Bolivians will go to the polls on Aug. 17 to vote for a new president, vice president and 166 combined members of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies.

Polls suggest that conservative candidates Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga and Samuel Doria Medina have the best chance of winning, with a focus on economic recovery rather than the environment.

Their policies will determine the future of the lithium industry, illegal gold mining and forest loss in the Amazon and Chiquitania. See All Key Ideas

Bolivians will go to the polls on Aug. 17 to vote for a new president, vice president and 166 combined members of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. When it comes to environmental policies, the country has many important decisions to make about climate change commitments, development of the lithium industry, illegal gold mining, and forest loss in the Amazon Rainforest and Chiquitania savanna. For the most part, the candidates have ambiguous policies on these topics, or haven’t addressed them at all, making for an uncertain future for Bolivia’s natural ecosystems.

For the first time in more than a decade, the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) party doesn’t have a leading presidential candidate. President Luis Arce withdrew from the race in May after his mentor and former president Evo Morales, the founder of MAS, announced his plans to run with a new party. A court ruled Morales ineligible after already serving three terms, but his decision still split the left-leaning rural base and undermined Arce’s candidacy.

Arce has fought for clean water and tried to protect local communities from exploitation by foreign lithium investors. But under his watch, illegal gold mining and fires — many of them caused by agriculture — have torn through the country’s forests, which cover more than half of its total surface area. Last year, there was 476,030 hectares (1.2 million acres) of deforestation in Bolivia, according to Global Forest Watch.

Arce’s government also arguably led the country into an economic crisis, characterized by slow growth, rising inflation and commodity shortages, most notably of natural gas. The economy is a top issue for Bolivian voters, and presidential candidates have focused on it far more than on the environment.

Of the leading candidates, only former president Jorge Quiroga has a robust environmental agenda. Better known as Tuto, he served as vice president from 1997 to 2001, and then served out the final year of Hugo Banzer Suárez’s presidency in 2001 and 2002 following a cancer diagnosis.

Tuto has made two unsuccessful runs for president since then, in 2005 and 2014, both times losing to Morales. This time around, he’s running with the conservative Alianza Libre coalition. With MAS sidelined for the first time in years, his candidacy has gained much more traction, currently tied for the lead in many polls.

Tuto’s government plan includes improving environmental disaster monitoring for a country routinely hit by forest fires, droughts, mudslides and flooding. The monitoring would also include preemptive measures to address climate change impacts, though the plan doesn’t say what those measures would be.

The plan also lists carbon credits, green bonds and incentives for reforestation, as well as mandatory environmental education in the national curriculum.

With the economy struggling, the left has lost the support of many of Bolivia’s Indigenous groups, which together comprise more than 60% of the population. Tuto has campaigned for their support with plans to promote demarcating ancestral territory and involving them more in the management of protected areas.

He also pledged to protect communities from exploitation by the lithium industry, which has been known to cause water shortages during the intensive chemical treatment process. Communities are also pushing for a larger cut of the royalties generated from lithium, arguing that they’ve lived near the deposits for generations and deserve to feel the benefits of the industry.

Tuto’s government plan involves banning the extraction of all nonrenewable resources in protected areas. That means eliminating illegal gold mining and attracting private investors willing to submit to new, stricter environmental oversight. Illegal gold mining continues to be one of the country’s fiercest conservation challenges, with powerful cooperatives ignoring permits and controlling huge sections of protected areas like Madidi National Park.

Tuto wants to place a similar ban on building roads in protected areas, but he also envisions Bolivia as a logistics hub for South America, with a clean energy grid and new roads and rail lines. Many projects already underway — including the Villa Tunari–San Ignacio de Moxos Highway — could pass through the same protected areas where he wants to ban construction.

Candidates need to win a majority of votes or gain at least 40% with a 10-point lead to take the presidency outright. If that doesn’t happen, there will be a runoff in October between the top two candidates. Right now, polls show that Tuto is virtually tied with Samuel Doria Medina, of the Alianza Unidad, another conservative coalition.

An entrepreneur, cement magnate and presidential candidate in 2009 and 2014, Doria Medina presented a 100-day plan that includes policies for economic recovery — such as suspending fuel subsidies and cutting public spending — but says nothing about climate change or protected areas.

His interest in opening up more foreign direct investment in lithium within the first 100 days could become a point of tension with many local and Indigenous communities due to their concern about water shortages and royalties.

On social media, he said his government will plant 10 million trees annually and jail for 30 years anyone caught burning down the rainforest. Protected areas and Indigenous territory will be “really protected,” his social media post said, without explaining what actions his government will take to make it happen.

He also promised to provide mining cooperatives with “technology,” so they don’t have to use mercury that pollutes rivers and streams. He didn’t specify what kind of technology.

At an agricultural forum hosted by the Eastern Agricultural Chamber, an agribusiness advocacy group, Doria Medina said that if he has to choose between prioritizing agricultural production or conservation of the country’s forests, he would choose agricultural production. “That’s the strategy for the country,” he said.

Besides Tuto and Doria Medina, no other candidate comes close to 20% in most polls. Center-right Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira has around 8%, and former Cochabamba mayor Manfred Reyes Villa, also center-right, has around 7%. The only left-wing candidate with notable support is Senate president Andrónico Rodríguez, of Alianza Popular, with around 5%. A former coca farmer and ally of Evo Morales, he’s taken the blame for many of the mistakes of previous MAS governments, making for a difficult campaign.

Rodríguez says he wants to transition the country away from fossil fuels by constructing solar parks and hydroelectric dams, while promoting the use of electric vehicles. He says he also wants to overhaul mining policies for better efficiency and oversight.

In any other election year when MAS held sway over the country, his ideas might have gained more traction. But this time around, polls suggest that a conservative candidate — either Tuto or Doria Medina — will likely win the presidency. As they lead the country out of economic crisis, their policies will determine the fate of Bolivia’s natural ecosystems and the role of lithium in the global energy transition.

Banner image: Aymara Indigenous people gather for a ceremony to honor the Virgin of the Litanies on the outskirts of Viacha, Bolivia. (AP Photo/Juan Karita)

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