact remains that Russia was unable to prevent a mass strike by Israel on a country with which five months ago [Russia] signed a comprehensive strategic partnership. “Clearly Moscow is not prepared to go beyond political statements condemning Israel, it’s not ready to provide Iran with military assistance.” The Russian-Iranian strategic partnership deal which Vladimir Putin and President Masoud Pezeshkian signed earlier this year is not a military alliance. It does not oblige Moscow to come to Tehran’s defence. At the time, though, Moscow talked it up. In an interview with the Ria Novosti news agency, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that the agreement paid “special attention to the strengthening of co-ordination in the interests of peace and security on the regional and global levels, and the desire of Moscow and Tehran for closer co-operation on security and defence”.

Reuters Russia has relied heavily on Iran’s Shahed drones in its war in Ukraine, but now manufactures them locally

In the last six months Moscow has already lost one key ally in the Middle East, Bashar al-Assad. After the Syrian leader was deposed last December he was offered asylum in Russia. The prospect of regime change in Iran, the thought of losing another strategic partner in the region, will be of major concern to Moscow.

Iranians describe fear and sadness over Trump evacuation warning

1 day ago Share Save Azadeh Moshiri and Taraneh Fathalian BBC Pakistan correspondent and BBC Persian Share Save

Getty Images Traffic congestion has made leaving Tehran difficult as large numbers of people attempt to flee

Many Iranians have reacted with fear and dismay at Donald Trump’s instruction to “immediately evacuate Tehran”. The capital’s almost 10 million residents have now been left to decide whether to shelter in their homes – bracing themselves for what could come next – or attempt to join the heavy traffic leaving the country’s capital. President Trump made his comments just moments before cutting short his trip to the G7 in Canada, leaving many wondering if this could mean a further escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran was imminent. Many of those deciding to leave Tehran are posting images of their homes online, a poignant trend in Persian-language social media for those leaving their city behind.

Watch: Trump says “it’s safer” for Iranians to evacuate Tehran

BBC journalists are currently unable to report in Iran due to restrictions by the Iranian government. However, BBC Persian and other BBC correspondents have received messages from people affected. They have also conducted interviews and monitored social media to gather people’s stories. Many fear speaking to media could put them at risk inside Iran, so real names have not been used. Some Iranians had already taken the decision to leave well before Israel issued the first evacuation order for parts of Tehran on Monday. One resident, Arash, set off from Tehran at about 08:45 on Monday, driving through the town of Qazvin, in north-western Iran. A journey that would typically last an hour-and-a-half took him nearly five hours. “Many, especially those who live abroad, are trying to leave the country,” he said.

Social media A picture of a Tehran resident’s home posted on social media

Many more Iranians living in Tehran have decided to leave since Monday, braving traffic jams of up to 14 hours and fuel queues to flee – unsure if their homes will still be standing when they return. It is expected that even more will attempt to make the arduous journey out of Tehran following Trump’s comments. Posting on social media, one resident wrote: “I packed up keepsakes from loved ones and necessities, watered my plants, and hit the road. Leaving home is unbearably hard when you don’t know if you’ll ever return.” Another said: “My home has never felt this sad. I don’t know if I’ll ever come back.” One user posted a picture of a workspace, with a computer and headphones, and wrote: “I said goodbye to the things I worked so hard to earn… I hope they’ll still be here when I return.” Another added: “I said goodbye in silence, hoping to return one day to my beautiful safe haven.”

Social media People leaving Tehran have posted images on social media of the homes they fear they will not return to

‘Where would I go?’

Others in Iran’s largest city feel the evacuation orders are simply impossible to follow. Narges has decided to stay in Tehran, despite becoming increasingly afraid. “Ever since Trump urged people to leave last night, it seems like many more are fleeing.” She says the roads are “overflowing” and “the traffic is a nightmare”. Narges sees no point in trying to leave and being trapped on the road. Israel’s strikes in Tehran on Iran’s state broadcaster on Monday served as a reminder of the risk she is taking. She lives near the headquarters. “It was terrifying, and so close,” she said. Some residents have decided to stay put because of elderly parents, young children, pets, medical needs, or simply lack of options. One woman told BBC Persian she was pregnant and had a young daughter: “Everything I’ve built is here… where would I go?” Another said she was single and did not want to risk undertaking the 800km journey to her family in Shiraz alone. And a woman who said she was 40 years old and had two small children told the BBC she was “not going anywhere”. “If everything is going to be ruined, then I’d rather my kids and I go with our home – because I don’t have the strength to start over again.”

EPA Some Israeli air strikes have hit residential areas

Trump’s evacuation comments in the early hours of Tuesday were reportedly followed by explosions and heavy air defence fire in Tehran. Iran launched two waves of missiles in response to the Israeli attacks, setting off air raid alerts in parts of central and northern Israel. Boarding Air Force One after leaving the G7, Trump told reporters that he wasn’t flying back to Washington just to broker a ceasefire – he wanted something “better than a ceasefire”. “A real end,” he said, which might include “a complete give-up”. Israel launched a surprise attack on nuclear infrastructure, scientists and military commanders on Friday last week. Israel’s strikes on Tehran have killed at least 224 people, according to Iranian state media. Tehran’s retaliatory missile strikes against Israeli cities have claimed at least 24 lives, Israeli officials say. Civilians on both sides have been killed in the exchange of strikes, with both Iran and Israel accusing each other of targeting residential areas.

