WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland is set to hold a presidential runoff election on Sunday, with a right-wing nationalist and a pro-European liberal running neck-and-neck in a race that could shape the future of one of NATO’s and the European Union’s most strategically important member states.

The vote comes amid heightened regional tensions driven by Russia’s war in neighboring Ukraine, security concerns across Europe and internal debates about the rule of law.

The winner will replace conservative incumbent Andrzej Duda, whose second term expires this summer. Most political power in Poland lies with a government led by a prime minister and parliament, but the president holds the power to veto laws and influences foreign policy.

Sunday’s vote follows a first round on May 18, in which Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski won 31.36% of the vote and Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian, earned 29.54%. Eleven other candidates were eliminated.

Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian with no political experience who is not even a party member, was tapped by Law and Justice as part of a push for a fresh start.

Law and Justice governed Poland from 2015 to 2023, when it lost power to a centrist coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Nawrocki currently heads the Institute of National Remembrance, which embraces nationalist historical narratives. He led efforts to topple monuments to the Soviet Red Army in Poland. Russia responded by putting him on a wanted list, according to Polish media reports.

Nawrocki’s supporters describe him as the embodiment of traditional, patriotic values. Many oppose abortion and LGBTQ+ visibility and say Nawrocki reflects the traditional values they grew up with.

He is also the preferred favorite of Trump, with the conservative group CPAC holding its first meeting in Poland on Tuesday to give him a boost. Kristi Noem, the U.S. Homeland Security Secretary and a prominent Trump ally, strongly praised him and urged Poles to give him their vote.

A common refrain from his supporters is that Nawrocki will restore “normality,” as they believe Trump has done. U.S. flags appear at his rallies.

Nawrocki performed better in the first round than expected, an indication he was underestimated in the polling. But his quick political rise has not been without controversy, with reports of links to underworld figures whom he met while boxing or working as a hotel security guard in the past.

Nawrocki has also been linked to a scandal involving the acquisition of a Gdansk apartment from an elderly pensioner named Jerzy. Allegations suggest Nawrocki promised to care for Jerzy in return but failed to fulfill the commitment, leading the man to end up in a publicly funded retirement home.

His shifting explanations have raised questions about his transparency and credibility. After the scandal erupted he donated the apartment to a charity.

It recently emerged that Nawrocki took part in a 2009 Gdansk hooligan brawl involving about 140 rival soccer fans, some later convicted of crimes. Nawrocki described the fight as a form of “noble” combat.

His behavior during a presidential debate on Friday also generated a lot of discussion. At one point during the debate, as Trzaskowski spoke, Nawrocki put something in his mouth. He later said it was a nicotine pouch.

His critics say all of these things make him unfit to represent Poland as the head of state. His supporters dismiss the allegations as politically motivated, and it is not clear if any of the allegations will hurt him.

Trzaskowski, 53, is Warsaw’s mayor and a close ally of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. A deputy leader of the pro-EU Civic Platform, he has been prominent in national politics for years. This is his second presidential bid after narrowly losing to Duda in 2020.

Supporters credit him with modernizing Warsaw through infrastructure, public transit expansion and cultural investments. He is widely seen as pro-European, pragmatic and focused on aligning Poland more closely with EU norms, especially on democratic governance and judicial independence.

Fluent in several foreign languages including English and French, he is praised by supporters but mocked by opponents, who see those skills as a sign of elitism and taunt him with the nickname “Bonjour” at right-wing rallies.

His right-wing critics accusing him of being willing to sell out Poland’s sovereignty to the EU and embracing green economic policies, which they believe are harmful to Poland’s traditional reliance on coal as an energy source.

His open support for LGBTQ+ rights, including appearances at Pride parades, has made him a polarizing figure in conservative and rural areas. His conservative critics feel he is out of touch with traditional Polish values and say his administration has mismanaged aspects of Warsaw’s real estate and budget.

Voter fatigue is another challenge. Some centrist and progressive voters have expressed disappointment with the Tusk government’s failure to deliver on key promises, particularly on easing Poland’s near-total abortion ban.

Trzaskowski has sought to reinvigorate that base, leading a major Warsaw rally on Sunday that aimed to mobilize voters.

He has framed the election as a choice between a European future and authoritarian nationalism. His campaign stresses democratic institutions, EU cooperation and women’s rights, messages that resonate more in cities than in rural areas.

The liberal presidential candidate Rafal Trzaskowski, front center, waves as he and supporters of take part in a march one week ahead of a decisive presidential election in Warsaw, Poland on Sunday, May 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

Conservative presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, right, waves as he takes part in a march one week ahead of a decisive election in Warsaw Poland on Sunday, May 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

This combination of photos shows Rafal Trzaskowski, left, in Warsaw, Friday, May 9, 2025, and Karol Nawrocki, right, in Warsaw, Poland, Tuesday, May 20, 2025 (AP Photos/Czarek Sokolowski, File)

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poles began voting Sunday in a decisive presidential runoff that could set the course for the nation’s political future and its relations with the European Union.