‘What should we do?’ Seeking clarity in Tehran as Israeli jets fly overhead

Thousands of people are fleeing Tehran as Israel continues with its air strikes

Fear and stress are evident in my sister’s voice in Tehran, despite the crackling, intermittent WhatsApp connection that – miraculously – still works from time to time.

Clarity is what she wants from me, knowing I am a journalist with the BBC in London.

“What is going to happen? What should we do?” she asks. US President Donald Trump has said people in Tehran should evacuate. “Is he serious?”

Since Thursday night, Tehran has come under repeated bombardment by Israeli planes, which seem to be flying freely across the skies of the capital. They are met by anti-aircraft fire – which is mostly ineffective.

From her window on the upper floors of a high-rise building, my sister can clearly see the action, which does little to calm her nerves.

The Israeli military has ordered people in her district – stretching for several kilometres in all directions – to evacuate. But she has chosen to stay.

She told me that, as far as she knew, there were no military-type targets near her apartment block.

Still, she was concerned about a nearby commercial unit – owned, she believed, by the Revolutionary Guards – which might be a target. She had no idea what the company actually did.

Many people do not know who their neighbours are or whether military targets are nearby, since much of the Revolutionary Guards’ activity is conducted secretly and from hidden locations.

US moves 30 jets as Iran attack speculation grows

1 hour ago Share Save Matt Murphy, Thomas Spencer & Alex Murray BBC Verify Share Save

Getty Images

At least 30 US military planes have been moved from bases in America to Europe over the past three days, flight tracking data reviewed by BBC Verify has shown. The planes in question are all US military tanker aircraft used to re-fuel fighter jets and bombers. According to Flightradar24, at least seven of these – all KC-135s – stopped off in US airbases in Spain, Scotland and England. The flights come as Israel and Iran continue to exchange strikes, after Israel launched an operation on Friday that it said was to destroy Tehran’s nuclear programme. It is unclear whether the US movements are directly connected to the conflict, but one expert told BBC Verify that the tanker aircraft flights were “highly unusual”.

Justin Bronk, a senior analyst with the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) think tank, said that the deployments were “highly suggestive” that the US was putting in place contingency plans to “support intensive combat operations” in the region in the coming weeks. The seven jets tracked by BBC Verify have since travelled on and according to flight tracking data could be seen flying east of Sicily as of Tuesday afternoon. Six had no stated destination – one landed on the Greek island of Crete. But the former head of Irish Defence Forces, Vice-Admiral Mark Mellett, said that the movements could be part of a broader policy of “strategic ambiguity” that could be attempting to influence Iran to make concessions in talks over its nuclear programme. Israel initially launched an attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure on Friday, just a day after President Donald Trump’s deadline to Iran to strike a deal on suspending its nuclear programme expired. The jet movements come amid reports that the US has also moved an aircraft carrier – the USS Nimitz, from the South China Sea towards the Middle East. The Reuters news agency reported that a planned event involving the ship in Vietnam was cancelled after what the US embassy in Hanoi called an “emergent operational requirement”. MarineTraffic, a ship-tracking website, showed that the USS Nimitz’s last location was in the Malacca Strait heading towards Singapore early on Tuesday. The Nimitz carries a contingent of fighter jets and is escorted by several guided missile destroyers.

The US has also moved F-16, F-22 and F-35 fighter jets to bases in the Middle East, three defence officials told Reuters on Tuesday. The tanker planes moved to Europe over the past several days can be used to re-fuel these jets. Earlier on Tuesday, Vice-President JD Vance suggested that the US could intervene to support Israel’s campaign, writing on social media that Trump “may decide he needs to take further action” to end Iran’s nuclear programme. Tehran is believed to run two principal underground enrichment sites. Natanz has already been hit by Israel, and Fordo is buried deep within a mountain complex near the city of Qom. To penetrate the facility, the US would likely have to use GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) munitions, two senior Western military officers told BBC Verify. MOPs are huge, 30,000lb (13,600kg) bombs also known as “bunker busters”.

The bomb is the only conventional weapon of its kind that is thought to be capable of breaching up to 200ft (60m) of concrete. Only the B-2 stealth bomber can carry the munitions. Recently, the US has had a squadron of B-2 bombers at its base on the island of Diego Garcia. While the island is some 2,400 miles from Iran’s southern coastline, their location on Diego Garcia would put them well within striking range of Iran. “You would be able to maintain a sustained operation from [Diego Garcia] far more efficiently,” Air Marshall Greg Bagwell – a former RAF deputy operations chief – told BBC Verify. “You could literally have them round the clock operating.” Satellite images first showed B-2 bombers had been stationed on Diego Garcia at the end of March, but the most recent imagery from the island no longer shows the bombers present.

How one US weapon could change the course of the Israel-Iran conflict