The contest pits Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, a liberal pro-EU figure, against Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party.

The outcome will determine whether Poland continues along a nationalist path or pivots more decisively toward liberal democratic norms. With conservative President Andrzej Duda completing his second and final term, the new president will have significant influence over whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist government can fulfill its centrist agenda, given the presidential power to veto laws.

Voting began at 7 a.m. local time and will end at 9 p.m., when an Ipsos exit poll is expected. Final results are likely to be announced Monday. The runoff follows a tightly contested first round on May 18, in which Trzaskowski won just over 31% and Nawrocki nearly 30%, eliminating 11 other candidates.

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The campaign has highlighted stark ideological divides. Trzaskowski, 53, has promised to restore judicial independence, ease abortion restrictions, and promote constructive ties with European partners. Nawrocki, 42, has positioned himself as a defender of traditional Polish values, skeptical of the EU, and aligned with U.S. conservatives, including President Donald Trump.

Nawrocki’s candidacy has been clouded by allegations of past connections to criminal figures and participation in a violent street battle. He denies the criminal links but acknowledges having taken part in “noble” fights. The revelations have not appeared to dent his support among right-wing voters, many of whom see the allegations as politically motivated.

Amid rising security fears over Russia’s war in neighboring Ukraine, both candidates support aid to Kyiv, though Nawrocki opposes NATO membership for Ukraine, while Trzaskowski supports it in the future.

Nawrocki’s campaign has echoed themes popular on the American right, including an emphasis on traditional values. His supporters feel that Trzaskowski, with his pro-EU views, would hand over control of key Polish affairs to larger European powers like France and Germany.

Many European centrists are rooting for Trzaskowski, seeing in him someone who would defend democratic values under pressure from authoritarian forces across the globe.

Vanessa Gera, The Associated Press

WARSAW: Poland is set to hold a presidential runoff election on Sunday between two candidates offering starkly different visions for the country’s future.

The winner will succeed President Andrzej Duda, a conservative who is finishing his second and final term.

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The outcome will determine whether Poland embraces a nationalist populist trajectory or pivots more fully toward liberal, pro-European policies.

An exit poll by Ipsos will be released when polls close on Sunday at 9 pm local time, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Final results are expected on Monday.

Whoever wins can be expected to either help or hinder the agenda of the centrist government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, thanks to the presidential power to veto laws.

An unpredictable vote at a time of tensions

The vote comes amid heightened regional tensions driven by Russia’s war in neighbouring Ukraine, security concerns across Europe and internal debates about the rule of law.

It follows a first round on May 18, in which Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski won more than 31% of the vote and Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian, earned nearly 30%. Eleven other candidates were eliminated.

Opinion polls show the two men running neck and neck.

Other factors add to the unpredictability. Nawrocki did much better in the first round than surveys had predicted, indicating that his strength was underestimated. On the other hand, large numbers of Poles abroad have registered to vote in the second round, which could help Trzaskowski.

The candidates

Nawrocki is a 42-year-old historian who was tapped as by the national conservative Law and Justice party despite a lack of political experience or party membership.

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But this is seen as acting in his favor, as the party, which governed for 2015-2023, seeks to refresh its image before a parliamentary election in 2027.

Nawrocki’s supporters describe him as the embodiment of traditional, patriotic Polish values. They believe U.S. President Donald Trump’s support for him will strengthen Poland’s ties with the United States and make the country safer.

Trzaskowski, 53, is Warsaw’s mayor and a close ally of Tusk.

A deputy leader of Civic Platform, a pro-European Union party, he has been prominent in national politics for years. This is his second presidential bid after narrowly losing to Duda in 2020.

Supporters credit him with modernizing Warsaw through infrastructure, public transit expansion and cultural investments. He is widely seen as pragmatic and focused on strengthening ties with other European nations.

A global ideological war

Nawrocki recently received a boost from Trump and other US conservatives, who see the Polish election as part of a global battle between liberal and populist right-wing forces.

His campaign has echoed themes popular on the American right, including skepticism toward EU bureaucracy and emphasis on Christian identity. His supporters feel that Trzaskowski, with his pro-EU views, would hand over control of key Polish issues to Paris and Berlin.

Nawrocki also has been endorsed by the Trump administration and conservative Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

Many European centrists are rooting for Trzaskowski, seeing in him someone who would defend democracy as it faces pressure from authoritarian forces across the globe.

He has received the support of new centrist Romanian President Nicusor Dan – who recently defeated a far-right nationalist.

Nawrocki’s scandals

Nawrocki has faced a number of scandals over the past months, but it’s not clear that they are hurting him. In fact, they might have the opposite effect. Many right-wing voters don’t believe the allegations and accuse the media of using its power to hurt him, creating what appears to be a rallying effect around him.

Nawrocki himself has acknowledged that he took part in an organized brawl, including football hooligans in 2009. A former boxer, he said he has taken part in various forms of “noble male battle” in his life.

Polish media have also reported on his connections to gangsters and the world of prostitution.

T

usk accused Law and Justice party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski of tapping Nawrocki despite questions about his past.

“You knew about everything, Jaroslaw. About the connections with the gangsters, about fixing girls,'” Tusk wrote on X. “The entire responsibility for this catastrophe falls on you!”

The key issues at stake

1. Security and war in Ukraine: With Russia’s war in Ukraine in its fourth year, Polish voters are acutely attuned to issues of regional security. Both candidates support continued backing for Ukraine, but to different degrees. Nawrocki believes that Ukraine should never join NATO, while Trzaskowski believes Ukraine should be allowed to join one day when the current war is over.

2. Rule of law and democracy: Trzaskowski has pledged to support the restoration of judicial independence and repair relations with the EU, which viewed changes by Law and Justice as anti-democratic. Tusk has tried to change some legislation, but has faced resistance from the outgoing president, Duda. Nawrocki, while less outspoken than his party patrons, is seen as likely to preserve Law and Justice’s changes that politicized the courts.

3. Women’s rights: Abortion remains a divisive issue in Poland, especially after a near-total ban was imposed under Law and Justice. Trzaskowski supports loosening restrictions and has backed proposals to legalize abortion up to 12 weeks. Nawrocki opposes any liberalisation and has campaigned as a defender of traditional conservative values.

Poles rally behind competing candidates and visions as presidential runoff nears (AP)

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WARSAW: Poland – Poles traveled from across the country to join dueling patriotic marches in Warsaw on Sunday, led by the two men vying for the presidency in a June 1 runoff election expected to be both close and consequential for the nation’s future.At the head of one march is Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, a liberal urbanite who supports abortion rights and LGBTQ+ inclusion. A close political ally of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, he is backed by Tusk’s pro-European Civic Coalition, which has led a centrist coalition government since late 2023.Trzaskowski previously ran for president in 2020, narrowly losing to incumbent Andrzej Duda, whose second and final five-year term ends this summer.Opposite him is Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian backed by the national conservative Law and Justice party, which governed Poland from 2015 to 2023. He heads the state-backed Institute of National Remembrance, which under Law and Justice became a vehicle for nationalist historical narratives.Earlier this month, the White House released photos of Nawrocki and U.S. President Donald Trump meeting in the Oval Office – a tacit but unmistakable show of Trump’s support.Recently, allegations surfaced that Nawrocki swindled an elderly man out of an apartment – but his supporters in Warsaw on Sunday said they didn’t believe the allegations.Many of those who joined Sunday’s marches had traveled from across Poland, a country of nearly 38 million, not just to support a candidate but to rally behind sharply divergent visions for the nation’s future.”It’s high time for honesty to win. It’s high time for integrity to win. It’s high time for justice to win,” Trzaskowski told his supporters at the start of his march. “This is what these elections are about. We have literally the last few days ahead of us. We need full determination, every vote is needed.”The runoff follows a first-round vote on May 18 that narrowed the initial field of 13 candidates to Trzaskowski and Nawrocki. Recent polls show them running neck-and-neck, within the margin of error, making the outcome impossible to predict.Both men are now courting voters who backed the hard-right libertarian Sławomir Mentzen, who won nearly 15% in the first round. Known for his nationalist rhetoric and pro-market views, Mentzen had a strong presence on TikTok and received 35% of the vote among 18- to 29-year-olds, according to an Ipsos exit poll.Nawrocki supporters told The Associated Press ahead of the march that they saw him as the embodiment of the conservative, patriotic values they grew up with. They voiced opposition to abortion and LGBTQ+ rights, and said Nawrocki – like Trump – would restore what many called “normality.”Trzaskowski supporters countered that their candidate would better protect the country’s interests by strengthening ties with European partners such as France and Germany. In their view, those alliances are vital to Poland’s security, especially in the face of Russia’s war in Ukraine and fears that a victorious Russia could seek to reassert control over parts of Central and Eastern Europe.During its eight years in power, Law and Justice was accused by the European Union of undermining democratic norms, particularly judicial independence and press freedom. Trzaskowski has pledged to support Tusk’s efforts to restore the independence of Poland’s judiciary – something that the conservative President Duda has stymied.Romanian President-elect Nicusor Dan, a pro-EU centrist who pulled off an upset in Romania’s presidential election to beat out a hard-right nationalist, traveled to Warsaw, meeting with Tusk and joining the march.While Law and Justice turned state-funded media into instruments of political propaganda, critics say Tusk’s government has also politicized public broadcasting – albeit in a less overt and aggressive fashion.